College Basketball Preview, 2009-2010

Here we go, 2009-10 basketball season preview. I’ll take a look at the six power conferences, a few of the mid-majors I expect to make some noise, and we’ll wrap it all up with the Top 25. Teams with a * next to their names I’ve projected to make the NCAA tournament. The Maryland preview is below this post, but we’ll talk about the Terps more when they get to Maui.

ACC
Projected Standings

1. North Carolina*
2. Georgia Tech*
3. Duke*
4. Maryland*
5. Clemson*
6. Wake Forest*
7. Boston College
8. Miami
9. Florida State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Virginia
12. NC State

Notes: North Carolina still gets the nod because they are still immensely talented. Will they be as good as last season? Of course not. But they are the best team in the ACC. Georgia Tech was going to be good before they added freshman Derrick Favors to the mix. Paul Hewitt finally gets a team with the majority of decent players jumping to the NBA or Europe. Duke has questions in the backcourt AND major questions about it’s depth. It appears 2010-11 may be a potentially good year for them, but they’ll be also-rans this season. On the other hand, Maryland’s backcourt is great, but too many frontcourt issues remain to put them higher than 4th. Clemson returns Trevor Booker, and adds two terrific freshmen in Milton Jennings and Noel Johnson. However, too much experience was lost at the guard position. Wake Forest’s Al-Farouq Aminu should be ACC player of the year as long as the media morons don’t vote for Duke White Stiff. Teams 1-6 could really finish in several orders, but that’s clearly the top half of the conference. Boston College, Miami and Florida State lost Tyrese Rice, Jack McClinton and Toney Douglas respectively. I have a feeling that BC may be better without Rice, but that remains to be seen. The Tony Bennett hiring was an awful move by Virginia. Not sure how he is going to be able to recruit in this area with his style of play. And believe it or not, NC State may actually be worse than last season. Sidney Lowe has some interesting players coming in next year, but I doubt he’ll be around to coach them.

Big East
Projected Standings

1. Villanova*
2. Connecticut*
3. West Virginia*
4. Louisville*
5. Notre Dame*
6. Cincinnati*
7. Georgetown*
8. Syracuse
9. Pittsburgh
10. Marquette
11. Seton Hall
12. Providence
13. St. John’s
14. South Florida
15. Rutgers
16. DePaul

Notes: The Big East prepares to take three giant steps backwards this season (even though they didn’t place a team in the finals last year), as there are only three to four teams to really watch this season. Villanova is legit. Three top scorers return along with a very highly ranked recruiting class. Of course, having Scottie Reynolds doesn’t hurt. Getting Jerome Dyson healthy will be the key for UConn, despite losing a lot. They just reload under that criminal Jim Calhoun. Bob Huggins has a history of overachieving with bad rosters (like last season), but underachieving with good ones (ie: his entire career at Cincinnati). He may have the best team in this conference, but they won’t play like it. Louisville could be the 2nd place team in this conference, but there have been an awful lot of distractions (Pitino extortion case, several players getting arrested, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams to the NBA). Luke Harangody will help Notre Dame bounce back. Cincinnati with Lance Stephenson, if he manages to stay eligible all year, should be a darkhorse. Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh are either incomplete teams (The Orange…LeMoyne says hi), poorly coached teams (The Hoyas) or both (The Panthers). Two of them will not make it. Pittsburgh lost everyone from last year’s team, they will assuredly be playing in the NIT. The rest of the conference is pretty bad. A real darkhorse could be South Florida, with Stan Heath in charge and Gus Gilchrist manning the post. Yes, that’s the same Gilchrist who should be wearing Maryland red and black. USF should be sure to send Debbie Yow a thank you card.

Big Ten
Projected Standings

1. Purdue*
2. Michigan State*
3. Ohio State*
4. Illinois*
5. Michigan*
6. Minnesota
7. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
9. Northwestern
10. Iowa
11. Indiana

Notes: Everyone remembers the finish of Michigan State’s 2008-09 season. Everyone forgets that Michigan State struggled most of the season with inconsistent offense and injuries. Purdue, in my opinion, was the better team last year. I think they will be the better team again. Both teams are definitely Top 10 squads, but I’ll give the Boilers the edge. As for the other nine teams, they aren’t going to be as good as everyone thinks. Let’s end all this babble about the Big Ten being the best basketball conference this season. They are still squarely behind the ACC, Big East and Big XII. Ohio State can score, so they’ll be able to squeeze at least 10 wins out of this conference. Illinois is young, will be respectable this season, but very scary next year. Michigan has two players to speak of with Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. They too were an average team until mid-March. Tubby Smith can’t keep enough of his Gophers eligible or out of prison. Look for a promising year to be stopped before it starts in Minneapolis. Wisconsin won’t be good, which is great for the rest of the country because we won’t have to watch 44-42 basketball games and won’t have to see how frightening Bo Ryan looks. Penn State had their chance last season. Northwestern would be good if they were in the Pac-10 or SEC. Iowa and Indiana are still in major rebuilding mode.

Big XII
Projected Standings

North
Kansas (2)*
Kansas State (5)*
Missouri (7)*
Iowa State (9)
Colorado (11)
Nebraska (12)

South
Texas (1)*
Oklahoma (3)*
Oklahoma State (4)*
Texas A&M (6)*
Baylor (8)
Texas Tech (10)

Notes: Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your college basketball big dog for the season. Instead of taking trendy Kansas at #1 in the conference and in the nation, I’m going to take a better and deeper Texas team. When Jai Lucas is eligible to play in the second semester, the Longhorns are going to be at least 10-deep. Plus, there hasn’t been any drama in the offseason in Austin. The same can’t be said about Lawrence. And while Bill Self is a better coach than Rick Barnes, Barnes is going to have a real tough time screwing this one up. The rest of the conference is pretty good as well. I have them listed for seven tournament bids, but it may be less if the top 3-4 teams are so much better than the rest of the conference, that they just beat up on everyone. OU lost the Griffin brothers, but Willie Warren is the best player in the conference. Oklahoma State loses Byron Eaton, but returns the rest of the team. Kansas State, Texas A&M and Missouri have various talented pieces, but each is missing a third scoring option and depth. Baylor might challenge for a tournament bid in a lesser conference, but not the Big XII in 2010. Iowa State and Texas Tech should at least be competitive. Colorado and Nebraska will not be.

Pac-10
Projected Standings

1. Washington*
2. UCLA*
3. California*
4. Arizona*
5. Oregon
6. Arizona State
7. Oregon State
8. Washington State
9. Southern Cal
10. Stanford

Notes: There are a lot of people writing off just about every team west of the Great Plains this season. I wouldn’t do that. While the Pac-10 is a shell of what it was two years ago, and even last season, there are still a couple of teams here that could make some noise. This conference may be way down this year, don’t think we’ll be seeing a 2008-09 version of the SEC. Washington has the great backcourt led by aptly named Isaiah Thomas. UCLA lost a lot in the offseason, but Ben Howland has recreated the Bruins into a monster. With a couple of more great recruiting classes, and a down conference, UCLA should be right in the thick of things. California is getting a lot of hype, since they are returning the majority of their team. But that was the same team that struggled in February and March, and didn’t have a decent frontcourt. Many are saying Arizona won’t be tournament ready with the loss of Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. I think the hiring of Sean Miller will steady a program that has been in flux at the coaching position for the last two seasons. Oregon remains one of two dark horses, the other one coming from in-state rival Oregon State. Tajuan Porter is still in Eugene, but if the Ducks don’t get back to the dance, how long with Ernie Kent be there? The Beavers are on the other end of the spectrum. Craig Robinson has overachieved, but his team is young and may need another year before they seriously challenge in this conference. Washington State lost most of its talent and its coach. USC is a complete mess right now. Not sure why Kevin O’Neil decided to take the Trojans job, but this could be a career killer for him if he can’t keep the program afloat and if the NCAA comes down hard on them. Johnny Dawkins is just the latest Ratface assistant to prove he’s not a great head coach, following in the footsteps of Tommy Amaker, Quinn Snyder and Mike Brey. The Cardinal are going to be dreadful this season, and there is no hope for recovery in sight.

