Mark the Predictor

College Basketball Preview, 2009-2010

2009-11-11T15:23:00.001-05:00

Here we go, 2009-10 basketball season preview. I’ll take a look at the six power conferences, a few of the mid-majors I expect to make some noise, and we’ll wrap it all up with the Top 25. Teams with a * next to their names I’ve projected to make the NCAA tournament. The Maryland preview is below this post, but we’ll talk about the Terps more when they get to Maui.

ACC
Projected Standings

1. North Carolina*
2. Georgia Tech*
3. Duke*
4. Maryland*
5. Clemson*
6. Wake Forest*
7. Boston College
8. Miami
9. Florida State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Virginia
12. NC State

Notes: North Carolina still gets the nod because they are still immensely talented. Will they be as good as last season? Of course not. But they are the best team in the ACC. Georgia Tech was going to be good before they added freshman Derrick Favors to the mix. Paul Hewitt finally gets a team with the majority of decent players jumping to the NBA or Europe. Duke has questions in the backcourt AND major questions about it’s depth. It appears 2010-11 may be a potentially good year for them, but they’ll be also-rans this season. On the other hand, Maryland’s backcourt is great, but too many frontcourt issues remain to put them higher than 4th. Clemson returns Trevor Booker, and adds two terrific freshmen in Milton Jennings and Noel Johnson. However, too much experience was lost at the guard position. Wake Forest’s Al-Farouq Aminu should be ACC player of the year as long as the media morons don’t vote for Duke White Stiff. Teams 1-6 could really finish in several orders, but that’s clearly the top half of the conference. Boston College, Miami and Florida State lost Tyrese Rice, Jack McClinton and Toney Douglas respectively. I have a feeling that BC may be better without Rice, but that remains to be seen. The Tony Bennett hiring was an awful move by Virginia. Not sure how he is going to be able to recruit in this area with his style of play. And believe it or not, NC State may actually be worse than last season. Sidney Lowe has some interesting players coming in next year, but I doubt he’ll be around to coach them.

Big East
Projected Standings

1. Villanova*
2. Connecticut*
3. West Virginia*
4. Louisville*
5. Notre Dame*
6. Cincinnati*
7. Georgetown*
8. Syracuse
9. Pittsburgh
10. Marquette
11. Seton Hall
12. Providence
13. St. John’s
14. South Florida
15. Rutgers
16. DePaul

Notes: The Big East prepares to take three giant steps backwards this season (even though they didn’t place a team in the finals last year), as there are only three to four teams to really watch this season. Villanova is legit. Three top scorers return along with a very highly ranked recruiting class. Of course, having Scottie Reynolds doesn’t hurt. Getting Jerome Dyson healthy will be the key for UConn, despite losing a lot. They just reload under that criminal Jim Calhoun. Bob Huggins has a history of overachieving with bad rosters (like last season), but underachieving with good ones (ie: his entire career at Cincinnati). He may have the best team in this conference, but they won’t play like it. Louisville could be the 2nd place team in this conference, but there have been an awful lot of distractions (Pitino extortion case, several players getting arrested, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams to the NBA). Luke Harangody will help Notre Dame bounce back. Cincinnati with Lance Stephenson, if he manages to stay eligible all year, should be a darkhorse. Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh are either incomplete teams (The Orange…LeMoyne says hi), poorly coached teams (The Hoyas) or both (The Panthers). Two of them will not make it. Pittsburgh lost everyone from last year’s team, they will assuredly be playing in the NIT. The rest of the conference is pretty bad. A real darkhorse could be South Florida, with Stan Heath in charge and Gus Gilchrist manning the post. Yes, that’s the same Gilchrist who should be wearing Maryland red and black. USF should be sure to send Debbie Yow a thank you card.

Big Ten
Projected Standings

1. Purdue*
2. Michigan State*
3. Ohio State*
4. Illinois*
5. Michigan*
6. Minnesota
7. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
9. Northwestern
10. Iowa
11. Indiana

Notes: Everyone remembers the finish of Michigan State’s 2008-09 season. Everyone forgets that Michigan State struggled most of the season with inconsistent offense and injuries. Purdue, in my opinion, was the better team last year. I think they will be the better team again. Both teams are definitely Top 10 squads, but I’ll give the Boilers the edge. As for the other nine teams, they aren’t going to be as good as everyone thinks. Let’s end all this babble about the Big Ten being the best basketball conference this season. They are still squarely behind the ACC, Big East and Big XII. Ohio State can score, so they’ll be able to squeeze at least 10 wins out of this conference. Illinois is young, will be respectable this season, but very scary next year. Michigan has two players to speak of with Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. They too were an average team until mid-March. Tubby Smith can’t keep enough of his Gophers eligible or out of prison. Look for a promising year to be stopped before it starts in Minneapolis. Wisconsin won’t be good, which is great for the rest of the country because we won’t have to watch 44-42 basketball games and won’t have to see how frightening Bo Ryan looks. Penn State had their chance last season. Northwestern would be good if they were in the Pac-10 or SEC. Iowa and Indiana are still in major rebuilding mode.

Big XII
Projected Standings

North
Kansas (2)*
Kansas State (5)*
Missouri (7)*
Iowa State (9)
Colorado (11)
Nebraska (12)

South
Texas (1)*
Oklahoma (3)*
Oklahoma State (4)*
Texas A&M (6)*
Baylor (8)
Texas Tech (10)

Notes: Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your college basketball big dog for the season. Instead of taking trendy Kansas at #1 in the conference and in the nation, I’m going to take a better and deeper Texas team. When Jai Lucas is eligible to play in the second semester, the Longhorns are going to be at least 10-deep. Plus, there hasn’t been any drama in the offseason in Austin. The same can’t be said about Lawrence. And while Bill Self is a better coach than Rick Barnes, Barnes is going to have a real tough time screwing this one up. The rest of the conference is pretty good as well. I have them listed for seven tournament bids, but it may be less if the top 3-4 teams are so much better than the rest of the conference, that they just beat up on everyone. OU lost the Griffin brothers, but Willie Warren is the best player in the conference. Oklahoma State loses Byron Eaton, but returns the rest of the team. Kansas State, Texas A&M and Missouri have various talented pieces, but each is missing a third scoring option and depth. Baylor might challenge for a tournament bid in a lesser conference, but not the Big XII in 2010. Iowa State and Texas Tech should at least be competitive. Colorado and Nebraska will not be.

Pac-10
Projected Standings

1. Washington*
2. UCLA*
3. California*
4. Arizona*
5. Oregon
6. Arizona State
7. Oregon State
8. Washington State
9. Southern Cal
10. Stanford

Notes: There are a lot of people writing off just about every team west of the Great Plains this season. I wouldn’t do that. While the Pac-10 is a shell of what it was two years ago, and even last season, there are still a couple of teams here that could make some noise. This conference may be way down this year, don’t think we’ll be seeing a 2008-09 version of the SEC. Washington has the great backcourt led by aptly named Isaiah Thomas. UCLA lost a lot in the offseason, but Ben Howland has recreated the Bruins into a monster. With a couple of more great recruiting classes, and a down conference, UCLA should be right in the thick of things. California is getting a lot of hype, since they are returning the majority of their team. But that was the same team that struggled in February and March, and didn’t have a decent frontcourt. Many are saying Arizona won’t be tournament ready with the loss of Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. I think the hiring of Sean Miller will steady a program that has been in flux at the coaching position for the last two seasons. Oregon remains one of two dark horses, the other one coming from in-state rival Oregon State. Tajuan Porter is still in Eugene, but if the Ducks don’t get back to the dance, how long with Ernie Kent be there? The Beavers are on the other end of the spectrum. Craig Robinson has overachieved, but his team is young and may need another year before they seriously challenge in this conference. Washington State lost most of its talent and its coach. USC is a complete mess right now. Not sure why Kevin O’Neil decided to take the Trojans job, but this could be a career killer for him if he can’t keep the program afloat and if the NCAA comes down hard on them. Johnny Dawkins is just the latest Ratface assistant to prove he’s not a great head coach, following in the footsteps of Tommy Amaker, Quinn Snyder and Mike Brey. The Cardinal are going to be dreadful this season, and there is no hope for recovery in sight.

SEC
Projected Standings

East
Kentucky (1)*
Tennessee (2)*
Vanderbilt (4)*
South Carolina (5)*
Florida (8)
Georgia (12)

West
Mississippi State (3)*
Alabama (6)*
Mississippi (7)
LSU (9)
Arkansas (10)
Auburn (11)

Notes: John Calipari and Kentucky are getting all the attention, but there is more to like in the SEC than the Wildcats. True, Kentucky appears to be back on paper. However, I don’t think they can be considered a Top 5 team just yet. Tennessee could easily surprise them and take this conference, since there is more experience in Knoxville than in Lexington. Mississippi State is the class of the Western Division, even without Renardo Sidney. They still have Jarvis Varnado and a solid starting five in Starksville, and there isn’t another standout team in their division to challenge them. Vanderbilt and South Carolina should both have an easy time locking up an NCAA bid. They just can’t afford to slip up against Florida or Georgia. The Commodores are once again playing darkhorse with A.J. Ogilvy still suiting up for Kevin Stallings. Alabama won the Anthony Grant sweepstakes, and Grant should inherit a good enough roster to slide the Tide into one of the last NCAA tournament spots. Ole Miss could make some noise as long as their head coach stays out of trouble. Billy Donovan knows he has at least two more seasons before fans starting getting restless at Florida…he may have even longer if the football team continues to win and distract people. LSU will take a temporary step back this season. The other three teams are going to struggle to post 4-5 wins in this conference.

Mid-majors

The obvious ones
Butler
Dayton
Gonzaga
Xavier
Siena
BYU

Notes: With the exception of Xavier, each of these teams is the class of their conferences. Many have talked about Butler and Dayton making a serious run to the Elite 8…or further. I think that talk is WAY too premature. Butler looks like a Sweet 16 caliber team, but will they ever score enough points to win consistently against the big boy teams? Dayton can score, so I think they may actually be the best mid-major out there this season with Chris Wright returning. Xavier will keep the heat up on Dayton in the A-10. Gonzaga loses just about their entire team, but they’ll cruise to the WCC title once again. Siena returns the majority their team that has won a NCAA tournament game each of the last two years. The Mountain West lost a lot of talent, so that pretty much opens the conference up to BYU, with the majority of the Mormons returning to Provo.

The not so obvious ones
Tulsa
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
Nevada

Notes: I really love Tulsa. I talked about Jerome Jordan last season at this time, and he didn’t disappoint. Add in dynamic guard Ben Uzoh and the downfall of Memphis, it appears to be Tulsa’s time to shine in C-USA. Western Kentucky continues to be the North Carolina of the Sun Belt. They lose Orlando Mendez-Valdez, so A.J. Slaughter will step up in his place. This team could repeat their Sweet 16 visit from two seasons ago. The CAA usually cannibalizes itself, but this year should be different. Blaine Taylor and ODU are the clear favorites, and could be that dreaded 11-12 seed in the NCAA tournament. And, while most experts are ready to hand over the WAC to Utah State again, I think the loss of Gary Wilkinson will be too much for them to overcome. Nevada gets it done in the WAC, and wins a game in the NCAA tournament this season…even with a new coaching regime in Reno.

Under the radar Mid-majors
San Diego State
Illinois State
Houston
Troy
La Salle

Notes: If not for an awful last two weeks of the season, San Diego State would have made the NCAA tournament last season. And while the Aztecs are losing three starters from that team, they have a bevy of transfer students from big programs waiting to join the roster. Plus, the Mountain West should be good enough for three bids, so SDSU should step up behind BYU and UNLV. The same goes for the Atlantic 10. La Salle should be the third team behind Xavier and Dayton. Houston will have to compete with Memphis to finish second in C-USA, but Aubrey Coleman and Kelvin Lewis lead a very dangerous Cougar backcourt. Speaking of guards, Troy boasts a good combo as well. Richard Delk and Brandon Hazzard could help scare Western Kentucky, or could make the Sun Belt a two-bid league. Finally, there’s Illinois State. Northern Iowa and Creighton are getting most of the attention in the Missouri Valley, but remember the name Osiris Eldridge (and with a name like that, how could you not). He’s helped Illinois State advance to the MVC finals the last two seasons. This could be the year the Redbirds win it.

TOP 25

1. Texas
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Purdue
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan State
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Connecticut
10. West Virginia
11. Washington
12. Georgia Tech
13. Butler
14. Duke
15. Dayton
16. Mississippi State
17. Ohio State
18. Louisville
19. UCLA
20. Oklahoma
21. Maryland
22. California
23. Clemson
24. Notre Dame
25. Illinois

Maryland Basketball: Thank Goodness For Basketball Season

2009-11-09T11:16:00.002-05:00

It’s about time that I was able to write about something other than the Redskins. It’s Terps basketball season to the rescue. And not a moment too soon.

As we embark on Gary Williams’ 21st season in College Park, the Maryland basketball program stands at a crossroads. The 2002 National Championship is too far in the past to keep bragging about it, but it is still too recent to forget about it or the man who orchestrated that banner. Since that time we’ve seen everything. A respectable follow-up Sweet 16 berth in 2003. A “sign-of-things-to-come” season in 2004. Unfortunately, we didn’t know a close second round NCAA loss and an entire team returning was a sign for the most embarrassing season in recent memory in 2005, followed by another one in 2006. There was the senior laden team finally living up to potential in 2007. A 2008 that was too young to do anything other than lose to American and Ohio. And of course, the 2009 squad that took Maryland fans, and their coach, on a not-so-amusing joy ride that ended up in second round of the NCAA tournament.

This is where we find our Maryland Terrapins. The majority of the team returns, with two key reinforcements. On paper, you won’t find one analyst in the country who thinks Maryland will be worse than they were last season. No longer is Dave Neal forced to start at center. No longer will the entire frontcourt be makeshift. There may actually be not just one - but two - players who can now grab big rebounds. And yes, the key piece to puzzle skipped out on the NBA and will be returning for his senior year. BUT, this is still the same team that lost to Morgan State in January. This is still the same team that was blown off the floor by Ratface and the White Supremacists in Durham, then blown out again by John “One Foot Out The Door, One Hand Giving Out Cash” Calipari and the semi-pro team from Memphis. The 2009 season showed that the current group of players has potential, but it’s potential to be both good (beating Michigan State, UNC and Wake Forest) and bad.

Furthermore, the 7-year roller coaster ride the program has taken is no longer enjoyable for the larger portion of the fanbase. No one will argue that the program has gone downhill since 2002. You can argue about the degree of decline, but not the general direction. Looking ahead to next season, Williams is about to bring in his most celebrated class in a long time, and that class is only going to get larger and better in the coming months. But if Maryland undergoes another 2009, let alone another 2005 or 2006, will those 17-year-olds keep their promise to enroll at College Park in the fall of 2010? All these factors converge as the backdrop for the 2009-2010 Maryland Terrapins.

