#13 Houston Cougars (19-15, 7-9 CUSA) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (23-8, 13-3 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 1st Round, Midwest Region
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA
Even though I briefly mentioned it during my ACC Semifinals preview, I wasn’t all that upset with Maryland’s loss in the ACC Tournament. I was over it in about ten minutes. It simply wasn’t that important for the Terps and it mattered for Georgia Tech. Maryland shot horribly the whole game. Jordan Williams was saddled with fouls. Sean Mosley scored exactly zero points. Other than forcing a bunch of turnovers, Maryland was outplayed in just about every other statistical category. The positives: no injuries and a good game from Landon Milbourne. Boy, did he need to have one. It gave them a week to rest up for the real tournament. So it was hard to be too upset about it.
It’s a good thing Maryland got a week off before the start of this thing. Before the selection show, I think most fans would have been happy with a five seed, but expecting somewhere around a six. The committee showed Maryland “respect” by giving them a four. But that’s respect with an asterisk. Despite getting one of 16 protected seeds, Maryland was sent as far away from home as possible. Why Wisconsin couldn’t be sent to Spokane and Maryland sent to Jacksonville is beyond me. That arrangement would have made sense for both teams. More importantly, the Terps were given a four seed in what is now being called the Region of Death.
Try to follow along if you can. At the top of this bracket is Kansas. Kansas was the tournament’s #1 overall seed (in name only). They are regular season and tournament champions of the best conference in basketball this season. At the bottom of this bracket is the two seed Ohio State. The Buckeyes were co-champions and tournament champions of the Big Ten. A hot Georgetown team
was the three seed, but Little Racist III and company are coming back to D.C. a little early. How do you give up 97 points to Ohio? To sum up for JTIII…two years of Greg Monroe and Austin Freeman, but zero NCAA Tournament wins. Yikes. The fifth seed, potentially waiting for Maryland on Sunday, is Michigan State. The Spartans were another one of the co-champions of the Big Ten. Even further down the list you find sixth seed Tennessee. The Vols were ranked pretty much the entire season. Oklahoma State is the seven seed, one of only two teams to beat Kansas all season. The Cowboys were uber-competitive in the Big XII. Northern Iowa and their potential first round draft pick forward are in the region. Maryland’s nemesis Georgia Tech is even here too. If you asked me to create a nightmare bracket for the Terps, it would look something like this.
Just look at the coaches other than Gary Williams. You have former National Champion Bill Self. Former National Champion Tom Izzo (and that’s just on the top half of the bracket). Final Four participant Thad Matta is here. As much as I’ve made fun of him, Paul Hewitt led the Jackets to the Championship Game in 2004. This is just a brutal collection of 16 teams. By far one of the hardest regions I’ve seen in a long time. The other three regions are soft (the South is extremely soft). It’s as if the committee assembled the four regions separately, then slapped them together at the last minute without checking their overall body of work. I have no problem with Maryland playing hard teams. But they’d have to potentially beat Michigan State AND Kansas just to get to the regional finals…not even the Final Four. That’s a little extreme.
Well, there’s nothing Maryland can do about it. They have to play who they are assigned to play. In the first round, the Terrapins draw the C-USA Champion Houston Cougars. The Cougs are led by Tom Penders. That’s the same Tom Penders that built Texas up from the ground and the same Tom Penders who was fired from the Longhorns (and later George Washington) for a number of scandals. In Austin, Penders was run out of town for doctoring players’ grades. On a scale of one-to-ten, that’s certainly not the worst offense that ever occurred. However, Penders reign in Foggy Bottom was cut short after several problems. Not only were many of his players in question academically, Atilla Cosby was accused of rape and possessing firearms on campus. That’s disgusting, but it was made even worse by the fact that Penders tried to hide that from the GW administration. There was also a phone card issue with his son, who at the time was one of the assistant coaches. Those are just the cliff-notes of some of the issues. Google the rest if you are interested.
