Mark the Predictor

Going Forward...

2010-04-13T13:06:00.002-04:00

There have been some questions as to the future of this page. As of right now, I’m 50-50 on whether I’m coming back next year.

Let’s start with college basketball. As excited as I am about Maryland’s chances next season, especially considering how bad the rest of the ACC coaches are becoming, the new expansion rule will completely kill college basketball’s regular season as we know it. A 96-team field would devalue the regular season for most of the power conference teams. As of right now, all Maryland has to do is win 20 games and they’ll be in the tournament. In a new 96-team postseason, the Terps will probably only need to win 16 or 17 games. They’d only have to go 8-8 in the ACC. So what’s the point of talking about 16 conference games and the biggest three-to-five out-of-conference games if Maryland only has to win half of them?

Maryland would almost be assured of a NCAA Tournament bid before the season began. It would take a .500 overall record combined with a 6-10 ACC record to keep the Terps out of the New Dance. Even without Greivis Vasquez, I put the chances of Maryland winning at least 17 games next season at about 90-10. So again, I don’t see a point in writing about 20 or so virtually meaningless games. I can only make fun of Sidney Lowe so many times.

Now to the Redskins, which is the real reason I keep this page up. The Skins have gone from Jim Zorn-Jason Campbell to Mike Shanahan-Donovan McNabb. Even the most anti-Redskin football fan has to see that as a significant upgrade. However, even with that changeover, will it make the Redskins a playoff team? Probably not. As of right now, I see a maximum four game improvement from the Redskins, which would probably put them squarely in 3rd place in the NFC East and at least one game out of a playoff spot. And that’s if everything goes well. 6-10 or 7-9 is more likely at this point. I know that the off-season isn’t close to over. I know the Redskins haven’t even drafted yet. Maybe they’ll do the right thing by drafting Russell Okung and then turn around and sign a free agent lineman (of which there are still plenty of attractive options). Maybe they’ll make a couple of smart trades for additional draft picks.

But take a good long look at this team. I can’t be expected to root for Larry Johnson. I can’t be expected to root for Albert Haynesworth (even though I defended Big Al last season, his actions in the offseason have made him completely unworthy of any fan affection). Most importantly, I can’t possibly be expected to root for McNabb. I have spent the last decade rooting vehemently against him. I’ve never liked him, not for one second. I can’t even pretend to like him. If he somehow wins ten games, maybe he’ll start changing my mind. Chances are he’ll oversee a team that’s going to finish close to .500. Chances are I’ll blame him for the Redskins shortcomings. How many times over the four months of football season can I write the same thing over and over again? It felt like I did exactly that last season when I criticized Greg Blache every single week. I’m not going to go through another football season like the last one. By October, I was tired of writing about the Redskins and I have a strong feeling that you tired of reading about them. And I have a feeling 2010 will be a lot like 2009.

Hopefully the Redskins will keep taking steps towards improving the team. As usual, I become more optimistic about the Skins the closer it gets to September. So maybe by July, I’ll be a little more inspired to keep doing this page. I would also like to see more reader interaction in the comments section. The first few years I did this page saw a good deal of readers' comments. The last couple of years have been pretty poor. If I can get more interaction from the readers, then I would commit right now to coming back for my sixth season. As of this moment, I’m going on my typical summer hiatus. Don’t expect anything to pop up here until late July or Early August. Everybody have a great summer, and if all goes well, I hope to see you back here for Redskins football in the fall.

2010 NCAA Tournament: National Championship

2010-04-05T10:29:00.001-04:00

#5 Butler Bulldogs (33-4, 18-0 Horizon) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (34-5, 13-3 ACC)

I came to grips with the Devils winning the championship about midway through their game with West Virginia. It was obvious that the Mountaineers weren’t that interested and I didn’t even bother to watch the second half…especially not on a gorgeous Saturday night. We all know Butler is going to show up for 10 minutes – maybe a half – and then roll over in the second half tonight. If the Dookies don’t win this thing by at least 15 point I’d be surprised. Thanks to the NCAA committee, CBS, Robbie Hummel’s ACL, Da’Sean Butler’s ACL, phantom charges, Kansas/Kentucky not showing up and Bob Huggins’ incompetence, it looks like another championship and more smugness for the nerds. Oh well.

I’d rather talk about Maryland some more. I don’t think next year is the gloom and doom that most fans are suggesting. The starting lineup will consist of Tucker, Bowie, Mosley, Williams and Gregory. That’s a pretty good starting five. Three seniors, a junior and sophomore. Maryland can do some damage with that lineup. Obviously none of the guards will be able to replicate Greivis Vasquez’s season, and his loss is a clear negative for Maryland. I’m not delusional enough to believe that it will be easy for the Terps to adjust without him. But if Bowie and Mosley up their scoring averages a little bit (which they should with more minutes and more shots), then Maryland should be fine in the long run. James Padgett should also see a rise in minutes and I’m confident he’ll be a huge factor for the Terrapins frontcourt next year.

The Terps also add five freshmen, three of whom look very promising and should contribute immediately. Mychal Parker is a 6’6” wingman who is one of the bigger recruits Gary Williams has nailed down in the last couple of seasons. Scouts have raved about his defense, which means he should have no problem being one of the first two players off the bench. If he’s as good as everyone is saying, he may crack the starting lineup by next season. Terrell Stoglin should be the next great Maryland point guard. The comparisons between Stoglin and Terrell Stokes are already beginning. Stoglin has lit up Arizona High School record books the past few seasons. Two years ago he was barely recruited…I believe only San Diego and Northern Arizona were considering him. Now he is ranked as one of the top 100 players in the country. Very nice find by Rob Ehsan and the coaching staff. The third player to watch is Pe’Shon Howard…another player who was not heavily recruited but has shot up the rankings during this past season. It’s hard to doubt Howard’s pedigree since he attends Oak Hill. I’ve seen him play a couple of times on TV recently, and I can’t wait to see what he can do for Maryland next season. He’s probably the player I’m most excited about watching next year. The only problem is the depth chart. I don’t know how many minutes a 6’4” freshman shooting guard is going to get with Mosley, Bowie and potentially Parker ahead of him. The question mark about the recruiting class right now is power forward Ashton Pankey. It seemed like Pankey had the potential to be another Jordan Williams; a raw post player that was basically ignored by recruiters and the rankings, only to blossom during his senior season. Unfortunately, Pankey has been dealing with various leg injuries for the past six months and didn’t play most of the year. He should be healthy by the summer, but he’ll have a lot to catching up to do. If he shines in camp and practice, then Maryland’s frontcourt will be four deep. If not, the front court will be very similar to the one from this season.

Regardless, Maryland should be a deep team, which means Gary should be able to run his system. The Terps will have home-and-homes with Virginia, Duke, Boston College, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. Maryland will only play Clemson, Florida State and NC State at home while they get Georgia Tech, Miami and UNC on the road. Avoiding Clemson, FSU and Carolina two times should be a benefit. Getting Virginia, BC and Wake Forest (I’m assuming minus Al Farouq Aminu) twice should also help. Virginia Tech could be terrible if Malcolm Delaney goes to the NBA. We also know Maryland will play at Villanova and will get some combination of Pitt, Texas and Illinois in the Coaches vs. Cancer shindig at MSG. Add in a home game against a Big Ten team (most likely Ohio State or Purdue) and that should be a pretty good schedule. Of course, with 142 teams getting into the dance now, Maryland probably won’t have to win any of those out of conference games to makes the NCAA Tournament.

Before I go, congrats to Greivis on winning the Bob Cousy Award and making either the first team or second team of every All-American squad there is. I already plan on being in attendance during whatever game Maryland decides to raise his jersey next season. He’s done the university proud over the last two seasons, and I wish him the best of luck in the NBA. Hopefully he’ll go late in the first round and wind up on a good team. I promise that I will post once more either this week or next before going in to my summer hibernation. So come back for that as I discuss the future of this page.
Pick: Duke 67, Butler 51

2010 NCAA Tournament: Final Four

2010-04-03T13:59:00.005-04:00

#5 Butler Bulldogs (32-4, 18-0 Horizon) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (28-8, 14-4 Big Ten)

Despite what most Maryland fans think, I’m rooting for Michigan State. How can you not? They have the greatest coach in the game. Not only that, they have a coach that does things the right way. You never hear of any scandals at Michigan State (at least regarding the basketball team), there aren’t even hints of wrongdoing. Furthermore, the team itself is pretty likeable. Raymar Morgan and Korie Lucious are fantastic players. And despite being in the Big Ten, the Spartans don’t play the typical “first to 50” type of basketball. They actually have a modern offense. I know this team beat the Terps on a last second shot. So what? Look at the other three options left in this tournament and try to convince me to root for any of them. You’ll be up way past your bedtime trying to persuade me.

You could also argue that Michigan State – not Butler – is the true underdog in this tournament. The Spartans were left for dead at the beginning of the NCAA Tournament. Yours truly thought they would barely squeak by New Mexico State (which was 100% correct). MSU hasn’t won any of their games convincingly. Their best player is unavailable due to injury, and their best three-point shooter/defender is lucky to be 75% healthy. They are probably the worst of the four teams left. But having the best coach, and having players that would step in front of a bullet for him, definitely count for something at this point of the season.

As for Butler, I honestly don’t know how they managed to beat both Syracuse and Kansas State. The Bulldogs didn’t play exceptionally well in either game. The win over the Orange wasn’t shocking…Syracuse was overrated all season, they had no depth, a coach that refuses to waver from his gimmick defense, and played in the overhyped Big East. Despite that, Butler choked a large lead away late in the game and almost choked a second lead away in the closing seconds. The win against KSU was much more impressive, but a lot of it was due to the Wildcats playing stupid. It’s hard to pick which of the Elite Eight participants had a lower basketball IQ between KSU, Baylor or Tennessee. My money is on Tennessee (fouling with 1.8 seconds to go in a tie game and having Bruce Pearl as the coach puts them over the top), but Kansas State is a not so distant second. The Wildcats were down most of their contest against Butler, came back to take the lead late, then completely collapsed in the final two minutes of the game. The Wildcats went away from everything that worked nearly perfectly in the first 18 minutes of the second half and played street ball in the game’s final 120 seconds. Meanwhile, Frank Martin just kind of stood there with three veins popping out of his neck and let it happen. So how much of that win was Butler, and how much of it was Kansas State? I tend to lean toward KSU giving away the game rather than Butler reaching out and earning the win.

I’m having a hard time figuring out a way that Butler will win this game. Yes, they’ll be the sentimental favorite, since they are the only non-big school in the event. Yes, their campus is six miles from Lucas Oil Stadium. Yes, their fans will have an easy trip to the arena. But you have to remember that Butler is a university of only about 4,000 students, with a very small alumni base. Their entire undergrad enrollment could show up, and they’d barely be noticed in the 65,000+ football stadium. Plus, it’s not as if Michigan State and West Virginia are that far from Indianapolis (and you’ll have all the bandwagon Dook fans crawl out of hiding after nine seasons). I don’t think the homecourt advantage will be that big of a factor. Maybe if Purdue or Indiana were playing, but not Butler.

On the court the matchup still favors the Spartans. We all know that Butler is not the most skilled team out there, but they’ve managed to beat a physical Syracuse team and a fast Kansas State team. The difference in their game Saturday will be the coaching. Tom Izzo is by far the best coach that Brad Stevens has gone against all season. Without Lucas, MSU has become a team with no true identity, but they are able to play to their opponent’s pace and still win. Against Maryland, the Spartans were able to run and outscore the Terps. They slugged out a defensive win against Northern Iowa. Then they did a little bit of everything in their win over the Vols. Whatever the Bulldogs throw at Michigan State, I have no doubt that the Spartans will be able to handle it and overcome it.
Pick: Michigan State 72, Butler 64

#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (31-6, 13-5 Big East) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (33-5, 13-3 ACC)

Well, I’ll say this about the second semifinal: thank goodness this isn’t the championship game. No matter what happens Saturday, I’ll have a team I can cheer for on Monday…and it’s not going to be the team that wins this contest. The good news is one of these teams goes home. It’s either the team coached by the alcoholic cheater with a fan base full of rednecks, or it’s the Dookies (see posts from 2006, 07, 08, 09 and 10 for more details on those punks). It’s a win-win for me and the country.

For those still not sure if CBS and NCAA are trying to hand this championship to the Devils, whether it be ignoring the fact that the Dookies got an undeserved #1 seed and basically a clear path to the Final Four, the evidence continues to mount that the 2010 tournament is going to be a lot like the 2001 version. Observe the last five minutes against Baylor. Now many in the media, even some that are vehemently anti-Dook, came to the Devils rescue over the weekend. When many around the nation were ready to blast the officiating, the columnists and reporters defended the refs, saying that the Dookies earned a hard-nose win and that Baylor choked a little towards the end of the game. You won’t hear many arguments from me on the latter part. The Bears certainly tightened up a little down the stretch. Baylor wasn’t known this year for playing smart basketball, and they certainly didn’t help their cause last weekend. But to argue the refs didn’t help Duke out…really? I guess we should go to the video tape.

With under five minutes to go, Baylor held a two-point lead. The Bears had the ball and Quincy Acy attacked the hoop. The Galactic Space Alien slid his body as awkwardly as possible toward the baseline and drew a charging call. Here’s the video. Not only was that a clear blocking call, but the Alien was under the hoop when he took the contact. Despite not having the NBA circle, that type of charge attempt being illegal was supposed to be a point of emphasis for officials this season. If those two factors aren’t enough, then check out the baseline replay of the “charge”. Not only is the Alien’s left leg not set, but it appears his left hand hits Acy’s right arm, which of course would generally be a foul. So let’s see…contact directly under the hoop (which usually favors the offense), a charging call that wasn’t and a hack on Acy’s arm while shooting. Baylor should have gone up by four points and Acy should have been at the line for one. The Alien should have been removed from the game with his fifth foul. Instead, the Dookies get the ball back and hit a three on the next possession to take the lead. To argue this call didn’t change the outcome of the game is absurd. The momentum swings around completely. A Baylor team that is already a little bit nervous and easily flustered struggles to get over that call…even more so when the three is made on the other end. Furthermore, the goofy Alien is 7’1” and well over 250 pounds. Acy barely makes body contact with him, and he goes flopping across the floor. Seriously, the NCAA needs to put a stop to players of the Alien’s size flopping like this. PLAY DEFENSE! Stop being a wuss and try to block the shot. Or anticipate the drive and make the player go around you. Either way, players like this shouldn’t be rewarded by being awkward and playing poor defense.

Just in case that call wasn’t enough, the refs then called two bogus hand-checks on Baylor in the following minutes. The same hand-checking that had gone un-called throughout the entire game (and entire tournament by just about every single team). Finally, when the game was just about to get out of hand, this scrum took place. The refs made sure that Baylor wouldn’t comeback by calling a technical foul on Acy. Again, watch the replay. The Screamer throws two elbows, runs away from the argument, then pleads to the refs for a call with a smug grin on his face. Not surprisingly, the tech is called on Baylor (for what I’m not sure…it doesn’t appear that Acy or Nolan Smith do much of anything). In most situations, the tech would be called on the Screamer, or off-setting techs would be called on Acy or Smith, or no technicals would be called at all. Normally the refs would step in, separate the teams, and warn the coaches. No punches were thrown (if you don’t count the elbows) and it didn’t even appear like there was a lot of trash-talking that took place. Of course, this isn’t a normal situation. The refs put the hammer down on Baylor and effectively ended the game.

So there you have it. An awful charging call resulted in a momentum change and five-point swing. Two bad hand checks made sure the Dookies would extend the lead. A very questionable technical foul was given to make sure Baylor would roll-over. I’m not saying that the combination of those four calls were the only reason that Baylor lost because the Bears didn’t help their own cause. It’s just something to think about. And if there’s any karma left in the tournament, then Dook’s run ends right here.
Pick: West Virginia 69, Duke 66

2010 NCAA Tournament: South/Midwest Regional Finals

2010-03-28T12:36:00.000-04:00

#3 Baylor Bears (28-7, 11-5 Big XII) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (32-5, 13-3 ACC)
Reliant Stadium – Houston, TX
South Regional Final

Well, it looks like the Dookies will finally be tested before their golden road paved by the tournament committee and CBS turns towards Indianapolis. Unfortunately, the testing will come from Baylor, a team that is immature and streaky…exactly the kind of team that Ratface and company tend to do well against. Baylor certainly possesses the horses to matchup with the Dookies, but I don't know if they possess the mindset.

Ratface somehow managed to drag this Dook team to the Elite Eight for the first time in a loooooooong time (especially considering the talent that he’s wasted the last few seasons). He also managed to be a team that was a fifth seed or higher for the first time in a looooooooong time. So two monkeys came off the back at once for the Devils. However, you need to look at that game honestly. Purdue had no business being a four seed in this tournament, and even if they did, the Boilermakers didn’t have the services of their top player. Despite that, Purdue hung with the Blow Devils for 35 minutes. At one point, they held the Dookies without a basket for an eight-minute stretch. To say that Dook is breezing through their soft early tournament slate would be false. They could have easily lost to Purdue; they could have easily lost to California. The tired legs which usually befall the Devils in early February have arrived. It may be a month late, but they are here nonetheless. Case in point: since their win against Maryland, The Screamer has shot a meager 32% over the last 13 games. The rest of the team’s shooting percentages haven’t fared much better. So in other words, the Dookies are there for the taking. All an opponent needs to do is score 65-70 points, and they should be able to win the game.

Meanwhile, the Bears finally showed why they were worthy of a #3 seed in their blowout win over Saint Mary’s. LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter were ally-ooping. Ekpe Udoh was grabbing boards. The Bears used their eight-man rotation to wear out the Gaels. The bench chipped in 21 points and seven rebounds. Defensively, the Bears ran three different players at Omar Samhan and frustrated him all night long. Samhan didn’t appear comfortable inside until the game was well out of hand. While none of the three possessed Samhan’s offensive skills, they were simply more athletic than he was, and got him off his game in the early going. Before Scott Drew knew it, his team was up 29 at halftime.

The Bears have to come in to this game knowing that they will get zero calls. Without Kentucky, the CBS/NCAA conglomerate needs a marquis team in the Final Four. You think Butler is going to draw rating? The network is so sure it has the Dookies advancing, that CBS and the NCAA are probably already planning a half-hour special on former Dook-punk Christian Laettner…assuming that Laettner can put down the weed and make it to Indianapolis or a television studio. And since this is a young Bears team that doesn’t have a lot of experience playing 5-on-8 (Big XII basketball officials tend to be some of the better refs in the game…college football is a different story, but I digress), they can’t let early calls rattle them. Talent-wise, Baylor is the better team. They’ll also have the home-court advantage since they are playing about three hours from Waco. Dook’s front line has the same skill set of Omar Samhan. That means they can finish around the basket as long as they are playing someone smaller than and just as awkward as they are. Against a quick and physical front line, like that of Baylor, Dook’s frontcourt has no advantage. So if the frontcourt battle is a draw, and the Screamer can’t find his jump shot by about 5:30, Baylor should win this game. I guess I just talked myself into it.
Pick: Baylor 67, Duke 62

#6 Tennessee Volunteers (28-8, 11-5 SEC) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (27-8, 14-4 Big Ten)
Edward Jones Dome – St. Louis, MO
Midwest Regional Finals

The Volunteers are really starting to annoy me. Of the eight teams that made it this far, they are probably the least deserving. Bruce Pearl’s act has gotten real old, real fast. And his son appears to be molded in the exact same clay. The annoying fauxhawk has to go. I kind of wish someone would deck young Steven Pearl. The kid doesn’t average two points a game, he’s only on the team because daddy is the coach and he only plays because half the team ended up in jail. Yet he runs up and down the court making a complete fool of himself, preening to the crowd whenever he gets a chance. It’s one thing when a guy like Greivis Vasquez does it, since he has the stats to back up his talk. But when a spoiled daddy’s-boy acts like that, it becomes very irritating.

Tom Izzo continues to dare you to pick against him. Is there any remaining doubt that Izzo is currently the best coach in the entire nation? I’d like someone to prove to me otherwise. Last season, he took the Spartans as a two seed, in what was supposed to be a top heavy tournament, and beat 3-seeded Kansas, top overall seed Louisville and another one seed UConn (and remember…MSU blew out Louisville and UConn, those games were never close). That was a very young and untested Spartans team. This season as a five seed, he’s had to deal with several injuries to his best two guards. While the bracket in front of Izzo collapsed a little bit, I don’t think many people would have had Izzo getting to the doorstep of another Final Four without Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen for the majority of his first three games.

The Izzo factor is good enough for me, considering that his opposition is Pearl. I’ve underestimated Tennessee, just like I underestimated Butler. I saw that Kansas State-Butler game as basically a tossup. I assumed that KSU’s athleticism would take over. But I knew if push came to shove, then Frank Martin would be too busy yelling as his players to focus on the game (and I was right, the Wildcats absolutely crapped the bed in the final two minutes of that game). However, I don’t see this game as a tossup, not with the coaching matchup so heavily favoring Michigan State. This may be the game where the Spartans undermanned backcourt finally catches up to them. This might be the game where they get tired because their depth has been exhausted. This could be the game when their jump shots finally stop falling. But I wouldn’t count on it.
Pick: Michigan State 71, Tennessee 63

2010 NCAA Tournament: East/West Regional Finals

2010-03-27T13:43:00.002-04:00

#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (30-6, 13-5 Big East) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (35-2, 14-2 SEC)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
East Regional Finals

So it looks as if the Wildcats are the only powerhouse team left standing. CBS got their dream regional final, and are now just inches away from their dream Final Four matchup with Kentucky and the Dookies. So if you are West Virginia, don’t expect ANY calls in this game. You’re not going to get them. Especially not with the reputation Bob Huggins has with the referees.

I was actually impressed with Kentucky’s performance against Cornell. Even though the Cats were stronger, faster and taller than just about any player the Big Red threw on the court, they still had to think their way through that game. Superior athleticism alone wasn’t the reason Kentucky won. They had their struggles, like when they only scored nine points in the first 12 minutes of the 2nd half, but they played a good defensive game and were workman-like on offense in the back stretch. And thanks to the bozos at CBS, most of us in the Washington area were subjected to the majority of that crime against basketball that Cornell was playing instead of being allowed to watch the much more exciting Kansas State-Xavier game.

Ok, to this game. Those at home want to find some sort of fault in Kentucky. Well, the schedule is one. When the Wildcats scheduled North Carolina, UConn, Louisville and Indiana, they thought that those four traditional powerhouses would be respectable. Only Louisville had a decent season…and when the two teams played in early January, the Cardinals were playing terrible basketball. So the four premier games outside the conference that Kentucky set up didn’t live up to expectations. The Cats also played Stanford (and needed overtime to beat them) and Sam Houston State, along with the usual assortment of scrubs and guaranteed wins. Then Kentucky descended into their SEC schedule, and weren’t really challenged for most of that slate. On the other hand, West Virginia scheduled just as aggressively as Kentucky did, but their gambles actually paid off. The Mountaineers had games against Texas A&M, Purdue and Ohio State. While Purdue embarrassed the Queers, WVU won the other two games. Then West Virginia had to trek through their Big East schedule. For the second straight year, we’ve seen that the Big East is vastly overrated. But no matter what you think about the Big East, it was still leaps and bounds better than the SEC. So the one big advantage WVU has is the fact they’ve been tested a few more times than Kentucky. The other main advantage is experience. West Virginia is led by two seniors, a handful of juniors and sophomore Devin Ebanks. The Wildcats obviously rely on a core group of freshman and junior Patrick Patterson.

That’s pretty much where the advantages for WVU stop. Between Ebanks and Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia may have one bona fide NBA prospect on its roster. Kentucky not only has four guys who are shoo-ins for the NBA, all four players may be lottery picks. The talent is slanted heavily in Kentucky’s favor. West Virginia is a great rebounding team, but Kentucky is better. West Virginia plays great team defense, but Kentucky can beat it. The Mountaineers haven’t seen a team with two stud post players, two guys who are lights out beyond the arc in Eric Bledsoe and Darius Miller, and they’ve certainly never seen a player as quick as John Wall in the Big East. Combine that with the fact that John Calipari-teams tend to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament, while Huggins has a long history of underachieving (while at Cincinnati and last year's one and done as a six seed), and the talent discrepancy on the floor and on the sideline is bordering on unfair.

In a just world, there would be a way where both of these scumbag coaches found a way to lose this game. Unfortunately, unless the Carrier Dome roof collapse, that doesn’t look very likely. On a personal level, I guess I loathe Huggins a little more than I do Calipari. Kentucky also stands a better chance of beating Duke if they advance. So for the sake of the rest of college basketball, the Wildcats need to win this game. And besides, chances are Kentucky will have to forfeit this game sometime in the next couple of years.
Pick: Kentucky 73, West Virginia 66

#5 Butler Bulldogs (31-4, 18-0 Horizon) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (29-7, 11-5 Big XII)
Energy Solutions Arena – Salt Lake City, UT
West Regional Finals

Butler has a chance to do what only George Mason could accomplish in 2006. They have a chance to get to the Final Four before their other powerhouse mid-major brethren like Gonzaga, Xavier or pick-your-favorite Mountain West team. Like Mason in ‘06, I’ve overlooked the Bulldogs every step of the way (well, I guess I picked them over Murray State). I can promise you that I will continue to overlook them as the tournament moves on.

I do want to thank 15-year-old coach Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs for ridding the tournament of Syracuse and Jim Boeheim. Like Huggins and Calipari above, Boeheim is scum that doesn’t deserve another National Championship ring (he barely deserved his first), and the Bulldogs saved me from a potential Syracuse-Dook national final game. Ugh, what a nightmare that would have been. Similar to Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl or a Yankees-Phillies World Series (I’m told those two teams played last October, but I’m pretty sure I blocked it out). Furthermore, the annoying Syracuse contingent at work can stop making plans to travel to Indianapolis next weekend. On second thought, I hope they do go to Indy (since it’s far away from me), but they won’t get to see their Orange. Tough break.

This is one region where I was pretty much on the money (other than underrating Butler). I had Syracuse, Kansas State and Xavier all in the Sweet 16. I had Kansas State reaching the Final Four. If I thought the Wildcats could beat the Orange a week ago, then it’s going to be pretty tough to convince me that they won’t beat the Butler. Crazy Frank Martin can run players at you in waves. KSU is a legitimate 10-deep. Almost all their players are a couple of inches bigger than their position counterparts. They can all run up and down the floor. Denis Clemente, who was an afterthought at Miami, has transformed into a guy who can score 17 points a night in a variety of ways. Obviously Jacob Pullen is the engine that makes it all go. And Martin uses five different big men who can all board and love to operate within 10-feet of the hoop. The size and depth (something Syracuse did not have) of the Wildcats should allow them to slip past the Bulldogs.
Pick: Kansas State 70, Butler 65

2010 NCAA Tournament: Regional Semifinals, Day 2

2010-03-26T14:36:00.005-04:00

SOUTH REGION

Reliant Stadium
Houston, TX
#4 Purdue Boilermakers (29-5, 14-4 Big Ten) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (31-5, 13-3 ACC)
Well, the bracket is all clear for the Devils. The little resistance that was here was eliminated with indifference (Villanova) and with a poorly-officiated game (Texas A&M). Baylor is a nice team, but they simply don’t have the postseason experience to get by the Dookies, and they may not even get by St. Mary’s. Purdue really shouldn’t have gotten this far, and they certainly don’t have anyone to matchup with White Stiff and the Dumblees. So that pretty much sums up a bracket that was Dook’s for the taking to begin with.

For all those who think that this was no conspiracy, just a terrible job by the selection committee, better wake up. A few posts ago, I posted this article. While most of it is conjecture, there is definitely some truth behind it. Dook’s two games so far have been played in primetime. The broadcast team sent to Jacksonville to cover those two games was CBS’ A-team of Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg (Personally, I think those two are terrible together…but CBS doesn’t think so. I would much rather listen to Gus, Lundquist, Brando or Harlan). Traditionally, CBS has sent Nantz to the first round site of the overall number one seed. They usually don’t send their top broadcasting unit to a site with the “third” #1 seed, Wisconsin-Wofford, Temple-Cornell and Louisville-California. Heck, CBS doesn’t even know that California has their own team. I'd be surprised if they could locate Berkeley or the state of California on a map. The Jacksonville sub-regional may have been the least entertaining of the eight. It would have made more sense for Nantz to go to Oklahoma City, where Kansas, Kansas State, Florida (two-time defending champs not too long ago) and Jimmer Fredette were waiting. It would have made more sense to send Nantz and Kellogg to Buffalo, where Syracuse, Big East Champ West Virginia, Clemson, Missouri, Gonzaga and Florida State were all playing. But CBS decides to send Nantz to Jacksonville. Now CBS is sending them to Houston, when either Salt Lake City or Syracuse are better regionals. So you tell me…did the committee just make a serious blunder putting the brackets together, or did CBS and the NCAA make a conscious effort to protect their one “commodity” and make more money in their next contract at the expense of a fair tournament?
Pick: Duke 65, Purdue 54

#10 Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#3 Baylor Bears (27-7, 11-5 Big XII)
Everyone is stunned by the Gaels entry into the Sweet 16. Don’t be fooled, this is a very good team. This team reminds me of the Gonzaga squads of the mid-to-late 90’s that were always overlooked and always pulled at least one upset. The Gaels win over Richmond really doesn’t qualify as an upset; even I picked it. Seeing how Villanova played in the last three weeks of the season, I’m not so sure it’s a huge upset that Saint Mary’s beat them either. The Gaels have certainly earned their way to this position. By the way, does anyone else think Omar Samhan looks exactly like Jordan Williams, or is it just me?

This is exactly the kind of team that can give Baylor fits. The Gaels are led primarily by upper classmen. They’ve played five teams outside their conference that made the tournament, and won four of those games. They also had to play Gonzaga three times this year, and won in the WCC Tournament final when it really counted. This is a veteran team that’s been tested and won’t be intimidated playing against a team from the Big XII. On top of that, Baylor has fooled around with Sam Houston State and Old Dominion, two teams that aren’t nearly as good as Saint Mary’s. The Bears should have enough talent to escape, but expect this game to be very close since Ekpe Udoh is the only answer for Samhan inside, and he’s not a physical big man.
Pick: Baylor 68, Saint Mary’s 65

WEST REGION

Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, MO
#6 Tennessee Volunteers (27-8, 11-5 SEC) vs.
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (29-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
I think this will be the dud game of the night on Friday. Tennessee has played San Diego State and Ohio so far, while the Buckeyes were at least tested in the 2nd round against a taller Georgia Tech team. Tennessee looks a lot like OSU on paper, except with less talent. All the experts like to focus on the Buckeyes' Evan Turner, and that’s fine. Turner is an outstanding player. But don’t forget guys like Will Buford and David Lighty. Lighty played tremendously when Turner was hurt earlier in the season, and the big three for OSU have all been clicking since the calendar flipped to March.

Again, on paper, this appears to be a mismatch. Tennessee doesn’t shoot, score or rebound as well as Ohio State. They don’t play defense as well as Ohio State. They haven’t gone through a conference ringer like Ohio State. 11-5 in the SEC wouldn’t really intimidate me. The Vols barely beat SDSU, then had the bracket collapse so they could advance to the Sweet 16. All signs point to a relatively big OSU win.
Pick: Ohio State 74, Tennessee 60

#9 Northern Iowa Panthers (30-4, 15-3 MVC) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (26-8, 14-4 Big Ten)
I’m still sort of stunned by Maryland’s loss to Michigan State. Probably hasn’t set in yet. I’ll say this about the game: the better team won. At least the better team on that Sunday. Michigan State outplayed Maryland for 35 minutes. It took two injuries to key Spartan guards to allow the Terps to comeback. Greivis Vasquez played an amazing game, and almost won the game single-handedly. And I’d certainly rather Maryland go out like that, to a classy team with classy coach, then to get down double-digits and roll over, like Georgetown or Villanova. Still, the buzzer-beater ending was a little too much to take.

I don’t know what Tom Izzo is going to do without Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen (who still may or may not play). If the end of the Maryland game was any indication, the Spartans may have a hard time handling the ball and may be at a severe disadvantage in the backcourt. If you didn’t notice, Ali Farokhmanesh has been killing it in the tournament…just ask a Kansas fan if you can find one. Along with fellow guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe and potential future NBA-center Jordan Egleseder, the Spartans may actually face mismatches all over the court. But, if I’ve learned one thing over the years, and anything from last Sunday, it’s that you never count Tom Izzo teams out in the NCAA Tournament. Especially not one that has plenty of talent even without Lucas.
Pick: Michigan State 71, Northern Iowa 64

2010 NCAA Tournament: Regional Semifinals, Day 1

2010-03-25T15:26:00.003-04:00

EAST REGION

Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY
#12 Cornell Big Red (29-4, 13-1 Ivy) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (34-2, 14-2 SEC)
The fact that Kentucky gets Cornell makes this game easy to analyze. No one doubts John Calipari’s ability to coach, recruit or break the NCAA rules. Emphasis on the last of the three. But the man can still coach. If I’m Big John, I look at my team and I look at Cornell. I run up and down the court on every possession. If Kentucky is suckered into a half-court game against this team, then something is seriously wrong. Calipari should use his four potential lottery picks to run Cornell off the court. And for those who think Cornell may have a home-court advantage since they are less than an hour from Syracuse, I would caution against that assumption. Kentucky travels for basketball, and travels well. Probably better than any other school in the country.
Pick: Kentucky 84, Cornell 66

#11 Washington Huskies (26-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs.
#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (29-6, 13-5 Big East)
Everyone seems shocked about Washington, but there’s no reason to be. The Pac-10 played much better basketball in February and March than anyone gave them credit for. Since all the experts had written off the conference in January, no one bothered to pay attention. The Huskies have two dynamic scorers in Quincy Poindexter and Isaiah Thomas. Combine them with several very good role players, a good coach in Lorenzo Romar and you have yourself a pretty good basketball team that underachieved for the first four months of the season. UW has been clicking for the past few weeks, and they’ve already beaten a Big East team in this tournament.

As for West Virginia, the Darryl Bryant may be addition by subtraction. Bryant’s been starting recently for WVU, but he really doesn’t fit in to the overall scheme of scumbag Bob Huggins (Huggins, Ratface, Calipari, Bruce Pearl…even Jim Boeheim has been known to pay a player or two. It’s scumbag central in the Sweet 16. All we’re missing is Jim Calhoun. Thank goodness coaches like Tom Izzo and Romar are still around). Without Bryant, it will be easier for Huggins to figure out his rotation. It just seemed like too many guys weren’t getting enough playing time for Queers with Bryant in the lineup. Huggins may run into a problem if Joe Mazzula can't stay out of foul trouble and cause WVU to lose depth in the backcourt. Otherwise, I don't think the injury will be much of an issue.

Anyway, this one will probably go WVU’s way. They have the defensive mindset to shut down or limit Poindexter and Thomas. Without those two firing, the rest of the team kind of withers. And you can be sure the NCAA is going to keep trying to set up the Calipari-Huggins Elite 8 before a Calipari-Ratface Final Four.
Pick: West Virginia 67, Washington 59

WEST REGION

Energy Solutions Arena
Salt Lake City, UT
#5 Butler Bulldogs (30-4, 18-0 Horizon) vs.
#1 Syracuse Orange (30-4, 15-3 Big East)
After losses to Louisville and Georgetown emptied the Syracuse bandwagon a little bit, two commanding wins in the NCAA Tournament have filled it back up. Oh my God, the 2-3 zone is back! Boeheim is a genius! He has this team believing in defense! Yuck. My question is when is Syracuse going to face an actual team? For all the complaining done about Duke’s easy road (and yes, that road is still ridiculously easy), Syracuse could potentially play Vermont, Gonzaga, Butler and Xavier (obviously KSU will have something to say about that) to reach the Final Four. Even though three of the best mid-major programs are on that list, they’re still mid-majors. I don’t think I ever seen an easier road to the Final Four than that potential path. If the Muskies pull an upset, that’d be an absolute joke.

Meanwhile, Boeheim pulled a fast one on the tournament committee. After Arinze Onuaku was injured against Georgetown in round three of the eight round Big East Tournament, Boeheim and the Orange immediately went into spin mode. Knowing that Cuse wouldn’t play again until the tournament, Boeheim said that Onuaku has a knee strain. Anyone watching the game knew that was total B.S. Viewers could hear an audible pop when Onuaku came down funny. His own teammate was even overheard saying to the doctors that he heard a pop. But no one could argue with the report since the Orange wouldn’t play again for another week. Boeheim figured if the committee knew how serious Onuaku’s knee injury was, the Orange would be stripped of a potential #1 seed and be destined for a Purdue-like fate (especially since the team only has six other capable players). So for the days leading up to the selection show, the reports from Syracuse were that Onuaku would be fine and would likely play in the first round game. But all of a sudden, less than 24 hours after the selection show and after the #1 seed was secure, Onuaku was pretty much ruled out for the first weekend’s games. Very dirty move by Boeheim. As you can see, lying about the severity of a player’s injury has affected the draw positively for Syracuse. Congrats Orange fans, your coach is officially a douche bag.

Whether Onuaku plays or not, Syracuse should have no problem getting by Butler. The Bulldogs looked simply average against UTEP and Murray State. Now they have to face a team with more talent. I don’t expect this to be close after halftime.
Pick: Syracuse 74, Butler 62

#6 Xavier Musketeers (26-8, 14-2 A-10) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (28-7, 11-5 Big XII)
I know I had KSU in my Final Four, but until last weekend, I wasn’t really sold on the Wildcats. Their efforts against North Texas and BYU really impressed me. Unlike most high seeds, they didn’t fool around at all with their first round opponent. Then after a back-and-forth first ten minutes against BYU, the Wildcats put them away rather easily. I’m still not sure this team can rebound against an equally athletic team, and I’m not sure what will happen to this team if they get into a 40-minute game, but I’m feeling a whole lot better about that Final Four pick right now.

Xavier continues to roll along. I’m convinced you could pluck someone off the street and they could somehow get Xavier to the Sweet 16. This team seemingly changes coaches every season and doesn’t miss a beat. Jordan Crawford, who would be playing for Indiana right now if it wasn’t for Kelvin Sampson, may be the best player left in this tournament not named John Wall. Seriously, if you didn’t get a chance to see Xavier last week, do yourself a favor and check out this game. He only has 55 points in two games so far. Crawford is far better than anyone on Kansas State’s roster. I doubt that anyone on the Wildcats has the discipline to stay with him for 40 minutes. I also doubt that Crawford’s teammates will be able to help him any in critical situations. I’ll take the more complete team here.
Pick: Kansas State 76, Xavier 71

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 2

2010-03-21T00:22:00.008-04:00

#5 Michigan State Spartans (25-8, 14-4 Big Ten) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (24-8, 13-3 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 2nd Round, Midwest Region
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA

Maryland didn’t play a great game, but they played an OK one. It seemed like they either slept in for the first ten minutes or were really nervous. Either way, the last 30 minutes of the game were pretty much all Maryland. Houston had one plan, drive to the hoop and hope for a foul. And even though the refs gave them plenty of calls, if the refs didn’t give them a foul, their offense was pretty much non-existent. Aubrey Coleman was as good as advertised, but did most of his damage in the first half. After Gary Williams got a good look at him, the Terps defense adjusted. Instead of trying to front him with a guard and have a forward close by, Maryland simply denied Coleman the ball in the 2nd half. At one point, Coleman went about ten minutes without scoring.

Meanwhile, the Terps asserted themselves inside. They dominated the glass, thanks in large part to Jordan Williams. I said on this very page that Maryland was going to need a special effort from him in order to win. They certainly got one. With two minutes to go in the first half, Williams already had a double-double. For the first time in years, Maryland has an inside threat that the opponent has little answer for. His 21 points and rebounding ability just begin to describe the way that Williams changed the game the other night.

Other than that, no Terrapin gave a consistent effort, but a variety of players chipped in. Greivis Vasquez had a rather quiet 16-point performance. There were a couple of big drives and layups to stop potential Houston runs. He also added seven boards and six assists. Despite 19 points, Landon Milbourne made a variety of defensive errors and disappeared from the game for long stretches. But like Williams, he was instrumental to Maryland’s 47-26 advantage on the boards. Eric Hayes added 11 and six, hitting a couple of key threes. Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker played well (I was especially happy with Tucker’s effort defensively). So all and all it was a good game. Maryland never really put the Cougars away, but just kept them at arm’s length until time ran out.