And what of the team itself? Who is to say? Most believe that they will the tournament with ease. Others think we may have flashbacks to last season. The general consensus seems to be between 3rd and 6th place in the ACC and at least one win in the NCAA tournament. To be perfectly honest, I don’t know what to make of this team. There’s a hint of 2003, with an experienced backcourt and a young promising frontline. There’s a hint of 2005, with Greivis Vasquez playing the role of John Gilchrist, who would have rather been in the NBA, ABA, CBA or anywhere overseas getting paid instead of playing college hoops. Certainly all the struggles and triumphs of last season still ring fresh in my mind. Hopefully by dissecting this roster, we can get some answers.

Backcourt:
For the second straight season, the strength of this team will be the guards. Vasquez is obviously the star of this unit and of the team. By skipping out on the draft, he instantly gives Maryland credibility. Vasquez is easily one of the top 10-15 players in the college ranks this season. What the rest of this unit needs to do is help him. Adrian Bowie, Eric Hayes, Sean Mosley and Cliff Tucker will all see significant playing time throughout the season. The backcourt is deep and extremely versatile. If the Terps want to go big, they can throw Bowie out at point and have Vasquez and Tucker (both 6’6”) play the wings. They have both Hayes and Tucker off the bench if they need three-point scoring. Vasquez can play point, shooting guard and small forward. Mosley and Vasquez are excellent defensemen. There are endless possibilities for this unit. However, someone other than Vasquez needs to score consistently. Bowie would be my choice. He has show the ability to hit from long range, and also show the ability to mirror Vasquez and slash to the hoop. He can create off the dribble, and he’s also unselfish. Other than Vasquez, he’s the team’s most complete player. He will probably start as the small forward/other shooting guard in most games, but he will move around throughout 40 minutes. As for the start of the season, we’ll probably see Vasquez at point, Mosley playing the 2, and Bowie at the 3. Hayes will be the first guy off the bench. Tucker will get plenty of minutes as long as his defense keeps improving.

Frontcourt:
For the second straight season it’s the big question mark. Landon Milbourne is guaranteed to play power forward for majority of the season. After that, who knows? It looked as if this would be a deeper position this year. Then Jerome Burney’s foot condition finally caught up with him and ended his career. In the summer, Dino Gregory decided to cheat on a test (at least, that is the popular theory at this point…the university won’t go into details). What this means for Gregory at a normal program is a 4-5 game suspension, or at worst, a suspension for the rest of the semester. What this means for Gregory at Maryland, a school where the Athletic Director is trying to get rid of her popular head basketball coach (you can bet that there will be more on that in the near future on this website), it could mean the entire season. Right now, it appears as if Gregory will not play until at least December, and my sources in the athletic department say that he probably won’t be eligible at all. So along with Milbourne, that leaves the two freshmen. Both are very talented, and both are a major upgrade from Dave Neal. But they are freshmen, and this is still the ACC. Gregory’s suspension could be a blessing in disguise. It will force James Padgett and Jordan Williams to play against non-conference competition, and they’ll hopefully be ready to go for the start of ACC play. Williams appears to be the better scorer, while Padgett appears to be the better defender and rebounder. That will just about guarantee Padgett the starting job until Williams’ defense catches up to his offense. Steve Goins could be used as depth if his knee surgery this past summer was up to snuff.

Rotation/Bench:
With Gregory, Maryland is a legitimate 9-deep team. That means Gary Williams can play his up-and-down the court style. Without him, Maryland is only 8-deep, and will have to rely on either Jin Soo Choi or Goins improving rapidly to get to nine. I doubt that will happen, but expect both to see spot time during the early part of the season, or a decent amount of playing time if there is foul trouble. Again, Gregory is not needed in the starting lineup, but without him, the depth of the frontcourt is severely crippled. The starting lineup will most likely be Vasquez-Mosley-Bowie-Milbourne-Padgett. Once again, Hayes will be first off the bench. Jordan Williams will definitely be seeing significant playing time. Tucker will be as well. The question mark’s hovering over Gregory leave a lot up in the air at this time.

What to expect:
Guess I have to put some kind of prediction down here. I think Maryland will probably slip up somewhere in Maui. They won’t be ready for Villanova in early December. But a good win in Maui, and a win at Indiana, will both be solid non-conference wins. The rest of the non-conference schedule is loaded with teams that will be near the bottom in RPI. While that certainly won’t help Maryland, maybe they’ll avoid having what is becoming an annual embarrassing loss (ie: American, Ohio, Morgan State). As for the ACC, the conference is so wide open, that a veteran backcourt like Maryland’s could carry this team to the top of the heap. However, chances are that Maryland is a 9-to-10 win ACC team. That will probably be good enough for 4th or 5th place and somewhere between a 7-9 seed in the NCAA tournament. I do expect them to match last year’s tournament win, but anything after that can’t be considered realistic until we know the fate of Gregory. With him, this team is deep enough and balanced enough to get through the first weekend. Without him, the backcourt will have to carry too much weight, as will the two freshmen. There wouldn’t be much of a likelihood of getting past the second round.

Conference predictions and Top 25 hopefully coming later in the week.

Redskins at Falcons: Apology Not Accepted

2009-11-07T23:00:00.006-05:00

Washington Redskins (2-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
The bye week came and went, but there are no solutions to the problems that have plagued the Redskins through the first seven games. The easy schedule didn’t help. Playing the Eagles and forcing the Redskins to play up to their competition didn’t help. There are no quick fixes on the offensive line (as I said back in September, the only way the Redskins were not going to be at least .500 is if the offensive line suffered a couple injuries…I hate being right). The power struggle behind the scenes continues. Jim Zorn is just basically showing up and collecting his paycheck at this point. On top of everything else, we’ve had some weird John Riggins-Greg Blache feud to deal with. The feud was sparked by Dan Snyder apologizing to the fans. Apparently, people were unhappy that he would apologize for the team’s lousy start. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t Danny.

Worse yet, it appears as if the Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden hires are losing momentum before the season is halfway over. Never count out what $10-20 million could do, but it doesn’t look like any of those three will be coming to Ashburn to bail out the Redskins this offseason. It appears to be Mike Shanahan or bust at this point. Again, if that means he’ll be the coach/GM, and Vinny Cerrato is fired because of it, then I’m all for it. Otherwise, I’m not too thrilled about the idea of Shanahan in D.C. Another name floating out there is Russ Grimm. We’ll cross that bridge more when we come to it, but there are some major pros and major cons if that hiring were to actually happen.

There’s no need to ramble on about the Redskins anymore. The bye week helped nothing. The players have still packed it in, the coaching staff has basically already packed up their belongings, and the schedule is just brutal. I assume the rest of these Redskins previews will be pretty short.

The Skins travel to Atlanta for their first road game in almost a month. Getting on the road may actually benefit the team, especially Jason Campbell and the offense. It also doesn’t hurt that the Redskins have had two weeks to get ready for this game while the Falcons not only had one, but it was a shortened week after their Monday night loss to New Orleans. The fact that Atlanta is coming off that game to New Orleans, which was a huge game for them, will also help Washington. The Falcons are almost guaranteed to have a letdown game.

Other than that, there aren’t a lot of positive notes going into this one. Atlanta had done a fantastic rebuilding job since the Michael Vick fiasco. It took them rough a year-and-a-half. The Falcons offense has been up-and-down at times, but when they click, they are one of the best units in the league. Behind a young and talented offensive line, Matt Ryan can pretty much do whatever he wants. He hasn’t been touched a whole lot this season. With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to, it’s hard for the opposing team to double team anyone. And with Michael Turner, a player who has established himself as one of the top five running backs in the league, no team can drop too many linebackers back into coverage or bring too many nickel and dime corners and have them play away from the line. The offense is very well balanced, and it’s surprising that they’ve even had occasional problems moving the ball.

Defensively, the Falcons give up a lot of yards. They surrender 378 yards per game. There are several reasons for that. First, they’ve played several good offenses. Second, they are a very aggressive defense, and even though they get lots of sacks and turnovers, they are prone to giving up big plays. Finally, the offense usually scores so quickly, the defense is on field an awful lot. The secondary is still kind of sketchy, but the front seven usually get to the quarterback enough to mask that deficiency.

For those who don’t understand what I’m talking about when I’ve discussed Greg Blache’s refusal to attack the quarterback must watch this game. The Falcons will do exactly what the Redskins should have been doing all season. They will hide their defensive issues by attacking Campbell, especially since they know the line is weak. I see a repeat of the Eagles six-sack performance coming up on Sunday. The defense should contain the Falcons for the most part. Expect Atlanta to struggle early as they’ve had the short week against the Redskins two weeks to prepare. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Skins actually jumped out on top. I would be surprised if the Skins were on top at the end of the game.

NFL Week 9: LOUD NOISES!!!!

2009-11-05T14:53:00.002-05:00

After my outstanding Week 7, Week 8 was not as kind. That doesn’t mean it was awful, just above average. The overall record was 8-5, and the spread record was 6-7. For the season, they look a little something like this:

Overall: 76-33 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 61-46-2

SUNDAY

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
If anyone wants to really have fun listening to a football game, try to find highlites of last week’s Jaguars-Titans game with CBS’ television call underneath. I only need two words to describe it: Gus Johnson.
Pick: Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens (4-3)(-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
It makes too much sense to pick Cincinnati here. They are at home, coming off a bye week, they’ve already beaten the Ravens, etc… Vegas clearly knows something I don’t with this line, so I’ll go with it.
Pick: Ravens

Houston Texans (5-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
As good as the Colts are, they are not going to go undefeated. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t fun to watch. Even last week, when they played their C- game against the 49ers, Peyton Manning was still able to move the ball and make the game entertaining. This is the last chance that anyone in the AFC South has of stopping the Colts from winning this division by Thanksgiving. Houston should be able to give them fits for the first half, but the Colts will probably put them, and the division, away in the 3rd quarter.
Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers (4-3)(-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
The Packers 4-3 should really be written as 4-3* (* Meaning that they’ve already lost twice to Minnesota and are already 2.5 games behind the Vikings. So it’s really like a 3.5 game lead since the Vikings own the tiebreaker. So despite being over .500, the Packers really have no chance at winning the division and probably won’t make the playoffs because of their second half schedule).
Pick: Packers

Arizona Cardinals (4-3) vs. Chicago Bears (4-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
The Cardinals go on the road and dominate the Giants one week, then return home and get blown out by the Panthers. Does this make any sense to you? Me either. Still looks like nine games will win the NFC West.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (3-4) vs. New England Patriots (5-2)(-10.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
With the Lakers winning the NBA Championship, the Yankees winning the World Series, and the Colts on pace to win the Super Bowl, this could be an awful year to be a Boston sports fan. And an awful year for them is an awesome year for the rest of us. Go listen to some more Neil Diamond you losers.
Pick: Patriots

Carolina Panthers (3-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-0)(-13)
4:05 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Jon Gruden is terrible as a MNF announcer. You might as well bring back Tony Kornheiser. First of all, he makes up retarded nicknames for just about every player. Secondly, he yells into the microphone way too much. HEY JON, THE MICROPHONE IS A DEVICE THAT PICKS UP YOUR VOICE AND THEN AMPLIFIES IT FOR YOU. YOU DON’T HAVE TO YELL FOR PEOPLE TO HEAR YOU. YOU ARE NOT GUS JOHNSON. Finally, he acted as if the Saints had cleared their last major hurdle by beating the Falcons. He said “I don’t know if anyone remaining on their schedule can come close to beating these guys.” I think the Saints are a great team. I hope they make the Super Bowl and face the Colts. But the Saints still have games against New England, Dallas and have to play at Atlanta. I wouldn’t call any of those easy wins.
Pick: Saints, Panthers cover

Detroit Lions (1-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-5)(-10)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
I’m not sure the Seahawks should be favored over anyone, including the Lions, by double digits. On a positive note, the Seahawks are only 2 games out of first in the NFC West!
Pick: Seahawks, Lions cover

Tennessee Titans (1-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-4)(-4)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
There is all this talk about a moral victory for the 49ers, since they only lost by 4 at Indianapolis. I wonder how that moral victory is sitting with Mike Singletary.
Pick: 49ers

San Diego Chargers (4-3) vs. New York Giants (5-3)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
So that’s three straight weeks the Giants have been exposed against better football teams. Not sure how much better the Chargers are (they are coached by Norv Turner after all), but I certainly think that they are better than the Giants at this point of the season. Eli Manning has definitely regressed into old school Eli Manning. The running game has become predictable. The secondary had been beaten deep. A lot of issues on this Giants team right now.
Pick: Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)(-3)
8:20 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Now that Tony Romo is done beating up on the Buccaneers and the Seahawks of the world, it will be fun to watch him fumble twice and throw at least two interceptions on the road against a good team. Cue the deer in headlights look right about…now.
Pick: Eagles

MONDAY

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (6-1)
8:30 p.m. Mile High Stadium
If the Ravens can come off a bye week and handle Denver, then I’m sure the Steelers will have an even easier time coming off their bye week and handling Denver.
Pick: Steelers

Bye Week: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

NFL Week 8: Take Off Your Pants, Singletary Will Be Along Shortly

2009-10-29T15:08:00.004-04:00

Finally had my break through week against the spread…and the overall record wasn’t too bad either. I was 10-2 for Week 7, and I was 10-1-1 against the spread. That bumps the records up to:

Overall: 68-28 (71%)
Vs. Spread: 55-39-2

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (6-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
I’ll start off strong this week. If the Broncos are playing like contenders, I might as well start picking them. The overall Vegas line matches my own personal over/under line for personal foul calls against the Baltimore defense this week.
Pick: Broncos

New York Giants (5-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Not having Brian Westbrook would be a big deal for the Eagles if they ever ran the ball. LeSean McCoy is just as effective at not getting the football as Westbrook is.
Pick: Giants

Cleveland Browns (1-6) vs. Chicago Bears (3-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
You would think that with the Vikings and Packers blowing by them in the standings, the Bears would have wanted to at least make their game competitive last week. I watched most of the first half of that Bears-Bengals contest, and one of two things is true. One, the Bengals are the Super Bowl favorite right now. Two, the Bears aren’t capable of going .500 the rest of the season. I think the latter is more likely.
Pick: Bears

Houston Texans (4-3)(-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-4)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The Bills keep finding themselves in games with odd lines. Last week they were giving seven to a bad Carolina team. Now they are giving four at home against an up and down Texans team that may or may not have the services of Andre Johnson. Eeesh, I want to take the Bills...but I can't.
Pick: Texans

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-0)(-12)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
Here are two facts for you. The 49ers have looked terrible during their last two games. Mike Singletary has yet to drop his pants during those two performances. Coincidence? I think not.
Pick: Colts

Miami Dolphins (2-4) vs. New York Jets (4-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
I’ve listened to everyone slurp the Dolphins and the Wildcat offense the past few weeks. I’m not sure if anyone else has noticed the Dolphins 2-4 record? Does anyone else see that? Let’s talk about that before we start gushing about the Wildcat offense.
Pick: Dolphins

St. Louis Rams (0-7) vs. Detroit Lions (1-5)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Really NFL? Really? I don’t know what I could possibly say about this one. The only reason to go with Detroit instead of St. Louis is because the Lions are coming off a bye week. Pay no attention to that -4 line. It’s meaningless (much like this game). It took me several minutes to find a betting site that even had a line listed. Most places aren’t even letting you put money on this game. That’s right, Vegas doesn’t even know what to do with this one.
Pick: Lions