SEC
Projected Standings

East
Kentucky (1)*
Tennessee (2)*
Vanderbilt (4)*
South Carolina (5)*
Florida (8)
Georgia (12)

West
Mississippi State (3)*
Alabama (6)*
Mississippi (7)
LSU (9)
Arkansas (10)
Auburn (11)

Notes: John Calipari and Kentucky are getting all the attention, but there is more to like in the SEC than the Wildcats. True, Kentucky appears to be back on paper. However, I don’t think they can be considered a Top 5 team just yet. Tennessee could easily surprise them and take this conference, since there is more experience in Knoxville than in Lexington. Mississippi State is the class of the Western Division, even without Renardo Sidney. They still have Jarvis Varnado and a solid starting five in Starksville, and there isn’t another standout team in their division to challenge them. Vanderbilt and South Carolina should both have an easy time locking up an NCAA bid. They just can’t afford to slip up against Florida or Georgia. The Commodores are once again playing darkhorse with A.J. Ogilvy still suiting up for Kevin Stallings. Alabama won the Anthony Grant sweepstakes, and Grant should inherit a good enough roster to slide the Tide into one of the last NCAA tournament spots. Ole Miss could make some noise as long as their head coach stays out of trouble. Billy Donovan knows he has at least two more seasons before fans starting getting restless at Florida…he may have even longer if the football team continues to win and distract people. LSU will take a temporary step back this season. The other three teams are going to struggle to post 4-5 wins in this conference.

Mid-majors

The obvious ones
Butler
Dayton
Gonzaga
Xavier
Siena
BYU

Notes: With the exception of Xavier, each of these teams is the class of their conferences. Many have talked about Butler and Dayton making a serious run to the Elite 8…or further. I think that talk is WAY too premature. Butler looks like a Sweet 16 caliber team, but will they ever score enough points to win consistently against the big boy teams? Dayton can score, so I think they may actually be the best mid-major out there this season with Chris Wright returning. Xavier will keep the heat up on Dayton in the A-10. Gonzaga loses just about their entire team, but they’ll cruise to the WCC title once again. Siena returns the majority their team that has won a NCAA tournament game each of the last two years. The Mountain West lost a lot of talent, so that pretty much opens the conference up to BYU, with the majority of the Mormons returning to Provo.

The not so obvious ones
Tulsa
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
Nevada

Notes: I really love Tulsa. I talked about Jerome Jordan last season at this time, and he didn’t disappoint. Add in dynamic guard Ben Uzoh and the downfall of Memphis, it appears to be Tulsa’s time to shine in C-USA. Western Kentucky continues to be the North Carolina of the Sun Belt. They lose Orlando Mendez-Valdez, so A.J. Slaughter will step up in his place. This team could repeat their Sweet 16 visit from two seasons ago. The CAA usually cannibalizes itself, but this year should be different. Blaine Taylor and ODU are the clear favorites, and could be that dreaded 11-12 seed in the NCAA tournament. And, while most experts are ready to hand over the WAC to Utah State again, I think the loss of Gary Wilkinson will be too much for them to overcome. Nevada gets it done in the WAC, and wins a game in the NCAA tournament this season…even with a new coaching regime in Reno.

Under the radar Mid-majors
San Diego State
Illinois State
Houston
Troy
La Salle

Notes: If not for an awful last two weeks of the season, San Diego State would have made the NCAA tournament last season. And while the Aztecs are losing three starters from that team, they have a bevy of transfer students from big programs waiting to join the roster. Plus, the Mountain West should be good enough for three bids, so SDSU should step up behind BYU and UNLV. The same goes for the Atlantic 10. La Salle should be the third team behind Xavier and Dayton. Houston will have to compete with Memphis to finish second in C-USA, but Aubrey Coleman and Kelvin Lewis lead a very dangerous Cougar backcourt. Speaking of guards, Troy boasts a good combo as well. Richard Delk and Brandon Hazzard could help scare Western Kentucky, or could make the Sun Belt a two-bid league. Finally, there’s Illinois State. Northern Iowa and Creighton are getting most of the attention in the Missouri Valley, but remember the name Osiris Eldridge (and with a name like that, how could you not). He’s helped Illinois State advance to the MVC finals the last two seasons. This could be the year the Redbirds win it.


TOP 25

1. Texas
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Purdue
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan State
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Connecticut
10. West Virginia
11. Washington
12. Georgia Tech
13. Butler
14. Duke
15. Dayton
16. Mississippi State
17. Ohio State
18. Louisville
19. UCLA
20. Oklahoma
21. Maryland
22. California
23. Clemson
24. Notre Dame
25. Illinois

Maryland Basketball: Thank Goodness For Basketball Season

It’s about time that I was able to write about something other than the Redskins. It’s Terps basketball season to the rescue. And not a moment too soon.

As we embark on Gary Williams’ 21st season in College Park, the Maryland basketball program stands at a crossroads. The 2002 National Championship is too far in the past to keep bragging about it, but it is still too recent to forget about it or the man who orchestrated that banner. Since that time we’ve seen everything. A respectable follow-up Sweet 16 berth in 2003. A “sign-of-things-to-come” season in 2004. Unfortunately, we didn’t know a close second round NCAA loss and an entire team returning was a sign for the most embarrassing season in recent memory in 2005, followed by another one in 2006. There was the senior laden team finally living up to potential in 2007. A 2008 that was too young to do anything other than lose to American and Ohio. And of course, the 2009 squad that took Maryland fans, and their coach, on a not-so-amusing joy ride that ended up in second round of the NCAA tournament.

This is where we find our Maryland Terrapins. The majority of the team returns, with two key reinforcements. On paper, you won’t find one analyst in the country who thinks Maryland will be worse than they were last season. No longer is Dave Neal forced to start at center. No longer will the entire frontcourt be makeshift. There may actually be not just one - but two - players who can now grab big rebounds. And yes, the key piece to puzzle skipped out on the NBA and will be returning for his senior year. BUT, this is still the same team that lost to Morgan State in January. This is still the same team that was blown off the floor by Ratface and the White Supremacists in Durham, then blown out again by John “One Foot Out The Door, One Hand Giving Out Cash” Calipari and the semi-pro team from Memphis. The 2009 season showed that the current group of players has potential, but it’s potential to be both good (beating Michigan State, UNC and Wake Forest) and bad.

