2008 AFC Preview
And so begins season number four. In case you just tuned in, and it’s more than likely you just accidentally stumbled upon this page, I talk about football and college basketball, then I take four months off as I wait for football season to come around again. Basically, I preview all the games and then tell you who’s going to win them. My record over the last three years has been as immaculate as a Franco Harris catch. I dare you to find someone who has done better against the spread and picking the games straight up. More on that later in the week.
What I’m going to attempt to improve is my predictions at the beginning of the season. Frankly, over the last two seasons, they’ve stunk. Just take a look at last year. Cincinnati to go 11-5 and win the AFC Central? The Bears winning the NFC North? The Saints winning the Super Bowl? Damn, what was I on? I’ll try to do better this year and I’ll continue to remind you about my amazing accuracy from week to week on the individual game predictions. We’ll start with the AFC, with the NFC and Week 1 picks coming later.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
Projected Record: 12-4
Offense: A
Defense: B-
Coaching: A with illegal videotape/B without it
Tough Month: None
I will admit, grudgingly, that the 2007 Patriots were one of the better teams we have seen in the last 15 years or so. Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for the rest of the country, they did not win the Super Bowl and therefore cannot go down as one of the great teams of all-time. But the Patriots run to 18-0 and the fact that they were less than a minute away from winning the 19th game, makes them the best runner-up in the history of the NFL. I guess you have that going for you Pats fans.
Lost in the ether of their nearly perfect run and an enjoyable loss in the Super Bowl, was the fact that the Patriots put up their statistics and gaudy record against one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. Last season, it was the easiest schedule by far. So, like most teams that have made the Super Bowl, the Patriots received one of the league’s toughest schedules the following year. Wait…what’s that? They didn’t? They have the easiest schedule in the league again? Um, ok…
Look, I know that most of the reason the Patriots schedule is so soft is because they play in the AFC East. I know that 14 of the 16 games are scheduled years in advance. But, since the Patriots keep getting rewarded with weaker competition than the rest of the league, maybe it’s time for the NFL to change the way they do the scheduling. Maybe it’s not such a great idea to schedule the Pats years in advance to play the AFC West and NFC West, two of the weakest divisions in the league. Maybe it’s time for the NFL to go back to the flexible way they used to do the scheduling, in which 4-6 games were based on the previous season’s finish instead of the 2 games that the NFL currently uses. Whatever the case may be, it doesn’t make any sense for a team that went 18-1, was a miracle play away from winning the Super Bowl, to receive the easiest schedule in the NFL the following season. The defending AFC champs should not open their season at home against Kansas City, at the Jets, home against Miami and with a roadie against the 49ers. Those are four teams that would be lucky to win 20 games combined.
Now, will the Patriots go 16-0 during the regular season again? No. The AFC East has improved slightly. Buffalo can make some noise. The Jets, while having to entertain the Brett “Look At Me, Look At Me” Favre media circus, at least improved slightly at the quarterback position. The Dolphins may be bad, but they can’t possibly be worse than the 1-15 mark they had in 2007. Plus the Patriots have four, count them, four West Coast trips (San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle and Oakland). Last season, the Patriots didn’t cross Flyover Country until their trip to Arizona for the Super Bowl. There is also a home game against Pittsburgh and a road contest in Indianapolis. There are at least three losses in this schedule, as easy as it may be.
The Patriots offense will be just as good as last season. There are very few teams in the AFC that can do to New England what the Giants did to them in the Super Bowl. Jacksonville is really the only squad with the defensive line to pressure Tom Brady for 60 minutes (and conveniently, they don’t play the Pats). Defensively, the Pats are getting old quickly. Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi are 35, Mike Vrabel is 33, Adalius Thomas is 32 and Fernando Bryant is 31. Their secondary was already suspect before losing Asante Samuel, and if John Lynch was their big addition (and big release), they may be in big trouble.
The Patriots should be able to use their talent and their schedule and their weak division to cruise to another AFC East title. Winning the conference this year will be much tougher. I don’t think they’ll do it.
2. Buffalo Bills
Projected Record: 8-8
Offense: B-
Defense: C
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: September (Seattle, at Jacksonville, Oakland, at St. Louis)
The pieces are here for the Bills. The offensive and defensive line have been slowly upgraded. Good offensive weapons are present with Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans and Josh Reed. The secondary, once the worst unit in the league, is respectable. And even though the Jets and Dolphins have made strides toward respectability, Buffalo is still further along in their progression. The problem is, and continues to be, the quarterback spot. Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman wouldn’t give me much comfort as a Bills fan. Add in Dick Jauron, who looks half-asleep on the sideline during most games, and the two positions of leadership (coach and QB) are lacking. Despite the talent surrounding Edwards and Losman, this is a .500 team.
3. New York Jets
Projected Record: 7-9
Offense: C+
Defense: C
Coaching: D+
Tough Month: November (at Buffalo, St. Louis, at New England, at Tennessee, Denver)
Brett Favre comes in and everyone predicts the Jets to go 10-6. At worst 9-7. Have they seen the Jets recently? Thomas Jones’ best days are behind him. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are always hurt. There is no reliable tight end. The offensive line is getting better, but Brandon Moore and Damien Woody on the right side are a huge question mark. The defense actually regressed in the offseason. The secondary and linebacking corps are well below NFL standards. Eric Mangini is, at best, an average coach. He’s basically adopted Bill Belichick’s rosy demeanor without incorporating the wins and illegal cameras. There’s not a whole lot to like here. 7-9 may be generous.
As for Favre, I’m sure that you were as tired of the around-the-clock coverage as I was and were glad to finally have the whole ordeal over with. ESPN had been planning their coverage from the moment he retired because they knew, and we knew, that Favre was going to play this season. The best thing that came out of the endless saga was the smearing of Favre’s reputation. I’ve been saying for years that Favre was a terrible team player and a jerk off the field. But since Favre used that “aww-shucks” accent and winked at the camera a couple of times, the sports media ate it up and portrayed him as a combination of Tedy Bruschi, Peyton Manning and Derek Jeter. The great Brett Favre. The Golden Boy who can do no wrong. Except he held the Packers, a team he claimed to care a good deal about, hostage for the past six months. Really, he’s been holding them hostage the past three seasons. Despite a solid 2007, Favre had a terrible 2005 and 2006. It’s more likely we see the 05-06 Favre in 2008 than the one we saw last season. So Favre will have a below average year, the New York media will jump on him (because they aren’t as forgiving as the rest of country), Mangini will probably be fired after the season, and I’ll enjoy the whole thing. New York and Favre deserve each other.
4. Miami Dolphins
Projected Record: 3-13
Offense: D
Defense: D-
Coaching: D
Tough Month: September (NY Jets, at Arizona, at New England)
All you need to know about the Dolphins is that they will start five rookies (if you include kicker Dan Carpenter). That is almost unheard of in the NFL. There is no reason to waste any more of my time or your time talking about Miami. They won’t be as bad as 1-15, but they won’t be much better.
AFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Record: 10-6
Offense: B+
Defense: A-
Coaching: B+
Tough Month: November (at Washington, Indianapolis, San Diego, Cincinnati, at New England)
Now this is what a first place team’s schedule should look like. At Cleveland and Philly in September. At Jacksonville and hosting the Giants in October. The Murderers Row in November. Dallas, Cleveland and Tennessee in December. Other than two games against Baltimore and their opener against Houston, there’s nowhere to breathe during the season.
The talent is there to survive this slate, but it’s going to be very tough. Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall are a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield. Ben Roethlisberger has two capable receivers and a very good tight end to throw to. The offensive line is a little bit green, but they should be able to hold their own. Defensively, it’s stud player after stud player. There is speed and strength up and down this unit, and there’s depth too. Opposing teams have never been able to run against the Steelers, and it’s going to be awful tough to pass. I like the Steelers to bruise their way to another AFC North title.
2. Cleveland Browns
Projected Record: 8-8
Offense: A-
Defense: C
Coaching: C
Tough Month: December (at Tennessee, at Philadelphia, Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh)
I’m not sold on the Browns. They are considered the dark horse in the AFC and they are the team the media’s picking this season to make “the jump”. Usually that team fails to do so. On paper, the Browns offense can be scary (hence, the A- grade). However, I’m worried Derek Anderson’s breakout season may be more fluke and flash-in-the-pan than a sign that he’s going to be a perennial Pro Bowler. Jamal Lewis had a great 2007, but how many more miles does he have on those legs? Braylon Edwards appears to be the real deal, but is Donte Stallworth going to be enough to keep defenses from double-teaming him? Finally, can a defense that is almost devoid of playmakers step up and carry their weight. Facing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati twice, with games against the NFC East, Indianapolis and Jacksonville won’t be easy with a bad defensive unit. Their 3-4 is not suited to win in the AFC North and is not suited for them to win in November and December when teams like Pittsburgh start hitting the ground. With all the questions I have about their offense, and the questions everyone has about their defense, I can’t see Cleveland being better than 8-8.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Record: 8-8
Offense: A-
Defense: D
Coaching: C+
Tough Month: October (at Dallas, at New York Jets, Pittsburgh)
One of the most balanced offenses has become one of the most one-sided units in the NFL. Kenny Watson and Chris Perry are not adequate replacements for the long-done Rudi Johnson. It’s going to be entirely on Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandramalamadingdongzadeh to shoulder the load. Still, I have fewer questions about Cincinnati’s offense than I do about Cleveland’s. However, Cincinnati’s defense is much worse than their in-state rivals. In fact, it may be the worst defensive unit in the NFL. The secondary of Johnathan Joseph, Marvin White, Dexter Jackson and Leon Hall is very scary. Not scary for opposing offenses, but scary for coach Marvin Lewis. 8-8 will be enough to get Lewis the axe at the end of the season, and it will be very interesting to see where the Bengals go for their next head coach.
4. Baltimore Ravens
Projected Record: 4-12
Offense: F
Defense: B
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: December (Washington, Pittsburgh, at Dallas, Jacksonville)
Worse than the Edwards/Losman situation in Buffalo, worse than the mess in Miami, worse than the Bears predicament of Orton or Grossman and worse than the embarrassment in San Francisco known as Alex Smith (or J.T. O’Sullivan) is the abomination the Ravens are trotting out at quarterback this season. You know it’s bad when losing Kyle Boller to a shoulder injury is considered a setback to your QB situation. That leaves inexperienced and undersized Troy Smith or very inexperienced rookie Joe Flacco to take the snaps behind one of the three worst offensive lines in the league. Smith will probably be out of the NFL in three or four seasons and Flacco is nothing more than a career backup. It is extremely hard to make the jump at quarterback from Division 1-AA to NFL starter. Very few do it. For every Steve McNair and Rich Gannon, there are 20 other quarterbacks who never came close. Throw in the fact that the only two playmakers for the Ravens (Willis McGahee and Todd Heap) are injury risks, it’s very likely that Baltimore could set a 16-game record for fewest points scored in a season.
The defense is still good, but it is no longer dominating. They still have the ability to keep the offense in the game but don’t have the ability to win it. Not anymore. The Ravens did manage to get rid of the Big Ego, but they brought in a virtual nobody in John Harbaugh (he’s not even the best Harbaugh they could have hired). I only see two positives coming out of this season for the Ravens. The first is Ray Rice, who I think will be very good NFL starter at running back when McGahee gets hurt again. The second, if you listen to the obnoxious Ravens fans, is that they finally get a chance to play the Washington Redskins at home. If (and when) they lose that game, their season will be a complete waste.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts
Projected Record: 12-4
Offense: A
Defense: B
Coaching: A
Tough Month: November (New England, at Pittsburgh, Houston, at Cleveland, at San Diego)
The seemingly ageless Colts just keep ticking away. Marvin Harrison has two injuries, shoots a guy in the offseason, turns 36 and will be ready to go for the opener. The offensive line with Tony Ugoh, Ryan Lilja, Jeff Saturday (who will miss some time with a leg injury) and Ryan Diam just keep chugging along. The biggest question surrounding Indy is the status of Peyton Manning’s knee. Somehow, I don’t think it will affect his mobility any. Don’t look for Manning to be running QB draws any time soon…but then again, he never did to begin with. I’m sure by October he’ll be fine.