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
I really don’t know how the Cowboys have managed to go 4-2. They aren’t that good. Their second half schedule will prove it. This game may even go a long way towards proving it.
Pick: Cowboys, Seahawks cover

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-6)(-3)
4:05 p.m. LP Field
For the Redskins fans who can’t comprehend the positive effect that Albert Haynesworth is having for the defense, first check out Andre Carter’s and Brian Orakpo’s statistics. Then look at Tennessee’s defensive statistics. Maybe not worth the $45 million guaranteed, but Kyle Vanden Bosch would sure love him to come back to Nashville.
Pick: Jaguars

Oakland Raiders (2-5) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-3)(-16.5)
4:05 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
My girlfriend and I are in the same fantasy football league. We both had defenses on the bye this week. I had a higher priority wavier than she did. She begged me not to pick up San Diego’s defense. I’ll be starting Arizona this week…I’m such a sucker.
Pick: Chargers

Carolina Panthers (2-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)(-10)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Go Arizona defense!!! Meanwhile, since I spend a lot of time criticizing some of my own stupid predictions, it’s about time I praise myself. No one had the Cardinals covering the spread last week, let alone had them beating the Giants on the road…no one except for me.
Pick: Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-2)(-3.5)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
Gag me. Didn’t we just go through this Brett Favre nonsense a couple of weeks ago? What’s stunning is this game isn’t in primetime on either Sunday or Monday night. How did the NFL allow this to become a 4:15 game?
Pick: Vikings

MONDAY

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-0)(-10)
8:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Even when Miami was up 24-3 on New Orleans, I had NO doubt that the Saints would come back in that game. In fact, I was surprised it took them until the fourth quarter to take the lead. I expected them to be winning by the middle of the third.
Pick: Saints, Falcons cover

Bye Week: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington

Eagles at Redskins: Will The Last Man Standing Turn Off The Lights

2009-10-26T00:54:00.002-04:00

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) vs. Washington Redskins (2-4)
8:30 p.m. FedEx Field
Well, it will be fun for the Redskins to play a franchise almost as dysfunctional as themselves at the current moment. No, the Eagles don’t have a quarterback controversy (at least not yet). Their coach’s hot seat is warm, but not boiling (at least not yet). Their disgusting fan base is angry, but not enraged (we’ll see what happens after the Phillies lose the World Series). However, they did just lose to Oakland. And it didn’t look any better than the boxscore indicated.

The Redskins problems are out there in the open. They’ve been the big story everywhere this week. Something tells me that ESPN is only covering the Jim Zorn fiasco because the Skins happen to be playing on their network. If this game was a 1:00 FOX game, I don’t think ESPN would have focused much on the Redskins. They haven’t focused on the team all season, even when they hired Sherm Lewis two weeks ago. How convenient that they start covering the team this week. I caught one of their roundtable discussions on Wednesday, when they were talking about poor Jim Zorn and how much Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato are idiots for not giving him a vote of confidence. Then I caught another one on Friday night, after Cerrato issued the vote of confidence, and the same talking heads were blabbering on about how Zorn should be fired. Just goes to reaffirm my belief that ESPN is more interested in creating their own news rather than covering the actual news. It’s enough to make your head spin. But I digress.

Is Jim Zorn still coaching, or does he have no power? Will Jason Campbell start or not start? Will he seem to care or not care? Who is actually going to be calling the plays? Is Cerrato actually crazy, or does he continue to make moves and statements that aren’t rational because he still doesn’t know how crazy he sounds? His bug-eyes aren’t helping any of us determine to answer to that. At this point, does it really matter? Probably not. True, the Redskins have a history of beating teams they shouldn’t and then playing down to inferior competition. We’ve already seen the latter part of that this season, and this will be the first week that we get to see the Skins test the former.

The Eagles, as you might imagine, are overhyped. It happens every year. They are part of the Holy Quintet (Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots & whatever team Brett Favre is on). They are always supposed to be better than record indicates if you listen to ESPN or other sports outlets. Their three wins are against Tampa, Carolina and Kansas City. Their losses are to New Orleans and Oakland. Neither of those were pretty. There’s obviously no shame losing to the Saints, but the Eagles were blown out. The Saints made it clear that Philadelphia is a second-tier NFC team. The loss to the Raiders, which is embarrassing, proved that fact. At 3-2, the Eagles are probably much worse than their record indicates.

Part of the problem has been injuries, but the majority of the problem is coaching and execution. The Eagles linebackers and secondary have been depleted because of the injury bug. I said in the preseason that it was stupid to allow Brian Dawkins to walk in his free agency year. I guaranteed that he had at least two more good seasons left in him. Not only that, but he was the one constant in Philly’s ever-revolving-door in the secondary and he was a team leader. But they let Dawkins go to Denver, where he has played extremely well. Meanwhile, the Eagles back seven have been very vulnerable.

The coaching staff is another issue. It started with the death of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson in the off-season. I’ve long said that he was the best coach the Eagles had during the last ten years, and that includes the current coach and father-of-the-decade candidate Andy Reid. The defense, against decent offenses, hasn’t looked the same. They’re still blitzing, but they are not as effective. And remember, they haven’t faced the Cowboys or Giants yet. They still have to play the Broncos and Chargers. They still have to play Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Other than the Saints, who completely embarrassed the defense, they haven’t faced a lot of great offenses yet. This is a problem that’s only going to get worse. Reid is just a lousy coach, and Johnson’s replacement has yet to fill the void on Reid’s staff.

Offensively, it’s the same old story. Donovan McNabb is great one week and bad the next. McNabb still can’t stay healthy either. Brian Westbrook continues his career-long bout with the injury bug as well. Despite having two talented running backs and a decent offensive line, Reid and his brilliant offensive assistants continue to throw the ball more than just about every team in the league. And this year, they’ve even hired Michael Vick. Considering his past, there’s no more perfect city for Vick to call home than Philadelphia. He fits right in with the other criminals that reside there. However, it doesn’t appear that Vick fits in with the Eagles, since his impact has been almost non-existent.

Look, this game is going to probably be pretty ugly. If the Redskins somehow turn a minor miracle and win this game, I think it would be the upset of the season so far. Even more surprising than Philly’s loss last week. But with the Eagles penchant to blitz, and the Redskins MASH unit on the offensive line, there’s no way the Skins offense is going to do better this week than in the last few Sundays. And even if things are open downfield, what’s the likelihood that Campbell’s going to make plays? The Skins defense will keep them in the game, but the offense will probably let the team down again.

NFL Week 7: Overseas Travel Tips

2009-10-24T12:03:00.004-04:00

The overall record was once again great for Week 6 (9-4) but the record against the spread was literally strictly average (6-6-1). Here are the records so far:

Overall: 58-26 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 45-38-1

SUNDAY

San Diego Chargers (2-3)(-4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Did anyone ever check to see if Al Groh and Norv Turner are the same person? Has anyone ever seen them in the same room or stadium together? How many times can both coaches start poorly, get hot, finish around .500 and save their jobs before their employers decide to hire someone that’s competent?
Pick: Chargers

Indianapolis Colts (5-0)(-13) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
The Colts did not need the bye week to get ready for this game. In fact, they only really needed the amount of time a bus ride would take to St. Louis.
Pick: Colts

Chicago Bears (3-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Field
I really should have seen Cincy’s loss to Houston coming. Classic trap game. As for the Bears, I’m not sure what they saw in Jay Cutler that was worth giving him a 2-year extension. I’m not sure what part of their 3-2 record was that impressive. Kyle Orton (remember him?) is 6-0 in Denver. Seems like the wrong QB got the extension.
Pick: Bengals

Green Bay Packers (3-2)(-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
This one reeks of a game the Packers are going to give away. They simply aren’t that good. They are clearly the 3rd best team in their division. I won’t pick it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they slip up here.
Pick: Packers

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Brett Favre had his FIRST decent game of the season against the Ravens. You wouldn’t know that by listening to FOX, CBS, ESPN, CNN, CBC, NBC, the NRA or the IRS. But Favre finally showed that even 40-year quarterbacks can help win a game once and awhile. The Vikings run ends here, and the beginning of the “What’s Wrong with Favre” segments begin on all the ESPN shows.
Pick: Steelers

New England Patriots (4-2)(-14) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Wembley Stadium in London, England
Again with the England game. Ok, NFL. We all get it. You are trying to spread the game globally. Well done! Perhaps sending a winless team over to London for the 2nd time in three seasons isn’t the best way to sell American Football. Especially a winless team that’s forced to play an opponent who could have easily put up 80 points or more last week. By the way, is there any chance that Bill Belichick won't be allowed back in the country?
Pick: Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) vs. Houston Texans (3-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
This really isn’t fair. The NFL decides to put the two most schizo franchises on a field together and forces me to pick between the two. While the Texans have had some quizzical losses, they have yet to lose by 35 points at home, like the 49ers have. Two weeks ago I praised the 49ers for appearing to be relevant again. Then they stick up the joint against Atlanta. Give me Houston at home.
Pick: Texans

New York Jets (3-3)(-6.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-4)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Speaking of schizo, how about this matchup. The Jets get off to a 3-0 start (even though everyone knew they weren’t that good), then lose three straight. The most recent of which came at home to the Bills, a team that seemingly gave up on their season back in September. Mark Sanchez goes from the Sanch-ise to five interceptions in the span of 21 days. And the Jets aren’t even the most confusing team on the field in this game. The Raiders, after being blown out in consecutive weeks, completely embarrass the Eagles. Now I know the Eagles weren’t as good as their 3-1 record indicated, but under no circumstances should they have lost that game. So a team that can’t hold on to the ball has to make a cross-country trip to play a team that is among the worst run franchises in professional sports. I’m just closing my eyes and pointing randomly to make a pick at this point.
Pick: Jets

Buffalo Bills (2-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-3)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Here’s another one I don’t know what to do with. I could easily take Carolina since they get to face a Bills team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. But that’s the same Fitzpatrick that made fewer mistakes than Sanchez last week and somehow helped Buffalo win. I’m just going to play it safe.
Pick: Panthers, Bills cover

New Orleans Saints (5-0)(-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-3)
4:15 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
The Saints proved that they are far and away the best team in the NFC. Miami has proven throughout the season that they are strictly middle-of-the-pack in the AFC. However, Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this, so it should be much closer for New Orleans than their game was last week.
Pick: Saints

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)(-4.5)
4:15 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
Clearly Las Vegas has not been watching the Cowboys this season. They’ve had one decent game, and that was against the Buccaneers. They got dominated by Denver and the Giants. They should have lost to Kansas City. They played even with Carolina. The schedule has helped this team to 3-2. But it’s time to face it…despite all the talent on that roster, the Cowboys are a below average team.
Pick: Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) vs. New York Giants (5-1)(-7)
8:20 p.m. Giants Stadium
All the experts are usually quick to point out that the Cardinals can’t win on the East Coast. I used to be one of those people. However, Arizona has won their last two East Coast games, including that playoff win last season in Charlotte. The Cardinals get in trouble when they have to play a 1:00 p.m. game in this time zone. As you can see, that won’t be a problem for Arizona. As for the Giants, they were exposed last week in their first real test of the season. This is their second. The Cards are rolling, and a night game against the Giants shouldn’t stop that roll.
Pick: Cardinals

Bye Week: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

Chiefs at Redskins: Holding The Line

2009-10-17T11:34:00.004-04:00

Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) vs. Washington Redskins (2-3)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
There’s not a whole lot to say, so I’ll keep it short. Nothing less than two straight victories will save Jim Zorn’s job. The bye week is rapidly approaching, and unless they can pull off what seems to be a minor miracle by beating the Eagles next Monday, Dan Snyder appears ready to sink the season and start from scratch. On the plus side, Maryland Madness was this weekend. The Terps should be in the Top 25 and should be a fun team to watch. At least there’s that.

I hate to keep saying it, but this isn’t Zorn’s fault. I sound like a broken record at this point. Yes, there have been questions about clock management and in-game adjustments. But we all had the same questions about Joe Gibbs during his second go around. And I have a hard time blaming Dan Snyder. Sure he treats the fans like crap. But in terms of putting money into the team, you couldn’t ask for a better owner. He will buy a championship if he’s allowed to (and he may be able to next season). That’s all you can really ask for. I also root for the Orioles, whose owner always tries to go the cheap route and the team has been a laughingstock for a decade because of it. At least the Redskins are competitive most seasons. I never blame the owner for meddling with the team. It’s their millions and it’s their franchise. Only in the sports business is an owner “supposed to” send out all the paychecks and then keep his nose out of how the organization is run. If an owner of any other company did that, they’d be crazy and probably be bankrupt in no time flat.

I will remain on record as saying that Vinny Cerrato and Greg Blache (which I’ve gone over at great length) are the most to blame for this mess. Cerrato is here because of one reason: he’s a yes man. Snyder loves yes men. If Cerrato had any balls as a GM he would tell Snyder why it wasn’t such a good idea to sink $40 million into Adam Archuleta. He would stand up to Snyder and tell him to draft linemen instead of receivers. He would take responsibilities for some of the terrible moves he’s made instead of letting his coach twist in the wind. But he refuses to do any of that.

It’s because of Cerrato that the team had no capable backup to Chris Samuels last week. If they had one, the Redskins would have coasted to victory. They were up 17-2, and if they had depth at the offensive line, they would have run the Panthers into the ground. But they couldn’t. They couldn’t run or pass. Not with D’Anthony Batiste and Stephon Heyer as the two offensive tackles. Not with 350 pound (or 375…400…who knows) Mike Williams at guard. The only place the Skins could run was behind Casey Rabach and Derrick Dockery, and it didn’t take the Panthers long to figure out what the Skins were trying to do.

The offensive line was a problem last year. It was a problem in March, before free agency began. It was a problem in April before the draft. It was a problem during the summer, when teams made cutdowns and decent backups were on the market. Through it all, the Redskins and Cerrato decided to sign only Williams, who hadn’t played an NFL game in three seasons. Every Redskins fan could have told you that the main issue for the team was the offensive line. It wasn’t fixed in the off-season. I even said as much during my season preview. The Redskins were only going to play well as long as their offensive line was intact. They lost Randy Thomas a few weeks ago, and now Chris Samuels is going to be out until at least the bye week. I’m not saying that you have to have All-Pros waiting in the wings, but you have to have capable NFL bodies. Not Heyer, not Williams and not Batiste. This problem is on Cerrato. Period.

I said I would keep it short, so let’s move on the Chiefs. I expected Kansas City to finish around .500 this season. For those staring at their 0-5 record and laughing at me, a .500 finish could still happen. The Chiefs had to play the Ravens and the entire NFC East during the first six weeks of the season. Their loss to the Raiders was inexcusable (even though Matt Cassel didn’t play), but the other four losses were expected. And their schedule gets must easier the rest of the way. Kansas City is not as bad as their record indicates. They’ve been getting better week by week. They hung with the Giants for three quarters. They dominated the Cowboys and choked that game away. This really isn’t a bad team. They are a young team, but not a bad one.