Furthermore, the 7-year roller coaster ride the program has taken is no longer enjoyable for the larger portion of the fanbase. No one will argue that the program has gone downhill since 2002. You can argue about the degree of decline, but not the general direction. Looking ahead to next season, Williams is about to bring in his most celebrated class in a long time, and that class is only going to get larger and better in the coming months. But if Maryland undergoes another 2009, let alone another 2005 or 2006, will those 17-year-olds keep their promise to enroll at College Park in the fall of 2010? All these factors converge as the backdrop for the 2009-2010 Maryland Terrapins.

And what of the team itself? Who is to say? Most believe that they will the tournament with ease. Others think we may have flashbacks to last season. The general consensus seems to be between 3rd and 6th place in the ACC and at least one win in the NCAA tournament. To be perfectly honest, I don’t know what to make of this team. There’s a hint of 2003, with an experienced backcourt and a young promising frontline. There’s a hint of 2005, with Greivis Vasquez playing the role of John Gilchrist, who would have rather been in the NBA, ABA, CBA or anywhere overseas getting paid instead of playing college hoops. Certainly all the struggles and triumphs of last season still ring fresh in my mind. Hopefully by dissecting this roster, we can get some answers.

Backcourt:
For the second straight season, the strength of this team will be the guards. Vasquez is obviously the star of this unit and of the team. By skipping out on the draft, he instantly gives Maryland credibility. Vasquez is easily one of the top 10-15 players in the college ranks this season. What the rest of this unit needs to do is help him. Adrian Bowie, Eric Hayes, Sean Mosley and Cliff Tucker will all see significant playing time throughout the season. The backcourt is deep and extremely versatile. If the Terps want to go big, they can throw Bowie out at point and have Vasquez and Tucker (both 6’6”) play the wings. They have both Hayes and Tucker off the bench if they need three-point scoring. Vasquez can play point, shooting guard and small forward. Mosley and Vasquez are excellent defensemen. There are endless possibilities for this unit. However, someone other than Vasquez needs to score consistently. Bowie would be my choice. He has show the ability to hit from long range, and also show the ability to mirror Vasquez and slash to the hoop. He can create off the dribble, and he’s also unselfish. Other than Vasquez, he’s the team’s most complete player. He will probably start as the small forward/other shooting guard in most games, but he will move around throughout 40 minutes. As for the start of the season, we’ll probably see Vasquez at point, Mosley playing the 2, and Bowie at the 3. Hayes will be the first guy off the bench. Tucker will get plenty of minutes as long as his defense keeps improving.

Frontcourt:
For the second straight season it’s the big question mark. Landon Milbourne is guaranteed to play power forward for majority of the season. After that, who knows? It looked as if this would be a deeper position this year. Then Jerome Burney’s foot condition finally caught up with him and ended his career. In the summer, Dino Gregory decided to cheat on a test (at least, that is the popular theory at this point…the university won’t go into details). What this means for Gregory at a normal program is a 4-5 game suspension, or at worst, a suspension for the rest of the semester. What this means for Gregory at Maryland, a school where the Athletic Director is trying to get rid of her popular head basketball coach (you can bet that there will be more on that in the near future on this website), it could mean the entire season. Right now, it appears as if Gregory will not play until at least December, and my sources in the athletic department say that he probably won’t be eligible at all. So along with Milbourne, that leaves the two freshmen. Both are very talented, and both are a major upgrade from Dave Neal. But they are freshmen, and this is still the ACC. Gregory’s suspension could be a blessing in disguise. It will force James Padgett and Jordan Williams to play against non-conference competition, and they’ll hopefully be ready to go for the start of ACC play. Williams appears to be the better scorer, while Padgett appears to be the better defender and rebounder. That will just about guarantee Padgett the starting job until Williams’ defense catches up to his offense. Steve Goins could be used as depth if his knee surgery this past summer was up to snuff.

Rotation/Bench:
With Gregory, Maryland is a legitimate 9-deep team. That means Gary Williams can play his up-and-down the court style. Without him, Maryland is only 8-deep, and will have to rely on either Jin Soo Choi or Goins improving rapidly to get to nine. I doubt that will happen, but expect both to see spot time during the early part of the season, or a decent amount of playing time if there is foul trouble. Again, Gregory is not needed in the starting lineup, but without him, the depth of the frontcourt is severely crippled. The starting lineup will most likely be Vasquez-Mosley-Bowie-Milbourne-Padgett. Once again, Hayes will be first off the bench. Jordan Williams will definitely be seeing significant playing time. Tucker will be as well. The question mark’s hovering over Gregory leave a lot up in the air at this time.

What to expect:
Guess I have to put some kind of prediction down here. I think Maryland will probably slip up somewhere in Maui. They won’t be ready for Villanova in early December. But a good win in Maui, and a win at Indiana, will both be solid non-conference wins. The rest of the non-conference schedule is loaded with teams that will be near the bottom in RPI. While that certainly won’t help Maryland, maybe they’ll avoid having what is becoming an annual embarrassing loss (ie: American, Ohio, Morgan State). As for the ACC, the conference is so wide open, that a veteran backcourt like Maryland’s could carry this team to the top of the heap. However, chances are that Maryland is a 9-to-10 win ACC team. That will probably be good enough for 4th or 5th place and somewhere between a 7-9 seed in the NCAA tournament. I do expect them to match last year’s tournament win, but anything after that can’t be considered realistic until we know the fate of Gregory. With him, this team is deep enough and balanced enough to get through the first weekend. Without him, the backcourt will have to carry too much weight, as will the two freshmen. There wouldn’t be much of a likelihood of getting past the second round.

Conference predictions and Top 25 hopefully coming later in the week.

Redskins at Falcons: Apology Not Accepted

Washington Redskins (2-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
The bye week came and went, but there are no solutions to the problems that have plagued the Redskins through the first seven games. The easy schedule didn’t help. Playing the Eagles and forcing the Redskins to play up to their competition didn’t help. There are no quick fixes on the offensive line (as I said back in September, the only way the Redskins were not going to be at least .500 is if the offensive line suffered a couple injuries…I hate being right). The power struggle behind the scenes continues. Jim Zorn is just basically showing up and collecting his paycheck at this point. On top of everything else, we’ve had some weird John Riggins-Greg Blache feud to deal with. The feud was sparked by Dan Snyder apologizing to the fans. Apparently, people were unhappy that he would apologize for the team’s lousy start. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t Danny.

Worse yet, it appears as if the Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden hires are losing momentum before the season is halfway over. Never count out what $10-20 million could do, but it doesn’t look like any of those three will be coming to Ashburn to bail out the Redskins this offseason. It appears to be Mike Shanahan or bust at this point. Again, if that means he’ll be the coach/GM, and Vinny Cerrato is fired because of it, then I’m all for it. Otherwise, I’m not too thrilled about the idea of Shanahan in D.C. Another name floating out there is Russ Grimm. We’ll cross that bridge more when we come to it, but there are some major pros and major cons if that hiring were to actually happen.

There’s no need to ramble on about the Redskins anymore. The bye week helped nothing. The players have still packed it in, the coaching staff has basically already packed up their belongings, and the schedule is just brutal. I assume the rest of these Redskins previews will be pretty short.