The Colts schedule breaks favorably. Two games against Jacksonville, a date with New England and road contests against Pittsburgh and San Diego will be the only real challenges they face. The Jaguars continue to creep up with Indy, and considering that the Colts are older at most positions, it’s only a matter of time before Jacksonville or Tennessee pass them in the South. The decade long stretch of dominance is coming to an end soon. However, as you’ll see later in the week, I think the Colts have one more Super Bowl run in them. This will probably be their last shot.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Record: 11-5
Offense: B
Defense: A-
Coaching: B-
Tough Month: September (at Tennessee, Buffalo, at Indianapolis, Houston)
I continue to like the slow and steady rebuilding process in Jacksonville. Most of the pieces are there for the Jags. One of the few questions left is at quarterback. Even though I long advocated David Garrard for starting quarterback over Byron Leftwich (a decision that was finally made last season), Garrard is still not an elite NFL quarterback. I just don’t see Garrard leading Jacksonville to a Super Bowl, and he’s not ready to lead them to a division title.
The rest of this team is stacked. The Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew combination continues to scare the living daylights out of opposing coordinators. The defense is loaded from front to back. There are no real weaknesses. John Henderson is just an absolute beast on the inside of that line. Jack Del Rio is nothing special as a coach, but he seems to press enough right buttons to get enough from his offensive players. A favorable schedule and another year of experience points to Jacksonville being a very dangerous team for the third straight season. They’re just not ready to jump the Colts. Not yet.
3. Tennessee Titans
Projected Record: 9-7
Offense: C+
Defense: B
Coaching: A-
Tough Month: December (Cleveland, at Houston, Pittsburgh, at Indianapolis)
Along with Cleveland, Tennessee is a team that a lot of people are expecting to make the jump. Unlike Cleveland, which is extremely unbalanced, Tennessee combines a solid defense with an above average offense. So at least they have some semblance of that all important balance. The problem is there are too many question marks on both sides of the ball.
On offense, my main question continues to revolve around Vince Young. As I said two years ago, I believe Jay Cutler will be the best quarterback from that 2006 draft. Young has not proven anything to me other than he’s a .500 NFL quarterback. The arm strength is there. The scrambling ability is definitely there. I’m not so sure the decision making and leadership has caught up to him. It doesn’t help that he has very few options around him. The addition of Alge Crumpler will help Young a little bit, but Lendale White and Chris Johnson as feature backs and Justin McCareins as the #1 receiving target doesn’t sound too promising.
The defensive front seven is very good. Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch are a terror on the line. Bringing back Jevon Kearse was a brilliant move assuming he’s able to stay healthy. Keith Bulluck is a great veteran presence among the linebackers. The question on the defense is the secondary. Tennessee may matchup well with run-heavy Jacksonville, but they still don’t have the horses in the defensive backfield to stop the Colts. Jeff Fisher may be able to coax a winning record out of these guys, but they won’t make the playoffs.
4. Houston Texans
Projected Record: 6-10
Offense: C+
Defense: C+
Coaching: D+
Tough Month September (at Pittsburgh, Baltimore, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville)
The Texans are no longer the bumbling, incompetent, Mario Williams-drafting franchise that Charley Casserly originally built them in to. There are exciting playmakers on both sides of the ball. There are plenty of reasons to watch. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson could be one of the better quarterback-receiver tandems in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans is an outstanding ball-hawking linebacker. The defense as a whole plays an exciting brand of pressure football. There are just too many holes on the roster. The offensive line, while improving, is still weak. They possess very little (or no) depth. And they play in the 2nd toughest division in the NFL. Plus that September schedule with three tough road games does them no favors. It all adds up to a team that will be more competitive than in the past, but still not a team that’s close to .500.
AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers
Projected Record: 11-5
Offense: A-
Defense: A-
Coaching: D+
Tough Month: October (at Miami, New England, at Buffalo, at New Orleans)
The same two problems remain for the Chargers: Norv Turner and Philip Rivers. Turner is an awful coach. That has been well established. San Diego’s win over Indianapolis in the divisional round last season is about all Turner can hang his hat on in a decade’s worth of coaching. Rivers is still the same side-arm thrower he was when he entered the league. It’s been one step forward, one step back for Rivers since day 1. Again, as I often like to point out, think where this team would be with Drew Brees behind center instead of Rivers.
On top of those two problems, there are a couple of new ones in San Diego. Is LaDainian Tomlinson completely healed from that strange set of injuries he suffered in January? Can Tomlinson carry the workload without Michael Turner to take some of the burden off of him? Is it wise to enter the season with Chris Chambers as the number one receiver? And what is wrong with Shawne Merriman? I don’t mean physically. I mean mentally. If he wants a new contract, playing hurt isn’t going to help. He’ll either miraculously make it through the season healthy, in which case he’ll get a decent size contract, but not a what he should earn because the team will not want to pay top dollar to someone with “knee issues”. Or he’ll get hurt and get nothing. It’s really a no-win situation.