The Terrapins move on to play Michigan State, a team that Terps fans have seen a lot of the past couple of seasons. Twice in the last three years, Maryland has run into the Spartans in a preseason tournament. Three years ago it was in the Coaches vs. Cancer event at MSG. Two years ago it was down at in Orlando in whatever tournament Disney hosts. Both times Maryland was victorious. However, in the last meeting between these two in the tournament in 2003, the Spartans were good enough to eek out a one-point victory in the Sweet 16. That was the last time that Maryland has made the regional semifinals, and it’s a little ironic that it’s Michigan State that stands in their way once again.

As we all know by now, the Spartans are led by Tom Izzo. For my money, there are only two coaches that are better than Gary in gameday preparation and in-game adjustments: Izzo and Rick Pitino. And I’m starting to have serious doubts about Pitino (down 24-4 to California…yikes). Simply put, Izzo could have a bunch of high-schoolers, and I would still be worried about his team in the tournament.

Obviously Izzo doesn’t have a high-school team. He has plenty of talent, even though Michigan State comes in to the NCAA Tournament struggling and comes in to this game a little banged up. Delvon Roe plays for the Spartans on a bad knee that will probably need surgery at the end of the season. Chris Allen, who has been in Izzo’s doghouse and was suspended for the Big Ten Tournament, appeared to seriously injure himself in the first round game against New Mexico State. Kalin Lucas also went down for a little while with injury against the Aggies, but he came back and it didn’t appear to affect him during at 25-point performance.

The Spartans limped to the finish line in conference. Like I mentioned on Friday, Sparty won three of their last five regular season games, but those wins came against the worst the Big Ten has to offer (and two of the games very close). They then lost their first Big Ten Tourney game against Minnesota with Allen watching from the bench. In their first round tournament game against NMSU, Michigan State raced out to a 13-point halftime lead. Then they kind of fell apart in the 2nd half and needed a questionable lane violation call to finally put away the pesky Aggies. Michigan State won most of the statistical battles, but played poorly at crucial times in the game. MSU has been inconsistent for the last month or two, and the good and bad Spartans both showed up against New Mexico State.

However, it’s crucial to remember that this is the same team that was ranked #2 in the country at the beginning of the season and was in the National Championship game one year ago. Along with Lucas, Allen and Roe, MSU also has Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green, Durrell Summers and Korie Lucious. The Spartans are so talented that Lucious and Roe don’t even start. They’d probably be in the starting lineup for about 95% of Division 1 teams. Even though the Spartans don’t possess that huge 6’10” power forward that most Big Ten teams have, they have the tradition collection of 6’8” athletic forwards that Izzo loves (think the college version of Zach Randolph or Jason Richardson). This is the #1 team in the entire nation in rebounding margin as a result. This is a completely different team than Houston. Maryland went into their first game knowing they’d own the glass, but will go into this game knowing that they probably won’t.

The Spartans main weaknesses are from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. Allen and Lucas are their only real threats from deep, and the team as a whole shoots only 33.5%. At the free throw line, MSU is 68.2% as a team. Morgan, Green and Roe are all suspect at the stripe. The Spartans also tend to be careless with the ball (averaging around 14 turnovers a game). This again is a stark contrast to a Houston team that was one of the best in the nation at protecting the rock.

Maryland has to worry about Lucas first. He is the engine of this team. He leads MSU in points and assists. If Maryland can limit or frustrate him, the Spartans will fall apart. Without him, their big men don’t get the ball (except on second chances) and Michigan State becomes a team that relies on jump shots. With Lucas playing his best, MSU can do whatever they want offensively. And don’t expect the Terps to put up 89 points again. The Spartans play a typical brand of Big Ten defense, and usually allow less than 65 points a game.

Meanwhile, Maryland has shot poorly from three in their last few games. The Terps were only 4-17 against Houston, and most of the shots they missed were open. Chances are, given another chance at shots like that, Maryland will make many more threes. Vasquez has been rather quiet since the second Duke game, and I have a feeling he’s due for a 23-point or more effort. The question is who will help him.

Alright Greivis, here's your last chance to make a run deep into March.

There’s no way Jordan is going to have another 21 points, 17 board game. He won’t be the focal point of the offense, and if he is, Maryland is in trouble. The Terps are going to need Hayes, Mosley and the bench guards to step up and win this one. Even though MSU is scary talented, I’d still take Maryland’s backcourt over Izzo’s. The Williams-Milbourne-Gregory frontcourt needs to hold their own and not get dominated. It’s one thing to lose the rebounding battle, but Maryland can’t lose it by more than six or seven boards. The good news for Maryland is the health of Allen. Not only is he their best three-point shooter, but he is Michigan State’s best on the ball defender. Without him, Lucas will be forced to guard Vasquez. Lucas gives up five inches to Greivis (another reason he could have a breakout game). Plus, if Lucas exerts all his energy on the defensive end, then his offense will be hindered. Allen will probably play, but I doubt he’s able to register 20 minutes.

We all know by now that the so-called Bracket of Death has collapsed a bit. Whichever team wins this game is going to be rewarded with a contest in St. Louis against Northern Iowa instead of scary Kansas. Somehow, I expect Maryland to scrap across a win. There are too many health questions and chemistry questions surrounding the Spartans. Vasquez is going to do enough to get this team to the Sweet 16.

Maryland 68
Michigan State 64

As for the rest of the country, my bracket is entirely shot. Kansas sunk it, but it really doesn’t matter to me if it helps Maryland in the long run. Anyway, I’ve simply run out of time (mostly work related reasons), so I’m only going to be able to give scores for the rest of the 2nd round games. I’ll be back in full on Thursday, and I’ll hopefully get a chance to talk more about the Terps on Friday.

Wisconsin 57, Cornell 51
West Virginia 78, Missouri 67
Duke 71, California 58
Texas A&M 63, Purdue 52
Ohio State 73, Georgia Tech 65
Syracuse 80, Gonzaga 77
Xavier 63, Pittsburgh 58

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 1

2010-03-20T11:33:00.003-04:00

Went 22-10 in the first round, which is pretty good considering I had to go 13-3 yesterday to get there. Some very interesting 2nd round matchups today. I think just about all eight of these games could go either way.

EAST REGION

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (20-10, 9-7 ACC) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (33-2, 14-2 SEC)
Kentucky was one of the few higher seeds that didn’t fool around at all in the first round. I thought ETSU could give them a little bit of trouble, since UK is a little young. John Wall and the Baby Cats showed a little bit of meddle and impressed me…even though you have to take their opponent into account.

The surprise here is the Demon Deacons. Dino Gaudio summoned all his coaching ability, and with help from Rick Barnes and some awful foul shooting from the Longhorns, escaped in to the 2nd round. Now with the pressure off of him and Wake a little bit, it will be interesting to see if they play loose. Obviously Kentucky doesn’t have that luxury, since they always have the crushing weight of Big Blue Nation on their shoulder. So that could be an advantage for the Deacs.

However, Wake played one of their better games of the past month to get past the Horns. Even with that performance, they needed overtime and some luck to win. Even though Al-Farouq Aminu may be one of the few forwards that can go toe-to-toe with Demarcus Cousins or Patrick Patterson, and Ish Smith is lightning quick (maybe even quicker than Wall), the talent level drops off from there. L.D. Williams and C.J. Harris will have to play better than normal for Wake to have a chance.
Pick: Kentucky 83, Wake Forest 68

HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA
#11 Washington Huskies (25-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs.
#3 New Mexico Lobos (30-4, 14-2 Mountain West)
The Huskies were successful in alleviating some of questions surrounding the Pacific-10 this season. Their win over one of the teams from “The Best Conference To Ever Exist Even Though Half Our Teams Lost In The First Round” saved a little face for maligned western basketball. On the other hand, New Mexico did little to convince people that the Mountain West should be taken seriously. San Diego State and UNLV were bounced in the first round. BYU needed two overtimes to get past Florida (a team that should not have been in the tournament to begin with). And the Lobos tried several times to give away their game with Montana.

So you have Washington, playing some of their best basketball of the season, facing New Mexico. The Lobos struggled during the MWC Tournament and then struggled in the first round. On top of that, Darington Hobson landed hard on his shooting hand Thursday night, and there’s no telling how well he’ll be able shoot (he struggled after the injury against the Grizzlies). Fortunately for the Lobos, Roman Martinez and Dairese Gary are capable of picking up the slack. If Phillip McDonald, a guy who turned down offers from Texas A&M and Texas Tech, ever gets going, then New Mexico could be really dangerous in this tournament. The UW-UNM matchup was one of the few that I correctly predicted, so I’m going to stick with my original prediction. The Lobos scrap a win together.
Pick: New Mexico 74, Washington 67

SOUTH REGION

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#11 Old Dominion Monarchs (27-8, 15-3 CAA) vs.
#3 Baylor Bears (26-7, 11-5 Big XII)
Like many out there, I wanted to take Baylor to go to at least the Elite Eight. But I had seen enough of the Bears to know that they are simply too inconsistent to be trusted. That inconsistency reared its head again in a narrow win against Sam Houston State. For periods of time, the Bears looked like the team that’s been anointed one of the tournament’s darkhorses. For other long periods of time, they looked like the team that lost to Colorado and Alabama and lost most of their games against the upper-echelon Big XII schools. Remember, despite the three seed, that was Baylor’s first tournament win in about 60 years. So none of these players have any postseason experience.

The good news for Baylor is they get a team that can’t possibly outscore them in ODU. The Monarchs could barely outscore the Fighting Irish, a team that made a habit of scoring under 60 points during the end of the regular season. The Bears should have enough fire power to cross the 60-point threshold, and that should be enough for Baylor.
Pick: Baylor 65, Old Dominion 53

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI
#10 St. Mary’s Gaels (27-5, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#2 Villanova Wildcats (25-7, 13-5 Big East)
So Villanova…what the hell was that? I don’t like one of my Final Four teams to be on the ropes by 2:30 p.m. on the first Thursday of the tournament. I took Villanova because Baylor wasn’t consistent enough, but it appears that may have been a big mistake. Taking any of the Big East teams appears to be a big mistake at this point. Let’s call a spade a spade here, the Wildcats played worse than Robert Morris. The Colonials should have won. RMU just got tight in the last couple of minutes and had a couple of questionable calls go against them.

In a day filled with drama, the Gaels were business-like. There was no doubt they’d beat the Spiders by about the 10-minute mark of the first half. You have to give the edge to St Mary’s coming because of the way they played. However, Villanova has done this before. They played terribly last season in the first round against American before reeling off three more victories on route to the Final Four. Let’s hope their game against RMU was a blip on the radar and not an on-coming trend
Pick: Villanova 77, St. Mary’s 71

MIDWEST REGION

Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK
#9 Northern Iowa Panthers (29-4, 15-3 MVC) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-2, 15-1 Big XII)
Any chance that Kansas had of being knocked off in the 2nd round went out the window when UNLV lost to Northern Iowa. Lots of experts have pointed to the fact that UNI plays at a slower pace and could potentially slow the Jayhawks down. That’s not going to happen. You have to be able to outscore Kansas to beat them. You can’t slow them down. A handful of Big XII teams tried that and failed. UNLV could potentially score with Kansas, and Lon Kruger has knocked off several higher seeds before. I don’t see Northern Iowa hanging in this game longer than 20 minutes.
Pick: Kansas 80, Northern Iowa 63

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI
#14 Ohio Bobcats (22-14, 7-9 MAC) vs.
#6 Tennessee Volunteers (26-8, 11-5 SEC)
Well done John Thompson III. You have Greg Monroe, Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, and you can’t win one tournament game in two seasons? Really? As much heat as Gary Williams gets in this town, it would be nice to see the Washington Post give a little (and much deserved) heat to Little Racist III. They never will, because every columnist and writer is terrified of his father. For the life of me, I still don’t understand why he’s running the Princeton offense with All-American talent. The loss to Ohio wasn’t the fault of the players, it was the fault of Thompson and Thompson alone. Georgetown gave up 97 points to a team that was under .500 in their conference. With all due respect to Ohio, who almost everyone ignored, that’s awful. That’s inexcusable. But will Thompson get criticized? Not in this market.

Kudos to the Bobcats, but can they do it again? Tennessee is a team that occasionally plays defense optional basketball. So if the Cats can’t shoot like they did Thursday, they certainly have a good chance. Unfortunately for Ohio, teams tend to shoot worse on Saturday and Sunday than they do in the first round because of tired legs. Don’t expect upset number two.
Pick: Tennessee 76, Ohio 66

WEST REGION

HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA
#13 Murray State Racers (31-4, 17-1 OVC) vs.
#5 Butler Bulldogs (29-5, 18-0 Horizon)
The three buzzer-beaters (or near buzzer-beaters) all hosed me yesterday. Northern Iowa, Wake and of course Murray State all managed to win in the closing seconds, changing my first day record from a respectable 12-4 to a dreadful 9-7. Those are the breaks I guess.

I like the Racers style of play, but I have a tendency to avoid the big double-digit seeds going into the Sweet 16. I know that one or two usually sneak in, but I don’t think I can pick them. Murray State is the poor quality opponent that Butler played most of the season. It will be interesting to see what the Bulldogs can do against Syracuse (although I’m hoping Syracuse loses before they get that chance).
Pick: Butler 71, Murray State 67

Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK
***The Predictor Game Of The Day***
#7 BYU Cougars (30-5, 13-3 Mountain West) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (27-7, 11-5 Big XII)
This might very well be the game that decides the direction that my bracket is going. I need Kansas State to get to the Final Four, or at least get to within one step of the Final Four, and I think this is their last real hurdle. I don’t think the Pitt-Xavier winner is going to matchup favorably against KSU, but the Cougars definitely do.

We found out Thursday that BYU is not a one man show. The Gators pushed them around and went bucket for bucket with the favorites. If BYU was just Jimmer Fredette, they wouldn’t be playing today. Sure his 37 points were impressive, but they needed more than that to hang with Florida. Strong performances from Jackson Emery and Michael Loyd Jr (who was only averaging 4.5 ppg before scoring 26) proved the Cougars aren’t a one-trick pony.

For Kansas State, they are going to need more of the balanced scoring they got in their first round game against North Texas. Fredette is going to have the advantage, no matter who he matches up with. But the Wildcats should have the advantage everywhere else. Denis Clemente, Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly and Dominique Sutton each scored in double figures (and other than Clemente, none of them played 30 minutes). Another performance like that should put KSU in the Sweet 16.
Pick: Kansas State 75, BYU 69

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2

2010-03-19T11:19:00.010-04:00

#13 Houston Cougars (19-15, 7-9 CUSA) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (23-8, 13-3 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 1st Round, Midwest Region
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA

Even though I briefly mentioned it during my ACC Semifinals preview, I wasn’t all that upset with Maryland’s loss in the ACC Tournament. I was over it in about ten minutes. It simply wasn’t that important for the Terps and it mattered for Georgia Tech. Maryland shot horribly the whole game. Jordan Williams was saddled with fouls. Sean Mosley scored exactly zero points. Other than forcing a bunch of turnovers, Maryland was outplayed in just about every other statistical category. The positives: no injuries and a good game from Landon Milbourne. Boy, did he need to have one. It gave them a week to rest up for the real tournament. So it was hard to be too upset about it.

It’s a good thing Maryland got a week off before the start of this thing. Before the selection show, I think most fans would have been happy with a five seed, but expecting somewhere around a six. The committee showed Maryland “respect” by giving them a four. But that’s respect with an asterisk. Despite getting one of 16 protected seeds, Maryland was sent as far away from home as possible. Why Wisconsin couldn’t be sent to Spokane and Maryland sent to Jacksonville is beyond me. That arrangement would have made sense for both teams. More importantly, the Terps were given a four seed in what is now being called the Region of Death.

Try to follow along if you can. At the top of this bracket is Kansas. Kansas was the tournament’s #1 overall seed (in name only). They are regular season and tournament champions of the best conference in basketball this season. At the bottom of this bracket is the two seed Ohio State. The Buckeyes were co-champions and tournament champions of the Big Ten. A hot Georgetown team was the three seed, but Little Racist III and company are coming back to D.C. a little early. How do you give up 97 points to Ohio? To sum up for JTIII…two years of Greg Monroe and Austin Freeman, but zero NCAA Tournament wins. Yikes. The fifth seed, potentially waiting for Maryland on Sunday, is Michigan State. The Spartans were another one of the co-champions of the Big Ten. Even further down the list you find sixth seed Tennessee. The Vols were ranked pretty much the entire season. Oklahoma State is the seven seed, one of only two teams to beat Kansas all season. The Cowboys were uber-competitive in the Big XII. Northern Iowa and their potential first round draft pick forward are in the region. Maryland’s nemesis Georgia Tech is even here too. If you asked me to create a nightmare bracket for the Terps, it would look something like this.

Just look at the coaches other than Gary Williams. You have former National Champion Bill Self. Former National Champion Tom Izzo (and that’s just on the top half of the bracket). Final Four participant Thad Matta is here. As much as I’ve made fun of him, Paul Hewitt led the Jackets to the Championship Game in 2004. This is just a brutal collection of 16 teams. By far one of the hardest regions I’ve seen in a long time. The other three regions are soft (the South is extremely soft). It’s as if the committee assembled the four regions separately, then slapped them together at the last minute without checking their overall body of work. I have no problem with Maryland playing hard teams. But they’d have to potentially beat Michigan State AND Kansas just to get to the regional finals…not even the Final Four. That’s a little extreme.

Well, there’s nothing Maryland can do about it. They have to play who they are assigned to play. In the first round, the Terrapins draw the C-USA Champion Houston Cougars. The Cougs are led by Tom Penders. That’s the same Tom Penders that built Texas up from the ground and the same Tom Penders who was fired from the Longhorns (and later George Washington) for a number of scandals. In Austin, Penders was run out of town for doctoring players’ grades. On a scale of one-to-ten, that’s certainly not the worst offense that ever occurred. However, Penders reign in Foggy Bottom was cut short after several problems. Not only were many of his players in question academically, Atilla Cosby was accused of rape and possessing firearms on campus. That’s disgusting, but it was made even worse by the fact that Penders tried to hide that from the GW administration. There was also a phone card issue with his son, who at the time was one of the assistant coaches. Those are just the cliff-notes of some of the issues. Google the rest if you are interested.

So Penders took a brief leave of absence then was forced into hiding in Houston. He built the Cougars up during his first three seasons on campus. Then when high expectations hit in 2006, his team bottomed out at 18-15. Following two 20-win seasons, but no NCAA Tournament appearances, Penders was on thin ice entering the 09-10 year. When his team finished the year 15-15, with losses to San Diego, Texas-San Antonio, Central Florida (twice), Southern Miss and Tulane, it was a well-known secret that Penders either had to win the CUSA Tournament or hit the unemployment line. The Cougars won four straight, including a thrilling comeback in the final against UTEP to claim the Tournament and save Penders’ job.

The Houston Cougars are led on the court by Aubrey Coleman. Coleman averaged an eye-popping 25.6 points a game. Not only was that best on the team and best in the conference, that was best in the entire NCAA. On top of his 25.6 ppg, he also averages 7.4 boards a game and 2.6 assists per. He’s a little reckless with the ball at times, and he doesn’t play a whole lot of defense. But if there’s someone who is easily comparable to the 6’4” guard, it’s none other than Greivis Vasquez. Like Vasquez, Coleman rarely sees a shot he doesn’t like. He’ll spot up from deep, but he’s much more effective when he’s driving to hoop. There aren’t a lot of ways to stop him. Taking a charge is one way, but that may come with other consequences. Like his coach, he comes with some baggage.

The problem with Coleman doing a little bit of everything is that few other players on Houston do anything. This is as close to a one-man team as you will see in college basketball. Most the plays that are run are for Coleman. They’ll set a lot of ball screens and pick-and-rolls for Coleman to get open. Other than that, the Cougars run some offensive sets for 6’4” guard Kelvin Lewis. Most of the other players are left to fend for themselves offensively. The Terps are going to face a team that is smaller than they are, and one of the few teams in Division 1 that are statistically worse at rebounding than they are. I watched most of the UTEP-Houston final, and I didn’t see one organized play run for any of the bigger Cougars. Houston brings new meaning to the term “guard-oriented”.

Jordan Williams will probably have a height advantage like this in the game today.

Other than Coleman and Lewis, the Terps will have to contend with about five other Houston players. Penders rarely goes eight-deep. Maurice McNeil is the only forward of note. He’s similar to Milbourne in a lot of ways, but he doesn’t have the range that Landon has. Kendrick Washington is the other forward who sees significant playing time. He’s a hefty freshman (6’7”, 270 lbs) that isn’t really in the shape to be much of a factor. The Cougars also use Zamal Nixon, Adam Brown and Desmond Wade in their backcourt. All are quick, but undersized guards. None of them shoot particularly well, especially from outside. The Cougars only shoot 35% for three as a team…and that number was much worse until a week ago. Coleman doesn’t shoot well from outside, but Lewis does. The two play off each other very well.

The big question for the Cougars is defense. While Houston does force a good deal of turnovers, they allow their opponents to get too many open looks. This is a team that gave up 92 points to Memphis, 94 points to SMU, 99 points to Louisiana Tech and 112 points to Nevada (in regulation) this season. The Cougs allowed nearly 75 points a game, and it wasn’t like they were playing in a powerhouse conference.

For Maryland, it’s simple. If the Terps play their game, they win. Houston was a team that wouldn’t have been in this tournament if it wasn’t for a hot finish. This is a team that finished under .500 in a lousy conference. For the first time all season, Maryland has the height advantage. The Terrapins don’t only have to own the boards, they have to dominate them. Assuming that Vasquez and Coleman cancel themselves out, Jordan Williams and Milbourne should give Maryland the advantage. Houston likes to run, so does Maryland. Houston likes to use their guards to win, so does Maryland. The Terps and Cougars play similar games, but the Terps do it at a higher level…and Houston doesn’t have anyone like Williams inside. However, I hope the Terps were paying attention to the carnage around the country yesterday. Five double-digit seeds won. Tennessee, Villanova, New Mexico and a host of others were awfully close to losing. Maryland could easily go down if they get cute, allow the other Cougars to contribute by worrying too much about Coleman and if Milbourne disappears again. Look ahead to Michigan State and Kansas at your own risk. I think Maryland’s seniors won’t let them lose here, at least not against a team that doesn’t play defense.

Maryland 82
Houston 71

Meanwhile, I took it on the chin a bit yesterday. I lost a lot of the toss-up games. Since there were so many great and close contests yesterday, it was hard to be upset about it. But the overall record is an ugly 9-7 (with special thanks to UNLV, San Diego State, Texas and Vanderbilt).

EAST REGION

Jacksonville Memorial Arena
Jacksonville, FL
#13 Wofford Terriers (26-8, 15-3 SoCon) vs.
#4 Wisconsin Badgers (23-8, 13-5 Big Ten)
We start out the 2nd day with yet another trendy upset pick (the four seeds seem to be targeted this season). I would agree with that if Wisconsin was the type of team that was aggressive offensively and turned the ball over a healthy amount. Unfortunately for the Terriers, making their first NCAA Tournament appearance, Wisconsin is not one of those teams. Bo Ryan’s squads may be boring to watch. They may play like there’s a lid on the basket. They may remind you of 1950’s basketball. But being a team that’s careless with the basketball isn’t one of their traits.
Pick: Wisconsin 62, Wofford 53

#12 Cornell Big Red (27-4, 13-1 Ivy) vs.
#5 Temple Owls (29-5, 14-2 A-10)
Contrary to all the bitching this week, I don’t think that either of these teams are poorly seeded. The committee screwed up a lot of the seeds, but I have a hard time getting upset about an Ivy League team being given a 12-seed.

Like the matchup above, this is yet another trendy upset special. Heck, if you listen to Jay Bilas long enough, you’d believe that Cornell is destined for the Elite Eight. They aren’t. They aren’t bound for the Sweet 16. They aren’t even bound for Sunday. Let me repeat what I said before. This is an Ivy League team. They aren’t coached by Pete Carril. Ryan Wittman is a nice player. The team as a whole can shoot well. But their interior game isn’t going to scare many teams. At least teams in the NCAA Tournament. Jeff Foote is a good forward for the Ivy League, but he’s a stick figure. The Big Red are also running in to a Temple team that plays some of the best perimeter defense in the nation. In other words, look elsewhere for an upset.
Pick: Temple 55, Cornell 46

In case you didn't know, that's Jeff Foote. Chances are that's the power forward you have playing in the Sweet 16. Sorry it's too late to chance your bracket.

HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY
#15 Morgan State Bears (27-9, 15-1 MEAC) vs.
#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (27-6, 13-5 Big East)
I’ve been on the fence all week about the Queers. I’m still on the fence about them, even though I’ve locked my bracket. This team could easily lose in the next round, since they have very rarely played a full 40-minute game. Everyone looks and sees “Big East Champion” next to their name, but you have to remember that they played the 11th, 7th and 8th seeded teams in that 3-week long tournament (at least that’s how long it feels). They didn’t have to play Pitt, Nova or Syracuse. So it’s not that impressive. And case you missed it, the Big East was 1-3 yesterday, and the one was Villanova winning in overtime against Robert Morris. That doesn’t bode well for an already overrated conference. Ugh, I already regret picking them to go as far as I did.
Pick: West Virginia 68, Morgan State 49

#10 Missouri Tigers (22-10, 10-6 Big XII) vs.
#7 Clemson Tigers (21-10, 9-7 ACC)
One of three ACC-Big XII first round matchups, and one of two that are 7-10 games. I don’t really know what to do with either one. I’ve been leaning toward picking the Big XII schools based on the strength of their conference. But both games present favorable matchups for the ACC teams.

I was impressed with Missouri until about late February. They were non-competitive against Kansas, then dropped their first Big XII Tournament game against awful Nebraska. So they are cold. Their run-and-gun, high-pressure style may actually benefit Clemson. Maryland tried pressing the living daylights out of the Tigers, and it failed miserably. Mizzou’s pressure defense could help Clemson get easy baskets. On the flip side, Clemson’s Tigers are even colder than Missouri’s. The loss to NC State in the ACC Tourney was abysmal. Because of Oliver Purnell, Dino Gaudio and Leonard Hamilton, I have a feeling that the ACC has no real chance doing well in the Big Dance. When in doubt, go with the better coach. Mike Anderson > Purnell. Also when in doubt, and you figure a game will be close, go with the team that hits free throws. Clemson is terrible at the stripe.
Pick: Missouri 75, Clemson 73

SOUTH REGION

#16 Ark.-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (18-15, 14-4 SWAC) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (29-5, 13-3 ACC)
It’s been repeated ad nauseam that the Blue Devils don’t deserve a #1 seed nor do they deserve an easy bracket. I don’t necessarily agree with the #1 seed argument. They had just as good a case as WVU, Ohio State or Kansas State. But the soft bracket, one of the softest I’ve ever seen, is a legitimate argument. This article may shed some light on the situation. It all adds up. The NCAA is in a contract year. UNC, UConn and Arizona are nowhere to be found. Other than Kansas, a Midwest team that won’t draw the ratings, Dook is all CBS and the committee think they have. So Kansas is the #1 overall seed in name only. It’s clear that the committee cleared the road for Dook as much as they could. I’ll go more in to this on Sunday.
Pick: Duke 76, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54

#9 Louisville Cardinals (20-12, 11-7 Big East) vs.
#8 California Golden Bears (23-10, 13-5 Pac-10)
Remember back in November when I said that there were two teams ranked ahead of Maryland that shouldn’t be? Those two teams were Cal and Michigan. While the Wolverines were a complete and utter failure this season, Cal also proved me right despite winning the Pac-10 regular season crown outright. They’ve dealt with some injuries, but they’ve also simply played poorly at times. Their losses to Oregon State and USC came with their entire roster healthy. I’m not sure what the excuse could be for dropping those games. Jerome Randle put up similar numbers to last year. Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson (between injuries) did as well. However, the rest of the team disappeared. Cal gets relatively nothing from their bench. Their rebounding effort is well below average. Every time they step out of conference, there’s a chance that they’ll be bullied off the court.

Louisville sort of got their act together in the last couple week of the regular season. They’ve had a lot of turmoil off the court this year, and managed to overcome it. I hate picking against Rick Pitino in the tournament. I just wish the Cardinals’ strategy this season was something more comprehensive than jacking up 30 three’s a game. Louisville is well rested, so they should be able to hit shots during the first weekend.
Pick: Louisville 74, California 68

Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA
#13 Siena Saints (27-6, 17-1 MAAC) vs.
#4 Purdue Boilermakers (27-5, 14-4 Big Ten)
If you are Saints coach Fran McCaffery, you are both annoyed and thrilled. He’s got to be annoyed with the 13th seed, considering that Siena was a nine seed last year and won a game. This team is easily better than last year’s, yet they are four seeds lower.

However, the #4 seed they are facing might as well be a dead team walking. The Boilers have been in shock since Robbie Hummel tore his ACL. Since that time, Purdue is 3-2, but three of the wins came against Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern. Two of those wins were very close. In their two losses to Michigan and Minnesota, Purdue was never in the game and failed to score 50 points. Instead of rallying around E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, it appears the Boilermakers are going to go the way of Cincinnati the year that Kenyon Martin broke his leg. I don’t really like Siena, I just don’t trust Purdue.
Pick: Siena 64, Purdue 57

#12 Utah State Aggies (27-7, 14-2 WAC) vs.
#5 Texas A&M Aggies (23-9, 11-5 Big XII)
Really, the NCAA committee needs to double-check their work. First of all, you have the Bears-Bearkats (Baylor-Sam Houston St), Tigers-Tigers (Mizzou and Clemson) and Aggies-Aggies in the first round. Second, this is the third straight year that A&M has to open against a team from the Beehive State. After playing the Stormin’ Mormons the last two seasons, the Aggies get Utah State in round one this year. I thought the committee was supposed to stop these kind of things from happening.

Anyway, Texas A&M is the kind of team that should be built to succeed in the tourney. This team looked shaky in the early season, but after Derrick Roland broke his leg in gruesome fashion in late December, they re-invented themselves and got better (are you listening Purdue). The Aggies have a star player and go-to scorer in Donald Sloan. They have three other players that average nearly 10 points per game. There’s balance in both the frontcourt and backcourt. They don’t turn the ball over a lot. They scrap inside. They rebound well. They’ve had to play in the toughest conference in college basketball. Mark Turgeon has coaching experience in this tournament (with Wichita State). It’s all there for this team to succeed. The only thing they don’t do well is shoot free throws, which will probably come back to bite them somewhere.

Utah State is an interesting team that at one point won 17 games in a row. However, they didn’t play the most challenging schedule. BYU (who they beat) and St. Mary’s (who they did not) were basically their toughest out-of-conference games. They lost twice to New Mexico State, who beat them in the WAC Finals. While they are statistically better than their Aggie counterparts, the stats are somewhat hollow. Tai Wesley and Nate Bendall are pretty good forwards. They have enough muscle inside to give Turgeon and company trouble. I just don’t see them beating a team that’s as tested as A&M.
Pick: Texas A&M 70, Utah State 62

MIDWEST REGION

Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA
#12 New Mexico State Aggies (22-11, 11-5 WAC) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (24-8, 14-4 Big Ten)
This tournament just keeps getting more Aggie-rific. How ‘bout some kudos to the Land of Enchantment. The state of New Mexico somehow managed to get their only two Division 1 programs into the big dance. Well done.

The Aggies get themselves a beatable five seed. We’ll HOPEFULLY have a chance to talk a lot more about the Spartans on Sunday (unless NMSU pulls off an upset), but the end of the year didn’t go very well for Michigan State. Chris Allen was suspended. Delvon Roe has been dealing with a potentially severe knee injury. The frontcourt, which has long been a Tom Izzo strength, faded a little bit the last month of the season. The Spartans have struggled with consistency since early February. They lost three in a row at one point. They barely scratched across two wins against Penn State. They got bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. So it hasn’t been a great ending.

Still, it’s important to remember that this team is still coached by Izzo and led by Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan. This was a team that was ranked #2 in the AP preseason poll. This is a team that returns all but one player from their squad last season…a team that lost in the National Championship game. If anyone can turn this team around in the NCAA Tournament, it’s Izzo. The Aggies will have a chance if they get MSU into a track meet. Five players scored more than 10 ppg during the season. That includes Jahmar Young who averaged 20.5. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Aggies out-gunned Sparty, but I know better than to bet against Izzo.
Pick: Michigan State 74, New Mexico State 67

Bradley Center
Milwaukee, WI
#15 UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (20-9, 12-4 Big West) vs.
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (27-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
This past September, I stopped by UCSB on a great road trip from San Diego to San Francisco. The school is actually located in Goleta, not Santa Barbara. The campus is located between low-lying mountains and the Pacific Ocean. The architecture around the school is beautiful and fits in perfectly with the scenery. However, I was disappointed by the heavily advertised lagoon. Between the main part of campus and the Pacific proper, the ocean forms a lagoon on campus property. I imagined clear bluish-green water with tons of coeds around. Instead, it was basically a pond with algae all over it. Because of the shoddy state of the lagoon, and also because of Evan Turner, I’m going with the Buckeyes in this one.
Pick: Ohio State 73, UCSB 51

UCSB campus and lagoon. It didn't look that nice when I was there

#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (22-12, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-10, 9-7 Big XII)
I know that the Cowboys have a great backcourt. James Anderson is one of the better combo guards in the entire country. For Tech, as we know by now, their backcourt only shows up against Maryland. Most of the time, their guards have trouble simply inbounding the ball.

I’m going with the Jackets for two reasons. The first is the intimidating frontline of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal (even Zach Peacock has played well recently). Ok State is very small inside. The second is the way both teams finished the season. The Boys floundered at the end of the Big XII season, while the Jackets made it to the NCAA Tournament. True, the Jackets beat UNC, an uninterested Maryland team and NC State, but at least they got that winning feeling.
Pick: Georgia Tech 69, Oklahoma State 63

WEST REGION

HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY
#16 Vermont Catamounts (25-9, 12-4 America East) vs.
#1 Syracuse Orange (28-4, 15-3 Big East)
If any 16 seed is ever going to win in this tournament, this is the one. Syracuse will probably be without Arinze Onuaku, which means they’ll play six guys. The best athlete on the floor isn’t going to be wearing an Orange uniform, but will actually be Vermont’s Marqus Blakely. The loss of Onuaku will only make Blakely more effective inside. The Syracuse 2-3 zone is great, unless a team has a good shooting night. And the Catamounts can definitely shoot (45% as a team). Plus, these two teams have a history. If you need another reason, Gus Johnson will be calling the games in Buffalo. If a #1 seed loses in the first round, I think it will be a requirement that Johnson be there. Even though it’s going to take a big undertaking from Vermont to win this game, I wouldn’t be stunned if the Orange find themselves in trouble…or even lose this game.
Pick: Syracuse 78, Vermont 61

#9 Florida State Seminoles (22-9, 10-6 ACC) vs.
#8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-6, 12-2 WCC)
We know all about FSU. This is a defense first team that has the potential to win any game they play because they’ll scrap, make it low-scoring and ugly. That said, the Noles have problems getting consistent scoring from anybody, their offense is too stagnant to do damage in the NCAA Tournament and their coach is Leonard Hamilton. That’s a lot of problems for a team to overcome to make a deep run.

Mark Few’s bunch is the least talented in recent memory, but it’s probably one of the best coaching jobs that Few has done. Remember, this is a Gonzaga team that lost three superstars, and Matt Bouldin was the only player to return that contributed significantly to last year’s squad. Few’s coaching job is reminiscent of Gary Williams’ coaching effort last season. However, there just isn’t enough talent on this team for a deep run. While both teams could present big trouble for Syracuse in the 2nd round, it’s impossible to know when either team will come out and lay an egg. I’ll go with the proven coach for the W in this game.
Pick: Gonzaga 71, Florida State 66

Bradley Center
Milwaukee, WI
#14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies (26-8, 17-1 Summit) vs.
#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (24-8, 13-5 Big East)
Didn’t the Steelers already lose to the Raiders this season? I don’t like Pittsburgh’s chances with Ben Roethlisberger potentially looking at jail time. No seriously folks, this probably won’t be much of a game. Despite Jamie Dixon’s looooooong history of losing with higher seeded teams in this tournament, even he won’t screw things up here. Oakland played very few teams of significance. Every time the Grizzlies did, they were blown out. This won’t be any different.
Pick: Pittsburgh 73, Oakland 54

#11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (21-13, 9-9 Big Ten) vs.
#6 Xavier Musketeers (24-8, 14-2 A-10)
First of all, Tubby Smith earns credit for policing his team this season. He had players in trouble off the court and in trouble academically…and they all got the boot. For a team on the bubble fringe all season, and a team that had a good deal of expectations, that’s not an easy decision to make. So good on Tubby, who I still feel got a raw deal at Kentucky.

The Gophers have a lot of nice pieces, but it really hasn’t added up for Minnesota all season. They score over 70 points a game. They are an above average rebounding team. Minnesota has a 1.3/1 turnover/assist ratio. They shoot well from everywhere (47% fg, 70% ft, 40% 3-pt). They play good defense…certainly enough to hang in the defense-obsessed Big Ten. So why inconsistent? It just seems that the Gophers can’t get everyone on the same page at the same time. They’ve been inconsistent all season long, and that probably won’t change in the tournament.

Xavier is a proven commodity. Jordan Crawford is one heck of a player. Chris Mack is just the next in the long line of coaches to have success at the small private school. The Musketeers always seem to overachieve this time of year. I don’t expect this year to be any different. As you see, I have them in the Sweet 16, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they go even further. I think the Gophers are going to run into trouble outside of their low-scoring conference.
Pick: Xavier 74, Minnesota 66

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 1

2010-03-18T11:16:00.006-04:00

Ready for the tournament? The locked bracket is first, so you can come back after the weekend and enjoy a good laugh. Following that are all 16 games for Thursday, check back tomorrow for Friday.

East Region
1st Round Winners: Kentucky, Texas, Temple, Wisconsin, Washington, New Mexico, Missouri, West Virginia
2nd Round Winners: Kentucky, Wisconsin, New Mexico, West Virginia
Sweet 16 Winners: Kentucky, West Virginia
Regional Winner: Kentucky

South Region
1st Round Winners: Duke, Louisville, Texas A&M, Siena, Notre Dame, Baylor, St. Mary’s, Villanova
2nd Round Winners: Louisville, Texas A&M, Baylor, Villanova
Sweet 16 Winners: Texas A&M, Villanova
Regional Winner: Villanova

Midwest Region
1st Round Winners: Kansas, UNLV, Michigan State, Maryland, San Diego State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Ohio State
2nd Round Winners: Kansas, Maryland, Georgetown, Ohio State
Sweet 16 Winners: Kansas, Ohio State
Regional Winner: Kansas

West Region
1st Round Winners: Syracuse, Gonzaga, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas State
2nd Round Winners: Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Kansas State
Sweet 16 Winners: Syracuse, Kansas State
Regional Winner: Kansas State

Final Four: Kansas over Kansas State, Kentucky over Villanova
Final Game: Kansas 72, Kentucky 68

EAST REGION

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#16 East Tennessee State Buccaneers (20-14, 13-7 A-Sun) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (32-2, 14-2 SEC)
Poor Bucs. They were a 16th seed last year against overrated Pitt. Even though they were game for awhile last season, this a much tougher task for ETSU. Let’s not waste any more time on 16 seeds, ok?
Pick: Kentucky 80, East Tennessee State 57

Sure he can get you to the Final Four. But how long will your school be able to celebrate it before vacating?

#9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-10, 9-7 ACC) vs.
#8 Texas Longhorns (24-9, 9-7 Big XII)
In the battle of which coach can choke away more talent, Rick Barnes is far exceeding Dino Gaudio. However, the Deacs were so bad down the stretch of the regular season, I convinced myself I wouldn’t pick them no matter where they ended up. Since Dexter Pittman can handle Al-Farouq Aminu inside, I have no problems moving the Longhorns along. Regardless of the outcome, this is going to be one apathetic basketball game. If neither team showed up, it wouldn’t surprise me.
Pick: Texas 76, Wake Forest 65

HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA
#14 Montana Grizzlies (22-9, 10-6 Big Sky) vs.
#3 New Mexico Lobos (29-4, 14-2 Mountain West)
The Grizzlies were one of the surprise conference winners, coming from the fourth spot in the Big Sky to upset Weber State. This squad is not nearly as talented as the one that went up again Nevada a couple of years ago as a 12-seed and won. Still, they can’t be ignored. Anthony Johnson scored 42 points in the Big Sky championship game. I actually watched the entire second half when Johnson scored 34 of his 42. Even though Weber State refused to double-team him, his performance was very impressive. If he had done it in a major conference, that’s all anyone would have been talking about last week. Last note on the Grizzlies: the head coach is named Wayne Tinkle. Just throwing that out there.

Unfortunately for Montana, they run into my favorite mid-major of the year. Everything about New Mexico screams power conference team…from their coach (former Indiana star and Iowa coach Steve Alford), to their roster (two players turned down scholarships from premier Big XII schools) to their schedule (eight wins over other tournament teams). The only thing that holds them back is the fact they’re in the Mountain West and not the Big XII. The real scary thing is that they only have one senior on the team. This may just be the first of many tournament runs for the Lobos.
Pick: New Mexico 77, Montana 62

Won't be long before you know who Darington Hobson is.

***PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#11 Washington Huskies (24-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs.
#6 Marquette Golden Eagles (22-11, 11-7 Big East)
Washington sure made things interesting this season. The Huskies were supposed to cruise into the NCAA Tournament, but needed to win the Pac-10 tourney just to seal an invite. But, to disregard UW because of the rough time they had in the lousy Pac-10 would be a mistake. Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are a dangerous 1-2 combination. Washington has several guys who can eat up the glass. The Huskies get in trouble when the other team is able to shut down either Pondexter or Thomas, since no one else seems to fill the scoring void.

Marquette is probably a couple of spots too high (the Big East teams continue to get gift seeding…have we learned nothing from last year’s three #1 seed but no finalists fiasco). The Eagles haven’t done a whole lot in the tournament since Dwayne Wade left school. Of the eight Big East teams in the field, Marquette should be the least scary to the opposition. However, the Eagles have a penchant for playing very close games (18 games decided by one possession). So this should be a good one. I like the Huskies here. It’s a shorter trip to San Jose for them and they haven’t lost a game since February 18th. Here’s the first official upset.
Pick: Washington 71, Marquette 69

SOUTH REGION

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#14 Sam Houston State Bearkats (25-7, 14-2 Southland) vs.
#3 Baylor Bears (25-7, 11-5 Big XII)
The South Region is an absolute joke ladies and gentlemen. The committee tried their best to hand the Dookies a cakewalk to Indianapolis. And other than a sneaky tough game against Louisville in the 2nd round, it should be smooth sailing for Ratface, even though he’s done less with more over the last five seasons. More on that tomorrow.

The NCAA matches the Bears and Bearkats (yes, that spelling is correct) in an all-Texas battle for ursine supremacy. Baylor has floated beneath the radar all year because they play in the shadow of Kansas, Kansas State and Texas. However, the Bears have proven that they are truly the 3rd best team from college basketball’s best conference. Anyone one of these mid-level Big XII teams (Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M and OK State) could cause some real headaches for high seeds. It would not surprise me at all if Baylor navigated their way to the Final Four. I see no way for Sam Houston State to slow down Ekpe Udoh inside or stop the slasher LaceDarius Dunn from getting to the hoop. You just don’t see players like that in the Southland Conference. This is a Bearkats team that’s already lost games this season to Western Michigan and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Pick: Baylor 82, Sam Houston State 63

#11 Old Dominion Monarchs (26-8, 15-3 CAA) vs.
#6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (23-11, 10-8 Big East)
The Irish are the other Big East team that is at least two seeds too high. Remember, Notre Dame was out of the tournament just a couple of weeks ago. I know they had some decent wins since the calendar turned to March, but not enough to warrant jumping about 20 other teams for seeding.

I have been impressed with the complete makeover that Ratface disciple Mike Brey has done with the Irish. When Luke Harangody was injured a few weeks ago, Brey’s team went from jacking up every shot they could take to playing Big Ten-style basketball. It worked so well, that Brey didn’t change a thing when Harangody returned to action. The results have been promising. Before Harangody’s injury, the Irish somehow lost seven games when scoring 70 or more points. Since the strategy change to a defense-first/take the air out of the ball mentality, the Irish have only scored 70+ points once in seven games, but they are 6-1. So great job with mid-season adjustments by Brey and his turtleneck…something he certainly didn’t learn during his time in Durham.

ODU is your typical scrappy CAA team. The Colonial has produced several upsets in recent seasons: namely the VCU Maynors win over Duke in ’07 and the ultimate Cinderella with George Mason in ‘05. Despite a desire to pick Blaine Taylor and his awesome mustache, I don’t see the Monarchs carrying the same type of mojo. Their best player isn’t an Eric Maynor or Lamar Butler-type combo guard. It’s hulking 6’10” Finnish forward Gerald Lee. Lee is a fine talent for the CAA, but way to slow and slender to compete with the big boys. Their only marquee win was against Georgetown, which was way back in mid-December when the Hoyas weren’t letting Greg Monroe touch the ball. I also don’t see ODU being patient enough to hang with new-Notre Dame for 35 seconds on every possession
Pick: Notre Dame 58, Old Dominion 47

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI
#15 Robert Morris Colonials (23-11, 15-3 NEC) vs.
#2 Villanova Wildcats (24-7, 13-5 Big East)
For my money, the Wildcats should be the favorite in this region. They have the horses on the perimeter to run with the Dookies, and they can out-shoot anyone else in this region (although Baylor could give them trouble inside). However, they need to wake up out of this Texas-like nose-dive they’ve taken the last couple of weeks.
Pick: Villanova 83, Robert Morris 58

#10 St. Mary’s Gaels (26-5, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#7 Richmond Spiders (26-8, 13-3 A-10)
Really, these seeds should be reversed. I haven’t been impressed with Richmond all season. Sure they deserve to make the tournament. But they went 26-8 while playing in the A-10. I don’t care how good the conference was perceived to be. That kind of record from a mid-major does not scream white jersey seeding for the first round. Yes Richmond beat Missouri, but they also lost South Carolina and VCU. They have two players of note with Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez. Other than that, there isn’t much to look at. They are above average shooters, but still struggle to score 70 points a game. The Spiders struggle on both sides of the glass. Their bench only provides about eight points a game. I’ve seen them play a handful times, and other than Gonzalvez’s shooting ability, nothing jumps off the screen.

On the other hand, St. Mary’s punched their ticket this season (after being left out last year with Patty Mills). On paper, and in person, they are a better team than Richmond. However, most of their games are played after the committee members go to bed. Their only bad loss is to USC. Other than that, they’ve lost twice to Gonzaga (a team they then beat by 19 in the WCC final) and once to Vandy. All five of the Gaels starters average more than ten points a game. Omar Samhan and Ben Allen should eat up the smaller Spider frontcourt. I doubt Richmond’s defense will be able to keep the Gaels under 70, and that should be enough for St. Mary’s. The only thing that concerns me is the cross-country trip.
Pick: St. Mary’s 74, Richmond 67

MIDWEST REGION

Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK
#16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks (22-10, 10-4 Patriot) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-2, 15-1 Big XII)
So Bill Self…how do you like this draw? A potentially pesky UNLV club in the 2nd round. The Maryland/Michigan State winner in the 3rd. Any one of the Ohio State/Georgetown/Tennessee trifecta in the regional finals. And that’s just to get to the Final Four. All this for a team that was the so-called #1 overall seed, a team that lost only twice (on the road to teams in the tournament), won their conference (the best conference in the nation) easily and won their tournament easily. And this is their reward? Who needs enemies with friends like that?
Pick: Kansas 86, Lehigh 53

#9 Northern Iowa Panthers (28-4, 15-3 MVC) vs.
#8 UNLV Rebels (25-8, 11-5 Mountain West)
Glad to see UNI slotted this low. I was sure that they’d grab a six or seven seed. The Panthers did a great job trying to manufacture the RPI so they would get that higher seed, but the committee didn’t bite. They played their Iowa brethren, scheduled BC, DePaul, Siena and Wyoming. Never mind that other Siena, all those teams were terrible this season. Look at us! We’re playing real schools!

UNI has some talent. They have a sniper in Ali Farokhmanesh from beyond the arc. They supposedly have a NBA-caliber player in Jordan Eglseder. I’ve seen him play, and while there’s no doubt that Egleseder is a solid college athlete, I really doubt he could find a home at the next level. However, this team is very similar to Richmond. They have some talent, but they still don’t score a lot (63.3 ppg) and their rebounding is subpar. Other than Eglseder, it’s hard to find someone else who hits the glass with regularity. And while they only turn the ball over 10.5 times a game, they only average 10.7 assists. So this is a team that’s going to dribble around for 25-30 seconds and jack up the first open look they get. The Panthers are going to try to wear you down and hope you aren’t as patient as they are.

The Rebels have too much talent for that. Lon Kruger continues to do a fabulous job in Vegas. Three years ago UNLV made the Sweet 16. Two years ago they won their first round game. Last year they were jobbed of a tournament bid…but had they been invited, I have no doubt they would have made the 2nd round. Even though Tre’Von Willis is responsible for 17.3 ppg, there are plenty of other players who chip in anywhere from six to ten points a game. UNLV is also adaptable. They can win high-scoring games or they can win slugfests. They’ve been successful at both in the wild Mountain West. Given the Rebels’ ability to play at their opponents pace and win, and given their recent track record in the NCAA’s and the Missouri Valley’s recent struggles, this looks like a no-brainer.
Pick: UNLV 69, Northern Iowa 61

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI
#14 Ohio Bobcats (21-14, 7-9 MAC) vs.
#3 Georgetown Hoyas (23-10, 10-8 Big East)
This game – and tournament in general – is easy for the Hoyas. All they have to do is get the ball to Greg Monroe and they’ll have a chance to beat anyone. If they fool around with mid-range jumpers and let guys like Shane Clark take more shots than Monroe, they could lose to any team. Ohio is a great story, coming out of ninth place in the cannibalistic MAC, and was the lowest seed to win any of the conference tournaments. They can score a lot and their team shooting percentage is pretty good (over 42%). But this team is tiny. They only have one guy over 6’7” that plays serious minutes. Georgetown should be able to push these guys around, but only if Little Racist III gets his head of his butt.
Pick: Georgetown 70, Ohio 53

#11 San Diego State Aztecs (25-8, 11-5 Mountain West) vs.
#6 Tennessee Volunteers (25-8, 11-5 SEC)
Tennessee has got to be wondering what it did wrong. Not only were the Vols given a sixth seed (probably a spot or two too low), but they were placed in the Group of Death. Tough break for a team that knocked off both Kansas and Kentucky.

It gets even worse for Tennessee with this matchup. The Aztecs are one of the hottest teams in this tournament. Needing to at least get to the finals of the MWC tournament, SDSU beat New Mexico and UNLV and won the whole thing. What makes this matchup really difficult for Tennessee is the Aztec consistency. The Volunteers are a very streaky team. They either hit outside shots and win, or miss outside shots and lose handedly. San Diego State uses their dominant frontcourt for consistent points. Malcolm Thomas is a great all-around player. He can score, rebound and block shots with the best of them. And while Kawhi Leonard isn’t quiet the defender that Thomas is, he’s actually a better offensive threat. These two are the reason that the Aztecs have been steady throughout the season.

Because Thomas and Leonard are 6’7” and 6’8” respectively, a bigger frontcourt can push these guys around. However, Tennessee doesn’t possess that. They do most of their scoring from outside, and they aren’t great rebounders. This is one of the better finesse teams in college basketball. SDSU has been a popular upset pick all week, and I usually shy away from the popular pick (especially if it’s an upset). However, I don’t trust Bruce Pearl and his techno-color dream coat. The Vols are reliant on their outside shots to fall…and that’s not a guaranteed proposition. The Aztecs fought their way through a very tough conference and get their offense more consistently.
Pick: San Diego State 72, Tennessee 66

Gotta like SDSU's frontcourt talent

WEST REGION

HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA
#13 Murray State Racers (30-4, 17-1 OVC) vs.
#4 Vanderbilt Commodores (24-8, 12-4 SEC)
Depending on who you ask, the Commodores could either make it to the Elite 8 or lose in the first round. I have a feeling that their run will end somewhere in between. As much as I love Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt has struggled in recent tournaments, and despite overachieving at a school with almost impossible academic requirements (and playing in a conference that barely requires the athletes to show up to class), Stallings hasn’t given anyone a reason to take Vanderbilt seriously in the NCAA Tournament. A team with A.J. Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal should be dangerous, but losses this season to South Carolina, Georgia and Western Kentucky suggest otherwise.

On the other hand, Murray State has become a trendy upset pick. The Racers can score (77 ppg). They take their school nickname literally and get up and down the floor better than many teams in this tournament. However, it’s hard for me to get excited about their 30-4 record. Look at their schedule and try to name me their best win. Heck, look at their schedule and try to figure out where half of the schools on there are located. Murray State’s four losses came to Cal, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky and Morehead (resisting opportunity for cheap joke) State. They barely squeaked out a couple of wins in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Their other wins are against terrible teams. I do like their balance (five players average between 10.3 and 10.6 ppg) and the fact they are nine-deep. But they are awfully small, play little defense and their schedule suggests the fact that they can’t beat anyone decent outside of the OVC.
Pick: Vanderbilt 80, Murray State 75

#12 UTEP Miners (26-6, 15-1 CUSA) vs.
#5 Butler Bulldogs (28-4, 18-0 Horizon)
This isn’t your typical Bulldogs team. Butler finally went outside of the Horizon League this season and challenged themselves. They played Clemson, Georgetown, Ohio State, Xavier, Minnesota and UAB…and actually won a couple of those games. They haven’t lost since December 22nd. They score a lot more than those old-fashion Butler teams from last decade. The Bulldogs average 70 ppg, which is leaps and bounds over what they used to average. Butler is actually a team that’s worth watching now…which wasn’t the case a couple of years ago.

I’ve tried to figure out a way to take the Miners, and I can’t come up with a good one. I guess I need to take a 12th seed somewhere. I don’t think there’s any way Michigan State or Texas A&M are losing. Cornell over Temple is trendy, but I learned a long time ago to avoid picking Ivy League schools that aren’t named Princeton. So this appears to be the game. It’s not as if the Miners are bad. Randy Culpepper and Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter are outstanding players. UTEP is an athletic teams that runs and could be exactly the type of team that Butler doesn’t want to face. Whatever, I guess I talked myself into an upset.
Pick: UTEP 67, Butler 64

Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK
#15 North Texas Mean Green (24-8, 13-5 Sun Belt) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (26-7, 11-5 Big XII)
The Sun Belt usually offers us a Western Kentucky or a South Alabama. This year the league was mediocre at best and UNT won the conference through attrition. That’s not a good sign for the Mean Green, since they are facing a team I think is capable of getting the Final Four. We’ll talk more about KSU later in the week.
Pick: Kansas State 81, North Texas 58

#10 Florida Gators (21-12, 9-7 SEC) vs.
#7 BYU Cougars (29-5, 13-3 Mountain West)
Florida was the only team that got a bid that I didn’t predict or agree with. Virginia Tech not getting in was fine. Illinois missing the tournament was even better. However, I don’t see the logic in taking the Gators over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were a tenth of a second away from winning their conference tournament, and would have if the referees had correctly called a lane violation on John Wall. MSU had a better record than Florida and both played similarly strong schedules. Then you take in to account that Florida won two games on buzzer beaters and that their record could easily be 19-14, and all signs point to Mississippi State getting a bid over the Gators.

Nonetheless, it will be a short stay for Florida. BYU really should be seeded 5th. The Gators have no intentions on playing perimeter defense, which is a problem against Jimmer Fredette. The Mountain West was probably stronger than the SEC as a whole this season…so the Cougars are more prepared for this tournament. All signs point to the Stormin’ Mormons moving on.
Pick: BYU 76, Florida 67

The Predictor Tournament Bids & Brackets: 3/14/10

2010-03-14T15:57:00.003-04:00

So here we go. Last bracket projection of the season. Washington, Houston and New Mexico State starting squeezing the bubble yesterday. It was nice to see teams playing their way in instead of waiting for other teams to play their way out. UTEP is a lock. Utah State should be a little nervous. As I said all season, there was no way the A-10 was going to get more than four teams. It looks as if they’ll only get three (I'd also been saying for months that the Pac-10 would get two teams in). Illinois is likely out as well…which is not a problem for me because the Illini play boring Big Ten style basketball. We don't need to be subjected to another weekend of that. Virginia Tech would be my first teams out of the pool. That would be fantastic if the Hokies missed The Dance. There’s a great chance that Seth Greenberg’s head would actually explode. That's what happens when you play one of the easiest schedules in history. Anyway, the Big Ten tournament is still going on. Minnesota should be in either way. Every other conference winner is in bold. Syracuse can’t be in the East Region. Houston can’t be in the South Region. Marquette can’t play in Milwaukee. BYU has to play in one of the Thursday/Saturday regions (hopefully the NCAA doesn’t forget this time). Unlike Joe Lunardi, I'm not going to sneak on here 30 minutes before the selection show after receiving leaked information...then pretending like I got 33 of the 34 at-large teams correctly. What you see is what you get.

POWER
ACC (6): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest
Big East (8): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (7): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (2): California, Washington
SEC (4): Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (3): Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Houston, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Ohio
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: North Texas
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
WAC (2): New Mexico State, Utah State

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: UC-Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Summit: Oakland

EAST REGION (Syracuse)
New Orleans
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Lehigh/Arkansas-Pine Bluff
(8) Florida State vs. (9) Notre Dame
San Jose
(4) BYU vs. (13) Houston
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Cornell
New Orleans
(6) Xavier vs. (11) Wake Forest
(3) Baylor vs. (14) Sam Houston State
Buffalo
(7) Northern Iowa vs. (10) St. Mary’s
(2) West Virginia vs. (15) Morgan State

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) Robert Morris
(8) California vs. (9) Missouri
Spokane
(4) Temple vs. (13) New Mexico State
(5) Maryland vs. (12) Mississippi State
Providence
(6) Butler vs. (11) Siena
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Wofford
Milwaukee
(7) Texas vs. (10) San Diego State
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) North Texas

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Oklahoma City
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Winthrop
(8) Richmond vs. (9) Clemson
Jacksonville
(4) Tennessee vs. (13) Murray State
(5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) Minnesota
Milwaukee
(6) Texas A&M vs. (11) Old Dominion
(3) Purdue vs. (14) Ohio
Providence
(7) UNLV vs. (10) Georgia Tech
(2) Villanova vs. (15) Vermont

WEST REGION (Salt Lake City)
Jacksonville
(1) Duke vs. (16) East Tennessee State
(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Louisville
Spokane
(4) Michigan State vs. (13) Oakland
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Utah State
San Jose
(6) Gonzaga vs. (11) Washington
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Montana
Oklahoma City
(7) Marquette vs. (10) UTEP
(2) Kansas State vs. (15) UC-Santa Barbara

2010 ACC Tournament

2010-03-14T12:12:00.000-04:00

ACC TOURNAMENT – FINALS

#7 Georgia Tech vs. #1 Duke
I’m glad that the Dookies will have to play someone; although I guess they weren’t a strong enough team to get rid of Miami easily. I half-joked that the Canes would probably stay in it for 20 minutes. I actually shorted The U by about 20 minutes. Make no mistake about it, Miami could have won that game.

Georgia Tech looks like they are finally serious about getting the ball inside. They did it in the 2nd half against UNC, the entire game against Maryland and most of the game against NC State. If they continue to do so, they can not only win this game, but get to at least the second weekend of the real tournament. I said it in November, and I’ve been saying it all winter: very few teams have a frontcourt as talented as Favors-Lawal-Peacock. Not just in the ACC, but on a national level. Paul Hewitt and the awful backcourt just have to get out of their own way. Let the forwards carry this team.

Making this quick since I want to do a final bracket projection (first time in a long time that I’ve had a Sunday off…and it just happens to be Selection Sunday). Most of my time today will be spent doing that. These two teams split the regular season series, and like the Hurricanes, the Jackets are the type of team that can give Dook fits. However, in order for Tech to come out top, they’re going to have to hit some of their outside shots. I don’t think they have the legs to do it. It will be an ugly, grinding game that’s not for the basketball purist.
Pick: Duke 66, Georgia Tech 61

ACC TOURNAMENT – SEMIFINALS
Originally posted at 12:57 pm on 3/13/10

#12 Miami vs. #1 Duke
Well…Duke’s road to the championship will pretty much be the easiest in recent memory. Only a game against NC State in the finals would make it easier for them. The officials helped them yesterday, giving the Dookies timeouts when they didn’t have possession, letting Jerome Meyinsse get hacked all day and calling fouls whenever Virginia had a chance to go in transition.

Miami is the kind of team that can give the Devils fits. They have no problems playing slow, grinding, low-scoring games. They led by 12 at halftime the last time the two played. I think they’ll keep it close for at least another 20 minutes today.
Pick: Duke 67, Miami 58

#11 NC State vs. #7 Georgia Tech
Some thoughts from yesterday’s game. Maryland clearly didn’t want to be on the court for the first half. As I continue to say, this tournament means nothing to teams from outside Carolina or teams that have nothing to play for. Maryland is solidly in the tournament (while Georgia Tech still had some doubts) and obviously the Terps don’t reside in NC. Therefore, this game and this tournament carried no weight. Maryland played about as poorly as they could in the first half (29% from the field, missed all their 3’s and were out-rebounded by nine), played an average second half and almost won the game anyway. Greivis Vasquez had a real off night. Jordan Williams was in foul trouble all evening. Sean Mosley didn’t score at all. The bench didn’t help at all. The matchup inside clearly favored Tech. So a lot of things went wrong, and despite all of it, Maryland had several chances to win the game. Two important things happened. Landon Milbourne finally showed up. He had a terrific game. Secondly, Maryland made it through with no injuries. I was upset for about ten minutes and then moved on. Not a big deal. Probably means a six seed instead of a four/five (which could be a blessing in disguise). The real tournament starts next week. Let’s get ready for it.

As for this game, you know the ACC is dreaming of a NC State-Duke All-Carolina final. The Wolfpack will get calls that they normally don’t. If the Jackets use the same game plan they did against Maryland (pound it inside), they’ll win. If they get cute, and let the refs decide this game, they’ll lose.
Pick: Georgia Tech 70, NC State 63

ACC TOURNAMENT - QUARTERFINALS
Originally posted at 12:17 pm on 3/12/10

(#7) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (20-11, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#19/19 (#2) Maryland Terrapins (23-7, 13-3 ACC)
Greensboro Coliseum – Greensboro, NC
ACC Tournament – Quarterfinals

So how did everyone enjoy the Virginia game? Smelled like a trap game the whole way. I knew Maryland was in trouble when they couldn’t go up by more than 12 or so in the first half. Sure enough, the Terps fell asleep in the second half and the Cavaliers almost rallied. However, Maryland wins their fair share of the real ACC championship thanks to Tony Bennett’s perfectly timed jacket throwing and clutch free throws. Bennett, by the way, has proven that he can’t handle coaching in this conference. This all defense, no offense approach may work in the Big Ten or Pac-10…but not here. I understand he needed to suspend Sylven Landesberg. I know UVA takes their academics ultra-seriously. But does Bennett really want us to believe that he just found out about Landesberg’s troubles? Midway through the year’s second semester? Only after the Cavaliers went on a nine-game losing streak to eliminate any chance they had of playing in the postseason? I don’t buy it. Bennett knew about this well before he suspended Landesberg. So add classless to incompetent for Mr. Bennett. I’m willing to put cash money on the fact that when this webpage celebrates its 10-year anniversary, Bennett will be serenading in a different conference.

So while the game wasn’t the prettiest thing to watch, the week following it was enjoyable. Greivis Vasquez was named ACC Player of the Year and Gary Williams was named ACC Coach of the Year. Both were well deserved. Coach of the Year isn’t really the big deal it’s made out to be. It’s basically given to the coach who exceeds expectations, not necessarily the best coach (which is why Seth Greensberg has already won it twice). However, this season was the exception. There’s no reasonable doubt in anyone minds that Gary did the best coaching job in the conference. He was deserving of the award last year as well, even if the Terps record didn’t look as good as it does now.

Vasquez winning POY is a big deal. Rarely does a Maryland player, or a player outside the Research Triangle win this award. Add in the fact that the only foreign-born player to win it (or even come close to winning it) was Tim Duncan…and he was from the U.S. Virgin Islands. So the combination of foreigner playing outside the state of North Carolina meant Vasquez had a real uphill road to climb. Not only did he win, he won handedly. He scored 39 of the 53 votes. The Screamer locked down the electoral votes from North Carolina (12) and two writers got drunk and voted for Malcolm Delaney on a dare. If Vasquez was an African-American from Richmond, he probably would have come awful close to a unanimous decision. I don’t think a reasonable fan can argue his stats (he’s the only player in the COUNTRY averaging 18 points and six assists a game) or his importance to Maryland. The only thing the Screamer leads in is flopping on three-point attempts. The whining and moaning from Durham has been unbelievable. They think it’s some vast conspiracy by the Tar Heel bloc of the media vote to deny a Dook player the award since there was no UNC player worth voting for. I highly doubt it. Vasquez had more obstacles to overcome to win this award. He is unquestionably the best player in the conference this year. It’s not even worth discussing the continuing debate. His numbers speak for themselves.

I was a little disappointed that Sean Mosley didn’t make the ACC defensive team. He’s a terrific on and off ball defender, and the only player to give him trouble all season was Delaney. He shut down Dook’s White Stiff. He shut down Demontez Stitt. He (and Cliff Tucker) stopped Landesberg in the first meeting. He could have easily made the team over either L.D. Williams or Lance Thomas, who is never on the court due to foul trouble. I also would have liked to see Eric Hayes on the 3rd-team All-ACC. Joe Trapani didn’t really do a whole lot to earn that honor. It would have also been nice to see Jordan Williams be a little closer to Derrick Favors for Rookie of the Year. We all knew Favors was going to win. But Williams progressed nicely throughout the season and played as well, if not better, than Favors did during the ACC schedule. However, it can be argued that Favors had to overcome playing for Paul Hewitt while Williams benefited from playing for Gary (and it seems as if Georgia Tech is starting to understand their problems). Regardless, it will be real nice to have JW for the next three seasons while Favors is in the NBA.

Speaking of Favors, here comes Georgia Tech. I was hoping that Maryland wouldn’t have to play these guys again after the miracle win in College Park. The Jackets spent all season not getting the ball inside to their strength, then spent all afternoon at Comcast Center doing just that, followed by several more games of ignoring their post players. In other words, Tech woke up in time to play Maryland, then went back to sleep. Last night’s game against UNC was another example of it. The Yellow Jackets spent about 35 minutes jacking up mid-range to long-range shots. The other five minutes were spent getting the ball to Favors and Gani Lawal. Needless to say, those were the five minutes that Tech used to pull ahead of the Tar Heels for good. The two big men shot a combined 12-16 from the floor, had 30 points and 13 rebounds. The rest of the team shot 12-40 and scored 32 points. Again, it makes you wonder where Tech would be if their coach made them get the ball inside all season long.

Maryland is the only team that is facing the highest possible seed today. The Terps essentially were punished for finishing tied for 1st. Had they finished 3rd, they would have played lousy NC State. A 4th place finish would have let Maryland play Miami. Instead, they have to play Tech and are the only one of the top four seeds to play another NCAA Tournament team in the first round. I know re-seeding is out of the question (it wouldn’t be fair if NC State played at 9:30 one night then had to turn around and play at noon the next day), but there needs to be some sort of protection for the top seeds. Maybe the tournament should re-seed the top half and the bottom half of the brackets. So Maryland would play NC State, Tech would play FSU in the bottom half. In the top half, Duke would play Miami and Virginia Tech would play Virginia. That makes a lot more sense than Maryland getting hosed by finishing tied for first, but having the bad luck of facing the only better seed that managed not to lose in the first round.

As for the tournament, here’s what I want. First, no injuries. Second, make sure Landon Milbourne gets back into some sort of rhythm. If it’s at the expense of the team, then so be it. Third, keep Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker confident. Again, even if it hurts the team in the ACC Tournament, it will be worth it come next week. Fourth, no injuries. Fifth, maybe grab one win if it’s not too much trouble. Finally, no injuries. The ACC Tournament is not important to Maryland. We’ve got our share of the real ACC Championship. The Terps are obviously locks for the NCAA Tournament. If they win the whole thing, great! If they don’t, but stay healthy, also great! Tech has a little more to play for than Maryland, but the Terps are fully rested. So I guess I’ll pick the Terps here. It should be interesting to see if (or how much) Maryland’s interior defense has improved any since mid-February.

Maryland 74
Georgia Tech 68

Elsewhere in the ACC Tournament…

#9 Virginia vs. #1 Duke
Wow…with Boston College and Wake losing in the first round, the Dookies have their path to the final game paved and clear. The only thing that would make this easier for them would be to play NC State…actually, that didn’t go so well last time.
Pick: Duke 73, Virginia 55

#12 Miami vs. #4 Virginia Tech
So it looks as if Tech and Seth Greenberg are locks for the NCAA Tournament. That’s a real shame. I always look forward to Greenberg’s bitching, begging and whining at the committee this time of year.
Pick: Virginia Tech 68, Miami 57

#11 NC State vs. #3 Florida State
In the COY voting, Gary Williams locked down 42 votes. Ratface earned eight. Greenberg even managed to grab two votes. Not sure why, since I’m pretty sure that Virginia Tech faced a couple of high school teams during their non-conference schedule. But 10 ACC wins is 10 ACC wins. Meanwhile, Leonard Hamilton somehow grabbed a vote. The voting needs to be made public and the writer who gave Hamilton a vote should be banned from ever voting for any ACC awards ever again. The only thing worse would have been voting for Sidney Lowe.

NC State has a history of overachieving in this tournament. A few years back they made the final as a double-digit seed. In the 90’s, they twice won the old “play-in game” and managed to make it to Sunday. They have several factors going for them. The first is desperation. This is their season. They have nothing else to play for. Second is the crowd. Other than UNC, State typically has more fans in Greensboro than anyone else. Finally, unlike Maryland (and in this case FSU), the ACC Tournament means something to the Wolfpack…just like it means something to the other three Carolina schools. That said, I can’t see any scenario where I’ll pick the Pack over the next couple of days.
Pick: Florida State 71, NC State 63

ACC TOURNAMENT - 1ST ROUND
Originally posted at 11:06 a.m. on 3/10/10

This is the first time in my five years updating this page that Maryland earned a 1st round bye in the ACC Tournament. That makes this first set of games pretty easy for me. I finished the ACC season with a 47-19 record. Considering the state of the conference, I'm proud of that record. I'm not proud of the fact that I missed predicting several games...mostly due to apathy. Anyway, I will continually update the same post as the ACC Tournament continues. Come back on Friday for the next round.

#9 Virginia vs. #8 Boston College
No team in the entire nation has slept walked through the last month more than Virginia. We all knew the end was coming when the Hoos sprinted off to a 3-0 conference start, and were a very respectable 5-3 in the conference at the midway point. We all knew that they’d be lucky to win two conference games the rest of the way. But to finish at 0-8? To suspend the best player on the team and essentially kick him off the team for good? To lose Calvin Baker as well? I don’t think that anyone saw that coming. Even me.

Boston College has at least been competitive in the majority of their games. Al Skinner had a major talent drain this season. Even though I predicted at the beginning of the season that BC was headed for an 8th place finish, I half expected Skinner to pull the Eagles into the top half of the ACC. Boston College should be more competitive next season. They only lose Tyler Roche, who isn’t that important anyway. This was a good learning season for the Eagles.
Pick: Boston College 72, Virginia 56

#12 Miami vs. #5 Wake Forest
Does anyone trust the Deacons past the first round? Does anyone trust the Deacons in the first round? I’m not sure. I do know that Dino Gaudio is in serious trouble down in Winston-Salem. His grace and honeymoon period ended last year when Wake Forest tanked at the end of their promising season by losing to Maryland in their first ACC Tournament game and losing to Cleveland State in their first NCAA Tournament game. So this was the wrong season for Gaudio to pull the same kind of stunt. Odds are the Deacons will win here, slip into the NCAA’s somewhere between a 9-11 seed, and lose in the first round. Then again, would it shock me if they beat Virginia Tech on Friday, or lose to Miami in this game? Absolutely not. This team has been more maddening to predict than Georgia Tech.
Pick: Wake Forest 67, Miami 62

#10 North Carolina vs. #7 Georgia Tech
That noise you’ve been hearing since Monday is the Carolina media barking up a storm. UNC is the favorite “darkhorse” of the ACC Tournament. “They always play well in this thing.” “They’ll have a lot of fan support.” “They have underachieved, but they are talented.” Blah, blah, blah. There is no way the Heels win more than one game in this tournament, and they’ll only win one game if Paul Hewitt is in a charitable mood (which, if you’ve been following the Jackets, you know is not entirely out of the question). I’m not sure what anyone saw in UNC this season that could make a reasonable fan think this team is capable of winning four games in four days.
Pick: Georgia Tech 77, North Carolina 64

#11 NC State vs. #6 Clemson
If you are looking for a real darkhorse, Clemson might be the candidate. They get a pushover NC State team in the first round. This is a team they should beat handedly and most of the Tigers starters should get a decent amount of rest. Then they’ll play FSU, a team that Clemson has had success against in recent years. Then they’ll get Maryland (or Georgia Tech if the Terps are completely uninterested…which is a strong possibility). If you’ve paid attention to this page, you know Clemson matches up well with the Terps. Anyway, this is a Clemson team that could wreak havoc on the bottom half of the bracket.

As for NC State, could this be the end for Sidney Lowe? So soon? That’s a shame. We hardly got a chance to know each other. Well, if that’s the case…everyone raise your glasses in a toast: Here’s to our man Sidney, otherwise known as SLowe, the only coach that could make Herb Sendek look like John Wooden.
Pick: Clemson 81, NC State 63

The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 3/8/10

2010-03-08T00:08:00.002-05:00

Here are the latest rankings, no time for pith this week. Bids and brackets follow. I should be able to do this one more time before the selection show next Sunday.

1. Kansas (29-2), LW-1
2. Kentucky (29-2), LW-2
3. Purdue (26-4), LW-4
4. Syracuse (28-3), LW-3
5. West Virginia (24-6), LW-10
6. Michigan State (24-7), LW-11
7. Kansas State (24-6), LW-5
8. Duke (26-5), LW-7
9. New Mexico (28-3), LW-8
10. Villanova (24-6), LW-6
11. Ohio State (24-7), LW-12
12. BYU (28-4), LW-13
13. Vanderbilt (23-7), LW-9
14. Temple (26-5), LW-14
15. Gonzaga (26-5), LW-15
16. Baylor (24-6), LW-16
17. Maryland (23-7), LW-19
18. Texas A&M (22-8), LW-18
19. Pittsburgh (24-7), LW-20
20. Tennessee (23-7), LW-22
21. Wisconsin (23-7), LW-23
22. Butler (27-4), LW-21
23. UTEP (24-5), LW-24
24. Xavier (23-7), LW-NR
25. Florida State (22-8), LW-NR

Next 5: Texas, Georgetown, UNLV, Northern Iowa, Clemson

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics. Conference winners, and automatic tournament bids, in bold.

Notes: Connecticut out, Notre Dame in. Mississippi State out, Ole Miss (winners of four straight) back in. Rhode Island finally gets the boot and the Pac-10 finally gets a 2nd team. Florida really shouldn't be in with three straight losses, but they are clinging on for dear life because of the weak bubble.

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (8): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (7): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (2): Arizona State, California
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (3): Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: Troy
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Quinnipiac
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland

EAST REGION (Syracuse)
Buffalo
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Vermont
(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Marquette
New Orleans
(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Cornell
(5) Maryland vs. (12) UAB
Spokane
(6) Butler vs. (11) Georgia Tech
(3) BYU vs. (14) Murray State
Providence
(7) Missouri vs. (10) Richmond
(2) West Virginia vs. (15) Morgan State

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
New Orleans
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Quinnipiac
(8) Louisville vs. (9) UTEP
San Jose
(4) Temple vs. (13) Siena
(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Utah State
Milwaukee
(6) Georgetown vs. (11) St. Mary’s
(3) Ohio State vs. (14) Wofford
Jacksonville
(7) UNLV vs. (10) Old Dominion
(2) Duke vs. (15) East Tennessee State

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Oklahoma City
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Lehigh/Jackson State
(8) Northern Iowa vs. (9) Wake Forest
Jacksonville
(4) Tennessee vs. (13) Kent State
(5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) San Diego State
Providence
(6) Xavier vs. (11) Arizona State
(3) Villanova vs. (14) Oakland
Milwaukee
(7) Texas vs. (10) Virginia Tech
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Troy

WEST REGION (Salt Lake City)
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) Winthrop
(8) Clemson vs. (9) California
Spokane
(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Weber State
(5) Baylor vs. (12) Mississippi
San Jose
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Florida
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Sam Houston State
Oklahoma City
(7) Florida State vs. (10) Notre Dame
(2) Kansas State vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara

Maryland Basketball: Four Years Gone

2010-03-06T11:58:00.003-05:00

#22/23 Maryland Terrapins (22-7, 12-3 ACC) vs.
Virginia Cavaliers (14-14, 5-10 ACC)
John Paul Jones Arena – Charlottesville, VA

It was a great game. Great atmosphere, great effort from the home team and a great result at the end. Even more encouraging was the fact that Duke gave Maryland their best shot and still couldn’t win. On the other hand, Maryland didn’t play their A-game. Greivis Vasquez struggled for the first 30 minutes. Landon Milbourne was a non-factor again. Dino Gregory and James Padgett were forced to play more than Maryland fans would have liked to see. Despite all that, Maryland won by seven points against the “fourth” ranked team in the country.

Just look at the box score. It was a typical performance from the Dookies. They scored 72 points, which was actually above average for them on the road this season. Their three best players combined for 53 of the 72 points, which is typical for them. Their shooting percentages were a little low, but not extraordinarily low. They had 14 offensive rebounds to Maryland’s seven. That was basically the best performance that anyone could expect Dook to muster on the road. The Terps took the body blow and won anyway. Again, Maryland won’t typically get only five points from Milbourne in 18 minutes of play (early foul trouble). Gregory won’t have to be on the court for 20 minutes. The Terps combined for only one – ONE – steal as a team for the entire game. That’s extremely low for any team, including one like Maryland that forces a ton of turnovers. It certainly wasn’t the A-game for Maryland…more like a B+ effort. The Terps even overcame the presence of Karl Hess (a noted Ratface lover…who I predicted weeks ago would be working this game) and Les Jones, who has never seen a flop he doesn’t like or call.

Vasquez took control of the game down the stretch. Jordan Williams, who struggled at times with Lance Thomas and the 7’1” space alien jumping on his back, came through with several crucial rebounds and a huge putback in the final minutes. And Adrian Bowie finally left the Witness Protection Program and showed up for the first time in weeks. Bowie was 4-for-4 from the field, with each basket coming at a critical time. All four baskets came in different ways as well. He scored on a tough layup in transition, a driving floater, a stop-and-pop from 15 feet away (not his strength) and a step back three. I wish we’d see more of this from Bowie down the stretch run since he’ll be asked to score a lot more next season.

The crowd was fantastic. I don’t want to hear any of this b.s. about how vulgar the crowd was. You got people throwing coins and batteries at West Virginia, throwing full bottles at Mississippi State. I know Maryland fans used to do that (back when I was a student), and a part of me wishes the student body was ballsy enough to do it again, but since the infamous Boozer’s Mother game in 2001, I don’t think I’ve seen or heard about anything being thrown at a Maryland game. If the students want to yell curse words, it’s their right. It’s a public university and vulgar language is protected speech. It’s nothing compared to what we’ve heard chanted throughout the years at Juan Dixon (Virginia’s fans came through with the “crack-head parents” chant), D.J. Strawberry (a favorite at ACC arenas everywhere) and Greivis Vasquez (FSU, Virginia Tech and NC State come to mind…even a couple of years ago at Dook there were some heavily xenophobic/racial taunts directed his way). If Maryland fans want to chant “Fuck you Scheyer” then it’s their prerogative. Deal with it. If you don’t like it, don’t go to the games or watch them on TV with the sound down. You think the media is sick and tired of whining about those classless Maryland fans? I’m sick and tired of the media continuously making a big deal about Maryland fans, who might as well be pacifists compared to some of the other fan bases. Just because Maryland fans do it louder and clearer than others shouldn’t make them the poster boy for bad fans. Anyway, I thought the crowd was great. It was certainly the loudest I’ve heard the new building. I also had no problem with the court storm. You win a game over the “fourth” ranked team in the final home game of the year and almost clinch a share of the ACC title…a court storming is allowable.

Lost in all the excitement is Maryland’s season finale at Virginia. The Terps last won in Charlottesville four years and one arena ago. And it’s not as if the Cavaliers have been lighting the conference on fire since 2006. Combine Maryland’s recent futility at Virginia with a potential for a classic letdown game and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Terps lay an egg and lose this one. The fact that Virginia has been in a month-long nose dive only heightens my anxiety. They are due for a decent performance before the year is done. They’ll get it in this game or in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

We last saw the Hoos on February 15th. They were coming off a loss to Virginia Tech and were sitting at 14-8 overall, 5-4 in the ACC. Maryland ran Virginia off the Comcast Center floor with an 85-66 beating that wasn’t even as close as the final score indicated. Since that time, Virginia has lost five more games. They’ve scored 60+ only once during that stretch. There have been two occasions where Virginia has failed to score 50. Over the last five games, the Cavs have only averaged 53 points and have lost by an average of 17 points. That’s a remarkable run of ineffectiveness. Virginia hasn’t won a game in over a month (February 3rd against NC State) and they haven’t beaten a decent team since their win against Georgia Tech on January 13th.

Things have gone horribly wrong for Tony Bennett. This is the Virginia I expected to see at the beginning of the season. Bennett was known at Washington State for his defensive tactics and low-scoring games. It wasn’t uncommon for Wazzau to win games 55-47. However, that was the Pac-10. This is the ACC. The offenses are better. Bennett’s UVA team has been scoring at the same clip as his WSU teams did in the past. But his brand of defense has yet to carry over. That’s why you have seen Virginia lose games by an average of 17 points.

It hasn’t helped that his best player has been dealing with a calf injury the past couple of weeks. Sylven Landesberg missed the game against Dook and then struggled at Boston College. He is expected to play today, but will be nowhere near 100%. Furthermore, Virginia’s 2nd best scoring option has been relegated to Bennett’s doghouse. Mike Scott was benched during UVA’s disgusting display against Dook. He was then left out of the starting lineup against BC. Even though Jerome Meyinsse has picked up a little of the slack inside (and I still don’t know why it took Bennett three months to realize Meyinsse is pretty good and deserves more than 15-20 minutes per game), the rest of this team can’t score. So to recap: Landesberg not completely healthy, Scott in the doghouse, Meyinsse and Sammy Zeglinski are the only other scoring options. The rest of this roster is a collection of players who have never played up to potential (Calvin Baker, Solomon Tat, Mustapha Farrakhan) or haven’t been given a chance (Jeff Jones, Jontel Evans and Tristan Spurlock…who was Virginia’s Mr. Basketball and rarely gets in games).

Looking at the rosters and the coaches, there is no real reason that Maryland should lose this game. Not with a share of the ACC title (or perhaps sole possession of it) on the line. It's not going to be a tough road enviroment. I doubt many UVA fans show, and the rumors are that as many as a few thousand Terp fans will make the 90-minute drive to C-ville. However, we’ve seen this before from Terps teams in the past. Virginia is often an afterthought to Dook or UNC. This has all the makings of a trap-game, perfectly nuzzled in between the Dook game and the ACC Tournament. And Maryland has struggled mightily at Virginia against some pretty bad teams. Like I said above, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Maryland found a way to screw this one up. I’m going to trust this team though. They’ve proven throughout the conference season that they can get up for good teams and bad teams and that they won’t suffer a hangover from a previous big win or loss. Let’s go claim this ACC crown boys.

Maryland 72
Virginia 58

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Totally flaked on the games last week, so I’m 43-17 coming into the final weekend.

Florida State at Miami
The Seminoles are in the NCAA Tournament. However, they are flirting with that 8-9 seed cutline. They don’t want to be there and play a #1 seed in the 2nd round. So it would behoove them to win this game and get into the seven seed range.
Pick: Florida State 68, Miami 58

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
In the battle of technological that are ironically terrible at engineering (GT has problems with their arena’s roof while VT has problems keeping beer trucks away from their water mains), this is also what amounts to a bubble elimination game. The Hokies must win and then probably must grab a game in the ACC Tournament. The Jackets better win or they too will be forced to win in the ACC Tournament…and since they’ll probably face a resurgent UNC, this is almost a must win for them.
Pick: Georgia Tech 73, Virginia Tech 66

North Carolina at Duke
I’ll be rooting for UNC, but I know they likely have about a 5% chance of winning this game. Maryland isn’t a team that usually catches breaks.
Pick: Duke 78, UNC 63

Boston College at NC State
Ed note: Comments edited out due to worthlessness of game.
Pick: Boston College 61, NC State 59

Clemson at Wake Forest
The Deacons are in trouble. By no means are they a lock for the NCAA Tournament yet. They are playing their worst basketball of the season. They’ve lost four in a row, including a loss to NC State. And check out the box score from their most recent game. Ish Smith scored 14. C.J. Harris scored 12. What about 1st Team All-ACC player Al-Farouq Aminu? He took the donut. No points in the loss to FSU. How does that happen? This is more inexcusable than Georgia Tech not getting the ball to Favors/Lawal. Dino Gaudio…you are no Skip Prosser.
Pick: Wake Forest 75, Clemson 71

Maryland Basketball: Señor Night

2010-03-03T13:20:00.002-05:00

#4/4 Duke Blue Devils (25-4, 12-2 ACC) vs.
#22/23 Maryland Terrapins (21-7, 11-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Ain’t the beer cold? The answer, if you live in Blacksburg at least, is no. A beer truck runs into a fire hydrant and causes a water main pipe to break and delay the game. Only in the redneck south. I was shocked to learn that Blacksburg even has running water and indoor plumbing. I honestly thought Hokies fans just popped a squat wherever they were sitting. There’s a reason I called Cassell Coliseum a dump.

Beer trucks, fire hydrants and xenophobic cheers aside, Maryland escaped Southwestern Virginia with a closer than necessary win. I’ll start off by saying that any road win in this conference is impressive. Blacksburg is not an easy place to play when their fans get off football recruiting websites and make it to the game. So any win, even one in double overtime, is a good one. However, let’s be honest here. Virginia Tech is not a good team. I don’t care how many times their moron coach goes in front of the camera to claim they are. I don’t care what their record suggests. The Hokies have avoided home-and-homes with most of the league’s top teams, which means their record is better than it should be. In reality, they aren’t any better than NC State or Boston College. At this point of the season, Maryland should not need 104 points and two overtimes to put away a team of that caliber.

Despite the win, there were plenty of reoccurring problems. The first is the continuing absence of Landon Milbourne. Someone may want to locate Landon and tell him his Senior Night is today. No one will be happier to see February end than Milbourne, whose numbers dropped off a cliff during the month (9.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg). His stat line from the last two games looks almost identical…eight points/one rebound. I would say that Milbourne is wearing down, but he’s only averaging 29.7 minutes a game this season. That’s almost exactly what he averaged last season, and he doesn’t have to bang inside as much in 2010 as he did in 2009. I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on with him.

The Terps also continued their recent futility on the boards. I can understand struggling against Georgia Tech and Clemson. But Virginia Tech? A team that has one decent rebounder? A team that has actually been worse than Maryland on the glass since January? There’s no excuse for that. Jordan Williams is doing all he can inside, but he needs some help. Specifically, he needs help from Milbourne and Dino Gregory. Sean Mosley is currently 2nd on the team in rebounds. That can’t continue.

Finally, Maryland has to do a better job recovering on defense. Every time someone drives, the Terps don’t seem to know what to do. Do we collapse on the guy with the ball? Do we trust the man covering him and stay on the perimeter? The defense is hesitating way too much. A lot has been made of Maryland’s shoddy defense against Malcolm Delaney on Saturday. That doesn’t worry me…a foul was called every time a Terp defender breathed on him. So it’s reasonable to back off after Delaney’s been allowed to go to the foul line every other trip down the court. But Jeff Allen had way too many open looks and Virginia Tech made way too many long distance shots in the latter part of last weekend’s game. Individual defense is not the problem, but team defense has become one.

This might come as a surprise, but I’m not going to waste a lot of time talking about tonight’s opponent. They don’t deserve much mention in this space. Especially on Senior Night. I know I’ve hated a little on Milbourne recently, but it’s more out of frustration then dislike. The performance he put on last year was incredible. He played out of position all season long. He was asked to go toe-to-toe with players two-to-four inches taller than he was and at least 20 pound heavier. Many Maryland fans like to point to Greivis Vasquez and single him out as the reason the Terps made a run to the tournament. Others point to Dave Neal and his grittiness. I think Maryland’s success last season should be credited to Gary Williams and Landon Milbourne. If Milbourne didn’t do the job at power forward last season, there’s no way Maryland sniffs the tournament. He sacrificed any chance he had at the NBA (and he did have a decent chance) and played out of position for the team’s benefit. Hopefully he rediscovers that ability and gets out of this slump in the next week or so.

It’s easy to overlook Eric Hayes. He’s quiet on and off the court. He rarely shows emotion. Other than the occasional three-point hot streak, it’s easy to ignore his contributions. But Hayes does more than shoot threes. He’s accepted his role as a facilitator in the flex offense. Hayes has been the yin to Vasquez’s yang. When Vasquez wants to take the game over, Hayes is usually the one that gets him the ball. Hayes has also developed nicely into a great defender. I remember two years ago when he couldn’t guard anyone and he’d often be assigned the least dangerous scorer on the court. That’s no longer the case. Hayes has also been the team’s best free throw shooter for a number of years now, and has salted away plenty of wins at the charity stripe. He will most likely never see the court for a NBA team, but he should have a future overseas. If he wants to play overseas, or continue playing at all. He’s on track to graduate and those who know him say he’s absolutely brilliant. There’s no doubt he’ll succeed in whatever he does.

That leads me to Vasquez. There’s not much I can say that other won’t write about in the upcoming weeks. I think he’s without a doubt one of the most complete players to spend time in College Park. He doesn’t just score. He rebounds, he passes, he plays defense. He’s obviously the emotional leader of the team. Two years ago, I couldn’t stand the guy. I wrote about it several times. He was leading the NCAA in turnovers, he was forcing shots he couldn’t make and he was weighing down the team. What I failed to see at that time was that if he didn’t force those shots, or force those passes, no one on the team would have. He took the shots, he took the chances because he had to. Not necessarily because he wanted to. At the beginning of the 2008-09 season, I stopped worrying about all the plays Vasquez didn’t make, and started focusing on the amazing plays he did. He’s been a joy to watch ever since.

The debate will rage on whether or not Vasquez is a Top 10 all-time Maryland player. I certainly have a hard time putting him in the Top 5 (Bias, Dixon, Elmore, King and Lucas…in that order). But I have no problem sticking him somewhere in the next five (Buck Williams, Walt Williams, McMillen, Joe Smith, Booth) and definitely ahead of the next five (Branch, Blake, Baxter, Morris and Shue). There’s no question that his jersey will be raised to the rafters at some point. Many are hoping tonight. I would doubt it, simply because it’s disrespectful to the other seniors. This is Senior Night, not Vasquez Night. But his jersey will be raised in the near future. As most of you know, he’s the only player in ACC history to tally 2,000 points, 700 assists and 600 rebounds. He is now third on Maryland’s all-time scoring list, and has a chance to pass Bias for 2nd before the season is through. The only thing missing from his resume is a tournament run of some kind (whether it be ACC or NCAA related). He still has a chance to do that and move up the list of all-time greats.

So first place in the conference, or at least a share of it, is on the line tonight. Maryland took a beating in the Durham Dump, but it was almost expected. There were a lot of factors working against the Terps that day...both in the stands and on the court. The pendulum is shifting the other way tonight. Along with Senior Night (and possible jersey raising), along with a conference title in the balance, the Dookies will now have to deal with nearly 18,000 fans including our fair share of former players, coaches and celebrities. The reports of crazyness and hi-jinks is off the charts. I heard a lot of things, including mocking posters of this goofy bastard, this bizarre video (go about 2 minutes in) and this incident at Miami (a few hundred conch shells would do the trick). Should be fun to see. This is the best chance for Maryland to beat this team, and the losing streak at the hands of these dorks is getting very annoying. It may be the biggest game ever in the new building. I’ll be there and you can be assured the arena will be rocking. Can the seniors deliver one last time?

Maryland 76
Duke 71

The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Bracket 3/1/10

2010-03-01T00:30:00.000-05:00

The two top teams lost this week, but that doesn’t mean I’m changing things around too much.

1. Kansas (27-2), LW-1: Loss at a desperate and talented OK State team is no reason to drop the Jayhawks.
2. Kentucky (27-2), LW-2: Probably won’t be sold on UK until they prove they can get to the Final Four. Any team with John Wall, Patrick Patterson and company should still get the benefit of the doubt.
3. Syracuse (27-2), LW-4: Would love to see these guys score a decent road win, but the Big East has kowtowed so they have no tough road games.
4. Purdue (24-4), LW-4: Robbie Hummel was important, but this isn’t a Kenyon Martin situation. Plenty of good players left for Purdue.
5. Kansas State (24-4), LW-6: Perhaps the quietest 24-4 team in history.
6. Villanova (23-5), LW-5: Entire team seems to be going through a shooting slump during the past two weeks. I’m sure they’ll straighten it out by mid-March
7. Duke (25-4), LW-7: Tulsa? Really? Not exactly scheduling tough during a bye week.
8. New Mexico (27-3), LW-8: Don’t know why the Lobos aren’t being considered for a potential 2-seed. They are certainly one of the best 8-10 teams in the country.
9. Vanderbilt (22-6), LW-13: Are the Commodores really the 9th best team in the country? No, but they are one of the few teams that didn’t lose this week.
10. West Virginia (22-6), LW-9: Got destroyed by UConn, but that’s not the same UConn team we all saw in January.
11. Michigan State (22-7), LW-12: Good win over Purdue, need to win conference tournament to get back in discussion
12. Ohio State (22-7), LW-15: Reluctantly keep moving the Buckeyes up. Makes no sense to have them past WVU since they lost to them and have a worse record.
13. BYU (26-4), LW-10: Had a chance to cement themselves in the Top 10, but couldn’t protect home court against New Mexico.
14. Temple (24-5), LW-14: Beat Dayton in a thrilling 49-41 slobber knocker. Win against La Salle won’t help them move up any.
15. Gonzaga (24-5), LW-16: I still can’t believe I have four non-BCS schools in my Top 15. It’s been a very strange season.
16. Baylor (22-6), LW-21: Not quite sure what to do with the Big XII. Texas beat Ok State, but lost to A&M. A&M lost to Baylor. Baylor not really a team that should be ranked 16th. This is my best guess.
17. Texas A&M (20-8), LW-18: Like Baylor, the Aggies are probably a few spots too high. Next couple of weeks should sort out the Big XII South.
18. Texas (22-7), LW-11: Good win against Oklahoma State, but they were dominated by in-state rival A&M. They also lost two of their better guards for the considerable future.
19. Maryland (21-7), LW-24: I honestly feel this is too low for the Terps. A couple of wins this week will vault them up into the Top 15.
20. Pittsburgh (22-7), LW-19: Not sure why losing to a Notre Dame team without Luke Harangody is suddenly a popular trend.
21. Butler (26-4). LW-20: Ooooooh. Five-point win over Valparaiso this week. Am I supposed to be impressed?
22. Tennessee (21-7), LW-22: Good loss to Kentucky and a bad loss to Florida means the Vols don’t move from the 22nd spot.
23. Wisconsin (21-7), LW-23: What I said for Butler goes for Wisconsin. They only had one game this week and it was against Indiana.
24. UTEP (22-5), LW-NR: The Miners have been hot recently, and were ranked last week. So I’ll bite and put them in this week.
25. Georgetown (19-8), LW-17: This team could still potentially be in the AP Top 15 this week. Not sure what it is about this team that screams Top 15. Or even Top 25 for that matter.

Next 5: Florida State, Xavier, UNLV, Missouri, Mississippi State

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

Notes: Changes from last week…and there aren’t many. UConn is in, I don’t agree with it, but I can’t see the committee leaving them out. Wichita State finally leaves. Illinois, which is in most of the mock brackets, doesn’t make mine. They are 10-6 in a lousy conference and their RPI is in the 70’s. Other than that, the other changes came in the small conferences. Virginia Tech and Rhode Island continue to hold on to bids by their chinny-chin-chins.

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (8): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin Big XII (7): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1): California
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (4): Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: North Texas
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Quinnipiac
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland

EAST REGION (Syracuse)
Milwaukee
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Belmont
(8) UTEP vs. (9) Clemson
New Orleans
(4) Baylor vs. (13) Cornell
(5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) Utah State
Spokane
(6) Texas vs. (11) Florida
(3) BYU vs. (14) Murray State
Providence
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Georgia Tech
(2) Villanova vs. (15) Coastal Carolina

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
New Orleans
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Lehigh/Jackson State
(8) Northern Iowa vs. (9) Marquette
San Jose
(4) Michigan State vs. (13) Rhode Island
(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Virginia Tech
Buffalo
(6) Butler vs. (11) San Diego State
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Sam Houston State
Jacksonville
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) St. Mary’s
(2) Duke vs. (15) Morgan State

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Oklahoma City
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Quinnipiac
(8) California vs. (9) Richmond
Spokane
(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Kent State
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Connecticut
Jacksonville
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Old Dominion
(3) Vanderbilt vs. (14) Wofford
San Jose
(7) Florida State vs. (10) Louisville
(2) New Mexico vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara

WEST REGION (Salt Lake City)
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) Stony Brook
(8) Missouri vs. (9) UAB
Providence
(4) Temple vs. (13) Weber State
(5) Maryland vs. (12) Siena
Milwaukee
(6) Georgetown vs. (11) Mississippi State
(3) Ohio State vs. (14) Oakland
Oklahoma City
(7) UNLV vs. (10) Wake Forest
(2) Kansas State vs. (15) North Texas

Maryland Basketball: Malcolm In The Middle

2010-02-26T13:55:00.005-05:00

Maryland Terrapins (20-7, 10-3 ACC) vs.
Virginia Tech Hokies (21-6, 8-5 ACC)
Cassell Coliseum – Blacksburg, VA

As the season heads down the backstretch of February and into March, there are several obvious points that need to be made about the Maryland Terrapins. No, I’m not going to sit here and opine on how good Greivis Vasquez is (even though he is 2nd in the ACC in scoring and 1st in assists and leads all guards in shooting percentage), since that would be too obvious. In no particular order:

1. The Maryland Terrapins should be ranked, regardless of what happens in this game. There is no way a sane college basketball fan can make the argument that Maryland isn’t one of the best 25 teams in the country. Everyone can point to the William & Mary loss, but half of the Top 25 own losses that are far worse than that one. What else is the problem? Quality wins out of the conference? Ok, fair enough I guess. But don’t wins against Clemson, Georgia Tech and two against Florida State begin to make up for that? Doesn’t a 10-3 conference record prove something? Here’s a history note, and I looked this one up to make sure: no 10-3 ACC team has EVER been unranked in the AP poll. How ridiculous are the polls? Miami has been ranked more recently than Maryland. Are the Terps a Top 15 team? Not yet. A Top 25 team? Certainly.

2. No team in the country, with the possible of exception of Kansas, is going to be happy to see Maryland in their bracket. Especially the higher seeds that are going to find Maryland in their sub-regional. Kansas is really the only team that could look at Maryland’s talent, experience and recent hot-streak and shrug their shoulders. Every other team is going to be at least slightly concerned about playing a team with a senior backcourt, a somewhat deep rotation and one of the greatest coaches in the game.

3. This is where I start to get critical a little. Maryland is going to lose somewhere in the NCAA Tournament. I have no grand delusion that this team can run the table. They are going to lose to a physical team that manages to muscle Vasquez out of the middle of the court and dominates Jordan Williams with two big forwards. Georgia Tech tried this approach, and it nearly worked. If Paul Hewitt wasn’t their coach and if Cliff Tucker didn’t happen to make one of the biggest shots in the last few years, the Jackets would have won (and probably handedly). Some of the possible higher seeds that really concern me (other than the obvious pair of Kansas and Kentucky) and Maryland could run into early: Michigan State, Pittsburgh and (gag me) Georgetown. Anyone really want to see Greg Monroe in a single-elimination game?

4. This kind of follows up with point #3. The solid team rebounding that took place earlier in the season has disappeared. Jordan Williams is doing his best, but he’s a freshman, he’s starting to wear down, and he’s getting little help from Dino Gregory and Landon Milbourne. Williams has done a good job shutting down opponents’ top rebounders, but Maryland has struggled to keep the secondary rebounders off the glass. The Terps effort on the boards against Georgia Tech and Clemson were worse that Canada’s effort at lighting their Olympic cauldron.

5. Milbourne is going to be the key to the postseason…either for good or for bad. Here’s what Milbourne has done in some of the tougher conference games this season:

FSU: 6-11, 13 pts, 7 rebs, 2 blks
@Wake: 5-15, 11 pts, 6 rebs
@Clemson: 1-8, 3 pts, 5 rebs, 2 blks
@FSU: 7-13, 18 pts, 6 rebs, 3 blks
@Duke: 1-6, 2 pts, 3 rebs, 2 blks
GTech: 2-11, 5 pts, 7 rebs, 2 blks
Clemson: 2-5, 8 pts, 1 rebs, 3 blks

As you can see, Milbourne has been all over the map the past six weeks, but he’s trending downward. Other than the two games against FSU, he hasn’t shown up when the team needed him most. You can see that his two worst outings came in losses. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. If it wasn’t for Williams, Tucker and Sean Mosley, Maryland would have lost their last two games. Maryland proved against Clemson that Vasquez can have an off-night shooting and still find a way to win. As good as Vasquez is, he needs help for Maryland to win consistently. Milbourne is the versatile threat that perfectly complements Vasquez. He has to be a senior leader and has to step up. Eight points and one board won’t cut it.

That’s how I see it right now. The team’s confidence levels are peaking. Vasquez is delivering a consistent performance every night. Even when he struggles to score (as he did against Clemson) he manages to dish out 13 assists. That’s an absurdly high amount for one game. I’ve seen plenty of college games where teams haven’t had 13 assists as a whole. Like I said above, it’s encouraging to see the rest of the team come to rescue when Vasquez isn’t scoring. It took them a half, but that’s why they play 40 minutes. There are a lot of good vibes around this team with a just a couple of ominous signs. I like the way they played in February, and they’ll get far in both the ACC and NCAA Tournament if they play the same way in March.

To Virginia Tech. The Hokies come in with at 21-6 overall, but looks can be deceiving. As the bubble watchers will tell you, Virginia Tech has one of the worst out of conference schedules imaginable. It may be historically bad. As of Friday, their out-of-conference schedule was ranked 339th in the country...out of 347 teams. Their four games against BCS conference schools came against teams who have no chance of even sniffing the tournament: Seton Hall, Iowa, Penn State and Georgia. Their only tough game away from the ACC came against Temple, a game that Tech lost easily. Other than that, their schedule included (in order): Brown, UNC-Greensboro, Campbell, Delaware (and the Hokies needed OT to win), VMI, Charleston Southern, UMBC, Longwood and North Carolina Central. Four of those teams are below 300 in the RPI. It is rare for a BCS school, especially one that has NCAA Tournament hopes, to play two teams that will finish sub-300 in the RPI. Tech has four on their schedule. Three more of those schools are between 250 and 300. This is just awful. Seth Greenberg is not even trying.

The ACC slate at least helped Tech bump their SOS to 138th in the country. That’s still dead last in the ACC, but it’s an improvement from 339th (Miami is the only other ACC team to have a SOS sub-100). For most of February, the Hokies were unbeatable. Just a week ago, Tech was riding a five-game winning streak. Since then, the Hokies lost to Duke and got blown out at Boston College. The loss to BC, while predictable (see my last post), was still embarrassing. The Hokies lost by 20, and the game really wasn’t that close. At 21-6, and 8-5 in the conference, Virginia Tech’s record is too good for the committee to ignore. But that loss to BC is going to start pushing Tech to the wrong side of the bubble. The Hokies finish with the Terps, NC State and at Georgia Tech. If they only beat NC State during that stretch, there is no way Virginia Tech should be allowed in the dance. I don’t care if they have 22 wins. I don’t care if they are above .500 in conference play. Better teams have been left out of the NCAA Tournament in the past. The committee must come down on Tech like they did in previous seasons on Syracuse. The committee has to force power conference teams to play at least three or four challenging non-conference games, or the non-conference schedule (and part of the regular season) becomes meaningless.

For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech is a two-man team. Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson are a good one-two punch, but that’s all Tech has. Delaney is a slasher more than a shooter, and his numbers bare that out. He’s been to the line 216 times; most in the ACC. He also shoots almost 85% from the stripe. This is typical of a player who takes it to the rim. However, for a guard, Delaney shoots a poor percentage from the floor (38%) and is even worse from three (30%). Keep him from driving, and he can be neutralized. I’ve seen Delaney several times this season. I know he averages 20 points a game. I’ve just never been impressed with him. He’s containable. Sean Mosley should be able to do a decent job on him.

Hudson worries me a little more. He tends to be streaky and his numbers are not as good as Delaney’s. But he’s a scrappy player. He makes several key hustle plays in every game. And since he’s streaky, he can be a perfect complement to Delaney. Maryland can’t afford to pay too much attention to him (Eric Hayes will probably be defending), so there’s a chance he chips in 14-18 points…which will be enough for Tech if Delaney is playing well.

Other than that, there isn’t much to worry about for Maryland. Jeff Allen is still in Blacksburg, but he’s regressed over the last couple of seasons. He’s averaging almost four fouls a game and can’t stay on the floor. Despite being the starting center/power forward, he’s only on the court for 25 minutes. All Maryland, and specifically Vasquez, has to do is go after him early. Tech is not deep (only seven guys average 10+ minutes), most notably inside. This may be one of the only teams in the conference that Maryland has an inside advantage against especially if Allen is in foul trouble. J.T. Thompson, Victor Davila and Terrell Bell will all see playing time, but none of them are good for much. The three of them only combine for 16 points and 13 rebounds in 68 minutes.

Honestly, I’m not sure how Tech has managed to win eight conference games. They only average 37 boards a game, and are well in the minus in rebounding margin (minus 4.1 in conference play to be exact). Over their last six games, Tech has only grabbed 57% of their opponents misses. That’s dreadful. That’s even worse than the Terps have been doing recently. The Hokies shoot 42% from the floor and 72% from the line. Both are good, but certainly not great. They only shoot 30% from beyond the arc. They average more turnovers (12.5 per) than assists (11.6 per). The only two things they do well is get to the free throw line and force turnovers. They are well above average defensively. Tech forces about 16 turnovers a game and their 7.3 steals per game is 2nd best in the ACC. However, with the exception of two conference games, Maryland doesn’t turn the ball over a lot…so that should negate that strength.

The Hokies are undefeated at home. Cassell Coliseum is a dump, but it can be a loud dump when it’s sold out. If Greenberg can convince enough of his students to stop paying attention to football recruiting, he should have no problem filling the small arena. That’s been a challenge as of late. I wouldn’t put too much stock into Tech’s 14-0 home record. They haven’t played too many good teams at Cassell. Of the top four teams in the conference (not counting Tech), the Hokies haven’t played Duke, Maryland or FSU at home. Their toughest home game so far came against Wake Forest. Wake outplayed Tech for most of that game, until Greenberg threw a zone at the Deacons and Dino Gaudio panicked. Their conference home wins have come against UNC, Miami, BC, UVA, Clemson and Wake. That’s not the strongest home slate, so like their overall record, don’t be fooled by the home record either.

This would be a good road win for Maryland, and would set up the game on Wednesday (against a team I dare not speak of yet) very nicely. Hopefully the Terps aren’t caught looking ahead. I'm sure Tech will be ready with their typical thug-antics from Allen and coaching from Greenberg. This Hokies team reminds me more and more of the mid-90's Bob Huggins Cincinnati teams. You know they are going to be athletic, and you know they are going to throw their fair share of elbows. The Hokies definitely have enough talent with Delaney and Hudson to jump up and bite Maryland if they aren't ready.

Maryland 73
Virginia Tech 66

Elsewhere in the ACC…

A nice 3-0 midweek record puts me at 41-14 for the season. That’s pretty darn good in the unpredictable ACC this year.

Boston College at Georgia Tech
If the Jackets find a way to lose this one, then they may not be headed for the NCAA Tournament. Paul Hewitt might also be headed to the unemployment line.
Pick: Georgia Tech 71, Boston College 57

North Carolina at Wake Forest
There’s a potential for an upset here, but I just don’t see the Tar Heels having an answer for both Aminu and Ish Smith. Plus, Wake has had a whole week to stew over their terrible loss to State.
Pick: Wake Forest 82, North Carolina 71

NC State at Miami
Picking this game is like picking a Raiders-Chiefs mid-December game. It’s pointless, and I can save a lot of time (both yours and mine) by not talking a lot about it.
Pick: Miami 68, NC State 61

Clemson at Florida State
Other than MD-Tech, this is the best of the week’s games. I’m feeling pretty good if I’m FSU about a tournament bid. Clemson, on the other hand, needs this one. They don’t desperately need this one, but they need this one. The Tigers showed some signs of life in College Park, but I fear their lousy 2nd half will carry over and cost them against a rested Seminoles team.
Pick: Florida State 77, Clemson 67

Duke at Virginia
Remember when I talked about what I would do if I were in charge of the ACC? I’d make every team play everyone else once before playing the five home-and-homes. This is an example of why. Duke managed to avoid UVA until the last week of February. If Duke played the Cavs in January or early February like everyone else did, then Virginia would have had a pretty good shot of beating them. Now that the Hoos are spiraling out of control, this is an easy win for the Dookies.
Pick: Duke 82, Virginia 65

Maryland Basketball: Chairman Yow

2010-02-24T16:25:00.002-05:00

Clemson Tigers (19-7, 7-5 ACC) vs
Maryland Terrapins (19-7, 9-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Imagine what would happen if Cliff Tucker played more than nine minutes a game. Maybe next time Maryland wouldn’t need a buzzer beater to win.

Make no mistake about it, that was a very exciting game against a very good Georgia Tech team. I had been wondering all season when Paul Hewitt would start forcing his guards to get the ball inside. The Jackets had yet to do it all season. Until Saturday. Hewitt finally went with the smart game plan, and probably should have won the game. Unless Maryland runs into Tech in the ACC Tournament, Saturday will thankfully be the last time any of us have to see Derrick Favors. I lost count of how many times Dino Gregory and Landon Milbourne failed to find Favors and box him out, but his 21 points and 18 REBOUNDS (nine offensive, but it felt like more) suggest several occasions.

That’s about as well played a game as you will see in college basketball. Both teams went to their strengths down the stretch, and despite decent defense, neither squad could get a stop when it needed it the most. Maryland just happened to have the last shot…or two. By the way, I think it’s been made pretty public but in case you missed, Gary Williams did not call the timeout before Greivis Vasquez’s non-game winner. It was Keith Booth. I can almost guarantee that Gary "fired" him (as Gary is infamous for doing...ask Jimmy Patsos how many times he was fired over the course of a bad game) during the subsequent timeout. Luckily for Keith, Tucker bailed him out. And for the record, the referees blew that call. The only people who can call a timeout are the five players on the court or the head coach. Booth doesn’t qualify under either of those categories. The timeout should never have been awarded. That’s a pretty old rule too. But I wouldn’t expect Mike Eades and company to remember that. I wouldn’t expect Eades to remember how to dress himself. Maryland was just fortunate enough to get a few extra tenths on the clock before play resumed.

So kudos to Cliff Tucker for stepping up and drilling a big shot. It’s not only an important win for Maryland, it’s an important basket for Tucker. The roller-coaster ride he and his playing time take on a weekly basis makes it impossible for him to get in any rhythm. Hopefully a shot like that helps gives him confidence. Hopefully a shot like that gives him a little more playing time. If you bail out the team and your assistant coach, you should be given a few extra minutes a game. I don’t know how many different ways I can beg to see more of Tucker, so maybe that shot did the trick. Also kudos to Gary. It was a brilliant call. Everyone and their mother expected Vasquez to take the shot. That included Hewitt and Georgia Tech. Gary used Vasquez as a decoy and two Tech defenders were taken completely out of the play as a result.

You would think that with three wins over the course of six days would get Maryland into the polls. You’d be wrong. As I say at least two or three times every year, I really don’t care too much about the rankings. ESPN’s poll is a joke that the network uses to overrate teams that are going to be on their air. The AP poll is a little better, but it’s still constructed by writers who probably haven’t seen half the teams they’re ranking. Regardless, Maryland’s absence from the polls shows how meaningless they truly are. Georgetown is currently 19-7. That’s the same record as Maryland. They are #11 in the AP. Eleventh-ranked! I know they’ve played one of the tougher schedules in the country (compared to Maryland, which still has played a very respectable 30th). They also own losses to South Florida and Rutgers (110th in the RPI). They beat Louisville last night, but they hadn’t won for almost two weeks before that. So if Georgetown can scam the voters for an 11th ranking, are you telling me that Maryland couldn’t be squeezed somewhere in between 20 and 25? By the way, good to see Northern Iowa is in the polls over Maryland. That loss last night to RPI-275th ranked Evansville sure was tough. Almost as bad as their loss earlier this month to Bradley. Or the one earlier this season to DePaul. What a farce.

Speaking of farces, how about the Maryland athletic director? That’s right, I promised all season I would do a brief write-up of how Debbie Yow is screwing up the athletic department. And since Maryland already played Clemson this season, this will be the post. Yow has been the AD at Maryland since 1994. During her tenure, the Maryland athletic department as a whole has won 18 national championships. She reduced the debt that the department owed to nearly nothing. However, since the early part of the last decade, things have started to go horribly wrong for Maryland athletics. And for at least the past five to seven years, Yow has been scheming to get rid of Gary.

Gary and Yow had a decent relationship up until the point that Maryland won their national championship in basketball. Yow knew that Gary would rightfully get most of the credit, but she wanted some herself. However, all the media attention focused on Gary Williams building the program back up from nothing. Very little was written about Yow. The current feud between the two originates from that. She feels she wasn’t given enough credit for turning the program around. Or put it another way…Maryland has 27 programs; Yow has hired the head coach for 26 of those teams at one point or another. Obviously the only one she has had no influence on is men’s basketball. For all intents and purposes, men’s basketball (not football) is the premier sport at Maryland. This rift is all about power and media attention. Yow wants credit, Yow wants power and Gary has basically told her to go fuck off.

So Yow has tried several methods to get rid of him. She’s not stupid; she knows she simply can’t fire Gary for personal reasons. The media and fan base would eat her alive. The first attempt to get rid of Gary was after the back-to-back poor seasons of 2005 and 2006. Maryland missed the tournament both years. The honeymoon period for the championship was over. Suddenly a story floated in to the Washington Post. According to “sources” in the athletic department, there was internal discussion about replacing Williams. Obviously there’s no way to prove it, but chances are the “sources” were one of Yow’s flunkies or Yow herself. There was severe backlash to the story and nothing ever came of it. It was merely a way for Yow to dip her foot in the water to test the temperature. She gauged the reaction of the fan base, and backed off. She realized she’d have to try another approach.

It became clear to her that there were only two ways to get rid of Gary. The first was hoping that the basketball team would go on a prolonged tournament drought. The second was getting fan opinion on her side by painting Gary as a bad guy. Immediately after the ’05 and ’06 seasons, Yow attempted to succeed at the first theory.

Over the last few years, Yow has systematically gone out of her way to nix every borderline recruit that Gary has tried to bring to Maryland. Shane Clark was the first. Clark’s eligibility was up for debate at the NCAA Clearinghouse. Williams went to bat for Clark. Yow and the department did not. Clark was denied admission to the university before school started (but after he had already moved in to the dorms…I saw him moving in with my very own eyes) and before the Clearinghouse ruled on him. Nonetheless, the Clearinghouse, which had originally declared Clark ineligible, reversed course and granted him eligibility. Clark went on to Villanova (a pretty good academic school), had no academic problems and helped make the Wildcats a powerhouse.

Gus Gilchrist was the next player to cross Yow’s path. Gilchrist had committed to Virginia Tech, but wanted out after the April 2007 massacre. The ACC and Tech granted him his wish, but told him that he’d have to sit out an entire season (which is typical) while losing that year of eligibility (which is not). Despite that, Gilchrist still wanted to come to Maryland. But the admissions office, with Yow’s assistance, didn’t allow Gilchrist to enroll until the fall. That meant that Gilchrist would not only have to sit out the 07-08 season, he’d have to sit out the first semester of the 08-09 season AND surrender a second year of eligibility. Gilchrist wisely chose not to do that. South Florida had no problems enrolling Gilchrist in the spring of 07, and he’s been a valuable contributor to the Bulls despite his recent injuries.

Bobby Maze was trying to transfer from junior college to a big time program in the spring of 07. The Suitland native was absolutely in love with Maryland. He even signed up for the message boards and talked to some of the more die-hard Terps fans. Right before becoming eligible, Maze’s grades were suddenly up for question. Again, Williams went to bat for Maze. The athletic department did not. A story broke, first on Terrapin Times, then on mainstream newspapers, that Maryland was going to deny Maze admission. The information came from a “source” within the athletic department. The story was printed before ANYONE, including Gary and Maze himself, knew that Maze wouldn’t be getting in to the school. Instead of smoothing things over or appealing the ruling, Maze was infuriated and decided to enroll at Tennessee. In his two seasons at UT, there hasn’t been whiff of academic trouble for Maze, and he currently averages 25 minutes a game and a 3/1 assist/turnover ratio for a ranked Volunteers team.

Futhermore, to help hurt the team, Yow “balanced” the budget in strange ways. With the state of Maryland, and the nation mired in a recession, cuts were coming to the university and athletic department. That’s hardly Yow’s fault. Yow decided to cut the budgets for each non-revenue sport by about 9%. She decided to cut the budgets for football and men’s basketball by about 5%. Again, no problem yet. Fair is fair. Everyone has to tighten up the belt sometimes. However, Yow cut the budget of the women’s basketball team by less than 3%. Everyone knows how chummy Yow and Brenda Frese are. Yow views Frese as her prized hire. Yow got plenty of credit for the women’s championship in 2006 and for hiring Frese in the first place. Yow also has strong ties to women’s basketball, being the younger sister of Kay Yow. But to protect women’s basketball while every other program gets cut by at least 5%? There’s no excuse for it. Are the women selling out their games? No. Are the women bringing in substantial income to department and university? No. Could fans even tell you half of the players on the women’s team? No. I have no problem with women’s sports, but they don’t run the athletic program financially. Until the women consistently sell out their games like the men, they should be treated like a non-revenue sport. If football and men’s basketball bring in the majority of the cash, that’s where the majority of the athletic budget should go.

So after somewhat succeeding with the first part of Operation Fire Gary, Yow sneakily went about the second part: getting the public on her side. As most know by now, Kay Yow tragically died of cancer last year. While at her sister’s funeral, Yow sent associate AD Kathy Worthington after Gary Williams. Worthington attacked earlier made comments from Gary about the unwillingness of the department to help get Maze and Tyree Evans in to school. Yow made Worthington do this knowing it would provoke the usually combustible Gary…and since she was at her sister’s funeral, Yow would theoretically get the sympathy vote from the public. Sure enough, Worthington’s comments did indeed provoke Gary in to this now famous quote:

"Kathy Worthington doesn't speak for me. She has never won a national championship. She has never done anything. She is an associate AD.”

"Why do they jump on me all the time?" Williams said of school officials. "It's somebody else's call. Who said University of Maryland's call? Nobody. Why can't I say that? This is just giving you guys stuff to make me look bad."

Because Gary was able to read through the B.S. He knew that Yow was behind this, and with his quote, avoided awarding public opinion to Yow. Gary called her bluff, and Yow was forced to come back from Kay’s funeral and issue a statement of support for Williams. The plan didn’t entirely backfire on Yow (since the blame was thrown on Worthington), but it didn’t work either. The fact that Yow used her sister’s funeral as a part of a plan to get rid of her popular head coach is just sickening.

So that’s where we are now. Yow has attempted to take on Gary Williams several times, and it hasn’t worked yet. This season gives Gary room to breathe, since Maryland SHOULD make the tournament with relative ease (knock on wood, knock on wood). With the loss of Vasquez next season, and the loss of recruit Terrence Jones (not Yow’s fault), it should be very interesting to see what happens in 2011 for Gary. On the other hand, Yow can’t afford a slipup. For some insane reason, she gave Ralph Friedgen another season to turn around the football team. That was very unpopular among Maryland fans. All these fights with Williams have proven one thing: that the majority of the fan base is firmly behind Gary and more and more fans are starting to become anti-Yow. The Chairman Yao nickname is rapidly becoming more popular and more appropriate. Also, university president (and Yow’s boss) Dan Mote is stepping down after this academic year. Mote has played middle-man between Yow and Gary for the last few years. He was a big supporter of both of them. So will the new president be so kind to Yow? Or will he/she see that all the good Yow did in the 90’s was quickly undone with bad budget decisions and bad public relations in the 00’s? Anyway, that’s my beef with Yow. She’s done some good for the university, but remember, she’s trying her best to get rid of Gary without it becoming a P.R. nightmare.

To the game tonight, I don’t think Maryland’s going to have another 26-turnover performance against Clemson. Despite those turnovers, Maryland was in the game the entire way and probably should have won. Even with Demontez Stitt back, there’s no way Clemson will force the Terps out of their game like they did in January. I expect Oliver Purnell to press again, but I also expect the Terps to be prepared for it this time. I’m not all that worried about Trevor Booker, but someone does have to box out Jerai Grant this time. Clemson, like every other ACC team, has struggled on the road this season. And if you haven’t been paying attention, Maryland is 6-0 at Comcast against the ACC (I know they needed the buzzer beater, but good teams find ways to win) and plays infinitely better at home than most in the conference. It’s also late-February, and this is right about the time the Tigers have taken nose dives in previous seasons. It will probably be close, but I think Maryland will do a better job protecting the basketball and won’t score only 53 points.

Maryland 76
Clemson 70

Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 3-2 during the weekend so I’m 38-14 overall.

Virginia Tech at Boston College
Call it a Dook-hangover for Virginia Tech or a better-than-their-record indicates Boston College team that usually plays well at home…just don’t call it an upset.
Pick: Boston College 68, Virginia Tech 65

Florida State at North Carolina
UNC gave no effort in either of their road games against Georgia Tech or BC. There’s no reason to think they’ll give any against an FSU team that is still desperate for a couple more wins.
Pick: Florida State 80, North Carolina 67

The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 2/22/10

2010-02-22T00:44:00.006-05:00

New set of rankings and brackets for you.

1. Kansas (26-1), LW-1: Not much has changed. They are playing the best basketball in the country.
2. Kentucky (26-1), LW-3: Finally starting to play some decent teams. Two good road wins for the Cats.
3. Purdue (23-3), LW-4: Other than Kansas, no team playing better right now. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the quality of their conference.
4. Syracuse (25-2), LW-5: Move up only because Villanova moves down. Still have them targeted to lose well before the Final Four.
5. Villanova (22-4), LW-2: The loss at Pittsburgh not surprising. Loss to UConn? Well, that shouldn’t happen to a team this talented.
6. Kansas State (22-4), LW-6: Chugging along in the shadow of Kansas and struggling Texas. Uninspired win over Nebraska keeps them at #6.
7. Duke (23-4), LW-7: Another impressive 1st half at Miami. Did I say impressive? I meant dreadful. Luckily, the Dookies got the calls in the 2nd half.
8. New Mexico (25-3), LW-8: I didn’t really believe they were the 8th best team in the country last week despite my ranking. Now I’m starting to.
9. West Virginia (21-5), LW-11: Finally put together two good halves against Providence, then reverted right back to playing one half against Seton Hall.
10. BYU (25-3), LW-12: Didn’t fool around last week against some of the lesser teams in the Mountain West.
11. Texas (21-6), LW-10: Rick Barnes needs to figure out if this is an inside team or a guard-oriented team. I still don’t know. Barnes still doesn’t know. That’s not a good thing in late-February.
12. Michigan State (21-7), LW-9: Spartans continue to sink in the rankings. Loss at home, to an overrated Ohio State team, with Kalin Lucas in the lineup, should be a red flag.
13. Vanderbilt (20-6), LW-13: Won’t fault the Commodores for 2-point loss to Kentucky. They did earn a good road win at desperate Ole Miss.
14. Temple (22-5), LW-16: They didn’t have any impressive wins, but teams ahead of them keep losing.
15. Ohio State (20-7), LW-18: Lost any real chance at a conference title with their loss to Purdue, but road win at Michigan State is good enough to bump them up in the standings.
16. Gonzaga (22-5), LW-14: Loss to LMU is the second time this season Gonzaga has lost focused in the WCC. This could be another first weekend flame out for Mark Few.
17. Georgetown (18-7), LW-15: Oh, I love seeing the Hoyas fall in the rankings. Maybe Little Racist III shouldn’t wait 25 minutes until getting the ball to Greg Monroe.
18. Texas A&M (19-7), LW-17: Arguably outplayed Kansas for 35 minutes, then decided not to score for the final five. Interesting strategy…needless to say, it didn’t work.
19. Pittsburgh (21-6), LW-24: With two wins over Marquette and Villanova, Panthers make the biggest leap in the rankings.
20. Butler (25-4), LW-22: No matter what happens, I can’t justify moving the Bulldogs much higher than this. They’ve been playing nobodies for the past two months.
21. Baylor (20-6), LW-19: Win against Texas Tech was probably enough to lock up a tournament bid. Loss to Oklahoma State helped the Cowboys get close to one for themselves.
22. Tennessee (20-6), LW-23: Their win over Kansas remains the only impressive thing the Vols have done this season.
23. Wisconsin (20-7), LW-21: Bad loss to Minnesota was followed by a near loss to Northwestern. Barely staying in my rankings this week.
24. Maryland (19-7), LW-NR: Gotta put the Terps in for three wins in six days. Fully anticipate taking them out next week since they’ll probably lose one of their next two.
25. Northern Iowa (24-3), LW-25: Panthers continue to play like a 6/7 seed that will lose to an average power conference team in the first round.

Next 5: Clemson, Richmond, Missouri, San Diego State, Xavier

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

Notes: Since Thursday, there have been a couple of changes. Florida and Rhode Island are both back in. Mississippi State is also in. Illinois, Mississippi and Dayton all come out. I debated for a good period about Wichita State, but decided to keep them in. They are walking a fine line the rest of the way. North Texas and Bucknell get in for leading their respective conferences.

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (7): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1): California
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (4): Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt: North Texas
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Campbell
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland

EAST REGION (Syracuse)
Milwaukee
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Robert Morris
(8) Wake Forest vs. (9) Louisville
Providence
(4) Temple vs. (13) Cornell
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Siena
Spokane
(6) Butler vs. (11) Virginia Tech
(3) BYU vs. (14) Oakland
Providence
(7) Missouri vs. (10) UTEP
(2) Villanova vs. (15) North Texas

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
New Orleans
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Campbell
(8) Florida State vs. (9) San Diego State
Spokane
(4) Georgetown vs. (13) Weber State
(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Old Dominion
Milwaukee
(6) Baylor vs. (11) Rhode Island
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Charleston
Jacksonville
(7) Northern Iowa vs. (10) Florida
(2) Duke vs. (15) Coastal Carolina

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Oklahoma City
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Bucknell/Jackson State
(8) California vs. (9) UAB
Jacksonville
(4) Ohio State vs. (13) Wichita State
(5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) Mississippi State
San Jose
(6) Maryland vs. (11) St. Mary’s
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Sam Houston State
Buffalo
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Oklahoma State
(2) West Virginia vs. (15) Morgan State

WEST REGION (Salt Lake City)
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) Stony Brook
(8) Richmond vs. (9) Georgia Tech
San Jose
(4) Texas vs. (13) Kent State
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Utah State
New Orleans
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) UNLV
(3) Vanderbilt vs. (14) Murray State
Oklahoma City
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Marquette
(2) Kansas State vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara

Maryland Basketball: Do Me A Favors

2010-02-20T12:27:00.001-05:00

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (18-8, 6-6 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (18-7, 8-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

There’s nothing wrong with grinding out a win. Especially on the road. It doesn’t matter how bad NC State may be. Road wins aren’t easy to come by, especially in this conference. Especially coming off less than 48 hours rest. There are only three teams that have three or more road conference wins in the ACC: Duke, Florida State and Maryland. So while you’ll get no argument from me or anyone else that Maryland certainly didn’t play all that well on Wednesday, they managed to do enough for the win. That’s all that matters at this point of the season.

Greivis Vasquez is going to be the name that stands out in the box score. He has 26 points to go along with six assists and four boards. Over the last five games, he’s averaged 24.4 points. If he’s not player of the year in the ACC at this point, then some of the voters should have their credentials revoked. Yet, as good as Vasquez was, there were other performances that were more important. Jordan Williams had a field day inside. 19 points and 11 boards against Tracy Smith…and every single point was needed. Every time State seemed destined to go on a run in the second half, Williams had an answer. Also contributing a strong performance was Adrian Bowie. After missing in action for the past three weeks (seven points combined in the previous five games), Bowie hit two crucial shots in the second half during Maryland’s run to take the lead. For whatever reason, Bowie has disappeared in conference play this season. He seems to have no confidence. He’s hesitating to take open shots and forcing shots that have no chance to go in. At times, he looks completely lost on the court. Hopefully the big baskets help get his confidence back to where it was at the end of last season. He can be a very valuable player off the bench, especially if Eric Hayes craps the bed like he did against the Pack (edit: learned after the fact that Hayes had the flu earlier this week…probably the reason for his rough outing). Finally, even though he didn’t play much against NC State, I need to give a late shout out to James Padgett. I neglected to mention Padgett after his effort against Virginia. He played a long stretch of minutes in the first half, making a couple of hoops and grabbing a couple of boards. When Williams gets in early foul trouble, Padgett is going to be needed off the bench. Good to see him finally getting some playing time.

So the Terrapins keep getting closer and closer to locking up a tournament bid. They aren’t there yet. Everyone thinks that two more wins, whether in the regular season or ACC tournament, would probably do the trick. I really don’t want to get started with all that. In fact, this season feels a little reminiscent of 2008. Maryland got off to a strong conference start (7-4), then collapsed over the last five games and missed the tournament. And the final five this season are BRUTAL. Two home games against talented but poorly coached Georgia Tech and Clemson, a road trip to Blacksburg, senior night against the Dookies and the finale at Virginia, where Maryland always seems to find a way to lose. Nothing about any of those five games screams easy win. The Terps have done a great job this season managing to avoid “must-win” games, or at least having must win games against bad teams (like the home game against NC State and Monday’s game against Virginia). Maryland hasn’t forced themselves into a position of going on the road and facing a must-win against a good team. But this is where that loss to Wake Forest comes back and bites the Terps. If Maryland was sitting at 9-2, then all they’d really need is one win. Even if they play poorly over the next five games, I have enough faith in the Terps to scratch out one win during that stretch. Heck, if Maryland plays like they have all season, then there should be no problem getting two or three. However, if the Terps start to hit the skids, they may find that tenth win to be elusive. The 8-3 record is good, but that 9-2 record would look really nice right about now.

The loss to Wake makes this two-game home stand very important. Maryland can’t lose both games. A split may even be a bit disastrous. The Terrapins certainly have the capability of beating Georgia Tech and Clemson (they played like ass at Littlejohn and still almost came away with a win), but they also have the capability to lose both of those games. A loss to Tech makes the Clemson game a must-win. So even though the Terps are 8-3 and are in great position in both the ACC and the nation, the game today feels a little like a must-win.

Coming into the season, I thought Georgia Tech had the potential to win the conference. The Yellow Jackets definitely have the best frontcourt in the ACC with both Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. Even with their current record, if I could take any combination of forwards from an ACC roster, it would be the Lawal-Favors monster. The two combine to average 25 points and 18 rebounds a game. They also average three to four blocked shots a game. Neither of them have the tendency to foul out. They are dangerous at both ends of the court. So with that in mind, how in the world is Georgia Tech 18-8 and only 6-6 in the ACC?

There are several reasons. The first and main reason has been coaching. Despite having two terrific power forwards, Paul Hewitt allows his guards to dominate the game. I’ve watched at least six or seven Tech games this season. Every time I watch them, I’m stunned by the inability of Tech’s backcourt to get the ball to Favors or Lawal. Not only that, I lost count of how many times the guards would hoist up bad shots and how many possessions Tech had where neither Favors or Lawal even touched the basketball. And Hewitt doesn’t prevent that from happening. If I was coaching Tech, and there were two or three consecutive possessions where my NBA-caliber power forwards weren’t touching the ball, and my guards kept jacking up terrible threes, I would call a timeout and bench my guards. Or at least spend the entire timeout blasting them until they understood that one of the big men had to get the ball in their hands every time down the court. Hewitt doesn’t do this. He kind of just sits and stares. Every once and awhile he’ll get up and point. He seems completely comfortable letting his guards make stupid plays. The sad thing is, Hewitt is a pretty good coach. Or was a good coach at one point. Don’t forget that he had Georgia Tech a couple of minutes away from a National Championship in 2004. I’ve been sort of stunned this season by his inability to get the most out of his team.

The Yellow Jackets are deep. Hewitt will play nine guys. Iman Shumpart, D’Andre Bell and Mfon Udofia (leave it to Hewitt to have at least one or two players on his roster that are impossible to spell) are the main ball-handlers. All three have seemingly hit a wall the last couple of weeks. Shumpart has scored in double-digits just once in his last six games. Bell has had four assists and 14 turnovers in his last five. Udofia has barely dented the score sheet in any category since the game against Division-2 Kentucky State on January 30th. Since none of these three like to get the ball to Lawal and Favors, and Hewitt doesn’t check any of them, they are the primary reasons that Tech has lost three of their last five and four of their last seven in conference.

Zachery Peacock is still in Atlanta, averaging ten points and four boards a game. Peacock is good enough to kill the opponent quietly while Lawal and Favors have good games. However, Peacock is not able to take a game over himself. Brian Oliver is the three-point guy. 127 of his 164 attempts have been from beyond the arc. He shoots close to 42%, and at 6’6”, can be a matchup problem (sounds like a job for Sean Mosley). Maryland can’t not lose track of Oliver, especially since he’s averaged 14 points over the last three games. Glen Rice Jr. and Maurice Miller have stepped up with Shumpart-Bell-Udofia struggling. Neither has played a lot this year, so their averages don’t look great. But Rice had a couple of nice games recently against Duke and Wake. He can also shoot from outside (47%). Miller has 23 points, ten boards and seven assists in the last two games and he only played 45 minutes. So while the big three guards have struggled, Hewitt has been able to dive into his bench to get quality minutes recently.

The Bees have been up and down all season. They’ve been swept by Florida State. They lost at Virginia and at Miami. They even lost to dreadful Georgia before jumping into their ACC schedule. Recently, Tech almost blew a 20-point lead at home to NC State. However, they own wins against Duke, Wake and Clemson…even though all of those wins have been at home. Wake and Duke have beaten Tech away from Alexander Memorial, and did so quite handedly. The Jackets only road win in conference was a two-point squeaker against UNC. Georgia Tech averages 75 points a game, but they’ve only broken the 70-point mark in two of their six ACC road games. Simply put, Georgia Tech struggles to score when they play away from Atlanta, and that’s the reason they are 1-5 in conference when they travel.

Tech is a big team, yet their rebounding margin is an even zero. In conference play, they’ve grabbed the same amount of rebounds as their opponents have. Lawal and Favors are the only ones who consistently grab boards. If one gets in foul trouble, the Jackets become a much easier team to beat (hint to Vasquez…please drive early in this game). The depth of the Jackets also worries me. As everyone following the Terps knows, this will be game #4 in eight days. How well Maryland’s legs hold up will be a huge factor. If Hewitt decides to go nine deep, and he should, then the Terps could be in trouble. However, Maryland has been lights out at home during conference play. This team has yet to have a nail-biter at Comcast all season. Plus, Maryland owns an eight-game winning streak over the Jackets. That’s the longest by any ACC team over another conference squad. So Gary has Hewitt’s number as of late. I think Tech has a couple of mismatches on the floor, but the home court advantage should propel Maryland to a key and close win.

Maryland 74
Georgia Tech 69

Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 3-0 during the middle of the week, so the conference predicting record continues to soar to 35-12. Here are the weekend games.

North Carolina at Boston College
This is a Saturday afternoon CBS game. I guess CBS couldn’t work out a flex schedule with the NCAA.
Pick: North Carolina 72, Boston College 66

Wake Forest at NC State
The Deacons have had an extra day to prepare. The Deacons have Al Farouq Aminu. The Deacons aren’t coached by a man who usually wears a techno-colored dream coat. Should be an easy win.
Pick: Wake Forest 77, NC State 63

Virginia at Clemson
Things have been going south for Tony Bennett and company. Safe to say the honeymoon is officially over. The Hoos were booed off the court after they were embarrassed at home on Wednesday.
Pick: Clemson 74, Virginia 58

Virginia Tech at Duke
The Dookies get back to Cameron, so even after their dreadful first half against Miami, things will be just fine for them. Plus, someone needs to knock the Hokies down a peg. No way this team should be 21-4.
Pick: Duke 80, Virginia Tech 68

The Predictor Tournament Bids & Brackets: 2/18/10

2010-02-18T15:30:00.002-05:00

Since I was bored, I decided to do a mid-week revisit for tournament bids and introduce my first bracket projection of the year. Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

Notes: Since Monday, I've had a couple of changes of heart. Florida and Rhode Island (losers of three straight) are out. Oklahoma State and Wichita State are in. Campbell pulled ahead of Belmont in the Atlantic Sun, so they replace Belmont with a bid. Bids are as follows:

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (7): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1): California
SEC (4): Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (4): Dayton, Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Campbell
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland

As for the brackets...a couple of obvious rules. Syracuse can't play at their own regional and Marquette can't play the first two rounds in Milwaukee. Despite being located in Spokane, Gonzaga can play their first two rounds at their home away from home, since Washington State is hosting the sub-regional. Not fair, but those aren't my rules.

EAST REGION (Syracuse)
Providence
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Lehigh
(8) Georgia Tech vs. (9) San Diego State
Spokane
(4) Baylor vs. (13) Cornell
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) St. Mary’s
Providence
(6) Tennessee vs. (11) Old Dominion
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Charleston
Jacksonville
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Illinois
(2) Duke vs. (15) Middle Tennessee State

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
New Orleans
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Robert Morris
(8) Missouri vs. (9) Florida State
Jacksonville
(4) Georgetown vs. (13) Utah State
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Wichita State
San Jose
(6) Pittsburgh vs. (11) UTEP
(3) BYU vs. (14) Sam Houston State
Oklahoma City
(7) Maryland vs. (10) Dayton
(2) Kansas State vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Oklahoma City
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Campbell/Jackson State
(8) California vs. (9) UAB
Milwaukee
(4) Temple vs. (13) Weber State
(5) Wake Forest vs. (12) Mississippi
San Jose
(6) Texas A&M vs. (11) Marquette
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Oakland
Buffalo
(7) Northern Iowa vs. (10) Virginia Tech
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Coastal Carolina

WEST REGION (Salt Lake City)
Milwaukee
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Stony Brook
(8) Richmond vs. (9) Louisville
Spokane
(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Kent State
(5) Texas vs. (12) Siena
New Orleans
(6) Butler vs. (11) UNLV
(3) Vanderbilt vs. (14) Murray State
Buffalo
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Oklahoma State
(2) Syracuse vs. (15) Morgan State

Maryland Basketball: Shoot High, Aim Lowe

2010-02-17T15:08:00.004-05:00

Maryland Terrapins (17-7, 7-3 ACC) vs.
NC State Wolfpack (14-12, 2-9 ACC)
RBC Center - Raleigh, NC

I don’t mind watching the Terps play every other day, but it’s not easy having to write about them at the same clip. There wasn’t much to say after the Dook loss and there’s not much to say after the Virginia win. Maryland wanted the game, Virginia clearly didn’t. The 19-point difference at the end couldn’t sugarcoat the fact that Maryland was about 30 points better than UVA. Once the Cavs fell behind by 10, they looked completely disinterested. For their part, Maryland at least complied and stepped on their necks at the end of the first half. Nice to see. Greivis Vasquez was unreal in the first half. I know most didn’t see the game, but trust me. I was in attendance and he was unstoppable. Virginia tried to guard him with five different players and none of them could do anything. He made his mind up that he was going to score at will and he did. Hopefully the NBA scouts can get their hands on the game film, because he looked like an NBA player on Monday.

Other than Vasquez, the most impressive thing from the Virginia game was the performance of Cliff Tucker. He didn’t do a whole lot offensively, but his defense was phenomenal. Sean Mosley was given the Sylven Landesberg assignment. Mosley picked up two early fouls and had to sit. Gary surprisingly replaced him with Tucker, whose defense is usually suspect. Tucker helped make Landesberg a non-factor in the first half and helped Maryland to their large early lead. If Tucker can play defense like that, then there is no question in my mind that he should be starting over Mosley. As good as Mosley is defensively, he’s been doing nothing on offense the last few games. He can’t even make open shots. In the last five games, he’s scored a grand total of 21 points on 9-of-26 shooting. Against UVA and the last game against FSU, he didn’t make a shot from the floor. He also has nine turnovers to go with eleven assists. But since he can play defense and scrap together a few rebounds, he’s held down the starting spot.

Tucker has proved over the course of the past month that he’s a much better defender than in the past. Futhermore, putting Tucker in the starting lineup gives a small Maryland team a few more inches of height. It also gives Maryland another player that can’t be ignored on the offensive end. Putting Tucker in the lineup means there’s one less opposing defender that can help out on Vasquez. Tucker is capable of hitting threes, and opposing coaches know it. Whereas whichever player guards Mosley is free to roam and double down, Tucker’s defender can’t afford to leave him alone. I’m not saying Mosley shouldn’t play. I’m not saying that Mosley doesn’t play an important role on the team. I’m just saying that over the course of the last five or six games, Tucker has earned a chance to start while Mosley hasn’t done a whole lot to keep his spot. If Tucker keeps getting 20 minutes a game, then it really doesn’t matter. However, it’s rare that any bench player for Maryland sees 20 minutes. Tucker only played that long against UVA because of Mosley’s foul trouble. It’s certainly worth an experiment over the course of the next couple games.

The Terps now play their third game in five days and make their second trip of the week to the Raleigh-Durham slums. Analyzing NC State is a waste of time. Those who are interested can go to my post last month before the first Pack-Terps game. Here’s the cliff note version: they are bad. When Maryland last played them, State was coming off a win against Duke (a loss that looks more and more ridiculous for the Dookies the further we get from it) and was a respectable 2-3 in the conference. Since getting blown out at College Park, the Wolfpack have lost six straight ACC games. Their only win in that span came against faux-Division 1 team North Carolina Central. Their loss to Georgia Tech was close, but the other five losses came by double-digits.

I guess I’ll spend the rest of the post making fun of Sidney Lowe. It’s become an annual tradition. Lowe is clueless. I still can’t believe that NC State backers ran Herb Sendek out of town after making FIVE straight NCAA tournaments. Sendek probably looks like Dean Smith now for Wolfpack fans. I know that Sendek didn’t play the most entertaining version of basketball. His 72-88 conference record wasn’t anything to brag about. He didn’t do a great job recruiting. He certainly had NC State playing fourth fiddle among the other three Carolina schools. But he was at least a half-decent game day coach. Look at his final five seasons at State: 23-11, 18-13, 21-10, 21-14 and 22-10. Five tournament bids. He won the opening round game four times. He made the Sweet 16 in 2005.

Compare that to Lowe. In his four seasons at State, the records look like this: 20-16, 15-16, 16-14 and 14-12. No tournament bids. Only one NIT invitation. 10th place, 12th place, 10th place and on his way to another 12th place finish in the ACC this season. He’s an abysmal 17-42 in conference play. And he wears a hideous red blazer to all the important games.

There was nothing to ever suggest that Lowe would be a good coach at the college level. He was 79-228 as a NBA head coach. That’s a 25.7% winning percentage. Other than Lowe being a former Wolfpack player, the coaching move from Sendek to Lowe didn’t make sense from the beginning. NC State screwed up its coaching search (going after John Calipari and Rick Barnes, despite having no chance to land either) and got stuck with Lowe. This should be a cautionary tale for those who still think Maryland’s better off replacing Gary. If you don’t have a better candidate lined up before you make the move of firing the current coach, you could get stuck with your fifth or sixth choice.

Things have gotten so bad for Lowe that his own players aren’t even defending him anymore. The only support he’s getting is from a recruit who been stuck playing for him yet. The story is beyond funny. There’s a good chance that Ryan Harrow never gets the chance to play for Lowe, but there’s still a good chance that he does. Either way, Harrow is certainly better off looking for a different school.

As for this game, the only thing stopping Maryland from winning is short rest. It’s the x-factor that could tilt the matchup to NC State. The Wolfpack have played one game the past week. They should be well rested. Other than that, all signs point to Maryland. In order for the Terps to win, they have to stop Tracy Smith. The Terps already did it once this season, as most of Smith’s 18 points up in College Park came in the second half when the game was already out of hand. Gary Williams owns NC State. Sendek would give him trouble every once and awhile, but even when accounting in the Sendek years, Williams is 33-11 against the Wolfpack. Gary is 6-0 against Lowe and all but last year’s ACC Tournament game have been decided by 11 points or more. Vasquez has also dominated the Wolfpack, scoring 15, 33, 17 and 19 in his last four games against State. As bad as the FSU crowd was, the NC State rednecks figure to be much worse in terms of their derogatory comments…a factor that usually helps Vasquez concentrate and play better.

Maryland must win this game. This is their last game of the season against any of the four bottom teams in the conference. None of the next five games are automatic W’s. Even on the road, this is as close to an easy win as you can find in the ACC. Maryland has to take advantage of it.

Maryland 74
NC State 62

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Just two games tonight. I lost track of my overall record, but I believe it is 32-12, give or take a couple of games.

Duke at Miami
Anytime the Dookies go on the road, there’s a chance for them to drop one. However, Miami may be the only team worse than NC State in the ACC. Wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not picking it.
Pick: Duke 71, Miami 56

Florida State at Virginia
The Cavs are on their predicted crash course to Earth. They’ll remain in the tailspin until jumping up and biting Maryland on the final weekend of the regular season.
Pick: Florida State 67, Virginia 63

The Predictor Top 25 & Tournament Bids: 2/15/10

2010-02-14T23:19:00.004-05:00

Rankings, but no pith. Teams that are in, but no bracketology. That’s what happens when Maryland plays three games in five days. Don’t blame me, blame the snow.

1. Kansas (24-1), LW-1
2. Villanova (22-2), LW-2
3. Kentucky (24-1), LW-3
4. Purdue (21-3), LW-5
5. Syracuse (24-2), LW-4
6. Kansas State (20-4), LW-6
7. Duke (21-4), LW-11
8. New Mexico (23-3), LW-12
9. Michigan State (20-6), LW-8
10. Texas (20-5), LW-9
11. West Virginia (19-5), LW-7
12. BYU (23-3). LW-13
13. Vanderbilt (19-5), LW-15
14. Gonzaga (21-4). LW-17
15. Georgetown (18-6), LW-10
16. Temple (20-5), LW-18
17. Texas A&M (18-6), LW-20
18. Ohio State (20-6), LW-23
19. Baylor (19-5), LW-21
20. Wake Forest (18-5), LW-24
21. Wisconsin (19-6), LW-14
22. Butler (23-4), LW-NR
23. Tennessee (18-6), LW-16
24. Pittsburgh (19-6), LW-NR
25. Northern Iowa (22-3), LW-22

Next 5: Illinois, Clemson, Maryland, Richmond, UNLV

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

Notes: I fully anticipate the Pac-10 getting two teams in this season. I know that it's absolutely the worst conference ever (or at least that's what every media outlet is telling you), but they'll sneak either Washington or Arizona State in there with Cal. And I don't see the Atlantic-10 getting six teams...just not gonna happen. Other than that, I leaned on the standings more then RPI. That's why Missouri is in over OK State, Marquette over the Big East backwash, Old Dominion over the crowded top in the CAA. By that reasoning, Virginia Tech has to be in even though they have very few quality wins.

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1): California
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (5): Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland

Maryland Basketball: I Left My Heart In Charlottesville

2010-02-14T19:41:00.000-05:00

Virginia Cavaliers (14-8, 5-4 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (16-7, 6-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Luckily, Maryland doesn’t have a lot of time to fool around after laying another egg in Durham. It’s not the loss that bothers me, since the Terps really couldn’t play any worse and the officiating couldn’t have been poorer (no free throws for the Terrapins in the first 25 minutes of the game - despite Maryland winning the points in the paint battle – should answer any questions remaining about ACC officiating protecting Ratface and company). What upsets me is that we made the 7’1” alien look like a competent basketball player. Some of his success was from the refs letting him go over the back on half his rebounds. The other half was Maryland refusing to acknowledge his existence. I don’t really blame them for that in the early going, since Ratface hasn’t acknowledged his existence for the past few seasons, but after his early success it may have been worthwhile to put an extra body on him.

Gotta move on. The loss wasn’t unexpected. The loss wasn’t season-shattering. Maryland put themselves in a position where they didn’t need to win at Dook, and the loss won’t really affect their RPI or seeding in March (Maryland actually went UP four spots in the RPI after the game). The only chance it has to ruin their season is if the Terps linger on it too much.

They can’t afford to linger on it because Tony Bennett and Virginia are serenading their way to College Park for a very short turnaround for both teams (and yours truly…hence the shortness of this post). The Cavaliers got tired of Dave Leitao doing relatively nothing other than accidently landing bass-ackwards into Sean Singletary. The Leitao regime followed an equally disappointing regime from Pete Gillen. Virginia really hasn’t been relevant since 2002. So when Virginia went way outside the box and hired Bennett from the hinterlands of Washington State, most around the league figured that the Hoos wouldn’t stand much of a chance in the ACC. Turns out they were wrong.

Virginia charged out to a 3-0 start in conference, and currently sits at 5-4. That’s puts them all alone in 5th place, which is about 7 spots higher than most had them (for the record, I at least put them ahead of NC State at the beginning of the season). Their in conference resume is not that different than Maryland’s. They’ve beaten NC State twice. They blew out the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. That’s been one of the big differences this year for Virginia. They have proven they can win on the road. One of the knocks against Gillen-Leitao was their complete inability to win a road game, even against terrible compeitition. The Cavs also have wins against Miami and Georgia Tech at home. They’ve also lost twice to the Hokies and twice to the Deacons, the most recent loss in overtime.

Out of conference is a different story. Most 5-4 ACC teams would be a strong NCAA Tournament candidate, but Virginia remains on the edge of the bubble because of what happened in November and December. They lost four games against BCS conference competition, but the losses came to USF, Stanford, Penn State and Auburn. Auburn is 150th in the RPI. Stanford is 166th. Penn State is 222nd and still hasn’t won a conference game. Their best win came against UAB. So that’s why UVA is only 94th in the RPI and probably a couple of big wins away from a sure bid. Their 97th ranked schedule strength isn’t helping.

Anyway, how good is Virginia? Better than everybody thought, but I’m still not sold on them being a NCAA Tournament team. Only their future game against Boston College looks like a sure win right now. Their three remaining home games are against Florida State, Duke and Maryland. Other than this road game, they still make visits to Clemson and Miami. I could easily see them ending up at 7-9 in conference, and that won’t get them close to the Big Dance.

UVA has played well in conference so far because of the maturation of Sylven Landesberg. Anyone who watched him last year could tell he was a future star…but I didn’t think it would happen by his sophomore season. Certainly not with a coaching change. But Landesberg is in or near the Top 10 of all the important categories in the conference. 18 points per game, 5.2 rebounds and 3 assists make him dangerous in several ways. He drives well. He shoots well from the floor. His passing skills may not be comparable to Singletary, but he’s getting closer. His free throw percentage is 83%. The only thing he doesn’t do extraordinarily well is shoot 3’s. His 34% three-point shooting is good, not great. He’s very streaky from beyond the arc, but because he can get hot, he’s always a threat.

The rest of the UVA crew is as follows. Mike Scott is their best post player. He scores 13.4 a game with 7.7 rebounds. Landesberg doesn’t need to shoot threes because UVA has three other guys who can do it. Sammy Zeglinski (42.5%), Jeff Jones (41.7%) and Mustapha Farrakhan (37.3%...and enter slightly racist joke here) can all do the job. Jerome Meyinsee is their scrapper. Every time I watch a Virginia game he’s coming up with two or three key rebounds and buckets. The rest of the lineup doesn’t contribute much or doesn’t play.

Bennett’s coaching style, at least so far, is comparable to Herb Sendek. He knows he has a couple of good players and a bunch of role guys. So he forces Virginia to shorten the contest, have long possessions, take timely 3’s, play defense, and generally makes every game an eyesore. But it’s working. The Cavs only average 69 points a game, but they only give up 61. This is a patient team that doesn’t turn the ball over a lot and tends to get good shots from close or midrange. Their low rebounding totals (35.4 a game) are suggestive of two things. No, UVA isn’t great inside. But they also shoot well as a team (45%) and don’t need to grab a lot of rebounds…at least on the offensive end.

So the Cavs are going to make this game ugly, and the Terps are going to have to be patient. I would really like to see Cliff Tucker inserted in the lineup for Sean Mosley, but because Mosley will probably matchup against Landesberg, that should wait a game. I think Tucker has definitely earned a chance, and Mosley’s offensive output doesn’t warrant the minutes he’s getting. But defensively, Mosley HAS to play against Landesberg because he’s the only Terps defender that can hang with. Other than being patient, the Terps have to shut down Landesberg early. Don’t let him get into a rhythm. Typically, Landesberg shoots a lot in the first half, then gets his teammates involved in the second after the defense adjusts. Mosley has to shut him down early. Shut down Landesberg, and the rest of Virginia will follow. This is a game Maryland must win. Not only for their place in the ACC standings, but for their tournament profile as well. The Terps usually struggle at Charlottesville, but fare well against UVA at home.

Maryland 68
Virginia 61

Maryland Basketball: Hanging With The Rat Pack

2010-02-12T13:10:00.004-05:00

Maryland Terrapins (16-6, 6-2 ACC) vs.
#8/7 Duke Blue Devils (20-4, 8-2 ACC)
The Durham Dump – Durham, NC

So much for overlooking Virginia. The second blizzard in a four-day span sent Tony Bennett and the Hoos singing back to Charlottesville (Like the Tony Bennett joke? Too bad, you’ll be seeing a lot more of them next week). For those who haven’t heard, the Maryland-Virginia game will now be played at 8 p.m. on Monday and found nowhere on TV. If you really want to watch on ESPN360, go for it, but I wouldn’t encourage using it. 360 is inconsistent at best. Game tracker and the radio are honestly better than that. Since I have tickets, I plan to be at the game. Then again, another 2-3 inches of snow are already being predicted for Monday afternoon and the prediction is probably only going to go higher. So maybe not.

There are pros and cons to the cancellation/rescheduling of the UVA game for Monday. One benefit is getting a few extra days to prepare for the Dookies (more on those dorks in a minute). We all knew Maryland was going to spend a few extra days preparing for them anyway, the postponement only assured the Terps they wouldn’t lose to Virginia in the process. I instantly feel better about both the Dook contest and the UVA game with the new-look schedule.

As for the cons, it forces Maryland (and the Cavs) to play four games in eight days. The real problem will be three games in five days. The Terps travel to the slums of Durham Friday, play on Satuday, jet back up to College Park for Monday’s game against Virginia, then go back down to the Triangle to play NC State Wednesday. Ugh. Obviously the Terrapins will be well rested for the Caffeinated Nerds. Virginia will be on the same short rest that Maryland will be, plus the extra travel should give the slight edge to the Terps. But the game at NC State, which looked to be as close to an automatic-win as a team can get on an ACC schedule, is now a lot tougher than originally hoped for. As is the Saturday game against another well-rested team in Georgia Tech. It took Maryland a month to play the first half of their conference schedule. Now it will take them eight days to play a quarter of it.

Maryland also loses some momentum. After going to Tallahassee and outlasting Lenny Hamilton and the Kitchen sink, then beating up on poor Roy and Carolina, it would have been nice to get Virginia as scheduled…even with the trip to Duke on the horizon. The players have been sitting around for days now, since Gary canceled practice on Wednesday and canceled the evening session on Thursday because of the gauntlet facing the team next week. Any momentum from those two wins has now effectively been doused.

As much as I can’t stand Debbie Yow (and maybe later in the year - possibly the next Clemson preview – we’ll get into why), and as obvious as it was that she forced both Maryland and Virginia into this decision because of potential lost revenue and NOT the safety and well being of fans or players, the postponement of the game was the right call. The Washington area saw blizzard like conditions for Wednesday afternoon and early evening, or right as most fans would have been making their way to the Comcast Center. It took me 15-20 minutes to walk from my apartment to work, which usually takes me five. I can promise you that Wisconsin Avenue is still not cleared off and was an absolute mess Wednesday. I can only imagine what the PG County roads looked like. So even though it looks as if the postponement will do more harm than good for the Terps, it was the right move by the University.

So with six days of rest, the snowbound Terps head south to the Durham Dump. They will find the Blow Devils up to their usual tricks of being overrated and hyped up by the national media to nauseating levels. But wait! This is a different Dook team! This team has height! This team can rebound! This team doesn’t rely on jump shots! True, false and very false. Dook is taller than in recent years, but look at who you’re talking about. Alien Space Captain Zoubek is quite possibly the most awkward man to every wear a uniform for Ratface (and that’s really saying something…may I remind you about this freak). Lance “I Got Five Fouls, And I’m Gonna Use Them” Thomas contributes absolutely nothing on either end. He probably won’t play because of a ankle injury suffered against UNC. And it might be better for Dook if he doesn’t suit up. Following in the footsteps of Clemson and Carolina, the Dookies even have their very own set of brothers. The Tweedle-Dumblee brothers are basically the same player. It’s not worth my time to differentiate between the two of them. I do know one of them is a typical Dook White Stiff Thug, since he was responsible for elbowing a FSU player in the face; taking advantage of the injury by dunking on the player and then finishing the play by taunting him. That was followed by a referee (most likely Karl Hess) calling a technical foul on the FSU player for running into Dumblee’s elbow with his face. I’m pretty sure it was Mason…but don’t hold me to it. One of the Dumblees is half-decent, the other is soft. In fact, Dook as a whole is very soft. But I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. These scumbags - protected by the officials - will cheap shot you all game. When one of your players pushes back (aka Dave Neal putting Nolan Smith to sleep last season), the punks flop to the ground like an injured soccer player and wait until the media gets up in arms about the poor Dook players. If the refs and ACC media didn’t coddle these guys, they might never grab a rebound.

Despite all the b.s. about Dook being physical and tall, this team still revolves around three players and still relies way too much on jump-shooting. Smith (a player I can sort of tolerate), Requisite White Stiff and Screamin’ Jon Scheyer are the only three players worth worrying about. Smith, when conscious, plays the game the right way. He’s averaging 17 points and three assists a game. He doesn’t just jack up any shot he sees. In my opinion, he is the most dangerous player on the floor since he does what the other two jerkoffs don’t. He drives to the hoop. He tries mid-range jumpers. He’s good at kicking the ball out to the perimeter. He plays defense. He doesn’t slap the floor like a monkey. He’s a tough matchup for a smaller guard and also one who is tall but slow.

