2009 NCAA Championship Game

I’m now 45-17 for the tournament. Not bad at all. My locked bracket was somewhat worthless after the Elite 8, but it was better than most (aka, I didn’t take Gonzaga, Duke or Pitt going all that far). It’s been a fun season for NCAA basketball and I apologize once again for my absence in early February. I will hopefully be back soon with some kind of material, but if not, then I guarantee I’ll be back for the NFL season and college basketball season #5 in the fall and winter. Until then, everyone be safe out there this summer, and check in occasionally for some new material. Thanks for reading!



#2 Michigan State Spartans (31-6, 15-3 Big Ten) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4, 13-3 ACC)
National Championship Game
Ford Field – Detroit, MI

Let’s see...I can’t find any Big East teams anywhere. I thought the conference was SOOOOOOOO good. Best of all-time perhaps. Turns out…not so much. May not even be the best this season. On the surface, it’s hard to argue against 17 tournament wins and three #1 seeds. But then you start looking at some of those 17 wins: Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Morehead State, Stephen F. Austin. Also keep in mind that Villanova beat a fellow Big East team. So the 17 wins, while a nice big number, is a little hollow. And as for the #1 seeds? Well, those are done by a committee that was strongly influenced by the media hyping up the Big East all season and also influenced by several lofty regular season records. As we’ve found out, the Big East teams got their lofty records by beating other Big East schools. And as we see by the remaining teams, none of those squads managed to win six, let alone five games in a row against quality competition. A case can still be made for the Big East being the strongest conference this season (although the RPI and current results say otherwise). As far as the best conference of all time? Hardly. Not even close. Let’s put all that talk to bed. Furthermore, Pitt, Louisville and Villanova are all on course to lose the majority of their teams and will all take major steps back next season. Other than UConn, Syracuse and possibly West Virginia or Providence, it could be a very ugly season for the Big Least next year. Enjoy sort of being great this season Big East fans!

Now, while the Big East made their semi-run to the second weekend, the Big Ten has been making the case that they’ve been underrated all season long...potentially proving this prognosticator wrong. Michigan State has carried the league banner all the way to the final game of the year. Purdue made a run to the Sweet 16. Michigan and Wisconsin both scored first round upsets over better ACC schools. Penn State represented by winning the NIT. Other than Ohio State choking one away against Siena, there’s not a lot to be ashamed of in Big Ten country. Could playing defense and scoring 55 points a game actually work? Let’s not get crazy, but it’s possible that the Big Ten schools know something we don’t. I think the conference has done much better than I, or anyone else, believed they could.

MSU has proven that playing in front of roughly 60,000 Spartan fans and playing for an entire state that’s currently in shambles can carry you past a much better team. On paper, they had no business beating Connecticut. I know what the results were, but you can’t convince me that MSU is THAT much better than UConn, or even better at all. Just like on paper, you can’t convince me that the Spartans are better than UNC. Hell, the two teams already played once this year and UNC proved it was 35-points better. But it’s hard to underestimate a team playing for something bigger than itself.

Let’s flash back to December 3rd. The Heels ran the Spartans off the very same Ford Field floor that the two teams will be playing on later tonight. Up 14 at halftime, Carolina went on a real early spurt to make the contest a laugher by the second half’s first TV timeout. Tyler Hansbrough had 25 and 11. Ty Lawson had 17. Wayne Ellington had 17. Deon Thompson had 10 and 7. Ed Davis, who has given UNC solid minutes in the tournament, scored 10 off the bench. The Heels shot 48%, forced Michigan State into 35% shooting, had 20 assists and forced 21 turnovers. There isn’t one stat that favors MSU. It was complete annihilation by a much better UNC team.

Now, some will argue that the Tar Heels didn’t get the Spartans best effort or the Spartans complete team. If they didn’t get the best effort, then shame on the Spartans. Whose fault is that? However, there are two differences in the December 3rd Spartans and the April 6th Spartans. The significant one is Goran Suton, who missed the game due to injury. He has come up big for the Spartans in the tournament. So despite looking like a complete stiff at times, he is an important piece to the puzzle for MSU. Also, Draymond Green was a young freshman back December, and Tom Izzo really didn’t know what to do with him. He played on six minutes in the first game. He’s seen double-digit minutes since early February, and he’s averaged 19 minutes, nine points and five boards in the NCAA. BUT, Raymond Morgan played back in December. Kalin Lucas played. Delvon Roe and Durrell Summers played. Travis Walton, Marquise Gray and Korie Lucious played. It’s not as if the Spartans were missing the majority of their offense or defense. They were missing a player-and-a-half. Is the combination of Suton and an improved Green enough to overcome 35 points? No way.

Take a look at the individual matchups and tell me where MSU has a serious advantage. Or any advantage at all. Suton takes on Hansbrough inside. While Suton can occasionally wander beyond the line and play outside, it’s nothing that Hansbrough hasn’t seen in the ACC. Big Advantage for UNC. Morgan-Roe combination takes on Green and Thompson. Morgan is a great player, but Roe is inconsistent at best. The combination of Green and Thompson will be hard for the undersized Morgan and freshman Roe to stop. At guard, MSU has Walton and Big Ten player of the year Lucas. But UNC counters with Ellington and ACC player of the year Lawson. Lucas may have an advantage over Ellington (if Roy Williams decides to match up that way), but the backcourts combined favor the Heels. Izzo is a better coach than Williams, but there isn’t a lot he can do if he’s overwhelmed at most positions.

I’ll try to make this simple. Let’s start off with that 35-point deficit from the December 3rd game. Let’s assume that UNC doesn’t play as well as they did and Michigan State doesn’t play as poorly as they did. ASSUMING that happens, it’s about an 8-point swing. The addition of Suton is about a 10-point change. The crowd, which will be larger and more boisterous then it was in December is another 7 points or so. Michigan State can eat into a large chunk of that 35-point deficit. But they are still missing anywhere from 8 to 12 additional points…at best. Again, this is assuming that UNC doesn’t repeat their performance level from a few months ago and assuming that bandwagon Tar Heels fans didn’t buy a healthy amount of seats from the departing Villanova and UConn contingent. So most likely, Michigan State is looking at 11 to 14 points that they have to make up in order to win. I don’t see it happening.
Pick: North Carolina 83, Michigan State 71