The Skins travel to Atlanta for their first road game in almost a month. Getting on the road may actually benefit the team, especially Jason Campbell and the offense. It also doesn’t hurt that the Redskins have had two weeks to get ready for this game while the Falcons not only had one, but it was a shortened week after their Monday night loss to New Orleans. The fact that Atlanta is coming off that game to New Orleans, which was a huge game for them, will also help Washington. The Falcons are almost guaranteed to have a letdown game.

Other than that, there aren’t a lot of positive notes going into this one. Atlanta had done a fantastic rebuilding job since the Michael Vick fiasco. It took them rough a year-and-a-half. The Falcons offense has been up-and-down at times, but when they click, they are one of the best units in the league. Behind a young and talented offensive line, Matt Ryan can pretty much do whatever he wants. He hasn’t been touched a whole lot this season. With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to, it’s hard for the opposing team to double team anyone. And with Michael Turner, a player who has established himself as one of the top five running backs in the league, no team can drop too many linebackers back into coverage or bring too many nickel and dime corners and have them play away from the line. The offense is very well balanced, and it’s surprising that they’ve even had occasional problems moving the ball.

Defensively, the Falcons give up a lot of yards. They surrender 378 yards per game. There are several reasons for that. First, they’ve played several good offenses. Second, they are a very aggressive defense, and even though they get lots of sacks and turnovers, they are prone to giving up big plays. Finally, the offense usually scores so quickly, the defense is on field an awful lot. The secondary is still kind of sketchy, but the front seven usually get to the quarterback enough to mask that deficiency.

For those who don’t understand what I’m talking about when I’ve discussed Greg Blache’s refusal to attack the quarterback must watch this game. The Falcons will do exactly what the Redskins should have been doing all season. They will hide their defensive issues by attacking Campbell, especially since they know the line is weak. I see a repeat of the Eagles six-sack performance coming up on Sunday. The defense should contain the Falcons for the most part. Expect Atlanta to struggle early as they’ve had the short week against the Redskins two weeks to prepare. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Skins actually jumped out on top. I would be surprised if the Skins were on top at the end of the game.

NFL Week 9: LOUD NOISES!!!!

After my outstanding Week 7, Week 8 was not as kind. That doesn’t mean it was awful, just above average. The overall record was 8-5, and the spread record was 6-7. For the season, they look a little something like this:

Overall: 76-33 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 61-46-2

SUNDAY

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
If anyone wants to really have fun listening to a football game, try to find highlites of last week’s Jaguars-Titans game with CBS’ television call underneath. I only need two words to describe it: Gus Johnson.
Pick: Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens (4-3)(-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
It makes too much sense to pick Cincinnati here. They are at home, coming off a bye week, they’ve already beaten the Ravens, etc… Vegas clearly knows something I don’t with this line, so I’ll go with it.
Pick: Ravens

Houston Texans (5-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
As good as the Colts are, they are not going to go undefeated. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t fun to watch. Even last week, when they played their C- game against the 49ers, Peyton Manning was still able to move the ball and make the game entertaining. This is the last chance that anyone in the AFC South has of stopping the Colts from winning this division by Thanksgiving. Houston should be able to give them fits for the first half, but the Colts will probably put them, and the division, away in the 3rd quarter.
Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers (4-3)(-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
The Packers 4-3 should really be written as 4-3* (* Meaning that they’ve already lost twice to Minnesota and are already 2.5 games behind the Vikings. So it’s really like a 3.5 game lead since the Vikings own the tiebreaker. So despite being over .500, the Packers really have no chance at winning the division and probably won’t make the playoffs because of their second half schedule).
Pick: Packers

Arizona Cardinals (4-3) vs. Chicago Bears (4-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
The Cardinals go on the road and dominate the Giants one week, then return home and get blown out by the Panthers. Does this make any sense to you? Me either. Still looks like nine games will win the NFC West.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (3-4) vs. New England Patriots (5-2)(-10.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
With the Lakers winning the NBA Championship, the Yankees winning the World Series, and the Colts on pace to win the Super Bowl, this could be an awful year to be a Boston sports fan. And an awful year for them is an awesome year for the rest of us. Go listen to some more Neil Diamond you losers.
Pick: Patriots

Carolina Panthers (3-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-0)(-13)
4:05 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Jon Gruden is terrible as a MNF announcer. You might as well bring back Tony Kornheiser. First of all, he makes up retarded nicknames for just about every player. Secondly, he yells into the microphone way too much. HEY JON, THE MICROPHONE IS A DEVICE THAT PICKS UP YOUR VOICE AND THEN AMPLIFIES IT FOR YOU. YOU DON’T HAVE TO YELL FOR PEOPLE TO HEAR YOU. YOU ARE NOT GUS JOHNSON. Finally, he acted as if the Saints had cleared their last major hurdle by beating the Falcons. He said “I don’t know if anyone remaining on their schedule can come close to beating these guys.” I think the Saints are a great team. I hope they make the Super Bowl and face the Colts. But the Saints still have games against New England, Dallas and have to play at Atlanta. I wouldn’t call any of those easy wins.
Pick: Saints, Panthers cover

Detroit Lions (1-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-5)(-10)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
I’m not sure the Seahawks should be favored over anyone, including the Lions, by double digits. On a positive note, the Seahawks are only 2 games out of first in the NFC West!
Pick: Seahawks, Lions cover

Tennessee Titans (1-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-4)(-4)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
There is all this talk about a moral victory for the 49ers, since they only lost by 4 at Indianapolis. I wonder how that moral victory is sitting with Mike Singletary.
Pick: 49ers

San Diego Chargers (4-3) vs. New York Giants (5-3)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
So that’s three straight weeks the Giants have been exposed against better football teams. Not sure how much better the Chargers are (they are coached by Norv Turner after all), but I certainly think that they are better than the Giants at this point of the season. Eli Manning has definitely regressed into old school Eli Manning. The running game has become predictable. The secondary had been beaten deep. A lot of issues on this Giants team right now.
Pick: Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)(-3)
8:20 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Now that Tony Romo is done beating up on the Buccaneers and the Seahawks of the world, it will be fun to watch him fumble twice and throw at least two interceptions on the road against a good team. Cue the deer in headlights look right about…now.
Pick: Eagles

MONDAY

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (6-1)
8:30 p.m. Mile High Stadium
If the Ravens can come off a bye week and handle Denver, then I’m sure the Steelers will have an even easier time coming off their bye week and handling Denver.
Pick: Steelers

Bye Week: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

NFL Week 8: Take Off Your Pants, Singletary Will Be Along Shortly

Finally had my break through week against the spread…and the overall record wasn’t too bad either. I was 10-2 for Week 7, and I was 10-1-1 against the spread. That bumps the records up to:

Overall: 68-28 (71%)
Vs. Spread: 55-39-2

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (6-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
I’ll start off strong this week. If the Broncos are playing like contenders, I might as well start picking them. The overall Vegas line matches my own personal over/under line for personal foul calls against the Baltimore defense this week.
Pick: Broncos

New York Giants (5-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Not having Brian Westbrook would be a big deal for the Eagles if they ever ran the ball. LeSean McCoy is just as effective at not getting the football as Westbrook is.
Pick: Giants