Requisite White Stiff has played well as of late, but has struggled overall this season. As of a couple of weeks ago, there was even a resounding call from the Dook media to bench him. He is certainly one of the dumber players in the league. Despite being 6’8”, and being protected by the refs in most games, Frankenstein shoots 39% of his shots from beyond the arc. Landon Milbourne, a very similar player in both size and game, attempts only 11% of his shots from three. He does most of his work within 10-12 feet of the hoop, and only leads the entire ACC in shooting percentage during conference games. What’s the difference? Landon has a bit of a mean streak and half a brain. Singler should not be a matchup problem for either Milbourne or Sean Mosley in this game.

As for Screamin’ Jon, this is typical Dook creep that the media touts as conference player of the year only because he’s the projected best player on Dook. As of right now, I have Scheyer a solid fourth in the race for ACC POY. He’s well behind Greivis Vasquez, Sylven Landesberg and Al-Farouq Aminu at this point. I would even consider Gani Lawal ahead of the Screamer, since he puts up pretty good numbers on a team that refuses to get him the ball. Don’t believe me? Brainwashed by the typical Tobacco Road media? Let’s take a closer look.

For comparison sake, I’ll just run down his numbers with Vasquez’s, using conference games only (this is a conference award, not a national one). They both play the same position. They are both the leaders on their teams. Vasquez has 20.4 points per game, good enough to be tied for 2nd in the ACC with Landesberg. Scheyer has 18.8 points per game, or 4th place. Vasquez is in the Top 10 in shooting percentage (43%). The Screamer is not. Vasquez leads the conference with 6.9 assists per game, over half an assist more than the nearest player (Ish Smith). Scheyerface has 4.7 a game, which is 5th. Still with me? Good, let’s continue.

3-point shooting percentage, which is what Scheyer is supposedly known for, should be the category that gives him some sort of advantage. Except Vasquez is shooting 43% from long range, 3rd best in the ACC behind Eric Hayes and Malcolm Grant. Scheyer is well below him, shooting only 36.6%. Even White Stiff, who has struggled most of the season, is doing better than that. Vasquez makes 2.8 three-pointers a game, which is best the conference. Screamer is just behind him at 2.6. There are only two categories where Scheyer has an advantage over Vasquez. His assist/turnover ratio is slightly better (3rd best in the ACC as compared to 9th, but Hayes is better than both). Scheyer also has more steals per game than Vasquez. But even there, Scheyer is only 6th. Sean Mosley, who gets fewer minutes than the Screamer does, averages more steals per game.

There you have it. Even though I’d put good money on Scheyer winning the award because of the hate and xenophobia that Vasquez draws from the media (some of it deserved), there’s no way he deserves it at the halfway mark of the conference race. You could do a similar comparison with Landesberg. I could also easily argue Aminu and Lawal, even though they play different positions and a direct comparison really isn’t possible.

As for the game itself, Maryland seems to match up well with this team. Duke probably won’t have Thomas. Which means one of the Dumblees will start in his place. It actually looks as if both Dumblees will start, since the 7’1” alien has been on the short leash recently. So the frontcourt matchup will feature Milbourne and the suddenly-dominant Jordan Williams against a pair of Dumblees. I’m drooling at the idea of that.

The backcourt should be a little more even. With White Stiff and both Plumlees on the court, there isn’t enough speed from Dook to cover Vasquez, Hayes and Mosley. You can bet that Ratface will run the halfcourt hedge to at least slow Maryland down. If Clemson proved anything, it’s that the Terps can get flustered when they are pressured immediately upon crossing the timeline. Whichever Dumblee is forced to guard Milbourne will instantly be a mismatch that Maryland has to exploit. Milbourne MUST show up to this game. There cannot be any repeat performances from the one earlier in Littlejohn.

I can only assume that Hayes and Vasquez will switch up between the Screamer and Smith. As I said earlier, look for Gary to run both Mosley and Milbourne at White Stiff the same way he effectively ran both Byron Mouton and Chris Wilcox at the younger Dunleavy. The interior matchup will be determined by how the officials call it. If Jordan Williams is allowed to play, then he’ll be fine. If they let the Space Captain go over the back, let the Dumblees throw elbows, let White Stiff charge from half-court, then call ticky-tack fouls on Williams, obviously he’ll have no chance.

As for the bench and the coaching…well, both favor Maryland. The only thing Thomas provided was a slightly-warm body. Without him, Dook will play seven guys. The Bearded Alien and Andre Dawkins are the only ones coming off the bench. Dawkins is rarely let out of Ratface’s doghouse, so who knows how effective he’ll be. As I say every season, Ratface simply has no idea how to manage his rotation, and it will be Dook’s eventual downfall in March. He continues to recruit a billion All-Americans, but he has no idea how to use most of them. If Dook gets in foul trouble (I know it will never happen, just humor me), then where will Ratface turn? Smith, Screamer and White Stiff are all in the Top 5 of minutes played in the conference. You saw some of the effect it’s starting to have in the recent Duke-UNC snoozefest. The Dookies only managed to shoot 32% against one of the worst defenses in the country. I’m willing to bet most of that had to do with tired legs more so than Carolina’s D. Even with the upcoming schedule, Gary would be smart to let the Terps run up and down the court all day on these clowns.

Now, most reasonable fans will point to last year’s huge loss at Juan Dixon Stadium and figure that Maryland can’t possibly make up that much ground in one season. Well, the Dookies no longer have Sweet Elbows Henderson and the Terps no longer have to trot out Dave Neal at center. Dook has yet to replace Henderson’s output, while Maryland is getting three times the effort from Williams that they did from Neal. So that’s a huge step up in both directions for the Terps. The main reason Maryland lost that game in horrendous fashion was because of rebounding and second chance points. The Terps lost the battle on the glass 52-29. I can guarantee that won’t happen again this year.

Also, Maryland went to Durham last season struggling. Meanwhile, Dook was playing its best ball of the season. While Dook is currently playing well right now, they are nowhere near the 18-1 record they had last season. Maryland is playing, maybe even peaking too early, right now. This is a much different Maryland team confidence wise. Even over the course of last season, you could see Maryland making up the ground on Dook. After their beating in Durham, Maryland played even with Dook for 30 minutes at home just a month later. Only after the refs saddled Vasquez with foul trouble did Dook pull away. Then when they met in the ACC semifinals, Maryland played even with Dook for 35 minutes on a not-so-neutral court. Again, foul trouble helped Dook win by six. But confidence wise, Maryland has to feel like it’s back close to even ground with the Blow Devils.

The Floorslappers always play better at home than they do on the road. Something about all those uber-dorks and virgins reading cheer sheets gets this team all riled up. I’m sure they’ll be more dorked-out than usual with first place on the line. The Dookies haven’t lost at home all season, but this is still the same team that’s looked pedestrian on the road. Same players, same gameplan, just different colored uniforms. I still can’t get around the fact that Dook lost to NC State by 14. The same NC State team Maryland pummeled by 24 only three days later. This team is due for a loss at home, especially coming off a draining road win IN THE GREATEST RIVALRY IN MANKIND’S HISTORY (*forced by ACC blogger law to say that about any Carolina-Dook game, even though none of the sports fans I knew watched more than five minutes of it on Wednesday…more people actually watched the local hockey team than that supposedly big game). Then you add in the fact that Maryland has had six days of rest and a couple of extra days of preparation. Gary Williams, in his entire career, has lost only two conference games that he’s had six or more days to prepare for. That’s two games in 32 years. A lot of signs favor Maryland in this one. It will depend on how whistle-happy the refs are and how much the Terps have grown up from last season. No pick, just hoping for a Maryland win.

Elsewhere in the ACC…

After the weather allowed me to miss the midweek picks, I’m going to continue to mail it in. The picks, just the picks ma’am.

Clemson 75, Miami 61
UNC 80, NC State 69
Wake Forest 72, Georgia Tech 68
Virginia Tech 65, Virginia 58
Florida State 70, Boston College 60

The Predictor Top 25: 2/8/10

2010-02-08T19:35:00.000-05:00

Here we go, the weekly rankings. Hoping to have the first bracket next week. 60-40 as to whether or not it actually happens. Until that time, there should be enough mock brackets out in the ether to keep you happy. And unlike ESPN’s ridiculous poll, no Ivy League teams will ever be included in the Top 25.

1. Kansas (22-1), LW-1: Really no surprise here. May stay at #1 even if they lose to Texas.
2. Villanova (20-2), LW-2: Loss at Georgetown no reason to knock this team down. Will have to beat WVU to stay this high.
3. Kentucky (22-1), LW-3: That really tough SEC schedule is going to keep them in the Top 5 for awhile.
4. Syracuse (23-1), LW-5: They have a backloaded Big East schedule. We’ll know more about this team after Valentine’s Day.
5. Purdue (19-3), LW-7: Moves up because everyone else lost. Certainly not because their win over Indiana was that impressive.
6. Kansas State (19-4), LW-8: While Rick Barnes continues to under-achieve with a talented Texas lineup, the Screamin’ Martins continue to over-achieve with role players.
7. West Virginia (19-3), LW-9: These guys are eventually going to have to show up to a first half. They keep falling behind by double-digits, their loss total is going to climb.
8. Michigan State (19-5), LW-3: Without Kalin Lucas, this team is in real trouble. Home game against Purdue coming at the wrong time.
9. Texas (19-4), LW-6: Right now the Longhorns don’t know if they should be an inside team or an outside team. Loss at Oklahoma isn’t bad, but it showed a lot of potential problems for this team down the road.
10. Georgetown (17-5), LW-11: Pains me to raise them in the rankings even though they lost to USF on Wednesday. Win against Villanova and everyone else crapping the bed helps.
11. Duke (19-4), LW-14: Devils shouldn’t be considered a real threat since they can’t put on a decent performance away from the Durham Dump.
12. New Mexico (21-3), LW-15: Move ahead of BYU for best of the non-BCS schools. I would not want to play this team in the NCAA Tournament.
13. BYU (22-3), LW-10: Here because of loss two weeks ago to New Mexico combined with their loss last week to UNLV.
14. Wisconsin (18-5), LW-20: With as much as I usually poke at the Badgers, I’ve been very impressed with what Bo Ryan has done this year. They were dominating Michigan State before Lucas got hurt.
15. Vanderbilt (17-5), LW-13: The loss to Georgia not as surprising as the way they lost. They were beaten soundly from almost the opening tip.
16. Tennessee (18-4), LW-17: Still not impressed with the Vols. Can almost guarantee a loss to Kentucky later in the week.
17. Gonzaga (19-4), LW-18: Good week for the Zags…comfortable win against Portland followed by a cross-country trek and easy win over Memphis.
18. Temple (19-4), LW-12: Richmond is good, but allowing eight three-pointers in the first half was sort of embarrassing.
19. Georgia Tech (17-6), LW-16: This team could easily be a Final Four sleeper or a first round flameout. As soon as they commit to getting the ball inside, they’ll be fine.
20. Texas A&M (17-6), LW-NR: Aggies have won five of the last six in the country’s best conference. Win over Baylor puts them slightly ahead of the Bears
21. Baylor (17-5), LW-19: Bears have gotten into the annoying habit of winning one then losing one. Their last three losses have been to Kansas, KSU and A&M, so there’s nothing wrong yet in Waco.
22. Northern Iowa (21-2), LW-24: Got revenge over Wichita State to give them a cushion in the Missouri Valley.
23. Ohio State (18-6), LW-NR: How this team is in the Top 15 in every major poll is beyond me. It’s a one player team. Without Evan Turner, they looked terrible. Since he’s come back, they’ve beaten a bunch of nobodies and lost to WVU. Another Big Ten fraud.
24. Wake Forest (16-5), LW-NR: The latest ACC team to make my rankings…only to lose sometime this week and fall out. Good win at Charlottesville deserves some praise.
25. Rhode Island (19-3), LW-NR: The Rams are the hottest team in the Atlantic-10. They’ve won four in a row. Figured I’d get on the bandwagon now with a big week on the horizon for Little Rhody. They host Richmond then travel to Temple.

Next 5: Butler, Pittsburgh, Maryland, UNLV, Florida State

Maryland Basketball: Snow Patrol

2010-02-06T12:35:00.001-05:00

North Carolina Tar Heels (13-9, 2-5 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (15-6, 5-2 ACC)
Comcast Center, behind the mountain of snow - College Park, MD

Oh, hello there! I didn’t see you behind that snow drift. In case you didn’t know, it’s a tad snowy here in the D.C. area. Since I’m stuck at home until at least next weekend, and I probably won’t be able to find my car until St. Patrick’s Day, I guess that gives me plenty of time to update the page.

The residents of the Washington D.C. corridor are ridiculed almost nation-wide because we have a tendency to freak out over just the idea of an inch of snow (ask Brian Williams, who spent the first couple of minutes of the nightly news doing a standup routine). And I’m usually one of the first to start cracking jokes at the chicken-littles. I never mind snow, even a lot of it. I rarely, if ever, let it affect my life. I go outside. I drive in it. I really don’t care. Let me assure those outside the greater Capital area that this is no joke. This is no “sky is falling” routine. As of right now, the meteorologists are saying that 20 inches have already fallen…and we’re only about two-thirds of the way through the storm. So 30 inches maybe? That’s 45% of my body height. I stepped outside for the heck of it this morning, and the snow was already piled to my knees. Remember, this is an area that is ill-equipped to deal with a handful of flakes. Even though I live off Wisconsin Avenue, which is main thoroughfare to and from the District, I doubt I’ll be able to go much of anyway for a few days.

Fortunately Maryland made it back to town before the “snowpocalypse” or “snowmageddon” as the Post has taken to calling the blizzard. My personal favorite is “SNO-MG!!!”, but to each his own. The Terps returned from Tallahassee after a much needed road win. Maryland struggled again to shoot from the field, but did enough on the glass and enough defensively to counter that. Well, they did enough defensively on seven of the eight guys FSU put on the floor. For some reason, no one wanted to get a body on Derwin Kitchen. But that just goes to prove my theory that one player, no matter how good he is, can’t beat you by himself.

Let’s go to some quick kudos. Another sterling effort from Jordan Williams. He now has 27 points and 19 boards in his last two games while going against the Booker brothers, Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton. In the first half, Williams and Landon Milbourne were basically the only source of points for the Terps and kept Maryland in it until Greivis Vasquez could rescue them. Kudos also go to Sean Mosley. Looking at the box score, nothing jumps out at you. He only scored one point, four boards and three assists in 24 minutes. BUT it was his defense that was key. Mosley gave up four inches to Singleton, but made him a non-factor for most of the game. Very impressive defensive effort from Mosley. Also, kudos to Lenny Hamilton who failed to tell Singleton to hit the rim on this intentionally missed free throw. That rule has only been around since the 40’s. I haven’t seen someone try to do that since I was on the playground in sixth grade.

Finally, a tip of the hat to Vasquez. As former Times writer Patrick Stevens scribbled yesterday, Vasquez had to deal with a slew of racist taunts from the rednecks who attend that safety school. He poured in 23, including the go-ahead basket in the final minute and four free throws to seal the game. Despite Mountain-queer fans throwing crap on the court, to Virginia’s “crackhead parents” chant towards Juan Dixon, to the FSU idiots to the Dook fans with cheer sheets, it’s the Maryland fan base that continues to draw criticism because of ONE vile chant a few years ago. And it wasn’t even that creative or hurtful. But no, it’s completely fair to keep making a big deal about it and ignoring the rest of these disgusting groups.

Anyway, a job well done to Maryland who claimed their second ACC road win. As of today, Maryland is the only ACC team that’s +2 (which means they haven’t lost any home games and also have two road wins in conference). Everyone else is +1 or much, much worse. The win gives the Terps their second quality victory in conference. It also gets Maryland back to 3 games over .500 with two home games on the horizon. Big win. Very big win.

The North Carolina Tar Heels also braved the trip to Alaska (which Gary Williams infamously called Maryland a few years ago while referencing the ACC officials) since they left early Friday after their game in Blacksburg. These aren’t your grandfather’s Tar Heels. These aren’t you father’s Tar Heels. These aren’t even your one-year-old cousin’s Tar Heels. Less than 12 months after winning the National Championship, Roy Williams and UNC are on skid row.

For the first two months of the season, there was no real indicator that Carolina would have major problems this season. The losses to Syracuse, Kentucky and Texas certainly didn’t indicate anything. I think everyone knew that after losing Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and others that Carolina probably wouldn’t be returning to the Final Four. But UNC is now 13-9 and only 2-5 in the conference. In a year that 8-8 in the ACC probably won’t get you to the NCAA Tournament, the Tar Heels are in real trouble. Since the calendar turned to 2010, UNC has lost six of eight games. They started the new year by losing to College of Charleston. This isn’t the 1995 version of Charleston that snuck up on Maryland in the first round of the tournament and Bobby Cremins no longer possesses the talent he did at Georgia Tech. That loss was terrible for Carolina, but not season-threatening. UNC then subsequently lost at Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia and at Virginia Tech. The only wins they have in conference have come at home against the Hokies, and at pathetic NC State. The same State team that is 2-6 and can only blowout the Dookies. The Tar Heels still have two against their archrivals, still have road trips to Wake and Georgia Tech and still have a home game against FSU. And of course, they have this game on Sunday. They can only lose two of those games, or they probably won’t be dancing. That is a stunning plummet for UNC.

Two things can be pointed to as the reason for the nosedive. The first is injuries. Tyler Zeller has missed the last six games and will miss this one as well. Ed Davis has been banged up all season, and recently missed the home loss to Wake. The same can be said of Marcus Ginyard, the requisite eight-year senior that every ACC team seems to have. Ginyard has missed four games already. But despite the nagging injuries, the real problem has been North Carolina’s backcourt. It seems with all the great recruiting that Roy Williams does, he neglected to find a replacement for Lawson at point.

Larry Drew has been asked to step up at point. While the six assists a game are good, an average point guard could have six a game with the big men that UNC possesses. His three turnovers a game are more alarming. When he turns it over, the Heels typically lose. He had five against Charleston, five against Wake and seven against Georgia Tech. UNC as a team is averaging over 16 turnovers a game. As a team that forces plenty of turnovers, Maryland’s guards should be salivating at the chance to play this team.

On top of turning the ball over, the backcourt has had problems scoring. Drew only averages nine a game. Ginyard only averages eight. Dexter Strickland only six. As dependent as Maryland was last season on their guards, UNC is equally or even more dependent on their forwards this year.

Davis and Deon Thompson both average 15 a game and average 16 boards between them. The Wear Twins and John Henson struggled earlier in the season, but all three are starting to get more playing time and starting to round into form. You can count on all three of those freshmen playing better as the year goes on. As always, Roy Williams has a deep team. Maryland will probably see at least ten different players in this game. Despite the problems in the backcourt, UNC still manages 80 points a game and they shoot at a 47% clip as a team. They also grab 42 rebounds a game. Just because they are 13-9 doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have talent. They certainly have wave after wave of big men to come off the bench. They’ll certainly have the advantage on the glass in this game. They score at will inside. They block at least six to seven shots a game.

The weaknesses are more obvious though for UNC than in years past. The backcourt will certainly be a problem for them on Sunday. They shoot 67% as a team from the line and 36% from beyond the arc. The Heels have given up 70 points or more in five of their seven ACC games so far. Defensively, they are very suspect from the perimeter. Maryland should light them up from three and should be able to score plenty of baskets off turnovers. Maryland also has the experience advantage. Thompson and Ginyard are the only upperclassmen that see playing time. Furthermore, Gary has had Roy’s number the past few seasons. Maryland has won three of their last four against UNC, and those three wins came against Tar Heels teams that were in the Top 10 (not to mention Gary’s win over Roy’s Kansas team in the Final Four back in 2002).

The only x-factor will be the crowd. It could go one of two ways. Either no one shows up because of the weather, like the Villanova-Georgetown game. That means it basically becomes a neutral-site environment (which Maryland rarely fares well in). Or, the University does the smart thing and makes it a general admission game like they did during the 2003 blizzard when Wake Forest was in town. Comcast Center was completely filled, and UMD estimated that over 12,000 of the fans were students. It was the most hostile atmosphere I can ever remember seeing at a basketball game. Maryland crushed a very talented Wake team that night. There are plenty of students on campus right now with absolutely nothing to do. At least 25,000 if the University’s numbers are correct. Open up the doors and let everyone come in and sit wherever they want. As badly as Carolina needs this game, Maryland needs this one (and the Virginia game) even more. They need to keep the momentum going into the brutal final seven games of conference play.

Maryland 83
North Carolina 74

Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 3-1 during the week, and the only game I got wrong was the Maryland score. I can live with that. I’m now 22-10 overall in the conference.

Wake Forest at Virginia
Still not buying LegitVirginia. Bringing in Tony Bennett should not be making this much difference.
Pick: Wake Forest 65, Virginia 59

Duke at Boston College
Gary Williams take note. Dook is now the third team that has to play two games in 48 hours with the second game being on the road. Wouldn’t be surprised if BC jumped up and bit them.
Pick: Duke 76, Boston College 67

NC State at Georgia Tech
Bounce back game for the Jackets, another loss for Sidney Lowe. Nine games left until he is run out of Raleigh.
Pick: Georgia Tech 75, NC State 61

Clemson at Virginia Tech
There’s no doubt in my mind that Seth Greenberg is still celebrating the win over Carolina. He’ll allow Purnell and company to sneak out with a win.
Pick: Clemson 72, Virginia Tech 67

Miami at Florida State
Something tells me that Miami will guard Derwin Kitchen a little better than Maryland did. They’ll also have no answer for both Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton.
Pick: Florida State 68, Miami 58

Super Bowl XLIV: Don't Get Defensive

2010-02-05T12:54:00.009-05:00

New Orleans Saints (15-3) vs.
Indianapolis Colts (16-2)(-5)
6:30 p.m. Sun Life Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Super Bowl XLIV

Brett Favre…gone! New Jersey’s second team…gone! Dallas, Baltimore, New England and every other despicable team…gone! What a matchup this is. I don’t think I’ve been as excited for a Super Bowl since the Redskins were last here 18 years ago. Honestly, this is an outstanding game. If you love the NFL, then this is the game you wanted to see. Brees and Manning. Wayne and Colston. Reggie Bush. Dwight Freeney. The most efficient offense in recent NFL history against the highest scoring offense this season. On one sideline, there’s a team from the heartland with a quarterback trying to cement his legacy as one of the greatest of all time. On the other sideline, a team from New Orleans that is so emotionally tied to a city trying rebuild from scratch. So without further ado, we move on the game itself to try and find a winner.

When the Saints have the ball:

The Saints offense was otherworldly during the regular season. They were easily the top team in the NFL when it came to points scored and yards gained. New Orleans accomplished that by going to the air early and often. There were so many weapons for Drew Brees to choose from. Marques Colston was the big name. Add in Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore, and you see why it was so difficult to cover everybody. And that’s before we factor in Bush as a passing threat, Jeremy Shockey as a possession receiver/tight end and the running game with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. There was no defense in the world that could slow down this team.

Then injuries started accruing on the offensive line. All three running backs suffered a variety of bruises. Shockey limped around the second half of the season. Moore seemed to disappear from the offense completely. All of a sudden, you had Brees playing behind a banged up offensive line. He had a hurting running game and a hurting safety net (Shockey). Colston drew double teams. With the line banged up and the running game a non-factor, Brees had little time to throw the ball and only one or two options to throw to. The Saints dropped their last three games of the season and looked completely average while doing so.

Just one of the weapons for Drew Brees.

The New Orleans offense rebounded during the playoffs thanks in large part to the medical staff and the running game. Bell and Thomas are running almost as well as they did early in the season. The Saints are averaging 119 yards per game on the ground in the playoffs. Even though the New Orleans offensive line is still banged up, Brees has started to exhibit his old form since opposing teams can no longer play solely against the pass. Even though they’ve turned the ball over a few too many times, the Saints have scored 76 points in two playoff games. Pretty darn good.

The Colts defense is always the forgotten unit. It’s hard to consistently play second fiddle to your all-world quarterback. But the Colts D has shown up for six of their eight postseason quarters. They shut down the Ravens’ miserable attack and limited them to three points. After letting the Jets go up and down the field in the first half of the AFC Championship, they didn’t give them anything on the scoreboard in the second half. It will not be easy for the Saints to establish a run game against this D.

Fortunately for New Orleans, they are not tied to the running game like Baltimore and New York were. Just the threat of Bell and Thomas should give Brees more time to throw the ball. Other than Dwight Freeney, whose health status remains unknown, the Colts have a hard time putting pressure on the quarterback. The secondary has the potential to be good, but they’ve only shown it against Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. In other words, they’ve done well against above average quarterbacks. Brees is obviously much better than either of them. I think we can use the NFC Championship as a bench mark for this game. I think the Saints will have a similar day (24-31 points, 300 or so yards and couple of turnovers) in Super Bowl XLIV.

When the Colts have the ball:

The Saints are going to blitz. They are going to blitz from every angle. They’ll use every player on the field. Just ask Favre. I’ve never seen Favre hit so many times in one game in his entire career. The Saints come after you, and they are usually effective.

The Colts have Manning, who avoids just about every blitz easily. The Jets hit Manning for the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game. Then Manning and Indy adjusted. That ended any chance the Jets had of winning. It’s the Catch 22 of playing Manning. If you blitz, he’ll adjust and make you pay with short crossing routes. If you lay back, he’ll pick your secondary apart. There has never been a blitz, or a defense scheme for that matter, that’s proved to be effective against Manning.

While in Tennessee, Gregg Williams had no luck stopping Peyton Manning. I doubt his fortune will improve much Sunday.

So we know the Saints will blitz. We know Manning will adjust. The question is how many hits can the Saints lay on Manning before he does. Considering the amount of weapons the Colts have, it probably won’t be many. We all know about Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Austin Collie continues to emerge as an outstanding possession receiver. Pierre Garcon has also made marked improvement in the postseason. During the regular season, Garcon struggled. He dropped plenty of passes. He ran routes poorly. But he looks like an entirely different player in the playoffs. Since Garcon is of Haitian decent, that’s the story that all the broadcasts have focused on. Admittedly, it’s a great story of a native son bringing attention to the devastation in his homeland by playing football. The story that’s being missed is how Garcon has improved as a football player the past few weeks. He gives Manning and this already stocked offense another weapon.

The Colts have proven that they can score against any defense. New Orleans has shown that they can get to any quarterback (Favre, Kurt Warner). I’m going to trust Manning’s long and proven history in big games over Gregg Williams’ unproven defense. The Colts are going to score, maybe not early, but they are going to put plenty of points on the board. Williams’ defense is too aggressive for its own good. Indianapolis will pull off at least two big scoring plays and at least two long and sustained drives. The ball-hawking skills of Darren Sharper and Jonathan Vilma will be neutralized. The Colts offense will be just fine.

Intangibles:

This is the one area of the game that should favor the Saints. If this becomes a battle of wits between Sean Payton and Jim Caldwell, the edge goes to Payton. Then again, the running joke all season surrounds the role of Caldwell. Does he really coach the team? What does he look like? Does he even exist? Peyton Manning is looked at as more of a coach and a leader than Caldwell. And for the Colts offense, that’s actually true. So if it comes down to Payton and Peyton, then the coaching edge is a little more even. Other than that, the Colts kicking and punting game (not that they use it a whole lot) is better than the Saints. Despite what he did two weeks ago, I would not want to trot out Garrett Hartley with the game on the line. I’d rather have God’s Kicker from 40 yards or closer. The return game does favor New Orleans. Whether they trot out Reggie Bush or Courtney Roby, the Saints are probably going to need a couple of big special teams plays to pull this one out.

Is this Jim Caldwell? Seriously, I don't know.

All signs point to a Colts win. The injury to Freeney will certainly help the Saints some. If there’s any advantage in the crowd it should go the Saints way. They are America’s Team right now. Other than that, everything points to Indianapolis. It really comes down to this: which team is better at consistently scoring points. As we’ve see, the Colts offense can’t really be stopped. They scored 47 points against two of the better defenses in the league (statistically, the Jets owned the best defense in the NFL). Indianapolis can turn it on virtually at will. When they absolutely need a touchdown drive, Manning usually delivers.

As good as the Saints offense has been all season, they have struggled to score consistently. The only real success New Orleans had against Minnesota is when Favre and Vikings receivers coughed up the ball five times. Most of the Saints points came off turnovers instead of sustained drives. In fact, because of the takeaways the defense has forced all season, the Saints scored more points off turnovers than any team in the league. Left to their own devices, New Orleans’ offense is certainly dangerous, but simply not at the caliber of the Colts. Futhermore, the Saints blitzed Favre all game long. They battered him badly. Despite the pounding, Favre still managed to throw for over 300 yards and had a pretty decent game. Again, if it wasn’t for fumbles and Favre’s really, really dumb pass, then Minnesota probably wins that game. Since Manning is infinitely better at this stage of his career than Favre, I would expect an even better game from him if New Orleans goes with a similar attack plan.

If Indianapolis doesn’t fumble the game away, the Saints aren’t likely to go out and win the game themselves. And if you haven’t seen the Colts lately, they rarely turn the ball over. New Orleans will have to earn this win themselves. The Saints will score, but not enough to keep up with a Manning-led offense. As I predicted back in early September, the Colts will win their 2nd Super Bowl in four seasons.

Colts 38
Saints 27

Maryland Basketball: Two's Not Better Than One

2010-02-03T14:14:00.002-05:00

Maryland Terrapins (14-6, 4-2 ACC) vs.
Florida State Seminoles (16-5, 4-3 ACC)
Donald L. Tucker Center – Tallahassee, FL

Let’s face it; Maryland was probably due for a performance like the one on Sunday night. Not saying that makes it easier to take, and it certainly didn’t make it easier to watch, but they were long overdue for a game like that.

The 26 turnovers are definitely worrisome. Especially against a backcourt that was missing its best player. Clemson gave the rest of the league a blueprint for how to handle Maryland’s five-headed guard tandem. Press the daylights out of the Terps in the fullcourt. In the halfcourt, allow a guard to drive, then collapse on him and force a bad pass. That worked perfectly for the Tigers. It frustrates a player like Greivis Vasquez enough to force two early personal fouls and get him off his rhythm. It frustrates the rest of the guards, who can all move the ball around the perimeter, but struggle to pass in tight spaces. It frustrates the fans who have to watch Maryland literally hand a game to an inferior opponent.

Let me try to focus on some positives. The first, and most obvious, is the play of Jordan Williams. The kid was a stone-cold stud against Trevor Booker. 13 points, 13 rebounds and great defense from him. If either Landon Milbourne or Dino Gregory bothered to show, Maryland would have had a much better time on the boards and may have won. Again, Gregory’s suspension earlier this season may have been a blessing in disguise. It forced Williams to play more minutes than he should have, but it prepared him for the conference season. The more I see of Jordan, the more I like.

The other positive is that Maryland didn’t roll over facing a double-digit second half deficit on the road. Like I said after the Wake Forest game, the Maryland team from last season would never have gotten back in the game after trailing by 10 or more in the second half. The Terps not only got back in the game, but systematically chipped away at Clemson’s lead over an eight minute period. They even took a 48-46 lead themselves. I was sure that Maryland would win once they grabbed the lead. Unfortunately, Maryland started turning the ball over again, so it didn’t happen. But just like the Wake game, the Terrapins hung around and hung around during an off night and almost stole one on the road. Eventually, they’ll have to win a game or two like that. But for now, I’m happy with the way Maryland competed and stayed in the game for most of the second half.

I could go on and on about how sloppy Maryland was, or how they abandoned the team rebounding effort that helped them to a 4-1 conference start, or how everyone started missing shots at the same time (like back in November and December). But there’s no point. You all saw the game. I’m not going to uncover anything ground-breaking in the box score. Maryland played terribly, still had a chance to win the game, but couldn’t. It wasn’t a bad loss. Clemson is no slouch at home. The Terps are still two games over .500 in the conference. Let’s move on.

For the second time this season, and the second time in the last three weeks, Maryland takes on Florida State. The ACC schedulers are at it again. Maryland has yet to play Virginia, UNC, Dook, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech and they’re already facing FSU twice. That is just silly. I understand my dream of a 22-game round-robin ACC schedule is never going to happen. But shouldn’t the schedule-makers force everyone to play once before starting the half-ass home-and-homes? Maryland’s second game against FSU shouldn’t come before the Terps play Virginia Tech once. Also, the only game against Tech shouldn’t be on the last weekend in February. It’s simply not fair. For example, let’s say that Solomon Alabi had been hurt since New Year’s. He’s scheduled to come back by mid-February. That means Maryland and Georgia Tech get to play FSU twice without their best player before Wake is scheduled to play FSU. If Alabi or Player X returns before that March 3rd game, then how is that fair for either Wake or FSU? And the roles can obviously be reversed. Malcolm Delany has been banged up and struggling for the Hokies this season. But by the time Maryland rolls into Blacksburg on February 27th, they’ll be forced to play a healthy Virginia Tech while every other team in the conference got a shot at the Hokies with Delaney at 70%. If every ACC team is forced to play everybody else before starting their home-and-homes, this issue would be less of a problem.

Since losing in College Park on January 10th, FSU has gone 3-2. They have snuck out wins at home against both Techs and grabbed a 4-point road win at BC. They also got handled in Durham and dropped one on their home floor to NC State. So like we’re seeing throughout the entire conference, FSU’s performance this season has been a mixed bag. The only other difference for the Seminoles is the absence of Jordan DeMercy. DeMercy announced he was transferring earlier in the week, and left the team. So without DeMercy, and with Xavier Gibson still strapped to the bench, Leonard Hamilton will basically be forced to go to with a 7-man rotation the rest of the season.

FSU is still deep on the frontline. Alabi, Ryan Reid and Chris Singleton are all still healthy and contributing. In Maryland’s win, the Terps managed to get Alabi in early foul trouble. He still managed 17 points and 9 boards, but he only played 25 minutes. Most the time spent on the bench was in the first half and Maryland was able to open up a 14-point lead as a result. The Terps have to attack the hoop again and they need to get either Alabi or Singleton in foul trouble if they want any real shot at winning.

I want it known that I picked FSU to win this game before Maryland lost to Clemson. I even said so in my game post. So don’t assume that I’m just jumping on and off the bandwagon based on one game. That said, this week is CRUCIAL for the Terps. Maryland must beat UNC at home. That game certainly looks much easier than it did at the beginning of the season, but the Heels are still talented and Maryland could lay an egg at any time. I also feel that this is pretty much as close to a must-win for Maryland without it actually being one. I’m not too psyched about the possibility of facing UNC on a two-game losing streak.

However, I have no confidence that Eric Hayes will go 5-6 from behind the arc like he did in the first game against the Noles. I’m doubting that he’ll chip in 17 points again. So even if Vasquez equals his 22-point performance, the Terps are going to have to get contributions from elsewhere. Sean Mosley only had six points, and Adrian Bowie didn’t score in only 11 minutes, so those are two possibilities for Maryland. But away from the Comcast Center, Maryland has shot very poorly this season. I doubt they shoot 34% like they did at Clemson, but I don’t think they’ll shoot 47% like they did in their win over the Seminoles. The happy medium is more likely. Add in a better performance from Alabi and Reid, and Maryland’s season could come down to their game on Super Bowl Sunday. I hope I’m wrong.

Florida State 74
Maryland 68

Elsewhere in the ACC …

I went a bizarre 2-2 over the weekend (getting the two games I wasn’t sure on and missing the two games I was sure about). Combined with my Wake pick last night, I’m now 19-9 on the ACC season.

NC State at Virginia
I guess the question is how long will it take before everyone starts taking UVA seriously? This game against Dead Man Walking and the Wuffies aside, my answer is at least another couple of weeks.
Pick: Virginia 75, NC State 65

Georgia Tech at Duke
Even though the Yellow Jackets won the first meeting pretty handedly, the calls always seem to even Dook’s home-and-homes out. Especially when the second game is at the Durham Dump.
Pick: Duke 72, Georgia Tech 61

North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Until further notice, UNC is not to be treated like the defending champions, and should be treated like the 2002-03 team that was struggling to be rebuilt by Matt Doughty.
Pick: Virginia Tech 70, UNC 67

The Predictor Top 25: 2/1/10

2010-02-01T19:31:00.000-05:00

With a Super Bowl preview and two Maryland write-ups this week, you only get the rankings from me. Sorry there’s no pith or witty banter. Hopefully that will return next week.

1. Kansas (20-1), LW-1
2. Villanova (19-1), LW-3
3. Michigan State (19-3), LW-5
4. Kentucky (20-1), LW-2
5. Syracuse (21-1), LW-6
6. Texas (18-3), LW-4
7. Purdue (18-3), LW-8
8. Kansas State (17-4), LW-7
9. West Virginia (17-3), LW-11
10. BYU (21-2), LW-10
11. Georgetown (16-4), LW-9
12. Temple (18-4), LW-12
13. Vanderbilt (16-4), LW-20
14. Duke (17-4), LW-13
15. New Mexico (20-3), LW-21
16. Georgia Tech (16-5), LW-18
17. Tennessee (16-4), LW-15
18. Gonzaga (17-4), LW-14
19. Baylor (16-4), LW-22
20. Wisconsin (16-5), LW-16
21. Missouri (16-5), LW-23
22. Florida State (16-5), LW-NR
23. Pittsburgh (16-5), LW-17
24. Northern Iowa (19-2), LW-NR
25. UAB (18-3), LW-24

Next 5: Clemson, Butler, Mississippi, Wake Forest, Xavier

Maryland Basketball: Oliver Twist

2010-01-30T12:39:00.005-05:00

Maryland Terrapins (14-5, 4-1 ACC) vs.
NR/#21 Clemson Tigers (15-6, 3-4 ACC)
Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC

I could get used to winning by 20+ points. I really could. I would run out of things to complain about, but I bet it would be worth it.

Let’s see…comfortable 1st half lead combined with convincing 2nd half. Check. 17 made field goals in the first half vs. only 16 attempted field goals by Miami. Check. Not fooling around with a less talented team. Check. Greivis Vasquez having another great game while at the same time not forcing the office to be reliant on him. Check. Jordan Williams showing more signs of growth while playing against a polished big man. Check. Double-digit efforts from several players. Check. Team rebounding. Check. Dominating the hustle stats. Check. Sole possession of first place in the ACC standings. Big check.

You really have to nitpick to find something to complain about. The only thing that worries me right now has been the rotation. Despite the chance to go nine-deep, Gary is only applying an eight or even seven-man rotation now. James Padgett has nearly disappeared. At times, Dino Gregory and/or Adrian Bowie have seen a severe decrease in minutes. Sure it’s working now. But if we never learn anything else from Ratface and the Nerds, it’s that a deep bench is a necessity in college basketball. Like the past five seasons, the Cheer Sheeters are trotting out a seven-man team. By Valentine’s Day, expect the shooting percentages to go way down (even though they aren’t that high to begin with). So that should be a warning to Maryland. A seven-man rotation may be working now, but be very careful when the calendar flips to February.

Playing two games a week against conference competition can certainly wear down a team. Right now the Terps check in with at 48.7% from the floor. That’s over 50% in conference play. Those numbers will certainly go down (mostly because Maryland, or any other team, can’t possibly shoot 50% an entire conference season). However, that number will plummet if the Terps don’t go with a consistent eight-man rotation. Nine would be preferable. I’m not saying that Padgett deserves 20 minutes a game. But right now he’s averaging almost 12 minutes per game overall and only 6.5 minutes per game in conference play. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be getting 10-12 minutes. Bowie’s numbers have fluctuated as well. Twice he’s seen only 11 minutes per game in conference play. He and Cliff Tucker need to play a minimum of 15 per conference contest so Vasquez and Hayes are able to keep their legs rested. Again, it’s nitpicking now. But if the trend continues, there could be problems as soon as mid-February.