So Penders took a brief leave of absence then was forced into hiding in Houston. He built the Cougars up during his first three seasons on campus. Then when high expectations hit in 2006, his team bottomed out at 18-15. Following two 20-win seasons, but no NCAA Tournament appearances, Penders was on thin ice entering the 09-10 year. When his team finished the year 15-15, with losses to San Diego, Texas-San Antonio, Central Florida (twice), Southern Miss and Tulane, it was a well-known secret that Penders either had to win the CUSA Tournament or hit the unemployment line. The Cougars won four straight, including a thrilling comeback in the final against UTEP to claim the Tournament and save Penders’ job.
The Houston Cougars are led on the court by Aubrey Coleman. Coleman averaged an eye-popping 25.6 points a game. Not only was that best on the team and best in the conference, that was best in the entire NCAA. On top of his 25.6 ppg, he also averages 7.4 boards a game and 2.6 assists per. He’s a little reckless with the ball at times, and he doesn’t play a whole lot of defense. But if there’s someone who is easily comparable to the 6’4” guard, it’s none other than Greivis Vasquez. Like Vasquez, Coleman rarely sees a shot he doesn’t like. He’ll spot up from deep, but he’s much more effective when he’s driving to hoop. There aren’t a lot of ways to stop him. Taking a charge is one way, but that may come with
other consequences. Like his coach, he comes with some baggage.
The problem with Coleman doing a little bit of everything is that few other players on Houston do anything. This is as close to a one-man team as you will see in college basketball. Most the plays that are run are for Coleman. They’ll set a lot of ball screens and pick-and-rolls for Coleman to get open. Other than that, the Cougars run some offensive sets for 6’4” guard Kelvin Lewis. Most of the other players are left to fend for themselves offensively. The Terps are going to face a team that is smaller than they are, and one of the few teams in Division 1 that are statistically worse at rebounding than they are. I watched most of the UTEP-Houston final, and I didn’t see one organized play run for any of the bigger Cougars. Houston brings new meaning to the term “guard-oriented”.
Jordan Williams will probably have a height advantage like this in the game today.
Other than Coleman and Lewis, the Terps will have to contend with about five other Houston players. Penders rarely goes eight-deep. Maurice McNeil is the only forward of note. He’s similar to Milbourne in a lot of ways, but he doesn’t have the range that Landon has. Kendrick Washington is the other forward who sees significant playing time. He’s a hefty freshman (6’7”, 270 lbs) that isn’t really in the shape to be much of a factor. The Cougars also use Zamal Nixon, Adam Brown and Desmond Wade in their backcourt. All are quick, but undersized guards. None of them shoot particularly well, especially from outside. The Cougars only shoot 35% for three as a team…and that number was much worse until a week ago. Coleman doesn’t shoot well from outside, but Lewis does. The two play off each other very well.
The big question for the Cougars is defense. While Houston does force a good deal of turnovers, they allow their opponents to get too many open looks. This is a team that gave up 92 points to Memphis, 94 points to SMU, 99 points to Louisiana Tech and 112 points to Nevada (in regulation) this season. The Cougs allowed nearly 75 points a game, and it wasn’t like they were playing in a powerhouse conference.
For Maryland, it’s simple. If the Terps play their game, they win. Houston was a team that wouldn’t have been in this tournament if it wasn’t for a hot finish. This is a team that finished under .500 in a lousy conference. For the first time all season, Maryland has the height advantage. The Terrapins don’t only have to own the boards, they have to dominate them. Assuming that Vasquez and Coleman cancel themselves out, Jordan Williams and Milbourne should give Maryland the advantage. Houston likes to run, so does Maryland. Houston likes to use their guards to win, so does Maryland. The Terps and Cougars play similar games, but the Terps do it at a higher level…and Houston doesn’t have anyone like Williams inside. However, I hope the Terps were paying attention to the carnage around the country yesterday. Five double-digit seeds won. Tennessee, Villanova, New Mexico and a host of others were awfully close to losing. Maryland could easily go down if they get cute, allow the other Cougars to contribute by worrying too much about Coleman and if Milbourne disappears again. Look ahead to Michigan State and Kansas at your own risk. I think Maryland’s seniors won’t let them lose here, at least not against a team that doesn’t play defense.
