2009 NCAA Championship Game

I’m now 45-17 for the tournament. Not bad at all. My locked bracket was somewhat worthless after the Elite 8, but it was better than most (aka, I didn’t take Gonzaga, Duke or Pitt going all that far). It’s been a fun season for NCAA basketball and I apologize once again for my absence in early February. I will hopefully be back soon with some kind of material, but if not, then I guarantee I’ll be back for the NFL season and college basketball season #5 in the fall and winter. Until then, everyone be safe out there this summer, and check in occasionally for some new material. Thanks for reading!



#2 Michigan State Spartans (31-6, 15-3 Big Ten) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4, 13-3 ACC)
National Championship Game
Ford Field – Detroit, MI

Let’s see...I can’t find any Big East teams anywhere. I thought the conference was SOOOOOOOO good. Best of all-time perhaps. Turns out…not so much. May not even be the best this season. On the surface, it’s hard to argue against 17 tournament wins and three #1 seeds. But then you start looking at some of those 17 wins: Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Morehead State, Stephen F. Austin. Also keep in mind that Villanova beat a fellow Big East team. So the 17 wins, while a nice big number, is a little hollow. And as for the #1 seeds? Well, those are done by a committee that was strongly influenced by the media hyping up the Big East all season and also influenced by several lofty regular season records. As we’ve found out, the Big East teams got their lofty records by beating other Big East schools. And as we see by the remaining teams, none of those squads managed to win six, let alone five games in a row against quality competition. A case can still be made for the Big East being the strongest conference this season (although the RPI and current results say otherwise). As far as the best conference of all time? Hardly. Not even close. Let’s put all that talk to bed. Furthermore, Pitt, Louisville and Villanova are all on course to lose the majority of their teams and will all take major steps back next season. Other than UConn, Syracuse and possibly West Virginia or Providence, it could be a very ugly season for the Big Least next year. Enjoy sort of being great this season Big East fans!

Now, while the Big East made their semi-run to the second weekend, the Big Ten has been making the case that they’ve been underrated all season long...potentially proving this prognosticator wrong. Michigan State has carried the league banner all the way to the final game of the year. Purdue made a run to the Sweet 16. Michigan and Wisconsin both scored first round upsets over better ACC schools. Penn State represented by winning the NIT. Other than Ohio State choking one away against Siena, there’s not a lot to be ashamed of in Big Ten country. Could playing defense and scoring 55 points a game actually work? Let’s not get crazy, but it’s possible that the Big Ten schools know something we don’t. I think the conference has done much better than I, or anyone else, believed they could.

MSU has proven that playing in front of roughly 60,000 Spartan fans and playing for an entire state that’s currently in shambles can carry you past a much better team. On paper, they had no business beating Connecticut. I know what the results were, but you can’t convince me that MSU is THAT much better than UConn, or even better at all. Just like on paper, you can’t convince me that the Spartans are better than UNC. Hell, the two teams already played once this year and UNC proved it was 35-points better. But it’s hard to underestimate a team playing for something bigger than itself.

Let’s flash back to December 3rd. The Heels ran the Spartans off the very same Ford Field floor that the two teams will be playing on later tonight. Up 14 at halftime, Carolina went on a real early spurt to make the contest a laugher by the second half’s first TV timeout. Tyler Hansbrough had 25 and 11. Ty Lawson had 17. Wayne Ellington had 17. Deon Thompson had 10 and 7. Ed Davis, who has given UNC solid minutes in the tournament, scored 10 off the bench. The Heels shot 48%, forced Michigan State into 35% shooting, had 20 assists and forced 21 turnovers. There isn’t one stat that favors MSU. It was complete annihilation by a much better UNC team.

Now, some will argue that the Tar Heels didn’t get the Spartans best effort or the Spartans complete team. If they didn’t get the best effort, then shame on the Spartans. Whose fault is that? However, there are two differences in the December 3rd Spartans and the April 6th Spartans. The significant one is Goran Suton, who missed the game due to injury. He has come up big for the Spartans in the tournament. So despite looking like a complete stiff at times, he is an important piece to the puzzle for MSU. Also, Draymond Green was a young freshman back December, and Tom Izzo really didn’t know what to do with him. He played on six minutes in the first game. He’s seen double-digit minutes since early February, and he’s averaged 19 minutes, nine points and five boards in the NCAA. BUT, Raymond Morgan played back in December. Kalin Lucas played. Delvon Roe and Durrell Summers played. Travis Walton, Marquise Gray and Korie Lucious played. It’s not as if the Spartans were missing the majority of their offense or defense. They were missing a player-and-a-half. Is the combination of Suton and an improved Green enough to overcome 35 points? No way.