The only other thing that I can complain about it the schedule. Obviously there’s nothing Maryland can do about that. But despite the 4-1 conference start, you’ll have a hard time finding analysts who believe the Terps have staying power. Let’s be honest, their four wins haven’t come against the best the ACC has to offer. At least that’s the thought process this week. The definition of a good ACC team in the 09-10 season changes week-to-week. The home win over Florida State was solid. No one’s going to argue that right now. The other three wins have come against Boston College, NC State and Miami. It appears that Miami is on their way to a last place finish. NC State made noise last week against Duke, but that appears to be the exception for Sid’s Kids this season, not the rule. State also seems to be on their way to another Lowe finish. BC was also ticketed for a 3-13 conference finish a few weeks ago, but the Eagles are already at 3-4. So the win against Boston College, on the road by 16, is starting to look better and better. Especially after BC’s win over Clemson.

Ah, Clemson. This game was supposed to mark the beginning of a tough stretch for the Terps: at Clemson, at FSU then home against UNC. We know FSU is decent. The Heels are much better than their record indicates. But what about the Tigers? Like most of the conference, the answer to that question at this point is a resounding “I don’t know”. Out of the conference, Clemson has lost to Illinois and Texas A&M. They own a one-point win over Butler. Their win over South Carolina looks a lot better this week than it did last. The Tigers three conference wins come against BC, NC State and UNC. Very similar to Maryland. They’ve also lost to BC, been beaten twice by the Dookies and lost a close one to Georgia Tech. In other words, Clemson has beaten the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the ones they should have lost to. With the exception of Boston College.

The game against Tech was Exhibit A of why Oliver Purnell is a terrible coach. The game was tied with about five seconds remaining. Georgia Tech had the ball and Paul Hewitt called a timeout. During the timeout, the first and last thing I would tell my team as head coach would be no fouls. Don’t put Tech at the line with the game tied. What does Clemson do? Foul. They lost by two. You could try to blame it on the players, but this type of stuff happens way too regularly at Clemson.

Just like the annual January swoon. This is at least the fifth year in a row that the Tigers have started the year great, earned a high ranking, and tanked the conference schedule. The first two seasons Clemson bottomed out so badly that they missed the NCAA tournament. That includes the 2007 season, when the Tigers started 17-0 and were the last undefeated team in the country. They finished 21-10 and went to the NIT. The last two seasons, the Tigers have managed to do just enough in conference play to make the NCAA Tournament. However, they have yet to win a tournament game. They lost to under-seeded Villanova two years ago, and blew an early lead to awful Michigan last year. There has been way too much talent in Clemson the last few years for this team to only be 0-2 in NCAA Tournament play. The one constant is the coach. Purnell, who doesn’t fall far from the Gary Williams coaching tree, has routinely been a bottom-half of the league coach.

That doesn’t mean that Purnell can’t recruit. He’s proven that he can. The Tigers team from two seasons ago was loaded. Cliff Hammonds, KC Rivers and James Mays were all on that squad. How none of them ever won a tournament game can be explained by the coaching staff. Purnell has now had Demontez Stitt for three seasons and Trevor Booker for four. He’s even started a pipeline to the Booker family. Devin Booker is now a freshman for the Tigers. It’s my understanding that there are at least two more Booker kids on the way. So Purnell has talent. He just doesn’t know what to do with it.

This season, Clemson has been too reliant on the elder Booker and Stitt. That’s been a problem recently since Stitt’s been battling a foot injury for the past month or so. He missed the BC game earlier in the week. Even if he plays, and there’s no guarantee that he will, he certainly won’t be able to attack the rim like he usually does. If Stitt can’t attack the rim, then he’s no better or no more dangerous than a regular point guard. Andre Young will start in his place if Stitt can’t go, and Young isn’t scaring anybody in the ACC yet. And as good as Clemson is inside, if Stitt can’t get Booker and company the ball, then the only way Booker can make an impact is on second chances.

Still, Maryland has lost two in a row to this outfit. That includes a major beatdown last year at Littlejohn. The Terps haven’t been able to handle Clemson’s size the past two years. As soon as Maryland collapses inside, the Tigers kick the ball out and start hitting threes. Fortunately Terrence Oglesby isn’t in South Carolina anymore, but Young, Stitt and David Potter are all decent shooters. Clemson still poses several matchup problems for Maryland, the most concerning being Booker’s athleticism and skill inside.

It will be interesting to see what Maryland does in a true road environment (BC’s half empty arena and the sometimes tomb-like atmosphere at the Joel don’t count). Littlejohn has gotten a lot of hype of the last few weeks, some of it undeserved. I never thought that it was a tough place to play, especially considering how many game the Tigers lost there in the late-90’s and early-00’s. But Littlejohn will be full and it will be loud. Other than then their trip to Bloomington, the Terps have avoided tough opposing arenas so far this season.

It will also be interesting to see how the Terps respond if they fall behind early. Maryland has cruised the last few weeks thanks in large part to big early leads. If they are trailing at halftime, or in the second half, can they recover like they did against Wake? Or was that more of a fluke? Last season, Maryland had a knack for falling behind by six or seven points, then forcing bad shots or passes to make the hole deeper. That didn’t happen against the Deacons, but did happen against Cincinnati and Wisconsin. Hopefully Maryland doesn’t fall behind and they continue their hot streak. Stitt will probably play, but I can’t see him being 100%. I’ve gone back and forth on this one since Tuesday. I think Maryland loses to FSU next week, but I’ll ride the hot hand Sunday.

Maryland 76
Clemson 73

Elsewhere in the ACC…

A 5-1 midweek now has me at 16-7 for the ACC schedule. Several teams step outside the conference this weekend (including Georgia Tech’s interesting schedule choice against Divison II Kentucky State), leaving me only three other games to choose from.

Florida State at Boston College
I’m picking against BC despite their win over Clemson earlier in the week and despite the fact that Oliver Purnell and Leonard Hamilton are basically the same coach.
Pick: Florida State 71, Boston College 67

Virginia Tech at Miami
Virginia Tech may be the most unimpressive 16-3 team in the country. They have played nobody. They have beaten nobody. They barely escaped Charlottesville with a win. By the way, I was busy Thursday night and missed most of NIT battle. When a friend told me someone had been ejected from the game early in the 2nd for swinging elbows, I only needed one guess as to who it was. Seriously, could it have been anybody other than Jeff Allen? I even correctly guessed that male-bimbo Karl Hess was responsible for throwing him out. Oh, I dislike both of them so much. I’m sure Maryland will see Hess just in time for the Dook game.
Pick: Miami 64, Virginia Tech 59

Virginia at North Carolina
The Hoos are starting to come back down to Earth following their 3-0 start. That gentle tumble they’ve taken in the last two games is about to become a freefall.
Pick: North Carolina 85, Virginia 65

Maryland Basketball: Let The Good Times Roll

2010-01-26T14:27:00.003-05:00

Miami Hurricanes (15-4, 1-4 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (13-5, 3-1 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Like I said last week, this bizzaro Terps team that keeps showing up is a welcomed change from what we’ve seen the past few years. They make open shots. They play defense. They rebound relatively well. They put mediocre ACC teams away early, then finish them off in the second half. When was the last time Maryland won back-to-back conference games by a combined 40 points? The championship season? The year after it? It’s been a while.

A year ago – heck, a month ago – there is no way the Terps go to Boston and convincingly put away BC. I don’t care how bad the Eagles may be this year, Maryland would have found a way to make the game interesting. And there was certainly no way the Terps beat NC State at home by 24. Even though they own State, and they probably would have won regardless, there was no way they’d put the game away by the 15-minute mark of the second half. It reminds me of the Terps teams of 10 years ago. Once upon a time, Maryland didn’t fool around with the dregs of the ACC. They won handedly.

It only took three months, but this team is finally learning not to be dependent on the play of Greivis Vasquez. You can certainly look at his 19 points and 5 assists as the reason Maryland won. Or you can look at his effort and realize it’s the reason Maryland won easily. The rest of the team put the Terrapins in position to blow out NC State, and Vasquez finished them off. Landon Milbourne continues his quietly good season. He chipped in 18 and 5. Cliff Tucker had 11 off the bench. Sean Mosley reappeared and added 13. Jordan Williams had 9 and 9, but the timing of the nine points was important. He had two big baskets early, then stopped two different NC State mini-runs later in the game. He also shut down Tracy Smith, who scored most of his points with the game already out of hand. Dino Gregory even made a guest appearance and added 8 and 6. Make no mistake about it; the win over the Wolfpack was a team win.

It’s a quick turnaround for Maryland (and myself) as they host a Miami team that usually gives them problems. A couple of weeks ago, the Hurricanes were ranked. I still can’t figure out why. Miami checks in at 15-4…but all four losses have come in conference. Not only that, two of those losses came to Boston College. I’d love to hear Frank Haith’s explanation for that. They’ve also lost convincingly to both Virginia teams. They managed to beat Wake by one at home. Their best win out of conference came at home to Minnesota in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a game which they held on to win by five. Other than that, their best non-conference wins came against Pepperdine and South Carolina. Don’t be confused by the win over “Nova” on their schedule. That was Nova Southeastern, a division 2 baseball powerhouse near Coral Gables. Not to be confused with Villanova, a division 1 basketball powerhouse in Philadelphia. Their schedule strength is right around 250th in the nation. So if you don’t see a reason for a national ranking, rest assured that you’re not alone.

The problem right now for Miami is they really don’t have a go to scorer. When Guillermo Diaz left a few years ago, Jack McClinton was able to take his place. Haith has yet to find a replacement for McClinton. Miami has decent size. Dwayne Collins is a good player. Four other big men see significant playing time. As usual, Haith can use a revolving door underneath the hoop. The problem is no one can get these guys the ball. There is no Diaz or McClinton to draw the defense and distribute. That’s why most of Collins 13 points per game have come via his 8.7 rebounds. Jamie Dews is the closest thing Haith has to a McClinton. He’s simply not the scorer that either Diaz or McClinton were. He hasn’t warranted double teams. His drives usually don’t get the defense out of place. He’s certainly not the passer that McClinton was. Villanova transfer Malcolm Grant has been asked to fulfill the point guard spot. He’s more of a tradition point guard than a McClinton. He’s basically got a 2/1 assist/turnover ratio, but he doesn’t do a lot of scoring. They also try Durand Scott at times. Scott is a better passer than Grant, but is even less of a scorer. But between Grant and Dews, they haven’t done a decent enough job filling the void McClinton left behind.

The one guy who worries me is Adrian Thomas. He’s a 6’7” forward who can shoot. Doesn’t do a whole lot inside, but can create matchup problems on the perimeter. Think more a Tahj Holden type player than a tradition forward. He shoots 41% from beyond the arc. Milbourne will probably get the assignment, but he’s been burned on the perimeter at times this season. That also means Jordan Williams will be all alone inside to contend with Collins. Williams has shown marked improvement the last few weeks, but it’s not fair to ask him to face a senior like Collins alone. It may be worth giving Tucker more playing time in this game and letting him matchup with Thomas.

That potential problem aside, the Terps backcourt matches up just as well against Miami as they did against State or BC. Expect big games from Vasquez and at least one other guard. The Canes are going to try to isolate Dews, let him score, and clear the paint for Collins. Maryland has done very well this season shutting down teams initial scoring threats. Vasquez and Eric Hayes should be more than up to the task of limiting Dews. If they keep up their recent rebounding efforts, they should also be able to neutralize Collins. Miami is going to try to slow this game down and out-physical Maryland. I expect it to be closer than most think. However, all Maryland needs to do is look at the next couple of weeks of their schedule to see how big a game this is. Hopefully they play with the same sense of urgency they’ve had the last five games.

Maryland 76
Miami 68

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Now 11-6 overall predicting conference games. Here are the middle week contests:

Clemson at Boston College
Nothing will surprise me anymore in ACC play this season. Not even Clemson going to Chestnut Hill and losing. Something tells me the Tigers won’t score only 47 points again and won’t fall to the Eagles. But it wouldn’t surprise me.
Clemson 74, Boston College 59

North Carolina at NC State
The Wolfpack have already pulled their upset. Now it’s time for Sid’s Kids to slide slowly back to 5-11 in ACC play.
Pick: North Carolina 83, NC State 72

Florida State at Duke
Without former Duke destroyer Toney Douglass, I doubt Soloman Alabi and company can go into Durham and win. Derwin Kitchen just doesn’t have the same intimidation factor.
Pick: Duke 76, Florida State 60

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
I would love to see Georgia Tech and Georgetown play in the NCAA Tournament. It would feature two teams with dominant frontcourts that are undermined by their pea-brain coaches who don’t yell at their guards when they jack up threes all game long.
Pick: Georgia Tech 78, Wake Forest 74

Virginia Tech at Virginia
Commonwealth Clash should be better known as Battle For NIT Positioning. I guess it doesn’t have the same ring to it.
Pick: Virginia Tech 68, Virginia 62

The Predictor Top 25: 1/25/10

2010-01-25T10:41:00.001-05:00

The first official Top 25 of the season, and you’ll notice it looks somewhat different than the AP’s and certainly much different than the joke poll ESPN insists on continuing (even though they are the only ones who use it). I think doing it this late in the season allows me to watch as many teams as possible, and doesn’t necessarily force me to go by records or pre-season expectations alone.

1. Kansas (18-1): Despite the one loss, I think this is a much more complete team than Kentucky and they’ll have veteran leadership when it counts.
2. Kentucky (19-0): I know they’re undefeated. But they haven’t played anyone. Their two best wins came against UNC and UConn…and neither one of those teams are close to first in their conferences. SEC isn’t going to offer UK many challenges.
3. Villanova (18-1): Very well could be ahead of Kentucky. May be ahead of them next week.
4. Texas (17-2): Had a rough week, but lost twice on the road in tough atmospheres. Still one of the Top 5 overall teams in the country.
5. Michigan State (17-3): The Spartans started slow (as they usually do), but have dominated the Big 10 (again, as they usually do). Win at Minnesota was a great road victory.
6. Syracuse (19-1): Like Kentucky, just not sold on these guys. They are too young to win games down the stretch this season. Wouldn’t be surprised if they fell on their face today against Georgetown.
7. Kansas State (16-3): The Big 12 is unquestionably the best conference in basketball this season. K-State owns the best conference win so far. That’s why they are this high.
8. Purdue (16-3): Not sure why the Boilers fell off the radar. Like many teams, they went through a little bit of a slump. They recovered this week with two solid conference wins.
9. Georgetown (15-3): Hate to admit it, and I will punish the Hoyas in this poll after their next loss, but this could be the best team in the Big East. Little Racist III is finally allowing the offense to center around Greg Monroe. Only took him a year-and-a-half.
10. BYU (20-1): Stormin’ Mormons probably not going to move up too high in this poll, but the overall record is hard to ignore. Other than their recent game against San Diego State, they’ve been blowing teams out for the past month.
11. West Virginia (15-3): No bad losses, but I would love to see these guys put together a full 40 minutes. They played a good 2nd half against and underrated Marshall team and Ohio State this past week. Otherwise they would have been 13-5.
12. Temple (17-3): Two of their losses have been to Kansas and Georgetown. They’ve handed Villanova their only loss. The Owls may play the best defense in the country. This team is for real.
13. Duke (16-3): Point to that win over Clemson all you want…I’m gonna keep pointing to that 14-point loss to NC State. The same NC State that lost by 24 at Maryland three days later.
14. Gonzaga (16-3): Impressive start for a squad that lost everyone in the offseason. I just don’t see this group of Bulldogs being better than last year’s. Between Matt Bouldin and Elias Harris, this is essentially a two-man team.
15. Tennessee (15-3): The Vols will pad their stats and record in the lousy SEC, but this team won’t scare anyone by the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
16. Wisconsin (16-4): They play ugly basketball, but they keep winning. Like Tennessee, they won’t scare most teams by the first weekend of the tourney.
17. Pittsburgh (15-4): Starting to come back down to Earth after their hot start. Still the same team that lost to Indiana earlier this season.
18. Georgia Tech (14-5): Go ahead, try to figure out the best three or four teams in the ACC. I dare you. Hopefully Paul Hewitt gets out of the way and lets Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors dominate the rest of the season.
19. Clemson (15-5): Blew their chance for a statement win against Duke. The “statement” win over UNC isn’t looking too good right now.
20. Vanderbilt (15-3): Probably the second best team in the SEC behind Kentucky. Hopefully I’ll have an excuse to bump them above Tennessee soon.
21. New Mexico (18-3): The Mountain West is easily better then Pac-10 and probably better than the SEC this season. No reason the polls should have only one MWC team in. A minimum of three should make the NCAA Tournament.
22. Baylor (15-3): I would understand the criticism of my ranking Baylor at all. They’ve had it easy out of conference, and have struggled a bit inside of it. They’ll try to prove me right this week with games against KSU and Texas.
23. Missouri (15-4): Same can be said of Missouri. They’ll get a litmus test game this week at Kansas.
24. UAB (17-2): With Memphis down, the Blazers have stepped up in Conference USA. They own wins over Cincinnati and Butler. They host Tulsa this week in a battle for first in CUSA.
25. Wake Forest (14-4): I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Wake the last two weeks. This team is only going to get better as the season progresses. They got through a killer part of their schedule at 14-4 and 4-2 in conference. That deserves a ranking.

Next 5: Tulsa, Butler, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State

NFL Playoffs: Plenty Of Rest For The Weary

2010-01-24T01:26:00.002-05:00

New York Jets (11-7) vs.
Indianapolis Colts (15-2)(-7.5)
3:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
AFC Championship Game

For those who thought that resting players and not going for an undefeated season was the wrong move: it’s time for you idiots to shut up. That means about 95% of the talking heads at ESPN and at any other network. The Colts and Saints both proved this past weekend, and proved convincingly, that the only goal a team should worry about is winning the Super Bowl. A perfect season is nice if it happens. But I know I’d much rather my team went 17-2 and won the Super Bowl then have my team go 18-1 and lose it. Right Patriots fans?

The idea that going 19-0 was a necessity for the Colts or Saints was so foolish from the beginning. Why subject Peyton Manning or Drew Brees to two extra games of hits if it’s not necessary? Why risk it? How many injuries do we see on any given week? The more Manning, or any other starter plays, the more likely they are to get hurt. Manning can’t get hurt sitting on the bench. And since those games that he sat on the bench obviously didn’t matter, then protecting him was the right move. I don’t want to hear anymore about a team being rusty. What’s better…a healthy but rusty Peyton Manning or a Peyton Manning who played all 16 games but now has a broken leg and can’t play in the postseason?

Playing starters down the stretch didn’t work for the San Diego Chargers. So much for those 11 straight wins to end the season. So much for being ESPN’s favorite to win the AFC. Behind the extremely predictable play-calling of Norv Turner, the usual postseason choking from Philip Rivers and an unexpected bad game from Nate Kaeding, the Chargers join 27 other teams on the golf courses. As I say at the beginning of every season, a team that is coached by Norv Turner and a team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers CAN NOT win a Super Bowl. Can’t happen. Turner is way too predictable and conservative in crucial moments…and Rivers is too unpredictable to come through in the clutch. The Chargers are lucky to be located in San Diego. If they were in any other conference but the lousy AFC West, they wouldn’t be on this long sustained run of success.

So as impressed as I was with the Colts performance, I’m equally unimpressed by the Jets. The Chargers were a better team, but because of coaching, quarterbacking and bad kicking, the Jets hung around and eventually took the lead and the win. The Jets didn’t force those missed kicks. The Jets didn’t force Turner to become more conservative than Rush Limbaugh. The Jets may have had something to do with Rivers’ struggles, but their defense wasn’t the only reason that Rivers couldn’t lead San Diego to a win. The Jets were given 20 chances to win that game. New York took advantage of the 20th chance. The Jets didn’t win that game as much as San Diego lost it.

The Jets and Colts play in their biggest game since Super Bowl III. The two teams met earlier this year during Week 16. That was one of the games the Colts didn’t try to win and that was one of the gifts the Jets got on their way to the playoffs (the Cincinnati game being the other). When the Colts starters were in that game, Indianapolis had the lead and control. When Manning and other starters came out, the Jets roughed up the backups and won. Like their win over San Diego, the Jets won because the other team did something to help them. The Colts won’t be as generous this time. By the middle of the 3rd quarter, I don’t see this game being close.
Pick: Colts 34, Jets 17

Minnesota Vikings (13-5) vs.
New Orleans Saints (14-3)(-3.5)
6:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
NFC Championship Game

Last week, everyone and their mothers were picking the Cowboys. That’s why the Vikings were only three point favorites at home despite having a week off, a better team and a slightly better coach. Now, I know the Vikings whooped up on those Cowboys – and staff here at The Predictor is thankful for that – but the Saints should be much more than 3.5-point favorites. Again, New Orleans is at home. Their homefield advantage is greater than Minnesota’s. They are the better team. They have the better coach. Just because Minnesota is everyone’s team of the week doesn’t mean the line should be so low.

As an amazing prognosticator (check my post from January 8th if you doubt my claim), I’m trained to see lines like this and bet the other way. Both teams were impressive last week. The Vikings embarrassed Dallas by 31 points. New Orleans ran up on Arizona by 31 points. New Orleans offense looked much better than Minnesota’s. They moved the ball easier. It didn’t take them a half of football to get comfortable. New Orleans defense was also looked marginally better than Minnesota’s. The Vikings allowed Dallas to move the ball up and down the field in the first half. Had it not been for the original choke artist Tony Romo, the Cowboys probably would have put 13-17 points on the board before halftime. The Saints D had one bad play from scrimmage early, allowed one decent Cardinals drive and that was it. Plus, I would argue that Arizona is a better team than Dallas. So even though both teams won convincingly, the Saints looked much better overall. Add in the homefield advantage at the Superdome, and the Saints really should be a touchdown favorite.

I’ll give the Vikings this: they have a better chance of upsetting New Orleans than the Jets do of upsetting the Colts. The Saints do have one obvious weakness and I have yet to see any from Indianapolis. As I discussed last week, the Saints are a much better team when they have the lead. That may seem obvious, and most teams do play better when they are winning, but it’s crucial for the Saints to go into halftime with a lead. I sort of cringed after Tim Hightower’s long run on the first play from scrimmage. I thought the Saints could be in real trouble. Fortunately, Brees had no problem moving the ball against the Cardinals D. He even got help with a surprise appearance by Reggie Bush (yes, he’s still playing!). New Orleans led by 14 by the end of the first quarter.

The Vikings have a chance if they can control the game early. They need to be on top, or at least within one score at halftime. In order to do this, Minnesota must run the ball in the first half. The Cardinals tried to get in shootout with the Saints last weekend…and it obviously didn’t work. Minnesota must run the ball and keep the Saints offense away from the field as much as possible. Even if Brett Favre has success early and leads a couple of touchdown drives, he won’t be able to keep up with Brees throughout the course of the game. Save Favre’s heroics for the second half if necessary. If Adrian Peterson doesn’t go for 150, I don’t see any way for the Vikings to win.

I don’t have much confidence in Brad Childress allowing Peterson to do that. As we all know by now, he’s not running the team. This is Favre’s team, or at least Favre’s offense. He plays when he wants to play. He runs up the score when he wants to run up the score. Favre is going to do what he wants, when he wants. And Childress is going to let him. This is the wrong game for the Vikings to get away from their strength. The Saints are about to send Favre to his retirement, or his un-retirement, or whatever game Favre plays in the offseason.
Pick: Saints 38, Vikings 16

Maryland Basketball: To The Next 1,000

2010-01-23T12:51:00.005-05:00

NC State Wolfpack (13-6, 2-3 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (12-5, 2-1 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

There’s no good time to ever play Longwood, but the Terps played them at the absolute worst time. I understand the reasoning behind it. Gary Williams looked at the ACC schedule before the season started, saw two straight road games and a week off following those games. He’s worries that Maryland is going to lose two in a row on the road and then not play for an entire week. He’s worried the team will have no momentum before their home game against NC State. So he schedules an easy game, a game which Maryland will certainly win, so the Terps can stay in the flow and feel good about themselves heading in to two straight home games.

Fast forward to late January. Maryland gets a solid home win against Florida State. They play exceptionally well at Wake Forest, even though they lose in overtime. Then they blow out Boston College. The Terps sit at 2-1 in the ACC and are feeling pretty good about themselves. Suddenly, that game against Longwood isn’t necessary. Unfortunately, they still have to play it. Maryland takes care of business and blows out Longwood (while I sit there the entire game making offensive “Longwood” jokes). So what’s the problem? Maryland wins by 57, and I spend two hours of my day making somewhat dirty jokes. Seems harmless. Well, Maryland’s RPI falls from 52 to 61, and their strength of schedule crashes from 29 to 54 (they’ve both since gone up a little bit to 57 and 46, thanks in large part to Indiana’s win over Penn State on Thursday night). Maryland could have won that game by 200 points…their RPI and SOS were still going to take a hit. It would have been worth it had Maryland been on a two game losing streak and struggling. However, because of the solid start in ACC play, the game against Longwood did more harm than good. Hindsight is 20/20.

Hopefully the strength of the conference will boost Maryland’s numbers up the rest of the season. Even though the conference appears to be stuck in mediocrity and parity this season, the RPI/SOS numbers are solid. As of Friday, there is only one team that’s above 100 in the RPI, and that’s Miami at 102. Right now, there are only two other teams that are in danger of falling below 100…Virginia (98) and Boston College (94). Everyone else is comfortably within the top 90. Which means that most of Maryland’s wins from here on out will be deemed “quality wins” by the selection committee. The game against Longwood hurt their tournament profile, but the rest of the schedule should help.

Maryland’s next two ACC games are at home. And they are two very winnable games. They’ll also be career games #1,000 and #1,001 for Gary Williams in his coaching career. Gary is currently 637-362. He’s 430-229 during his 21 seasons in College Park. He’s won 28 NCAA tournament games. He owns 71 wins against Top 25 competition. He owns 33 wins against Top 10 teams. He’s beaten the #1 team in the country seven times. Gary owns the 1995 and 2002 mythical regular season ACC titles. He won the actual 2004 ACC title by winning the tournament. And of course, he owns the 2002 National Championship. Not bad at all.

For all those who doubt what Gary Williams means to Maryland, and there’s a small faction of the fanbase (including the current Athletic Director) who have forgotten, this is a man who rescued Maryland from the depths of probation. There is no Maryland basketball without him. There is no National Championship without him. There is no Joe Smith, Keith Booth, Terrance Morris, Juan Dixon, Steve Blake or Greivis Vasquez without him. Obviously the past five years have not been as successful as any of us would have liked. But I’d take the current state of the program over the state of the program in 1989, the year Gary took over. Coaches and programs have bad years. It happens. Even with the powerhouse programs. Jim Boeheim went four years without a tournament win (2004-08). During that stretch the Orange miss the tournament twice. Jim Calhoun whiffed on the postseason completely a couple of seasons ago. The Huskies went 17-14…two games worse than any Maryland season under Gary since 1993. Kentucky was in shambles the past three years before John Calipari and his wads of cash came back to save it. Arizona is struggling to stay afloat at .500 in a terrible conference this season. UCLA, yes the UCLA with more championships than any other program and three straight Final Four appearances from 2006-08, is going to finish below .500 this season and probably next. Even Ratface had two awful seasons in the mid-90’s. At least Gary stuck around through his struggles. Ratface bailed on his 1995 team with “back problems” and “exhaustion” midway through a 2-14 ACC campaign. The worst Gary has done since getting probation off the books was the 19-15 2007-08 season. And the Terps were even on track to make the tournament that year until a late season swoon.

Just look no further than last season. Gary had a team with only one player taller than 6’6” playing in an ACC loaded with future draft picks. He willed that team to the NCAA Tournament and a first round win. I will still argue today, and for a long time, that Gary Williams was the only coach in the entire country that could have made the NCAA Tournament with the Maryland roster last season. Give any other coach in America the roster he had, they’d be lucky to go .500. Gary won a tournament game and got the team within one game of playing for the ACC title. Say what you will about his recruiting, but there is no doubt in my mind that he’s one of the top five game day coaches in college basketball.

Williams’ 1,000th game comes against a team he’s owned for the past five years, the NC State Wolfpack. The Wuffies are still for some reason led by Sidney Lowe. Lowe passed Oliver Purnell, Paul Hewitt and Leonard Hamilton a long time ago as the worst coach in the ACC. Even the addition of Tony Bennett to the conference couldn’t help Lowe escape this dubious honor. This is Sid’s fourth season in the Triangle, and he has a superb 17-36 record in conference play. His best finish came in last year, when the Pack went 6-10 and finished 10th in the ACC. He managed to wriggle his way to a fourth season, and based on what’s happening so far, he may trick NC State into giving him a fifth.

The Wolfpack currently sit at 13-6 and 2-3 in conference. They’ve lost to Clemson, Wake and UVA. Nothing really embarrassing there, but it remains to be seen how good Virginia really is. However, the Pack can howl it up about their two conference wins. They beat Florida State on the road two weeks ago and earlier this week they manhandled Dook. And when I say manhandled, I mean MANHANDLED. They embarrassed the overrated Dookies for pretty much the entire game, despite the 33-26 discrepancy at the free throw line (it was even worse before the Nerds started fouling intentionally). The only thing more embarrassing that Duke’s effort was Sidney’s red blazer.

State also owns out of conference wins against Marquette (ok) and Auburn (meh). They’ve also lost to Northwestern (not terrible), Arizona (usually not bad, but certainly not good this season) and Florida*. The asterisk denotes the fact that NC State lost that game on a 75-foot prayer in overtime. Overall, not a bad slate so far for the Wolfpack. Nothing about this team screams tournament ready, or even top half in the mediocre ACC ready, but there’s still a slight chance they surprise me. The narrow wins over Austin Peay, Elon and Winthrop say otherwise.

The problems for the Wolfpack this year are the same as in years past. The backcourt for State is dreadful. They have no point guard who I would trust with the ball in the second half. Javier Gonzalez continues to try to moonlight at point. And while he averages 4.7 assists per game, he averages 3.5 turnovers as well. That includes a lovely 4 turnover/0 assist performance against Clemson and a 6 turnover/3 assist game against FSU. In fact, the game against Duke was the only ACC game in which Gonzalez had more assists than turnovers. A good backcourt, which the Terps possess, can grab steals and get easy transition points. Maryland is among the best in the nation when it comes to forcing turnovers. The Wolfpack turn the ball over 13 times per game. Big advantage for the Terps there.

Unlike the last three games for Maryland, the Terps are going to face a team that can shoot from outside. Of the four players who typically take three’s for State, three of them shoot 38% or better. Dennis Horner is the best shooter at 42%, but Gonzalez and Scott Wood will take more threes. Both are streaky shooters, but as we saw against Duke, they can both get hot at the wrong time for the opposition. NC State is not great underneath. Tracy Smith, who went for 19 and 9 last year in Raleigh against Maryland, added some muscle in the offseason and is now averaging 17 and 8.6 a game. More impressive from Smith is that average has basically held in ACC play. He had 18 against Virginia, 16 against Clemson and a season-high 23 against the Nerds. The good news for Maryland is that Lowe doesn’t have wave after wave of big men to throw on the court. This team has more in common with BC than with Wake or FSU. Horner, who is 6’9”, only grabs 4.2 boards a game. State relies on their guards for rebounding more than any team in the ACC…and that includes the Terps. If Smith gets in early foul trouble (and he’s had three or more personals in three straight games), the Pack really struggle getting second chance opportunites on the glass.

For Maryland to win the three-quarters court press and the trapping game will have to work. If they can force turnovers, there really should be no problem. The only way Maryland gets in trouble is if they let the Wuffies get out to an early lead and allow State to play a half-court game. Maryland cannot allow Sid the Kid and company to actually think they have momentum coming off their win over the Floor Slappers. I think Maryland’s recent momentum continues and the Wolfpack have a classic let down game.

Maryland 76
NC State 64

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Another 4-2 weekend leads me to an 8-4 overall record in the crazy ACC. I took the week off because Maryland did as well, but I’m back for four more conference games.

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Like the Terps, Virginia Tech’s Chrome Dome scheduled a meaningless out of conference game against North Carolina Central during the week. So far the Hokies have beaten Miami (but who hasn’t) and lost convincingly to UNC and FSU. Home court advantage should be enough to squeak by with ACC win #2.
Pick: Virginia Tech 67, Boston College 61

Virginia at Wake Forest
This undefeated Virginia fad has to end eventually…right? Note to Dino Gaudio: stop Sylven Landesberg. You do that, you win. This UVA team is similar in many ways to the Singletary team of two seasons ago. Except Landesberg is nowhere near as good as Singletary was. Shouldn’t be hard to beat these guys on the road.
Pick: Wake Forest 75, Virginia 62

Duke at Clemson
The Great White Nerds are 0-2 on the road in the conference, and 0-3 if you count the Wisconsin game. Nothing in their three previous true road games have suggested to me that this team can come close to winning on the road against a half-decent team. Plus, this is a primetime game for Clemson at Littlejohn, and the Tigers have had Dook’s number recently.
Pick: Clemson 85, Duke 76

Georgia Tech at Florida State
Two of the more talented teams in the conference led by two men who have no idea what to do with their fully-stocked rosters.
Pick: Georgia Tech 72, Florida State 70

Maryland Basketball: Maine Street

2010-01-16T12:23:00.006-05:00

Maryland Terrapins (10-5, 1-1 ACC) vs.
Boston College Eagles (10-7, 1-2 ACC)
Conte Forum – Chestnut Hill, MA

I’m not sure what to say about Tuesday’s game. The final score and margin was basically what I thought it would be. But the up-and-down emotions of the game threw me off a little bit. Let’s see if we can recap.

There are no room for moral victories, especially when you need to win nine or ten ACC games. Tuesday’s night game was as close as you could come to a moral victory for Maryland. Once Maryland got down seven points midway through the second half, I thought they were done. They’ve played that game many times before. You know the one I’m talking about. The Terps hang around most of the game, but can never take the second half lead, the opponent goes on a mini-run and Maryland either rushes shots or gives up completely. When Wake extended the lead from three to seven in the second half, and did so on fast break baskets, I figured that was it. Maryland would have a couple of bad possessions and lose by 12 or 13 points.

The opposite happened. Maryland stayed patient. They started by attacking the rim. Then they started kicking out for open outside shots…that they actually made. The defense began getting tough. All of a sudden, Maryland was up with less than two minutes to go. Unfortunately, they couldn’t hold on to the lead. Landon Milbourne committed a dumb foul (although upon further review, it looked like it was a phantom call) that gave Wake free points to tie the game. In overtime, Maryland had a couple of bad turnovers and three missed free throws. Then they had a couple of bad luck bounces. Ishmael Smith’s 10-foot floating prayer was answered. The shot was a total brick. But instead of hitting the back iron and bouncing out, the ball hit the iron, took a crazy bounce straight up and then straight down through the net. Greivis Vasquez took a questionable three on the other end, but even after the bad shot, Sean Mosley had a great look to win the game and missed by an inch. I don’t care about the situation. It was a relatively wide open look, Mosley needs to make that shot. All in all, the Terps played well in their first ACC road game against a good Wake Forest team. Unfortunately they came up short, and the loss won’t help them in the long run. The overtime loss to the Deacons won’t be one the committee looks back at with reverence. The loss doesn’t hurt Maryland. It’s certainly not a bad loss. But it’s a game that Maryland should have won on two separate occasions and failed to put away.

A couple of positives that shouldn’t be overlooked. Maryland once again won the rebounding battle against a taller team. That included several key offensive rebounds down the stretch. The other positive is the play of Jordan Williams. Against Wake, he started to look like the player that scored 44 points in high school playoff games. He attacked the rim, he went up strong. He fought off a 6’9” future NBA-lottery pick inside. Very impressive game from him. It was also good to see Adrian Bowie bounce back after a tough game against FSU.

Maryland hits the road again, making the only possible trip North within the conference. Boston College checks in with a very interesting 10-7 record. They have some decent wins: San Diego State, at Providence, at Michigan, UMass and South Carolina. They even managed to beat Miami by a point. They also have several curious losses. They fell to St. Joseph’s and Northern Iowa in the Virgin Islands Tournament. Then they started dropping home games against every New England team they could find. First it was Harvard. Then Rhode Island. Then there was this beauty. Yes, Boston College managed to lose at home to Maine. In fact, they managed to blow a late eight-point lead at home to Maine. The same Maine team that lost by double-digits to such powerhouses as Brown and Quinnipiac. The loss to Maine is by far the worst loss that any ACC team has had this season.

Following the loss to Maine (and a blowout win over lowly New Jersey “Why In The World Are We Division 1” Tech), the Eagles went on the road and got handled by Clemson (for the entire game) and by Duke (just the second half). So we know that the Eagles aren’t that good. We know that they miss Tyrese Rice more than anyone thought they would. We know BC struggles to score against good teams. They are averaging 58.6 points in three ACC games while giving up 70. They clearly aren’t playing well at home. What is to stop Maryland from going up to Chestnut Hill and coming away with a win?

Well, the Eagles do lead the ACC in rebounding margin. They also don’t turn the ball over a lot. As we saw Tuesday, Maryland’s offense still struggles when they aren’t easily forcing turnovers. Also, when BC scores, they get points from a variety of players. Maryland-killer Joe Trapani averages 14.6. Mr. January Reggie Jackson (the Terps already played Chris Singleton…does NC State have a Brady Anderson on the team) scores 13.6 per. Maryland-killer II Corey Raji averages 12. Rakim Sanders chips in 11. The Eagles are also deep. Nine players average 11 minutes or more. That doesn’t necessarily make them good. That just means they are deep. BC is above average in terms of speed. Al Skinner’s team has some weapons. They are fully capable of beating most ACC teams on any given night. But as we’ve seen, they’re also capable of losing to Maine at home.

The two main culprits for the Eagles struggles have been three-point shooting and forcing turnovers. The Eagles are shooting an abysmal 30.8% from the three-point line. And they take a lot of threes (266 through 17 games, or 15-to-16 a game). Other than Tripani and occasionally Biko Paris, there should be no problems for Maryland guarding the perimeter. Actually, I shouldn’t write no problems. There won’t be any excuses for Maryland if they don’t guard the perimeter. And while the Eagles don’t turn the ball over a whole lot, they don’t force many turnovers either. They only have 77 steals as a team on the season, which translates to 4.5 a game. Like their three-point percentage, that number is very low.

Despite the high rebound margin (7.5 a game), the Eagles are small. Tripani is a soft 6'8" and Josh Southern rarely plays anymore. So along with having the shooting and defensive advantage, Maryland should also have the height advantage. This is a game that the Terps should, I repeat should, be able to win. But as we all know, Maryland has a history of dropping games like this.

Maryland 72
Boston College 65

Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 4-2 on the first set of ACC picks. Not a bad start. Here are the weekend games.

Clemson at NC State
The Tigers finally overcame their UNC bugaboo, and made a statement game. Now typically, every time Clemson wins a big game, they find a way to drop a game they shouldn’t. This would qualify as another bad loss if they fall.
Pick: Clemson 74, NC State 61

Georgia Tech at North Carolina
The most stunning loss during the past week wasn’t UNC getting dominated at Littlejohn. It was Georgia Tech getting dominated at Virginia. The Yellow Jackets weren’t even close. So they sit at 1-2 in the ACC…and that one win is against Duke. Weird.
Pick: UNC 83, Georgia Tech 78

Virginia Tech at Florida State
Did Seth Greenburg’s Hokies really have a 27-point halftime lead against Miami this past week? They sure did, and they may be worth of a national ranking if they get by FSU.
Pick: Florida State 68, Virginia Tech 64

Miami at Virginia
Have you taken a look at the ACC standings recently? I know it’s early, but do it anyway. Sitting at the top, all alone, undefeated in conference play are the 2-0 Virginia Cavaliers. The Canes need to put a stop to this.
Pick: Miami 63, Virginia 60

Wake Forest at Duke
The Deacons are similar to Georgia Tech. They can give Dook all kinds of matchup problems because they are physical inside and the Devils continue to trot out Galactic Space Captain Brian Zoubek…who is not. The Dookies will find a way to win this game because they are at home and some of their shots will eventually fall.
Pick: Duke 80, Wake Forest 71

NFL Playoffs: From Undefeated To Unloved

2010-01-14T15:37:00.001-05:00

Went 2-2 last week. I got the Jets (which everyone else did) and the Cardinals (which no one else did) correct. Trying to do a little better in this round.

