NFL Week 17: Jet-Setting To A Golf Course

With the Redskins preview slated for later this week, we say goodbye to 17 other teams in this post. Last week I was 10-5 overall and 8-7 against the spread. Here are the season stats:

Overall: 154-71 (68%)
Vs. Spread: 120-100-5

SUNDAY

Indianapolis Colts (14-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-10)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
Clearly Vegas is under the impression that the Colts won’t play their starters much or at all. I tend to believe they’ll see at least a half of action, especially after last week’s debacle against the Jets. Plus, are the Colts’ backups really that much worse than the Bills’ starters?
Pick: Colts

New Orleans Saints (13-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (7-8)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Again, Vegas doesn’t have much faith in Sean Peyton playing his starters. But knowing how Peyton likes to coach, I would expect the Saints to actively try to win this game…much more so than the Colts will.
Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) vs. Cleveland Browns (4-11)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Jack Del Rio appears to be on his way out in Jacksonville while Eric Mangini appears to have saved his job in Cleveland with a three-game winning streak. Yes, the Browns have a three-game winning streak. What a bizarre way for them to end the year.
Pick: Jaguars

Chicago Bears (6-9)(-3) vs. Detroit Lions (2-13)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Chicago did everyone a favor and helped put another dent in the Brett Favre armor. Other than that, it’s been a dreadful season in the Windy City. They are easily the NFC’s most disappointing team of the year.
Pick: Bears

New England Patriots (10-5) vs. Houston Texans (8-7)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
The Texans finally lived up to expectations last week with their beat down of the Dolphins in an important game for both teams. Too bad they waited until Week 16 to show up.
Pick: Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)(-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
1:00 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
I don’t pretend to know all the permutations of the AFC playoff picture at this point. I know that Pittsburgh will need some help to get in. I’m willing to bet if they win this game, than either the Ravens or Jets will stumble. The Steelers have a feel of a dangerous playoff team…they just need to get in first.
Pick: Steelers

New York Giants (8-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (11-4)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
We say goodbye to 17 teams and the Redskins this week. But we might as well be saying goodbye to the Vikings as well. This team is dead on its feet right now. I doubt they’d be able to win a playoff game unless it’s against Green Bay. As for the Giants: I hope their fans enjoyed two Monday’s ago. I enjoyed last Sunday.
Pick: Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (7-8)(-7) vs. St. Louis (1-14)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I can’t believe there are plenty of rumors about Mike Singletary’s job security. He’s made a hopeless team somewhat respectable again. I could see if on New Year’s Eve 2010 the 49ers are still barely floating around .500, then Singletary could get the axe. But not this season.
Pick: 49ers

Atlanta Falcons (8-7)(-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-12)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
As I predicted, the Falcons will finish around .500 and miss the playoffs. But give Atlanta credit. Anyone with a brain could see that they would come down to Earth this season, but they didn’t stagger to a 5-11 or 6-10 finish. This team will be back next year, and may even be the favorite to win the division.
Pick: Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (10-5)(-3)
4:15 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
One of three regular season finales that could be replayed next week in the first round of the playoffs. If Dallas wins, they’ll probably get the Eagles next week at this very stadium. Of course, that would mean they’d have to win a huge January game. In other words: don’t count on it.
Pick: Eagles

Green Bay Packers (10-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-5)(-3)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Another matchup that we could next week as well. The Packers are locked into the 5th or 6th seed, so it really doesn’t matter what they do. The Cardinals could still potentially get a first round bye. They’ll be playing their starters, while Green Bay will likely be resting theirs.
Pick: Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs (3-12) vs. Denver Broncos (8-7)(-13)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
Yes, the Broncos will win and finish six games better than I expected them to. However, they probably will be on the outside looking in for the playoffs.
Pick: Broncos, Chiefs cover

Baltimore Ravens (8-7)(-10) vs. Oakland Raiders (5-10)
4:15 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
So the Ravens will win by 20-27 points. Everyone will start sweating them again, just like they did after crushing Detroit and Chicago. Then they’ll go into the playoffs, commit 10+ penalties and turn the ball over at the most inopportune times. Let’s just get it over with already.
Pick: Ravens

Tennessee Titans (7-8)(-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-10)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
What, you don’t want to hear more about this game? Really? Alright, your loss.
Pick: Titans

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) vs. New York Jets (8-7)(-10)
8:20 p.m. Giants Stadium
Oh c’mon…you think the Jets are really going to win this game? My friend who is a Jets fan was so willing to pick against her team, she was going to put considerable money against the Jets. She’s so convinced they are going to blow it, and ruin all the breaks they’ve caught the last few weeks. You know what? She’s right.
Pick: Bengals

Cowboys at Redskins: Once You Learn To Quit, It Becomes A Habit

Dallas Cowboys (9-5) vs. Washington Redskins (4-10)
8:20 p.m. FedEx Field
There are things that Redskins fans have to face about last Monday’s game. The Redskins, as a whole, gave up. I’m not saying every player quit on the team. But the majority did. The entire secondary quit. The receiving corps quit. Most of the offensive and defensive lines quit. Most of the coaching staff quit. It’s embarrassing. That’s all there really is to say.

