Maryland Basketball: Malcolm In The Middle

Maryland Terrapins (20-7, 10-3 ACC) vs.
Virginia Tech Hokies (21-6, 8-5 ACC)
Cassell Coliseum – Blacksburg, VA

As the season heads down the backstretch of February and into March, there are several obvious points that need to be made about the Maryland Terrapins. No, I’m not going to sit here and opine on how good Greivis Vasquez is (even though he is 2nd in the ACC in scoring and 1st in assists and leads all guards in shooting percentage), since that would be too obvious. In no particular order:

1. The Maryland Terrapins should be ranked, regardless of what happens in this game. There is no way a sane college basketball fan can make the argument that Maryland isn’t one of the best 25 teams in the country. Everyone can point to the William & Mary loss, but half of the Top 25 own losses that are far worse than that one. What else is the problem? Quality wins out of the conference? Ok, fair enough I guess. But don’t wins against Clemson, Georgia Tech and two against Florida State begin to make up for that? Doesn’t a 10-3 conference record prove something? Here’s a history note, and I looked this one up to make sure: no 10-3 ACC team has EVER been unranked in the AP poll. How ridiculous are the polls? Miami has been ranked more recently than Maryland. Are the Terps a Top 15 team? Not yet. A Top 25 team? Certainly.

2. No team in the country, with the possible of exception of Kansas, is going to be happy to see Maryland in their bracket. Especially the higher seeds that are going to find Maryland in their sub-regional. Kansas is really the only team that could look at Maryland’s talent, experience and recent hot-streak and shrug their shoulders. Every other team is going to be at least slightly concerned about playing a team with a senior backcourt, a somewhat deep rotation and one of the greatest coaches in the game.

3. This is where I start to get critical a little. Maryland is going to lose somewhere in the NCAA Tournament. I have no grand delusion that this team can run the table. They are going to lose to a physical team that manages to muscle Vasquez out of the middle of the court and dominates Jordan Williams with two big forwards. Georgia Tech tried this approach, and it nearly worked. If Paul Hewitt wasn’t their coach and if Cliff Tucker didn’t happen to make one of the biggest shots in the last few years, the Jackets would have won (and probably handedly). Some of the possible higher seeds that really concern me (other than the obvious pair of Kansas and Kentucky) and Maryland could run into early: Michigan State, Pittsburgh and (gag me) Georgetown. Anyone really want to see Greg Monroe in a single-elimination game?

4. This kind of follows up with point #3. The solid team rebounding that took place earlier in the season has disappeared. Jordan Williams is doing his best, but he’s a freshman, he’s starting to wear down, and he’s getting little help from Dino Gregory and Landon Milbourne. Williams has done a good job shutting down opponents’ top rebounders, but Maryland has struggled to keep the secondary rebounders off the glass. The Terps effort on the boards against Georgia Tech and Clemson were worse that Canada’s effort at lighting their Olympic cauldron.

5. Milbourne is going to be the key to the postseason…either for good or for bad. Here’s what Milbourne has done in some of the tougher conference games this season:

FSU: 6-11, 13 pts, 7 rebs, 2 blks
@Wake: 5-15, 11 pts, 6 rebs
@Clemson: 1-8, 3 pts, 5 rebs, 2 blks
@FSU: 7-13, 18 pts, 6 rebs, 3 blks
@Duke: 1-6, 2 pts, 3 rebs, 2 blks
GTech: 2-11, 5 pts, 7 rebs, 2 blks
Clemson: 2-5, 8 pts, 1 rebs, 3 blks

As you can see, Milbourne has been all over the map the past six weeks, but he’s trending downward. Other than the two games against FSU, he hasn’t shown up when the team needed him most. You can see that his two worst outings came in losses. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. If it wasn’t for Williams, Tucker and Sean Mosley, Maryland would have lost their last two games. Maryland proved against Clemson that Vasquez can have an off-night shooting and still find a way to win. As good as Vasquez is, he needs help for Maryland to win consistently. Milbourne is the versatile threat that perfectly complements Vasquez. He has to be a senior leader and has to step up. Eight points and one board won’t cut it.

That’s how I see it right now. The team’s confidence levels are peaking. Vasquez is delivering a consistent performance every night. Even when he struggles to score (as he did against Clemson) he manages to dish out 13 assists. That’s an absurdly high amount for one game. I’ve seen plenty of college games where teams haven’t had 13 assists as a whole. Like I said above, it’s encouraging to see the rest of the team come to rescue when Vasquez isn’t scoring. It took them a half, but that’s why they play 40 minutes. There are a lot of good vibes around this team with a just a couple of ominous signs. I like the way they played in February, and they’ll get far in both the ACC and NCAA Tournament if they play the same way in March.

To Virginia Tech. The Hokies come in with at 21-6 overall, but looks can be deceiving. As the bubble watchers will tell you, Virginia Tech has one of the worst out of conference schedules imaginable. It may be historically bad. As of Friday, their out-of-conference schedule was ranked 339th in the country...out of 347 teams. Their four games against BCS conference schools came against teams who have no chance of even sniffing the tournament: Seton Hall, Iowa, Penn State and Georgia. Their only tough game away from the ACC came against Temple, a game that Tech lost easily. Other than that, their schedule included (in order): Brown, UNC-Greensboro, Campbell, Delaware (and the Hokies needed OT to win), VMI, Charleston Southern, UMBC, Longwood and North Carolina Central. Four of those teams are below 300 in the RPI. It is rare for a BCS school, especially one that has NCAA Tournament hopes, to play two teams that will finish sub-300 in the RPI. Tech has four on their schedule. Three more of those schools are between 250 and 300. This is just awful. Seth Greenberg is not even trying.

The ACC slate at least helped Tech bump their SOS to 138th in the country. That’s still dead last in the ACC, but it’s an improvement from 339th (Miami is the only other ACC team to have a SOS sub-100). For most of February, the Hokies were unbeatable. Just a week ago, Tech was riding a five-game winning streak. Since then, the Hokies lost to Duke and got blown out at Boston College. The loss to BC, while predictable (see my last post), was still embarrassing. The Hokies lost by 20, and the game really wasn’t that close. At 21-6, and 8-5 in the conference, Virginia Tech’s record is too good for the committee to ignore. But that loss to BC is going to start pushing Tech to the wrong side of the bubble. The Hokies finish with the Terps, NC State and at Georgia Tech. If they only beat NC State during that stretch, there is no way Virginia Tech should be allowed in the dance. I don’t care if they have 22 wins. I don’t care if they are above .500 in conference play. Better teams have been left out of the NCAA Tournament in the past. The committee must come down on Tech like they did in previous seasons on Syracuse. The committee has to force power conference teams to play at least three or four challenging non-conference games, or the non-conference schedule (and part of the regular season) becomes meaningless.

For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech is a two-man team. Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson are a good one-two punch, but that’s all Tech has. Delaney is a slasher more than a shooter, and his numbers bare that out. He’s been to the line 216 times; most in the ACC. He also shoots almost 85% from the stripe. This is typical of a player who takes it to the rim. However, for a guard, Delaney shoots a poor percentage from the floor (38%) and is even worse from three (30%). Keep him from driving, and he can be neutralized. I’ve seen Delaney several times this season. I know he averages 20 points a game. I’ve just never been impressed with him. He’s containable. Sean Mosley should be able to do a decent job on him.

Hudson worries me a little more. He tends to be streaky and his numbers are not as good as Delaney’s. But he’s a scrappy player. He makes several key hustle plays in every game. And since he’s streaky, he can be a perfect complement to Delaney. Maryland can’t afford to pay too much attention to him (Eric Hayes will probably be defending), so there’s a chance he chips in 14-18 points…which will be enough for Tech if Delaney is playing well.

Other than that, there isn’t much to worry about for Maryland. Jeff Allen is still in Blacksburg, but he’s regressed over the last couple of seasons. He’s averaging almost four fouls a game and can’t stay on the floor. Despite being the starting center/power forward, he’s only on the court for 25 minutes. All Maryland, and specifically Vasquez, has to do is go after him early. Tech is not deep (only seven guys average 10+ minutes), most notably inside. This may be one of the only teams in the conference that Maryland has an inside advantage against especially if Allen is in foul trouble. J.T. Thompson, Victor Davila and Terrell Bell will all see playing time, but none of them are good for much. The three of them only combine for 16 points and 13 rebounds in 68 minutes.

