Maryland Basketball: Malcolm In The Middle

Maryland Terrapins (20-7, 10-3 ACC) vs.
Virginia Tech Hokies (21-6, 8-5 ACC)
Cassell Coliseum – Blacksburg, VA

As the season heads down the backstretch of February and into March, there are several obvious points that need to be made about the Maryland Terrapins. No, I’m not going to sit here and opine on how good Greivis Vasquez is (even though he is 2nd in the ACC in scoring and 1st in assists and leads all guards in shooting percentage), since that would be too obvious. In no particular order:

1. The Maryland Terrapins should be ranked, regardless of what happens in this game. There is no way a sane college basketball fan can make the argument that Maryland isn’t one of the best 25 teams in the country. Everyone can point to the William & Mary loss, but half of the Top 25 own losses that are far worse than that one. What else is the problem? Quality wins out of the conference? Ok, fair enough I guess. But don’t wins against Clemson, Georgia Tech and two against Florida State begin to make up for that? Doesn’t a 10-3 conference record prove something? Here’s a history note, and I looked this one up to make sure: no 10-3 ACC team has EVER been unranked in the AP poll. How ridiculous are the polls? Miami has been ranked more recently than Maryland. Are the Terps a Top 15 team? Not yet. A Top 25 team? Certainly.

2. No team in the country, with the possible of exception of Kansas, is going to be happy to see Maryland in their bracket. Especially the higher seeds that are going to find Maryland in their sub-regional. Kansas is really the only team that could look at Maryland’s talent, experience and recent hot-streak and shrug their shoulders. Every other team is going to be at least slightly concerned about playing a team with a senior backcourt, a somewhat deep rotation and one of the greatest coaches in the game.

3. This is where I start to get critical a little. Maryland is going to lose somewhere in the NCAA Tournament. I have no grand delusion that this team can run the table. They are going to lose to a physical team that manages to muscle Vasquez out of the middle of the court and dominates Jordan Williams with two big forwards. Georgia Tech tried this approach, and it nearly worked. If Paul Hewitt wasn’t their coach and if Cliff Tucker didn’t happen to make one of the biggest shots in the last few years, the Jackets would have won (and probably handedly). Some of the possible higher seeds that really concern me (other than the obvious pair of Kansas and Kentucky) and Maryland could run into early: Michigan State, Pittsburgh and (gag me) Georgetown. Anyone really want to see Greg Monroe in a single-elimination game?

4. This kind of follows up with point #3. The solid team rebounding that took place earlier in the season has disappeared. Jordan Williams is doing his best, but he’s a freshman, he’s starting to wear down, and he’s getting little help from Dino Gregory and Landon Milbourne. Williams has done a good job shutting down opponents’ top rebounders, but Maryland has struggled to keep the secondary rebounders off the glass. The Terps effort on the boards against Georgia Tech and Clemson were worse that Canada’s effort at lighting their Olympic cauldron.

5. Milbourne is going to be the key to the postseason…either for good or for bad. Here’s what Milbourne has done in some of the tougher conference games this season:

FSU: 6-11, 13 pts, 7 rebs, 2 blks
@Wake: 5-15, 11 pts, 6 rebs
@Clemson: 1-8, 3 pts, 5 rebs, 2 blks
@FSU: 7-13, 18 pts, 6 rebs, 3 blks
@Duke: 1-6, 2 pts, 3 rebs, 2 blks
GTech: 2-11, 5 pts, 7 rebs, 2 blks
Clemson: 2-5, 8 pts, 1 rebs, 3 blks

As you can see, Milbourne has been all over the map the past six weeks, but he’s trending downward. Other than the two games against FSU, he hasn’t shown up when the team needed him most. You can see that his two worst outings came in losses. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. If it wasn’t for Williams, Tucker and Sean Mosley, Maryland would have lost their last two games. Maryland proved against Clemson that Vasquez can have an off-night shooting and still find a way to win. As good as Vasquez is, he needs help for Maryland to win consistently. Milbourne is the versatile threat that perfectly complements Vasquez. He has to be a senior leader and has to step up. Eight points and one board won’t cut it.

That’s how I see it right now. The team’s confidence levels are peaking. Vasquez is delivering a consistent performance every night. Even when he struggles to score (as he did against Clemson) he manages to dish out 13 assists. That’s an absurdly high amount for one game. I’ve seen plenty of college games where teams haven’t had 13 assists as a whole. Like I said above, it’s encouraging to see the rest of the team come to rescue when Vasquez isn’t scoring. It took them a half, but that’s why they play 40 minutes. There are a lot of good vibes around this team with a just a couple of ominous signs. I like the way they played in February, and they’ll get far in both the ACC and NCAA Tournament if they play the same way in March.

To Virginia Tech. The Hokies come in with at 21-6 overall, but looks can be deceiving. As the bubble watchers will tell you, Virginia Tech has one of the worst out of conference schedules imaginable. It may be historically bad. As of Friday, their out-of-conference schedule was ranked 339th in the country...out of 347 teams. Their four games against BCS conference schools came against teams who have no chance of even sniffing the tournament: Seton Hall, Iowa, Penn State and Georgia. Their only tough game away from the ACC came against Temple, a game that Tech lost easily. Other than that, their schedule included (in order): Brown, UNC-Greensboro, Campbell, Delaware (and the Hokies needed OT to win), VMI, Charleston Southern, UMBC, Longwood and North Carolina Central. Four of those teams are below 300 in the RPI. It is rare for a BCS school, especially one that has NCAA Tournament hopes, to play two teams that will finish sub-300 in the RPI. Tech has four on their schedule. Three more of those schools are between 250 and 300. This is just awful. Seth Greenberg is not even trying.

The ACC slate at least helped Tech bump their SOS to 138th in the country. That’s still dead last in the ACC, but it’s an improvement from 339th (Miami is the only other ACC team to have a SOS sub-100). For most of February, the Hokies were unbeatable. Just a week ago, Tech was riding a five-game winning streak. Since then, the Hokies lost to Duke and got blown out at Boston College. The loss to BC, while predictable (see my last post), was still embarrassing. The Hokies lost by 20, and the game really wasn’t that close. At 21-6, and 8-5 in the conference, Virginia Tech’s record is too good for the committee to ignore. But that loss to BC is going to start pushing Tech to the wrong side of the bubble. The Hokies finish with the Terps, NC State and at Georgia Tech. If they only beat NC State during that stretch, there is no way Virginia Tech should be allowed in the dance. I don’t care if they have 22 wins. I don’t care if they are above .500 in conference play. Better teams have been left out of the NCAA Tournament in the past. The committee must come down on Tech like they did in previous seasons on Syracuse. The committee has to force power conference teams to play at least three or four challenging non-conference games, or the non-conference schedule (and part of the regular season) becomes meaningless.

For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech is a two-man team. Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson are a good one-two punch, but that’s all Tech has. Delaney is a slasher more than a shooter, and his numbers bare that out. He’s been to the line 216 times; most in the ACC. He also shoots almost 85% from the stripe. This is typical of a player who takes it to the rim. However, for a guard, Delaney shoots a poor percentage from the floor (38%) and is even worse from three (30%). Keep him from driving, and he can be neutralized. I’ve seen Delaney several times this season. I know he averages 20 points a game. I’ve just never been impressed with him. He’s containable. Sean Mosley should be able to do a decent job on him.

Hudson worries me a little more. He tends to be streaky and his numbers are not as good as Delaney’s. But he’s a scrappy player. He makes several key hustle plays in every game. And since he’s streaky, he can be a perfect complement to Delaney. Maryland can’t afford to pay too much attention to him (Eric Hayes will probably be defending), so there’s a chance he chips in 14-18 points…which will be enough for Tech if Delaney is playing well.

Other than that, there isn’t much to worry about for Maryland. Jeff Allen is still in Blacksburg, but he’s regressed over the last couple of seasons. He’s averaging almost four fouls a game and can’t stay on the floor. Despite being the starting center/power forward, he’s only on the court for 25 minutes. All Maryland, and specifically Vasquez, has to do is go after him early. Tech is not deep (only seven guys average 10+ minutes), most notably inside. This may be one of the only teams in the conference that Maryland has an inside advantage against especially if Allen is in foul trouble. J.T. Thompson, Victor Davila and Terrell Bell will all see playing time, but none of them are good for much. The three of them only combine for 16 points and 13 rebounds in 68 minutes.

Honestly, I’m not sure how Tech has managed to win eight conference games. They only average 37 boards a game, and are well in the minus in rebounding margin (minus 4.1 in conference play to be exact). Over their last six games, Tech has only grabbed 57% of their opponents misses. That’s dreadful. That’s even worse than the Terps have been doing recently. The Hokies shoot 42% from the floor and 72% from the line. Both are good, but certainly not great. They only shoot 30% from beyond the arc. They average more turnovers (12.5 per) than assists (11.6 per). The only two things they do well is get to the free throw line and force turnovers. They are well above average defensively. Tech forces about 16 turnovers a game and their 7.3 steals per game is 2nd best in the ACC. However, with the exception of two conference games, Maryland doesn’t turn the ball over a lot…so that should negate that strength.

The Hokies are undefeated at home. Cassell Coliseum is a dump, but it can be a loud dump when it’s sold out. If Greenberg can convince enough of his students to stop paying attention to football recruiting, he should have no problem filling the small arena. That’s been a challenge as of late. I wouldn’t put too much stock into Tech’s 14-0 home record. They haven’t played too many good teams at Cassell. Of the top four teams in the conference (not counting Tech), the Hokies haven’t played Duke, Maryland or FSU at home. Their toughest home game so far came against Wake Forest. Wake outplayed Tech for most of that game, until Greenberg threw a zone at the Deacons and Dino Gaudio panicked. Their conference home wins have come against UNC, Miami, BC, UVA, Clemson and Wake. That’s not the strongest home slate, so like their overall record, don’t be fooled by the home record either.

This would be a good road win for Maryland, and would set up the game on Wednesday (against a team I dare not speak of yet) very nicely. Hopefully the Terps aren’t caught looking ahead. I'm sure Tech will be ready with their typical thug-antics from Allen and coaching from Greenberg. This Hokies team reminds me more and more of the mid-90's Bob Huggins Cincinnati teams. You know they are going to be athletic, and you know they are going to throw their fair share of elbows. The Hokies definitely have enough talent with Delaney and Hudson to jump up and bite Maryland if they aren't ready.

Maryland 73
Virginia Tech 66

Elsewhere in the ACC…

A nice 3-0 midweek record puts me at 41-14 for the season. That’s pretty darn good in the unpredictable ACC this year.

Boston College at Georgia Tech
If the Jackets find a way to lose this one, then they may not be headed for the NCAA Tournament. Paul Hewitt might also be headed to the unemployment line.
Pick: Georgia Tech 71, Boston College 57

North Carolina at Wake Forest
There’s a potential for an upset here, but I just don’t see the Tar Heels having an answer for both Aminu and Ish Smith. Plus, Wake has had a whole week to stew over their terrible loss to State.
Pick: Wake Forest 82, North Carolina 71

NC State at Miami
Picking this game is like picking a Raiders-Chiefs mid-December game. It’s pointless, and I can save a lot of time (both yours and mine) by not talking a lot about it.
Pick: Miami 68, NC State 61

Clemson at Florida State
Other than MD-Tech, this is the best of the week’s games. I’m feeling pretty good if I’m FSU about a tournament bid. Clemson, on the other hand, needs this one. They don’t desperately need this one, but they need this one. The Tigers showed some signs of life in College Park, but I fear their lousy 2nd half will carry over and cost them against a rested Seminoles team.
Pick: Florida State 77, Clemson 67

Duke at Virginia
Remember when I talked about what I would do if I were in charge of the ACC? I’d make every team play everyone else once before playing the five home-and-homes. This is an example of why. Duke managed to avoid UVA until the last week of February. If Duke played the Cavs in January or early February like everyone else did, then Virginia would have had a pretty good shot of beating them. Now that the Hoos are spiraling out of control, this is an easy win for the Dookies.
Pick: Duke 82, Virginia 65

Maryland Basketball: Chairman Yow

Clemson Tigers (19-7, 7-5 ACC) vs
Maryland Terrapins (19-7, 9-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Imagine what would happen if Cliff Tucker played more than nine minutes a game. Maybe next time Maryland wouldn’t need a buzzer beater to win.

Make no mistake about it, that was a very exciting game against a very good Georgia Tech team. I had been wondering all season when Paul Hewitt would start forcing his guards to get the ball inside. The Jackets had yet to do it all season. Until Saturday. Hewitt finally went with the smart game plan, and probably should have won the game. Unless Maryland runs into Tech in the ACC Tournament, Saturday will thankfully be the last time any of us have to see Derrick Favors. I lost count of how many times Dino Gregory and Landon Milbourne failed to find Favors and box him out, but his 21 points and 18 REBOUNDS (nine offensive, but it felt like more) suggest several occasions.

That’s about as well played a game as you will see in college basketball. Both teams went to their strengths down the stretch, and despite decent defense, neither squad could get a stop when it needed it the most. Maryland just happened to have the last shot…or two. By the way, I think it’s been made pretty public but in case you missed, Gary Williams did not call the timeout before Greivis Vasquez’s non-game winner. It was Keith Booth. I can almost guarantee that Gary "fired" him (as Gary is infamous for doing...ask Jimmy Patsos how many times he was fired over the course of a bad game) during the subsequent timeout. Luckily for Keith, Tucker bailed him out. And for the record, the referees blew that call. The only people who can call a timeout are the five players on the court or the head coach. Booth doesn’t qualify under either of those categories. The timeout should never have been awarded. That’s a pretty old rule too. But I wouldn’t expect Mike Eades and company to remember that. I wouldn’t expect Eades to remember how to dress himself. Maryland was just fortunate enough to get a few extra tenths on the clock before play resumed.

So kudos to Cliff Tucker for stepping up and drilling a big shot. It’s not only an important win for Maryland, it’s an important basket for Tucker. The roller-coaster ride he and his playing time take on a weekly basis makes it impossible for him to get in any rhythm. Hopefully a shot like that helps gives him confidence. Hopefully a shot like that gives him a little more playing time. If you bail out the team and your assistant coach, you should be given a few extra minutes a game. I don’t know how many different ways I can beg to see more of Tucker, so maybe that shot did the trick. Also kudos to Gary. It was a brilliant call. Everyone and their mother expected Vasquez to take the shot. That included Hewitt and Georgia Tech. Gary used Vasquez as a decoy and two Tech defenders were taken completely out of the play as a result.

You would think that with three wins over the course of six days would get Maryland into the polls. You’d be wrong. As I say at least two or three times every year, I really don’t care too much about the rankings. ESPN’s poll is a joke that the network uses to overrate teams that are going to be on their air. The AP poll is a little better, but it’s still constructed by writers who probably haven’t seen half the teams they’re ranking. Regardless, Maryland’s absence from the polls shows how meaningless they truly are. Georgetown is currently 19-7. That’s the same record as Maryland. They are #11 in the AP. Eleventh-ranked! I know they’ve played one of the tougher schedules in the country (compared to Maryland, which still has played a very respectable 30th). They also own losses to South Florida and Rutgers (110th in the RPI). They beat Louisville last night, but they hadn’t won for almost two weeks before that. So if Georgetown can scam the voters for an 11th ranking, are you telling me that Maryland couldn’t be squeezed somewhere in between 20 and 25? By the way, good to see Northern Iowa is in the polls over Maryland. That loss last night to RPI-275th ranked Evansville sure was tough. Almost as bad as their loss earlier this month to Bradley. Or the one earlier this season to DePaul. What a farce.

Speaking of farces, how about the Maryland athletic director? That’s right, I promised all season I would do a brief write-up of how Debbie Yow is screwing up the athletic department. And since Maryland already played Clemson this season, this will be the post. Yow has been the AD at Maryland since 1994. During her tenure, the Maryland athletic department as a whole has won 18 national championships. She reduced the debt that the department owed to nearly nothing. However, since the early part of the last decade, things have started to go horribly wrong for Maryland athletics. And for at least the past five to seven years, Yow has been scheming to get rid of Gary.

Gary and Yow had a decent relationship up until the point that Maryland won their national championship in basketball. Yow knew that Gary would rightfully get most of the credit, but she wanted some herself. However, all the media attention focused on Gary Williams building the program back up from nothing. Very little was written about Yow. The current feud between the two originates from that. She feels she wasn’t given enough credit for turning the program around. Or put it another way…Maryland has 27 programs; Yow has hired the head coach for 26 of those teams at one point or another. Obviously the only one she has had no influence on is men’s basketball. For all intents and purposes, men’s basketball (not football) is the premier sport at Maryland. This rift is all about power and media attention. Yow wants credit, Yow wants power and Gary has basically told her to go fuck off.

So Yow has tried several methods to get rid of him. She’s not stupid; she knows she simply can’t fire Gary for personal reasons. The media and fan base would eat her alive. The first attempt to get rid of Gary was after the back-to-back poor seasons of 2005 and 2006. Maryland missed the tournament both years. The honeymoon period for the championship was over. Suddenly a story floated in to the Washington Post. According to “sources” in the athletic department, there was internal discussion about replacing Williams. Obviously there’s no way to prove it, but chances are the “sources” were one of Yow’s flunkies or Yow herself. There was severe backlash to the story and nothing ever came of it. It was merely a way for Yow to dip her foot in the water to test the temperature. She gauged the reaction of the fan base, and backed off. She realized she’d have to try another approach.

It became clear to her that there were only two ways to get rid of Gary. The first was hoping that the basketball team would go on a prolonged tournament drought. The second was getting fan opinion on her side by painting Gary as a bad guy. Immediately after the ’05 and ’06 seasons, Yow attempted to succeed at the first theory.

Over the last few years, Yow has systematically gone out of her way to nix every borderline recruit that Gary has tried to bring to Maryland. Shane Clark was the first. Clark’s eligibility was up for debate at the NCAA Clearinghouse. Williams went to bat for Clark. Yow and the department did not. Clark was denied admission to the university before school started (but after he had already moved in to the dorms…I saw him moving in with my very own eyes) and before the Clearinghouse ruled on him. Nonetheless, the Clearinghouse, which had originally declared Clark ineligible, reversed course and granted him eligibility. Clark went on to Villanova (a pretty good academic school), had no academic problems and helped make the Wildcats a powerhouse.

Gus Gilchrist was the next player to cross Yow’s path. Gilchrist had committed to Virginia Tech, but wanted out after the April 2007 massacre. The ACC and Tech granted him his wish, but told him that he’d have to sit out an entire season (which is typical) while losing that year of eligibility (which is not). Despite that, Gilchrist still wanted to come to Maryland. But the admissions office, with Yow’s assistance, didn’t allow Gilchrist to enroll until the fall. That meant that Gilchrist would not only have to sit out the 07-08 season, he’d have to sit out the first semester of the 08-09 season AND surrender a second year of eligibility. Gilchrist wisely chose not to do that. South Florida had no problems enrolling Gilchrist in the spring of 07, and he’s been a valuable contributor to the Bulls despite his recent injuries.

Bobby Maze was trying to transfer from junior college to a big time program in the spring of 07. The Suitland native was absolutely in love with Maryland. He even signed up for the message boards and talked to some of the more die-hard Terps fans. Right before becoming eligible, Maze’s grades were suddenly up for question. Again, Williams went to bat for Maze. The athletic department did not. A story broke, first on Terrapin Times, then on mainstream newspapers, that Maryland was going to deny Maze admission. The information came from a “source” within the athletic department. The story was printed before ANYONE, including Gary and Maze himself, knew that Maze wouldn’t be getting in to the school. Instead of smoothing things over or appealing the ruling, Maze was infuriated and decided to enroll at Tennessee. In his two seasons at UT, there hasn’t been whiff of academic trouble for Maze, and he currently averages 25 minutes a game and a 3/1 assist/turnover ratio for a ranked Volunteers team.

Futhermore, to help hurt the team, Yow “balanced” the budget in strange ways. With the state of Maryland, and the nation mired in a recession, cuts were coming to the university and athletic department. That’s hardly Yow’s fault. Yow decided to cut the budgets for each non-revenue sport by about 9%. She decided to cut the budgets for football and men’s basketball by about 5%. Again, no problem yet. Fair is fair. Everyone has to tighten up the belt sometimes. However, Yow cut the budget of the women’s basketball team by less than 3%. Everyone knows how chummy Yow and Brenda Frese are. Yow views Frese as her prized hire. Yow got plenty of credit for the women’s championship in 2006 and for hiring Frese in the first place. Yow also has strong ties to women’s basketball, being the younger sister of Kay Yow. But to protect women’s basketball while every other program gets cut by at least 5%? There’s no excuse for it. Are the women selling out their games? No. Are the women bringing in substantial income to department and university? No. Could fans even tell you half of the players on the women’s team? No. I have no problem with women’s sports, but they don’t run the athletic program financially. Until the women consistently sell out their games like the men, they should be treated like a non-revenue sport. If football and men’s basketball bring in the majority of the cash, that’s where the majority of the athletic budget should go.

So after somewhat succeeding with the first part of Operation Fire Gary, Yow sneakily went about the second part: getting the public on her side. As most know by now, Kay Yow tragically died of cancer last year. While at her sister’s funeral, Yow sent associate AD Kathy Worthington after Gary Williams. Worthington attacked earlier made comments from Gary about the unwillingness of the department to help get Maze and Tyree Evans in to school. Yow made Worthington do this knowing it would provoke the usually combustible Gary…and since she was at her sister’s funeral, Yow would theoretically get the sympathy vote from the public. Sure enough, Worthington’s comments did indeed provoke Gary in to this now famous quote:

"Kathy Worthington doesn't speak for me. She has never won a national championship. She has never done anything. She is an associate AD.”

"Why do they jump on me all the time?" Williams said of school officials. "It's somebody else's call. Who said University of Maryland's call? Nobody. Why can't I say that? This is just giving you guys stuff to make me look bad."

Because Gary was able to read through the B.S. He knew that Yow was behind this, and with his quote, avoided awarding public opinion to Yow. Gary called her bluff, and Yow was forced to come back from Kay’s funeral and issue a statement of support for Williams. The plan didn’t entirely backfire on Yow (since the blame was thrown on Worthington), but it didn’t work either. The fact that Yow used her sister’s funeral as a part of a plan to get rid of her popular head coach is just sickening.

So that’s where we are now. Yow has attempted to take on Gary Williams several times, and it hasn’t worked yet. This season gives Gary room to breathe, since Maryland SHOULD make the tournament with relative ease (knock on wood, knock on wood). With the loss of Vasquez next season, and the loss of recruit Terrence Jones (not Yow’s fault), it should be very interesting to see what happens in 2011 for Gary. On the other hand, Yow can’t afford a slipup. For some insane reason, she gave Ralph Friedgen another season to turn around the football team. That was very unpopular among Maryland fans. All these fights with Williams have proven one thing: that the majority of the fan base is firmly behind Gary and more and more fans are starting to become anti-Yow. The Chairman Yao nickname is rapidly becoming more popular and more appropriate. Also, university president (and Yow’s boss) Dan Mote is stepping down after this academic year. Mote has played middle-man between Yow and Gary for the last few years. He was a big supporter of both of them. So will the new president be so kind to Yow? Or will he/she see that all the good Yow did in the 90’s was quickly undone with bad budget decisions and bad public relations in the 00’s? Anyway, that’s my beef with Yow. She’s done some good for the university, but remember, she’s trying her best to get rid of Gary without it becoming a P.R. nightmare.

To the game tonight, I don’t think Maryland’s going to have another 26-turnover performance against Clemson. Despite those turnovers, Maryland was in the game the entire way and probably should have won. Even with Demontez Stitt back, there’s no way Clemson will force the Terps out of their game like they did in January. I expect Oliver Purnell to press again, but I also expect the Terps to be prepared for it this time. I’m not all that worried about Trevor Booker, but someone does have to box out Jerai Grant this time. Clemson, like every other ACC team, has struggled on the road this season. And if you haven’t been paying attention, Maryland is 6-0 at Comcast against the ACC (I know they needed the buzzer beater, but good teams find ways to win) and plays infinitely better at home than most in the conference. It’s also late-February, and this is right about the time the Tigers have taken nose dives in previous seasons. It will probably be close, but I think Maryland will do a better job protecting the basketball and won’t score only 53 points.

Maryland 76
Clemson 70


Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 3-2 during the weekend so I’m 38-14 overall.

Virginia Tech at Boston College
Call it a Dook-hangover for Virginia Tech or a better-than-their-record indicates Boston College team that usually plays well at home…just don’t call it an upset.
Pick: Boston College 68, Virginia Tech 65

Florida State at North Carolina
UNC gave no effort in either of their road games against Georgia Tech or BC. There’s no reason to think they’ll give any against an FSU team that is still desperate for a couple more wins.
Pick: Florida State 80, North Carolina 67

The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 2/22/10

New set of rankings and brackets for you.

1. Kansas (26-1), LW-1: Not much has changed. They are playing the best basketball in the country.
2. Kentucky (26-1), LW-3: Finally starting to play some decent teams. Two good road wins for the Cats.
3. Purdue (23-3), LW-4: Other than Kansas, no team playing better right now. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the quality of their conference.
4. Syracuse (25-2), LW-5: Move up only because Villanova moves down. Still have them targeted to lose well before the Final Four.
5. Villanova (22-4), LW-2: The loss at Pittsburgh not surprising. Loss to UConn? Well, that shouldn’t happen to a team this talented.
6. Kansas State (22-4), LW-6: Chugging along in the shadow of Kansas and struggling Texas. Uninspired win over Nebraska keeps them at #6.
7. Duke (23-4), LW-7: Another impressive 1st half at Miami. Did I say impressive? I meant dreadful. Luckily, the Dookies got the calls in the 2nd half.
8. New Mexico (25-3), LW-8: I didn’t really believe they were the 8th best team in the country last week despite my ranking. Now I’m starting to.
9. West Virginia (21-5), LW-11: Finally put together two good halves against Providence, then reverted right back to playing one half against Seton Hall.
10. BYU (25-3), LW-12: Didn’t fool around last week against some of the lesser teams in the Mountain West.
11. Texas (21-6), LW-10: Rick Barnes needs to figure out if this is an inside team or a guard-oriented team. I still don’t know. Barnes still doesn’t know. That’s not a good thing in late-February.
12. Michigan State (21-7), LW-9: Spartans continue to sink in the rankings. Loss at home, to an overrated Ohio State team, with Kalin Lucas in the lineup, should be a red flag.
13. Vanderbilt (20-6), LW-13: Won’t fault the Commodores for 2-point loss to Kentucky. They did earn a good road win at desperate Ole Miss.
14. Temple (22-5), LW-16: They didn’t have any impressive wins, but teams ahead of them keep losing.
15. Ohio State (20-7), LW-18: Lost any real chance at a conference title with their loss to Purdue, but road win at Michigan State is good enough to bump them up in the standings.
16. Gonzaga (22-5), LW-14: Loss to LMU is the second time this season Gonzaga has lost focused in the WCC. This could be another first weekend flame out for Mark Few.
17. Georgetown (18-7), LW-15: Oh, I love seeing the Hoyas fall in the rankings. Maybe Little Racist III shouldn’t wait 25 minutes until getting the ball to Greg Monroe.
18. Texas A&M (19-7), LW-17: Arguably outplayed Kansas for 35 minutes, then decided not to score for the final five. Interesting strategy…needless to say, it didn’t work.
19. Pittsburgh (21-6), LW-24: With two wins over Marquette and Villanova, Panthers make the biggest leap in the rankings.
20. Butler (25-4), LW-22: No matter what happens, I can’t justify moving the Bulldogs much higher than this. They’ve been playing nobodies for the past two months.
21. Baylor (20-6), LW-19: Win against Texas Tech was probably enough to lock up a tournament bid. Loss to Oklahoma State helped the Cowboys get close to one for themselves.
22. Tennessee (20-6), LW-23: Their win over Kansas remains the only impressive thing the Vols have done this season.
23. Wisconsin (20-7), LW-21: Bad loss to Minnesota was followed by a near loss to Northwestern. Barely staying in my rankings this week.
24. Maryland (19-7), LW-NR: Gotta put the Terps in for three wins in six days. Fully anticipate taking them out next week since they’ll probably lose one of their next two.
25. Northern Iowa (24-3), LW-25: Panthers continue to play like a 6/7 seed that will lose to an average power conference team in the first round.

Next 5: Clemson, Richmond, Missouri, San Diego State, Xavier


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

Notes: Since Thursday, there have been a couple of changes. Florida and Rhode Island are both back in. Mississippi State is also in. Illinois, Mississippi and Dayton all come out. I debated for a good period about Wichita State, but decided to keep them in. They are walking a fine line the rest of the way. North Texas and Bucknell get in for leading their respective conferences.

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (7): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1): California
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (4): Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt: North Texas
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Campbell
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland


EAST REGION (Syracuse)
Milwaukee
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Robert Morris
(8) Wake Forest vs. (9) Louisville
Providence
(4) Temple vs. (13) Cornell
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Siena
Spokane
(6) Butler vs. (11) Virginia Tech
(3) BYU vs. (14) Oakland
Providence
(7) Missouri vs. (10) UTEP
(2) Villanova vs. (15) North Texas

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
New Orleans
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Campbell
(8) Florida State vs. (9) San Diego State
Spokane
(4) Georgetown vs. (13) Weber State
(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Old Dominion
Milwaukee
(6) Baylor vs. (11) Rhode Island
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Charleston
Jacksonville
(7) Northern Iowa vs. (10) Florida
(2) Duke vs. (15) Coastal Carolina

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Oklahoma City
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Bucknell/Jackson State
(8) California vs. (9) UAB
Jacksonville
(4) Ohio State vs. (13) Wichita State
(5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) Mississippi State
San Jose
(6) Maryland vs. (11) St. Mary’s
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Sam Houston State
Buffalo
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Oklahoma State
(2) West Virginia vs. (15) Morgan State

WEST REGION (Salt Lake City)
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) Stony Brook
(8) Richmond vs. (9) Georgia Tech
San Jose
(4) Texas vs. (13) Kent State
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Utah State
New Orleans
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) UNLV
(3) Vanderbilt vs. (14) Murray State
Oklahoma City
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Marquette
(2) Kansas State vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara

Maryland Basketball: Do Me A Favors

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (18-8, 6-6 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (18-7, 8-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

There’s nothing wrong with grinding out a win. Especially on the road. It doesn’t matter how bad NC State may be. Road wins aren’t easy to come by, especially in this conference. Especially coming off less than 48 hours rest. There are only three teams that have three or more road conference wins in the ACC: Duke, Florida State and Maryland. So while you’ll get no argument from me or anyone else that Maryland certainly didn’t play all that well on Wednesday, they managed to do enough for the win. That’s all that matters at this point of the season.

Greivis Vasquez is going to be the name that stands out in the box score. He has 26 points to go along with six assists and four boards. Over the last five games, he’s averaged 24.4 points. If he’s not player of the year in the ACC at this point, then some of the voters should have their credentials revoked. Yet, as good as Vasquez was, there were other performances that were more important. Jordan Williams had a field day inside. 19 points and 11 boards against Tracy Smith…and every single point was needed. Every time State seemed destined to go on a run in the second half, Williams had an answer. Also contributing a strong performance was Adrian Bowie. After missing in action for the past three weeks (seven points combined in the previous five games), Bowie hit two crucial shots in the second half during Maryland’s run to take the lead. For whatever reason, Bowie has disappeared in conference play this season. He seems to have no confidence. He’s hesitating to take open shots and forcing shots that have no chance to go in. At times, he looks completely lost on the court. Hopefully the big baskets help get his confidence back to where it was at the end of last season. He can be a very valuable player off the bench, especially if Eric Hayes craps the bed like he did against the Pack (edit: learned after the fact that Hayes had the flu earlier this week…probably the reason for his rough outing). Finally, even though he didn’t play much against NC State, I need to give a late shout out to James Padgett. I neglected to mention Padgett after his effort against Virginia. He played a long stretch of minutes in the first half, making a couple of hoops and grabbing a couple of boards. When Williams gets in early foul trouble, Padgett is going to be needed off the bench. Good to see him finally getting some playing time.

So the Terrapins keep getting closer and closer to locking up a tournament bid. They aren’t there yet. Everyone thinks that two more wins, whether in the regular season or ACC tournament, would probably do the trick. I really don’t want to get started with all that. In fact, this season feels a little reminiscent of 2008. Maryland got off to a strong conference start (7-4), then collapsed over the last five games and missed the tournament. And the final five this season are BRUTAL. Two home games against talented but poorly coached Georgia Tech and Clemson, a road trip to Blacksburg, senior night against the Dookies and the finale at Virginia, where Maryland always seems to find a way to lose. Nothing about any of those five games screams easy win. The Terps have done a great job this season managing to avoid “must-win” games, or at least having must win games against bad teams (like the home game against NC State and Monday’s game against Virginia). Maryland hasn’t forced themselves into a position of going on the road and facing a must-win against a good team. But this is where that loss to Wake Forest comes back and bites the Terps. If Maryland was sitting at 9-2, then all they’d really need is one win. Even if they play poorly over the next five games, I have enough faith in the Terps to scratch out one win during that stretch. Heck, if Maryland plays like they have all season, then there should be no problem getting two or three. However, if the Terps start to hit the skids, they may find that tenth win to be elusive. The 8-3 record is good, but that 9-2 record would look really nice right about now.

The loss to Wake makes this two-game home stand very important. Maryland can’t lose both games. A split may even be a bit disastrous. The Terrapins certainly have the capability of beating Georgia Tech and Clemson (they played like ass at Littlejohn and still almost came away with a win), but they also have the capability to lose both of those games. A loss to Tech makes the Clemson game a must-win. So even though the Terps are 8-3 and are in great position in both the ACC and the nation, the game today feels a little like a must-win.

Coming into the season, I thought Georgia Tech had the potential to win the conference. The Yellow Jackets definitely have the best frontcourt in the ACC with both Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. Even with their current record, if I could take any combination of forwards from an ACC roster, it would be the Lawal-Favors monster. The two combine to average 25 points and 18 rebounds a game. They also average three to four blocked shots a game. Neither of them have the tendency to foul out. They are dangerous at both ends of the court. So with that in mind, how in the world is Georgia Tech 18-8 and only 6-6 in the ACC?

There are several reasons. The first and main reason has been coaching. Despite having two terrific power forwards, Paul Hewitt allows his guards to dominate the game. I’ve watched at least six or seven Tech games this season. Every time I watch them, I’m stunned by the inability of Tech’s backcourt to get the ball to Favors or Lawal. Not only that, I lost count of how many times the guards would hoist up bad shots and how many possessions Tech had where neither Favors or Lawal even touched the basketball. And Hewitt doesn’t prevent that from happening. If I was coaching Tech, and there were two or three consecutive possessions where my NBA-caliber power forwards weren’t touching the ball, and my guards kept jacking up terrible threes, I would call a timeout and bench my guards. Or at least spend the entire timeout blasting them until they understood that one of the big men had to get the ball in their hands every time down the court. Hewitt doesn’t do this. He kind of just sits and stares. Every once and awhile he’ll get up and point. He seems completely comfortable letting his guards make stupid plays. The sad thing is, Hewitt is a pretty good coach. Or was a good coach at one point. Don’t forget that he had Georgia Tech a couple of minutes away from a National Championship in 2004. I’ve been sort of stunned this season by his inability to get the most out of his team.

The Yellow Jackets are deep. Hewitt will play nine guys. Iman Shumpart, D’Andre Bell and Mfon Udofia (leave it to Hewitt to have at least one or two players on his roster that are impossible to spell) are the main ball-handlers. All three have seemingly hit a wall the last couple of weeks. Shumpart has scored in double-digits just once in his last six games. Bell has had four assists and 14 turnovers in his last five. Udofia has barely dented the score sheet in any category since the game against Division-2 Kentucky State on January 30th. Since none of these three like to get the ball to Lawal and Favors, and Hewitt doesn’t check any of them, they are the primary reasons that Tech has lost three of their last five and four of their last seven in conference.

Zachery Peacock is still in Atlanta, averaging ten points and four boards a game. Peacock is good enough to kill the opponent quietly while Lawal and Favors have good games. However, Peacock is not able to take a game over himself. Brian Oliver is the three-point guy. 127 of his 164 attempts have been from beyond the arc. He shoots close to 42%, and at 6’6”, can be a matchup problem (sounds like a job for Sean Mosley). Maryland can’t not lose track of Oliver, especially since he’s averaged 14 points over the last three games. Glen Rice Jr. and Maurice Miller have stepped up with Shumpart-Bell-Udofia struggling. Neither has played a lot this year, so their averages don’t look great. But Rice had a couple of nice games recently against Duke and Wake. He can also shoot from outside (47%). Miller has 23 points, ten boards and seven assists in the last two games and he only played 45 minutes. So while the big three guards have struggled, Hewitt has been able to dive into his bench to get quality minutes recently.

The Bees have been up and down all season. They’ve been swept by Florida State. They lost at Virginia and at Miami. They even lost to dreadful Georgia before jumping into their ACC schedule. Recently, Tech almost blew a 20-point lead at home to NC State. However, they own wins against Duke, Wake and Clemson…even though all of those wins have been at home. Wake and Duke have beaten Tech away from Alexander Memorial, and did so quite handedly. The Jackets only road win in conference was a two-point squeaker against UNC. Georgia Tech averages 75 points a game, but they’ve only broken the 70-point mark in two of their six ACC road games. Simply put, Georgia Tech struggles to score when they play away from Atlanta, and that’s the reason they are 1-5 in conference when they travel.

Tech is a big team, yet their rebounding margin is an even zero. In conference play, they’ve grabbed the same amount of rebounds as their opponents have. Lawal and Favors are the only ones who consistently grab boards. If one gets in foul trouble, the Jackets become a much easier team to beat (hint to Vasquez…please drive early in this game). The depth of the Jackets also worries me. As everyone following the Terps knows, this will be game #4 in eight days. How well Maryland’s legs hold up will be a huge factor. If Hewitt decides to go nine deep, and he should, then the Terps could be in trouble. However, Maryland has been lights out at home during conference play. This team has yet to have a nail-biter at Comcast all season. Plus, Maryland owns an eight-game winning streak over the Jackets. That’s the longest by any ACC team over another conference squad. So Gary has Hewitt’s number as of late. I think Tech has a couple of mismatches on the floor, but the home court advantage should propel Maryland to a key and close win.

Maryland 74
Georgia Tech 69


Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 3-0 during the middle of the week, so the conference predicting record continues to soar to 35-12. Here are the weekend games.

North Carolina at Boston College
This is a Saturday afternoon CBS game. I guess CBS couldn’t work out a flex schedule with the NCAA.
Pick: North Carolina 72, Boston College 66

Wake Forest at NC State
The Deacons have had an extra day to prepare. The Deacons have Al Farouq Aminu. The Deacons aren’t coached by a man who usually wears a techno-colored dream coat. Should be an easy win.
Pick: Wake Forest 77, NC State 63

Virginia at Clemson
Things have been going south for Tony Bennett and company. Safe to say the honeymoon is officially over. The Hoos were booed off the court after they were embarrassed at home on Wednesday.
Pick: Clemson 74, Virginia 58

Virginia Tech at Duke
The Dookies get back to Cameron, so even after their dreadful first half against Miami, things will be just fine for them. Plus, someone needs to knock the Hokies down a peg. No way this team should be 21-4.
Pick: Duke 80, Virginia Tech 68

The Predictor Tournament Bids & Brackets: 2/18/10

Since I was bored, I decided to do a mid-week revisit for tournament bids and introduce my first bracket projection of the year. Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

Notes: Since Monday, I've had a couple of changes of heart. Florida and Rhode Island (losers of three straight) are out. Oklahoma State and Wichita State are in. Campbell pulled ahead of Belmont in the Atlantic Sun, so they replace Belmont with a bid. Bids are as follows:

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (7): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1): California
SEC (4): Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (4): Dayton, Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Campbell
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland

As for the brackets...a couple of obvious rules. Syracuse can't play at their own regional and Marquette can't play the first two rounds in Milwaukee. Despite being located in Spokane, Gonzaga can play their first two rounds at their home away from home, since Washington State is hosting the sub-regional. Not fair, but those aren't my rules.

EAST REGION (Syracuse)
Providence
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Lehigh
(8) Georgia Tech vs. (9) San Diego State
Spokane
(4) Baylor vs. (13) Cornell
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) St. Mary’s
Providence
(6) Tennessee vs. (11) Old Dominion
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Charleston
Jacksonville
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Illinois
(2) Duke vs. (15) Middle Tennessee State

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
New Orleans
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Robert Morris
(8) Missouri vs. (9) Florida State
Jacksonville
(4) Georgetown vs. (13) Utah State
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Wichita State
San Jose
(6) Pittsburgh vs. (11) UTEP
(3) BYU vs. (14) Sam Houston State
Oklahoma City
(7) Maryland vs. (10) Dayton
(2) Kansas State vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Oklahoma City
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Campbell/Jackson State
(8) California vs. (9) UAB
Milwaukee
(4) Temple vs. (13) Weber State
(5) Wake Forest vs. (12) Mississippi
San Jose
(6) Texas A&M vs. (11) Marquette
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Oakland
Buffalo
(7) Northern Iowa vs. (10) Virginia Tech
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Coastal Carolina

WEST REGION (Salt Lake City)
Milwaukee
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Stony Brook
(8) Richmond vs. (9) Louisville
Spokane
(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Kent State
(5) Texas vs. (12) Siena
New Orleans
(6) Butler vs. (11) UNLV
(3) Vanderbilt vs. (14) Murray State
Buffalo
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Oklahoma State
(2) Syracuse vs. (15) Morgan State

Maryland Basketball: Shoot High, Aim Lowe

Maryland Terrapins (17-7, 7-3 ACC) vs.
NC State Wolfpack (14-12, 2-9 ACC)
RBC Center - Raleigh, NC

I don’t mind watching the Terps play every other day, but it’s not easy having to write about them at the same clip. There wasn’t much to say after the Dook loss and there’s not much to say after the Virginia win. Maryland wanted the game, Virginia clearly didn’t. The 19-point difference at the end couldn’t sugarcoat the fact that Maryland was about 30 points better than UVA. Once the Cavs fell behind by 10, they looked completely disinterested. For their part, Maryland at least complied and stepped on their necks at the end of the first half. Nice to see. Greivis Vasquez was unreal in the first half. I know most didn’t see the game, but trust me. I was in attendance and he was unstoppable. Virginia tried to guard him with five different players and none of them could do anything. He made his mind up that he was going to score at will and he did. Hopefully the NBA scouts can get their hands on the game film, because he looked like an NBA player on Monday.

Other than Vasquez, the most impressive thing from the Virginia game was the performance of Cliff Tucker. He didn’t do a whole lot offensively, but his defense was phenomenal. Sean Mosley was given the Sylven Landesberg assignment. Mosley picked up two early fouls and had to sit. Gary surprisingly replaced him with Tucker, whose defense is usually suspect. Tucker helped make Landesberg a non-factor in the first half and helped Maryland to their large early lead. If Tucker can play defense like that, then there is no question in my mind that he should be starting over Mosley. As good as Mosley is defensively, he’s been doing nothing on offense the last few games. He can’t even make open shots. In the last five games, he’s scored a grand total of 21 points on 9-of-26 shooting. Against UVA and the last game against FSU, he didn’t make a shot from the floor. He also has nine turnovers to go with eleven assists. But since he can play defense and scrap together a few rebounds, he’s held down the starting spot.

Tucker has proved over the course of the past month that he’s a much better defender than in the past. Futhermore, putting Tucker in the starting lineup gives a small Maryland team a few more inches of height. It also gives Maryland another player that can’t be ignored on the offensive end. Putting Tucker in the lineup means there’s one less opposing defender that can help out on Vasquez. Tucker is capable of hitting threes, and opposing coaches know it. Whereas whichever player guards Mosley is free to roam and double down, Tucker’s defender can’t afford to leave him alone. I’m not saying Mosley shouldn’t play. I’m not saying that Mosley doesn’t play an important role on the team. I’m just saying that over the course of the last five or six games, Tucker has earned a chance to start while Mosley hasn’t done a whole lot to keep his spot. If Tucker keeps getting 20 minutes a game, then it really doesn’t matter. However, it’s rare that any bench player for Maryland sees 20 minutes. Tucker only played that long against UVA because of Mosley’s foul trouble. It’s certainly worth an experiment over the course of the next couple games.

The Terps now play their third game in five days and make their second trip of the week to the Raleigh-Durham slums. Analyzing NC State is a waste of time. Those who are interested can go to my post last month before the first Pack-Terps game. Here’s the cliff note version: they are bad. When Maryland last played them, State was coming off a win against Duke (a loss that looks more and more ridiculous for the Dookies the further we get from it) and was a respectable 2-3 in the conference. Since getting blown out at College Park, the Wolfpack have lost six straight ACC games. Their only win in that span came against faux-Division 1 team North Carolina Central. Their loss to Georgia Tech was close, but the other five losses came by double-digits.

I guess I’ll spend the rest of the post making fun of Sidney Lowe. It’s become an annual tradition. Lowe is clueless. I still can’t believe that NC State backers ran Herb Sendek out of town after making FIVE straight NCAA tournaments. Sendek probably looks like Dean Smith now for Wolfpack fans. I know that Sendek didn’t play the most entertaining version of basketball. His 72-88 conference record wasn’t anything to brag about. He didn’t do a great job recruiting. He certainly had NC State playing fourth fiddle among the other three Carolina schools. But he was at least a half-decent game day coach. Look at his final five seasons at State: 23-11, 18-13, 21-10, 21-14 and 22-10. Five tournament bids. He won the opening round game four times. He made the Sweet 16 in 2005.

Compare that to Lowe. In his four seasons at State, the records look like this: 20-16, 15-16, 16-14 and 14-12. No tournament bids. Only one NIT invitation. 10th place, 12th place, 10th place and on his way to another 12th place finish in the ACC this season. He’s an abysmal 17-42 in conference play. And he wears a hideous red blazer to all the important games.

There was nothing to ever suggest that Lowe would be a good coach at the college level. He was 79-228 as a NBA head coach. That’s a 25.7% winning percentage. Other than Lowe being a former Wolfpack player, the coaching move from Sendek to Lowe didn’t make sense from the beginning. NC State screwed up its coaching search (going after John Calipari and Rick Barnes, despite having no chance to land either) and got stuck with Lowe. This should be a cautionary tale for those who still think Maryland’s better off replacing Gary. If you don’t have a better candidate lined up before you make the move of firing the current coach, you could get stuck with your fifth or sixth choice.

Things have gotten so bad for Lowe that his own players aren’t even defending him anymore. The only support he’s getting is from a recruit who been stuck playing for him yet. The story is beyond funny. There’s a good chance that Ryan Harrow never gets the chance to play for Lowe, but there’s still a good chance that he does. Either way, Harrow is certainly better off looking for a different school.

As for this game, the only thing stopping Maryland from winning is short rest. It’s the x-factor that could tilt the matchup to NC State. The Wolfpack have played one game the past week. They should be well rested. Other than that, all signs point to Maryland. In order for the Terps to win, they have to stop Tracy Smith. The Terps already did it once this season, as most of Smith’s 18 points up in College Park came in the second half when the game was already out of hand. Gary Williams owns NC State. Sendek would give him trouble every once and awhile, but even when accounting in the Sendek years, Williams is 33-11 against the Wolfpack. Gary is 6-0 against Lowe and all but last year’s ACC Tournament game have been decided by 11 points or more. Vasquez has also dominated the Wolfpack, scoring 15, 33, 17 and 19 in his last four games against State. As bad as the FSU crowd was, the NC State rednecks figure to be much worse in terms of their derogatory comments…a factor that usually helps Vasquez concentrate and play better.

Maryland must win this game. This is their last game of the season against any of the four bottom teams in the conference. None of the next five games are automatic W’s. Even on the road, this is as close to an easy win as you can find in the ACC. Maryland has to take advantage of it.

Maryland 74
NC State 62


Elsewhere in the ACC…

Just two games tonight. I lost track of my overall record, but I believe it is 32-12, give or take a couple of games.

Duke at Miami
Anytime the Dookies go on the road, there’s a chance for them to drop one. However, Miami may be the only team worse than NC State in the ACC. Wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not picking it.
Pick: Duke 71, Miami 56

Florida State at Virginia
The Cavs are on their predicted crash course to Earth. They’ll remain in the tailspin until jumping up and biting Maryland on the final weekend of the regular season.
Pick: Florida State 67, Virginia 63

The Predictor Top 25 & Tournament Bids: 2/15/10

Rankings, but no pith. Teams that are in, but no bracketology. That’s what happens when Maryland plays three games in five days. Don’t blame me, blame the snow.

1. Kansas (24-1), LW-1
2. Villanova (22-2), LW-2
3. Kentucky (24-1), LW-3
4. Purdue (21-3), LW-5
5. Syracuse (24-2), LW-4
6. Kansas State (20-4), LW-6
7. Duke (21-4), LW-11
8. New Mexico (23-3), LW-12
9. Michigan State (20-6), LW-8
10. Texas (20-5), LW-9
11. West Virginia (19-5), LW-7
12. BYU (23-3). LW-13
13. Vanderbilt (19-5), LW-15
14. Gonzaga (21-4). LW-17
15. Georgetown (18-6), LW-10
16. Temple (20-5), LW-18
17. Texas A&M (18-6), LW-20
18. Ohio State (20-6), LW-23
19. Baylor (19-5), LW-21
20. Wake Forest (18-5), LW-24
21. Wisconsin (19-6), LW-14
22. Butler (23-4), LW-NR
23. Tennessee (18-6), LW-16
24. Pittsburgh (19-6), LW-NR
25. Northern Iowa (22-3), LW-22

Next 5: Illinois, Clemson, Maryland, Richmond, UNLV


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

Notes: I fully anticipate the Pac-10 getting two teams in this season. I know that it's absolutely the worst conference ever (or at least that's what every media outlet is telling you), but they'll sneak either Washington or Arizona State in there with Cal. And I don't see the Atlantic-10 getting six teams...just not gonna happen. Other than that, I leaned on the standings more then RPI. That's why Missouri is in over OK State, Marquette over the Big East backwash, Old Dominion over the crowded top in the CAA. By that reasoning, Virginia Tech has to be in even though they have very few quality wins.

POWER
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1): California
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (5): Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Alabama-Birmingham, UTEP
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland

Maryland Basketball: I Left My Heart In Charlottesville

Virginia Cavaliers (14-8, 5-4 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (16-7, 6-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Luckily, Maryland doesn’t have a lot of time to fool around after laying another egg in Durham. It’s not the loss that bothers me, since the Terps really couldn’t play any worse and the officiating couldn’t have been poorer (no free throws for the Terrapins in the first 25 minutes of the game - despite Maryland winning the points in the paint battle – should answer any questions remaining about ACC officiating protecting Ratface and company). What upsets me is that we made the 7’1” alien look like a competent basketball player. Some of his success was from the refs letting him go over the back on half his rebounds. The other half was Maryland refusing to acknowledge his existence. I don’t really blame them for that in the early going, since Ratface hasn’t acknowledged his existence for the past few seasons, but after his early success it may have been worthwhile to put an extra body on him.

Gotta move on. The loss wasn’t unexpected. The loss wasn’t season-shattering. Maryland put themselves in a position where they didn’t need to win at Dook, and the loss won’t really affect their RPI or seeding in March (Maryland actually went UP four spots in the RPI after the game). The only chance it has to ruin their season is if the Terps linger on it too much.

They can’t afford to linger on it because Tony Bennett and Virginia are serenading their way to College Park for a very short turnaround for both teams (and yours truly…hence the shortness of this post). The Cavaliers got tired of Dave Leitao doing relatively nothing other than accidently landing bass-ackwards into Sean Singletary. The Leitao regime followed an equally disappointing regime from Pete Gillen. Virginia really hasn’t been relevant since 2002. So when Virginia went way outside the box and hired Bennett from the hinterlands of Washington State, most around the league figured that the Hoos wouldn’t stand much of a chance in the ACC. Turns out they were wrong.

Virginia charged out to a 3-0 start in conference, and currently sits at 5-4. That’s puts them all alone in 5th place, which is about 7 spots higher than most had them (for the record, I at least put them ahead of NC State at the beginning of the season). Their in conference resume is not that different than Maryland’s. They’ve beaten NC State twice. They blew out the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. That’s been one of the big differences this year for Virginia. They have proven they can win on the road. One of the knocks against Gillen-Leitao was their complete inability to win a road game, even against terrible compeitition. The Cavs also have wins against Miami and Georgia Tech at home. They’ve also lost twice to the Hokies and twice to the Deacons, the most recent loss in overtime.

Out of conference is a different story. Most 5-4 ACC teams would be a strong NCAA Tournament candidate, but Virginia remains on the edge of the bubble because of what happened in November and December. They lost four games against BCS conference competition, but the losses came to USF, Stanford, Penn State and Auburn. Auburn is 150th in the RPI. Stanford is 166th. Penn State is 222nd and still hasn’t won a conference game. Their best win came against UAB. So that’s why UVA is only 94th in the RPI and probably a couple of big wins away from a sure bid. Their 97th ranked schedule strength isn’t helping.

Anyway, how good is Virginia? Better than everybody thought, but I’m still not sold on them being a NCAA Tournament team. Only their future game against Boston College looks like a sure win right now. Their three remaining home games are against Florida State, Duke and Maryland. Other than this road game, they still make visits to Clemson and Miami. I could easily see them ending up at 7-9 in conference, and that won’t get them close to the Big Dance.

UVA has played well in conference so far because of the maturation of Sylven Landesberg. Anyone who watched him last year could tell he was a future star…but I didn’t think it would happen by his sophomore season. Certainly not with a coaching change. But Landesberg is in or near the Top 10 of all the important categories in the conference. 18 points per game, 5.2 rebounds and 3 assists make him dangerous in several ways. He drives well. He shoots well from the floor. His passing skills may not be comparable to Singletary, but he’s getting closer. His free throw percentage is 83%. The only thing he doesn’t do extraordinarily well is shoot 3’s. His 34% three-point shooting is good, not great. He’s very streaky from beyond the arc, but because he can get hot, he’s always a threat.

The rest of the UVA crew is as follows. Mike Scott is their best post player. He scores 13.4 a game with 7.7 rebounds. Landesberg doesn’t need to shoot threes because UVA has three other guys who can do it. Sammy Zeglinski (42.5%), Jeff Jones (41.7%) and Mustapha Farrakhan (37.3%...and enter slightly racist joke here) can all do the job. Jerome Meyinsee is their scrapper. Every time I watch a Virginia game he’s coming up with two or three key rebounds and buckets. The rest of the lineup doesn’t contribute much or doesn’t play.

Bennett’s coaching style, at least so far, is comparable to Herb Sendek. He knows he has a couple of good players and a bunch of role guys. So he forces Virginia to shorten the contest, have long possessions, take timely 3’s, play defense, and generally makes every game an eyesore. But it’s working. The Cavs only average 69 points a game, but they only give up 61. This is a patient team that doesn’t turn the ball over a lot and tends to get good shots from close or midrange. Their low rebounding totals (35.4 a game) are suggestive of two things. No, UVA isn’t great inside. But they also shoot well as a team (45%) and don’t need to grab a lot of rebounds…at least on the offensive end.

So the Cavs are going to make this game ugly, and the Terps are going to have to be patient. I would really like to see Cliff Tucker inserted in the lineup for Sean Mosley, but because Mosley will probably matchup against Landesberg, that should wait a game. I think Tucker has definitely earned a chance, and Mosley’s offensive output doesn’t warrant the minutes he’s getting. But defensively, Mosley HAS to play against Landesberg because he’s the only Terps defender that can hang with. Other than being patient, the Terps have to shut down Landesberg early. Don’t let him get into a rhythm. Typically, Landesberg shoots a lot in the first half, then gets his teammates involved in the second after the defense adjusts. Mosley has to shut him down early. Shut down Landesberg, and the rest of Virginia will follow. This is a game Maryland must win. Not only for their place in the ACC standings, but for their tournament profile as well. The Terps usually struggle at Charlottesville, but fare well against UVA at home.

Maryland 68
Virginia 61

Maryland Basketball: Hanging With The Rat Pack

Maryland Terrapins (16-6, 6-2 ACC) vs.
#8/7 Duke Blue Devils (20-4, 8-2 ACC)
The Durham Dump – Durham, NC

So much for overlooking Virginia. The second blizzard in a four-day span sent Tony Bennett and the Hoos singing back to Charlottesville (Like the Tony Bennett joke? Too bad, you’ll be seeing a lot more of them next week). For those who haven’t heard, the Maryland-Virginia game will now be played at 8 p.m. on Monday and found nowhere on TV. If you really want to watch on ESPN360, go for it, but I wouldn’t encourage using it. 360 is inconsistent at best. Game tracker and the radio are honestly better than that. Since I have tickets, I plan to be at the game. Then again, another 2-3 inches of snow are already being predicted for Monday afternoon and the prediction is probably only going to go higher. So maybe not.

There are pros and cons to the cancellation/rescheduling of the UVA game for Monday. One benefit is getting a few extra days to prepare for the Dookies (more on those dorks in a minute). We all knew Maryland was going to spend a few extra days preparing for them anyway, the postponement only assured the Terps they wouldn’t lose to Virginia in the process. I instantly feel better about both the Dook contest and the UVA game with the new-look schedule.

As for the cons, it forces Maryland (and the Cavs) to play four games in eight days. The real problem will be three games in five days. The Terps travel to the slums of Durham Friday, play on Satuday, jet back up to College Park for Monday’s game against Virginia, then go back down to the Triangle to play NC State Wednesday. Ugh. Obviously the Terrapins will be well rested for the Caffeinated Nerds. Virginia will be on the same short rest that Maryland will be, plus the extra travel should give the slight edge to the Terps. But the game at NC State, which looked to be as close to an automatic-win as a team can get on an ACC schedule, is now a lot tougher than originally hoped for. As is the Saturday game against another well-rested team in Georgia Tech. It took Maryland a month to play the first half of their conference schedule. Now it will take them eight days to play a quarter of it.

Maryland also loses some momentum. After going to Tallahassee and outlasting Lenny Hamilton and the Kitchen sink, then beating up on poor Roy and Carolina, it would have been nice to get Virginia as scheduled…even with the trip to Duke on the horizon. The players have been sitting around for days now, since Gary canceled practice on Wednesday and canceled the evening session on Thursday because of the gauntlet facing the team next week. Any momentum from those two wins has now effectively been doused.

As much as I can’t stand Debbie Yow (and maybe later in the year - possibly the next Clemson preview – we’ll get into why), and as obvious as it was that she forced both Maryland and Virginia into this decision because of potential lost revenue and NOT the safety and well being of fans or players, the postponement of the game was the right call. The Washington area saw blizzard like conditions for Wednesday afternoon and early evening, or right as most fans would have been making their way to the Comcast Center. It took me 15-20 minutes to walk from my apartment to work, which usually takes me five. I can promise you that Wisconsin Avenue is still not cleared off and was an absolute mess Wednesday. I can only imagine what the PG County roads looked like. So even though it looks as if the postponement will do more harm than good for the Terps, it was the right move by the University.

So with six days of rest, the snowbound Terps head south to the Durham Dump. They will find the Blow Devils up to their usual tricks of being overrated and hyped up by the national media to nauseating levels. But wait! This is a different Dook team! This team has height! This team can rebound! This team doesn’t rely on jump shots! True, false and very false. Dook is taller than in recent years, but look at who you’re talking about. Alien Space Captain Zoubek is quite possibly the most awkward man to every wear a uniform for Ratface (and that’s really saying something…may I remind you about this freak). Lance “I Got Five Fouls, And I’m Gonna Use Them” Thomas contributes absolutely nothing on either end. He probably won’t play because of a ankle injury suffered against UNC. And it might be better for Dook if he doesn’t suit up. Following in the footsteps of Clemson and Carolina, the Dookies even have their very own set of brothers. The Tweedle-Dumblee brothers are basically the same player. It’s not worth my time to differentiate between the two of them. I do know one of them is a typical Dook White Stiff Thug, since he was responsible for elbowing a FSU player in the face; taking advantage of the injury by dunking on the player and then finishing the play by taunting him. That was followed by a referee (most likely Karl Hess) calling a technical foul on the FSU player for running into Dumblee’s elbow with his face. I’m pretty sure it was Mason…but don’t hold me to it. One of the Dumblees is half-decent, the other is soft. In fact, Dook as a whole is very soft. But I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. These scumbags - protected by the officials - will cheap shot you all game. When one of your players pushes back (aka Dave Neal putting Nolan Smith to sleep last season), the punks flop to the ground like an injured soccer player and wait until the media gets up in arms about the poor Dook players. If the refs and ACC media didn’t coddle these guys, they might never grab a rebound.

Despite all the b.s. about Dook being physical and tall, this team still revolves around three players and still relies way too much on jump-shooting. Smith (a player I can sort of tolerate), Requisite White Stiff and Screamin’ Jon Scheyer are the only three players worth worrying about. Smith, when conscious, plays the game the right way. He’s averaging 17 points and three assists a game. He doesn’t just jack up any shot he sees. In my opinion, he is the most dangerous player on the floor since he does what the other two jerkoffs don’t. He drives to the hoop. He tries mid-range jumpers. He’s good at kicking the ball out to the perimeter. He plays defense. He doesn’t slap the floor like a monkey. He’s a tough matchup for a smaller guard and also one who is tall but slow.

Requisite White Stiff has played well as of late, but has struggled overall this season. As of a couple of weeks ago, there was even a resounding call from the Dook media to bench him. He is certainly one of the dumber players in the league. Despite being 6’8”, and being protected by the refs in most games, Frankenstein shoots 39% of his shots from beyond the arc. Landon Milbourne, a very similar player in both size and game, attempts only 11% of his shots from three. He does most of his work within 10-12 feet of the hoop, and only leads the entire ACC in shooting percentage during conference games. What’s the difference? Landon has a bit of a mean streak and half a brain. Singler should not be a matchup problem for either Milbourne or Sean Mosley in this game.

As for Screamin’ Jon, this is typical Dook creep that the media touts as conference player of the year only because he’s the projected best player on Dook. As of right now, I have Scheyer a solid fourth in the race for ACC POY. He’s well behind Greivis Vasquez, Sylven Landesberg and Al-Farouq Aminu at this point. I would even consider Gani Lawal ahead of the Screamer, since he puts up pretty good numbers on a team that refuses to get him the ball. Don’t believe me? Brainwashed by the typical Tobacco Road media? Let’s take a closer look.

For comparison sake, I’ll just run down his numbers with Vasquez’s, using conference games only (this is a conference award, not a national one). They both play the same position. They are both the leaders on their teams. Vasquez has 20.4 points per game, good enough to be tied for 2nd in the ACC with Landesberg. Scheyer has 18.8 points per game, or 4th place. Vasquez is in the Top 10 in shooting percentage (43%). The Screamer is not. Vasquez leads the conference with 6.9 assists per game, over half an assist more than the nearest player (Ish Smith). Scheyerface has 4.7 a game, which is 5th. Still with me? Good, let’s continue.

3-point shooting percentage, which is what Scheyer is supposedly known for, should be the category that gives him some sort of advantage. Except Vasquez is shooting 43% from long range, 3rd best in the ACC behind Eric Hayes and Malcolm Grant. Scheyer is well below him, shooting only 36.6%. Even White Stiff, who has struggled most of the season, is doing better than that. Vasquez makes 2.8 three-pointers a game, which is best the conference. Screamer is just behind him at 2.6. There are only two categories where Scheyer has an advantage over Vasquez. His assist/turnover ratio is slightly better (3rd best in the ACC as compared to 9th, but Hayes is better than both). Scheyer also has more steals per game than Vasquez. But even there, Scheyer is only 6th. Sean Mosley, who gets fewer minutes than the Screamer does, averages more steals per game.

There you have it. Even though I’d put good money on Scheyer winning the award because of the hate and xenophobia that Vasquez draws from the media (some of it deserved), there’s no way he deserves it at the halfway mark of the conference race. You could do a similar comparison with Landesberg. I could also easily argue Aminu and Lawal, even though they play different positions and a direct comparison really isn’t possible.

