NFL Week 17: In Through The Out Door

Week 17 means this is the last time I have to pretend to analyze all 15 games. And it’s kind of a dull week too. All season long, it looked like there would be three or four teams from each conference fighting for the last playoff spot. Instead, there are only a few meaningful games. It seems most teams are playing their way into the playoffs by waiting for other teams to lose. That’s what the Steelers have done. That’s what the Panthers are doing. Sadly, the Redskins are guilty of this also. But here are the picks, as I look to finish out the year strong. After a rough 9-6 week (8-6-1 against the spread), my records are:
Overall: 156-75 (67%)
Spread: 134-92-6
As always, please do not wager based solely on these picks.

SATURDAY:
Denver Broncos (12-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-7)(-11)
4:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
At first glance, the spread would shock most football fans. But Denver has clinched the second seed in the AFC and cannot overtake Indianapolis for the top spot. So they will be resting some, if not most, of their starters. The Fightin’ Marties surprised everyone by not even making the playoffs this season despite a glut of talent that most coaches would love to have. Bye-bye Marty.
Pick: Chargers, Broncos cover

New York Giants (10-5)(-9.5) at Oakland Raiders (4-11)
8:00 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
I’m stunned. The Giants lost on the road in embarrassing fashion last week. Who could have predicted that? With that said, I’m going to go against my own advice and take the G-men on the road this week. I’ve been saying all year long that the Giants can’t beat a mediocre team on the road. Oakland is not mediocre. They are dreadful. But it wouldn’t amaze me if the Raiders pulled out this one, especially with the Giants defense banged up like it is. I’ll certainly be rooting for the Silver and Black.
Pick: Giants, Raiders cover.

SUNDAY
Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at Indianapolis Colts (13-2)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
It’s funny. Two weeks ago, the Colts would have been favored by at least two touchdowns. Ah, what apathy will do to the Las Vegas line.
Pick: Colts

Baltimore Ravens (6-9)(-3) at Cleveland Browns (5-10)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Don’t look now, but Kyle Boller actually resembles an NFL quarterback. And in other news, Hell is reporting their first snowstorm of the season.
Pick: Ravens

Buffalo Bills (5-10)(-1) at New York Jets (3-12)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Starting for the Jets at quarterback this week: Boomer Esiason. Joe Namath is the emergency quarterback if anything should happen.
Pick: Jets

Carolina Panthers (10-5)(-4) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Oh no! What is the NFL going to do? Michael Vick won’t be in the playoffs. Should they cancel the postseason? Will anyone bother to watch? Why would they with the NFL’s most electric player sitting at home? The horror…THE HORROR…
Pick: Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
This will probably be the most entertaining game of the week. The Chiefs are still alive for a wildcard position if they win and Pittsburgh were to lose (more on the near impossibility of that in a moment). The Bengals find themselves in an interesting position. If they win, they clinch the third seed in the AFC. That would mean they most likely face the Steelers (or even these Chiefs) at home in the first round. Not much of an incentive. If they lose and New England wins, the Bengals will be the fourth seed and get a home game with Jacksonville. If I’m Cincinnati, this is the match up I would want. Plus, Kansas City at home this late in the season is nearly impossible to beat.
Pick: Chiefs

Detroit Lions (5-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Now you see why Kansas City won’t be making the playoffs
Pick: Steelers

Miami Dolphins (8-8) at New England Patriots (10-5)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Miami has been very impressive this season. I’ll say it again now (and next year as well); the Dolphins will be next year’s darkhorse team. They may even win the division. This year still belongs to New England however.
Pick: Patriots

New Orleans Saints (3-12) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
How have the Bucs not clinched a playoff spot? Even if Carolina, Washington and Dallas all win, and Tampa somehow loses to New Orleans, wouldn’t they still hold the tiebreaker over at least two of those teams? Am I missing something here? The point is moot anyway.
Pick: Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks (13-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-12)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Now I dislike Brett Farve as much as the next guy. But how can you logically pick against him in what should be the last home game of his career against a team that is resting most of their starters. You can’t. By the way, if you don’t think the NFL schedule is fixed, look at this game. You got the Seahawks, coached by Farve’s old buddy Mike Holmgren, visiting in his final game. It’s like a sitcom’s series finale where all the role players come back to pay their respects with a cameo appearance. You think this was an accident? I’m telling you; the NFL fixes their schedule better than any other league (exhibit B: the Giants getting 21 home games this season).
Pick: Packers

Tennessee Titans (4-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)(-3.5)
4:05 p.m. Alltell Stadium
The Jags finally finish their out-of-conference schedule that consisted of American, Delaware State, VMI, the 49ers and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Look at the playoffs like Jacksonville’s conference schedule, with a rude wake up call waiting for them.
Pick: Jaguars

Houston Texans (2-13)(-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers (3-12)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
All right, I really had some good analysis ready for this game. I really did. Honest. But then the 49ers went and beat St. Louis last week. Then Domanick Davis got hurt and won’t play. And now the race for the first pick is all screwed up and could come down to that strange strength of schedule (college football-esque) tiebreaker. And then I lost my train of thought and my notes and I’m just going to make a pick.
Pick: Texans

Chicago Bears (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-7)(-4)
4:15 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
…the cruise ship sailed into the sunset, and they all lived happily ever after.
Pick: Bears

St. Louis Rams (5-10) at Dallas Cowboys (9-6)(-12.5)
8:30 p.m. Texas Stadium
This game could mean everything or nothing to Dallas. They will know by the time they play if they are still in the playoff race, or if Carolina and Washington eliminated them. This game means nothing to the Rams, who were eliminated a long time ago when NASCAR crew-chief Joe Vitt took over as coach.
Pick: Cowboys, Rams cover

Tomorrow: Redskins-Eagles preview. Can the ‘Skins sweep the series? Can they make the playoffs for the first time since 1999? Is this just a dream? Will the Eagles be able to field a 53-man team? Will FOX stop showing the stupid Donovan McNabb commercials? Will I stop asking questions? Maybe…find out tomorrow.