Maryland 82
Houston 71Meanwhile, I took it on the chin a bit yesterday. I lost a lot of the toss-up games. Since there were so many great and close contests yesterday, it was hard to be upset about it. But the overall record is an ugly
9-7 (with special thanks to UNLV, San Diego State, Texas and Vanderbilt).
EAST REGIONJacksonville Memorial Arena
Jacksonville, FL#13 Wofford Terriers (26-8, 15-3 SoCon) vs.
#4 Wisconsin Badgers (23-8, 13-5 Big Ten)
We start out the 2nd day with yet another trendy upset pick (the four seeds seem to be targeted this season). I would agree with that if Wisconsin was the type of team that was aggressive offensively and turned the ball over a healthy amount. Unfortunately for the Terriers, making their first NCAA Tournament appearance, Wisconsin is not one of those teams. Bo Ryan’s squads may be boring to watch. They may play like there’s a lid on the basket. They may remind you of 1950’s basketball. But being a team that’s careless with the basketball isn’t one of their traits.
Pick: Wisconsin 62, Wofford 53
#12 Cornell Big Red (27-4, 13-1 Ivy) vs.
#5 Temple Owls (29-5, 14-2 A-10)Contrary to all the bitching this week, I don’t think that either of these teams are poorly seeded. The committee screwed up a lot of the seeds, but I have a hard time getting upset about an Ivy League team being given a 12-seed.
Like the matchup above, this is yet another trendy upset special. Heck, if you listen to Jay Bilas long enough, you’d believe that Cornell is destined for the Elite Eight. They aren’t. They aren’t bound for the Sweet 16. They aren’t even bound for Sunday. Let me repeat what I said before. This is an Ivy League team. They aren’t coached by Pete Carril. Ryan Wittman is a nice player. The team as a whole can shoot well. But their interior game isn’t going to scare many teams. At least teams in the NCAA Tournament. Jeff Foote is a good forward for the Ivy League, but he’s a stick figure. The Big Red are also running in to a Temple team that plays some of the best perimeter defense in the nation. In other words, look elsewhere for an upset.
Pick: Temple 55, Cornell 46
In case you didn't know, that's Jeff Foote. Chances are that's the power forward you have playing in the Sweet 16. Sorry it's too late to chance your bracket.HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY#15 Morgan State Bears (27-9, 15-1 MEAC) vs.
#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (27-6, 13-5 Big East)I’ve been on the fence all week about the Queers. I’m still on the fence about them, even though I’ve locked my bracket. This team could easily lose in the next round, since they have very rarely played a full 40-minute game. Everyone looks and sees “Big East Champion” next to their name, but you have to remember that they played the 11th, 7th and 8th seeded teams in that 3-week long tournament (at least that’s how long it feels). They didn’t have to play Pitt, Nova or Syracuse. So it’s not that impressive. And case you missed it, the Big East was 1-3 yesterday, and the one was Villanova winning in overtime against Robert Morris. That doesn’t bode well for an already overrated conference. Ugh, I already regret picking them to go as far as I did.
Pick: West Virginia 68, Morgan State 49
#10 Missouri Tigers (22-10, 10-6 Big XII) vs.
#7 Clemson Tigers (21-10, 9-7 ACC)One of three ACC-Big XII first round matchups, and one of two that are 7-10 games. I don’t really know what to do with either one. I’ve been leaning toward picking the Big XII schools based on the strength of their conference. But both games present favorable matchups for the ACC teams.
I was impressed with Missouri until about late February. They were non-competitive against Kansas, then dropped their first Big XII Tournament game against awful Nebraska. So they are cold. Their run-and-gun, high-pressure style may actually benefit Clemson. Maryland tried pressing the living daylights out of the Tigers, and it failed miserably. Mizzou’s pressure defense could help Clemson get easy baskets. On the flip side, Clemson’s Tigers are even colder than Missouri’s. The loss to NC State in the ACC Tourney was abysmal. Because of Oliver Purnell, Dino Gaudio and Leonard Hamilton, I have a feeling that the ACC has no real chance doing well in the Big Dance. When in doubt, go with the better coach. Mike Anderson > Purnell. Also when in doubt, and you figure a game will be close, go with the team that hits free throws. Clemson is terrible at the stripe.