SATURDAY
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-3)(-7)
4:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
It’s amazing to me how many people don’t think either the Saints or Colts can win a playoff game, let alone win the Super Bowl. Just because both of these teams struggled over the final month of the season, all of a sudden people are ignoring their combined 27-5 records. Furthermore, the two teams are completely different cases and got to their current records two different ways. More on the Colts in a second.

Unlike Indianapolis, the Saints actually tried down the stretch, which makes their fall a little more worrisome. You can’t argue that the Saints failed to put forth an effort to win games against the Cowboys and Buccaneers. They certainly did. Their finale against Carolina was meaningless, and they didn’t show a whole lot in that game. But they didn’t hide anything from Dallas or Tampa and they didn’t rest any of their starters. So what gives?

Well that New Orleans defense, which many said was the best in the league at the midseason point, really isn’t that good. Everyone was willing to hand the coach of the year trophy to Sean Payton and a smaller version of the award to defensive coordinator Gregg Williams in November. However, the reason the Saints defense was so good for the majority of the season was the Saints offense. New Orleans has basically been able to score at will this year. For the majority of their wins, they were able to establish an early lead. That allowed the defense to be more aggressive and forced opposing offenses to be more predictable (abandoning the running game in favor of passing). An aggressive defense playing a predictable offense usually leads to a predictable outcome. The Saints were able to rack up the stats defensively (sacks, turnovers, etc…) because their offense put them in favorable positions. When the Saints defense was forced to play without a large lead or forced to play from behind, they couldn’t stop anyone. That included the lowly Buccaneers. In fact, the Saints only had two comeback wins all season. And neither of those were the result of falling behind 10-0 or 14-0, then coming back to win 20-17 because of the defense. In the comebacks against the Dolphins and Redskins, the offense needed to put up a combined 79 points to bail out the defense and win the game. And when the offense wasn’t able to score enough, the Saints lost.

So here we are in the second round of the playoffs. The Saints are facing the one NFC team they probably didn’t want to see. New Orleans matched up better against Minnesota, Green Bay, Philadelphia and even Dallas (yes, I know the Cowboys beat them once…but I would take my chances with New Orleans in a rematch). Arizona has the passing game to beat any defense, no matter how predictable the Cardinals become. As we saw against Green Bay, the Cardinals can score on a good defense with great ease. It doesn’t matter if the Saints know the pass is coming, the Cardinals will be able to execute. So it really isn’t a matter of if the Cardinals offense can keep pace in a shootout with New Orleans. The real question, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, is can the Saints offense keep up with Arizona?

Despite the questions around New Orleans, I’m going to take them here. They didn’t get to 13-3 by accident. The one thing Arizona didn’t do last week was turn the ball over. They have been prone to giving the ball away all season. So they are due for a couple of them in this game. Even though the Saints defense isn’t great, they do a great job of ball-hawking. Turnovers are the difference, and the Saints move on.
Pick: Saints 38, Cardinals 28

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (14-2)(-6)
8:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
The most shocking result by far from last week was the Ravens beatdown of the Patriots. Other than the final margin of victory, two things stood out to me. One, the Ravens were able to stop beating themselves with penalties. I believe they only committed three during the game. Two, the Ravens gave New England every chance to comeback and win that game in the 2nd quarter and the Patriots simply didn’t take advantage. Which means the Pats simply weren’t as good as everyone, including myself, thought they were. I didn’t think they were all that good, but I certainly thought they were able to beat an average Baltimore team at home.

Just like Arizona is due for turnovers this week, I think Baltimore is due for a penalty-filled game. They’ll also need Joe Flacco to do more than 4-10 for 34 yards and a pick. Since he’s been hurt, and since he’s not that good, I wouldn’t expect him to keep up with Peyton Manning in this game. The Ravens will also have to face an offense that goes vertical and downfield. The weakness of the Baltimore defense is the secondary. The Patriots were only interested in throwing 5-yard dinks and dunks. They’ll get a little more from Manning than they did from Tom Brady.

A few years ago, the Colts tried the strategy of resting their starters down the stretch. They played like crap for the first half of their playoff loss to the Steelers as a result. It was clear that rust was a factor in that game. But the Steelers had a better quarterback and a balanced offense. Along with deep pass coverage, Flacco and his receivers are a huge weakness for the Ravens. It’s going to come back to burn them somewhere in these playoffs.
Pick: Colts 31, Ravens 17

SUNDAY
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Like last week, one of these teams has to go home, and that’s a good thing. I have nothing against the Vikings personally, but once they made their deal with the devil and signed Brett Favre, all bets were off. I guess I’d rather have him hang around another weekend instead of the Cowboys. Let’s get rid of these jokers already. Memo to Brad Childress: stop having Favre throw 35 times a game. You have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. For crying out loud, please use them.
Pick: Vikings 28, Cowboys 24

New York Jets (10-7) vs. San Diego Chargers (13-3)(-7)
4:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Anyone within earshot within ESPN knows that the winner of this game will go on to win the Super Bowl. The Jets are destiny’s darlings, while the Chargers are red hot…going into the playoffs with momentum and all that garbage. I’ll give ESPN the benefit of the doubt on the Chargers. They have won eleven in a row, and not all of those games were against the lousy AFC West. Futhermore, they routinely give the Colts fits. So if they get past this round, their matchup with Indy should be very intriguing.

As for the Jets? Like I said last week, I’m impressed with what they did at the end of the season, despite playing teams that didn’t seem to care. They had to win their last few games, and they went out and did what the Broncos, Steelers and Texans could not do. But let’s be honest. Their last six games of the regular season came against teams that were good but had nothing to play for, or weren’t good at all. Their last meaningful regular season game was against New England back on November 22nd. The Jets lost by 17. The outcome of their game last week against Cincinnati was so obvious that even I managed to get it right. Two things have been clear since early December: the Bengals were going to win their division and the Bengals were going to be one-and-done in the playoffs. So this will be the best team the Jets have played in almost two months.

The Jets defense is good, and they’ll slow down the Chargers somewhat. But the best threat for San Diego, at least in my mind, continues to be Antonio Gates. The Jets really have no one who can stop him. Can Darrelle Revis shut down Vincent Jackson? Yes. Can the Jets slow down the Tomlinson-Sproles combination? Yes. I just doubt they can limit Gates. The Jets are also going to need Mark Sanchez to complete passes of more than ten yards to win this game. He hasn’t proven over the last couple of months that he can do that. I don’t think the New York defense will slow San Diego down enough, and the Jets offense certainly can’t afford to get into a shootout.
Pick: Chargers 27, Jets 16

Maryland Basketball: The First 48

2010-01-12T12:59:00.005-05:00

Maryland Terrapins (10-4, 1-0 ACC) vs.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-3, 1-1 ACC)
Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum – Winston-Salem, NC

Even if you had told me Maryland would beat Florida State, there’s no way I would have believed you if you had told me that Maryland would outrebound the Seminoles 40-34. Where did that performance come from, and where has that type of effort been the past two months?

If you didn’t recognize that Maryland team, you are not alone. They played like a team possessed in the first half. In fact, that might have been their best opening half of basketball in years. The Terps got a little lackadaisical in the second half and allowed FSU to get some easy put backs (including a couple of highlite reel dunks). But for the most part, Maryland executed their game plan to perfection. They got Soloman Alabi and Chris Singleton in early foul trouble. They minimized the efforts of Michael Snaer and Derwin Kitchen with aggressive, but smart, man-to-man defense. Most importantly, Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes made the open looks that they’ve been missing all season. Add in 13 points from Landon Milbourne and a solid effort from both Dino Gregory and James Padgett, and the Terps can claim their first big win of the 2009-10 season.

It would be nice to assume that Maryland will play like the from here on out, but you know there will be several games where the rebounding effort slacks off or the Terps start missing open shots again. However, this type of effort at least lets us know what Maryland is actually capable of. I seriously doubted that they could ever play as well as they did Sunday night. Just keep in mind, Maryland won a game over a ranked team in a game where Sean Mosley scored six points, Jordan Williams scored three (but did have seven boards) and Adrian Bowie didn’t score at all in 11 minutes. So as well as the Terrapins played, they could certainly play even better in the future.

Speaking of the future, Maryland has less than 48 hours to get ready for their next ACC game. This is a fact that did not escape Gary Williams. As you well know, Gary has a long history of taking any real or perceived slight from the ACC and blowing it out of proportion. This past week, he’s been complaining to anyone who will listen about the schedule. He points out that Maryland is the only team in the ACC that has to play two games in three days with the second game on the road…not counting the Carolina schools, since a road trip to the town next door hardly counts as an actual road trip. It’s a fair complaint, even though it’s not accurate (the Dookies host Georgia Tech on February 4th and are at Boston College on the 6th). Maryland is the only team that’s required to do this right out of the gate of the conference schedule. That’s certainly asking a little much. However, Gary fails to point out that the ACC was fairly generous with the opening schedule (as I pointed out in the last point, no Georgia Tech, Duke or UNC until February). So while it’s technically not fair to have this quick of a turn around, and Gary is usually right on the money when it comes to calling out the Carolina-bias of the ACC, he’s not going to get a lot of sympathy from me in this case. Maryland has been compensated in other ways on their 2010 conference schedule. Not to mention the fact that if the Terps want to go past the second round of the NCAA tournament ever again, they'll have to win two games in three days.

A team that has a real gripe with the schedule may be Wake Forest. This game is crucial for the Demon Deacons, even though we are only in mid-January. So far the Deacs have beaten NC State at home and lost by one at Miami. But after their game with Maryland, they have back-to-back games at Duke and at UNC. A home game against Virginia follows that double dip, but then it’s right back on the road to Georgia Tech. Assuming they go 1-3 in that stretch (a fair assumption right now), then a loss to Maryland would give Wake a 2-4 start in conference play. Even in a down year for the conference, that hole might be too much for the Deacons to overcome. Plus in their remaining ten games, they still have home games against UNC, Tech and Clemson and road trips to Virginia Tech and FSU. So you know Dino Gaudio has his players thinking this is a must win against Maryland. Be prepared to see a desperate Wake Forest team (or at least a desperate Wake Forest coach).

It’s hard to know what to make of the Deacs 11-3 record so far. Along with the loss to Miami, Wake got drubbed at Purdue and lost at home to William & Mary. Terps fans know what that’s like. The loser of this game will not be invited to participate in the CAA Tournament later this winter. They have a quality win at Gonzaga, which was a true road game played in Spokane (rather than Seattle or Portland). Wake had back-to-back overtime wins against A-10 schools Richmond and Xavier. Richmond got a lot of hype entering the season, but they probably won’t be sniffing the tournament. Xavier is not as good as they usually are, but they’ll probably win the A-10 or get an at large bid. Wake’s three quality wins have come by a total of 12 points…and again, they needed overtime twice. Other than that, they’ve played cupcakes (and that includes NC State). They needed all 40 minutes to put the Wolfpack away at home. Like Maryland, Wake’s beaten UNC Greensboro and Winston-Salem State, but not nearly as convincingly. The Deacons have all the makings of a good team, but they aren’t close to being a great team. Certainly not as good as they were last season.

In fairness to Wake, it’s not easy to replace James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Last season, along with Al-Farouq Aminu, the Deacons climbed as high as #1 in the country before claiming a four seed in the NCAA tournament. Wake decided not to show for their first round game against Cleveland State, but the overall season before that was impressive. Then Teague and Johnson moved on in the offseason, which means Aminu was left with Ishmael Smith, a bunch of role players and underclassmen.

Aminu should be the early favorite for ACC player of the year. He was a certain first round NBA pick but came back for a second season. 17 points and 11 boards per game later, and I doubt that Aminu has hurt his draft stock any. Ish Smith is lightning quick, and despite the fact he’s undersized, he plays solid defense against taller opponents. He’s also a great passer, with six assists per game and a 2.1/1 assist/turnover ratio. But he has struggled to shoot this year. Especially from the three-point line (24%) and from the foul line (44%). So there’s no secret in how to guard him. Take away his passing lanes, let him shoot from the outside, and be physical if he tries to use his speed to drive. C.J Harris, L.D. Williams, Redskins receiver Gary Clark, freshman and Entorage character Ari Stewart, and white stiff Chas McFarland are all solid role players. With Aminu and Smith controlling the game, the rest of the Deacons fit in nicely. If Smith’s passes are stopped, and Aminu is forced to carry the team himself, the rest of the Deacons struggle to contribute. The key for Maryland will be stopping Smith, not Aminu. Let Aminu have his 20 and 10, stop Smith from getting the rest of the team involved, and Wake’s offense should grind to a halt.

Like FSU, Wake Forest is a tall team. They have five guys who are 6’8” or taller and get significant playing time. However, the Deacons are not as physical as the Seminoles. Even with their height, Wake struggles at times to rebound. They’ve basically played their opponents even on the boards through the course of the season. If Maryland duplicates their effort from Sunday, rebounding should not be the difference. Despite the performance two days ago, and despite the favorable matchups for Maryland (there is no one on this team that can guard Vasquez), I have a nagging feeling that the quick turnaround and the hostile environment will be Maryland’s downfall. Wake needs this game more than the Terps do, and I think they go out and take it in the second half.

Wake Forest 78
Maryland 73

Elsewhere in the ACC…

I’m going to try to have pithy comments for most of the ACC games this season, but not this week because of the quick turnaround.

Florida State 65, NC State 54
Duke 81, Boston College 66
Georgia Tech 77, Virginia 60
Virginia Tech 73, Miami 67
Clemson 84, North Carolina 77

Maryland Basketball: Lost Among The Trees

2010-01-09T20:21:00.004-05:00

#18/19 Florida State Seminoles (13-2, 1-0 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (9-4, 0-0 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Going to be real short here. Computer crapped out…AGAIN! Have no idea when I’ll have use of it, but for the time being, I’m stuck doing this at work. Hence the shortness of this post.

Maryland starts off on another ACC adventure. If their play resembles anything we’ve seen so far, it’s going to be a brutal three months. The Terps don’t have an embarrassing loss this year, like they had the past two seasons. They also have exactly zero quality wins…unless you count Indiana. Which I don’t.

For those who were surprised by the loss to William & Mary, why were you? First of all, W&M is good. They’ll probably win the always tough CAA. They’ve had already beaten Wake Forest. I said for weeks that Maryland would lose that game. The only thing shocking was the way they lost it. I expected the game to at least be close, and it wasn’t until the very end. That was the only thing I was remotely shocked about. Not an excuse, past Maryland teams would have beaten a team the caliber of William & Mary (like when they easily beat a very good Winthrop team three years ago). But for these Terrapins this season, that loss was expected.

Unfortunately, I’m not going to get too much into the rest of the ACC in this post. It hasn’t been pretty anyway. NC State and Virginia are as bad as everyone expected. Boston College has lost to just about every Northeastern school, including Maine. Wake Forest has that previously mentioned defeat to William & Mary. North Carolina … yes, North Carolina … lost to College of Charleston. Someone forgot to tell Roy Williams and company that just because Bobby Cremins is on the sideline, doesn’t mean they’re necessarily facing Georgia Tech type talent. If Duke is really the best team in the conference (and Georgia Tech says hello), then the ACC is in real trouble.

The ACC gave Maryland what amounts to a gift opening schedule. As opposed to past years, where the Terps were forced to make some combination of a Miami-FSU-Tech road trip in the opening week of the season, Maryland actually opens the conference slate at home. FSU will be the toughest team Maryland plays the next two weeks. Then they go to Wake and BC, before home games against NC State and Miami. That is VERY favorable. No worrying about Duke, UNC, Georgia Tech or Clemson until January 31st. But it’s only a gift if Maryland takes advantage, and there’s absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

Florida State has the potential to be the surprise ACC team this season. They were dominated in both of their losses to Florida and Ohio State. They own wins over Alabama, Marquette (on a last second shot), Auburn and Georgia Tech. The Tech win, on the road, is the only win that really stands out at this point. But I like the way the Seminoles have played this season, even in their two losses. They have a physical frontcourt and enough balance in the back to win games in different ways. Soloman Alabi is their leading scorer so far. He’s averaging 12 points and 7 boards per game. At 7’1”, I’m not sure how Maryland plans on guarding him, since every player 6’6” or taller has had an easy time grabbing boards and getting putbacks. Freshman Michael Snaer has provided an immediate impact for Leonard Hamilton. So has sophomore and former Oriole outfielder Chris Singleton (sarcasm). Combined with Derwin Kitchen, Xavier Gibson, resident thug Ryan Reid, token European Deividas Dulkys and token white guy Jordan DeMercy, Florida State has a deep team for Leonard Hamilton. And as well as Singleton and Snaer have played so far, they have the potential to play much better as the season goes along. Those two aren’t close to leveling off yet. If they play up to potential, and Alabi keeps putting up his averages, then this will be a very dangerous team in a couple of months.

FSU does not shoot particularly well from outside or from the charity stripe, which is good since Maryland has been letting every team shoot threes with ease and get to the line without much effort. Other than Snaer, FSU lacks the guards who can slash to the hoop. So they should be somewhat easy to defend around the perimeter. Alabi, Singleton, Reid and the inside game are going to be a major problem. There is no doubt that the Terps are going to have to attack Alabi early and get him in foul trouble. If they don’t, then you can almost guarantee an easy double-double for him. He’ll also make Singleton and Reid much better by drawing defenders. Dino Gregory and Jordan Williams better man-up early.

I don’t see Maryland having much success inside, at least defensively. They’ve proven that even with three legitimate post players and Landon Milbourne they can’t stop half-decent forwards. I think it will be more of the same against the best forward combination that Maryland has seen so far. Even if the Terps start hitting open shots, which they haven’t yet this year, I can’t envision the Terps having any luck putting distance between FSU and themselves because they won’t be able to keep the Noles off the glass. Second chance points will be the difference, and Maryland will probably be hitting the road with a 0-1 conference record.

Florida State 74
Maryland 67

NFL Playoffs: Repeat Offenders

2010-01-08T14:24:00.005-05:00

Ended the season on a depressing 8-7 note and an even more depressing 7-8 against the spread. Here are the regular season records:

Overall: 162-78 (67.5%)
Vs. Spread: 127-108-5

How weird was this season? Well, it was my best season overall predicting games...but it was my fourth worst against the spread. Just bizzare. At least I'm trending up now, after trending down the last several seasons.

Overall
2005 - 161-79
2006 - 158-82
2007 - 156-84
2008 - 148-91-1
2009 - 162-78
(785-414-1 overall...or 65.4%)

Vs. Spread
2005 - 140-93-7
2006 - 137-94-9
2007 - 130-102-8
2008 - 119-114-7
2009 - 127-108-5
(653-511-36)

So it's playoff time, where I've done remarkably well in each season except 2007. 11 games to go, here are the first four. As always, please do not use these picks for actual gambling purposes.

SATURDAY
New York Jets (9-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)(-2.5)
4:30 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Here we go again. As soon as either of the New York teams does something decent, the sports media gets all crazy. I’ve heard everything from “the Jets are going to dominate Cincinnati again” to “the Jets are a darkhorse to win the Super Bowl” and just about anything in between. Enough. If you actually think that the Bengals team that laid down Sunday Night is the same Bengals team that will show up Saturday afternoon, then you don’t know football. Everyone is reading WAY too much into last Sunday’s game just like everyone is reading way too much into Green Bay’s win over the Cardinals (more on that later).

This game is the toughest call of the week in my opinion. It's also one of three repeat matchups from the last week of the regular season. I do like the way the Jets have played this past month…even facing several opponents who haven’t tried to win. The only thing that worries me about the Jets is the uneven quarterback play of Mark Sanchez. However, the Jets have a running game. They have the NFL’s top defense. They have a pretty good coach. Those are three necessities to succeed in January. On the other side, the Bengals had a decent running game for the first 10 weeks, but it’s disappeared recently. Statistically, their defense is pretty good, but there have been many times when it rolled over. Also, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has both feet out the door on the way to Washington (no more Greg Blache-coached defenses!!!!!!). So that’s an added distraction. Plus, the Bengals are the Bengals. This is not a franchise that gets luck when it’s needed.

The Bengals definitely have the advantage at quarterback with Carson Palmer, but I believe Rex Ryan will find a way to negate that. Lately he’s been playing it safe with Sanchez, and that strategy has worked almost perfectly for the last four games. I’m not getting swept up in Jets fever. I doubt the Jets have any potential for a serious playoff run. They will be easy pickings for either the Chargers or Colts. But I have more questions about Cincinnati than I do about New York, and I don’t feel comfortable picking against the Jets’ defense at this point in the playoffs.
Pick: Jets 20, Bengals 13

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)(-4)
8:00 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
Speaking of crazy, how about that Cowboys bandwagon. It’s filled up pretty quickly the last couple of weeks. Like the Jets, don’t believe the hype. The Cowboys time in the playoffs will be short lived. Whether they lose to the Eagles this week, or the Vikings the next, I guarantee that Dallas will not see the NFC Championship Game. End of story. Meanwhile, for the third straight year, the NFL playoff schedule has given us one of these despicable NFC East matchups. Obviously one of these teams has to win, but it also means that we are rid of one of these teams for good after Saturday night. It’s comforting to know that one of these teams will lose, and I really don’t care which one.
Pick: Eagles 23, Cowboys 17

SUNDAY
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) vs. New England Patriots (10-6)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I look at this line and laugh. The Ravens, playing a must win game against a below average Raiders team, needed Willis McGahee to come out of retirement to bail them out. Somehow I don’t think the Patriots will be as forgiving. Yes, we all know by now how important Wes Welker is to New England. We all get it. But he’s not that important. He’s absence won’t make the difference in this ballgame.

The quarterback discrepancy is huge. On one side you have Tom Brady. Broken rib and all, he’s better than 90% of the other starters in the league. On the other side you have Joe Flacco. Last season, Flacco wasn’t asked to win ballgames, but to manage them. He did a fine job of that. However, Flacco has yet to take the next step this season. In fact, he’s taken a step backward. His performance over the last 9 games, not counting a freebee against the Bears, has been dreadful. He single-handedly gave a win to Indianapolis, a win to Green Bay and two wins to Cincinnati. He almost cost the Ravens last week’s game in Oakland. Not counting the game against Chicago, in which the Bears turned the ball over five times and gave Flacco several short fields to work with, Flacco has thrown five touchdowns and seven picks. And I can hear all those Ravens fans complaining “his receivers drop passes, including Derrick Mason dropping a sure touchdown two weeks ago.” While that’s true, and you have to take Flacco’s receivers into account, defenders have dropped more picks than his receivers have dropped touchdowns this season. So it more than balances out.

In fact, Flacco’s statistics this season are eerily similar to Jason Campbell’s. And Campbell did that with an injured offensive line and no running game after Week 9. No one in their right mind would take Campbell in a playoff game right now. Why would anyone seriously consider taking a Flacco-led team against a Brady-led team? Seems like a no-brainer.
Pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 10

Green Bay Packers (11-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)(-1)
4:30 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
This appears, at least to me, to be the other no-brainer of the week. I like the Cardinals. I like them relatively big. This is the same Cardinals team that did the rope-a-dope last season during December, and then steam-rolled through the NFC. Knowing they had a weak division, the Cardinals have played it safe for the past month. They haven’t shown any tricks or gadget plays. Every time Kurt Warner starts getting hit, they pull him out of the game. It’s all very familiar. It’s basically a flashback to last season.

The Cardinals are the real darkhorse of the playoffs at this point. Their offense is a known commodity. Even with Warner finally showing some age and even with Anquan Boldin possibly on the shelf, the Cardinals offense is better than anyone other than New Orleans and possibly Indianapolis among playoff teams. The defense is better than it was last season. Ken Whisenhunt has a season of playoff experience, as do most of the players. Green Bay, on the other hand, has been way too unpredictable for my liking. They’ll come out and shutdown Dallas and Baltimore, only to get blown out by Minnesota (twice) and embarrass themselves at Tampa. The offense should put up points, but the defense isn’t reliable. Certainly not reliable enough to stop the Cardinals (again, last week not withstanding…Arizona played their starters all of 15 minutes). Had this game been in Green Bay, I’d consider the upset. But the Packers won’t have their distinct homefield advantage in these playoffs. If the Arizona defense plays as consistently as it did last January, there should be no problems for the Cardinals this weekend.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Packers 20

Redskins at Chargers: The Final Goodbye

2010-01-02T12:41:00.004-05:00

Washington Redskins (4-11) vs. San Diego Chargers (12-3)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Considering the effort the Redskins have given the last two weeks, I doubt it really makes a difference who San Diego plays or rests. The good thing is that this will be the last week of this disaster of season and it will be the last time I write about the Redskins for awhile (unless of course I feel inclined to write about the draft or the offseason or Mike Shanahan...by the way, it’s still 50-50 whether Shanahan comes here or not). That’s really saying something. I’m always a little depressed after the final football game. Even last year, when the Skins started 6-2 and then systematically ripped the heart out of their entire fanbase, I was upset I wouldn’t see another game for about nine months. This year, it’s kind of a relief. I don’t have to worry about this team embarrassing itself or its fans on national television anymore.

Congrats go out to Brian Orakpo. He managed to have an outstanding rookie season, despite resident defensive moron Greg Blache making him drop into coverage about 90% of the time. I’m not sure the Pro Bowl bid was deserved, but the outside linebacking position was a little weak in the NFC this season. If it wasn’t for Brian Cushing, Orakpo would be a shoo-in for NFL defensive rookie of the year. He should still get that honor over Cushing, but it will be close. It doesn’t hurt Cushing that his team is somewhat respectable. Orakpo doesn’t have the benefit.

Neither did London Fletcher, who once again was left off the Pro Bowl roster. I understand taking Patrick Willis over Fletcher, but Jonathan Vilma? Really? I know the Saints had a great season, but it was because of their offense. For all the ballyhoo that surrounded Gregg Williams in New Orleans, his defense was 19th in the league in points allowed and 24th in yards allowed. Those are terrible numbers. The Redskins defense was statistically better. Vilma clearly got in based on his team’s performance (really, the offense’s performance) instead of his individual effort. There’s a good chance the Saints go to the Super Bowl, and Vilma can’t play in this new age Pro Bowl, which would allow Fletcher to go in his place. Still, it’s a crime that Fletcher has yet to make a Pro Bowl in his career…and he had another Pro Bowl-caliber season on a bad team this year.

The distraction of the week for the Redskins (the distraction of the week should be a sponsored segment on this page, currently accepting applications for the right to sponsor it next season) was Jerry Gray acting like a clown. Just come out and say that you interviewed for the job already. Everyone knows you did. The NFL has even said that you did. There’s no point in lying. You are already about to become a coaching pariah. If you admit to it, you will be blackballed for a shorter amount of time. As I keep saying, the greatest thing about this season ending, other than not having to worry about how the team will embarrass itself, is that Blache and Gray are only days away from being shown the door for good. I would say don’t even let them on the plane on the way back…but since the game is in San Diego, that wouldn’t really be a punishment. These two idiots have taken a potentially talented defense and made them average all year. Well done boys. Neither of you will be hirable for the next five years. Gray may not be back in the NFL for even longer. That helps me smile.

Speaking of coaching, look who is on the other sideline this weekend. Norval Eugene Turner! He still looks as clueless as always, and his face is still as potholed as always, but his team looks like a legitimate contender. Usually the Chargers go through the first three months of the season in a fog, before waking up in December, winning a crappy division, and then bowing out in the AFC Divisional or Championship round. True to form, San Diego got off to a rough start in 2009. But they woke up earlier than expected. After starting 2-3, and falling three games behind the overrated Broncos, the Chargers reeled off ten straight wins to lock up the pitiful AFC West once again. Some of those wins have come against the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. Others have come against the Bengals, Eagles and Cowboys. They haven’t played any of the other favorites in their conference (Colts, Patriots, Steelers) during that stretch, nor have they had to play the Saints, Vikings or Cardinals. But ten in a row is ten in a row, and they’ve played some decent teams during that run.

Norv has accomplished this by basically doing nothing. As always, he is going nowhere near the defensive side of things. He’s allowed his assistants to handle most of the offensive responsibilities. Basically Norv puts on his Chargers windbreaker (or bubble coat and ski cap when away from San Diego), puts on the headset, then stares into space for three hours. And look what’s happened. The offense has finally blossomed and become consistent. The Tomlinson-Sproles rushing attack is dangerous. San Diego has finally figured out how to use Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates has stopped carrying the load and has managed to stay relatively healthy because of that. And most importantly, Philip Rivers more closely resembles Peyton Manning instead of Jay Cutler. Right now, the only offenses that rival San Diego are Indianapolis and New Orleans. And the Chargers have a better defense than New Orleans. So if Norv continues to be laissez-faire, and Jim Caldwell stops trying to screw things up in Indy, the Chargers-Colts AFC Championship game will probably be better than the Super Bowl.

Fortunately for the Redskins, the Chargers are locked into the two seed in the AFC. This game means less for them than it does for the Redskins. Norv is a very conservative coach, so I doubt we’ll see the Chargers starters in the middle of the third quarter. Then again, don’t count out Norv being a little bitter and trying to drive the final stake through Dan Snyder’s heart. I’m sure he would like some revenge after the way he was run out of town. No better way than piling on a already miserable season. To Jim Zorn, it’s been fun. I like the guy, he’s a breath of fresh air during press conferences, but it’s clear he’s not meant to be a NFL head coach. To Blache and Gray, hopefully the doors do hit you on the way out. To the original hog Joe Bugel, may your retirement be enjoyable, you will be missed. I guess there’s always a slight chance you’ll keep sticking around. To the 2009-10 Redskins, good night and good luck. Hopefully we’ll see you in better times in September.

NFL Week 17: Jet-Setting To A Golf Course

2009-12-31T15:11:00.000-05:00

With the Redskins preview slated for later this week, we say goodbye to 17 other teams in this post. Last week I was 10-5 overall and 8-7 against the spread. Here are the season stats:

Overall: 154-71 (68%)
Vs. Spread: 120-100-5

SUNDAY

Indianapolis Colts (14-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-10)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
Clearly Vegas is under the impression that the Colts won’t play their starters much or at all. I tend to believe they’ll see at least a half of action, especially after last week’s debacle against the Jets. Plus, are the Colts’ backups really that much worse than the Bills’ starters?
Pick: Colts

New Orleans Saints (13-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (7-8)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Again, Vegas doesn’t have much faith in Sean Peyton playing his starters. But knowing how Peyton likes to coach, I would expect the Saints to actively try to win this game…much more so than the Colts will.
Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) vs. Cleveland Browns (4-11)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Jack Del Rio appears to be on his way out in Jacksonville while Eric Mangini appears to have saved his job in Cleveland with a three-game winning streak. Yes, the Browns have a three-game winning streak. What a bizarre way for them to end the year.
Pick: Jaguars

Chicago Bears (6-9)(-3) vs. Detroit Lions (2-13)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Chicago did everyone a favor and helped put another dent in the Brett Favre armor. Other than that, it’s been a dreadful season in the Windy City. They are easily the NFC’s most disappointing team of the year.
Pick: Bears

New England Patriots (10-5) vs. Houston Texans (8-7)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
The Texans finally lived up to expectations last week with their beat down of the Dolphins in an important game for both teams. Too bad they waited until Week 16 to show up.
Pick: Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)(-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
1:00 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
I don’t pretend to know all the permutations of the AFC playoff picture at this point. I know that Pittsburgh will need some help to get in. I’m willing to bet if they win this game, than either the Ravens or Jets will stumble. The Steelers have a feel of a dangerous playoff team…they just need to get in first.
Pick: Steelers

New York Giants (8-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (11-4)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
We say goodbye to 17 teams and the Redskins this week. But we might as well be saying goodbye to the Vikings as well. This team is dead on its feet right now. I doubt they’d be able to win a playoff game unless it’s against Green Bay. As for the Giants: I hope their fans enjoyed two Monday’s ago. I enjoyed last Sunday.
Pick: Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (7-8)(-7) vs. St. Louis (1-14)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I can’t believe there are plenty of rumors about Mike Singletary’s job security. He’s made a hopeless team somewhat respectable again. I could see if on New Year’s Eve 2010 the 49ers are still barely floating around .500, then Singletary could get the axe. But not this season.
Pick: 49ers

Atlanta Falcons (8-7)(-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-12)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
As I predicted, the Falcons will finish around .500 and miss the playoffs. But give Atlanta credit. Anyone with a brain could see that they would come down to Earth this season, but they didn’t stagger to a 5-11 or 6-10 finish. This team will be back next year, and may even be the favorite to win the division.
Pick: Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (10-5)(-3)
4:15 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
One of three regular season finales that could be replayed next week in the first round of the playoffs. If Dallas wins, they’ll probably get the Eagles next week at this very stadium. Of course, that would mean they’d have to win a huge January game. In other words: don’t count on it.
Pick: Eagles

Green Bay Packers (10-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-5)(-3)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Another matchup that we could next week as well. The Packers are locked into the 5th or 6th seed, so it really doesn’t matter what they do. The Cardinals could still potentially get a first round bye. They’ll be playing their starters, while Green Bay will likely be resting theirs.
Pick: Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs (3-12) vs. Denver Broncos (8-7)(-13)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
Yes, the Broncos will win and finish six games better than I expected them to. However, they probably will be on the outside looking in for the playoffs.
Pick: Broncos, Chiefs cover

Baltimore Ravens (8-7)(-10) vs. Oakland Raiders (5-10)
4:15 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
So the Ravens will win by 20-27 points. Everyone will start sweating them again, just like they did after crushing Detroit and Chicago. Then they’ll go into the playoffs, commit 10+ penalties and turn the ball over at the most inopportune times. Let’s just get it over with already.
Pick: Ravens

Tennessee Titans (7-8)(-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-10)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
What, you don’t want to hear more about this game? Really? Alright, your loss.
Pick: Titans

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) vs. New York Jets (8-7)(-10)
8:20 p.m. Giants Stadium
Oh c’mon…you think the Jets are really going to win this game? My friend who is a Jets fan was so willing to pick against her team, she was going to put considerable money against the Jets. She’s so convinced they are going to blow it, and ruin all the breaks they’ve caught the last few weeks. You know what? She’s right.
Pick: Bengals

Cowboys at Redskins: Once You Learn To Quit, It Becomes A Habit

2009-12-26T16:32:00.002-05:00

Dallas Cowboys (9-5) vs. Washington Redskins (4-10)
8:20 p.m. FedEx Field
There are things that Redskins fans have to face about last Monday’s game. The Redskins, as a whole, gave up. I’m not saying every player quit on the team. But the majority did. The entire secondary quit. The receiving corps quit. Most of the offensive and defensive lines quit. Most of the coaching staff quit. It’s embarrassing. That’s all there really is to say.

Now is it the most embarrassing loss this season for an NFL team like Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden would have you believe. No. I think the Tennessee loss to New England will take the distinction for 2009. It wasn’t even the most embarrassing loss of the year for the Redskins. I’d argue that the losses to Detroit and Kansas City were much worse, since the they were still meaningful games at the time. But make no mistake about it, that game was brutal. At home, against a division rival, on national tv…yikes. I’m actually proud to say I watched the entire game. When the team eventually bounces back, the fans who forced themselves to sit through that mess can say they were there when things hit rock bottom. The team may have quit, but I didn’t.

Most of the attention has been focused on the fake field goal at the end of the first half. The more I watched that play, and the more I thought about it, it was actually a decent call that was executed horrendously. I’m not really here to defend the execution, but more so to defend the decision. It was 24-0. A field goal, if Graham Gano converts, makes it 24-3. Ok, big deal. “Experts” have argued that the Redskins needed some kind of momentum going into the half. Would a field goal to make the deficit 21 really have made any difference? I highly doubt it. Conversely, if the Redskins try the fake, get a touchdown, and know they have the ball first in the 2nd half, a successful TD would have actually changed some of the momentum. That’s why the play was called in the first place.

The design of the play was pretty good as well. Watch the whole play. The Redskins weren’t trying to throw the ball to the left side of the field where there were six Giants players. The play was designed to go to Todd Yoder. Yoder was the center on the play, and he was supposed to slip to the right side of the field unguarded after the snap and a chip block. The majority of the team on the left side, and Malcolm Kelly going across the field to the left side, was supposed to distract the Giants defense. And it worked! The only Giant covering Yoder on the play was a backup linebacker. Unfortunately, neither Yoder or Kelly chipped their defender. So instead of one Giant having a free rush at Hunter Smith, three Giants had a clean shot. If Yoder and Kelly chip their men, then Smith can roll right, has Yoder one-on-one with a linebacker, and an empty field to lob the ball in. Since Smith had no time, he panicked and lobbed the ball to the left side. He knew he’d have two receivers near the endzone, but of course, half the Giants defense was already there as well. Again, it obviously wasn’t executed correctly. But take another look at the design of the play before you start saying how massively retarded it was. Also remember that this team has executed two other fake kicks this season for touchdowns. The one against Denver basically won the Redskins the game. Neither one of the successful plays got close to the attention that the failure did. The only thing that puzzles me is that the Redskins chose to run the play after they showed it to New York, and the Giants called a timeout. According to postgame comments, it seemed most of the players wanted to run it anyway. So Jim Zorn let them. That’s not something I would agree to…I may have sent my offense on the field if I wanted the touchdown instead of the field goal. Still, I see what Zorn was trying to do.

That play was really the least of my concerns. Seeing Laron Landry, Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Kareem Moore and Reed Doughty quit as a unit was distressing. Only Fred Smoot was making any sort of effort out there. It’s just embarrassing. The whole Albert Haynesworth fiasco after the game and then later this week is also tough to stomach. However, what Haynesworth said after the game what I’ve been saying since Week 1. The defensive scheme is terrible. Greg Blache is one of the real problems on this team. Eli Manning throws poorly every time an opponent breathes on him. So why did the Redskins blitz Manning on less that 10% of the passing plays? It makes no sense. I said as much after the Redskins loss Week 1 to…Eli Manning and the Giants! The same strategy failed the Redskins that week as well. Why in the world would Blache try the same thing again? Instead of bashing Haynesworth as a malcontent, maybe the media should start analyzing the Redskins blitz schemes. It’s not hard. There aren’t many blitzes to analyze. It wouldn’t take that long. As talented as the Redskins are defensively, there is no reason that they shouldn’t be blitzing near the league average of around 33%. As was the case last season, the Redskins are dead last in attempted blitzes. They blitz less than 20% of the time. Not only is it bad strategy, it’s tough to watch. I’m sick of watching the Redskins hold opponents to 2-3 yards on 1st and 2nd down, then give up 3rd and 7’s or 3rd and 8’s again and again. Haynesworth, in his own convoluted way, is absolutely right. Thank God I only have to watch two more games of a Blache-coached defense.

On to Dallas, who have once again become the media’s darlings after winning a December football game. Against the previously undefeated Saints no less. Meh. It was a good win, don’t get me wrong. But are the overall problems in Dallas washed away? Not even close. The Cowboys are still 1-2 in December, and have still yet to win a January game with Tony Romo or Wade Phillips in charge. Heck, it’s been more than a decade since they won one. A win over a Saints team that certainly did not play very well, doesn’t change that. I said at the beginning of the month that Dallas was likely to go 2-3 in their final five games, and I still stand by that. If I’m any one of the other five teams in the playoffs, Dallas is the team I want to play (unless I’m Minnesota…then I’d rather see Green Bay). The overwhelming pressure to win a playoff game, along with the incompetence of the head coach and quarterback, are pretty much going to lock the Cowboys into a one-and-done situation. If they even make the playoffs. It’s likely they will, but they are far from clinching a spot.

So that’s how both of these teams come in to the 100th meeting of this rivalry. This game will not be decided by anything Dallas does. I don’t care that they had two extra days to prepare for it (thanks NFL). It all depends on which Redskins team shows up. If it’s the one we saw from November to Mid-December, the Redskins win this game. I’m going on record right here. If this game is close, the Redskins will win it. However, if the team really has quit, and the Giants game was more of a sign of things to come instead of a blip on the radar screen, then this game is going to get as ugly as it did on Monday. It would be really nice to see the team put forth any sort of effort and make the Cowboys fans’ lives a little more painful.