The current problem for Kansas City is their former strength: the run game. The Chiefs had Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson in their primes. Holmes is long gone, and Johnson might as well be too. Johnson averages 4.4 yards per carry for his career, but is under 2.5 this season. The Chiefs line isn’t great, but the real problem is Johnson himself. The miles have finally caught up to him. Without him, or an effective backup (Jamaal Charles doesn’t count), the Chiefs offense is completely one dimensional. And since Cassel was hurt for the first few weeks of the season, even their passing game was dreadful.

Cassel is back, and close to 100% healthy. I expect the Chiefs to move the ball relatively well. The question will be how can the Redskins and their make-shift offensive line move against KC. Their secondary is well below NFL average, but their front seven is starting to come into their own. Again, they are young. But the talent is starting to show this season. Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey on the ends should be a force over the next five years for the Chiefs. Tamba Ali (who is hybrid who primarily plays OLB in KC’s 3-4 scheme), Demorrio Williams and Corey Mays also give the Chiefs hope of a solid linebacking corps in the future. And if Derrick Johnson’s head ever catches up to his natural talent, then this front seven is set until at least 2014.

This will probably be an ugly game in the first half. The Redskins will need at least a half to figure out what they can and cannot do with their offensive line. Kansas City will need at least a half to fool around with the run game until giving up and going to the air. It should be low-scoring and close, but what Redskins game isn’t? Hopefully the burgundy and gold can win this one, and try to save their season next week.

NFL Week 6: Not Winless, But Still Hopeless

2009-10-15T14:12:00.004-04:00

Another solid overall week (9-4) was combined with another lousy week against the spread (7-6). Eventually I’ll catch up to Vegas, but in the meantime, the records look like this:

Overall: 49-22 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 39-32

SUNDAY

Houston Texans (2-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I still have a feeling that the Bengals are just leading their poor fans along until they collapse. This would be a classic letdown game for them. However, the Bengals have three straight home games and a bye week, so they don’t have to play on the road for another month. In other news, I think I’ve finally figured out the Jekyll and Hyde Texans.
Pick: Bengals

Cleveland Browns (1-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Remove the Browns from the winless list. I’m willing to bet it will be their only win this season. I think Cleveland truly is the worst team in the NFL this year. The problem for Cleveland is they still need a quarterback, but they’ve already invested so much money into that position already. Brady Quinn has not just been the failure I predicted; he’s been a tremendous failure. So can the Browns actually invest more money in a QB when they also have so many other gaping holes?
Pick: Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Again, the day of reckoning is coming for the Vikings. They will not win the Super Bowl with their Narcissistic quarterback. It just won’t be here. Meanwhile, the Ravens continue to cost themselves games with idiotic penalties. Why in the world is Frank Walker committing a five-yard pass interference penalty on a 3rd-and-16 pass late in the game? I think it’s fair to say the Ravens are the dumbest team in the NFL.
Pick: Vikings

St. Louis Rams (0-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
The Jaguars just lost by 41 points to a 1-3 football team…and they’re favored by 9.5 points! Yes, that’s how bad the Rams are.
Pick: Jaguars

New York Giants (5-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
This will be the Giants first trip to New Orleans since 2005. Oh wait, that “road” game was played at the Meadowlands. Despite Hurricane Katrina, the NFL still looks ridiculous for allowing the Giants to play nine home games that season while everyone else had to play eight. By the way, the Giants won the NFC East by exactly one game that season. As for 2009, this will be the Giants first true road test, and I don’t think they’re up for it.
Pick: Saints

Carolina Panthers (1-3)(-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Your guess is as good as mine. I guess I’ll go with the team that actually managed to beat the Redskins.
Pick: Panthers

Detroit Lions (1-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2)(-14)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
I know that the Lions stink. I know the Packers had two weeks to prepare for this game. I know the game is being played in Green Bay. Still, something smells about this line and about this Packers team. Like Dallas, I have a feeling that the Packers continue to be overrated. I had them going 7-9 in my preseason predictions, and it appears that they are still headed straight on that course.
Pick: Packers, Lions cover

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-3)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
After the 49ers laid an egg and were exposed last weekend, this game takes on added importance in the race for the NFC West title. And by “race” I mean whichever team screws up the least for the next 11 weeks. I haven’t taken an upset yet, so what the heck.
Pick: Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)(-13.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-4)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Remember when I said the Raiders weren’t that bad. Ignore that. They are that bad.
Pick: Eagles

Buffalo Bills (1-4) vs. New York Jets (3-2)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Speaking of bad, here come the Buffalo Bills. I’m sure the point has been made several times this week, but this is a team that allowed Derek Anderson to only complete 2 of 17 passes for 23 yards…AND LOST! TO THE BROWNS! I don’t know if it gets much worse than that.
Pick: Jets, Bills cover

Tennessee Titans (0-5) vs. New England Patriots (3-2)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
More signs that Tom Brady still isn’t close to being 100% and the Patriots are in trouble: Brady has a completion percentage of 61.4%. That would be lower than Jason Campbell, Seneca Wallace, Kevin Kolb and Kyle Orton. It’s only hair above Brady Quinn. Yikes.
Pick: Patriots

Chicago Bears (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-1)(-3)
8:20 p.m. Georgia Dome
This should be a great Sunday Night game and an important game for both teams. Despite playing well, both continue to lose ground in their divisions to Minnesota and New Orleans respectively. The loser of this game probably finds themselves down at least two games in the loss column. It’s probably more important for the Falcons to take this one. They have already lost to the Saints once, where as Chicago at least has two later chances against Minnesota.
Pick: Falcons

MONDAY

Denver Broncos (5-0) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-2)(-3.5)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
I still don’t think I’ve taken Denver to win yet this season. The defense does seem to be legitimate, but I’m still not buying this smoke and mirrors offense. This is also the same Denver team that lost a three game lead with three to play last season. So we’ll see how the Broncos do in the second half of the season.
Pick: Chargers

Bye Week: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco

Redskins at Panthers: Consulting Firm

2009-10-10T12:15:00.004-04:00

Washington Redskins (2-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Well, the Redskins won at least. And for at least one game, or at least one half, there was moderate improvement. The offense that showed promise last season showed up in the second half. We not only saw a touchdown drive, we saw a big pass play for the second week in a row. More on the offense in minute. Most importantly, we saw the defense play up to their capabilities. Not counting the touchdown pass, since the Buccaneers drive started at the Washington 10, the defense allowed only two real drives the entire game and surrendered six points. They stopped Cadillac Williams and company from running on them. They pressured Josh Johnson. I know Johnson is essentially a rookie, but he made some very good decisions to pull the ball down and run (however, he looked scared to throw the ball). It’s not a great measuring stick for the Redskins defense, but they at least put pressure on the quarterback and got off the field on 3rd down. It was some combination of the Bucs line being terrible and Greg Blache (who is no longer talking to the media) finally taking some chances with his decent front seven.

Now to the big story over the past week. The offense looked good in the second half, but apparently not good enough to stop Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato from hiring Sherman Lewis as an “offensive consultant”. I’m not sure what that means, and I’m not sure the Redskins know what this means. Jim Zorn was not consulted about the consultant before he was hired. As of Wednesday, Lewis had no set role in the Redskins coaching system. It had many people confused for several days.

Now, I figured out in two minutes what it took the local sports media two days to realize. Lewis was brought in as a security blanket and a back-up option for Snyder in case he wants to relieve Zorn of his coaching duties. One of two things are going to happen. The first option is that Zorn and Sherman Smith are going to get their offense clicking and the Redskins are going to start winning games. If that occurs, Lewis hangs around Redskins Park the rest of the season, gets a big fat paycheck from Snyder, is thanked for his service, and sent on his way at the end of the year. The second option is that the offense continues to struggle, the Redskins drop two of their next three games, Snyder gets rid of Zorn and promotes Blache (ugh) for the rest of the season, and Lewis becomes Blache’s offensive coordinator. The hiring takes place after another overall lackluster performance by the offense, and three weeks before the bye week (which would be the most likely time for Snyder to make a move). I heard columnist Mike Wise say that Snyder was simply “hedging his bets”. Lewis is one of the godfathers of the West Coast Offense, so I’m sure he has some insight to share with the rest of the class. If things get real ugly in the next month, then Lewis has had about 30 days to familiarize himself with the players and personnel, and can be ready to call plays for his good friend Blache. There’s also a third option. With Sherman Smith already on the coaching staff, maybe Snyder wants to start building a coaching staff of just people named Sherman. It’s a reach, but I still leave it out there as a possibility.

In essence, this was the right move by Snyder, but it was done in typical-Snyder fashion. Let’s say the Redskins lose two of their next three. The Skins are 3-4 going into the bye week. Zorn gets fired. In the NFL, 3-4 is not nearly bad enough to give up on the season. You certainly don’t want to tell an already unhappy fan base that you are conceding the season in the first week of November. It’s also likely that there will be a host of 9-7/8-8 type teams competing for the last two playoff spots in the NFC. Whatever the case may be, if Snyder wants to go through with a change, then it makes sense to start preparing for it now so the rest of the season doesn’t go down the drain.

But, there are better ways to do it. You don’t send Cerrato out to a press conference admitting that he doesn’t know what roll Lewis will serve. Hell, make up a roll. Just don’t tell the media that you don’t know. Secondly, don’t have Cerrato doing the press conference in the first place. Snyder should have been out there himself, and while announcing the hiring, should have given Zorn a vote of confidence at the same time. Finally, it’s common courtesy to at least inform the head coach that this is about to happen. You can’t just drop it on him.

Whatever the case may be, it added a lot of unnecessary drama to a team that doesn’t need any more of it. It complicated what will be another difficult week for the Redskins, as they face their toughest test since opening week. In the standings, the Carolina Panthers are easy to ignore at 0-3. The offense has 12 turnovers in three games. The defense is ranked 23rd in the league and has given up more than 350 yards of offense a game. John Fox, for the first time in a long time, is on the hot seat. Things may be uglier in Charlotte than they are in Ashburn and Landover.

However, this game would not be easy for any team, especially a Redskins team that always plays down to its competition. The Panthers lost their three games to Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas. So it’s not as if they’ve played three sisters of the poor. The Panthers get this game at home, where they were 8-0 during the regular season last year. Plus, the Panthers are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. One of my favorite stats continues to be the one that focuses on the win percentage of teams coming off their bye playing teams that don’t come off one. The team that had the bye week wins nearly 75% of the time. So, when the Redskins had to play four teams coming off their bye week in 2006, it was if the schedule already handed them three losses.

Just like the Redskins, I think the Panthers are simply too talented to struggle like this all season. Jake Delhomme’s problems have been well documented. He’s been a deer in headlights since his five interception performance against Arizona in the playoffs. However, this team still has Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (who may not play due to an achilles injury) on offense. That’s a load of talent. Defensively, Carolina has showed signs of putting things together in the last two weeks after a rough debut against the Eagles. They too have plenty of talent with Julius Peppers, Na’il Diggs, Jon Beason and Chris Gamble still on the squad. No, this isn’t the same team that had a deadly pass rush just a couple of seasons ago. But they are still fast, and they still apply plenty of pressure on the quarterback.

The big question mark is Delhomme. This is a quarterback who has been to the playoffs several times. He led the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII and played well in the game. He’s had several arm surgeries, but has come back with success each time. He has a lifetime completion percentage around 60%. He has 34 more touchdowns than interceptions. It’s not as if he’s unproven. It’s not as if he’s never had success. I don’t fully comprehend his recent struggles. It just seems like he hasn’t been the same quarterback since the end of last season. But it’s hard to argue that he’s a good quarterback right now. He has two touchdowns and seven picks. He has never been mobile. Carolina’s line is not what it once was. All a defense has to do is get someone in his face, and he tends to force his passes. Are you listening Blache?

Once again, the NFL has handed the Redskins a team with a quarterback who can’t move and tends to make bad decisions if rushed. You saw what the Redskins defense was capable of last week when they pressured Johnson. Blitzing Delhomme should be a no-brainer. Offensively, the Redskins HAVE to establish the run. The Panthers are dead last in the NFL in rush defense. They’ve been gashed for nearly 183 yards per game on the ground. This is the game for Mike Sellers to finally start living up to that contract extension he just signed. He’s been non-existent since signing it, and he’s been too busy picking fights with Clinton Portis in the locker room. Time for Mike to put up or shut up. The Redskins must run the ball to win this game. So with the vultures circling, maybe the Redskins bread and butter will finally show up and lead the offense to some success.

NFL Week 5: Dropped The Ball, Blame The Flag

2009-10-08T15:07:00.005-04:00

It was a very good week, as I picked a little conservatively and it worked out. I went a terrific 11-2 overall (and one of the games I got wrong was the Denver-Dallas game…so I don’t mind the “L” there) and 9-4 against the spread. So the records look much better this week:

Overall: 40-18 (69%)
vs. Spread: 32-26

SUNDAY

Minnesota Vikings (4-0)(-10) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
For those sick of hearing Brett Favre talk, I’ll try to spare you. However, I had to comment on one exchange from ESPN before the game started. I avoided the majority of the coverage and game, but I tuned just in time to hear Michelle Tafoya ask Mike McCarthy: “What have you done to prepare yourself for when you talk to Favre before the game.” If that’s not the most self-indulgent quote of all-time, I don’t know what is. The gall of Tafoya and ESPN to assume McCarthy wasted his time to actually think through what he would say to the opposing quarterback during warm-ups. McCarthy mocked the question and walked away. He’s still a lousy coach, but he moves up a peg in my book.
Pick: Vikings

Dallas Cowboys (2-2)(-7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Say it after me: The Cowboys are a below average team. Tony Romo is not even close to being a Top 10 NFL quarterback. Jerry Jones is still the worst owner in the game. Repeat as needed.
Pick: Cowboys, Chiefs cover

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)(-14.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Donovan McNabb returns (until his next injury) and Josh Johnson showed enough against the Redskins to start opposite of him (until Raheem Morris goes to Josh Freeman, which should be any day now).
Pick: Eagles

Oakland Raiders (1-3) vs. New York Giants (4-0)(-16)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Giants are getting 16 points? We haven’t seen lines like this since the 2007 New England Patriots. The Giants are good, but they are not that good. Nowhere near it in fact. Plus Eli Manning may or may not play and certainly won’t be 100%. I know that JaMarcus Russell couldn’t hit Gilbert Brown with a screen pass, but still…16 points is an awful lot.
Pick: Giants, Raiders cover

Cleveland Browns (0-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-3)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The loser of the game might as well just fire the coach/cut their crazy wide receiver/start their 3rd string quarterback/move to Toronto. Fill in the blank for the appropriate team.
Pick: Bills

