NFL Week 4: Houston Is Giving Me Problems

I continue to do well overall, but lousy against the spread. After an 11-4 week, I’m now 29-16 overall. But after an 8-7 against the spread, that record now stands at 23-22. Ugh.

SUNDAY

Baltimore Ravens (3-0) vs. New England Patriots (2-1)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Ravens opponents combined record: 2-7. Let’s everyone settle down before anointing them as the best team in the NFL. They haven’t played New England, Indy, Minnesota or Pittsburgh yet. I don’t care how lousy the Steelers may be, they have the Ravens number.
Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (0-3)(-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
1:00 p.m. Alltel Stadium
Only five teams that have started 0-3 have ever made the playoffs. With games against Indianapolis and New England coming up, it doesn’t look like Tennessee will be the sixth.
Pick: Jaguars

Oakland Raiders (1-2) vs. Houston Texans (1-2)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
“Every season, there is one team that I can never predict. I think the Texans are going to be that team this season.”

That’s what I said last week, and now I’m 0-3 when it comes to picking the Texans. I’d better get this one right.
Pick: Texans

Detroit Lions (1-2) vs. Chicago Bears (2-1)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Ugh, pass. Still too soon. I’ll deal with this later in the week.
Pick: Bears

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)(-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
As bad as Tampa has looked, they’ve at least played a brutal opening schedule and managed to keep two of their three games close. No one in the NFL has looked as bad as Cleveland, losing their games by 14, 21 and 31. Those point differentials are no flukes. The Browns have looked every bit as bad as those stats suggest. Look for those numbers to continue throughout the season.
Pick: Bengals

New York Giants (3-0)(-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
The Chiefs continue their long march to 0-5 (maybe 0-6…but that depends on that sixth team still existing by the time that game comes around). I picked KC to finish around .500 this season, but I did so assuming that Larry Johnson still had another 1,100 to 1,200 yards in his legs. He may not have 200 yards left in him.
Pick: Giants

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-0)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
I’ll give the Seahawks credit. They managed to hang around last week with Seneca Wallace as their quarterback. They would have won that game if not for some shody field goal kicking. Nonetheless, that was last week. They were at home for a 4:15 start. They were playing the Bears (who the jury is still very much out on). Much different story this week.
Pick: Colts

New York Jets (3-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-0)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
You know your offense is good when you put up 27 points on the road and the media says you “struggled”. So yeah, the Saints offense is very, very good. Futhermore, it appears that Sean Payton found a defense in the offseason. Holding Buffalo to only seven points in decent weather is very impressive.
Pick: Saints

Buffalo Bills (1-2)(-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-3)
4:05 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
I may not have gotten a lot right during my preseason predictions, but my prediction that Miami would come back down to Earth couldn’t have been more right on the money. Now the Dolphins have to deal with a pissed off Bills team that gets Marshawn Lynch back this week, and Miami’s starting quarterback is now Chad Henne. I’m confused as to why the line is so low.
Pick: Bills

St. Louis Rams (0-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
I’ll tell you what, I now believe the 49ers are a legit threat to win the NFC West. They proved more to me in their loss against Minnesota than in either of their wins this season. A win here, and the 49ers are already 3-0 in the division, and their toughest remaining division game is at home. Naturally, they’ll make me look stupid and barely squeak by the Rams.
Pick: 49ers, Rams cover

Dallas Cowboys (2-1)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (3-0)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
No one, and I mean NO ONE, is buy the Broncos 3-0 start. They had the miracle against Cincinnati, followed by two easy wins over Cleveland and Oakland. There’s a reason that the average Cowboys are favored on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to play in.
Pick: Cowboys

San Diego Chargers (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)(-6)
8:20 p.m. Heinz Field
It’s desperation time for Pittsburgh. I knew the Steelers wouldn’t repeat as Super Bowl champs, but they look completely uninterested. There is no way the Steelers teams from the past would have blown an 11-point 4th quarter lead against Cincinnati.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY

Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-0)(-3.5)
8:30 p.m. Metrodome
Lost in the frantic finish against San Francisco are a lot of truths the media loves to gloss over. First, Brett Favre’s “amazing” last second touchdown throw was in reality a terrible throw that his receiver bailed him out on. And secondly, if Favre didn’t play so poorly during the rest of the game, then the Vikings would never have needed a last second touchdown throw…they would have won the game handedly. Minnesota will get theirs eventually, but it won’t be against over-rated Green Bay.
Pick: Vikings

Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia