Redskins at Lions: When It Rains, It Pours

Washington Redskins (1-1) vs. Detroit Lions (0-2)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
The fans are booing, the media is panicking and the sky is falling. And the Redskins won. Imagine what it would be like if they’d lost.

I think it’s fair to say that we were all expecting more from the Skins in their game last weekend. A 9-7 win over the lowly Rams is hardly convincing and hardly reassuring. It’s become painfully obvious that there are issues with play-calling on both sides of the ball. The decision making and execution has to get much, much better inside the redzone or this team will continue to fail. The Redskins must make a concerted effort to pressure the quarterback, or better teams will take advantage of it. The team must put their play-makers in a position to do so, or it will quickly become a wasted year.

However, to say that the season is already over is a bit too much. I think the rumors of the Redskins 2009-10 demise are a bit premature. If you looked around the NFL last week, there were several curious results and there are several teams in a much deeper hole than Washington. Green Bay was dominated at home by an inferior Cincinnati team. Pittsburgh’s defense looked mortal without Troy Polamalu, a problem that will probably hang with the team until he returns. Tom Brady’s knee is certainly not as healthy as the Patriots are letting us know, and the future of that team and its quarterback is up in the air. The Titans and Panthers are 0-2, but you don’t see the media burying either of those teams, despite playing in two tough divisions. But according to everyone else, the league’s biggest problem spot is here in the District.

Suddenly, the Detroit Lions have become the popular pick this weekend to beat the Redskins. These are the same Detroit Lions that were 0-16 last season. The same Lions that are on a 19-game losing streak. The same Lions that have already been outscored by 32 points in only two games (which is bad enough to be 30th in the league in point differential). The same Lions that are starting a rookie quarterback with a rookie head coach in charge. The same Lions that have gone through general managers with a higher frequency than Dan Snyder has gone through head coaches. The same Lions that possess maybe two players that the rest of the league would want on their team. These are the Lions that are being touted on ESPN and other networks as almost a sure thing to upset the Redskins this week.

The Lions do have several things going for them. First, as long as they keep losing, there is the ever growing pressure on their opponents to not be the team that allows Detroit to snap their streak. No team wants to be in the background of a SportsCenter highlite as the Lions are celebrating on the field. The pressure was on Minnesota last week, and it took them two quarters of football to overcome it. Detroit has no pressure. If they lose, so what? They’ve already gone 0-16. It can’t get any worse. What’s another loss…or two…or five?

Second, the Lions have to be looking at last week’s film from the Skins and thinking “This is our week…these guys are ripe for the taking.” They also have to be glancing at their schedule and they probably see no winnable games until they host the Rams on November 1st. Even though I think some of the so-called experts have gone out of control with their “Lions will win this week” predictions, I will admit that of the four games leading up to their meeting with St. Louis, this game provides the Lions their best chance to snap their streak before then. So a little desperation mixed with a little confidence can be a dangerous combination.

Finally, the Lions now employ Jon Jansen. Jansen spent the last decade here in Washington. If anyone knows the Redskins, and the strengths and weaknesses of all the players, it’s Jansen. I’m sure his time here will help provide Detroit with a decent blueprint in how to beat the Redskins.

Before you start resembling Chicken Little and go running for your umbrella, remember that these are still the Lions. There is a reason they haven’t won since mid-December of 2007. They aren’t good. They are terrible. They may be the worst team assembled since the Buccaneers of the mid-70’s. Sure the Redskins have their problems. Sure there are now question marks on the offensive line with the loss of Randy Thomas. Sure Clinton Portis’ ankle injuries are disconcerting considering it’s only Week 3. But the Lions issues and problems far exceed those of the Redskins. They have NO offensive line. Their rookie quarterback has resembled Alex Smith much more than Matt Ryan in his first two games. The Lions defense is awful against both the pass and the run. And most importantly for the Redskins, the Lions defense finished dead last in redzone efficiency last season. For an offense that has had major trouble punching the ball into the endzone, that’s a welcomed sight.

Ultimately, this game is going to come down the Redskins ability to run the ball and finish drives inside the redzone. The Skins haven’t gone three and out a whole lot this year. They have no problems picking up a few first downs, changing field position and moving the ball. They just can’t get out of their own way inside the opponent's 20. A lot of that has to do with the play-calling. Some of that is just poor execution, especially with the running game. Jim Zorn must change the strategy in the redzone. They were in there four times against the Rams, and they ran each time on first down. Of the 16 plays run in the redzone, nine were runs, four were passes and three were field goals. One of those passes was a bizarre half-back pass. The five-yard line is not the place to get cute. Again, Detroit is a team that has a terrible redzone defense. I think the Redskins will click soon, and this defense may be the catalyst.

As with the last two weeks, putting pressure on the quarterback is the defensive key. Young Matthew Stafford has looked ordinary at best. But they shouldn’t let him have time to find Calvin Johnson. If they do, I’m sure he’ll be able to hit him a few times. The earlier he gets hit, the more likely he’ll be to make mistakes for the rest of the game.

There is always an uneasy feeling going into a game like this if you are a Redskins fan. This is a team that routinely makes easy games hard. They haven’t won a game by more than eight points since Zorn started here. The job security questions for Zorn have already been raised. Most of it is the media feeding itself and convincing themselves that he’s is actually on thin ice. They already have their columns written if the Skins somehow drop this one. They’ll take their shots at the Redskins and Snyder, and they’ll try to run Zorn out of town. They are prepared for the sky to fall. Does Zorn have an umbrella?

NFL Week 3: Oh Brother

After a pedestrian Week 2, I’m now 18-12 on the season overall, and an ugly and even 15-15 against the spread. It’s rare that I do worse in Week 2 than I do in Week 1, but I have a feeling this is going to be a weird season.

SUNDAY

Tennessee Titans (0-2) vs. New York Jets (2-0)(-3)
1:00 pm Giants Stadium
The Jets are getting pretty big for their britches. I’m still not buying this 2-0 start, nor would I be really worried about Tennessee’s 0-2 start. Unless they go 0-3.
Pick: Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) vs. Houston Texans (1-1)(-3.5)
1:00 pm Reliant Stadium
Every season, there is one team that I can never predict. I think the Texans are going to be that team this season. On paper, they should win this one. They get a Jaguars team that just got embarrassed at home by Arizona, a team that almost never wins anywhere near the East Coast. Furthermore, the Texans have this game in Houston and they are coming off an impressive and important win. However on paper, they should have beaten the Jets two weeks ago and probably should have lost last week. Oh Gary Kubiak, don’t do this to me all year.
Pick: Texans

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)(-9)
1:00 pm Lincoln Financial Field
Look, I know the Chiefs aren’t going to be good this season. My 8-8 prediction may have been WAY off. But there is no reason the Eagles should be favored by more than three or four against anyone without Donovan McNabb and potentially without Brian Westbrook.
Pick: Eagles, Chiefs cover

Cleveland Browns (0-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (2-0)(-13.5)
1:00 pm M&T Bank Stadium
So I wonder if Eric Mangini still thinks Brady Quinn should start over Derek Anderson. 18-31 for 161 yards and a pick is a terrible day against any defense. Against the Broncos defense, that’s an absolute joke.
Pick: Ravens, Browns cover

New York Giants (2-0)(-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)
1:00 pm Raymond James Stadium
So FOX has a new sitcom starring Michael Strahan. I think it’s called “Brothers”. It might as well be called “Canceled”. Is that really the best they could come up with? Really? This passes as entertainment? I don’t know what’s more shocking…that someone had an idea to use Ol’ Gaptooth in a sitcom, or that several people green-lighted the idea and actually allowed it on air. What does the director think of this monstrosity? What about his co-stars (and I use the term “star” very loosely here)? I can only imagine how that conversation went:

Studio Exec: We think you’d be perfect for our new sitcom.
Random Actor: Really? That’s great! What’s it about?
Studio Exec: About a football player who falls from grace and is forced to move back in with his parents.
Random Actor: Wow, that sounds interesting. Where do I sign!?!
Studio Exec: Right here. Thanks for coming in.
Random Actor: Thanks for having me. By the way, who is starring in this show?
Studio Exec: We got a great lead for this sitcom. You may have heard of him. His name is Michael Strahan.
Random Actor: Huh…what? Wait a minute, can I have that contract back…

The over/under on the amount of episodes has got to be 3.5. And that might be really generous. I can’t imagine anyone would want to watch this crap on a Friday night.
Pick: Giants

Green Bay Packers (1-1)(-6.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-2)
1:00 pm Edward Jones Dome
Boy the Packers got a gift schedule. Start with the Bears at home, followed by the Bengals at home, then the miserable Rams. Except they forgot to show up for their game against Cincinnati.
Pick: Packers

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-0)(-7)
1:00 pm Metrodome
Reason #1759 why Brett Favre should quit: He won’t be the best quarterback in this game…and the other quarterback is Shaun Hill.
Pick: Vikings

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) vs. New England Patriots (1-1)(-4)
1:00 pm Gillette Stadium
Well, this game could tell us a few things. Are the Falcons for real and not a one year fluke? More importantly, is Tom Brady still hurt and are the Patriots in trouble this season? Besides the last three minutes of the Buffalo game, the Pats offense has looked even worse than last season.
Pick: Patriots

Chicago Bears (1-1)(-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
4:05 pm Qwest Field
Until further notice, I won’t be picking Seattle. And that further notice entails Seneca Wallace not sniffing the starting quarterback role.
Pick: Bears

New Orleans Saints (2-0)(-6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-1)
4:05 pm Ralph Wilson Stadium
This game will take four hours because neither defense will be able to stop the other team. It appears that this would be an easy pick for the Saints, but I think the Bills will at least be able to keep it close. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be heartbreaking loss number two for the Bills.
Pick: Saints

Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-1)(-6)
4:15 pm Qualcomm Stadium
The Dolphins fought hard and lost a tough one to Indy. They are somehow making the Wildcat work, despite it failing for every other team. I know Indy’s defense isn’t the best, but the Dolphins should keep that formation in the playbook for now. Meanwhile, the Chargers lost the Norv Turner way: conservative. Down 28-23 inside the Ravens 20, Norv decided to kick the field goal. Then down 31-26 with less than two minutes left, Norv decided to run the ball up the middle on 4th and two. This was during a game that Phillip Rivers had well over 400 yards throwing the ball. Yeah, that makes tons of sense.
Pick: Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)(-3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
4:15 pm Paul Brown Stadium
The Steelers are only 3.5 point favorites in this one? That’s a gift from Vegas.
Pick: Steelers

Denver Broncos (2-0)(-1.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-1)
4:15 pm Oakland Coliseum
Either the Raiders go 2-1 or the Broncos somehow go 3-0. I never thought I’d be writing that in Week 3. I see the Raiders running game having a field day with the Denver defense.
Pick: Raiders

Indianapolis Colts (2-0) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-1)(-3)
8:20 pm University of Phoenix Stadium
This is easily the most interesting game of the week. The Colts have proven that their defense isn’t good enough to stop a decent offense this season, but their offense is still among the league’s best (even without Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison). Meanwhile, the Cardinals laid an egg against San Francisco then romped over an uninterested Jacksonville team. So the jury is still out on them. I’ll take a chance with the road team.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

Carolina Panthers (0-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-1)(-9)
8:30 pm Cowboys Stadium
It took three years, but finally someone called out Tony “Oh-for-every big game” Romo. Shockingly, it was Tony Dorsett. Dorsett’s words have stuck in the media, and people are slowly starting to understand that despite the impressive stats, Romo is a choke artist. He has never won a big December game. He has certainly never won a game in January. In fact, the reason the Cowboys lose those games is usually because of Romo. Not Terrell Owens. Not the incompetent Wade Phillips. Romo is the reason. Romo couldn’t even win the Cowboys home opener in that embarrassment of a stadium (the look on Jerry Jones’ surgically altered face was priceless). Romo now gets to face Jake Delhomme, who may be the only quarterback more inaccurate than he is. I’m betting on a minimum of five combined interceptions.
Pick: Cowboys, Panthers cover

Rams at Redskins: Blitz Fail

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Ok, you are Greg Blache. Your owner signs Albert Haynesworth to a monster contract. Your GM and coach decide to draft Brian Orakpo. You have existing playmakers like London Fletcher, Andre Carter and Laron Landry on the team. What should your game plan be coming into the 2009 season?

Well, apparently the answer was to only blitz one of the most immobile quarterbacks in the NFL, a quarterback with no reliable targets, a grand total of four times. I would be willing to bet that any of the other 31 defensive coordinators in the league, if they suddenly inherited the Redskins roster and had to open against the Giants, would make it a point to get pressure on Eli Manning however possible. Rushing three or four guys on third-and-longs isn’t exactly how you do that.

Manning has proven over and over that he simply can’t handle pressure up the middle. Lo and behold! The Redskins signed Haynesworth for a ton of scratch to take up two blockers in the middle of the line so someone, maybe Orakpo or Fletcher, can come behind him and blitz the quarterback without being touched. Or maybe with Haynesworth occupying the middle, and all the offensive line assignments forced to shift, Carter would be 1-on-1 with an offensive tackle. That would open a window for an outside linebacker or corner to come off the edge with no blockers to take him. Whatever the case may be, Manning has proven that he can’t handle pressure, but can pick your defense apart if he is given all day in the pocket. No, he won’t be able to burn you deep if you drop seven or eight guys back. But he’ll nickel and dime you to death on six to seven minute drives. That’s exactly what Manning did last Sunday.

The worst thing is that the four times the Redskins blitzed (and my definition of blitz means bring more people defensively than the opposition has on the offensive line…so a five-man rush hardly qualifies as a blitz), four bad things happened for the Giants. The interception and fumble were both caused by blitzes. The other two blitzes forced two incompletions. So if you were a defensive coordinator, and you know the quarterback you are playing can’t handle the blitz, and the blitzes you have sent at him have worked, then why in the world would you only blitz him four times out of 30 pass plays? Why would you blitz 13% of the time when the league average is somewhere close to 33%?

I don’t want to hear that Haynesworth played poorly, which is the initial reaction. He was the one who stuffed Brandon Jacobs during a fourth and 1 at the Redskins five. No, he didn’t sack Manning. But he did exactly what he was brought here to do. Occupy two blockers a play so someone can blitz behind him. Except that the blitz never came. Haynesworth can’t control the play-calling. Go back and watch Haynesworth, and you’ll see that time and again he opened up potential blitzing lanes that the Redskins never took advantage of.

I know that DeAngelo Hall didn’t have a great game. The missed tackles weren’t Blache’s fault. The secondary as a whole missed way too many tackles. However, when you rush three or four guys and you can’t get to the quarterback, then the secondary more than often is going to get burned for 10-15 yard gains. You can only cover NFL receivers so long before one of them gets open.

I also know that it wasn’t Blache’s fault that Jason Campbell had a lousy game. It wasn’t Blache’s fault that the Redskins offense didn’t exploit the holes in the Giants secondary. It wasn’t Blache’s fault that the Redskins couldn’t score a touchdown when they got the ball at the Giants’ 12-yard line. There were other issues as well. But the one that contributed the most to the opening week loss was Blache’s inability to take any chances defensively. He went in with the mentality that he would rather lose on 10-15 yard plays than make the highlite reels by being on the wrong end of a 50-yard bomb. That mentality cost the Redskins, but because the Skins were beaten “boringly”, you won’t see any complaints against Blache or the way he called the game.

For the past few years, the Redskins have been really passive on defense. It started with Gregg Williams, and he passed that strategy along to Blache. But most of those Redskins teams weren’t built to blitz a whole lot. The secondary wasn’t good enough to bail out a failed blitz, so the reward was definitely not worth the risk. However, this Redskins team is good enough and is built to put pressure on the quarterback. This is a defense that needs to take chances. This isn’t a defense that has to rely on coverage sacks or lucky bounces to get off the field. This is a defense that was built with the sole purpose of putting more pressure on the quarterback. Dan Snyder has said that. Jim Zorn has said that. Even Blache himself has said that. Now Blache has to put his money where his mouth is and allow his defense to do their job.

The Redskins were done no favors by having to open in the Meadowlands two years in row. However, the schedule makers made up for it by putting the next five game slate together: St. Louis, at Detroit, Tampa Bay, at Carolina and Kansas City. Carolina looked to be difficult at the beginning of the season, but who knows what Jake Delhomme’s mental state will be like by Week 5. All those games, at least for the time being, appear to be winnable.

Of course there’s winnable, and then there’s winnable for the Redskins. I said the same thing last season about games against St. Louis, Cincinnati and San Francisco. Those losses cost the Redskins a playoff spot. It’s easy to look at all those games and see a way the Skins can lose. They lost at home to the Rams last season. God knows the Lions are due, and with each loss, there is actually more pressure on the team the Lions are facing to not be the team that allows Detroit to snap their losing streak. The Bucs can still play defense well. So can the Panthers. The Chiefs could be feisty if Matt Cassel returns at full strength. In other words, the next five games are winnable, but the Skins will most likely find a way to lose at least one or two of those contests.

The Rams are an offense similar to the Giants, just with a lesser offensive line. They have a back that can pound you and go outside (Stephen Jackson). They have a bunch of decent, but non-descript receivers. Most importantly, they have a quarterback who has made the Pro Bowl, has had postseason success, but can’t handle a blitz up the middle. Marc Bulger has taken so many hits and has dealt with a variety of injuries over the last few seasons. With the offensive line going through a rebuilding phase, he’s definitely gun-shy. What better way to take advantage of that situation then with a couple of blitzes up the gut? The earlier in the game, the better.

As for the offense, whose performance was even more disheartening than the defense, this should be the unit to get healthy against. The Skins faced four of the best defenses in the league during the preseason and the Giants were another top unit last week. The Rams have one of the worst. Seattle managed to score 28 points against them without a running game. I would assume the Redskins should do something similar.

I wouldn’t count on the Redskins losing this one. Yes they lost last year to St. Louis. However, there were about two or three fluky plays that allowed the Rams to win it. I wouldn’t count on an offensive lineman fumbling a tipped pass and allowing the Rams defense to score on the play for a second year in a row. Unlike other teams they usually overlook, the Redskins know that the Rams can beat them if they play lousy. The Skins are the better team, and hopefully their coordinators will allow them to play like it.

NFL Week 2: Delhomme's Moonshot

Week 1 saw me go a respectable 10-5 overall and a decent 8-7 against the spread. As far as Week 1’s go, that was one of my best. So let’s roll on with Week 2.

SUNDAY

Oakland Raiders (0-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1)(-3)
1:00 pm Arrowhead Stadium
Both of these teams impressed me enough this weekend to make me think the AFC West is tougher than I was led to believe. This is a crucial game for Kansas City. After this one, they play four in a row against the NFC East. A loss here could leave them staring at an 0-6 start.
Pick: Chiefs

Houston Texans (0-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-1)(-6.5)
1:00 pm LP Field
The Texans may be that preseason darkhorse team that can’t possibly live up to expectations. There is one every season. I thought that when I picked them to go 9-7 and finish 3rd in the division, that would be a shock. However, several publications had them doing even better. Some had them winning the South. If they lose to a division rival and go to 0-2, I don’t think that will be possible.
Pick: Titans

New England Patriots (1-0)(-3.5) vs. New York Jets (1-0)
1:00 pm Giants Stadium
Something tells me that Bill Belichick will be able to handle a rookie quarterback. He’s probably got lots of illegal film of Mark Sanchez already.
Pick: Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-0)(-9)
1:00 pm Lambeau Field
The Bengals were one of two teams to get kicked in the crotch over the weekend. I think it will take them weeks to recover from their loss to Denver. What was lost in the miracle finish was the performance of Carson Palmer. Against one of the league’s worst defenses, Palmer and the offense could only manage seven points. As bad as the Brandon Stokley touchdown was, Palmer’s performance was an even worse omen.
Pick: Packers

Minnesota Vikings (1-0)(-9.5) vs. Detroit Lions (0-1)
1:00 pm Ford Field
Here’s hoping the Lions can somehow pull off the upset so there’s no chance the Redskins can be the team to snap the losing streak next week.
Pick: Vikings

New Orleans Saints (1-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
1:00 pm Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas has WAYYYYYYYYY too much confidence in Kevin Kolb and WAYYYYYYY too much confidence in the Eagles defense stopping Drew Brees. Jake Delhomme is one thing fellas, Brees is another.
Pick: Saints

Carolina Panthers (0-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-0)(-6.5)
1:00 pm Georgia Dome
Speaking of Delhomme, he is damaged goods until proven wrong. His case is similar to Brad Lidge back in 2005. Previous to 2005, Lidge had been a reliable closer. But it took Lidge three seasons to recover from the Albert Pujols moonshot he gave up in the NLCS. Delhomme seems to be going through the same process. After his 5-interception mulligan against Arizona in the playoffs, who knows when Delhomme will once again be ready to play to his previous high standards.
Pick: Falcons, Panthers cover

Arizona Cardinals (0-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)(-3.5)
1:00 pm Alltel Stadium
Normally I wouldn’t touch the Cardinals for a 1pm East Coast game. But they broke that curse last season, so all bets are off.
Pick: Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-0)(-1.5)
4:05 pm Candlestick Park
What is more surprising: that both of these teams are 1-0, or that this is a huge early season game for the NFC West?
Pick: Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-1)(-4.5)
4:05 pm Ralph Wilson Stadium
How many heartbreaking losses is it going to take until people realized how horrible a coach Dick Jauron is? I think he’s up to at least four or five stomach-punchers during his time in Buffalo. I see at least two or three more coming this season.
Pick: Bills

Cleveland Browns (0-1) vs. Denver Broncos (1-0)(-3)
4:15 pm Mile High Stadium
Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos are about to go 2-0. Yes, that’s the same Broncos team I said would go 3-13 and probably be the worst team in the NFL this season. Amazing what having Cincinnati and Cleveland at the beginning of the schedule can do for your record.
Pick: Broncos

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-0)(-3)
4:15 pm Qualcomm Stadium
Something tells me that the 38-point output from Baltimore’s offense had more to do with Kansas City’s defense than anything the Ravens did. Let’s give the nod to the team that doesn’t have to travel 3,000 miles to play this one.
Pick: Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)(-2) vs. Chicago Bears (0-1)
4:15 pm Soldier Field
The Steelers defense without Troy Polamalu still has 10 other Pro Bowl-caliber players. The Bears defense without Brian Urlacher is average at best.
Pick: Steelers

New York Giants (1-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-0)(-3)
8:15 pm Cowboys Stadium
Here’s hoping that joke of a scoreboard collapses during the game.
Pick: Giants

MONDAY

Indianapolis Colts (1-0)(-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1)
8:30 pm Land Shark Stadium
Miami’s long fall back to Earth continues. I think the people in the NFL offices that gave Miami five primetime games should start looking for new jobs.
Pick: Colts

Redskins at Giants: Zorn Again, Again

Washington Redskins at New York Giants
4:15 pm Giants Stadium
Year two of the Jim Zorn era begins for the Washington Redskins. Like most seasons under the Dan Snyder regime, it begins with plenty of change and question marks, but with heightened expectations. There are many around the nation saying that this team will only win four or five games. Most of those people look at the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys and automatically put the Redskins in last. 4-12 or 5-11 won’t happen. It just won’t. There is too much talent on both sides of the ball. Clinton Portis, Chris Cooley, Santana Moss, Albert Haynesworth, London Fletcher, Brian Orakpo, Laron Landry, etc… These players aren’t garbage. These are players that any team would want. Look at the other teams that should win only four to five games and you won’t see talent like that.

However, to assume that the Redskins are destined for a 12-4 season is also foolish. The offensive line is a huge question mark. The starters are good, but if anyone gets hurt, there are few if any capable backups. Orakpo and Rocky McIntosh look good on paper, but can the two help Fletcher at linebacker on the field? Who will step up as the team’s second wide receiver? And of course, there is the question at quarterback.

Jason Campbell is back, despite the efforts of many in the front office, as the starter. This really isn’t the biggest question mark on the team, but it is the one that’s naturally focused on. I personally think that in his second season in the same system (the first time that’s ever happened in his career), and with a contract year coming up, we’ll see big things from Campbell. But that’s assuming that he’s allowed to have a good season. I’m not talking about bad playing calling from Zorn. I’m not talking about meddling from the front office. I’m talking about the five guys who line up in front of him.

The big question remains the offensive line. When they were healthy, the Redskins went 6-2 last year. After Chris Samuels and Randy Thomas got hurt against the Steelers, they went 2-6. Most of what happened in the second half of last season had very little to do with Campbell. There were plenty of times last season that Campbell lined up with only two of his five starting offensive linemen on the field. If this line is healthy, they are old, but still talented enough to give Campbell time, Portis running room, and the offense a fighting chance. If they are injured, then the Redskins are in big trouble. But not in any more trouble that any other team would injuries would have.

Which brings me to my second question mark about this team: depth. The Redskins have very little of it on the line or just about anywhere else. The defensive line is overhauled (more on that in a second) and deep and the secondary is loaded. But depth is a serious problem at every other position. If the Redskins somehow struggle to a 5-11 season, it will be because of injuries and lack of depth. Not because of Campbell’s performance.

Those are the two big question marks I have. Let’s focus on the positives now. Clinton Portis still has one more great season left in him. Cooley is now among elite tight ends. The additions of Haynesworth and Orakpo completely change the complexion of what the defense can do. If Greg Blache actually blitzes this season, the Skins should easily be in the top tier of NFL defenses. He has no excuses not to. He has a monster in Orakpo, a space-eater in Haynesworth, and a bunch of other solid players who will find themselves in one-on-one situations because of the previously mentioned. Fletcher will have another 100+ tackle season. The secondary, assuming Carlos Rogers has learned to catch a football in the offseason, can hold their own. Hunter Smith helps with the punting game. The Redskins season comes down to the offensive line. If they hold, this is a ten win team. If they struggle, the Skins will probably win seven.

There are so many nuances that I would have loved to talk about this week, but thanks to my computer dying and just getting it back less than 24 hours before game time, I’ll have to spread them out through the month of September. Instead, I’ll just focus on the game at hand.

The NFL, in their infinite wisdom, scheduled the Redskins for a season opener in the lovely Jersey swamps for the second season in a row. This should not have been allowed to happen. First of all, I’ve long said that there should be no division games Week 1. You can't have some teams playing crucial division matchups while other teams play against the other conference in the first week of the year. And to force the Redskins to open up in the division and on the road two years in a row boarders on cruelty and favoritism towards New York. Not that there has been anything like that in recent years (like giving the Giants nine home games…just doesn’t happen).

While the Giants defense gets Osi Umenyiora back after an ACL injury ended his season early in 2008, they’ve basically lost their entire receiving corps and Derrick Ward on the offensive side. Eli Manning has never been the most accurate quarterback, and that was when he was throwing to Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey. Now he has such standouts as Hakeem Nicks, Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith (not that Steve Smith) to throw to. I can’t imagine he will be any better.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the vaunted Giants running game without Ward as a change of pace back. Ahmed Bradshaw, despite being ballyhooed in the media, is nothing more than a short yardage and goal line back. Brandon Jacobs is a great runner, but has never really had to carry the load himself. I’m not so sure he can carry it for an entire season.

However, despite the possible problems, the Giants are strong on both the offensive and defensive line. In this league, that’s important. That’s why I see them winning the NFC East and probably making the Super Bowl. But in the NFC East, anything can happen because of the strength of all four teams. However, the Giants have the best combined offensive and defensive line, so that puts them in the driver seat at this point.

The 2009 Redskins defense was built to create more pass rush, but ironically, was probably built to stop the run even more. The Giants are a run first team. If the Skins have more luck stopping Jacobs this season than they did last year, they can win this game. If I’m Tom Coughlin, other than wondering how I still have a NFL job, I’m worried about having to throw Manning to the wolves with untested receivers in fourth quarters of ballgames. The Redskins have to put eight in the box, stop Jacobs, and take their chances with Manning and the unproven wideouts.

Offensively, there’s a good chance that Campbell looks terrible and all the critics that have been in hiding since the preseason game against New England come back to the forefront. If he stinks it up tomorrow, I wouldn’t be shocked or concerned. The Giants defense is good. More than that, they are great. If Campbell has a 13-28, 170 yards, INT stat line, don’t be worried. He wouldn’t be the first quarterback to do that against the Giants. Portis must get going early, and Campbell needs to complete some short passes for his confidence. Hopefully the Redskins offense can take advantage of some Manning mistakes and score with a short field. If the defense can’t force turnovers, this will be a close and low-scoring game. If they do, then forget that 6.5 line in favor of the Giants.

The best news for the Skins is that they get this game out of the way early in the season. They don’t have to worry about going to Meadowlands late in the year with something on the line. They get it out of the way and then get to move on to three teams that will probably finish last in their divisions (Rams, Lions, Bucs). A win here is an absolute steal, and may signify bigger things to come.

Season Predictions & Week 1 Picks

Got through 30 of the 32 previews, and I did most of them without a computer. The two teams that are missing will be discussed in depth later in the week (assuming that my fixed computer ever arrives). However, I think it’s time to put the season predictions down on paper (or internet) and give you the week 1 picks quickly. Hopefully with a working laptop, I can go into greater detail next week.

NFC
New York Giants (12-4)
Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
Carolina Panthers (10-6)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
New Orleans Saints (9-7)

Round 1
Saints over Panthers
Vikings over Bears

Divisional Round
Giants over Saints
Vikings over Cardinals

NFC Championship
Giants over Vikings


AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
New England Patriots (11-5)
San Diego Chargers (11-5)
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Buffalo Bills (9-7)

Round 1
Patriots over Bills
Chargers over Titans

Divisional Round
Steelers over Chargers
Colts over Patriots

AFC Championship
Colts over Steelers

SUPER BOWL XLIV
Colts 27, Giants 19


WEEK 1 Picks
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
Pick: Steelers

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Pick: Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)
Pick: Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Panthers

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
Pick: Bengals

Minnesota Vikings (-4) at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Vikings

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Pick: Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-8)
Pick: Colts, Jaguars cover

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-13)
Pick: Saints

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Cowboys

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
Pick: Cardinals

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)
Pick: Seahawks, Rams cover

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4)
Pick: Bears

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-10.5)
Pick: Patriots, Bills cover

San Diego Chargers (-9.5) at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Chargers, Raiders cover