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)(-8)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
According to the Ravens, they haven’t lost a game in the past three seasons. They only have wins taken away by the referees. Seriously, for a team that embraces its thuggish side, I’ve never seen a bigger collection of crybabies. I have an idea, if you want to stop the officials from throwing flags, stop hitting the opposing quarterbacks in the head! That’s been a penalty for over a decade. You can’t do it. It’s a penalty. Stop blaming the fucking refs. Try signing receivers that can catch a pass that hits them right between the numbers.
Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)(-10.5) vs. Detroit Lions (1-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
This is another line that concerns me. The Steelers played like gangbusters last week (at least for three quarters) and proved that they are still the best team in the AFC North and still among the AFC elite. Something tells me that they nap through most of this one.
Pick: Steelers

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-1)(-2)
4:05 p.m. Candlestick Park
Before we get too carried away with the 49ers, let’s see if they can defend their home turf against a team making a 3,000-mile road trip. I’ll take the Falcons, if for nothing else, because they are coming off their bye week and have two weeks to prepare.
Pick: Falcons

New England Patriots (3-1)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (4-0)
4:15 p.m.
Denver’s first four opponents were 6-10. Their next four opponents are 10-6. Let’s see if that miracle play continues to carry this team.
Pick: Patriots

Houston Texans (2-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-2)(-5)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Finally, I got a Texans game right! I know they were playing the Raiders, but I finally got off the schnide. Still, I can’t completely figure this team out. Again, I’ll play it safe and take the team coming off their bye week.
Pick: Cardinals

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-3)(Pick-em)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
The Jaguars have averaged just over 47,000 fans in their first two home games this season. And that’s the announced attendance. I have a feeling that the actual attendance is well under 40,000. Since they’re already on the West Coast, maybe they should save themselves the longer trip and just start playing in Los Angeles.
Pick: Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts (4-0)(-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-4)
8:20 p.m. LP Field
Don’t look now, but the two teams I predicted in the Super Bowl are a combined 8-0 and playing teams this week that are a combined 1-7. Right now, the Colts have an easy path to the Super Bowl. The Titans, who figured to be their toughest competition in the AFC South, are already four games behind them. The darkhorse Texans are already two back. A win here, and the Colts can pretty much cruise to a division title and a certain bye week in the postseason.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

New York Jets (3-1)(-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-3)
8:30 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
Last chance for the Dolphins to make a stand before they fall three games behind both New York and New England. I hate to say I told you so, but I definitely saw this 1-3 start coming. I also called Mark Sanchez having a bad week against the Saints. Let’s stop anointing him the next New York savior until he gets through an entire season.
Pick: Jets

Bye Week: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego

Buccaneers at Redskins: If I've Told You Once, I've Told You 1,000 Times...

2009-10-03T11:03:00.002-04:00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) vs. Washington Redskins (1-2)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, it was embarrassing. No, I haven’t been able to watch any football for the past week. I honestly don’t know what happened in most of last week’s later games. Other than checking my fantasy football team, I’ve pretty much stayed away from the NFL as a whole. Losing to a team on a 19-game losing streak will do that. And as bad as the Lions were and are, it’s not like the majority of Redskins didn’t see this coming. This is what they do. They win games they shouldn’t. They lose games they shouldn’t. They make terrible opponents look like world beaters. Yet, they manage to usually give upper echelon teams decent games.

Now it’s time to look ahead. It beats looking back. It’s time to start that “Redskins fan mentality” of convincing yourself that your team is better than they probably are. Maybe that’s what I’m about to do. Maybe I’m just looking at the schedule and still being optimistic. Maybe I’m just telling it like it is. Maybe a combination of all three. Coming in to the season, I figured the Skins would be 3-2 after five games. I figured the wins would come against St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa. The losses would be to New York and Carolina. Well, Carolina is a lot worse than anyone thought they would be. The Skins next three games are against Tampa, Carolina and Kansas City. Combined record: 0-9. Each of those teams, along with Cleveland and St. Louis, could make a case of being the worst in the NFL right now. Of course to go 3-2 (and possibly 4-2), the Redskins would actually have to show up against inferior opponents. Which we know they won’t do. I don’t care if they win each game by a point, but just win the damn games. These are absolutely lousy teams. As embarrassing as the Detroit loss is (And many Redskins like to point out that the Lions should be better this season than last and the loss isn’t that embarrassing in the big picture. I agree to some extent. Detroit will probably win three or four games, and at the end of the season, that loss won’t look any worse than the losses last season to St. Louis and Cincinnati. Still, it’s no excuse. The Skins should have won that game handedly.), it’s just one loss. All it does is it eliminates some wiggle room for the Redskins in the second half of the season. They just have to win a game like Carolina to make up for it. It’s too early to be a season-crushing defeat. Only if the Skins allow it to ruin their season will the loss to Detroit actually ruin their season.

Just like the last two weeks, it’s the same problems that continue to plague the Redskins. Jim Zorn refuses to commit to the run. I’m not sure why. Clinton Portis had a rough first half (-2 yards), but that’s mostly because he only carried the ball four times. Four times! Against a terrible run defense! Moreover, the real problem continues to be the defense. Statistically, the defense is in the top half of the league in most categories. However, there is one category that proves the point I’ve been trying to make the last two weeks. The Redskins defense is dead last in the NFL on 3rd down. Dead last. Worse than Detroit. Worse than Tampa Bay. Worse than Cleveland. They allow opponents to convert 51% of their 3rd downs. The defense bends rather than breaks, but they simply cannot get off the field.

Why is that? Well, I’m glad you asked. Just go back over my last two game previews. The Redskins refuse to blitz. More specifically, Greg Blache refuses to blitz. The Redskins are now blitzing slightly less than 18% of the time on passing plays (which is actually up compared to the last two weeks). The NFL average is usually somewhere around 33-37%. This is why the Lions, quarterbacked by a rookie who had 1 TD and 5 INT in his first two games, were able to go on scoring drives of 99, 74, 86 and 85 yards.

It really boggles the mind that Blache is not only allowed to do this, but no one in the media is calling him out on it. In fact, it’s Washington’s defense that is praised while Washington’s offense is thrown under the bus. I really think the offense is close to clicking; they’ve just been a hair off here and there in the first three weeks. But the defense is nowhere close. The rumor is that Blache has no confidence in his secondary (More fuel has been added to that fire this week with the benching of Chris Horton. Horton has played tremendously well, had one bad play last week, and will now be sitting on the bench watching Reed Doughty play. I don’t understand that one. Maybe Horton is the scapegoat for his costly pass interference call. But give me a safety that makes the right play 98% of the time over a guy like Doughty who is strictly average). Since Blache has no confidence in his secondary, he drops linebackers and ends back into coverage to compensate. I don’t think the Skins secondary is other-worldly, but they are still a good unit. I simply think Blache is compensating for his lack of play-calling or play-designing ability. Either way, the proof is in the pudding. The Redskins allowed Detroit to go 9/11 on 3rd down in the first half last week. I don’t care if it’s New England or New Orleans or the ’88 49ers. No NFL team should be able to go 9/11 on 3rd down over the course of a half. Certainly not the 2009 Detroit Lions. I’m sick and tired of watching other teams convert 3rd-and-5, 3rd-and-6, 3rd-and-10, etc…

Furthermore, Blache had the perfect opportunity in the first three games to pressure the quarterback. It’s not like he’s playing a quarterback like Donovan McNabb or Drew Brees that have mobility and can beat you outside the pocket. He played Eli “Big Stiff” Manning, Marc “Even Bigger Stiff and Injury Risk” Bulger, and a rookie quarterback playing in his third NFL game. I don’t think the NFL could have created a better three game stretch for an aggressive defensive coordinator. Unfortunately, the Redskins are stuck with Blache. I never think firing coaches or coordinators in midseason helps. It’s usually a major impediment for a team to overcome (the three teams that fired their offensive coordinators right before the beginning of the season are 0-9 and look even worse than their records indicate). But if Zorn, or Vinny Cerrato or even Dan Snyder were to fire Blache today, I would rejoice. Defensively, things can’t get much worse.

As for their game against the Bucs, the opportunity will once again be there to blitz. It's as if the football Gods took pity on the Redskins, and are now letting them face a quarterback who has never started a game in the NFL. 2-year QB Josh Johnson will get the nod over Byron Leftwich (who torched the Skins last year while with the Steelers). Johnson is out of the University of San Diego, and was a guy I was hoping the Skins would draft. He set numerous school and I-AA records while with the Toreros. Unfortunately, that success has not yet translated to the NFL. Aside from the last drive of last week's blowout loss to the Giants, Johnson has not seen the field.

So what better way for the Skins to get healthy, at least defensively, then against a team that hasn't scored in almost five quarters and is facing a quarterback that has never taken a meaningful NFL snap? I can't think of any. Will Blache choose to bring pressure? His track record says no.

The Bucs would be the worst team in the league if not for Cleveland. They have a running game with Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham. After that, there's not much here to remind you of the Bucs teams from the late 90's and early 00's. We already know the passing game is a mess. The once fearsome defense has been completely torn apart in an effort to rebuild. The secondary, once a model of efficiency while playing the dreaded "Tampa 2", is now in shambles. Other than Cleveland and maybe Dallas, there is no team more susceptible to the deep ball than Tampa Bay.

On top of that, you won't find either Tony Dungy or Jon Gruden on the sideline. Instead it's 32-year-old Raheem Morris. Morris may be the least qualified coach in the NFL. He was an assistant defensive coach with the Buccaneers from 2003-05. He spent 2006 as defensive coordinator for Kansas State. Then he spent 2007 and 2008 as the defensive backs coach for the Bucs. Instead of getting some experience as a head coach at a college level, or as a coordinator at the NFL level, Morris somehow made the jump from Manhattan, KS to head coach of a professional football team. Not sure how that happened exactly. There is definitely a step missing somewhere. Either way, it's been a disaster so far. Morris was one of those coaches who fired his offensive coordinator weeks before the season started. Tampa kept close for 3 quarters against Dallas during Week 1, but were blown out by Buffalo and the Giants the last two weeks. This is not a good football team.

So we know how the Redskins should play to win this game. It's the same way they should have played the last two weeks. The only question that remains is if they will learn from their mistakes and finally start playing up to their strengths. Common logic says they will, recent history says they won't.

NFL Week 4: Houston Is Giving Me Problems

2009-10-01T12:42:00.001-04:00

I continue to do well overall, but lousy against the spread. After an 11-4 week, I’m now 29-16 overall. But after an 8-7 against the spread, that record now stands at 23-22. Ugh.

SUNDAY

Baltimore Ravens (3-0) vs. New England Patriots (2-1)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Ravens opponents combined record: 2-7. Let’s everyone settle down before anointing them as the best team in the NFL. They haven’t played New England, Indy, Minnesota or Pittsburgh yet. I don’t care how lousy the Steelers may be, they have the Ravens number.
Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (0-3)(-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
1:00 p.m. Alltel Stadium
Only five teams that have started 0-3 have ever made the playoffs. With games against Indianapolis and New England coming up, it doesn’t look like Tennessee will be the sixth.
Pick: Jaguars

Oakland Raiders (1-2) vs. Houston Texans (1-2)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
“Every season, there is one team that I can never predict. I think the Texans are going to be that team this season.”

That’s what I said last week, and now I’m 0-3 when it comes to picking the Texans. I’d better get this one right.
Pick: Texans

Detroit Lions (1-2) vs. Chicago Bears (2-1)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Ugh, pass. Still too soon. I’ll deal with this later in the week.
Pick: Bears

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)(-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
As bad as Tampa has looked, they’ve at least played a brutal opening schedule and managed to keep two of their three games close. No one in the NFL has looked as bad as Cleveland, losing their games by 14, 21 and 31. Those point differentials are no flukes. The Browns have looked every bit as bad as those stats suggest. Look for those numbers to continue throughout the season.
Pick: Bengals

New York Giants (3-0)(-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
The Chiefs continue their long march to 0-5 (maybe 0-6…but that depends on that sixth team still existing by the time that game comes around). I picked KC to finish around .500 this season, but I did so assuming that Larry Johnson still had another 1,100 to 1,200 yards in his legs. He may not have 200 yards left in him.
Pick: Giants

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-0)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
I’ll give the Seahawks credit. They managed to hang around last week with Seneca Wallace as their quarterback. They would have won that game if not for some shody field goal kicking. Nonetheless, that was last week. They were at home for a 4:15 start. They were playing the Bears (who the jury is still very much out on). Much different story this week.
Pick: Colts

New York Jets (3-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-0)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
You know your offense is good when you put up 27 points on the road and the media says you “struggled”. So yeah, the Saints offense is very, very good. Futhermore, it appears that Sean Payton found a defense in the offseason. Holding Buffalo to only seven points in decent weather is very impressive.
Pick: Saints

Buffalo Bills (1-2)(-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-3)
4:05 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
I may not have gotten a lot right during my preseason predictions, but my prediction that Miami would come back down to Earth couldn’t have been more right on the money. Now the Dolphins have to deal with a pissed off Bills team that gets Marshawn Lynch back this week, and Miami’s starting quarterback is now Chad Henne. I’m confused as to why the line is so low.
Pick: Bills

St. Louis Rams (0-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
I’ll tell you what, I now believe the 49ers are a legit threat to win the NFC West. They proved more to me in their loss against Minnesota than in either of their wins this season. A win here, and the 49ers are already 3-0 in the division, and their toughest remaining division game is at home. Naturally, they’ll make me look stupid and barely squeak by the Rams.
Pick: 49ers, Rams cover

Dallas Cowboys (2-1)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (3-0)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
No one, and I mean NO ONE, is buy the Broncos 3-0 start. They had the miracle against Cincinnati, followed by two easy wins over Cleveland and Oakland. There’s a reason that the average Cowboys are favored on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to play in.
Pick: Cowboys

San Diego Chargers (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)(-6)
8:20 p.m. Heinz Field
It’s desperation time for Pittsburgh. I knew the Steelers wouldn’t repeat as Super Bowl champs, but they look completely uninterested. There is no way the Steelers teams from the past would have blown an 11-point 4th quarter lead against Cincinnati.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY

Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-0)(-3.5)
8:30 p.m. Metrodome
Lost in the frantic finish against San Francisco are a lot of truths the media loves to gloss over. First, Brett Favre’s “amazing” last second touchdown throw was in reality a terrible throw that his receiver bailed him out on. And secondly, if Favre didn’t play so poorly during the rest of the game, then the Vikings would never have needed a last second touchdown throw…they would have won the game handedly. Minnesota will get theirs eventually, but it won’t be against over-rated Green Bay.
Pick: Vikings

Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia

Redskins at Lions: When It Rains, It Pours

2009-09-27T00:46:00.003-04:00

Washington Redskins (1-1) vs. Detroit Lions (0-2)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
The fans are booing, the media is panicking and the sky is falling. And the Redskins won. Imagine what it would be like if they’d lost.

I think it’s fair to say that we were all expecting more from the Skins in their game last weekend. A 9-7 win over the lowly Rams is hardly convincing and hardly reassuring. It’s become painfully obvious that there are issues with play-calling on both sides of the ball. The decision making and execution has to get much, much better inside the redzone or this team will continue to fail. The Redskins must make a concerted effort to pressure the quarterback, or better teams will take advantage of it. The team must put their play-makers in a position to do so, or it will quickly become a wasted year.