Pick: Missouri 75, Clemson 73
SOUTH REGION
#16 Ark.-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (18-15, 14-4 SWAC) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (29-5, 13-3 ACC)
It’s been repeated ad nauseam that the Blue Devils don’t deserve a #1 seed nor do they deserve an easy bracket. I don’t necessarily agree with the #1 seed argument. They had just as good a case as WVU, Ohio State or Kansas State. But the soft bracket, one of the softest I’ve ever seen, is a legitimate argument.
This article may shed some light on the situation. It all adds up. The NCAA is in a contract year. UNC, UConn and Arizona are nowhere to be found. Other than Kansas, a Midwest team that won’t draw the ratings, Dook is all CBS and the committee think they have. So Kansas is the #1 overall seed in name only. It’s clear that the committee cleared the road for Dook as much as they could. I’ll go more in to this on Sunday.
Pick: Duke 76, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54
#9 Louisville Cardinals (20-12, 11-7 Big East) vs.
#8 California Golden Bears (23-10, 13-5 Pac-10)
Remember back in November when I said that there were two teams ranked ahead of Maryland that shouldn’t be? Those two teams were Cal and Michigan. While the Wolverines were a complete and utter failure this season, Cal also proved me right despite winning the Pac-10 regular season crown outright. They’ve dealt with some injuries, but they’ve also simply played poorly at times. Their losses to Oregon State and USC came with their entire roster healthy. I’m not sure what the excuse could be for dropping those games. Jerome Randle put up similar numbers to last year. Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson (between injuries) did as well. However, the rest of the team disappeared. Cal gets relatively nothing from their bench. Their rebounding effort is well below average. Every time they step out of conference, there’s a chance that they’ll be bullied off the court.
Louisville sort of got their act together in the last couple week of the regular season. They’ve had a lot of turmoil off the court this year, and managed to overcome it. I hate picking against Rick Pitino in the tournament. I just wish the Cardinals’ strategy this season was something more comprehensive than jacking up 30 three’s a game. Louisville is well rested, so they should be able to hit shots during the first weekend.
Pick: Louisville 74, California 68Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA#13 Siena Saints (27-6, 17-1 MAAC) vs.
#4 Purdue Boilermakers (27-5, 14-4 Big Ten)If you are Saints coach Fran McCaffery, you are both annoyed and thrilled. He’s got to be annoyed with the 13th seed, considering that Siena was a nine seed last year and won a game. This team is easily better than last year’s, yet they are four seeds lower.
However, the #4 seed they are facing might as well be a dead team walking. The Boilers have been in shock since Robbie Hummel tore his ACL. Since that time, Purdue is 3-2, but three of the wins came against Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern. Two of those wins were very close. In their two losses to Michigan and Minnesota, Purdue was never in the game and failed to score 50 points. Instead of rallying around E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, it appears the Boilermakers are going to go the way of Cincinnati the year that Kenyon Martin broke his leg. I don’t really like Siena, I just don’t trust Purdue.
Pick: Siena 64, Purdue 57
#12 Utah State Aggies (27-7, 14-2 WAC) vs.
#5 Texas A&M Aggies (23-9, 11-5 Big XII)Really, the NCAA committee needs to double-check their work. First of all, you have the Bears-Bearkats (Baylor-Sam Houston St), Tigers-Tigers (Mizzou and Clemson) and Aggies-Aggies in the first round. Second, this is the third straight year that A&M has to open against a team from the Beehive State. After playing the Stormin’ Mormons the last two seasons, the Aggies get Utah State in round one this year. I thought the committee was supposed to stop these kind of things from happening.