As for the game itself, Maryland seems to match up well with this team. Duke probably won’t have Thomas. Which means one of the Dumblees will start in his place. It actually looks as if both Dumblees will start, since the 7’1” alien has been on the short leash recently. So the frontcourt matchup will feature Milbourne and the suddenly-dominant Jordan Williams against a pair of Dumblees. I’m drooling at the idea of that.

The backcourt should be a little more even. With White Stiff and both Plumlees on the court, there isn’t enough speed from Dook to cover Vasquez, Hayes and Mosley. You can bet that Ratface will run the halfcourt hedge to at least slow Maryland down. If Clemson proved anything, it’s that the Terps can get flustered when they are pressured immediately upon crossing the timeline. Whichever Dumblee is forced to guard Milbourne will instantly be a mismatch that Maryland has to exploit. Milbourne MUST show up to this game. There cannot be any repeat performances from the one earlier in Littlejohn.

I can only assume that Hayes and Vasquez will switch up between the Screamer and Smith. As I said earlier, look for Gary to run both Mosley and Milbourne at White Stiff the same way he effectively ran both Byron Mouton and Chris Wilcox at the younger Dunleavy. The interior matchup will be determined by how the officials call it. If Jordan Williams is allowed to play, then he’ll be fine. If they let the Space Captain go over the back, let the Dumblees throw elbows, let White Stiff charge from half-court, then call ticky-tack fouls on Williams, obviously he’ll have no chance.

As for the bench and the coaching…well, both favor Maryland. The only thing Thomas provided was a slightly-warm body. Without him, Dook will play seven guys. The Bearded Alien and Andre Dawkins are the only ones coming off the bench. Dawkins is rarely let out of Ratface’s doghouse, so who knows how effective he’ll be. As I say every season, Ratface simply has no idea how to manage his rotation, and it will be Dook’s eventual downfall in March. He continues to recruit a billion All-Americans, but he has no idea how to use most of them. If Dook gets in foul trouble (I know it will never happen, just humor me), then where will Ratface turn? Smith, Screamer and White Stiff are all in the Top 5 of minutes played in the conference. You saw some of the effect it’s starting to have in the recent Duke-UNC snoozefest. The Dookies only managed to shoot 32% against one of the worst defenses in the country. I’m willing to bet most of that had to do with tired legs more so than Carolina’s D. Even with the upcoming schedule, Gary would be smart to let the Terps run up and down the court all day on these clowns.

Now, most reasonable fans will point to last year’s huge loss at Juan Dixon Stadium and figure that Maryland can’t possibly make up that much ground in one season. Well, the Dookies no longer have Sweet Elbows Henderson and the Terps no longer have to trot out Dave Neal at center. Dook has yet to replace Henderson’s output, while Maryland is getting three times the effort from Williams that they did from Neal. So that’s a huge step up in both directions for the Terps. The main reason Maryland lost that game in horrendous fashion was because of rebounding and second chance points. The Terps lost the battle on the glass 52-29. I can guarantee that won’t happen again this year.

Also, Maryland went to Durham last season struggling. Meanwhile, Dook was playing its best ball of the season. While Dook is currently playing well right now, they are nowhere near the 18-1 record they had last season. Maryland is playing, maybe even peaking too early, right now. This is a much different Maryland team confidence wise. Even over the course of last season, you could see Maryland making up the ground on Dook. After their beating in Durham, Maryland played even with Dook for 30 minutes at home just a month later. Only after the refs saddled Vasquez with foul trouble did Dook pull away. Then when they met in the ACC semifinals, Maryland played even with Dook for 35 minutes on a not-so-neutral court. Again, foul trouble helped Dook win by six. But confidence wise, Maryland has to feel like it’s back close to even ground with the Blow Devils.

The Floorslappers always play better at home than they do on the road. Something about all those uber-dorks and virgins reading cheer sheets gets this team all riled up. I’m sure they’ll be more dorked-out than usual with first place on the line. The Dookies haven’t lost at home all season, but this is still the same team that’s looked pedestrian on the road. Same players, same gameplan, just different colored uniforms. I still can’t get around the fact that Dook lost to NC State by 14. The same NC State team Maryland pummeled by 24 only three days later. This team is due for a loss at home, especially coming off a draining road win IN THE GREATEST RIVALRY IN MANKIND’S HISTORY (*forced by ACC blogger law to say that about any Carolina-Dook game, even though none of the sports fans I knew watched more than five minutes of it on Wednesday…more people actually watched the local hockey team than that supposedly big game). Then you add in the fact that Maryland has had six days of rest and a couple of extra days of preparation. Gary Williams, in his entire career, has lost only two conference games that he’s had six or more days to prepare for. That’s two games in 32 years. A lot of signs favor Maryland in this one. It will depend on how whistle-happy the refs are and how much the Terps have grown up from last season. No pick, just hoping for a Maryland win.


Elsewhere in the ACC…

After the weather allowed me to miss the midweek picks, I’m going to continue to mail it in. The picks, just the picks ma’am.

Clemson 75, Miami 61
UNC 80, NC State 69
Wake Forest 72, Georgia Tech 68
Virginia Tech 65, Virginia 58
Florida State 70, Boston College 60

The Predictor Top 25: 2/8/10

Here we go, the weekly rankings. Hoping to have the first bracket next week. 60-40 as to whether or not it actually happens. Until that time, there should be enough mock brackets out in the ether to keep you happy. And unlike ESPN’s ridiculous poll, no Ivy League teams will ever be included in the Top 25.

1. Kansas (22-1), LW-1: Really no surprise here. May stay at #1 even if they lose to Texas.
2. Villanova (20-2), LW-2: Loss at Georgetown no reason to knock this team down. Will have to beat WVU to stay this high.
3. Kentucky (22-1), LW-3: That really tough SEC schedule is going to keep them in the Top 5 for awhile.
4. Syracuse (23-1), LW-5: They have a backloaded Big East schedule. We’ll know more about this team after Valentine’s Day.
5. Purdue (19-3), LW-7: Moves up because everyone else lost. Certainly not because their win over Indiana was that impressive.
6. Kansas State (19-4), LW-8: While Rick Barnes continues to under-achieve with a talented Texas lineup, the Screamin’ Martins continue to over-achieve with role players.
7. West Virginia (19-3), LW-9: These guys are eventually going to have to show up to a first half. They keep falling behind by double-digits, their loss total is going to climb.
8. Michigan State (19-5), LW-3: Without Kalin Lucas, this team is in real trouble. Home game against Purdue coming at the wrong time.
9. Texas (19-4), LW-6: Right now the Longhorns don’t know if they should be an inside team or an outside team. Loss at Oklahoma isn’t bad, but it showed a lot of potential problems for this team down the road.
10. Georgetown (17-5), LW-11: Pains me to raise them in the rankings even though they lost to USF on Wednesday. Win against Villanova and everyone else crapping the bed helps.
11. Duke (19-4), LW-14: Devils shouldn’t be considered a real threat since they can’t put on a decent performance away from the Durham Dump.
12. New Mexico (21-3), LW-15: Move ahead of BYU for best of the non-BCS schools. I would not want to play this team in the NCAA Tournament.
13. BYU (22-3), LW-10: Here because of loss two weeks ago to New Mexico combined with their loss last week to UNLV.
14. Wisconsin (18-5), LW-20: With as much as I usually poke at the Badgers, I’ve been very impressed with what Bo Ryan has done this year. They were dominating Michigan State before Lucas got hurt.
15. Vanderbilt (17-5), LW-13: The loss to Georgia not as surprising as the way they lost. They were beaten soundly from almost the opening tip.
16. Tennessee (18-4), LW-17: Still not impressed with the Vols. Can almost guarantee a loss to Kentucky later in the week.
17. Gonzaga (19-4), LW-18: Good week for the Zags…comfortable win against Portland followed by a cross-country trek and easy win over Memphis.
18. Temple (19-4), LW-12: Richmond is good, but allowing eight three-pointers in the first half was sort of embarrassing.
19. Georgia Tech (17-6), LW-16: This team could easily be a Final Four sleeper or a first round flameout. As soon as they commit to getting the ball inside, they’ll be fine.
20. Texas A&M (17-6), LW-NR: Aggies have won five of the last six in the country’s best conference. Win over Baylor puts them slightly ahead of the Bears
21. Baylor (17-5), LW-19: Bears have gotten into the annoying habit of winning one then losing one. Their last three losses have been to Kansas, KSU and A&M, so there’s nothing wrong yet in Waco.
22. Northern Iowa (21-2), LW-24: Got revenge over Wichita State to give them a cushion in the Missouri Valley.
23. Ohio State (18-6), LW-NR: How this team is in the Top 15 in every major poll is beyond me. It’s a one player team. Without Evan Turner, they looked terrible. Since he’s come back, they’ve beaten a bunch of nobodies and lost to WVU. Another Big Ten fraud.
24. Wake Forest (16-5), LW-NR: The latest ACC team to make my rankings…only to lose sometime this week and fall out. Good win at Charlottesville deserves some praise.
25. Rhode Island (19-3), LW-NR: The Rams are the hottest team in the Atlantic-10. They’ve won four in a row. Figured I’d get on the bandwagon now with a big week on the horizon for Little Rhody. They host Richmond then travel to Temple.

Next 5: Butler, Pittsburgh, Maryland, UNLV, Florida State