Take a look at the individual matchups and tell me where MSU has a serious advantage. Or any advantage at all. Suton takes on Hansbrough inside. While Suton can occasionally wander beyond the line and play outside, it’s nothing that Hansbrough hasn’t seen in the ACC. Big Advantage for UNC. Morgan-Roe combination takes on Green and Thompson. Morgan is a great player, but Roe is inconsistent at best. The combination of Green and Thompson will be hard for the undersized Morgan and freshman Roe to stop. At guard, MSU has Walton and Big Ten player of the year Lucas. But UNC counters with Ellington and ACC player of the year Lawson. Lucas may have an advantage over Ellington (if Roy Williams decides to match up that way), but the backcourts combined favor the Heels. Izzo is a better coach than Williams, but there isn’t a lot he can do if he’s overwhelmed at most positions.

I’ll try to make this simple. Let’s start off with that 35-point deficit from the December 3rd game. Let’s assume that UNC doesn’t play as well as they did and Michigan State doesn’t play as poorly as they did. ASSUMING that happens, it’s about an 8-point swing. The addition of Suton is about a 10-point change. The crowd, which will be larger and more boisterous then it was in December is another 7 points or so. Michigan State can eat into a large chunk of that 35-point deficit. But they are still missing anywhere from 8 to 12 additional points…at best. Again, this is assuming that UNC doesn’t repeat their performance level from a few months ago and assuming that bandwagon Tar Heels fans didn’t buy a healthy amount of seats from the departing Villanova and UConn contingent. So most likely, Michigan State is looking at 11 to 14 points that they have to make up in order to win. I don’t see it happening.
Pick: North Carolina 83, Michigan State 71

2009 Final Four

The record stands at 46-14, even if the locked bracket isn't looking so good. Three more to go, back Monday with the championship game.



FINAL FOUR
Ford Field
Detroit, MI

#2 Michigan State Spartans (30-6, 15-3 Big Ten) vs.
#1 Connecticut Huskies (31-4, 15-3 Big East)
It’s been an interesting few days around the college basketball world, and it had nothing to do with anything on the court. The sport once again shot itself in the foot by allowing a major program, in this case Kentucky, to hijack the attention away from the most important weekend of the season. Seriously, couldn’t someone in the NCAA offices in Indianapolis quietly ask Kentucky to wait until next Wednesday to start firing and hiring coaches? Why do it three days before the national semifinal games?

All that aside, it was an interesting move for UK. As you know, I am a rather big Billy Gillispie fan. I think it was a mistake to fire him so quickly, but the Wildcat fanbase has never been rational. That’s one reason why they had to hire Gillispie in the first place. You can’t give someone two years at a major program and expect results. It’s unreasonable. Besides that, Gillispie had Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson returning (neither is going to get drafted) and a very high recruiting class coming. He couldn’t get one more year? I guess I can’t blame Kentucky for jumping on John Calipari when they had the chance, but Gillispie will land on his feet somewhere. In fact, and I know this probably would never happen, Memphis would make a lot of sense for Gillispie and the university. Or he can wait to see what will happen with the rest of the coaching carousel. The Arizona job will most likely open up soon, and that will start a whole new wave of dominoes.

Speaking of coaching changes, Virginia surprised everyone by hiring Tony Bennett. When not lounge singing, Bennett enjoys coaching Wisconsin-style basketball, so we all have that to look forward to come the 2009-10 season here in ACC country. The Bennett hiring is a good one…for the rest of the conference. Big Ten style basketball has no place in the ACC. That may work at Wisconsin or Washington State, but not here. And, Virginia is hiring someone with no ties to the east coast. Good luck recruiting with the Ratfaces and Roys. Heck, he won’t even be able to compete in-state with Slimy Seth. I know Tony had some success recruiting to the remote Palouse, but this is different. You aren’t competing with geography in the ACC, you are competing with several hall-of-famers or future hall-of-famers. Move over Sidney Lowe, you now have company at the bottom of the ACC coaching ranks. This Bennett hiring has mistake written all over it.

Now to the games. Michigan State continues to surprise many, including yours truly. They arrive in Detroit (after an hour bus trip) as the most likeable of the teams remaining. You know I’m not rooting for UNC. You can’t convince me to root for Jim “Dirty, Dirty” Calhoun. Nor will you ever get me to root for a team from Philadelphia, despite the fact that they beat the Scum of the Earth. Plus, I’m exhausted from all the Big East talk. I think MSU’s dominating performance over the Big East’s best team puts to bed any dominant Big East theories for the time being. So Michigan State it is! I like Tom Izzo. Kalin Lucas seems almost likeable too. I wish the Spartans played more entertaining basketball, but beggars can’t be choosers.

The question, and it’s a fair one, is whether or not Michigan State has a chance against UConn. Yeah that may seem drastic, but UConn has played amazing basketball. Missouri gave them a slight challenge in the regional finals. Other than that, no team has been close. The only team that challenged them during the regular season was Pitt. And Pitt is nowhere to be found…shocker, I know. They also fell to Syracuse in six overtimes, but UConn put on their usual uninterested Big East Tournament performance in that one. The loss of Jerome Dyson has had no effect in the tournament, as A.J. Price and freshman Kemba Walker have carried the ball-handling duties during their NCAA Tournament run. And now with all the Calhoun accusations, the Huskies have that “us against the world” mentality that would have otherwise been missing. There aren’t a lot of obvious flaws in the UConn arsenal right now.

