Maryland Basketball: After Death, The ACC Post-BC

#23/23 Maryland Terrapins (9-1, 0-0 ACC) at
Boston College Eagles (5-2, 0-0 ACC)
Conte Forum - Chestnut Hill, MA

So the Terps were brought back down to Earth a bit after their ugly performance against Notre Dame. It was kind of predictable. Maryland never plays well in the BB&T. Notre Dame was a team that could hit threes. Maryland has been surrendering good shots to opponents who weren’t hitting them. It was just a matter of time.

The Irish became the first team all season to make Maryland pay for their defensive lapses on the perimeter, hitting clutch shot after clutch shot in the second half. Maryland got up eight, looked like they were going to pull away, then stopped moving in their offense. They looked for the kill shot from outside, but all it translated to were poor outside shots. The outside misses allowed Notre Dame to avoid the press because Maryland didn’t have time to set it up. That led to a lot of open Irish on their own perimeter in transition. Maryland couldn’t locate the outside shooters. And Notre Dame hit their shots. It all boiled down to Maryland looking like the Maryland of the past few season. Rushed shots on one end, getting torched by threes on the other.

That game was a week ago, it’s time to forget about it. However, I think it’s safe to say that Maryland fans no longer want to see their team playing at the Verizon Center unless Georgetown is their opponent. Which will never happen apparently. So no more trips to D.C. in the future please.

Maryland recovered Wednesday with a comfortable win over Fordham, a half decent Atlantic-10 team. It was close for the first 10 minutes until Mike Jones got hot. Barring something really unforeseen, Maryland will not lose again out of conference. So the Terps should be 14-1 before ACC play. That includes wins over St. John’s, Michigan State and Illinois. It also will include wins against decent mid-majors like Vermont, Fordham, Winthrop and Siena. If Maryland goes 8-8 in conference and wins a game in the ACC tournament, they’re in the NCAA tournament easily.

Even though we haven’t reached the winter solstice, Maryland gets ready to attack that conference schedule with a trip to the ACC’s North Pole. You like watching Boston College? Well good, you better enjoy it Sunday because it will be another year before we see them again. There’s you expansion at work for you, the fan! Ruining ACC scheduling since 2004.

Boston College had last year’s impressive season end in the Sweet 16 against a Villanova team that they outplayed. Since then, they lost their all-everything forward Craig Smith to graduation. It doesn’t appear as if BC has recovered since his departure.

Boston College has already lost to Vermont (the same Vermont team Maryland blew out of the Comcast Center) and to a Providence team that will finish at or very near the bottom of the 44-team Big East. BC managed to fight to an ugly win over Michigan State at home. Maybe their most impressive win came at UMass last week. Otherwise, their resume is a bit weak so far. They will travel to Kansas in two weeks before going back to their ACC schedule.

The reason that BC isn’t winning is their outside shooting. The Eagles were not a good outside team last season, but with Smith inside, it didn’t matter. Now, without the easy option on the low post, Boston College’s three-point shooting has yet to compensate. The Eagles, as a team, are shooting 27.7% from beyond the arc. That’s abysmal. I watched most of their game against MSU, and I still can’t figure out how they beat the Spartans while shooting around that percentage from three. You can’t win games with that kind of percentage.

Despite the poor outside shooting, Boston College has averaged almost 75 points a game. That is a respectable total. But in their two losses and their close win against MSU, the Eagles only averaged 64 points. That’s a large difference. That’s even less than Duke’s powerhouse offense this season. BC still tries to muscle the ball inside to their remaining stars. Jared Dudley and Sean Marshall are still in Chestnut Hill and still putting up big numbers. Dudley is almost averaging a double-double every time on the court. He puts in 19 points and 9.3 boards a game along with four assists, two steals and a block. Even with BC’s poor outside percentage, Dudley is 41.2% on his threes and shoots a robust 58%. 58% is impressive for most players, and it’s even more impressive considering that Dudley does take a considerable number of outside shots.

