Maryland Basketball: Bienvenidos a Miami

#14/12 Maryland Terrapins (11-2, 1-0 ACC) at
Miami Hurricanes (8-6, 0-1 ACC)
BankUnited Center – Coral Gables, FL

Finally, ACC basketball is underway. All 31 teams get their conference schedule going on this weekend. Sure that Virginia Tech-Florida State game may not remind you of the good ol’ days, but it’s certainly better than watching Maryland beat up on VMI and American.

So after nearly a month's long hiatus from playing any real competition, the Terps travel down South, and I mean way South, to visit Miami. Actually, they’re visiting Coral Gables, but you get the idea. Last year, in their first visit to the then named Convocation Center, Maryland played uninspired ball for 35 minutes before making a furious rally to send the game into overtime. With the game tied in overtime and the clock running out, Mike Jones committed a horrible foul directly underneath the hoop with 0.8 seconds left. Maryland lost by two.

The Terps come into this game with a different looking team. But one main problem still bothers Gary’s squad. Which player, with a game on the line, is going to score the crucial points? Which player, if necessary, is going to take a game over? Sure, Maryland has a 10-man rotation, complete with two serviceable backup point guards and tons of height coming off the bench. But who is going to step up in crunch time. Last year, that player was supposed to be John Gilchrist. That, of course, was before he flipped out like Tom Cruise visiting Oprah. It left Maryland without the big-time scorer. Gary was left with a bunch of talented role players.

After having the entire offseason to fix the problem, Gary finally found his go-to-guy. Oh wait, did I say found? I meant still hasn’t found his go-to-guy. Nice coaching job. Sure, Chris McCray is a nice scorer. He looks like he is turning the corner and taking leadership over this team. But McCray is a senior, and we’ve been saying that about him for the past three years. There are plenty of games when McCray appears hesitant to take wide open shots and disappears in the second half. Travis Garrison is too inconsistent. D.J. Strawberry isn’t a scorer. Ekene Ibekwe has played very well this season, but he is still a walking foul waiting to happen. Mike Jones and James Gist are fine backups off the bench, but neither has the ability to take over a big game. Which only leaves Nik Caner-Medley. And like McCray, we are still waiting for Caner-Medley to have that stretch of games after which his team rallies around him. It hasn’t happened yet. Sure he’s posted big numbers against VMI and Texas A&M-CC, but he is almost non-existent in games against decent opponents. And sure that 13 points and six rebounds a game looks great. But take a closer look at the stat lines. I’ve broken down Nik’s games this year against Gonzaga, Arkansas, Minnesota, GW and Boston College into one group. Compare those stats against the group that feature his stats from the other games against weaker competition.

Against the big boys: 8.6 pts/g (34.7% FG), 4.6 r/g, 2.4 a/g, .75 a/t
Against the small kids: 15.5 pts/g (59.7% FG), 6.4 r/g, 2.2 a/g, 1.28 a/t

So there you have it. Nik averages less than 9 points a game against a team with any talent. His shooting percentage is way down, his rebounds are way down, and his assist to turnover ratio is much worse. He is the ultimate paper champion. He looks great against smaller teams, but he folds in the big game against a challenge. And Maryland plays enough of the small schools during the regular season so his stats look good to the average fan. And for one moment, just forget the stats. As a Maryland fan, can you remember the last time that Caner-Medley came up big against Duke, or Wake Forest, or UNC or Georgia Tech? You can’t. In those wins against Duke, it was Jones, Ibekwe and Garrison that had big games. In the home game against UNC, it was McCray that kept the game close. Heck, where was Nik in those losses to Clemson, Miami and Virginia Tech last season? I want to see Nik succeed. I really do. Just show up, buddy. Stop getting into bar fights in Portland and play big in a big game. Just once. Then I’ll get off your back.