However, to say that the season is already over is a bit too much. I think the rumors of the Redskins 2009-10 demise are a bit premature. If you looked around the NFL last week, there were several curious results and there are several teams in a much deeper hole than Washington. Green Bay was dominated at home by an inferior Cincinnati team. Pittsburgh’s defense looked mortal without Troy Polamalu, a problem that will probably hang with the team until he returns. Tom Brady’s knee is certainly not as healthy as the Patriots are letting us know, and the future of that team and its quarterback is up in the air. The Titans and Panthers are 0-2, but you don’t see the media burying either of those teams, despite playing in two tough divisions. But according to everyone else, the league’s biggest problem spot is here in the District.

Suddenly, the Detroit Lions have become the popular pick this weekend to beat the Redskins. These are the same Detroit Lions that were 0-16 last season. The same Lions that are on a 19-game losing streak. The same Lions that have already been outscored by 32 points in only two games (which is bad enough to be 30th in the league in point differential). The same Lions that are starting a rookie quarterback with a rookie head coach in charge. The same Lions that have gone through general managers with a higher frequency than Dan Snyder has gone through head coaches. The same Lions that possess maybe two players that the rest of the league would want on their team. These are the Lions that are being touted on ESPN and other networks as almost a sure thing to upset the Redskins this week.

The Lions do have several things going for them. First, as long as they keep losing, there is the ever growing pressure on their opponents to not be the team that allows Detroit to snap their streak. No team wants to be in the background of a SportsCenter highlite as the Lions are celebrating on the field. The pressure was on Minnesota last week, and it took them two quarters of football to overcome it. Detroit has no pressure. If they lose, so what? They’ve already gone 0-16. It can’t get any worse. What’s another loss…or two…or five?

Second, the Lions have to be looking at last week’s film from the Skins and thinking “This is our week…these guys are ripe for the taking.” They also have to be glancing at their schedule and they probably see no winnable games until they host the Rams on November 1st. Even though I think some of the so-called experts have gone out of control with their “Lions will win this week” predictions, I will admit that of the four games leading up to their meeting with St. Louis, this game provides the Lions their best chance to snap their streak before then. So a little desperation mixed with a little confidence can be a dangerous combination.

Finally, the Lions now employ Jon Jansen. Jansen spent the last decade here in Washington. If anyone knows the Redskins, and the strengths and weaknesses of all the players, it’s Jansen. I’m sure his time here will help provide Detroit with a decent blueprint in how to beat the Redskins.

Before you start resembling Chicken Little and go running for your umbrella, remember that these are still the Lions. There is a reason they haven’t won since mid-December of 2007. They aren’t good. They are terrible. They may be the worst team assembled since the Buccaneers of the mid-70’s. Sure the Redskins have their problems. Sure there are now question marks on the offensive line with the loss of Randy Thomas. Sure Clinton Portis’ ankle injuries are disconcerting considering it’s only Week 3. But the Lions issues and problems far exceed those of the Redskins. They have NO offensive line. Their rookie quarterback has resembled Alex Smith much more than Matt Ryan in his first two games. The Lions defense is awful against both the pass and the run. And most importantly for the Redskins, the Lions defense finished dead last in redzone efficiency last season. For an offense that has had major trouble punching the ball into the endzone, that’s a welcomed sight.

Ultimately, this game is going to come down the Redskins ability to run the ball and finish drives inside the redzone. The Skins haven’t gone three and out a whole lot this year. They have no problems picking up a few first downs, changing field position and moving the ball. They just can’t get out of their own way inside the opponent's 20. A lot of that has to do with the play-calling. Some of that is just poor execution, especially with the running game. Jim Zorn must change the strategy in the redzone. They were in there four times against the Rams, and they ran each time on first down. Of the 16 plays run in the redzone, nine were runs, four were passes and three were field goals. One of those passes was a bizarre half-back pass. The five-yard line is not the place to get cute. Again, Detroit is a team that has a terrible redzone defense. I think the Redskins will click soon, and this defense may be the catalyst.

As with the last two weeks, putting pressure on the quarterback is the defensive key. Young Matthew Stafford has looked ordinary at best. But they shouldn’t let him have time to find Calvin Johnson. If they do, I’m sure he’ll be able to hit him a few times. The earlier he gets hit, the more likely he’ll be to make mistakes for the rest of the game.

There is always an uneasy feeling going into a game like this if you are a Redskins fan. This is a team that routinely makes easy games hard. They haven’t won a game by more than eight points since Zorn started here. The job security questions for Zorn have already been raised. Most of it is the media feeding itself and convincing themselves that he’s is actually on thin ice. They already have their columns written if the Skins somehow drop this one. They’ll take their shots at the Redskins and Snyder, and they’ll try to run Zorn out of town. They are prepared for the sky to fall. Does Zorn have an umbrella?

NFL Week 3: Oh Brother

2009-09-25T13:04:00.001-04:00

After a pedestrian Week 2, I’m now 18-12 on the season overall, and an ugly and even 15-15 against the spread. It’s rare that I do worse in Week 2 than I do in Week 1, but I have a feeling this is going to be a weird season.

SUNDAY

Tennessee Titans (0-2) vs. New York Jets (2-0)(-3)
1:00 pm Giants Stadium
The Jets are getting pretty big for their britches. I’m still not buying this 2-0 start, nor would I be really worried about Tennessee’s 0-2 start. Unless they go 0-3.
Pick: Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) vs. Houston Texans (1-1)(-3.5)
1:00 pm Reliant Stadium
Every season, there is one team that I can never predict. I think the Texans are going to be that team this season. On paper, they should win this one. They get a Jaguars team that just got embarrassed at home by Arizona, a team that almost never wins anywhere near the East Coast. Furthermore, the Texans have this game in Houston and they are coming off an impressive and important win. However on paper, they should have beaten the Jets two weeks ago and probably should have lost last week. Oh Gary Kubiak, don’t do this to me all year.
Pick: Texans

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)(-9)
1:00 pm Lincoln Financial Field
Look, I know the Chiefs aren’t going to be good this season. My 8-8 prediction may have been WAY off. But there is no reason the Eagles should be favored by more than three or four against anyone without Donovan McNabb and potentially without Brian Westbrook.
Pick: Eagles, Chiefs cover

Cleveland Browns (0-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (2-0)(-13.5)
1:00 pm M&T Bank Stadium
So I wonder if Eric Mangini still thinks Brady Quinn should start over Derek Anderson. 18-31 for 161 yards and a pick is a terrible day against any defense. Against the Broncos defense, that’s an absolute joke.
Pick: Ravens, Browns cover

New York Giants (2-0)(-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)
1:00 pm Raymond James Stadium
So FOX has a new sitcom starring Michael Strahan. I think it’s called “Brothers”. It might as well be called “Canceled”. Is that really the best they could come up with? Really? This passes as entertainment? I don’t know what’s more shocking…that someone had an idea to use Ol’ Gaptooth in a sitcom, or that several people green-lighted the idea and actually allowed it on air. What does the director think of this monstrosity? What about his co-stars (and I use the term “star” very loosely here)? I can only imagine how that conversation went:

Studio Exec: We think you’d be perfect for our new sitcom.
Random Actor: Really? That’s great! What’s it about?
Studio Exec: About a football player who falls from grace and is forced to move back in with his parents.
Random Actor: Wow, that sounds interesting. Where do I sign!?!
Studio Exec: Right here. Thanks for coming in.
Random Actor: Thanks for having me. By the way, who is starring in this show?
Studio Exec: We got a great lead for this sitcom. You may have heard of him. His name is Michael Strahan.
Random Actor: Huh…what? Wait a minute, can I have that contract back…

The over/under on the amount of episodes has got to be 3.5. And that might be really generous. I can’t imagine anyone would want to watch this crap on a Friday night.
Pick: Giants

Green Bay Packers (1-1)(-6.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-2)
1:00 pm Edward Jones Dome
Boy the Packers got a gift schedule. Start with the Bears at home, followed by the Bengals at home, then the miserable Rams. Except they forgot to show up for their game against Cincinnati.
Pick: Packers

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-0)(-7)
1:00 pm Metrodome
Reason #1759 why Brett Favre should quit: He won’t be the best quarterback in this game…and the other quarterback is Shaun Hill.
Pick: Vikings

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) vs. New England Patriots (1-1)(-4)
1:00 pm Gillette Stadium
Well, this game could tell us a few things. Are the Falcons for real and not a one year fluke? More importantly, is Tom Brady still hurt and are the Patriots in trouble this season? Besides the last three minutes of the Buffalo game, the Pats offense has looked even worse than last season.
Pick: Patriots

Chicago Bears (1-1)(-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
4:05 pm Qwest Field
Until further notice, I won’t be picking Seattle. And that further notice entails Seneca Wallace not sniffing the starting quarterback role.
Pick: Bears

New Orleans Saints (2-0)(-6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-1)
4:05 pm Ralph Wilson Stadium
This game will take four hours because neither defense will be able to stop the other team. It appears that this would be an easy pick for the Saints, but I think the Bills will at least be able to keep it close. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be heartbreaking loss number two for the Bills.
Pick: Saints

Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-1)(-6)
4:15 pm Qualcomm Stadium
The Dolphins fought hard and lost a tough one to Indy. They are somehow making the Wildcat work, despite it failing for every other team. I know Indy’s defense isn’t the best, but the Dolphins should keep that formation in the playbook for now. Meanwhile, the Chargers lost the Norv Turner way: conservative. Down 28-23 inside the Ravens 20, Norv decided to kick the field goal. Then down 31-26 with less than two minutes left, Norv decided to run the ball up the middle on 4th and two. This was during a game that Phillip Rivers had well over 400 yards throwing the ball. Yeah, that makes tons of sense.
Pick: Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)(-3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
4:15 pm Paul Brown Stadium
The Steelers are only 3.5 point favorites in this one? That’s a gift from Vegas.
Pick: Steelers

Denver Broncos (2-0)(-1.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-1)
4:15 pm Oakland Coliseum
Either the Raiders go 2-1 or the Broncos somehow go 3-0. I never thought I’d be writing that in Week 3. I see the Raiders running game having a field day with the Denver defense.
Pick: Raiders

Indianapolis Colts (2-0) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-1)(-3)
8:20 pm University of Phoenix Stadium
This is easily the most interesting game of the week. The Colts have proven that their defense isn’t good enough to stop a decent offense this season, but their offense is still among the league’s best (even without Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison). Meanwhile, the Cardinals laid an egg against San Francisco then romped over an uninterested Jacksonville team. So the jury is still out on them. I’ll take a chance with the road team.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

Carolina Panthers (0-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-1)(-9)
8:30 pm Cowboys Stadium
It took three years, but finally someone called out Tony “Oh-for-every big game” Romo. Shockingly, it was Tony Dorsett. Dorsett’s words have stuck in the media, and people are slowly starting to understand that despite the impressive stats, Romo is a choke artist. He has never won a big December game. He has certainly never won a game in January. In fact, the reason the Cowboys lose those games is usually because of Romo. Not Terrell Owens. Not the incompetent Wade Phillips. Romo is the reason. Romo couldn’t even win the Cowboys home opener in that embarrassment of a stadium (the look on Jerry Jones’ surgically altered face was priceless). Romo now gets to face Jake Delhomme, who may be the only quarterback more inaccurate than he is. I’m betting on a minimum of five combined interceptions.
Pick: Cowboys, Panthers cover

Rams at Redskins: Blitz Fail

2009-09-19T08:00:00.004-04:00

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Ok, you are Greg Blache. Your owner signs Albert Haynesworth to a monster contract. Your GM and coach decide to draft Brian Orakpo. You have existing playmakers like London Fletcher, Andre Carter and Laron Landry on the team. What should your game plan be coming into the 2009 season?

Well, apparently the answer was to only blitz one of the most immobile quarterbacks in the NFL, a quarterback with no reliable targets, a grand total of four times. I would be willing to bet that any of the other 31 defensive coordinators in the league, if they suddenly inherited the Redskins roster and had to open against the Giants, would make it a point to get pressure on Eli Manning however possible. Rushing three or four guys on third-and-longs isn’t exactly how you do that.

Manning has proven over and over that he simply can’t handle pressure up the middle. Lo and behold! The Redskins signed Haynesworth for a ton of scratch to take up two blockers in the middle of the line so someone, maybe Orakpo or Fletcher, can come behind him and blitz the quarterback without being touched. Or maybe with Haynesworth occupying the middle, and all the offensive line assignments forced to shift, Carter would be 1-on-1 with an offensive tackle. That would open a window for an outside linebacker or corner to come off the edge with no blockers to take him. Whatever the case may be, Manning has proven that he can’t handle pressure, but can pick your defense apart if he is given all day in the pocket. No, he won’t be able to burn you deep if you drop seven or eight guys back. But he’ll nickel and dime you to death on six to seven minute drives. That’s exactly what Manning did last Sunday.

The worst thing is that the four times the Redskins blitzed (and my definition of blitz means bring more people defensively than the opposition has on the offensive line…so a five-man rush hardly qualifies as a blitz), four bad things happened for the Giants. The interception and fumble were both caused by blitzes. The other two blitzes forced two incompletions. So if you were a defensive coordinator, and you know the quarterback you are playing can’t handle the blitz, and the blitzes you have sent at him have worked, then why in the world would you only blitz him four times out of 30 pass plays? Why would you blitz 13% of the time when the league average is somewhere close to 33%?

I don’t want to hear that Haynesworth played poorly, which is the initial reaction. He was the one who stuffed Brandon Jacobs during a fourth and 1 at the Redskins five. No, he didn’t sack Manning. But he did exactly what he was brought here to do. Occupy two blockers a play so someone can blitz behind him. Except that the blitz never came. Haynesworth can’t control the play-calling. Go back and watch Haynesworth, and you’ll see that time and again he opened up potential blitzing lanes that the Redskins never took advantage of.

I know that DeAngelo Hall didn’t have a great game. The missed tackles weren’t Blache’s fault. The secondary as a whole missed way too many tackles. However, when you rush three or four guys and you can’t get to the quarterback, then the secondary more than often is going to get burned for 10-15 yard gains. You can only cover NFL receivers so long before one of them gets open.

I also know that it wasn’t Blache’s fault that Jason Campbell had a lousy game. It wasn’t Blache’s fault that the Redskins offense didn’t exploit the holes in the Giants secondary. It wasn’t Blache’s fault that the Redskins couldn’t score a touchdown when they got the ball at the Giants’ 12-yard line. There were other issues as well. But the one that contributed the most to the opening week loss was Blache’s inability to take any chances defensively. He went in with the mentality that he would rather lose on 10-15 yard plays than make the highlite reels by being on the wrong end of a 50-yard bomb. That mentality cost the Redskins, but because the Skins were beaten “boringly”, you won’t see any complaints against Blache or the way he called the game.