Cleveland Browns (1-6) vs. Chicago Bears (3-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
You would think that with the Vikings and Packers blowing by them in the standings, the Bears would have wanted to at least make their game competitive last week. I watched most of the first half of that Bears-Bengals contest, and one of two things is true. One, the Bengals are the Super Bowl favorite right now. Two, the Bears aren’t capable of going .500 the rest of the season. I think the latter is more likely.
Pick: Bears

Houston Texans (4-3)(-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-4)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The Bills keep finding themselves in games with odd lines. Last week they were giving seven to a bad Carolina team. Now they are giving four at home against an up and down Texans team that may or may not have the services of Andre Johnson. Eeesh, I want to take the Bills...but I can't.
Pick: Texans

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-0)(-12)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
Here are two facts for you. The 49ers have looked terrible during their last two games. Mike Singletary has yet to drop his pants during those two performances. Coincidence? I think not.
Pick: Colts

Miami Dolphins (2-4) vs. New York Jets (4-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
I’ve listened to everyone slurp the Dolphins and the Wildcat offense the past few weeks. I’m not sure if anyone else has noticed the Dolphins 2-4 record? Does anyone else see that? Let’s talk about that before we start gushing about the Wildcat offense.
Pick: Dolphins

St. Louis Rams (0-7) vs. Detroit Lions (1-5)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Really NFL? Really? I don’t know what I could possibly say about this one. The only reason to go with Detroit instead of St. Louis is because the Lions are coming off a bye week. Pay no attention to that -4 line. It’s meaningless (much like this game). It took me several minutes to find a betting site that even had a line listed. Most places aren’t even letting you put money on this game. That’s right, Vegas doesn’t even know what to do with this one.
Pick: Lions

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
I really don’t know how the Cowboys have managed to go 4-2. They aren’t that good. Their second half schedule will prove it. This game may even go a long way towards proving it.
Pick: Cowboys, Seahawks cover

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-6)(-3)
4:05 p.m. LP Field
For the Redskins fans who can’t comprehend the positive effect that Albert Haynesworth is having for the defense, first check out Andre Carter’s and Brian Orakpo’s statistics. Then look at Tennessee’s defensive statistics. Maybe not worth the $45 million guaranteed, but Kyle Vanden Bosch would sure love him to come back to Nashville.
Pick: Jaguars

Oakland Raiders (2-5) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-3)(-16.5)
4:05 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
My girlfriend and I are in the same fantasy football league. We both had defenses on the bye this week. I had a higher priority wavier than she did. She begged me not to pick up San Diego’s defense. I’ll be starting Arizona this week…I’m such a sucker.
Pick: Chargers

Carolina Panthers (2-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)(-10)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Go Arizona defense!!! Meanwhile, since I spend a lot of time criticizing some of my own stupid predictions, it’s about time I praise myself. No one had the Cardinals covering the spread last week, let alone had them beating the Giants on the road…no one except for me.
Pick: Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-2)(-3.5)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
Gag me. Didn’t we just go through this Brett Favre nonsense a couple of weeks ago? What’s stunning is this game isn’t in primetime on either Sunday or Monday night. How did the NFL allow this to become a 4:15 game?
Pick: Vikings

MONDAY

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-0)(-10)
8:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Even when Miami was up 24-3 on New Orleans, I had NO doubt that the Saints would come back in that game. In fact, I was surprised it took them until the fourth quarter to take the lead. I expected them to be winning by the middle of the third.
Pick: Saints, Falcons cover

Bye Week: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington

Eagles at Redskins: Will The Last Man Standing Turn Off The Lights

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) vs. Washington Redskins (2-4)
8:30 p.m. FedEx Field
Well, it will be fun for the Redskins to play a franchise almost as dysfunctional as themselves at the current moment. No, the Eagles don’t have a quarterback controversy (at least not yet). Their coach’s hot seat is warm, but not boiling (at least not yet). Their disgusting fan base is angry, but not enraged (we’ll see what happens after the Phillies lose the World Series). However, they did just lose to Oakland. And it didn’t look any better than the boxscore indicated.

The Redskins problems are out there in the open. They’ve been the big story everywhere this week. Something tells me that ESPN is only covering the Jim Zorn fiasco because the Skins happen to be playing on their network. If this game was a 1:00 FOX game, I don’t think ESPN would have focused much on the Redskins. They haven’t focused on the team all season, even when they hired Sherm Lewis two weeks ago. How convenient that they start covering the team this week. I caught one of their roundtable discussions on Wednesday, when they were talking about poor Jim Zorn and how much Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato are idiots for not giving him a vote of confidence. Then I caught another one on Friday night, after Cerrato issued the vote of confidence, and the same talking heads were blabbering on about how Zorn should be fired. Just goes to reaffirm my belief that ESPN is more interested in creating their own news rather than covering the actual news. It’s enough to make your head spin. But I digress.

Is Jim Zorn still coaching, or does he have no power? Will Jason Campbell start or not start? Will he seem to care or not care? Who is actually going to be calling the plays? Is Cerrato actually crazy, or does he continue to make moves and statements that aren’t rational because he still doesn’t know how crazy he sounds? His bug-eyes aren’t helping any of us determine to answer to that. At this point, does it really matter? Probably not. True, the Redskins have a history of beating teams they shouldn’t and then playing down to inferior competition. We’ve already seen the latter part of that this season, and this will be the first week that we get to see the Skins test the former.

The Eagles, as you might imagine, are overhyped. It happens every year. They are part of the Holy Quintet (Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots & whatever team Brett Favre is on). They are always supposed to be better than record indicates if you listen to ESPN or other sports outlets. Their three wins are against Tampa, Carolina and Kansas City. Their losses are to New Orleans and Oakland. Neither of those were pretty. There’s obviously no shame losing to the Saints, but the Eagles were blown out. The Saints made it clear that Philadelphia is a second-tier NFC team. The loss to the Raiders, which is embarrassing, proved that fact. At 3-2, the Eagles are probably much worse than their record indicates.

Part of the problem has been injuries, but the majority of the problem is coaching and execution. The Eagles linebackers and secondary have been depleted because of the injury bug. I said in the preseason that it was stupid to allow Brian Dawkins to walk in his free agency year. I guaranteed that he had at least two more good seasons left in him. Not only that, but he was the one constant in Philly’s ever-revolving-door in the secondary and he was a team leader. But they let Dawkins go to Denver, where he has played extremely well. Meanwhile, the Eagles back seven have been very vulnerable.

The coaching staff is another issue. It started with the death of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson in the off-season. I’ve long said that he was the best coach the Eagles had during the last ten years, and that includes the current coach and father-of-the-decade candidate Andy Reid. The defense, against decent offenses, hasn’t looked the same. They’re still blitzing, but they are not as effective. And remember, they haven’t faced the Cowboys or Giants yet. They still have to play the Broncos and Chargers. They still have to play Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Other than the Saints, who completely embarrassed the defense, they haven’t faced a lot of great offenses yet. This is a problem that’s only going to get worse. Reid is just a lousy coach, and Johnson’s replacement has yet to fill the void on Reid’s staff.

Offensively, it’s the same old story. Donovan McNabb is great one week and bad the next. McNabb still can’t stay healthy either. Brian Westbrook continues his career-long bout with the injury bug as well. Despite having two talented running backs and a decent offensive line, Reid and his brilliant offensive assistants continue to throw the ball more than just about every team in the league. And this year, they’ve even hired Michael Vick. Considering his past, there’s no more perfect city for Vick to call home than Philadelphia. He fits right in with the other criminals that reside there. However, it doesn’t appear that Vick fits in with the Eagles, since his impact has been almost non-existent.