This game really doesn’t count as a big game for the Terps. This is one they should win whether Caner-Medley shows up or not. Miami was supposed to be the trendy sleeper pick in the offseason. And while The U hasn’t had any horrible losses (Louisville, Florida, at NC State, at Michigan, at Temple and at Air Force), they haven’t had any wins that make you sit up and take notice. Their 8-6 record is about what I figured they would have at this point. Their next four games will be the telling sign of whether or not their season is going anywhere. Three of the next four are at home, with a road trip to UNC thrown in. The Canes need to win three of these games to have any hope of competing in the ACC.

This Miami team has a couple of good players, but no one that a team should lose sleep over. Guillermo Diaz is the one guy Maryland must keep tabs on all game. He averages 16 a game. He can shoot outside and he can drive from the perimeter. But, like Caner-Medley, Diaz has a tendency to shy away in big games. In the game against Louisville, Diaz scored the same amount of points that I did (that would be zero). However, unlike most talented guards that Maryland will face this season, Diaz is taller, and more physical than Strawberry. Which means that Caner-Medley may have to guard Diaz. If that’s the case, look for Strawberry to stick on Robert Hite. Hite had a field day against the Terps last season because the defense was obsessed with stopping Diaz. Strawberry didn’t play in that game obviously, so he could be the difference in stopping Hite. If Strawberry succeeds, The U becomes a one-man show featuring Diaz.

The Canes play a three-guard lineup. Along with Diaz and Hite, Anthony Harris and Denis Clemente split time at the other guard position. Together, they would make a really good player. Unfortunately, their individual stats are average at best. In the frontcourt, Anthony King will be the man for the Terps to stop. King averages 10 and 8 a game. He has solid footwork inside and runs the floor well. Look for Gary to use a rotation of big men to guard him. Usually the best defense for King is the Miami offense. The Canes only look inside occasionally, as they live and die by the outside shot. King gets most of his points off putbacks and free throws. Gary Hamilton is the other forward. He was just recently inserted into the starting lineup after freshman Jimmy Graham struggled early in the season. Graham is a very talented youngster, but he is going to need another year to mature to be effective in the ACC.

Look for Maryland to come out uninspired and flat in the first half. The Convocation Center, or whatever they’re calling it, is usually ¾ full, and Maryland struggles when there is low energy in a building, even on the road. Plus, I’m sure Maryland will be looking ahead at the schedule a little bit. Everyone knows where they play on Wednesday (if you don’t, then come back Wednesday and find out). Gary will fire them up at halftime, the game will be close for about 30-32 minutes, and Maryland will pull away in the end. But you never can assume an easy win on the road in the ACC. So don’t be shocked if Miami squeaks one out.

Maryland 82
The U 73

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Hey, so far I’m 4-0 picking ACC games this year. Let’s try and keep that goose egg in the loss column.

Saturday
Clemson at Virginia
When in doubt, take the home team. When you're really in doubt, don’t take the Tigers
Virginia 67, Clemson 62

NC State at North Carolina
The first conference test for the defending champs. This should give us a good barometer on the Heels. We’ll find out if all those pups can play big time basketball. Going with UNC because I don’t think the Pack are for real.
UNC 74, NC State 68

Virginia Tech at Florida State
To be honest, I haven’t watched FSU play this season. But I know Tech took Duke to the brink in a game they should have won. They should be able to get the W at the TLC Civic Center.
Virginia Tech 75, FSU 65

Sunday
Boston College at Georgia Tech
Sunday features two interesting matchups. Boston College gets their second chance to get a road victory in a tough place to play. They were close against Maryland. I like the senior laden squad on the road. Craig Smith scores at least 22 points in this one.
Boston College 81, Georgia Tech 68

Duke at Wake Forest
The Williams brothers cancel each other out underneath. And despite Duke having the poet laureate on the outside, I like the supporting cast of Wake a lot better than Ratface’s motley crew. Also, having broadcasted games at The Joel, it gets very loud and is an incredibly tough place to play with the Freakin’ Deacons screaming for 40 minutes. I’ll be wearing my tie-dye shirt on Sunday.
Wake Forest 85, Duke 82