Dudley’s numbers are slightly up from last year. In fact, most of BC’s averages are right where they were last season. Marshall, Tyrese Rice, Sean Williams and John Oates have nearly identical numbers in 2005 and so far in 2006. The big problem is no one has made up for the numbers that Smith took with him to the NBA. Obviously no one player on BC is going to suddenly turn into Craig Smith, but the eight-men rotation for the Eagles all have to raise their numbers a little to equal Smith’s output. Dudley has done that. The rest of the team has not.

Rice is scoring a bit more than he did last season, putting up almost 14 a game, but he’s turning the ball over a lot more than he did last season with more than three per game. As BC’s point guard, his lone responsibility is to get the ball inside. The additional scoring is nice, but not exactly what Al Skinner is looking for from his point. The 1.6/1 a/t ration is not good, and another reason for BC’s slow start. Williams has seen his scoring stay steady at 11 a game, but his rebounding numbers have really disappeared. For a 6-10 center with a vertical like Williams, 4.8 rebounds a game isn’t going to cut it. Marshall scores 13.3 a game, but his rebounding numbers are also down to 4.6. Smith’s scoring is missed, but the fact that Marshall and Williams can’t pick up his rebounding slack is hurting more.

Marshall is one of four shooters who continue to hurt BC from the outside. Dudley is the only player who is above, or even close to that 40% three-point shooting goal. The other four shooters who have attempted a three aren’t hitting. Marquez Hayes (33%), Marshall (31%), Rice (22.5%) and Big Awkward White Guy John Oates (20%) are killing BC right now. BC, like Maryland, struggles to back into their defense after missed threes. So when BC can’t hit shots, they can’t stop the other team from hitting shots. So it’s not just a missed shot, it’s a five-point swing almost every time they miss a three. And they miss a lot.

For Maryland, the ball-handling, which seemed great up to about the midway point of the Illinois game, must get back to where it was early in the season. I’ve given up all hope of Maryland every being a truly great team when it comes to protecting the ball, but giving it up over 20 times a game is unacceptable. That’s a turnover every two minutes. Like BC’s 27% three-point shooting, you’re not going to win a lot of conference games with those numbers. Eric Hayes appears to be losing his magic touch when it comes to distributing. He disappeared against the Illini and Irish and had his worst game of the season against Fordham. Too many turnovers, not enough set ups for scoring plays. In other words, Hayes is finally playing like the freshman he is. He was playing out of his mind against MSU and St. John’s and got everyone excited. Expect more of this through the season. You’re going to see Hayes have some great games, probably at the most unexpected time, and he’s going to have plenty of bad games against bad ACC teams that will make some other games closer than they should be. Just be prepared for it.

Expect to see Greivis Vasquez at point guard more. He’s been playing the two and three a lot this season, but I think you are about to see more of him at point. Boom Osby continues to dominate, and as long as he stays out of foul trouble, he will continue to have a great season. The pressure is on Ekene Ibekwe to perform or he is going to start losing minutes.

Against Boston College, Maryland has got to make sure they don’t give up too many easy transition points. Don’t let the Eagles terrible shooters get into a groove by giving them easy transition threes. Make BC settle into their half-court offense. When they get in their half-court offense, make sure there is always back-side help for the multitude of forwards that Skinner will throw at the Terps. Make BC beat you with threes in their half-court offense. On the other end, it’s going to be tough going inside for Maryland. Please try to limit the number of off-balance drives and inside shots. Mike Jones should have a height advantage. Get him the ball early and let him get in rhythm. Force BC’s big men to come outside to guard Jones and Vasquez. That should be the only way Maryland can get easy shots inside. I’m sure Gary will have the team ready for a matchup against his former school and for ACC play. Look for Maryland’s new chemistry to help them to a close road win.

Maryland 68
Boston College 64

Sunday, December 17th
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech
A lot of people were talking about VTech challenging for a tournament birth. They had the majority of their starters back, so why not, right? Well, in the previous three years, those starters have done nothing. Wake Forest, on the other hand, will be as bad as everyone is predicting. The likelihood of either of these teams making the tournament is slim.
Pick: Virginia Tech 70, Wake Forest 58