Honestly, I’m not sure how Tech has managed to win eight conference games. They only average 37 boards a game, and are well in the minus in rebounding margin (minus 4.1 in conference play to be exact). Over their last six games, Tech has only grabbed 57% of their opponents misses. That’s dreadful. That’s even worse than the Terps have been doing recently. The Hokies shoot 42% from the floor and 72% from the line. Both are good, but certainly not great. They only shoot 30% from beyond the arc. They average more turnovers (12.5 per) than assists (11.6 per). The only two things they do well is get to the free throw line and force turnovers. They are well above average defensively. Tech forces about 16 turnovers a game and their 7.3 steals per game is 2nd best in the ACC. However, with the exception of two conference games, Maryland doesn’t turn the ball over a lot…so that should negate that strength.

The Hokies are undefeated at home. Cassell Coliseum is a dump, but it can be a loud dump when it’s sold out. If Greenberg can convince enough of his students to stop paying attention to football recruiting, he should have no problem filling the small arena. That’s been a challenge as of late. I wouldn’t put too much stock into Tech’s 14-0 home record. They haven’t played too many good teams at Cassell. Of the top four teams in the conference (not counting Tech), the Hokies haven’t played Duke, Maryland or FSU at home. Their toughest home game so far came against Wake Forest. Wake outplayed Tech for most of that game, until Greenberg threw a zone at the Deacons and Dino Gaudio panicked. Their conference home wins have come against UNC, Miami, BC, UVA, Clemson and Wake. That’s not the strongest home slate, so like their overall record, don’t be fooled by the home record either.

This would be a good road win for Maryland, and would set up the game on Wednesday (against a team I dare not speak of yet) very nicely. Hopefully the Terps aren’t caught looking ahead. I'm sure Tech will be ready with their typical thug-antics from Allen and coaching from Greenberg. This Hokies team reminds me more and more of the mid-90's Bob Huggins Cincinnati teams. You know they are going to be athletic, and you know they are going to throw their fair share of elbows. The Hokies definitely have enough talent with Delaney and Hudson to jump up and bite Maryland if they aren't ready.

Maryland 73
Virginia Tech 66

Elsewhere in the ACC…

A nice 3-0 midweek record puts me at 41-14 for the season. That’s pretty darn good in the unpredictable ACC this year.

Boston College at Georgia Tech
If the Jackets find a way to lose this one, then they may not be headed for the NCAA Tournament. Paul Hewitt might also be headed to the unemployment line.
Pick: Georgia Tech 71, Boston College 57

North Carolina at Wake Forest
There’s a potential for an upset here, but I just don’t see the Tar Heels having an answer for both Aminu and Ish Smith. Plus, Wake has had a whole week to stew over their terrible loss to State.
Pick: Wake Forest 82, North Carolina 71

NC State at Miami
Picking this game is like picking a Raiders-Chiefs mid-December game. It’s pointless, and I can save a lot of time (both yours and mine) by not talking a lot about it.
Pick: Miami 68, NC State 61

Clemson at Florida State
Other than MD-Tech, this is the best of the week’s games. I’m feeling pretty good if I’m FSU about a tournament bid. Clemson, on the other hand, needs this one. They don’t desperately need this one, but they need this one. The Tigers showed some signs of life in College Park, but I fear their lousy 2nd half will carry over and cost them against a rested Seminoles team.
Pick: Florida State 77, Clemson 67

Duke at Virginia
Remember when I talked about what I would do if I were in charge of the ACC? I’d make every team play everyone else once before playing the five home-and-homes. This is an example of why. Duke managed to avoid UVA until the last week of February. If Duke played the Cavs in January or early February like everyone else did, then Virginia would have had a pretty good shot of beating them. Now that the Hoos are spiraling out of control, this is an easy win for the Dookies.
Pick: Duke 82, Virginia 65