For the past few years, the Redskins have been really passive on defense. It started with Gregg Williams, and he passed that strategy along to Blache. But most of those Redskins teams weren’t built to blitz a whole lot. The secondary wasn’t good enough to bail out a failed blitz, so the reward was definitely not worth the risk. However, this Redskins team is good enough and is built to put pressure on the quarterback. This is a defense that needs to take chances. This isn’t a defense that has to rely on coverage sacks or lucky bounces to get off the field. This is a defense that was built with the sole purpose of putting more pressure on the quarterback. Dan Snyder has said that. Jim Zorn has said that. Even Blache himself has said that. Now Blache has to put his money where his mouth is and allow his defense to do their job.

The Redskins were done no favors by having to open in the Meadowlands two years in row. However, the schedule makers made up for it by putting the next five game slate together: St. Louis, at Detroit, Tampa Bay, at Carolina and Kansas City. Carolina looked to be difficult at the beginning of the season, but who knows what Jake Delhomme’s mental state will be like by Week 5. All those games, at least for the time being, appear to be winnable.

Of course there’s winnable, and then there’s winnable for the Redskins. I said the same thing last season about game against St. Louis, Cincinnati and San Francisco. Those losses cost the Redskins a playoff spot. It’s easy to look at all those games and see a way the Skins can lose. They lost at home to the Rams last season. God knows the Lions are due, and with each loss, there is actually more pressure on the team the Lions are facing to not be the team that allows Detroit to snap their losing streak. The Bucs can still play defense well. So can the Panthers. The Chiefs could be feisty if Matt Cassel returns at full strength. In other words, the next five games are winnable, but the Skins will most likely find a way to lost at least one or two of those contests.

The Rams are an offense similar to the Giants, just with a lesser offensive line. They have a back that can pound you and go outside (Stephen Jackson). They have a bunch of decent, but non-descript receivers. Most importantly, they have a quarterback who has made the Pro Bowl, has had postseason success, but can’t handle a blitz up the middle. Marc Bulger has taken so many hits and has dealt with a variety of injuries over the last few seasons. With the offensive line going through a rebuilding phase, he’s definitely gun-shy. What better way to take advantage of that situation then with a couple of blitzes up the gut? The earlier in the game, the better.

As for the offense, whose performance was even more disheartening than the defense, this should be the unit to get healthy against. The Skins faced four of the best defenses in the league during the preseason and the Giants were another top unit last week. The Rams have one of the worst. Seattle managed to score 28 points against them without a running game. I would assume the Redskins should do something similar.

I wouldn’t count on the Redskins losing this one. Yes they lost last year to St. Louis. However, there were about two or three fluky plays that allowed the Rams to win it. I wouldn’t count on an offensive lineman fumbling a tipped pass and allowing the Rams defense to score on the play for a second year in a row. Unlike other teams they usually overlook, the Redskins know that the Rams can beat them if they play lousy. The Skins are the better team, and hopefully their coordinators will allow them to play like it.

NFL Week 2: Delhomme's Moonshot

2009-09-18T14:26:00.002-04:00

Week 1 saw me go a respectable 10-5 overall and a decent 8-7 against the spread. As far as Week 1’s go, that was one of my best. So let’s roll on with Week 2.

SUNDAY

Oakland Raiders (0-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1)(-3)
1:00 pm Arrowhead Stadium
Both of these teams impressed me enough this weekend to make me think the AFC West is tougher than I was led to believe. This is a crucial game for Kansas City. After this one, they play four in a row against the NFC East. A loss here could leave them staring at an 0-6 start.
Pick: Chiefs

Houston Texans (0-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-1)(-6.5)
1:00 pm LP Field
The Texans may be that preseason darkhorse team that can’t possibly live up to expectations. There is one every season. I thought that when I picked them to go 9-7 and finish 3rd in the division, that would be a shock. However, several publications had them doing even better. Some had them winning the South. If they lose to a division rival and go to 0-2, I don’t think that will be possible.
Pick: Titans

New England Patriots (1-0)(-3.5) vs. New York Jets (1-0)
1:00 pm Giants Stadium
Something tells me that Bill Belichick will be able to handle a rookie quarterback. He’s probably got lots of illegal film of Mark Sanchez already.
Pick: Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-0)(-9)
1:00 pm Lambeau Field
The Bengals were one of two teams to get kicked in the crotch over the weekend. I think it will take them weeks to recover from their loss to Denver. What was lost in the miracle finish was the performance of Carson Palmer. Against one of the league’s worst defenses, Palmer and the offense could only manage seven points. As bad as the Brandon Stokley touchdown was, Palmer’s performance was an even worse omen.
Pick: Packers

Minnesota Vikings (1-0)(-9.5) vs. Detroit Lions (0-1)
1:00 pm Ford Field
Here’s hoping the Lions can somehow pull off the upset so there’s no chance the Redskins can be the team to snap the losing streak next week.
Pick: Vikings

New Orleans Saints (1-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
1:00 pm Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas has WAYYYYYYYYY too much confidence in Kevin Kolb and WAYYYYYYY too much confidence in the Eagles defense stopping Drew Brees. Jake Delhomme is one thing fellas, Brees is another.
Pick: Saints

Carolina Panthers (0-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-0)(-6.5)
1:00 pm Georgia Dome
Speaking of Delhomme, he is damaged goods until proven wrong. His case is similar to Brad Lidge back in 2005. Previous to 2005, Lidge had been a reliable closer. But it took Lidge three seasons to recover from the Albert Pujols moonshot he gave up in the NLCS. Delhomme seems to be going through the same process. After his 5-interception mulligan against Arizona in the playoffs, who knows when Delhomme will once again be ready to play to his previous high standards.
Pick: Falcons, Panthers cover

Arizona Cardinals (0-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)(-3.5)
1:00 pm Alltel Stadium
Normally I wouldn’t touch the Cardinals for a 1pm East Coast game. But they broke that curse last season, so all bets are off.
Pick: Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-0)(-1.5)
4:05 pm Candlestick Park
What is more surprising: that both of these teams are 1-0, or that this is a huge early season game for the NFC West?
Pick: Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-1)(-4.5)
4:05 pm Ralph Wilson Stadium
How many heartbreaking losses is it going to take until people realized how horrible a coach Dick Jauron is? I think he’s up to at least four or five stomach-punchers during his time in Buffalo. I see at least two or three more coming this season.
Pick: Bills

Cleveland Browns (0-1) vs. Denver Broncos (1-0)(-3)
4:15 pm Mile High Stadium
Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos are about to go 2-0. Yes, that’s the same Broncos team I said would go 3-13 and probably be the worst team in the NFL this season. Amazing what having Cincinnati and Cleveland at the beginning of the schedule can do for your record.
Pick: Broncos

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-0)(-3)
4:15 pm Qualcomm Stadium
Something tells me that the 38-point output from Baltimore’s offense had more to do with Kansas City’s defense than anything the Ravens did. Let’s give the nod to the team that doesn’t have to travel 3,000 miles to play this one.
Pick: Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)(-2) vs. Chicago Bears (0-1)
4:15 pm Soldier Field
The Steelers defense without Troy Polamalu still has 10 other Pro Bowl-caliber players. The Bears defense without Brian Urlacher is average at best.
Pick: Steelers

New York Giants (1-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-0)(-3)
8:15 pm Cowboys Stadium
Here’s hoping that joke of a scoreboard collapses during the game.
Pick: Giants

MONDAY

Indianapolis Colts (1-0)(-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1)
8:30 pm Land Shark Stadium
Miami’s long fall back to Earth continues. I think the people in the NFL offices that gave Miami five primetime games should start looking for new jobs.
Pick: Colts

Redskins at Giants: Zorn Again, Again

2009-09-12T22:56:00.004-04:00

Washington Redskins at New York Giants
4:15 pm Giants Stadium
Year two of the Jim Zorn era begins for the Washington Redskins. Like most seasons under the Dan Snyder regime, it begins with plenty of change and question marks, but with heightened expectations. There are many around the nation saying that this team will only win four or five games. Most of those people look at the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys and automatically put the Redskins in last. 4-12 or 5-11 won’t happen. It just won’t. There is too much talent on both sides of the ball. Clinton Portis, Chris Cooley, Santana Moss, Albert Haynesworth, London Fletcher, Brian Orakpo, Laron Landry, etc… These players aren’t garbage. These are players that any team would want. Look at the other teams that should win only four to five games and you won’t see talent like that.

However, to assume that the Redskins are destined for a 12-4 season is also foolish. The offensive line is a huge question mark. The starters are good, but if anyone gets hurt, there are few if any capable backups. Orakpo and Rocky McIntosh look good on paper, but can the two help Fletcher at linebacker on the field? Who will step up as the team’s second wide receiver? And of course, there is the question at quarterback.

Jason Campbell is back, despite the efforts of many in the front office, as the starter. This really isn’t the biggest question mark on the team, but it is the one that’s naturally focused on. I personally think that in his second season in the same system (the first time that’s ever happened in his career), and with a contract year coming up, we’ll see big things from Campbell. But that’s assuming that he’s allowed to have a good season. I’m not talking about bad playing calling from Zorn. I’m not talking about meddling from the front office. I’m talking about the five guys who line up in front of him.

The big question remains the offensive line. When they were healthy, the Redskins went 6-2 last year. After Chris Samuels and Randy Thomas got hurt against the Steelers, they went 2-6. Most of what happened in the second half of last season had very little to do with Campbell. There were plenty of times last season that Campbell lined up with only two of his five starting offensive linemen on the field. If this line is healthy, they are old, but still talented enough to give Campbell time, Portis running room, and the offense a fighting chance. If they are injured, then the Redskins are in big trouble. But not in any more trouble that any other team would injuries would have.

Which brings me to my second question mark about this team: depth. The Redskins have very little of it on the line or just about anywhere else. The defensive line is overhauled (more on that in a second) and deep and the secondary is loaded. But depth is a serious problem at every other position. If the Redskins somehow struggle to a 5-11 season, it will be because of injuries and lack of depth. Not because of Campbell’s performance.

Those are the two big question marks I have. Let’s focus on the positives now. Clinton Portis still has one more great season left in him. Cooley is now among elite tight ends. The additions of Haynesworth and Orakpo completely change the complexion of what the defense can do. If Greg Blache actually blitzes this season, the Skins should easily be in the top tier of NFL defenses. He has no excuses not to. He has a monster in Orakpo, a space-eater in Haynesworth, and a bunch of other solid players who will find themselves in one-on-one situations because of the previously mentioned. Fletcher will have another 100+ tackle season. The secondary, assuming Carlos Rogers has learned to catch a football in the offseason, can hold their own. Hunter Smith helps with the punting game. The Redskins season comes down to the offensive line. If they hold, this is a ten win team. If they struggle, the Skins will probably win seven.

There are so many nuances that I would have loved to talk about this week, but thanks to my computer dying and just getting it back less than 24 hours before game time, I’ll have to spread them out through the month of September. Instead, I’ll just focus on the game at hand.

The NFL, in their infinite wisdom, scheduled the Redskins for a season opener in the lovely Jersey swamps for the second season in a row. This should not have been allowed to happen. First of all, I’ve long said that there should be no division games Week 1. You can't have some teams playing crucial division matchups while other teams play against the other conference in the first week of the year. And to force the Redskins to open up in the division and on the road two years in a row boarders on cruelty and favoritism towards New York. Not that there has been anything like that in recent years (like giving the Giants nine home games…just doesn’t happen).

While the Giants defense gets Osi Umenyiora back after an ACL injury ended his season early in 2008, they’ve basically lost their entire receiving corps and Derrick Ward on the offensive side. Eli Manning has never been the most accurate quarterback, and that was when he was throwing to Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey. Now he has such standouts as Hakeem Nicks, Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith (not that Steve Smith) to throw to. I can’t imagine he will be any better.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the vaunted Giants running game without Ward as a change of pace back. Ahmed Bradshaw, despite being ballyhooed in the media, is nothing more than a short yardage and goal line back. Brandon Jacobs is a great runner, but has never really had to carry the load himself. I’m not so sure he can carry it for an entire season.

However, despite the possible problems, the Giants are strong on both the offensive and defensive line. In this league, that’s important. That’s why I see them winning the NFC East and probably making the Super Bowl. But in the NFC East, anything can happen because of the strength of all four teams. However, the Giants have the best combined offensive and defensive line, so that puts them in the driver seat at this point.

The 2009 Redskins defense was built to create more pass rush, but ironically, was probably built to stop the run even more. The Giants are a run first team. If the Skins have more luck stopping Jacobs this season than they did last year, they can win this game. If I’m Tom Coughlin, other than wondering how I still have a NFL job, I’m worried about having to throw Manning to the wolves with untested receivers in fourth quarters of ballgames. The Redskins have to put eight in the box, stop Jacobs, and take their chances with Manning and the unproven wideouts.

Offensively, there’s a good chance that Campbell looks terrible and all the critics that have been in hiding since the preseason game against New England come back to the forefront. If he stinks it up tomorrow, I wouldn’t be shocked or concerned. The Giants defense is good. More than that, they are great. If Campbell has a 13-28, 170 yards, INT stat line, don’t be worried. He wouldn’t be the first quarterback to do that against the Giants. Portis must get going early, and Campbell needs to complete some short passes for his confidence. Hopefully the Redskins offense can take advantage of some Manning mistakes and score with a short field. If the defense can’t force turnovers, this will be a close and low-scoring game. If they do, then forget that 6.5 line in favor of the Giants.

The best news for the Skins is that they get this game out of the way early in the season. They don’t have to worry about going to Meadowlands late in the year with something on the line. They get it out of the way and then get to move on to three teams that will probably finish last in their divisions (Rams, Lions, Bucs). A win here is an absolute steal, and may signify bigger things to come.

Season Predictions & Week 1 Picks

2009-09-10T15:03:00.002-04:00

Got through 30 of the 32 previews, and I did most of them without a computer. The two teams that are missing will be discussed in depth later in the week (assuming that my fixed computer ever arrives). However, I think it’s time to put the season predictions down on paper (or internet) and give you the week 1 picks quickly. Hopefully with a working laptop, I can go into greater detail next week.

NFC
New York Giants (12-4)
Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
Carolina Panthers (10-6)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
New Orleans Saints (9-7)

Round 1
Saints over Panthers
Vikings over Bears

Divisional Round
Giants over Saints
Vikings over Cardinals

NFC Championship
Giants over Vikings

AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
New England Patriots (11-5)
San Diego Chargers (11-5)
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Buffalo Bills (9-7)

Round 1
Patriots over Bills
Chargers over Titans

Divisional Round
Steelers over Chargers
Colts over Patriots

AFC Championship
Colts over Steelers

SUPER BOWL XLIV
Colts 27, Giants 19

WEEK 1 Picks
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
Pick: Steelers

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Pick: Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)
Pick: Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Panthers

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
Pick: Bengals

Minnesota Vikings (-4) at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Vikings

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Pick: Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-8)
Pick: Colts, Jaguars cover

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-13)
Pick: Saints

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Cowboys

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
Pick: Cardinals

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)
Pick: Seahawks, Rams cover

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4)
Pick: Bears

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-10.5)
Pick: Patriots, Bills cover

San Diego Chargers (-9.5) at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Chargers, Raiders cover

2009 Eagles Preview: I'll Be Doggone

2009-08-31T20:53:00.000-04:00

NFC EAST
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Record: 9-7

Offense: A-
Defense: C
Coaching: C

What’s new: If you thought the circus around Terrell Owens or Brett Favre was bad, you haven’t seen anything yet. How about the combined headaches of having Donovan McNabb AND Michael Vick on the same team. Also added through the draft was Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. The Eagles lost a lot on defense through free agency and injuries.

