2009 AFC West Preview: Lightning Strikes On Top, Rest Of Division Has No Thunder

AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers
Projected Record: 11-5

Offense: B+
Defense: B
Coaching: D

What’s new: The Chargers get Shawne Merriman back from injury, but other than that there wasn’t much added in the off-season. A decent draft netted Larry English, who is a linebacker/defensive end hybrid.

What’s good: The big names are still here. LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Merriman, Antonio Cromartie, Quentin Jammer, Shaun Phillips, Luis Castillio, etc… If healthy, this is still one of the best teams in the NFL. They even made sure to re-sign Darren Sproles incase something happens to Tomlinson again.

What’s bad: They are never healthy. Injuries always cost this team a couple of games. Bad coaching and inconsistent quarterback play always cost them a few more. This is a team that should win 12-13 games every year without much problem. They will be lucky to get to the 11 that I predicted for them. The only reason they have had a sustained period of success is because the rest of the AFC West has been garbage.

What to expect: A division title, but they won’t get a first round bye and will have to win a playoff game in a cold-weather city. Which they won’t be able to do. As long as Norv Turner is the head coach, and Phillip Rivers is the quarterback, this team will never win a meaningful game. Despite having loads of talent, the Chargers are lazy, poorly disciplined and terribly coached. And if Tomlinson, Gates and the rest of the offense continue to suffer from nagging injuries, look for a repeat of last year’s 8-8 season.


2. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Record: 8-8

Offense: B-
Defense: C
Coaching: INC

What’s new: A whole heckuva lot. First of all, the Chiefs did the smart thing by taking the one person away from New England that was primarily responsible for all their championships. They didn’t hire Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini or Josh McDaniels. They hired general manager Scott Pioli. Pioli was able to get Matt Cassel, which gives KC their best quarterback since Trent Green. They also got young stud Tyson Jackson in the draft.

What’s good: The offense at B- may be a little high…for now. But look what they have: Cassell, Larry Johnson, Dwayne Bowe and an offensive line that is basically rebuilt and much better. By the end of the season, B- may be a little low. Defensively they have a lot of young talent with Jackson, Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey and Derrick Johnson. They also added Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel to keep the young guys in check. There’s a lot of raw talent here. It will be interesting to see what new coach Todd Haley does with it.

What’s bad: The secondary is still one of the worst in the league. After Bowe, the options for Cassel go downhill sharply. I like most of Pioli’s moves, but I’m not sure why he traded away Tony Gonzalez, who would have given Cassel a security blanket and made this offense legit. And there’s thing about raw talent is you don’t know how it’s going to react in a real game. That could be a good thing, but it could be equally as bad.

What to expect: If the Chiefs went 3-13, it wouldn’t surprise me. If they made the playoffs, it wouldn’t surprise me. I think this could be the dark horse team of the year. The Chiefs must beat Oakland on September 20th. They’re at Baltimore before that game, then have four straight against the NFC East. So if they lose to the Raiders, KC could be staring at 0-6. However, if the Chiefs manage to get to December anywhere near .500, they finish with five very winnable games (Denver, Buffalo, Cincinnati, at Denver and at Cleveland). The Chiefs have a new coach and he has a lot of young talent to play with. They are in an unpredictable division, so if Haley presses the right buttons, this could be a playoff team. We’ll call them 8-8 for now.


3. Oakland Raiders
Projected Record: 6-10

Offense: C
Defense: C+
Coaching: C-

What’s new: Could it be? Stability at Al Davis’ coaching position? Well, not really. But Tom Cable did have some success last season after being handed the reigns. He’ll probably get at least 16 games until he somehow upsets Davis. Other than that, the Silver and Black brought in Jeff Garcia to compete for the QB job. Garcia is still good enough to start in the NFL until he has a lousy season and proves otherwise.

What’s good: Potentially Garcia, if he’s allowed to start. Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush form an interesting three-headed monster at running back. Darrius Heyward-Bey is signed, which actually makes Davis look smart for choosing Heyward-Bey over Michael Crabtree. The secondary with Nnamdi Asomugha, Michael Huff and Chris Johnson could be one the NFL’s 10 best by seasons end.

What’s bad: Davis is still in charge, and he still calls the shots from his office/crypt. Both offensive and defensive lines are bad. The offensive line has improved slightly, but only at the pace of Oakland and the rest of Western California drifting into the Pacific Ocean. Also, if Garcia really is too old, and JaMarcus Russell continues to be a bust, then there’s a serious quarterback issue as well.

What to expect: I said it in the Chiefs preview, and I’ll say it again in the Broncos preview: the AFC West is basically up for grabs. Since the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos all play one another four times, if one of those teams manages to win all four of those games, then they have a chance to make some noise in the division. Norv Turner is still in charge in San Diego, so it’s not as if the Chargers have monopolized the division crown. The Raiders defense, at least the back seven, is good enough to keep them in ballgames. They have seven to eight very winnable games on their schedule, and they should be able to get five or six of them.


4. Denver Broncos
Projected Record: 3-13

Offense: C
Defense: D-
Coaching: INC

What’s new: The Broncos got rid of Mike Shanahan…but couldn’t find a suitable replacement. So they got stuck with Josh McDaniels as head coach. Lesson #1 as an owner or general manager: Don’t fire your head coach unless you are 95% positive you can find someone as good or better than he is. In this case, replacing Shanahan is impossible, and the Broncos didn’t even come close. Also, Kyle Orton is now the quarterback instead of Jay Cutler. Knowshon Moreno was a decent addition through the draft.

What’s good: This will be short. Brandon Marshall is still here. He’s very unhappy, but he’s still here. The offensive line isn’t all that bad. Brian Dawkins was also a good pickup for the secondary. He still has a couple of good seasons left in him and I think the Eagles will rue getting rid of him.

What’s bad: I’ll try to keep it short. The Orton for Cutler swap did not help the Broncos this season. Sure it gave them a whole lot of draft picks, but the QB position will take a major hit in the process. Which means the receiving tandem of Marshall and Eddie Royal, one of the few team strengths, may be wasted on this team. The Corell Buckhalter-Moreno backfield has potential, but Buckhalter is always hurt, and as of now, Moreno is unproven. Defensively, things are a mess. It was one of the worst in the league last season, and figures to be among the bottom of defensive units again.

What to expect: A lot of people are saying that Denver will still manage to win 6 or 7 games. In the AFC West, anything is possible. Other than San Diego at the top, the rest of the division is up for grabs. However, after tanking last season and having a mini-fire sale this spring, I don’t see how Denver got better. They got rid of a Pro Bowl quarterback (as whiny as he might have been) and didn’t address any of their defensive problems aside from signing Dawkins. Furthermore, the hiring of McDaniels will prove to be a big mistake. Just because he worked for Bill Belichick doesn’t make him Bill Belichick. I would have thought the disasters of Eric Mangini, Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis would have proven that by now. McDaniels is the reason Cutler is gone, the reason Marshall wants to leave and the reason that the rest of the team almost led a revolt against upper management. Not a good start and his team hasn’t even struggled on the field yet. Which in 2009, they most certainly will. This may be the team with the first pick in the 2010 draft.