So what is the blueprint for a Spartans win? The have to do exactly what they did against Louisville. They have to bore the hell out of UConn. Every time they touch the ball, they need to run at least 20 seconds off the shot clock. They have to force UConn to get out of defensive position by being patient. If they can get the Huskies’ first line of defense out of position, it means that either Hasheem Thabeet or Jeff Adrien will have to play help defense. If they’re forced to do so, then one or both of them could get in early foul trouble. If MSU can get them out of the game, or limit the two of them, then they’ll have an advantage in the frontcourt. They’ll only accomplish this by slowing the game down. If this game gets into the 70’s, that means that the pace is too quick and/or there are too many second chance points for UConn. Either one spells doom for Michigan State.

The biggest advantage the Spartans will have is the crowd. Ironically, they’ll have to play boring basketball to win, which will take the crowd out of the game. So MSU really can’t afford to use their biggest advantage to win this game. I don’t trust Goran Suton and the scrappy, but undersized, Spartan frontcourt. I see UConn dominating in the second half of this game.
Pick: Connecticut 75, Michigan State 64

#3 Villanova Wildcats (30-7, 13-5 Big East) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (32-4, 13-3 ACC)
So now we come to the matchup between the tournament’s hottest team and the team that everyone expected to be here. The pressure will all be on UNC to win this game. The Tar Heels were built this season for a single purpose. And it wasn’t just to make the Final Four. They need to prove as a unit that they aren’t the same team that fell behind 40-12 in last year’s national semifinal against Kansas. They need to prove they aren’t the same team that takes whole games off on defense. Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington need to prove that they can win on the national stage on the final weekend of the basketball season. And Roy Williams needs to justify the hype that was lauded upon this team in October. In other words: advantage Villanova.

The Wildcats are a nice story. No one really expected them to get past both Duke and Pittsburgh to make the Final Four, which will be the team’s first in more than two decades. There’s no pressure on Jay Wright to win now. He’s a young coach who continues to turn down other jobs to stay in Philly. He has plenty of high-ranking recruits coming in for future seasons (most of which are from Maryland). Villanova doesn’t even have to carry the Big East banner since UConn is on the other side of the bracket. If any team remaining can play loose, it’s Nova.

Other than the pressure and expectations, I believe that every other factor favors UNC. Even the coaching factor. If you knew nothing about Wright before the Pittsburgh game, then all you needed to watch was the final 10 seconds to get a read on how lousy an X and O coach he is. Villanova had the ball, up two, with 10 seconds left. All they had to do was inbound the ball and let Pittsburgh foul them. What do they do? Attempt a full court pass! And it wasn’t like the Nova player had a breakaway. He was being guarded pretty closely. It resulted in a turnover AND foul on Villanova which allowed the Panthers to tie the game. Then, with about five seconds to go, Wright draws up a play that doesn’t involve Scottie Reynolds taking the last shot. It was set up for Reynolds to drive, draw the attention and kick it out to the wing. Wright even said so in interviews this week. Fortunately for Wright, Reynolds didn’t listen and pulled a Tyus Edney. How you don’t plan to give your best player the ball in that situation is past me. So even though Wright can recruit, and looks just dashing manning the Villanova sideline, his tactitional skills leave a little to be desired.

Nova does have Reynolds, and he can cancel out Lawson to some degree. In three of the four games that UNC has lost, the opposing team has had a great point guard (Tyrese Rice, Jeff Teague and Greivis Vasquez). Good teams that the Tar Heels have beaten up (Michigan State, Clemson and Duke) haven’t had that solid point guard play. So that’s one key for Villanova. Reynolds must balance out Lawson, even though Lawson has had a better individual tournament than just about anyone else.

The frontcourt for Villanova is a mess, and it’s where they are going to get burned. I thought that Dante Cunningham, Shane Clark and company had turned the corner heading in to the tournament. They haven’t. Even in their win against Pittsburgh, they allowed the Sam Young-DeJuan Blair combination to score a combined 48 points and 17 rebounds. The Cats won, but it wasn’t because of any frontcourt dominance. Now they have to face Hansbrough. And Green. And Deon Thompson. And Ed Davis. The Villanova frontcourt is going to get worn down. The 48 and 17 could be nothing to what they potentially give up in this game. This will be Hansbrough’s last big college game. I expect somewhere around 24 and 12 for him, and maybe something like 60 points all together for UNC inside.

For Villanova to win, Reynolds and the Cats backcourt are going to have to be much better than UNC’s. They may win that individual battle, but they aren’t going to dominate it. Reynolds, despite his last shot against Pitt, has not had a great tournament. He’s only averaging 12.5 per in the NCAA’s. He will have to go off for 25+ for Nova to have a chance. And unless Reggie Redding or either one of the Corey’s step up and join Reynolds, Villanova just won’t be able score enough points to keep up with the Tar Heels.
Pick: North Carolina 81, Villanova 73