Anyway, Texas A&M is the kind of team that should be built to succeed in the tourney. This team looked shaky in the early season, but after Derrick Roland broke his leg in gruesome fashion in late December, they re-invented themselves and got better (are you listening Purdue). The Aggies have a star player and go-to scorer in Donald Sloan. They have three other players that average nearly 10 points per game. There’s balance in both the frontcourt and backcourt. They don’t turn the ball over a lot. They scrap inside. They rebound well. They’ve had to play in the toughest conference in college basketball. Mark Turgeon has coaching experience in this tournament (with Wichita State). It’s all there for this team to succeed. The only thing they don’t do well is shoot free throws, which will probably come back to bite them somewhere.
Utah State is an interesting team that at one point won 17 games in a row. However, they didn’t play the most challenging schedule. BYU (who they beat) and St. Mary’s (who they did not) were basically their toughest out-of-conference games. They lost twice to New Mexico State, who beat them in the WAC Finals. While they are statistically better than their Aggie counterparts, the stats are somewhat hollow. Tai Wesley and Nate Bendall are pretty good forwards. They have enough muscle inside to give Turgeon and company trouble. I just don’t see them beating a team that’s as tested as A&M.
Pick: Texas A&M 70, Utah State 62
MIDWEST REGIONSpokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA#12 New Mexico State Aggies (22-11, 11-5 WAC) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (24-8, 14-4 Big Ten)
This tournament just keeps getting more Aggie-rific. How ‘bout some kudos to the Land of Enchantment. The state of New Mexico somehow managed to get their only two Division 1 programs into the big dance. Well done.
The Aggies get themselves a beatable five seed. We’ll HOPEFULLY have a chance to talk a lot more about the Spartans on Sunday (unless NMSU pulls off an upset), but the end of the year didn’t go very well for Michigan State. Chris Allen was suspended. Delvon Roe has been dealing with a potentially severe knee injury. The frontcourt, which has long been a Tom Izzo strength, faded a little bit the last month of the season. The Spartans have struggled with consistency since early February. They lost three in a row at one point. They barely scratched across two wins against Penn State. They got bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. So it hasn’t been a great ending.
Still, it’s important to remember that this team is still coached by Izzo and led by Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan. This was a team that was ranked #2 in the AP preseason poll. This is a team that returns all but one player from their squad last season…a team that lost in the National Championship game. If anyone can turn this team around in the NCAA Tournament, it’s Izzo. The Aggies will have a chance if they get MSU into a track meet. Five players scored more than 10 ppg during the season. That includes Jahmar Young who averaged 20.5. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Aggies out-gunned Sparty, but I know better than to bet against Izzo.
Pick: Michigan State 74, New Mexico State 67
Bradley Center
Milwaukee, WI
#15 UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (20-9, 12-4 Big West) vs.
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (27-7, 14-4 Big Ten)This past September, I stopped by UCSB on a great road trip from San Diego to San Francisco. The school is actually located in Goleta, not Santa Barbara. The campus is located between low-lying mountains and the Pacific Ocean. The architecture around the school is beautiful and fits in perfectly with the scenery. However, I was disappointed by the heavily advertised lagoon. Between the main part of campus and the Pacific proper, the ocean forms a lagoon on campus property. I imagined clear bluish-green water with tons of coeds around. Instead, it was basically a pond with algae all over it. Because of the shoddy state of the lagoon, and also because of Evan Turner, I’m going with the Buckeyes in this one.
Pick: Ohio State 73, UCSB 51
UCSB campus and lagoon. It didn't look that nice when I was there
#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (22-12, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-10, 9-7 Big XII)
I know that the Cowboys have a great backcourt. James Anderson is one of the better combo guards in the entire country. For Tech, as we know by now, their backcourt only shows up against Maryland. Most of the time, their guards have trouble simply inbounding the ball.
I’m going with the Jackets for two reasons. The first is the intimidating frontline of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal (even Zach Peacock has played well recently). Ok State is very small inside. The second is the way both teams finished the season. The Boys floundered at the end of the Big XII season, while the Jackets made it to the NCAA Tournament. True, the Jackets beat UNC, an uninterested Maryland team and NC State, but at least they got that winning feeling.