What’s good: The offensive depth. If Brian Westbrook, who is the real key to this offense, gets hurt again then the Eagles actually have someone to replace him (McCoy). There are plenty of targets for McNabb to throw to, including but not limited to, Desean Jackson, Kevin Curtis and Maclin. Throw in the unknown of Vick, and the Eagles offense is better than last season.

What’s bad: The defensive mess. Why the Eagles let Brian Dawkins leave I will never know. He had two good seasons left in him. Huge mistake. The safeties no longer scare anybody and the linebackers are nameless. The loss of Stuart Bradley was treated as huge news, but Bradley wasn’t that good to begin with. The fact the Eagles are concerned about not having him is a terrible sign.

What to expect: Andy Reid can’t even manage to keep either of his sons out of prison. How can he possibly manage the eventual McNabb-Vick issues that are going to plague this team? The death of Jim Johnson, who was the Eagles best coach on the entire staff, is certainly not going to help Reid any. Like the Cowboys, there is too much talent on this team for it to be bad. However, there’s really no way a team with a weak defense and a weak coach can consistently win in the NFL. The Eagles and Cowboys are almost identical. The Eagles are a better team, which puts them two games ahead of Dallas in the projected standings.

2009 Cowboys Preview: Big Problems In Big D

2009-08-30T16:56:00.004-04:00

NFC EAST
4. Dallas Cowboys
Projected record: 7-9

Offense: A-
Defense: C
Coaching: D

What’s new: The Cowboys shuffled pieces in and out. Terrell Owens is gone, which would have brought some sense of normalcy to Dallas except Roy Williams is currently filling the crazy wide receiver quota. Igor Olshansky was a good addition on defense, but Keith Brooking is well over-the-hill. Also new is the Cowboys stadium. After botching the original Texas Stadium by screwing up the roof, Dallas has botched their second attempt by building a multi-billion dollar stadium with basic engineering flaws. Like having a scoreboard that interferes with play. Brilliant! There is no off-position on Jerry Jones’ surgically-altered genius switch.

What’s good: Losing Owens’ talents and insanity is a push, but the offense is still very good. It remains to be seen if either Marion Barber or Felix Jones can make it through a whole season. If they can this team should do better than 7-9. The offensive line is still good. Jason Witten is an invaluable target. There are weapons outside of Owens.

What’s bad: The overall chemistry in the locker room. The state of that clubhouse has to among the worst in the league. Also bad is that Wade Phillips is still somehow the head coach. I’m shocked that Jones kept him in Dallas, but his continued presence on the sideline helps the rest of the division. On the field, the Cowboys linebackers and secondary are easily among the worst in the NFC.

Wade Phillips is smiling...and so is the rest of the NFC East.

What to expect: Anything really. There’s too much talent on the team to lose 10 games or more, but there are too many distractions as well. Phillips has no control over the many personalities on this team. This is also the wrong division to have major problems in the secondary and linebacking corps. Also, the one name not mentioned so far, is oh-for-January Tony Romo. Who knows what his mental or physical state is. Neither one is good enough for this team to amount much of a threat in a loaded division.

2009 NFC West Preview: Arizona's Division To Lose

2009-08-29T14:39:00.002-04:00

Since I fell a little behind, we are going to fly through the NFC West. It’s ok, because the division really isn’t that interesting.

NFC WEST
1. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Record: 11-5

Offense: A
Defense: C+
Coaching: B

What’s new: Realistic expectations. This team had long been labeled a loser. But this is a team that was a few minutes from winning the Super Bowl back in February. The same is expected of them in 2009-10. The Cards added Bryan McFadden from Pittsburgh, and changed their offensive hierarchy after Todd Haley left to coach Kansas City.

What’s good: Other than the expectations, the offense is really, really good. Kurt Warner has at least one more good season left in him. Everyone knows about Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The offensive line grew up in a hurry. And Edgerrin James is no longer in town to complain and take carries away from other backs.

What’s bad: With or without James, the Cards still haven’t found a suitable running back. It didn’t seem to bother them much last season, but they only had success in the playoffs because they committed to running the ball. Can they do that for 16 games this year? Defensively, while the back seven are good, the front four worry me. Teams can still gash Arizona on the ground.

What to expect: It’s easy to forget the Cardinals were a .500 team last season until January. Their Super Bowl run could easily be a fluke. However, they are in the perfect division. They don’t need to run a whole lot and other than Stephen Jackson, they don’t have to worry about dominant running backs. Plus, the other three teams stink. Six games against the West, and games against Green Bay and Detroit, give Arizona plenty of winnable games. They may give up a lot of points, but they can score plenty to make up for it.

2. Seattle Seahawks
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: B-
Defense: B-
Coaching: C-

What’s new: Jim Mora Jr. comes in to replace Mike Holmgren. T.J. Houshmandzadeh gives the Seahawks their best receiver since Joey Galloway. Aaron Curry and Max Unger are instant contributors from the draft. All that, and hopefully Matt Hasselbeck getting healthy gives Seattle a new look this year.

What’s good: The offensive line is still one of the best in the NFL. The Hasselbeck-Houshmandzadeh combination has some potential. The defense is scary fast. It’s awful hard to pass on this group, which is important considering they get the Cardinals twice a year.

What’s bad: The defense is fast for a reason…they are also undersized. It is easy to beat this team on the ground. Their blitzes also don’t work well against the bigger offensive lines. Hasselbeck is now an annual injury risk. Julian Jones can’t carry the load as the starting running back. And I’ve never been fond of either Jim Mora, especially the younger one.

What to expect: The window of opportunity is basically shut on these Seahawks. The Cardinals have passed them by. The 49ers are on the way up. The offensive line is getting older. Hasselbeck is rapidly getting old. The defense can still cause fits because of their speed, but more and more teams are figuring out how to beat them. If it wasn’t for a favorable schedule, Seattle could be staring at a 4-5 win season. I’ll give them seven because the rest of the NFC West is at least a year away.

3. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Record: 6-10

Offense: C+
Defense: C
Coaching: C+

What’s new: A sense that things are going in the right direction. Mike Singletary hasn’t proven much in terms of X’s and O’s, but he has laid down the law by the Bay. He’s also named a starting quarterback, and it was the right choice.

What’s good: There are good pieces on both sides of the ball. This isn’t a cohesive team yet, but they are getting there. I like Frank Gore (despite the injuries), Josh Morgan, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and Manny Lawson. This team just needs time to gel.

What’s bad: The offensive line is still below average. The defense still has way too many holes that need to be filled. It’s too late to do so this season. And the 49ers steal of a draft pick in Michael Crabtree, has yet to sign or report to team. That’s not going to take the pressure off Shaun Hill if Gore gets hurt again.

What to expect: Wait one more season 49er fans. This team is a couple of offensive lineman and maybe one impact defensive player away from being a threat to compete for a playoff spot in the NFC. Singletary needs a full year under his belt, the offensive line needs to mature, and the young defense has to play as a whole unit. Until these things happen, I can’t see San Fran doing any better than six wins.

4. St. Louis Rams
Projected Record: 3-13

Offense: C
Defense: D
Coaching: INC

What’s new: Steve Spagnolo, who could have had any coaching job a year ago, lost a little bloom and now has to settle for the rebuilding Rams. Torry Holt and Orlando Pace, two of the last links from “The Greatest Show on Turf” have departed, leaving this team virtually leaderless.

What’s good: Stephen Jackson is still a star player and the Rams line is good enough to help him put up yards. Jason Smith was a great draft pick, just what the Rams needed to replace Pace. Marc Bulger is competent quarterback if he’s not hurt.

What’s bad: Bulger is often hurt, and his backup this season is Kyle Boller. Ask the Ravens fans how that worked out. Quarterback issues aside, most of the questions center around a defense that can’t stop the run or pass. Just run down the starting lineup and tell me how St. Louis will get off the field this season. When rookie James Laurinaitis is projected to start at middle linebacker, that’s a real problem. He’s a NFL project in my opinion. The secondary and linebackers are among the worst in the league.

What to expect: Despite the lousy division, I don’t see much reason for optimism in St. Louis. The Rams are going to be competing with the Lions, Broncos and Bucs for the league’s worst record. Spagnolo has himself a major rebuilding project. If the Seahawks and 49ers are worse than expected, then maybe the Rams can double the projected win total. Anything more than that would be an absolute stunner.

2009 Panthers & Saints Preview: The Top Of A Crazy Division

2009-08-29T13:52:00.001-04:00

NFC SOUTH
1. Carolina Panthers
Projected Record: 10-6

Offense: A-
Defense: B
Coaching: B

What’s new: Again, sorry for the infrequent updates, I’m without a computer until almost the beginning of the season. As for the Panthers, other than adding players through the draft, they basically stood pat in the off-season. This group still has a good nucleus, so that shouldn’t be viewed as a bad thing.

What’s good: On paper, this team looks like one of the favorites in the NFC (again). They have a two-headed monster at running back and a two-headed monster at receiver. They have two Pro Bowl offensive tackles. The defense is solid throughout, and it has depth. It’s a versatile group. They can blitz all day, or lay back and drop seven, and have success no matter what.

What’s bad: Two things. The first is the two-faced Jake Delhomme. Delhomme has the potential to throw for 300 yards and three scores, or throw 100 yards with three picks. Heck, he could throw for 300 and three in the first half and 100 and three in the second. The 34-year is extremely unpredictable. Despite a great running game, the Panthers always seem to win or lose based on Delhomme’s performance. The second is the psyche of a team that got drubbed in primetime last January against the Cardinals at home. Who knows if they have fully recovered.

What to expect: Once again, I may be overrating the Panthers. I seem to do this every season. I like John Fox, and I like the overall talent and depth on the roster. But like the Chargers in the AFC, the Panthers have become nearly impossible to predict because of their erratic quarterback play. A 10-6 record along with a division crown and a playoff win seems to be the safe bet for Carolina.

2. New Orleans Saints
Projected Record: 9-7

Offense: A
Defense: C+
Coaching: B

What’s new: The Saints tinkered with their lineup. Deuce McAllister is gone. Darren Sharper is added. Along with Sharper, Malcolm Jenkins joins New Orleans through the draft to try and shore up a poor secondary. Other than that, the Saints added depth players at certain positions.

What’s good: Most of the offense, which has the potential to be the best in the NFC. Drew Brees comes off an MVP-caliber season. There is no reason to believe Brees will regress much, if at all this season. Marques Colston and Devery Henderson give Brees two great targets (Robert Meachem and Lance Moore are no slouches either). The offensive line is one of the best in the league. On defense, Charles Grant, Will Smith, Jonathan Vilma and Sedrick Ellis bring plenty of talent to a unit that must improve.

What’s bad: Two years ago, McAllister and Reggie Bush headlined a backfield that was supposedly the scariest in the league. Now McAllister is gone, and Bush has yet to prove anything beyond breaking an occasional screen pass or punt return. And despite all the talent that exists on the defensive side of the ball, the Saints have been consistently bad in the past few seasons when it comes to stopping the opposition.

What to expect: Three seasons ago, the Saints made the NFC Championship. In the past two seasons they’ve been strictly mediocre. We know New Orleans will put up points, so it’s going to come down to the defense. Unfortunately, we’ve seen the Saints defense fail in clutch situations time after time. While I think the unit will be better, I don’t think it will be good enough. New Orleans will be scratching for a wild card berth.

2009 Falcons Preview: Back To Earth, But Not For Long

2009-08-25T22:31:00.003-04:00

NFC SOUTH
3. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: B+
Defense: C-
Coaching: B-

What's new: Firstly, my computer. I had this all written yesterday and then my computer decided to do it's annual crash. So this will be the second time I write about the Falcons. In terms of the new for the Falcons, they brought in Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs, Mike Peterson from the Jags and they also used their entire draft on defensive players. That's eight players in all.

What's good: The offense as a whole. Matt Ryan was far and away the 2008 Rookie of the Year. Michael Turner, Michael Jenkins and Roddy White are outstanding weapons. The offensive line is still young, but they are a solid unit. That's the only reason the unit doesn't get an A grade.

Roddy White is part of a dangerous offense, despite getting a ridiculous raise in the offseason.

What's bad: The defense as a whole. Keith Brooking, who is on the downside of his career, bolted for Dallas. That leaves the Falcons with the same gaping hole that Tampa has after losing Derrick Brooks. Other than Peterson, John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux, there isn't a whole lot that will scare the opposition. Have you heard of Brent Grimes? How about Stephen Nicholas? Or Thomas DeCoud? They are all starters on the defense, but they might as well be members of the chain gang.

What to expect: A trip back to Earth for the Falcons. Like Miami and Baltimore, this was a team that snuck up on everyone in 2008, and they won't have that ability in 2009. And like the rest of this division, they have to go through the NFC and AFC East in 2009. Last year they had a much easier time playing the NFC North and AFC West. The Falcons are set up well for success through the next four to five years...maybe even longer. They've done a great job rebuilding after the Mike Vick fiasco. This season will mearly be a speed bump on their road to success.

2009 Buccaneers Preview: Sinking Ship

2009-08-24T15:18:00.004-04:00

NFC SOUTH
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 4-12

Offense: D+
Defense: B-
Coaching: INC

What’s new: Raheem Morris takes over for Jon Gruden as the head man. He brings in excommunicated BC head coach Jeff Jagodzinski to coach the offense who in turn brings in a lot of vowels to the staff. The Bucs also managed to acquire Kellen Winslow in a trade with Cleveland. They drafted Josh Freeman to take over for the departed Jeff Garcia. Tampa also loses longtime defensive leader Derrick Brooks.

What’s good: The defense, despite the loss of Brooks, is still a solid unit. True, a lot of the big names have retired or have been released. But this is still a fast and aggressive unit, and any team outside of the NFC South will struggle to put up points against them. Winslow gives whatever quarterback lines up under center a decent security blanket.

What’s bad: The offense is a mess. The problems start at QB. Freeman is competing for the starting job with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich. Survival of the fittest will determine the winner, instead of talent. Whichever way Morris goes is probably not going to pretty. Morris is also a big question mark. He’s only 32-years-old. I know the trend recently has been to hire extremely young coaches, but Morris is not Mike Tomlin (who is an NFL-lifer). Morris has done most of his coaching in the college ranks. This is a huge step up for someone with virtually no NFL experience and zero experience as a head coach at any level.

At the time of publication, Raheem Morris will be younger than five players on his roster, including Ronde Barber.

What to expect: A new head coach, two new coordinators for the offense and defense, an unsettled quarterback situation, an average offensive line, a defense that doesn’t have its veteran leader, etc… All of these things add up to a team that is going to have a lot of trouble playing consistently week to week. They also play in one of the tougher divisions AND they have to play both the NFC and AFC East. The defense will be good enough to keep them in some ballgames, but this is a team that is going to struggle to find four wins.