Sunday, March 28, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: South/Midwest Regional Finals

#3 Baylor Bears (28-7, 11-5 Big XII) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (32-5, 13-3 ACC)
Reliant Stadium – Houston, TX
South Regional Final


Well, it looks like the Dookies will finally be tested before their golden road paved by the tournament committee and CBS turns towards Indianapolis. Unfortunately, the testing will come from Baylor, a team that is immature and streaky…exactly the kind of team that Ratface and company tend to do well against. Baylor certainly possesses the horses to matchup with the Dookies, but I don't know if they possess the mindset.

Ratface somehow managed to drag this Dook team to the Elite Eight for the first time in a loooooooong time (especially considering the talent that he’s wasted the last few seasons). He also managed to be a team that was a fifth seed or higher for the first time in a looooooooong time. So two monkeys came off the back at once for the Devils. However, you need to look at that game honestly. Purdue had no business being a four seed in this tournament, and even if they did, the Boilermakers didn’t have the services of their top player. Despite that, Purdue hung with the Blow Devils for 35 minutes. At one point, they held the Dookies without a basket for an eight-minute stretch. To say that Dook is breezing through their soft early tournament slate would be false. They could have easily lost to Purdue; they could have easily lost to California. The tired legs which usually befall the Devils in early February have arrived. It may be a month late, but they are here nonetheless. Case in point: since their win against Maryland, The Screamer has shot a meager 32% over the last 13 games. The rest of the team’s shooting percentages haven’t fared much better. So in other words, the Dookies are there for the taking. All an opponent needs to do is score 65-70 points, and they should be able to win the game.

Meanwhile, the Bears finally showed why they were worthy of a #3 seed in their blowout win over Saint Mary’s. LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter were ally-ooping. Ekpe Udoh was grabbing boards. The Bears used their eight-man rotation to wear out the Gaels. The bench chipped in 21 points and seven rebounds. Defensively, the Bears ran three different players at Omar Samhan and frustrated him all night long. Samhan didn’t appear comfortable inside until the game was well out of hand. While none of the three possessed Samhan’s offensive skills, they were simply more athletic than he was, and got him off his game in the early going. Before Scott Drew knew it, his team was up 29 at halftime.

The Bears have to come in to this game knowing that they will get zero calls. Without Kentucky, the CBS/NCAA conglomerate needs a marquis team in the Final Four. You think Butler is going to draw rating? The network is so sure it has the Dookies advancing, that CBS and the NCAA are probably already planning a half-hour special on former Dook-punk Christian Laettner…assuming that Laettner can put down the weed and make it to Indianapolis or a television studio. And since this is a young Bears team that doesn’t have a lot of experience playing 5-on-8 (Big XII basketball officials tend to be some of the better refs in the game…college football is a different story, but I digress), they can’t let early calls rattle them. Talent-wise, Baylor is the better team. They’ll also have the home-court advantage since they are playing about three hours from Waco. Dook’s front line has the same skill set of Omar Samhan. That means they can finish around the basket as long as they are playing someone smaller than and just as awkward as they are. Against a quick and physical front line, like that of Baylor, Dook’s frontcourt has no advantage. So if the frontcourt battle is a draw, and the Screamer can’t find his jump shot by about 5:30, Baylor should win this game. I guess I just talked myself into it.
Pick: Baylor 67, Duke 62


#6 Tennessee Volunteers (28-8, 11-5 SEC) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (27-8, 14-4 Big Ten)
Edward Jones Dome – St. Louis, MO
Midwest Regional Finals


The Volunteers are really starting to annoy me. Of the eight teams that made it this far, they are probably the least deserving. Bruce Pearl’s act has gotten real old, real fast. And his son appears to be molded in the exact same clay. The annoying fauxhawk has to go. I kind of wish someone would deck young Steven Pearl. The kid doesn’t average two points a game, he’s only on the team because daddy is the coach and he only plays because half the team ended up in jail. Yet he runs up and down the court making a complete fool of himself, preening to the crowd whenever he gets a chance. It’s one thing when a guy like Greivis Vasquez does it, since he has the stats to back up his talk. But when a spoiled daddy’s-boy acts like that, it becomes very irritating.

Tom Izzo continues to dare you to pick against him. Is there any remaining doubt that Izzo is currently the best coach in the entire nation? I’d like someone to prove to me otherwise. Last season, he took the Spartans as a two seed, in what was supposed to be a top heavy tournament, and beat 3-seeded Kansas, top overall seed Louisville and another one seed UConn (and remember…MSU blew out Louisville and UConn, those games were never close). That was a very young and untested Spartans team. This season as a five seed, he’s had to deal with several injuries to his best two guards. While the bracket in front of Izzo collapsed a little bit, I don’t think many people would have had Izzo getting to the doorstep of another Final Four without Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen for the majority of his first three games.

The Izzo factor is good enough for me, considering that his opposition is Pearl. I’ve underestimated Tennessee, just like I underestimated Butler. I saw that Kansas State-Butler game as basically a tossup. I assumed that KSU’s athleticism would take over. But I knew if push came to shove, then Frank Martin would be too busy yelling as his players to focus on the game (and I was right, the Wildcats absolutely crapped the bed in the final two minutes of that game). However, I don’t see this game as a tossup, not with the coaching matchup so heavily favoring Michigan State. This may be the game where the Spartans undermanned backcourt finally catches up to them. This might be the game where they get tired because their depth has been exhausted. This could be the game when their jump shots finally stop falling. But I wouldn’t count on it.
Pick: Michigan State 71, Tennessee 63

Saturday, March 27, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: East/West Regional Finals

#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (30-6, 13-5 Big East) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (35-2, 14-2 SEC)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
East Regional Finals


So it looks as if the Wildcats are the only powerhouse team left standing. CBS got their dream regional final, and are now just inches away from their dream Final Four matchup with Kentucky and the Dookies. So if you are West Virginia, don’t expect ANY calls in this game. You’re not going to get them. Especially not with the reputation Bob Huggins has with the referees.

I was actually impressed with Kentucky’s performance against Cornell. Even though the Cats were stronger, faster and taller than just about any player the Big Red threw on the court, they still had to think their way through that game. Superior athleticism alone wasn’t the reason Kentucky won. They had their struggles, like when they only scored nine points in the first 12 minutes of the 2nd half, but they played a good defensive game and were workman-like on offense in the back stretch. And thanks to the bozos at CBS, most of us in the Washington area were subjected to the majority of that crime against basketball that Cornell was playing instead of being allowed to watch the much more exciting Kansas State-Xavier game.

Ok, to this game. Those at home want to find some sort of fault in Kentucky. Well, the schedule is one. When the Wildcats scheduled North Carolina, UConn, Louisville and Indiana, they thought that those four traditional powerhouses would be respectable. Only Louisville had a decent season…and when the two teams played in early January, the Cardinals were playing terrible basketball. So the four premier games outside the conference that Kentucky set up didn’t live up to expectations. The Cats also played Stanford (and needed overtime to beat them) and Sam Houston State, along with the usual assortment of scrubs and guaranteed wins. Then Kentucky descended into their SEC schedule, and weren’t really challenged for most of that slate. On the other hand, West Virginia scheduled just as aggressively as Kentucky did, but their gambles actually paid off. The Mountaineers had games against Texas A&M, Purdue and Ohio State. While Purdue embarrassed the Queers, WVU won the other two games. Then West Virginia had to trek through their Big East schedule. For the second straight year, we’ve seen that the Big East is vastly overrated. But no matter what you think about the Big East, it was still leaps and bounds better than the SEC. So the one big advantage WVU has is the fact they’ve been tested a few more times than Kentucky. The other main advantage is experience. West Virginia is led by two seniors, a handful of juniors and sophomore Devin Ebanks. The Wildcats obviously rely on a core group of freshman and junior Patrick Patterson.

That’s pretty much where the advantages for WVU stop. Between Ebanks and Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia may have one bona fide NBA prospect on its roster. Kentucky not only has four guys who are shoo-ins for the NBA, all four players may be lottery picks. The talent is slanted heavily in Kentucky’s favor. West Virginia is a great rebounding team, but Kentucky is better. West Virginia plays great team defense, but Kentucky can beat it. The Mountaineers haven’t seen a team with two stud post players, two guys who are lights out beyond the arc in Eric Bledsoe and Darius Miller, and they’ve certainly never seen a player as quick as John Wall in the Big East. Combine that with the fact that John Calipari-teams tend to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament, while Huggins has a long history of underachieving (while at Cincinnati and last year's one and done as a six seed), and the talent discrepancy on the floor and on the sideline is bordering on unfair.

In a just world, there would be a way where both of these scumbag coaches found a way to lose this game. Unfortunately, unless the Carrier Dome roof collapse, that doesn’t look very likely. On a personal level, I guess I loathe Huggins a little more than I do Calipari. Kentucky also stands a better chance of beating Duke if they advance. So for the sake of the rest of college basketball, the Wildcats need to win this game. And besides, chances are Kentucky will have to forfeit this game sometime in the next couple of years.
Pick: Kentucky 73, West Virginia 66


#5 Butler Bulldogs (31-4, 18-0 Horizon) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (29-7, 11-5 Big XII)
Energy Solutions Arena – Salt Lake City, UT
West Regional Finals


Butler has a chance to do what only George Mason could accomplish in 2006. They have a chance to get to the Final Four before their other powerhouse mid-major brethren like Gonzaga, Xavier or pick-your-favorite Mountain West team. Like Mason in ‘06, I’ve overlooked the Bulldogs every step of the way (well, I guess I picked them over Murray State). I can promise you that I will continue to overlook them as the tournament moves on.

I do want to thank 15-year-old coach Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs for ridding the tournament of Syracuse and Jim Boeheim. Like Huggins and Calipari above, Boeheim is scum that doesn’t deserve another National Championship ring (he barely deserved his first), and the Bulldogs saved me from a potential Syracuse-Dook national final game. Ugh, what a nightmare that would have been. Similar to Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl or a Yankees-Phillies World Series (I’m told those two teams played last October, but I’m pretty sure I blocked it out). Furthermore, the annoying Syracuse contingent at work can stop making plans to travel to Indianapolis next weekend. On second thought, I hope they do go to Indy (since it’s far away from me), but they won’t get to see their Orange. Tough break.

This is one region where I was pretty much on the money (other than underrating Butler). I had Syracuse, Kansas State and Xavier all in the Sweet 16. I had Kansas State reaching the Final Four. If I thought the Wildcats could beat the Orange a week ago, then it’s going to be pretty tough to convince me that they won’t beat the Butler. Crazy Frank Martin can run players at you in waves. KSU is a legitimate 10-deep. Almost all their players are a couple of inches bigger than their position counterparts. They can all run up and down the floor. Denis Clemente, who was an afterthought at Miami, has transformed into a guy who can score 17 points a night in a variety of ways. Obviously Jacob Pullen is the engine that makes it all go. And Martin uses five different big men who can all board and love to operate within 10-feet of the hoop. The size and depth (something Syracuse did not have) of the Wildcats should allow them to slip past the Bulldogs.
Pick: Kansas State 70, Butler 65

Friday, March 26, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: Regional Semifinals, Day 2

SOUTH REGION

Reliant Stadium
Houston, TX

#4 Purdue Boilermakers (29-5, 14-4 Big Ten) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (31-5, 13-3 ACC)

Well, the bracket is all clear for the Devils. The little resistance that was here was eliminated with indifference (Villanova) and with a poorly-officiated game (Texas A&M). Baylor is a nice team, but they simply don’t have the postseason experience to get by the Dookies, and they may not even get by St. Mary’s. Purdue really shouldn’t have gotten this far, and they certainly don’t have anyone to matchup with White Stiff and the Dumblees. So that pretty much sums up a bracket that was Dook’s for the taking to begin with.

For all those who think that this was no conspiracy, just a terrible job by the selection committee, better wake up. A few posts ago, I posted this article. While most of it is conjecture, there is definitely some truth behind it. Dook’s two games so far have been played in primetime. The broadcast team sent to Jacksonville to cover those two games was CBS’ A-team of Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg (Personally, I think those two are terrible together…but CBS doesn’t think so. I would much rather listen to Gus, Lundquist, Brando or Harlan). Traditionally, CBS has sent Nantz to the first round site of the overall number one seed. They usually don’t send their top broadcasting unit to a site with the “third” #1 seed, Wisconsin-Wofford, Temple-Cornell and Louisville-California. Heck, CBS doesn’t even know that California has their own team. I'd be surprised if they could locate Berkeley or the state of California on a map. The Jacksonville sub-regional may have been the least entertaining of the eight. It would have made more sense for Nantz to go to Oklahoma City, where Kansas, Kansas State, Florida (two-time defending champs not too long ago) and Jimmer Fredette were waiting. It would have made more sense to send Nantz and Kellogg to Buffalo, where Syracuse, Big East Champ West Virginia, Clemson, Missouri, Gonzaga and Florida State were all playing. But CBS decides to send Nantz to Jacksonville. Now CBS is sending them to Houston, when either Salt Lake City or Syracuse are better regionals. So you tell me…did the committee just make a serious blunder putting the brackets together, or did CBS and the NCAA make a conscious effort to protect their one “commodity” and make more money in their next contract at the expense of a fair tournament?
Pick: Duke 65, Purdue 54

#10 Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#3 Baylor Bears (27-7, 11-5 Big XII)

Everyone is stunned by the Gaels entry into the Sweet 16. Don’t be fooled, this is a very good team. This team reminds me of the Gonzaga squads of the mid-to-late 90’s that were always overlooked and always pulled at least one upset. The Gaels win over Richmond really doesn’t qualify as an upset; even I picked it. Seeing how Villanova played in the last three weeks of the season, I’m not so sure it’s a huge upset that Saint Mary’s beat them either. The Gaels have certainly earned their way to this position. By the way, does anyone else think Omar Samhan looks exactly like Jordan Williams, or is it just me?

This is exactly the kind of team that can give Baylor fits. The Gaels are led primarily by upper classmen. They’ve played five teams outside their conference that made the tournament, and won four of those games. They also had to play Gonzaga three times this year, and won in the WCC Tournament final when it really counted. This is a veteran team that’s been tested and won’t be intimidated playing against a team from the Big XII. On top of that, Baylor has fooled around with Sam Houston State and Old Dominion, two teams that aren’t nearly as good as Saint Mary’s. The Bears should have enough talent to escape, but expect this game to be very close since Ekpe Udoh is the only answer for Samhan inside, and he’s not a physical big man.
Pick: Baylor 68, Saint Mary’s 65

WEST REGION

Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, MO
#6 Tennessee Volunteers (27-8, 11-5 SEC) vs.
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (29-7, 14-4 Big Ten)

I think this will be the dud game of the night on Friday. Tennessee has played San Diego State and Ohio so far, while the Buckeyes were at least tested in the 2nd round against a taller Georgia Tech team. Tennessee looks a lot like OSU on paper, except with less talent. All the experts like to focus on the Buckeyes' Evan Turner, and that’s fine. Turner is an outstanding player. But don’t forget guys like Will Buford and David Lighty. Lighty played tremendously when Turner was hurt earlier in the season, and the big three for OSU have all been clicking since the calendar flipped to March.

Again, on paper, this appears to be a mismatch. Tennessee doesn’t shoot, score or rebound as well as Ohio State. They don’t play defense as well as Ohio State. They haven’t gone through a conference ringer like Ohio State. 11-5 in the SEC wouldn’t really intimidate me. The Vols barely beat SDSU, then had the bracket collapse so they could advance to the Sweet 16. All signs point to a relatively big OSU win.
Pick: Ohio State 74, Tennessee 60

#9 Northern Iowa Panthers (30-4, 15-3 MVC) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (26-8, 14-4 Big Ten)

I’m still sort of stunned by Maryland’s loss to Michigan State. Probably hasn’t set in yet. I’ll say this about the game: the better team won. At least the better team on that Sunday. Michigan State outplayed Maryland for 35 minutes. It took two injuries to key Spartan guards to allow the Terps to comeback. Greivis Vasquez played an amazing game, and almost won the game single-handedly. And I’d certainly rather Maryland go out like that, to a classy team with classy coach, then to get down double-digits and roll over, like Georgetown or Villanova. Still, the buzzer-beater ending was a little too much to take.

I don’t know what Tom Izzo is going to do without Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen (who still may or may not play). If the end of the Maryland game was any indication, the Spartans may have a hard time handling the ball and may be at a severe disadvantage in the backcourt. If you didn’t notice, Ali Farokhmanesh has been killing it in the tournament…just ask a Kansas fan if you can find one. Along with fellow guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe and potential future NBA-center Jordan Egleseder, the Spartans may actually face mismatches all over the court. But, if I’ve learned one thing over the years, and anything from last Sunday, it’s that you never count Tom Izzo teams out in the NCAA Tournament. Especially not one that has plenty of talent even without Lucas.
Pick: Michigan State 71, Northern Iowa 64

Thursday, March 25, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: Regional Semifinals, Day 1

EAST REGION

Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY

#12 Cornell Big Red (29-4, 13-1 Ivy) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (34-2, 14-2 SEC)

The fact that Kentucky gets Cornell makes this game easy to analyze. No one doubts John Calipari’s ability to coach, recruit or break the NCAA rules. Emphasis on the last of the three. But the man can still coach. If I’m Big John, I look at my team and I look at Cornell. I run up and down the court on every possession. If Kentucky is suckered into a half-court game against this team, then something is seriously wrong. Calipari should use his four potential lottery picks to run Cornell off the court. And for those who think Cornell may have a home-court advantage since they are less than an hour from Syracuse, I would caution against that assumption. Kentucky travels for basketball, and travels well. Probably better than any other school in the country.
Pick: Kentucky 84, Cornell 66

#11 Washington Huskies (26-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs.
#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (29-6, 13-5 Big East)

Everyone seems shocked about Washington, but there’s no reason to be. The Pac-10 played much better basketball in February and March than anyone gave them credit for. Since all the experts had written off the conference in January, no one bothered to pay attention. The Huskies have two dynamic scorers in Quincy Poindexter and Isaiah Thomas. Combine them with several very good role players, a good coach in Lorenzo Romar and you have yourself a pretty good basketball team that underachieved for the first four months of the season. UW has been clicking for the past few weeks, and they’ve already beaten a Big East team in this tournament.

As for West Virginia, the Darryl Bryant may be addition by subtraction. Bryant’s been starting recently for WVU, but he really doesn’t fit in to the overall scheme of scumbag Bob Huggins (Huggins, Ratface, Calipari, Bruce Pearl…even Jim Boeheim has been known to pay a player or two. It’s scumbag central in the Sweet 16. All we’re missing is Jim Calhoun. Thank goodness coaches like Tom Izzo and Romar are still around). Without Bryant, it will be easier for Huggins to figure out his rotation. It just seemed like too many guys weren’t getting enough playing time for Queers with Bryant in the lineup. Huggins may run into a problem if Joe Mazzula can't stay out of foul trouble and cause WVU to lose depth in the backcourt. Otherwise, I don't think the injury will be much of an issue.

Anyway, this one will probably go WVU’s way. They have the defensive mindset to shut down or limit Poindexter and Thomas. Without those two firing, the rest of the team kind of withers. And you can be sure the NCAA is going to keep trying to set up the Calipari-Huggins Elite 8 before a Calipari-Ratface Final Four.
Pick: West Virginia 67, Washington 59

WEST REGION


Energy Solutions Arena
Salt Lake City, UT

#5 Butler Bulldogs (30-4, 18-0 Horizon) vs.
#1 Syracuse Orange (30-4, 15-3 Big East)
After losses to Louisville and Georgetown emptied the Syracuse bandwagon a little bit, two commanding wins in the NCAA Tournament have filled it back up. Oh my God, the 2-3 zone is back! Boeheim is a genius! He has this team believing in defense! Yuck. My question is when is Syracuse going to face an actual team? For all the complaining done about Duke’s easy road (and yes, that road is still ridiculously easy), Syracuse could potentially play Vermont, Gonzaga, Butler and Xavier (obviously KSU will have something to say about that) to reach the Final Four. Even though three of the best mid-major programs are on that list, they’re still mid-majors. I don’t think I ever seen an easier road to the Final Four than that potential path. If the Muskies pull an upset, that’d be an absolute joke.

Meanwhile, Boeheim pulled a fast one on the tournament committee. After Arinze Onuaku was injured against Georgetown in round three of the eight round Big East Tournament, Boeheim and the Orange immediately went into spin mode. Knowing that Cuse wouldn’t play again until the tournament, Boeheim said that Onuaku has a knee strain. Anyone watching the game knew that was total B.S. Viewers could hear an audible pop when Onuaku came down funny. His own teammate was even overheard saying to the doctors that he heard a pop. But no one could argue with the report since the Orange wouldn’t play again for another week. Boeheim figured if the committee knew how serious Onuaku’s knee injury was, the Orange would be stripped of a potential #1 seed and be destined for a Purdue-like fate (especially since the team only has six other capable players). So for the days leading up to the selection show, the reports from Syracuse were that Onuaku would be fine and would likely play in the first round game. But all of a sudden, less than 24 hours after the selection show and after the #1 seed was secure, Onuaku was pretty much ruled out for the first weekend’s games. Very dirty move by Boeheim. As you can see, lying about the severity of a player’s injury has affected the draw positively for Syracuse. Congrats Orange fans, your coach is officially a douche bag.

Whether Onuaku plays or not, Syracuse should have no problem getting by Butler. The Bulldogs looked simply average against UTEP and Murray State. Now they have to face a team with more talent. I don’t expect this to be close after halftime.
Pick: Syracuse 74, Butler 62

#6 Xavier Musketeers (26-8, 14-2 A-10) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (28-7, 11-5 Big XII)
I know I had KSU in my Final Four, but until last weekend, I wasn’t really sold on the Wildcats. Their efforts against North Texas and BYU really impressed me. Unlike most high seeds, they didn’t fool around at all with their first round opponent. Then after a back-and-forth first ten minutes against BYU, the Wildcats put them away rather easily. I’m still not sure this team can rebound against an equally athletic team, and I’m not sure what will happen to this team if they get into a 40-minute game, but I’m feeling a whole lot better about that Final Four pick right now.

Xavier continues to roll along. I’m convinced you could pluck someone off the street and they could somehow get Xavier to the Sweet 16. This team seemingly changes coaches every season and doesn’t miss a beat. Jordan Crawford, who would be playing for Indiana right now if it wasn’t for Kelvin Sampson, may be the best player left in this tournament not named John Wall. Seriously, if you didn’t get a chance to see Xavier last week, do yourself a favor and check out this game. He only has 55 points in two games so far. Crawford is far better than anyone on Kansas State’s roster. I doubt that anyone on the Wildcats has the discipline to stay with him for 40 minutes. I also doubt that Crawford’s teammates will be able to help him any in critical situations. I’ll take the more complete team here.
Pick: Kansas State 76, Xavier 71

Sunday, March 21, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 2



#5 Michigan State Spartans (25-8, 14-4 Big Ten) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (24-8, 13-3 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 2nd Round, Midwest Region
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA

Maryland didn’t play a great game, but they played an OK one. It seemed like they either slept in for the first ten minutes or were really nervous. Either way, the last 30 minutes of the game were pretty much all Maryland. Houston had one plan, drive to the hoop and hope for a foul. And even though the refs gave them plenty of calls, if the refs didn’t give them a foul, their offense was pretty much non-existent. Aubrey Coleman was as good as advertised, but did most of his damage in the first half. After Gary Williams got a good look at him, the Terps defense adjusted. Instead of trying to front him with a guard and have a forward close by, Maryland simply denied Coleman the ball in the 2nd half. At one point, Coleman went about ten minutes without scoring.

Meanwhile, the Terps asserted themselves inside. They dominated the glass, thanks in large part to Jordan Williams. I said on this very page that Maryland was going to need a special effort from him in order to win. They certainly got one. With two minutes to go in the first half, Williams already had a double-double. For the first time in years, Maryland has an inside threat that the opponent has little answer for. His 21 points and rebounding ability just begin to describe the way that Williams changed the game the other night.

Other than that, no Terrapin gave a consistent effort, but a variety of players chipped in. Greivis Vasquez had a rather quiet 16-point performance. There were a couple of big drives and layups to stop potential Houston runs. He also added seven boards and six assists. Despite 19 points, Landon Milbourne made a variety of defensive errors and disappeared from the game for long stretches. But like Williams, he was instrumental to Maryland’s 47-26 advantage on the boards. Eric Hayes added 11 and six, hitting a couple of key threes. Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker played well (I was especially happy with Tucker’s effort defensively). So all and all it was a good game. Maryland never really put the Cougars away, but just kept them at arm’s length until time ran out.

The Terrapins move on to play Michigan State, a team that Terps fans have seen a lot of the past couple of seasons. Twice in the last three years, Maryland has run into the Spartans in a preseason tournament. Three years ago it was in the Coaches vs. Cancer event at MSG. Two years ago it was down at in Orlando in whatever tournament Disney hosts. Both times Maryland was victorious. However, in the last meeting between these two in the tournament in 2003, the Spartans were good enough to eek out a one-point victory in the Sweet 16. That was the last time that Maryland has made the regional semifinals, and it’s a little ironic that it’s Michigan State that stands in their way once again.

As we all know by now, the Spartans are led by Tom Izzo. For my money, there are only two coaches that are better than Gary in gameday preparation and in-game adjustments: Izzo and Rick Pitino. And I’m starting to have serious doubts about Pitino (down 24-4 to California…yikes). Simply put, Izzo could have a bunch of high-schoolers, and I would still be worried about his team in the tournament.

Obviously Izzo doesn’t have a high-school team. He has plenty of talent, even though Michigan State comes in to the NCAA Tournament struggling and comes in to this game a little banged up. Delvon Roe plays for the Spartans on a bad knee that will probably need surgery at the end of the season. Chris Allen, who has been in Izzo’s doghouse and was suspended for the Big Ten Tournament, appeared to seriously injure himself in the first round game against New Mexico State. Kalin Lucas also went down for a little while with injury against the Aggies, but he came back and it didn’t appear to affect him during at 25-point performance.

The Spartans limped to the finish line in conference. Like I mentioned on Friday, Sparty won three of their last five regular season games, but those wins came against the worst the Big Ten has to offer (and two of the games very close). They then lost their first Big Ten Tourney game against Minnesota with Allen watching from the bench. In their first round tournament game against NMSU, Michigan State raced out to a 13-point halftime lead. Then they kind of fell apart in the 2nd half and needed a questionable lane violation call to finally put away the pesky Aggies. Michigan State won most of the statistical battles, but played poorly at crucial times in the game. MSU has been inconsistent for the last month or two, and the good and bad Spartans both showed up against New Mexico State.

However, it’s crucial to remember that this is the same team that was ranked #2 in the country at the beginning of the season and was in the National Championship game one year ago. Along with Lucas, Allen and Roe, MSU also has Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green, Durrell Summers and Korie Lucious. The Spartans are so talented that Lucious and Roe don’t even start. They’d probably be in the starting lineup for about 95% of Division 1 teams. Even though the Spartans don’t possess that huge 6’10” power forward that most Big Ten teams have, they have the tradition collection of 6’8” athletic forwards that Izzo loves (think the college version of Zach Randolph or Jason Richardson). This is the #1 team in the entire nation in rebounding margin as a result. This is a completely different team than Houston. Maryland went into their first game knowing they’d own the glass, but will go into this game knowing that they probably won’t.

The Spartans main weaknesses are from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. Allen and Lucas are their only real threats from deep, and the team as a whole shoots only 33.5%. At the free throw line, MSU is 68.2% as a team. Morgan, Green and Roe are all suspect at the stripe. The Spartans also tend to be careless with the ball (averaging around 14 turnovers a game). This again is a stark contrast to a Houston team that was one of the best in the nation at protecting the rock.

Maryland has to worry about Lucas first. He is the engine of this team. He leads MSU in points and assists. If Maryland can limit or frustrate him, the Spartans will fall apart. Without him, their big men don’t get the ball (except on second chances) and Michigan State becomes a team that relies on jump shots. With Lucas playing his best, MSU can do whatever they want offensively. And don’t expect the Terps to put up 89 points again. The Spartans play a typical brand of Big Ten defense, and usually allow less than 65 points a game.

Meanwhile, Maryland has shot poorly from three in their last few games. The Terps were only 4-17 against Houston, and most of the shots they missed were open. Chances are, given another chance at shots like that, Maryland will make many more threes. Vasquez has been rather quiet since the second Duke game, and I have a feeling he’s due for a 23-point or more effort. The question is who will help him.


Alright Greivis, here's your last chance to make a run deep into March.

There’s no way Jordan is going to have another 21 points, 17 board game. He won’t be the focal point of the offense, and if he is, Maryland is in trouble. The Terps are going to need Hayes, Mosley and the bench guards to step up and win this one. Even though MSU is scary talented, I’d still take Maryland’s backcourt over Izzo’s. The Williams-Milbourne-Gregory frontcourt needs to hold their own and not get dominated. It’s one thing to lose the rebounding battle, but Maryland can’t lose it by more than six or seven boards. The good news for Maryland is the health of Allen. Not only is he their best three-point shooter, but he is Michigan State’s best on the ball defender. Without him, Lucas will be forced to guard Vasquez. Lucas gives up five inches to Greivis (another reason he could have a breakout game). Plus, if Lucas exerts all his energy on the defensive end, then his offense will be hindered. Allen will probably play, but I doubt he’s able to register 20 minutes.

We all know by now that the so-called Bracket of Death has collapsed a bit. Whichever team wins this game is going to be rewarded with a contest in St. Louis against Northern Iowa instead of scary Kansas. Somehow, I expect Maryland to scrap across a win. There are too many health questions and chemistry questions surrounding the Spartans. Vasquez is going to do enough to get this team to the Sweet 16.

Maryland 68
Michigan State 64



As for the rest of the country, my bracket is entirely shot. Kansas sunk it, but it really doesn’t matter to me if it helps Maryland in the long run. Anyway, I’ve simply run out of time (mostly work related reasons), so I’m only going to be able to give scores for the rest of the 2nd round games. I’ll be back in full on Thursday, and I’ll hopefully get a chance to talk more about the Terps on Friday.

Wisconsin 57, Cornell 51
West Virginia 78, Missouri 67
Duke 71, California 58
Texas A&M 63, Purdue 52
Ohio State 73, Georgia Tech 65
Syracuse 80, Gonzaga 77
Xavier 63, Pittsburgh 58

Saturday, March 20, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 1

Went 22-10 in the first round, which is pretty good considering I had to go 13-3 yesterday to get there. Some very interesting 2nd round matchups today. I think just about all eight of these games could go either way.

EAST REGION

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA

#9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (20-10, 9-7 ACC) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (33-2, 14-2 SEC)

Kentucky was one of the few higher seeds that didn’t fool around at all in the first round. I thought ETSU could give them a little bit of trouble, since UK is a little young. John Wall and the Baby Cats showed a little bit of meddle and impressed me…even though you have to take their opponent into account.

The surprise here is the Demon Deacons. Dino Gaudio summoned all his coaching ability, and with help from Rick Barnes and some awful foul shooting from the Longhorns, escaped in to the 2nd round. Now with the pressure off of him and Wake a little bit, it will be interesting to see if they play loose. Obviously Kentucky doesn’t have that luxury, since they always have the crushing weight of Big Blue Nation on their shoulder. So that could be an advantage for the Deacs.

However, Wake played one of their better games of the past month to get past the Horns. Even with that performance, they needed overtime and some luck to win. Even though Al-Farouq Aminu may be one of the few forwards that can go toe-to-toe with Demarcus Cousins or Patrick Patterson, and Ish Smith is lightning quick (maybe even quicker than Wall), the talent level drops off from there. L.D. Williams and C.J. Harris will have to play better than normal for Wake to have a chance.
Pick: Kentucky 83, Wake Forest 68

HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA

#11 Washington Huskies (25-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs.
#3 New Mexico Lobos (30-4, 14-2 Mountain West)

The Huskies were successful in alleviating some of questions surrounding the Pacific-10 this season. Their win over one of the teams from “The Best Conference To Ever Exist Even Though Half Our Teams Lost In The First Round” saved a little face for maligned western basketball. On the other hand, New Mexico did little to convince people that the Mountain West should be taken seriously. San Diego State and UNLV were bounced in the first round. BYU needed two overtimes to get past Florida (a team that should not have been in the tournament to begin with). And the Lobos tried several times to give away their game with Montana.

So you have Washington, playing some of their best basketball of the season, facing New Mexico. The Lobos struggled during the MWC Tournament and then struggled in the first round. On top of that, Darington Hobson landed hard on his shooting hand Thursday night, and there’s no telling how well he’ll be able shoot (he struggled after the injury against the Grizzlies). Fortunately for the Lobos, Roman Martinez and Dairese Gary are capable of picking up the slack. If Phillip McDonald, a guy who turned down offers from Texas A&M and Texas Tech, ever gets going, then New Mexico could be really dangerous in this tournament. The UW-UNM matchup was one of the few that I correctly predicted, so I’m going to stick with my original prediction. The Lobos scrap a win together.
Pick: New Mexico 74, Washington 67

SOUTH REGION


New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA

#11 Old Dominion Monarchs (27-8, 15-3 CAA) vs.
#3 Baylor Bears (26-7, 11-5 Big XII)

Like many out there, I wanted to take Baylor to go to at least the Elite Eight. But I had seen enough of the Bears to know that they are simply too inconsistent to be trusted. That inconsistency reared its head again in a narrow win against Sam Houston State. For periods of time, the Bears looked like the team that’s been anointed one of the tournament’s darkhorses. For other long periods of time, they looked like the team that lost to Colorado and Alabama and lost most of their games against the upper-echelon Big XII schools. Remember, despite the three seed, that was Baylor’s first tournament win in about 60 years. So none of these players have any postseason experience.

The good news for Baylor is they get a team that can’t possibly outscore them in ODU. The Monarchs could barely outscore the Fighting Irish, a team that made a habit of scoring under 60 points during the end of the regular season. The Bears should have enough fire power to cross the 60-point threshold, and that should be enough for Baylor.
Pick: Baylor 65, Old Dominion 53

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI

#10 St. Mary’s Gaels (27-5, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#2 Villanova Wildcats (25-7, 13-5 Big East)

So Villanova…what the hell was that? I don’t like one of my Final Four teams to be on the ropes by 2:30 p.m. on the first Thursday of the tournament. I took Villanova because Baylor wasn’t consistent enough, but it appears that may have been a big mistake. Taking any of the Big East teams appears to be a big mistake at this point. Let’s call a spade a spade here, the Wildcats played worse than Robert Morris. The Colonials should have won. RMU just got tight in the last couple of minutes and had a couple of questionable calls go against them.

In a day filled with drama, the Gaels were business-like. There was no doubt they’d beat the Spiders by about the 10-minute mark of the first half. You have to give the edge to St Mary’s coming because of the way they played. However, Villanova has done this before. They played terribly last season in the first round against American before reeling off three more victories on route to the Final Four. Let’s hope their game against RMU was a blip on the radar and not an on-coming trend
Pick: Villanova 77, St. Mary’s 71

MIDWEST REGION


Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK

#9 Northern Iowa Panthers (29-4, 15-3 MVC) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-2, 15-1 Big XII)

Any chance that Kansas had of being knocked off in the 2nd round went out the window when UNLV lost to Northern Iowa. Lots of experts have pointed to the fact that UNI plays at a slower pace and could potentially slow the Jayhawks down. That’s not going to happen. You have to be able to outscore Kansas to beat them. You can’t slow them down. A handful of Big XII teams tried that and failed. UNLV could potentially score with Kansas, and Lon Kruger has knocked off several higher seeds before. I don’t see Northern Iowa hanging in this game longer than 20 minutes.
Pick: Kansas 80, Northern Iowa 63

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI

#14 Ohio Bobcats (22-14, 7-9 MAC) vs.
#6 Tennessee Volunteers (26-8, 11-5 SEC)

Well done John Thompson III. You have Greg Monroe, Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, and you can’t win one tournament game in two seasons? Really? As much heat as Gary Williams gets in this town, it would be nice to see the Washington Post give a little (and much deserved) heat to Little Racist III. They never will, because every columnist and writer is terrified of his father. For the life of me, I still don’t understand why he’s running the Princeton offense with All-American talent. The loss to Ohio wasn’t the fault of the players, it was the fault of Thompson and Thompson alone. Georgetown gave up 97 points to a team that was under .500 in their conference. With all due respect to Ohio, who almost everyone ignored, that’s awful. That’s inexcusable. But will Thompson get criticized? Not in this market.

Kudos to the Bobcats, but can they do it again? Tennessee is a team that occasionally plays defense optional basketball. So if the Cats can’t shoot like they did Thursday, they certainly have a good chance. Unfortunately for Ohio, teams tend to shoot worse on Saturday and Sunday than they do in the first round because of tired legs. Don’t expect upset number two.
Pick: Tennessee 76, Ohio 66

WEST REGION


HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA

#13 Murray State Racers (31-4, 17-1 OVC) vs.
#5 Butler Bulldogs (29-5, 18-0 Horizon)
The three buzzer-beaters (or near buzzer-beaters) all hosed me yesterday. Northern Iowa, Wake and of course Murray State all managed to win in the closing seconds, changing my first day record from a respectable 12-4 to a dreadful 9-7. Those are the breaks I guess.

I like the Racers style of play, but I have a tendency to avoid the big double-digit seeds going into the Sweet 16. I know that one or two usually sneak in, but I don’t think I can pick them. Murray State is the poor quality opponent that Butler played most of the season. It will be interesting to see what the Bulldogs can do against Syracuse (although I’m hoping Syracuse loses before they get that chance).
Pick: Butler 71, Murray State 67

Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK

***The Predictor Game Of The Day***
#7 BYU Cougars (30-5, 13-3 Mountain West) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (27-7, 11-5 Big XII)

This might very well be the game that decides the direction that my bracket is going. I need Kansas State to get to the Final Four, or at least get to within one step of the Final Four, and I think this is their last real hurdle. I don’t think the Pitt-Xavier winner is going to matchup favorably against KSU, but the Cougars definitely do.

We found out Thursday that BYU is not a one man show. The Gators pushed them around and went bucket for bucket with the favorites. If BYU was just Jimmer Fredette, they wouldn’t be playing today. Sure his 37 points were impressive, but they needed more than that to hang with Florida. Strong performances from Jackson Emery and Michael Loyd Jr (who was only averaging 4.5 ppg before scoring 26) proved the Cougars aren’t a one-trick pony.

For Kansas State, they are going to need more of the balanced scoring they got in their first round game against North Texas. Fredette is going to have the advantage, no matter who he matches up with. But the Wildcats should have the advantage everywhere else. Denis Clemente, Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly and Dominique Sutton each scored in double figures (and other than Clemente, none of them played 30 minutes). Another performance like that should put KSU in the Sweet 16.
Pick: Kansas State 75, BYU 69

Friday, March 19, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2



#13 Houston Cougars (19-15, 7-9 CUSA) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (23-8, 13-3 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 1st Round, Midwest Region
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA

Even though I briefly mentioned it during my ACC Semifinals preview, I wasn’t all that upset with Maryland’s loss in the ACC Tournament. I was over it in about ten minutes. It simply wasn’t that important for the Terps and it mattered for Georgia Tech. Maryland shot horribly the whole game. Jordan Williams was saddled with fouls. Sean Mosley scored exactly zero points. Other than forcing a bunch of turnovers, Maryland was outplayed in just about every other statistical category. The positives: no injuries and a good game from Landon Milbourne. Boy, did he need to have one. It gave them a week to rest up for the real tournament. So it was hard to be too upset about it.

It’s a good thing Maryland got a week off before the start of this thing. Before the selection show, I think most fans would have been happy with a five seed, but expecting somewhere around a six. The committee showed Maryland “respect” by giving them a four. But that’s respect with an asterisk. Despite getting one of 16 protected seeds, Maryland was sent as far away from home as possible. Why Wisconsin couldn’t be sent to Spokane and Maryland sent to Jacksonville is beyond me. That arrangement would have made sense for both teams. More importantly, the Terps were given a four seed in what is now being called the Region of Death.

Try to follow along if you can. At the top of this bracket is Kansas. Kansas was the tournament’s #1 overall seed (in name only). They are regular season and tournament champions of the best conference in basketball this season. At the bottom of this bracket is the two seed Ohio State. The Buckeyes were co-champions and tournament champions of the Big Ten. A hot Georgetown team was the three seed, but Little Racist III and company are coming back to D.C. a little early. How do you give up 97 points to Ohio? To sum up for JTIII…two years of Greg Monroe and Austin Freeman, but zero NCAA Tournament wins. Yikes. The fifth seed, potentially waiting for Maryland on Sunday, is Michigan State. The Spartans were another one of the co-champions of the Big Ten. Even further down the list you find sixth seed Tennessee. The Vols were ranked pretty much the entire season. Oklahoma State is the seven seed, one of only two teams to beat Kansas all season. The Cowboys were uber-competitive in the Big XII. Northern Iowa and their potential first round draft pick forward are in the region. Maryland’s nemesis Georgia Tech is even here too. If you asked me to create a nightmare bracket for the Terps, it would look something like this.

Just look at the coaches other than Gary Williams. You have former National Champion Bill Self. Former National Champion Tom Izzo (and that’s just on the top half of the bracket). Final Four participant Thad Matta is here. As much as I’ve made fun of him, Paul Hewitt led the Jackets to the Championship Game in 2004. This is just a brutal collection of 16 teams. By far one of the hardest regions I’ve seen in a long time. The other three regions are soft (the South is extremely soft). It’s as if the committee assembled the four regions separately, then slapped them together at the last minute without checking their overall body of work. I have no problem with Maryland playing hard teams. But they’d have to potentially beat Michigan State AND Kansas just to get to the regional finals…not even the Final Four. That’s a little extreme.

Well, there’s nothing Maryland can do about it. They have to play who they are assigned to play. In the first round, the Terrapins draw the C-USA Champion Houston Cougars. The Cougs are led by Tom Penders. That’s the same Tom Penders that built Texas up from the ground and the same Tom Penders who was fired from the Longhorns (and later George Washington) for a number of scandals. In Austin, Penders was run out of town for doctoring players’ grades. On a scale of one-to-ten, that’s certainly not the worst offense that ever occurred. However, Penders reign in Foggy Bottom was cut short after several problems. Not only were many of his players in question academically, Atilla Cosby was accused of rape and possessing firearms on campus. That’s disgusting, but it was made even worse by the fact that Penders tried to hide that from the GW administration. There was also a phone card issue with his son, who at the time was one of the assistant coaches. Those are just the cliff-notes of some of the issues. Google the rest if you are interested.

So Penders took a brief leave of absence then was forced into hiding in Houston. He built the Cougars up during his first three seasons on campus. Then when high expectations hit in 2006, his team bottomed out at 18-15. Following two 20-win seasons, but no NCAA Tournament appearances, Penders was on thin ice entering the 09-10 year. When his team finished the year 15-15, with losses to San Diego, Texas-San Antonio, Central Florida (twice), Southern Miss and Tulane, it was a well-known secret that Penders either had to win the CUSA Tournament or hit the unemployment line. The Cougars won four straight, including a thrilling comeback in the final against UTEP to claim the Tournament and save Penders’ job.

The Houston Cougars are led on the court by Aubrey Coleman. Coleman averaged an eye-popping 25.6 points a game. Not only was that best on the team and best in the conference, that was best in the entire NCAA. On top of his 25.6 ppg, he also averages 7.4 boards a game and 2.6 assists per. He’s a little reckless with the ball at times, and he doesn’t play a whole lot of defense. But if there’s someone who is easily comparable to the 6’4” guard, it’s none other than Greivis Vasquez. Like Vasquez, Coleman rarely sees a shot he doesn’t like. He’ll spot up from deep, but he’s much more effective when he’s driving to hoop. There aren’t a lot of ways to stop him. Taking a charge is one way, but that may come with other consequences. Like his coach, he comes with some baggage.

The problem with Coleman doing a little bit of everything is that few other players on Houston do anything. This is as close to a one-man team as you will see in college basketball. Most the plays that are run are for Coleman. They’ll set a lot of ball screens and pick-and-rolls for Coleman to get open. Other than that, the Cougars run some offensive sets for 6’4” guard Kelvin Lewis. Most of the other players are left to fend for themselves offensively. The Terps are going to face a team that is smaller than they are, and one of the few teams in Division 1 that are statistically worse at rebounding than they are. I watched most of the UTEP-Houston final, and I didn’t see one organized play run for any of the bigger Cougars. Houston brings new meaning to the term “guard-oriented”.


Jordan Williams will probably have a height advantage like this in the game today.

Other than Coleman and Lewis, the Terps will have to contend with about five other Houston players. Penders rarely goes eight-deep. Maurice McNeil is the only forward of note. He’s similar to Milbourne in a lot of ways, but he doesn’t have the range that Landon has. Kendrick Washington is the other forward who sees significant playing time. He’s a hefty freshman (6’7”, 270 lbs) that isn’t really in the shape to be much of a factor. The Cougars also use Zamal Nixon, Adam Brown and Desmond Wade in their backcourt. All are quick, but undersized guards. None of them shoot particularly well, especially from outside. The Cougars only shoot 35% for three as a team…and that number was much worse until a week ago. Coleman doesn’t shoot well from outside, but Lewis does. The two play off each other very well.

The big question for the Cougars is defense. While Houston does force a good deal of turnovers, they allow their opponents to get too many open looks. This is a team that gave up 92 points to Memphis, 94 points to SMU, 99 points to Louisiana Tech and 112 points to Nevada (in regulation) this season. The Cougs allowed nearly 75 points a game, and it wasn’t like they were playing in a powerhouse conference.

For Maryland, it’s simple. If the Terps play their game, they win. Houston was a team that wouldn’t have been in this tournament if it wasn’t for a hot finish. This is a team that finished under .500 in a lousy conference. For the first time all season, Maryland has the height advantage. The Terrapins don’t only have to own the boards, they have to dominate them. Assuming that Vasquez and Coleman cancel themselves out, Jordan Williams and Milbourne should give Maryland the advantage. Houston likes to run, so does Maryland. Houston likes to use their guards to win, so does Maryland. The Terps and Cougars play similar games, but the Terps do it at a higher level…and Houston doesn’t have anyone like Williams inside. However, I hope the Terps were paying attention to the carnage around the country yesterday. Five double-digit seeds won. Tennessee, Villanova, New Mexico and a host of others were awfully close to losing. Maryland could easily go down if they get cute, allow the other Cougars to contribute by worrying too much about Coleman and if Milbourne disappears again. Look ahead to Michigan State and Kansas at your own risk. I think Maryland’s seniors won’t let them lose here, at least not against a team that doesn’t play defense.

Maryland 82
Houston 71



Meanwhile, I took it on the chin a bit yesterday. I lost a lot of the toss-up games. Since there were so many great and close contests yesterday, it was hard to be upset about it. But the overall record is an ugly 9-7 (with special thanks to UNLV, San Diego State, Texas and Vanderbilt).

EAST REGION

Jacksonville Memorial Arena
Jacksonville, FL

#13 Wofford Terriers (26-8, 15-3 SoCon) vs.
#4 Wisconsin Badgers (23-8, 13-5 Big Ten)
We start out the 2nd day with yet another trendy upset pick (the four seeds seem to be targeted this season). I would agree with that if Wisconsin was the type of team that was aggressive offensively and turned the ball over a healthy amount. Unfortunately for the Terriers, making their first NCAA Tournament appearance, Wisconsin is not one of those teams. Bo Ryan’s squads may be boring to watch. They may play like there’s a lid on the basket. They may remind you of 1950’s basketball. But being a team that’s careless with the basketball isn’t one of their traits.
Pick: Wisconsin 62, Wofford 53

#12 Cornell Big Red (27-4, 13-1 Ivy) vs.
#5 Temple Owls (29-5, 14-2 A-10)

Contrary to all the bitching this week, I don’t think that either of these teams are poorly seeded. The committee screwed up a lot of the seeds, but I have a hard time getting upset about an Ivy League team being given a 12-seed.

Like the matchup above, this is yet another trendy upset special. Heck, if you listen to Jay Bilas long enough, you’d believe that Cornell is destined for the Elite Eight. They aren’t. They aren’t bound for the Sweet 16. They aren’t even bound for Sunday. Let me repeat what I said before. This is an Ivy League team. They aren’t coached by Pete Carril. Ryan Wittman is a nice player. The team as a whole can shoot well. But their interior game isn’t going to scare many teams. At least teams in the NCAA Tournament. Jeff Foote is a good forward for the Ivy League, but he’s a stick figure. The Big Red are also running in to a Temple team that plays some of the best perimeter defense in the nation. In other words, look elsewhere for an upset.
Pick: Temple 55, Cornell 46


In case you didn't know, that's Jeff Foote. Chances are that's the power forward you have playing in the Sweet 16. Sorry it's too late to chance your bracket.

HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY

#15 Morgan State Bears (27-9, 15-1 MEAC) vs.
#2 West Virginia Mountaineers (27-6, 13-5 Big East)

I’ve been on the fence all week about the Queers. I’m still on the fence about them, even though I’ve locked my bracket. This team could easily lose in the next round, since they have very rarely played a full 40-minute game. Everyone looks and sees “Big East Champion” next to their name, but you have to remember that they played the 11th, 7th and 8th seeded teams in that 3-week long tournament (at least that’s how long it feels). They didn’t have to play Pitt, Nova or Syracuse. So it’s not that impressive. And case you missed it, the Big East was 1-3 yesterday, and the one was Villanova winning in overtime against Robert Morris. That doesn’t bode well for an already overrated conference. Ugh, I already regret picking them to go as far as I did.
Pick: West Virginia 68, Morgan State 49

#10 Missouri Tigers (22-10, 10-6 Big XII) vs.
#7 Clemson Tigers (21-10, 9-7 ACC)

One of three ACC-Big XII first round matchups, and one of two that are 7-10 games. I don’t really know what to do with either one. I’ve been leaning toward picking the Big XII schools based on the strength of their conference. But both games present favorable matchups for the ACC teams.

I was impressed with Missouri until about late February. They were non-competitive against Kansas, then dropped their first Big XII Tournament game against awful Nebraska. So they are cold. Their run-and-gun, high-pressure style may actually benefit Clemson. Maryland tried pressing the living daylights out of the Tigers, and it failed miserably. Mizzou’s pressure defense could help Clemson get easy baskets. On the flip side, Clemson’s Tigers are even colder than Missouri’s. The loss to NC State in the ACC Tourney was abysmal. Because of Oliver Purnell, Dino Gaudio and Leonard Hamilton, I have a feeling that the ACC has no real chance doing well in the Big Dance. When in doubt, go with the better coach. Mike Anderson > Purnell. Also when in doubt, and you figure a game will be close, go with the team that hits free throws. Clemson is terrible at the stripe.
Pick: Missouri 75, Clemson 73

SOUTH REGION

#16 Ark.-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (18-15, 14-4 SWAC) vs.
#1 Duke Blue Devils (29-5, 13-3 ACC)
It’s been repeated ad nauseam that the Blue Devils don’t deserve a #1 seed nor do they deserve an easy bracket. I don’t necessarily agree with the #1 seed argument. They had just as good a case as WVU, Ohio State or Kansas State. But the soft bracket, one of the softest I’ve ever seen, is a legitimate argument. This article may shed some light on the situation. It all adds up. The NCAA is in a contract year. UNC, UConn and Arizona are nowhere to be found. Other than Kansas, a Midwest team that won’t draw the ratings, Dook is all CBS and the committee think they have. So Kansas is the #1 overall seed in name only. It’s clear that the committee cleared the road for Dook as much as they could. I’ll go more in to this on Sunday.
Pick: Duke 76, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54

#9 Louisville Cardinals (20-12, 11-7 Big East) vs.
#8 California Golden Bears (23-10, 13-5 Pac-10)
Remember back in November when I said that there were two teams ranked ahead of Maryland that shouldn’t be? Those two teams were Cal and Michigan. While the Wolverines were a complete and utter failure this season, Cal also proved me right despite winning the Pac-10 regular season crown outright. They’ve dealt with some injuries, but they’ve also simply played poorly at times. Their losses to Oregon State and USC came with their entire roster healthy. I’m not sure what the excuse could be for dropping those games. Jerome Randle put up similar numbers to last year. Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson (between injuries) did as well. However, the rest of the team disappeared. Cal gets relatively nothing from their bench. Their rebounding effort is well below average. Every time they step out of conference, there’s a chance that they’ll be bullied off the court.

Louisville sort of got their act together in the last couple week of the regular season. They’ve had a lot of turmoil off the court this year, and managed to overcome it. I hate picking against Rick Pitino in the tournament. I just wish the Cardinals’ strategy this season was something more comprehensive than jacking up 30 three’s a game. Louisville is well rested, so they should be able to hit shots during the first weekend.
Pick: Louisville 74, California 68

Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA

#13 Siena Saints (27-6, 17-1 MAAC) vs.
#4 Purdue Boilermakers (27-5, 14-4 Big Ten)

If you are Saints coach Fran McCaffery, you are both annoyed and thrilled. He’s got to be annoyed with the 13th seed, considering that Siena was a nine seed last year and won a game. This team is easily better than last year’s, yet they are four seeds lower.

However, the #4 seed they are facing might as well be a dead team walking. The Boilers have been in shock since Robbie Hummel tore his ACL. Since that time, Purdue is 3-2, but three of the wins came against Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern. Two of those wins were very close. In their two losses to Michigan and Minnesota, Purdue was never in the game and failed to score 50 points. Instead of rallying around E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, it appears the Boilermakers are going to go the way of Cincinnati the year that Kenyon Martin broke his leg. I don’t really like Siena, I just don’t trust Purdue.
Pick: Siena 64, Purdue 57

#12 Utah State Aggies (27-7, 14-2 WAC) vs.
#5 Texas A&M Aggies (23-9, 11-5 Big XII)

Really, the NCAA committee needs to double-check their work. First of all, you have the Bears-Bearkats (Baylor-Sam Houston St), Tigers-Tigers (Mizzou and Clemson) and Aggies-Aggies in the first round. Second, this is the third straight year that A&M has to open against a team from the Beehive State. After playing the Stormin’ Mormons the last two seasons, the Aggies get Utah State in round one this year. I thought the committee was supposed to stop these kind of things from happening.

Anyway, Texas A&M is the kind of team that should be built to succeed in the tourney. This team looked shaky in the early season, but after Derrick Roland broke his leg in gruesome fashion in late December, they re-invented themselves and got better (are you listening Purdue). The Aggies have a star player and go-to scorer in Donald Sloan. They have three other players that average nearly 10 points per game. There’s balance in both the frontcourt and backcourt. They don’t turn the ball over a lot. They scrap inside. They rebound well. They’ve had to play in the toughest conference in college basketball. Mark Turgeon has coaching experience in this tournament (with Wichita State). It’s all there for this team to succeed. The only thing they don’t do well is shoot free throws, which will probably come back to bite them somewhere.

Utah State is an interesting team that at one point won 17 games in a row. However, they didn’t play the most challenging schedule. BYU (who they beat) and St. Mary’s (who they did not) were basically their toughest out-of-conference games. They lost twice to New Mexico State, who beat them in the WAC Finals. While they are statistically better than their Aggie counterparts, the stats are somewhat hollow. Tai Wesley and Nate Bendall are pretty good forwards. They have enough muscle inside to give Turgeon and company trouble. I just don’t see them beating a team that’s as tested as A&M.
Pick: Texas A&M 70, Utah State 62

MIDWEST REGION


Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA

#12 New Mexico State Aggies (22-11, 11-5 WAC) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (24-8, 14-4 Big Ten)
This tournament just keeps getting more Aggie-rific. How ‘bout some kudos to the Land of Enchantment. The state of New Mexico somehow managed to get their only two Division 1 programs into the big dance. Well done.

The Aggies get themselves a beatable five seed. We’ll HOPEFULLY have a chance to talk a lot more about the Spartans on Sunday (unless NMSU pulls off an upset), but the end of the year didn’t go very well for Michigan State. Chris Allen was suspended. Delvon Roe has been dealing with a potentially severe knee injury. The frontcourt, which has long been a Tom Izzo strength, faded a little bit the last month of the season. The Spartans have struggled with consistency since early February. They lost three in a row at one point. They barely scratched across two wins against Penn State. They got bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. So it hasn’t been a great ending.

Still, it’s important to remember that this team is still coached by Izzo and led by Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan. This was a team that was ranked #2 in the AP preseason poll. This is a team that returns all but one player from their squad last season…a team that lost in the National Championship game. If anyone can turn this team around in the NCAA Tournament, it’s Izzo. The Aggies will have a chance if they get MSU into a track meet. Five players scored more than 10 ppg during the season. That includes Jahmar Young who averaged 20.5. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Aggies out-gunned Sparty, but I know better than to bet against Izzo.
Pick: Michigan State 74, New Mexico State 67

Bradley Center
Milwaukee, WI
#15 UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (20-9, 12-4 Big West) vs.
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (27-7, 14-4 Big Ten)

This past September, I stopped by UCSB on a great road trip from San Diego to San Francisco. The school is actually located in Goleta, not Santa Barbara. The campus is located between low-lying mountains and the Pacific Ocean. The architecture around the school is beautiful and fits in perfectly with the scenery. However, I was disappointed by the heavily advertised lagoon. Between the main part of campus and the Pacific proper, the ocean forms a lagoon on campus property. I imagined clear bluish-green water with tons of coeds around. Instead, it was basically a pond with algae all over it. Because of the shoddy state of the lagoon, and also because of Evan Turner, I’m going with the Buckeyes in this one.
Pick: Ohio State 73, UCSB 51


UCSB campus and lagoon. It didn't look that nice when I was there

#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (22-12, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-10, 9-7 Big XII)
I know that the Cowboys have a great backcourt. James Anderson is one of the better combo guards in the entire country. For Tech, as we know by now, their backcourt only shows up against Maryland. Most of the time, their guards have trouble simply inbounding the ball.

I’m going with the Jackets for two reasons. The first is the intimidating frontline of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal (even Zach Peacock has played well recently). Ok State is very small inside. The second is the way both teams finished the season. The Boys floundered at the end of the Big XII season, while the Jackets made it to the NCAA Tournament. True, the Jackets beat UNC, an uninterested Maryland team and NC State, but at least they got that winning feeling.
Pick: Georgia Tech 69, Oklahoma State 63

WEST REGION


HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY

#16 Vermont Catamounts (25-9, 12-4 America East) vs.
#1 Syracuse Orange (28-4, 15-3 Big East)

If any 16 seed is ever going to win in this tournament, this is the one. Syracuse will probably be without Arinze Onuaku, which means they’ll play six guys. The best athlete on the floor isn’t going to be wearing an Orange uniform, but will actually be Vermont’s Marqus Blakely. The loss of Onuaku will only make Blakely more effective inside. The Syracuse 2-3 zone is great, unless a team has a good shooting night. And the Catamounts can definitely shoot (45% as a team). Plus, these two teams have a history. If you need another reason, Gus Johnson will be calling the games in Buffalo. If a #1 seed loses in the first round, I think it will be a requirement that Johnson be there. Even though it’s going to take a big undertaking from Vermont to win this game, I wouldn’t be stunned if the Orange find themselves in trouble…or even lose this game.
Pick: Syracuse 78, Vermont 61

#9 Florida State Seminoles (22-9, 10-6 ACC) vs.
#8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-6, 12-2 WCC)

We know all about FSU. This is a defense first team that has the potential to win any game they play because they’ll scrap, make it low-scoring and ugly. That said, the Noles have problems getting consistent scoring from anybody, their offense is too stagnant to do damage in the NCAA Tournament and their coach is Leonard Hamilton. That’s a lot of problems for a team to overcome to make a deep run.

Mark Few’s bunch is the least talented in recent memory, but it’s probably one of the best coaching jobs that Few has done. Remember, this is a Gonzaga team that lost three superstars, and Matt Bouldin was the only player to return that contributed significantly to last year’s squad. Few’s coaching job is reminiscent of Gary Williams’ coaching effort last season. However, there just isn’t enough talent on this team for a deep run. While both teams could present big trouble for Syracuse in the 2nd round, it’s impossible to know when either team will come out and lay an egg. I’ll go with the proven coach for the W in this game.
Pick: Gonzaga 71, Florida State 66

Bradley Center
Milwaukee, WI

#14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies (26-8, 17-1 Summit) vs.
#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (24-8, 13-5 Big East)

Didn’t the Steelers already lose to the Raiders this season? I don’t like Pittsburgh’s chances with Ben Roethlisberger potentially looking at jail time. No seriously folks, this probably won’t be much of a game. Despite Jamie Dixon’s looooooong history of losing with higher seeded teams in this tournament, even he won’t screw things up here. Oakland played very few teams of significance. Every time the Grizzlies did, they were blown out. This won’t be any different.
Pick: Pittsburgh 73, Oakland 54

#11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (21-13, 9-9 Big Ten) vs.
#6 Xavier Musketeers (24-8, 14-2 A-10)

First of all, Tubby Smith earns credit for policing his team this season. He had players in trouble off the court and in trouble academically…and they all got the boot. For a team on the bubble fringe all season, and a team that had a good deal of expectations, that’s not an easy decision to make. So good on Tubby, who I still feel got a raw deal at Kentucky.

The Gophers have a lot of nice pieces, but it really hasn’t added up for Minnesota all season. They score over 70 points a game. They are an above average rebounding team. Minnesota has a 1.3/1 turnover/assist ratio. They shoot well from everywhere (47% fg, 70% ft, 40% 3-pt). They play good defense…certainly enough to hang in the defense-obsessed Big Ten. So why inconsistent? It just seems that the Gophers can’t get everyone on the same page at the same time. They’ve been inconsistent all season long, and that probably won’t change in the tournament.

Xavier is a proven commodity. Jordan Crawford is one heck of a player. Chris Mack is just the next in the long line of coaches to have success at the small private school. The Musketeers always seem to overachieve this time of year. I don’t expect this year to be any different. As you see, I have them in the Sweet 16, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they go even further. I think the Gophers are going to run into trouble outside of their low-scoring conference.
Pick: Xavier 74, Minnesota 66

Thursday, March 18, 2010

2010 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 1

Ready for the tournament? The locked bracket is first, so you can come back after the weekend and enjoy a good laugh. Following that are all 16 games for Thursday, check back tomorrow for Friday.

East Region
1st Round Winners: Kentucky, Texas, Temple, Wisconsin, Washington, New Mexico, Missouri, West Virginia
2nd Round Winners: Kentucky, Wisconsin, New Mexico, West Virginia
Sweet 16 Winners: Kentucky, West Virginia
Regional Winner: Kentucky

South Region
1st Round Winners: Duke, Louisville, Texas A&M, Siena, Notre Dame, Baylor, St. Mary’s, Villanova
2nd Round Winners: Louisville, Texas A&M, Baylor, Villanova
Sweet 16 Winners: Texas A&M, Villanova
Regional Winner: Villanova

Midwest Region
1st Round Winners: Kansas, UNLV, Michigan State, Maryland, San Diego State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Ohio State
2nd Round Winners: Kansas, Maryland, Georgetown, Ohio State
Sweet 16 Winners: Kansas, Ohio State
Regional Winner: Kansas

West Region
1st Round Winners: Syracuse, Gonzaga, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas State
2nd Round Winners: Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Kansas State
Sweet 16 Winners: Syracuse, Kansas State
Regional Winner: Kansas State

Final Four: Kansas over Kansas State, Kentucky over Villanova
Final Game: Kansas 72, Kentucky 68


EAST REGION

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA

#16 East Tennessee State Buccaneers (20-14, 13-7 A-Sun) vs.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (32-2, 14-2 SEC)

Poor Bucs. They were a 16th seed last year against overrated Pitt. Even though they were game for awhile last season, this a much tougher task for ETSU. Let’s not waste any more time on 16 seeds, ok?
Pick: Kentucky 80, East Tennessee State 57


Sure he can get you to the Final Four. But how long will your school be able to celebrate it before vacating?

#9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-10, 9-7 ACC) vs.
#8 Texas Longhorns (24-9, 9-7 Big XII)

In the battle of which coach can choke away more talent, Rick Barnes is far exceeding Dino Gaudio. However, the Deacs were so bad down the stretch of the regular season, I convinced myself I wouldn’t pick them no matter where they ended up. Since Dexter Pittman can handle Al-Farouq Aminu inside, I have no problems moving the Longhorns along. Regardless of the outcome, this is going to be one apathetic basketball game. If neither team showed up, it wouldn’t surprise me.
Pick: Texas 76, Wake Forest 65

HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA

#14 Montana Grizzlies (22-9, 10-6 Big Sky) vs.
#3 New Mexico Lobos (29-4, 14-2 Mountain West)

The Grizzlies were one of the surprise conference winners, coming from the fourth spot in the Big Sky to upset Weber State. This squad is not nearly as talented as the one that went up again Nevada a couple of years ago as a 12-seed and won. Still, they can’t be ignored. Anthony Johnson scored 42 points in the Big Sky championship game. I actually watched the entire second half when Johnson scored 34 of his 42. Even though Weber State refused to double-team him, his performance was very impressive. If he had done it in a major conference, that’s all anyone would have been talking about last week. Last note on the Grizzlies: the head coach is named Wayne Tinkle. Just throwing that out there.

Unfortunately for Montana, they run into my favorite mid-major of the year. Everything about New Mexico screams power conference team…from their coach (former Indiana star and Iowa coach Steve Alford), to their roster (two players turned down scholarships from premier Big XII schools) to their schedule (eight wins over other tournament teams). The only thing that holds them back is the fact they’re in the Mountain West and not the Big XII. The real scary thing is that they only have one senior on the team. This may just be the first of many tournament runs for the Lobos.
Pick: New Mexico 77, Montana 62


Won't be long before you know who Darington Hobson is.

***PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#11 Washington Huskies (24-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs.
#6 Marquette Golden Eagles (22-11, 11-7 Big East)

Washington sure made things interesting this season. The Huskies were supposed to cruise into the NCAA Tournament, but needed to win the Pac-10 tourney just to seal an invite. But, to disregard UW because of the rough time they had in the lousy Pac-10 would be a mistake. Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are a dangerous 1-2 combination. Washington has several guys who can eat up the glass. The Huskies get in trouble when the other team is able to shut down either Pondexter or Thomas, since no one else seems to fill the scoring void.

Marquette is probably a couple of spots too high (the Big East teams continue to get gift seeding…have we learned nothing from last year’s three #1 seed but no finalists fiasco). The Eagles haven’t done a whole lot in the tournament since Dwayne Wade left school. Of the eight Big East teams in the field, Marquette should be the least scary to the opposition. However, the Eagles have a penchant for playing very close games (18 games decided by one possession). So this should be a good one. I like the Huskies here. It’s a shorter trip to San Jose for them and they haven’t lost a game since February 18th. Here’s the first official upset.
Pick: Washington 71, Marquette 69

SOUTH REGION


New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA

#14 Sam Houston State Bearkats (25-7, 14-2 Southland) vs.
#3 Baylor Bears (25-7, 11-5 Big XII)

The South Region is an absolute joke ladies and gentlemen. The committee tried their best to hand the Dookies a cakewalk to Indianapolis. And other than a sneaky tough game against Louisville in the 2nd round, it should be smooth sailing for Ratface, even though he’s done less with more over the last five seasons. More on that tomorrow.

The NCAA matches the Bears and Bearkats (yes, that spelling is correct) in an all-Texas battle for ursine supremacy. Baylor has floated beneath the radar all year because they play in the shadow of Kansas, Kansas State and Texas. However, the Bears have proven that they are truly the 3rd best team from college basketball’s best conference. Anyone one of these mid-level Big XII teams (Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M and OK State) could cause some real headaches for high seeds. It would not surprise me at all if Baylor navigated their way to the Final Four. I see no way for Sam Houston State to slow down Ekpe Udoh inside or stop the slasher LaceDarius Dunn from getting to the hoop. You just don’t see players like that in the Southland Conference. This is a Bearkats team that’s already lost games this season to Western Michigan and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Pick: Baylor 82, Sam Houston State 63

#11 Old Dominion Monarchs (26-8, 15-3 CAA) vs.
#6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (23-11, 10-8 Big East)

The Irish are the other Big East team that is at least two seeds too high. Remember, Notre Dame was out of the tournament just a couple of weeks ago. I know they had some decent wins since the calendar turned to March, but not enough to warrant jumping about 20 other teams for seeding.

I have been impressed with the complete makeover that Ratface disciple Mike Brey has done with the Irish. When Luke Harangody was injured a few weeks ago, Brey’s team went from jacking up every shot they could take to playing Big Ten-style basketball. It worked so well, that Brey didn’t change a thing when Harangody returned to action. The results have been promising. Before Harangody’s injury, the Irish somehow lost seven games when scoring 70 or more points. Since the strategy change to a defense-first/take the air out of the ball mentality, the Irish have only scored 70+ points once in seven games, but they are 6-1. So great job with mid-season adjustments by Brey and his turtleneck…something he certainly didn’t learn during his time in Durham.

ODU is your typical scrappy CAA team. The Colonial has produced several upsets in recent seasons: namely the VCU Maynors win over Duke in ’07 and the ultimate Cinderella with George Mason in ‘05. Despite a desire to pick Blaine Taylor and his awesome mustache, I don’t see the Monarchs carrying the same type of mojo. Their best player isn’t an Eric Maynor or Lamar Butler-type combo guard. It’s hulking 6’10” Finnish forward Gerald Lee. Lee is a fine talent for the CAA, but way to slow and slender to compete with the big boys. Their only marquee win was against Georgetown, which was way back in mid-December when the Hoyas weren’t letting Greg Monroe touch the ball. I also don’t see ODU being patient enough to hang with new-Notre Dame for 35 seconds on every possession
Pick: Notre Dame 58, Old Dominion 47

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI

#15 Robert Morris Colonials (23-11, 15-3 NEC) vs.
#2 Villanova Wildcats (24-7, 13-5 Big East)

For my money, the Wildcats should be the favorite in this region. They have the horses on the perimeter to run with the Dookies, and they can out-shoot anyone else in this region (although Baylor could give them trouble inside). However, they need to wake up out of this Texas-like nose-dive they’ve taken the last couple of weeks.
Pick: Villanova 83, Robert Morris 58

#10 St. Mary’s Gaels (26-5, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#7 Richmond Spiders (26-8, 13-3 A-10)

Really, these seeds should be reversed. I haven’t been impressed with Richmond all season. Sure they deserve to make the tournament. But they went 26-8 while playing in the A-10. I don’t care how good the conference was perceived to be. That kind of record from a mid-major does not scream white jersey seeding for the first round. Yes Richmond beat Missouri, but they also lost South Carolina and VCU. They have two players of note with Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez. Other than that, there isn’t much to look at. They are above average shooters, but still struggle to score 70 points a game. The Spiders struggle on both sides of the glass. Their bench only provides about eight points a game. I’ve seen them play a handful times, and other than Gonzalvez’s shooting ability, nothing jumps off the screen.

On the other hand, St. Mary’s punched their ticket this season (after being left out last year with Patty Mills). On paper, and in person, they are a better team than Richmond. However, most of their games are played after the committee members go to bed. Their only bad loss is to USC. Other than that, they’ve lost twice to Gonzaga (a team they then beat by 19 in the WCC final) and once to Vandy. All five of the Gaels starters average more than ten points a game. Omar Samhan and Ben Allen should eat up the smaller Spider frontcourt. I doubt Richmond’s defense will be able to keep the Gaels under 70, and that should be enough for St. Mary’s. The only thing that concerns me is the cross-country trip.
Pick: St. Mary’s 74, Richmond 67

MIDWEST REGION


Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK

#16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks (22-10, 10-4 Patriot) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-2, 15-1 Big XII)

So Bill Self…how do you like this draw? A potentially pesky UNLV club in the 2nd round. The Maryland/Michigan State winner in the 3rd. Any one of the Ohio State/Georgetown/Tennessee trifecta in the regional finals. And that’s just to get to the Final Four. All this for a team that was the so-called #1 overall seed, a team that lost only twice (on the road to teams in the tournament), won their conference (the best conference in the nation) easily and won their tournament easily. And this is their reward? Who needs enemies with friends like that?
Pick: Kansas 86, Lehigh 53

#9 Northern Iowa Panthers (28-4, 15-3 MVC) vs.
#8 UNLV Rebels (25-8, 11-5 Mountain West)

Glad to see UNI slotted this low. I was sure that they’d grab a six or seven seed. The Panthers did a great job trying to manufacture the RPI so they would get that higher seed, but the committee didn’t bite. They played their Iowa brethren, scheduled BC, DePaul, Siena and Wyoming. Never mind that other Siena, all those teams were terrible this season. Look at us! We’re playing real schools!

UNI has some talent. They have a sniper in Ali Farokhmanesh from beyond the arc. They supposedly have a NBA-caliber player in Jordan Eglseder. I’ve seen him play, and while there’s no doubt that Egleseder is a solid college athlete, I really doubt he could find a home at the next level. However, this team is very similar to Richmond. They have some talent, but they still don’t score a lot (63.3 ppg) and their rebounding is subpar. Other than Eglseder, it’s hard to find someone else who hits the glass with regularity. And while they only turn the ball over 10.5 times a game, they only average 10.7 assists. So this is a team that’s going to dribble around for 25-30 seconds and jack up the first open look they get. The Panthers are going to try to wear you down and hope you aren’t as patient as they are.

The Rebels have too much talent for that. Lon Kruger continues to do a fabulous job in Vegas. Three years ago UNLV made the Sweet 16. Two years ago they won their first round game. Last year they were jobbed of a tournament bid…but had they been invited, I have no doubt they would have made the 2nd round. Even though Tre’Von Willis is responsible for 17.3 ppg, there are plenty of other players who chip in anywhere from six to ten points a game. UNLV is also adaptable. They can win high-scoring games or they can win slugfests. They’ve been successful at both in the wild Mountain West. Given the Rebels’ ability to play at their opponents pace and win, and given their recent track record in the NCAA’s and the Missouri Valley’s recent struggles, this looks like a no-brainer.
Pick: UNLV 69, Northern Iowa 61

Dunkin Donuts Center
Providence, RI

#14 Ohio Bobcats (21-14, 7-9 MAC) vs.
#3 Georgetown Hoyas (23-10, 10-8 Big East)

This game – and tournament in general – is easy for the Hoyas. All they have to do is get the ball to Greg Monroe and they’ll have a chance to beat anyone. If they fool around with mid-range jumpers and let guys like Shane Clark take more shots than Monroe, they could lose to any team. Ohio is a great story, coming out of ninth place in the cannibalistic MAC, and was the lowest seed to win any of the conference tournaments. They can score a lot and their team shooting percentage is pretty good (over 42%). But this team is tiny. They only have one guy over 6’7” that plays serious minutes. Georgetown should be able to push these guys around, but only if Little Racist III gets his head of his butt.
Pick: Georgetown 70, Ohio 53

#11 San Diego State Aztecs (25-8, 11-5 Mountain West) vs.
#6 Tennessee Volunteers (25-8, 11-5 SEC)

Tennessee has got to be wondering what it did wrong. Not only were the Vols given a sixth seed (probably a spot or two too low), but they were placed in the Group of Death. Tough break for a team that knocked off both Kansas and Kentucky.

It gets even worse for Tennessee with this matchup. The Aztecs are one of the hottest teams in this tournament. Needing to at least get to the finals of the MWC tournament, SDSU beat New Mexico and UNLV and won the whole thing. What makes this matchup really difficult for Tennessee is the Aztec consistency. The Volunteers are a very streaky team. They either hit outside shots and win, or miss outside shots and lose handedly. San Diego State uses their dominant frontcourt for consistent points. Malcolm Thomas is a great all-around player. He can score, rebound and block shots with the best of them. And while Kawhi Leonard isn’t quiet the defender that Thomas is, he’s actually a better offensive threat. These two are the reason that the Aztecs have been steady throughout the season.

Because Thomas and Leonard are 6’7” and 6’8” respectively, a bigger frontcourt can push these guys around. However, Tennessee doesn’t possess that. They do most of their scoring from outside, and they aren’t great rebounders. This is one of the better finesse teams in college basketball. SDSU has been a popular upset pick all week, and I usually shy away from the popular pick (especially if it’s an upset). However, I don’t trust Bruce Pearl and his techno-color dream coat. The Vols are reliant on their outside shots to fall…and that’s not a guaranteed proposition. The Aztecs fought their way through a very tough conference and get their offense more consistently.
Pick: San Diego State 72, Tennessee 66


Gotta like SDSU's frontcourt talent

WEST REGION

HP Pavilion
San Jose, CA

#13 Murray State Racers (30-4, 17-1 OVC) vs.
#4 Vanderbilt Commodores (24-8, 12-4 SEC)

Depending on who you ask, the Commodores could either make it to the Elite 8 or lose in the first round. I have a feeling that their run will end somewhere in between. As much as I love Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt has struggled in recent tournaments, and despite overachieving at a school with almost impossible academic requirements (and playing in a conference that barely requires the athletes to show up to class), Stallings hasn’t given anyone a reason to take Vanderbilt seriously in the NCAA Tournament. A team with A.J. Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal should be dangerous, but losses this season to South Carolina, Georgia and Western Kentucky suggest otherwise.

On the other hand, Murray State has become a trendy upset pick. The Racers can score (77 ppg). They take their school nickname literally and get up and down the floor better than many teams in this tournament. However, it’s hard for me to get excited about their 30-4 record. Look at their schedule and try to name me their best win. Heck, look at their schedule and try to figure out where half of the schools on there are located. Murray State’s four losses came to Cal, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky and Morehead (resisting opportunity for cheap joke) State. They barely squeaked out a couple of wins in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Their other wins are against terrible teams. I do like their balance (five players average between 10.3 and 10.6 ppg) and the fact they are nine-deep. But they are awfully small, play little defense and their schedule suggests the fact that they can’t beat anyone decent outside of the OVC.
Pick: Vanderbilt 80, Murray State 75

#12 UTEP Miners (26-6, 15-1 CUSA) vs.
#5 Butler Bulldogs (28-4, 18-0 Horizon)

This isn’t your typical Bulldogs team. Butler finally went outside of the Horizon League this season and challenged themselves. They played Clemson, Georgetown, Ohio State, Xavier, Minnesota and UAB…and actually won a couple of those games. They haven’t lost since December 22nd. They score a lot more than those old-fashion Butler teams from last decade. The Bulldogs average 70 ppg, which is leaps and bounds over what they used to average. Butler is actually a team that’s worth watching now…which wasn’t the case a couple of years ago.

I’ve tried to figure out a way to take the Miners, and I can’t come up with a good one. I guess I need to take a 12th seed somewhere. I don’t think there’s any way Michigan State or Texas A&M are losing. Cornell over Temple is trendy, but I learned a long time ago to avoid picking Ivy League schools that aren’t named Princeton. So this appears to be the game. It’s not as if the Miners are bad. Randy Culpepper and Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter are outstanding players. UTEP is an athletic teams that runs and could be exactly the type of team that Butler doesn’t want to face. Whatever, I guess I talked myself into an upset.
Pick: UTEP 67, Butler 64

Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK

#15 North Texas Mean Green (24-8, 13-5 Sun Belt) vs.
#2 Kansas State Wildcats (26-7, 11-5 Big XII)

The Sun Belt usually offers us a Western Kentucky or a South Alabama. This year the league was mediocre at best and UNT won the conference through attrition. That’s not a good sign for the Mean Green, since they are facing a team I think is capable of getting the Final Four. We’ll talk more about KSU later in the week.
Pick: Kansas State 81, North Texas 58

#10 Florida Gators (21-12, 9-7 SEC) vs.
#7 BYU Cougars (29-5, 13-3 Mountain West)

Florida was the only team that got a bid that I didn’t predict or agree with. Virginia Tech not getting in was fine. Illinois missing the tournament was even better. However, I don’t see the logic in taking the Gators over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were a tenth of a second away from winning their conference tournament, and would have if the referees had correctly called a lane violation on John Wall. MSU had a better record than Florida and both played similarly strong schedules. Then you take in to account that Florida won two games on buzzer beaters and that their record could easily be 19-14, and all signs point to Mississippi State getting a bid over the Gators.

Nonetheless, it will be a short stay for Florida. BYU really should be seeded 5th. The Gators have no intentions on playing perimeter defense, which is a problem against Jimmer Fredette. The Mountain West was probably stronger than the SEC as a whole this season…so the Cougars are more prepared for this tournament. All signs point to the Stormin’ Mormons moving on.
Pick: BYU 76, Florida 67