Pick: Georgia Tech 69, Oklahoma State 63
WEST REGIONHSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY#16 Vermont Catamounts (25-9, 12-4 America East) vs.
#1 Syracuse Orange (28-4, 15-3 Big East)If any 16 seed is ever going to win in this tournament, this is the one. Syracuse will probably be without Arinze Onuaku, which means they’ll play six guys. The best athlete on the floor isn’t going to be wearing an Orange uniform, but will actually be Vermont’s Marqus Blakely. The loss of Onuaku will only make Blakely more effective inside. The Syracuse 2-3 zone is great, unless a team has a good shooting night. And the Catamounts can definitely shoot (45% as a team). Plus, these two teams have
a history. If you need another reason, Gus Johnson will be calling the games in Buffalo. If a #1 seed loses in the first round, I think it will be a requirement that Johnson be there. Even though it’s going to take a big undertaking from Vermont to win this game, I wouldn’t be stunned if the Orange find themselves in trouble…or even lose this game.
Pick: Syracuse 78, Vermont 61
#9 Florida State Seminoles (22-9, 10-6 ACC) vs.
#8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-6, 12-2 WCC)We know all about FSU. This is a defense first team that has the potential to win any game they play because they’ll scrap, make it low-scoring and ugly. That said, the Noles have problems getting consistent scoring from anybody, their offense is too stagnant to do damage in the NCAA Tournament and their coach is Leonard Hamilton. That’s a lot of problems for a team to overcome to make a deep run.
Mark Few’s bunch is the least talented in recent memory, but it’s probably one of the best coaching jobs that Few has done. Remember, this is a Gonzaga team that lost three superstars, and Matt Bouldin was the only player to return that contributed significantly to last year’s squad. Few’s coaching job is reminiscent of Gary Williams’ coaching effort last season. However, there just isn’t enough talent on this team for a deep run. While both teams could present big trouble for Syracuse in the 2nd round, it’s impossible to know when either team will come out and lay an egg. I’ll go with the proven coach for the W in this game.
Pick: Gonzaga 71, Florida State 66
Bradley Center
Milwaukee, WI#14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies (26-8, 17-1 Summit) vs.
#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (24-8, 13-5 Big East)Didn’t the Steelers already lose to the Raiders this season? I don’t like Pittsburgh’s chances with Ben Roethlisberger potentially looking at jail time. No seriously folks, this probably won’t be much of a game. Despite Jamie Dixon’s looooooong history of losing with higher seeded teams in this tournament, even he won’t screw things up here. Oakland played very few teams of significance. Every time the Grizzlies did, they were blown out. This won’t be any different.
Pick: Pittsburgh 73, Oakland 54
#11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (21-13, 9-9 Big Ten) vs.
#6 Xavier Musketeers (24-8, 14-2 A-10)First of all, Tubby Smith earns credit for policing his team this season. He had players in trouble off the court and in trouble academically…and they all got the boot. For a team on the bubble fringe all season, and a team that had a good deal of expectations, that’s not an easy decision to make. So good on Tubby, who I still feel got a raw deal at Kentucky.
The Gophers have a lot of nice pieces, but it really hasn’t added up for Minnesota all season. They score over 70 points a game. They are an above average rebounding team. Minnesota has a 1.3/1 turnover/assist ratio. They shoot well from everywhere (47% fg, 70% ft, 40% 3-pt). They play good defense…certainly enough to hang in the defense-obsessed Big Ten. So why inconsistent? It just seems that the Gophers can’t get everyone on the same page at the same time. They’ve been inconsistent all season long, and that probably won’t change in the tournament.
Xavier is a proven commodity. Jordan Crawford is one heck of a player. Chris Mack is just the next in the long line of coaches to have success at the small private school. The Musketeers always seem to overachieve this time of year. I don’t expect this year to be any different. As you see, I have them in the Sweet 16, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they go even further. I think the Gophers are going to run into trouble outside of their low-scoring conference.
Pick: Xavier 74, Minnesota 66
