NFL Week 8: There Is Something About Bruschi

As I’ve been doing all year on Thursdays, I will pick all the winners (or losers) this week in the NFL. I will pick straight up, and then pick with or against the spread. Since I deleted most of the previous posts, you’ll have to trust me when I say that my straight up pick record is 63-39 (61%). I do a bit worse against the spread, as I have gone 55-46-1.
The one change I am making is that I am no longer going to officially pick the Redskins games. I can’t in good conscious pick against the Redskins. I have decided that I will address the Redskins game every week in a separate column on Fridays. So come back tomorrow for that one.
The spread is based on Thursday, it obviously may change before the games on Sunday. Despite my success, please do not wager money solely based on these picks.

Green Bay Packers (1-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
So what did we learn about the Bengals following last week’s loss against Pittsburgh? This team is still not a serious contender until they beat a worthy opponent. In their two biggest games this season, the Bengals have come out flat and lost. In their Sunday night effort against Jacksonville, they let the Jags grab an early lead and control the game from start to finish. Their game against Pittsburgh was déjà vu. After an apparent Chad Johnson touchdown was ruled incomplete, and the subsequent field goal was no good, Cincinnati never recovered. Pittsburgh dominated the rest of the way.
So far Cincy’s wins have come against Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago, Houston and Tennessee. A real murderers row. Fortunately, the Bengals play Green Bay this week.
PICK: Bengals, but Green Bay covers

Chicago Bears (3-3) vs. Detroit Lions (3-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
It is a game for the top spot in the NFC North, featuring two teams that would struggle to win the Big Ten. So, how to pick between two mediocre teams? I have more confidence in the Bears horrible offense against the atrocious Lions defense, then I do in Jeff Garcia against a solid Bears secondary.
By the way, the Lions have one of the softest schedules in the league. If they can’t finish 8-8, heads should roll.
PICK: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (2-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-2)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
I have never seen ESPN make such a big deal about a 2-4 team. They’ve been showing Paul Edinger’s last second kick to beat Green Bay as if it were a playoff winner. ESPN has showed the replay on every SportsCenter this week at least once. Why is this?
The Panthers are coming off their bye week well rested. Jake Delhomme is back after his injury against Detroit before the bye. I don’t think Captain Smoot will be able to stop the Steve Smith show. Carolina rolls, Minnesota falls to 2-5, ESPN makes a big deal about the Vikings anyway.
PICK: Panthers win, Viks cover

Oakland Raiders (2-4)(-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-5)
1:00 p.m. Adelphia Coliseum
Lamont Jordan is starting to roll, Randy Moss is playing well despite not being healthy, the defense is actually playing better against the run, and the Titans lost to Arizona last week.
PICK: Raiders

Arizona Cardinals (2-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-3)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
The Cowboys should be 6-1. They should be in command of the NFC East. They should be licking their chops at a chance to get a struggling Cardinals team. But they’re not. For the second time this season, Bill Parcells watched his team collapse late in the fourth quarter. How in the world do you lose to Seattle when Shaun Alexander rushes for only 61 yards, and Matt Hasslebeck throws three picks? Embarrassing.
Now to this game. If it was in the desert, I may seriously consider the Cards. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald have terrific speed and should create trouble against the Dallas secondary (see Moss, Santana, 9/19/2005). The problem: Josh McCown will have a tough time finding his receivers when he has his back on the turf.
PICK: Cowboys

Cleveland Browns (2-4) vs. Houston Texans (0-6)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
The Texans are FAVORED???? HAHAHAHAHA…
PICK: Browns

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)(-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-4)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
This game, in my opinion, is the toughest one of the week to predict. On one hand, you have Jacksonville. Good quarterback, running back, receiving core and defense. They are also coming off the bye week. But, Fred Taylor is still banged up (Really, when is he not. It should be news when Fred Taylor is actually healthy.). Byron Leftwich hasn’t done anything special and still hasn’t had one of those games where everyone says, “Wow, this kid really is the quarterback of the future.” And that defense has been susceptible to long scoring drives from time to time.
Then, there are the Rams. A team that has lost its head coach (which, depending on who you ask, may be a positive) and their starting quarterback. But, St. Louis gets this one at home, where they are outstanding. Jamie Martin actually looks pretty good (35-50, 332 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT). And the new guy, Joe Vitt, actually wants to run the ball with Stephen Jackson and Marshall Faulk.
However, I think Jacksonville will stop the run, force Martin to beat them, and take advantage of a few turnovers.
PICK: Jaguars

Miami Dolphins (2-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-5)(-2)
4:00 p.m. Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA
The Man Upstairs (either God or the NFL replay official, your choice) clearly does not want the Saints to win. Their stadium was partially destroyed, forcing the Saints to become nomads. The NFL gave the Giants a gift ninth home game at the expense of New Orleans. They were on the wrong end of a 52-3 beating by Green Bay. And the last two weeks the Saints have lost on horrible calls by the refs. It stops becoming a coincidence at some point.
PICK: Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-4)(-6)
4:00 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Ok, it is possible to stop LaDainian Tomlinson. Too bad the Chiefs won’t be able to do it. Too bad for the Chargers that Marty Schottenheimer is their coach and there is no way they will be able to stop Priest Holmes. The Chiefs are really six point underdogs? I’m feeling an upset.
PICK: Chiefs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)(-11.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-5)
4:00 p.m. Monster/3-Com/Candlestick Park
Thanks to an injury to Brian Griese, Chris Simms is now the starting quarterback for Tampa. Currently, the thing Simms is best known for is being the son of former Giants quarterback and horrendous football commentator Phil Simms. When we last saw Chris, he was being benched and booed at the University of Texas. I saw how horrible Simms looked at UT. I will never pick a team led by Chris Simms. Not in a million years. Never….Wait, they’re playing the 49ers? Dammit.
PICK: Buccaneers (and yes, they’ll probably cover the double-digit spread…they’re playing the 49ers)

Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) vs. Denver Broncos (5-2)(-3.5)
4:00 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
For the second time this year, the Eagles snatched a victory from the jaws of defeat as they won last week on a blocked field goal return for a touchdown against San Diego (who, for the fourth time this year, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory). I just have a feeling the Eagles are going to implode sooner or later, with the emphasis on sooner. Donovan McNabb is suffering from a variety of injuries. I think this week it is the sports hernia, bruised abdomen, sore shoulder, twisted ankle, a scrape on his knee, a boo-boo on his pinky and he misses his mommy. Don’t worry, if I missed any, ESPN will fill you in as they keep a 24-7 eye on the health of Dinged-up Donovon. This McNabb-Owens thing still hasn’t boiled over yet (and it will, trust me). It has been way too quiet in Philly so far, look for problems in this feud in the next few weeks. Andy Reid refuses to run the ball. And this defense, which was marvelous last year, has looked average in most contests. They are especially weak against the run (although I’ll admit, they did an incredible job against LT last week).
Enter the tag-team duo of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson. They have carved up every D they have seen this year. Bell even broke some long runs against the Redskins 4th ranked defense. If they minimize the amount of chances Jake Plummer gets to make mistakes, and they tee-off on McNabb early and often, Denver should win.
PICK: Broncos, but Philly covers. I see a last second Jason Elam field goal to win it.

Buffalo Bills (3-4) vs. New England Patriots (3-3)(-9)
8:30 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Let me guess what the story line will be for this one. “Teddy Bruschi this, Teddy Bruschi that.” “Teddy Bruschi is so courageous.” “Teddy Bruschi means so much to the Patriots.” “Teddy Bruschi, Teddy Bruschi, Teddy Bruschi.” “Oh, did we mention Teddy Bruschi?”
I would just love to see Willis McGahee and the Bills run all over Teddy Bruschi. Chances are Bruschi won’t even play and that the Bills are going to lose anyway.
PICK: Patriots

MONDAY
Baltimore Ravens (2-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)(-10)
9:00 p.m. Heinz Field
The Steelers are going to win going away. It shouldn’t be close. Now, let me talk about the Ravens-Redskins fan “feud”.
I’ve gone months without discussing this, and I’ll probably dedicate a column to it later. Redskins fans DO NOT CARE about Baltimore. We concern ourselves with Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants. Why do the Ravens fans feel it necessary, now that their team and season is in the tank, to cling to hope that the Redskins will lose so they can feel better about themselves. Why not root against Pittsburgh or Cincinnati? As an Oriole fan, I root actively against the Yankees. But the Yankees and the Orioles are in direct competition with one another. The Redskins and Ravens play once every four years. It doesn’t make any sense. Now that that is somewhat over, I don’t want to hear anymore about Double Homicide Lewis, Drug Dealer Lewis, or Ugly Ed Reed anymore this season. Enough about this defense, the team is about to go 5-11.
PICK: Steelers

Reminder, come back tomorrow as I break down how the Redskins will beat the Giants.