Anyway, the Chargers are still the class of the AFC West. The Chiefs and Raiders are in different stages of rebuilding. The Broncos will be better than people think, but they aren’t in the same class as San Diego. All this equals a team that Norv and Rivers can’t screw up…until the playoffs.
2. Denver Broncos
Projected Record: 9-7
Offense: B-
Defense: B-
Coaching: B+
Tough Month: September (at Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, at Kansas City)
This is a team that’s solid all-around, but isn’t spectacular in any way. I expect Jay Cutler to have a breakouts season. Cutler is the x-factor for the Broncos in 2008. If he plays like he’s capable of, then this team may have a chance to challenge San Diego. If he plays like he has the past two seasons, this is going to be a team that would be lucky to hang around .500. If he isn’t healthy, then Patrick Ramsey will play and I take back the 9-7 prediction and it turns into 4-12. But I do expect Cutler to start maturing this season and I expect that he’ll be able to help the Broncos sneak into the playoffs.
Mike Shanahan returns for what seems like his 32nd season in Denver. He has another great offensive line, two running backs that will succeed in the zone-blocking system, and a defense which is back-loaded with talent but questionable upfront. Throw in a strong homefield advantage and four games against the two bad teams in the division, along with games against the Jets, Dolphins, Falcons and Bills, and it will be nearly impossible for Denver not to come up with 9 wins. Unless Ramsey plays.
3. Oakland Raiders
Projected Record: 6-10
Offense: C
Defense: C+
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: December (at San Diego, New England, Houston, at Tampa Bay)
It’s been five long years, but I think it’s time to welcome the Raiders back to respectability. That’s saying a lot for the one of the worst franchises of the decade (despite a Super Bowl appearance). Now, before we get ahead of ourselves and make this team an official darkhorse, I have to remind all of you that the Raiders offensive line is still terrible. Their defensive line isn’t much better off. Teams that are bad on the lines on both sides of the ball rarely sniff .500. However, there are enough weapons offensively (JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, Javon Walker) to make this a very interesting team. And they should be able to put a decent amount of points on the board.
Defensively, the line (aside from Derrick Burgess) is a big issue. Against teams like San Diego and Denver, the Raiders are going to get gashed. But the linebacking corps have speed and the secondary is one of the best in the league. So they should be able to keep opponents from running away from them.
It appears as if it will be another losing season for the Silver and Black. But it will be very interesting to see what Oakland does with another Top 10 pick (hopefully get more line help) and a season of experience for all their young talent. Check back in 2009, they’ll be a darkhorse then.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Record: 4-12
Offense: D+
Defense: C+
Coaching: B-
Tough Month: November (Tampa Bay, at San Diego, New Orleans, Buffalo, at Oakland)
Quick…name me the Chiefs starting quarterback. How about any of their starting offensive linemen? Or any of their secondary players? If you got Brodie Croyle as the QB, I wouldn’t be that surprised. But if you were able to name any of the other nine players in question, then I would be. I was only able to name Brandon Flowers and Patrick Surtain of the defense, and I’m obsessed with football. I honestly couldn’t name one offensive lineman, I had to look them up.
Larry Johnson is still around, but he has no one in front of him to block. Defenses will put 8 or even 9 men in the box to stop him since Croyle poses no threat. Even if he did, all he has to throw to is the aging Tony Gonzalez and a bunch of unproven, generic wide receivers (when was the last time KC had a big-time wideout…does Eddie Kennison count?). They drafted a bunch of good looking defensive players, but you can’t count on rookies to help make the playoffs, or keep a bad team from being an embarrassing one. And that’s what the Chiefs are going to be this season.
Wild Card
(3) San Diego beats (6) Denver
(5) Jacksonville beats (4) Pittsburgh
Divisional Round
(1) Indianapolis beats (5) Jacksonville
(2) New England beats (3) San Diego
AFC Championship Game
Indianapolis beats New England
Again, NFC preview and week 1 picks later in the week. Redskins preview coming in the next couple of days.
posted by Mark @ 11:51 PM
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