Look, this game is going to probably be pretty ugly. If the Redskins somehow turn a minor miracle and win this game, I think it would be the upset of the season so far. Even more surprising than Philly’s loss last week. But with the Eagles penchant to blitz, and the Redskins MASH unit on the offensive line, there’s no way the Skins offense is going to do better this week than in the last few Sundays. And even if things are open downfield, what’s the likelihood that Campbell’s going to make plays? The Skins defense will keep them in the game, but the offense will probably let the team down again.

NFL Week 7: Overseas Travel Tips

The overall record was once again great for Week 6 (9-4) but the record against the spread was literally strictly average (6-6-1). Here are the records so far:

Overall: 58-26 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 45-38-1

SUNDAY

San Diego Chargers (2-3)(-4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Did anyone ever check to see if Al Groh and Norv Turner are the same person? Has anyone ever seen them in the same room or stadium together? How many times can both coaches start poorly, get hot, finish around .500 and save their jobs before their employers decide to hire someone that’s competent?
Pick: Chargers

Indianapolis Colts (5-0)(-13) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
The Colts did not need the bye week to get ready for this game. In fact, they only really needed the amount of time a bus ride would take to St. Louis.
Pick: Colts

Chicago Bears (3-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Field
I really should have seen Cincy’s loss to Houston coming. Classic trap game. As for the Bears, I’m not sure what they saw in Jay Cutler that was worth giving him a 2-year extension. I’m not sure what part of their 3-2 record was that impressive. Kyle Orton (remember him?) is 6-0 in Denver. Seems like the wrong QB got the extension.
Pick: Bengals

Green Bay Packers (3-2)(-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
This one reeks of a game the Packers are going to give away. They simply aren’t that good. They are clearly the 3rd best team in their division. I won’t pick it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they slip up here.
Pick: Packers

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Brett Favre had his FIRST decent game of the season against the Ravens. You wouldn’t know that by listening to FOX, CBS, ESPN, CNN, CBC, NBC, the NRA or the IRS. But Favre finally showed that even 40-year quarterbacks can help win a game once and awhile. The Vikings run ends here, and the beginning of the “What’s Wrong with Favre” segments begin on all the ESPN shows.
Pick: Steelers

New England Patriots (4-2)(-14) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Wembley Stadium in London, England
Again with the England game. Ok, NFL. We all get it. You are trying to spread the game globally. Well done! Perhaps sending a winless team over to London for the 2nd time in three seasons isn’t the best way to sell American Football. Especially a winless team that’s forced to play an opponent who could have easily put up 80 points or more last week. By the way, is there any chance that Bill Belichick won't be allowed back in the country?
Pick: Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) vs. Houston Texans (3-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
This really isn’t fair. The NFL decides to put the two most schizo franchises on a field together and forces me to pick between the two. While the Texans have had some quizzical losses, they have yet to lose by 35 points at home, like the 49ers have. Two weeks ago I praised the 49ers for appearing to be relevant again. Then they stick up the joint against Atlanta. Give me Houston at home.
Pick: Texans

New York Jets (3-3)(-6.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-4)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Speaking of schizo, how about this matchup. The Jets get off to a 3-0 start (even though everyone knew they weren’t that good), then lose three straight. The most recent of which came at home to the Bills, a team that seemingly gave up on their season back in September. Mark Sanchez goes from the Sanch-ise to five interceptions in the span of 21 days. And the Jets aren’t even the most confusing team on the field in this game. The Raiders, after being blown out in consecutive weeks, completely embarrass the Eagles. Now I know the Eagles weren’t as good as their 3-1 record indicated, but under no circumstances should they have lost that game. So a team that can’t hold on to the ball has to make a cross-country trip to play a team that is among the worst run franchises in professional sports. I’m just closing my eyes and pointing randomly to make a pick at this point.
Pick: Jets

Buffalo Bills (2-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-3)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Here’s another one I don’t know what to do with. I could easily take Carolina since they get to face a Bills team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. But that’s the same Fitzpatrick that made fewer mistakes than Sanchez last week and somehow helped Buffalo win. I’m just going to play it safe.
Pick: Panthers, Bills cover

New Orleans Saints (5-0)(-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-3)
4:15 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
The Saints proved that they are far and away the best team in the NFC. Miami has proven throughout the season that they are strictly middle-of-the-pack in the AFC. However, Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this, so it should be much closer for New Orleans than their game was last week.
Pick: Saints

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)(-4.5)
4:15 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
Clearly Las Vegas has not been watching the Cowboys this season. They’ve had one decent game, and that was against the Buccaneers. They got dominated by Denver and the Giants. They should have lost to Kansas City. They played even with Carolina. The schedule has helped this team to 3-2. But it’s time to face it…despite all the talent on that roster, the Cowboys are a below average team.
Pick: Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) vs. New York Giants (5-1)(-7)
8:20 p.m. Giants Stadium
All the experts are usually quick to point out that the Cardinals can’t win on the East Coast. I used to be one of those people. However, Arizona has won their last two East Coast games, including that playoff win last season in Charlotte. The Cardinals get in trouble when they have to play a 1:00 p.m. game in this time zone. As you can see, that won’t be a problem for Arizona. As for the Giants, they were exposed last week in their first real test of the season. This is their second. The Cards are rolling, and a night game against the Giants shouldn’t stop that roll.
Pick: Cardinals

Bye Week: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

Chiefs at Redskins: Holding The Line

Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) vs. Washington Redskins (2-3)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
There’s not a whole lot to say, so I’ll keep it short. Nothing less than two straight victories will save Jim Zorn’s job. The bye week is rapidly approaching, and unless they can pull off what seems to be a minor miracle by beating the Eagles next Monday, Dan Snyder appears ready to sink the season and start from scratch. On the plus side, Maryland Madness was this weekend. The Terps should be in the Top 25 and should be a fun team to watch. At least there’s that.

I hate to keep saying it, but this isn’t Zorn’s fault. I sound like a broken record at this point. Yes, there have been questions about clock management and in-game adjustments. But we all had the same questions about Joe Gibbs during his second go around. And I have a hard time blaming Dan Snyder. Sure he treats the fans like crap. But in terms of putting money into the team, you couldn’t ask for a better owner. He will buy a championship if he’s allowed to (and he may be able to next season). That’s all you can really ask for. I also root for the Orioles, whose owner always tries to go the cheap route and the team has been a laughingstock for a decade because of it. At least the Redskins are competitive most seasons. I never blame the owner for meddling with the team. It’s their millions and it’s their franchise. Only in the sports business is an owner “supposed to” send out all the paychecks and then keep his nose out of how the organization is run. If an owner of any other company did that, they’d be crazy and probably be bankrupt in no time flat.

I will remain on record as saying that Vinny Cerrato and Greg Blache (which I’ve gone over at great length) are the most to blame for this mess. Cerrato is here because of one reason: he’s a yes man. Snyder loves yes men. If Cerrato had any balls as a GM he would tell Snyder why it wasn’t such a good idea to sink $40 million into Adam Archuleta. He would stand up to Snyder and tell him to draft linemen instead of receivers. He would take responsibilities for some of the terrible moves he’s made instead of letting his coach twist in the wind. But he refuses to do any of that.

It’s because of Cerrato that the team had no capable backup to Chris Samuels last week. If they had one, the Redskins would have coasted to victory. They were up 17-2, and if they had depth at the offensive line, they would have run the Panthers into the ground. But they couldn’t. They couldn’t run or pass. Not with D’Anthony Batiste and Stephon Heyer as the two offensive tackles. Not with 350 pound (or 375…400…who knows) Mike Williams at guard. The only place the Skins could run was behind Casey Rabach and Derrick Dockery, and it didn’t take the Panthers long to figure out what the Skins were trying to do.

The offensive line was a problem last year. It was a problem in March, before free agency began. It was a problem in April before the draft. It was a problem during the summer, when teams made cutdowns and decent backups were on the market. Through it all, the Redskins and Cerrato decided to sign only Williams, who hadn’t played an NFL game in three seasons. Every Redskins fan could have told you that the main issue for the team was the offensive line. It wasn’t fixed in the off-season. I even said as much during my season preview. The Redskins were only going to play well as long as their offensive line was intact. They lost Randy Thomas a few weeks ago, and now Chris Samuels is going to be out until at least the bye week. I’m not saying that you have to have All-Pros waiting in the wings, but you have to have capable NFL bodies. Not Heyer, not Williams and not Batiste. This problem is on Cerrato. Period.

I said I would keep it short, so let’s move on the Chiefs. I expected Kansas City to finish around .500 this season. For those staring at their 0-5 record and laughing at me, a .500 finish could still happen. The Chiefs had to play the Ravens and the entire NFC East during the first six weeks of the season. Their loss to the Raiders was inexcusable (even though Matt Cassel didn’t play), but the other four losses were expected. And their schedule gets must easier the rest of the way. Kansas City is not as bad as their record indicates. They’ve been getting better week by week. They hung with the Giants for three quarters. They dominated the Cowboys and choked that game away. This really isn’t a bad team. They are a young team, but not a bad one.

The current problem for Kansas City is their former strength: the run game. The Chiefs had Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson in their primes. Holmes is long gone, and Johnson might as well be too. Johnson averages 4.4 yards per carry for his career, but is under 2.5 this season. The Chiefs line isn’t great, but the real problem is Johnson himself. The miles have finally caught up to him. Without him, or an effective backup (Jamaal Charles doesn’t count), the Chiefs offense is completely one dimensional. And since Cassel was hurt for the first few weeks of the season, even their passing game was dreadful.

Cassel is back, and close to 100% healthy. I expect the Chiefs to move the ball relatively well. The question will be how can the Redskins and their make-shift offensive line move against KC. Their secondary is well below NFL average, but their front seven is starting to come into their own. Again, they are young. But the talent is starting to show this season. Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey on the ends should be a force over the next five years for the Chiefs. Tamba Ali (who is hybrid who primarily plays OLB in KC’s 3-4 scheme), Demorrio Williams and Corey Mays also give the Chiefs hope of a solid linebacking corps in the future. And if Derrick Johnson’s head ever catches up to his natural talent, then this front seven is set until at least 2014.

This will probably be an ugly game in the first half. The Redskins will need at least a half to figure out what they can and cannot do with their offensive line. Kansas City will need at least a half to fool around with the run game until giving up and going to the air. It should be low-scoring and close, but what Redskins game isn’t? Hopefully the burgundy and gold can win this one, and try to save their season next week.

NFL Week 6: Not Winless, But Still Hopeless

Another solid overall week (9-4) was combined with another lousy week against the spread (7-6). Eventually I’ll catch up to Vegas, but in the meantime, the records look like this:

Overall: 49-22 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 39-32

SUNDAY

Houston Texans (2-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I still have a feeling that the Bengals are just leading their poor fans along until they collapse. This would be a classic letdown game for them. However, the Bengals have three straight home games and a bye week, so they don’t have to play on the road for another month. In other news, I think I’ve finally figured out the Jekyll and Hyde Texans.
Pick: Bengals

Cleveland Browns (1-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Remove the Browns from the winless list. I’m willing to bet it will be their only win this season. I think Cleveland truly is the worst team in the NFL this year. The problem for Cleveland is they still need a quarterback, but they’ve already invested so much money into that position already. Brady Quinn has not just been the failure I predicted; he’s been a tremendous failure. So can the Browns actually invest more money in a QB when they also have so many other gaping holes?
Pick: Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Again, the day of reckoning is coming for the Vikings. They will not win the Super Bowl with their Narcissistic quarterback. It just won’t be here. Meanwhile, the Ravens continue to cost themselves games with idiotic penalties. Why in the world is Frank Walker committing a five-yard pass interference penalty on a 3rd-and-16 pass late in the game? I think it’s fair to say the Ravens are the dumbest team in the NFL.
Pick: Vikings

St. Louis Rams (0-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
The Jaguars just lost by 41 points to a 1-3 football team…and they’re favored by 9.5 points! Yes, that’s how bad the Rams are.
Pick: Jaguars

New York Giants (5-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
This will be the Giants first trip to New Orleans since 2005. Oh wait, that “road” game was played at the Meadowlands. Despite Hurricane Katrina, the NFL still looks ridiculous for allowing the Giants to play nine home games that season while everyone else had to play eight. By the way, the Giants won the NFC East by exactly one game that season. As for 2009, this will be the Giants first true road test, and I don’t think they’re up for it.
Pick: Saints

Carolina Panthers (1-3)(-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Your guess is as good as mine. I guess I’ll go with the team that actually managed to beat the Redskins.
Pick: Panthers

Detroit Lions (1-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2)(-14)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
I know that the Lions stink. I know the Packers had two weeks to prepare for this game. I know the game is being played in Green Bay. Still, something smells about this line and about this Packers team. Like Dallas, I have a feeling that the Packers continue to be overrated. I had them going 7-9 in my preseason predictions, and it appears that they are still headed straight on that course.
Pick: Packers, Lions cover

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-3)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
After the 49ers laid an egg and were exposed last weekend, this game takes on added importance in the race for the NFC West title. And by “race” I mean whichever team screws up the least for the next 11 weeks. I haven’t taken an upset yet, so what the heck.
Pick: Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)(-13.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-4)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Remember when I said the Raiders weren’t that bad. Ignore that. They are that bad.
Pick: Eagles

Buffalo Bills (1-4) vs. New York Jets (3-2)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Speaking of bad, here come the Buffalo Bills. I’m sure the point has been made several times this week, but this is a team that allowed Derek Anderson to only complete 2 of 17 passes for 23 yards…AND LOST! TO THE BROWNS! I don’t know if it gets much worse than that.
Pick: Jets, Bills cover

Tennessee Titans (0-5) vs. New England Patriots (3-2)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
More signs that Tom Brady still isn’t close to being 100% and the Patriots are in trouble: Brady has a completion percentage of 61.4%. That would be lower than Jason Campbell, Seneca Wallace, Kevin Kolb and Kyle Orton. It’s only hair above Brady Quinn. Yikes.
Pick: Patriots

Chicago Bears (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-1)(-3)
8:20 p.m. Georgia Dome
This should be a great Sunday Night game and an important game for both teams. Despite playing well, both continue to lose ground in their divisions to Minnesota and New Orleans respectively. The loser of this game probably finds themselves down at least two games in the loss column. It’s probably more important for the Falcons to take this one. They have already lost to the Saints once, where as Chicago at least has two later chances against Minnesota.
Pick: Falcons

MONDAY

Denver Broncos (5-0) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-2)(-3.5)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
I still don’t think I’ve taken Denver to win yet this season. The defense does seem to be legitimate, but I’m still not buying this smoke and mirrors offense. This is also the same Denver team that lost a three game lead with three to play last season. So we’ll see how the Broncos do in the second half of the season.
Pick: Chargers

Bye Week: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco

Redskins at Panthers: Consulting Firm

Washington Redskins (2-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Well, the Redskins won at least. And for at least one game, or at least one half, there was moderate improvement. The offense that showed promise last season showed up in the second half. We not only saw a touchdown drive, we saw a big pass play for the second week in a row. More on the offense in minute. Most importantly, we saw the defense play up to their capabilities. Not counting the touchdown pass, since the Buccaneers drive started at the Washington 10, the defense allowed only two real drives the entire game and surrendered six points. They stopped Cadillac Williams and company from running on them. They pressured Josh Johnson. I know Johnson is essentially a rookie, but he made some very good decisions to pull the ball down and run (however, he looked scared to throw the ball). It’s not a great measuring stick for the Redskins defense, but they at least put pressure on the quarterback and got off the field on 3rd down. It was some combination of the Bucs line being terrible and Greg Blache (who is no longer talking to the media) finally taking some chances with his decent front seven.

Now to the big story over the past week. The offense looked good in the second half, but apparently not good enough to stop Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato from hiring Sherman Lewis as an “offensive consultant”. I’m not sure what that means, and I’m not sure the Redskins know what this means. Jim Zorn was not consulted about the consultant before he was hired. As of Wednesday, Lewis had no set role in the Redskins coaching system. It had many people confused for several days.

Now, I figured out in two minutes what it took the local sports media two days to realize. Lewis was brought in as a security blanket and a back-up option for Snyder in case he wants to relieve Zorn of his coaching duties. One of two things are going to happen. The first option is that Zorn and Sherman Smith are going to get their offense clicking and the Redskins are going to start winning games. If that occurs, Lewis hangs around Redskins Park the rest of the season, gets a big fat paycheck from Snyder, is thanked for his service, and sent on his way at the end of the year. The second option is that the offense continues to struggle, the Redskins drop two of their next three games, Snyder gets rid of Zorn and promotes Blache (ugh) for the rest of the season, and Lewis becomes Blache’s offensive coordinator. The hiring takes place after another overall lackluster performance by the offense, and three weeks before the bye week (which would be the most likely time for Snyder to make a move). I heard columnist Mike Wise say that Snyder was simply “hedging his bets”. Lewis is one of the godfathers of the West Coast Offense, so I’m sure he has some insight to share with the rest of the class. If things get real ugly in the next month, then Lewis has had about 30 days to familiarize himself with the players and personnel, and can be ready to call plays for his good friend Blache. There’s also a third option. With Sherman Smith already on the coaching staff, maybe Snyder wants to start building a coaching staff of just people named Sherman. It’s a reach, but I still leave it out there as a possibility.

In essence, this was the right move by Snyder, but it was done in typical-Snyder fashion. Let’s say the Redskins lose two of their next three. The Skins are 3-4 going into the bye week. Zorn gets fired. In the NFL, 3-4 is not nearly bad enough to give up on the season. You certainly don’t want to tell an already unhappy fan base that you are conceding the season in the first week of November. It’s also likely that there will be a host of 9-7/8-8 type teams competing for the last two playoff spots in the NFC. Whatever the case may be, if Snyder wants to go through with a change, then it makes sense to start preparing for it now so the rest of the season doesn’t go down the drain.

But, there are better ways to do it. You don’t send Cerrato out to a press conference admitting that he doesn’t know what roll Lewis will serve. Hell, make up a roll. Just don’t tell the media that you don’t know. Secondly, don’t have Cerrato doing the press conference in the first place. Snyder should have been out there himself, and while announcing the hiring, should have given Zorn a vote of confidence at the same time. Finally, it’s common courtesy to at least inform the head coach that this is about to happen. You can’t just drop it on him.

Whatever the case may be, it added a lot of unnecessary drama to a team that doesn’t need any more of it. It complicated what will be another difficult week for the Redskins, as they face their toughest test since opening week. In the standings, the Carolina Panthers are easy to ignore at 0-3. The offense has 12 turnovers in three games. The defense is ranked 23rd in the league and has given up more than 350 yards of offense a game. John Fox, for the first time in a long time, is on the hot seat. Things may be uglier in Charlotte than they are in Ashburn and Landover.

However, this game would not be easy for any team, especially a Redskins team that always plays down to its competition. The Panthers lost their three games to Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas. So it’s not as if they’ve played three sisters of the poor. The Panthers get this game at home, where they were 8-0 during the regular season last year. Plus, the Panthers are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. One of my favorite stats continues to be the one that focuses on the win percentage of teams coming off their bye playing teams that don’t come off one. The team that had the bye week wins nearly 75% of the time. So, when the Redskins had to play four teams coming off their bye week in 2006, it was if the schedule already handed them three losses.

Just like the Redskins, I think the Panthers are simply too talented to struggle like this all season. Jake Delhomme’s problems have been well documented. He’s been a deer in headlights since his five interception performance against Arizona in the playoffs. However, this team still has Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (who may not play due to an achilles injury) on offense. That’s a load of talent. Defensively, Carolina has showed signs of putting things together in the last two weeks after a rough debut against the Eagles. They too have plenty of talent with Julius Peppers, Na’il Diggs, Jon Beason and Chris Gamble still on the squad. No, this isn’t the same team that had a deadly pass rush just a couple of seasons ago. But they are still fast, and they still apply plenty of pressure on the quarterback.

The big question mark is Delhomme. This is a quarterback who has been to the playoffs several times. He led the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII and played well in the game. He’s had several arm surgeries, but has come back with success each time. He has a lifetime completion percentage around 60%. He has 34 more touchdowns than interceptions. It’s not as if he’s unproven. It’s not as if he’s never had success. I don’t fully comprehend his recent struggles. It just seems like he hasn’t been the same quarterback since the end of last season. But it’s hard to argue that he’s a good quarterback right now. He has two touchdowns and seven picks. He has never been mobile. Carolina’s line is not what it once was. All a defense has to do is get someone in his face, and he tends to force his passes. Are you listening Blache?

Once again, the NFL has handed the Redskins a team with a quarterback who can’t move and tends to make bad decisions if rushed. You saw what the Redskins defense was capable of last week when they pressured Johnson. Blitzing Delhomme should be a no-brainer. Offensively, the Redskins HAVE to establish the run. The Panthers are dead last in the NFL in rush defense. They’ve been gashed for nearly 183 yards per game on the ground. This is the game for Mike Sellers to finally start living up to that contract extension he just signed. He’s been non-existent since signing it, and he’s been too busy picking fights with Clinton Portis in the locker room. Time for Mike to put up or shut up. The Redskins must run the ball to win this game. So with the vultures circling, maybe the Redskins bread and butter will finally show up and lead the offense to some success.