Now is it the most embarrassing loss this season for an NFL team like Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden would have you believe. No. I think the Tennessee loss to New England will take the distinction for 2009. It wasn’t even the most embarrassing loss of the year for the Redskins. I’d argue that the losses to Detroit and Kansas City were much worse, since the they were still meaningful games at the time. But make no mistake about it, that game was brutal. At home, against a division rival, on national tv…yikes. I’m actually proud to say I watched the entire game. When the team eventually bounces back, the fans who forced themselves to sit through that mess can say they were there when things hit rock bottom. The team may have quit, but I didn’t.

Most of the attention has been focused on the fake field goal at the end of the first half. The more I watched that play, and the more I thought about it, it was actually a decent call that was executed horrendously. I’m not really here to defend the execution, but more so to defend the decision. It was 24-0. A field goal, if Graham Gano converts, makes it 24-3. Ok, big deal. “Experts” have argued that the Redskins needed some kind of momentum going into the half. Would a field goal to make the deficit 21 really have made any difference? I highly doubt it. Conversely, if the Redskins try the fake, get a touchdown, and know they have the ball first in the 2nd half, a successful TD would have actually changed some of the momentum. That’s why the play was called in the first place.

The design of the play was pretty good as well. Watch the whole play. The Redskins weren’t trying to throw the ball to the left side of the field where there were six Giants players. The play was designed to go to Todd Yoder. Yoder was the center on the play, and he was supposed to slip to the right side of the field unguarded after the snap and a chip block. The majority of the team on the left side, and Malcolm Kelly going across the field to the left side, was supposed to distract the Giants defense. And it worked! The only Giant covering Yoder on the play was a backup linebacker. Unfortunately, neither Yoder or Kelly chipped their defender. So instead of one Giant having a free rush at Hunter Smith, three Giants had a clean shot. If Yoder and Kelly chip their men, then Smith can roll right, has Yoder one-on-one with a linebacker, and an empty field to lob the ball in. Since Smith had no time, he panicked and lobbed the ball to the left side. He knew he’d have two receivers near the endzone, but of course, half the Giants defense was already there as well. Again, it obviously wasn’t executed correctly. But take another look at the design of the play before you start saying how massively retarded it was. Also remember that this team has executed two other fake kicks this season for touchdowns. The one against Denver basically won the Redskins the game. Neither one of the successful plays got close to the attention that the failure did. The only thing that puzzles me is that the Redskins chose to run the play after they showed it to New York, and the Giants called a timeout. According to postgame comments, it seemed most of the players wanted to run it anyway. So Jim Zorn let them. That’s not something I would agree to…I may have sent my offense on the field if I wanted the touchdown instead of the field goal. Still, I see what Zorn was trying to do.

That play was really the least of my concerns. Seeing Laron Landry, Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Kareem Moore and Reed Doughty quit as a unit was distressing. Only Fred Smoot was making any sort of effort out there. It’s just embarrassing. The whole Albert Haynesworth fiasco after the game and then later this week is also tough to stomach. However, what Haynesworth said after the game what I’ve been saying since Week 1. The defensive scheme is terrible. Greg Blache is one of the real problems on this team. Eli Manning throws poorly every time an opponent breathes on him. So why did the Redskins blitz Manning on less that 10% of the passing plays? It makes no sense. I said as much after the Redskins loss Week 1 to…Eli Manning and the Giants! The same strategy failed the Redskins that week as well. Why in the world would Blache try the same thing again? Instead of bashing Haynesworth as a malcontent, maybe the media should start analyzing the Redskins blitz schemes. It’s not hard. There aren’t many blitzes to analyze. It wouldn’t take that long. As talented as the Redskins are defensively, there is no reason that they shouldn’t be blitzing near the league average of around 33%. As was the case last season, the Redskins are dead last in attempted blitzes. They blitz less than 20% of the time. Not only is it bad strategy, it’s tough to watch. I’m sick of watching the Redskins hold opponents to 2-3 yards on 1st and 2nd down, then give up 3rd and 7’s or 3rd and 8’s again and again. Haynesworth, in his own convoluted way, is absolutely right. Thank God I only have to watch two more games of a Blache-coached defense.

On to Dallas, who have once again become the media’s darlings after winning a December football game. Against the previously undefeated Saints no less. Meh. It was a good win, don’t get me wrong. But are the overall problems in Dallas washed away? Not even close. The Cowboys are still 1-2 in December, and have still yet to win a January game with Tony Romo or Wade Phillips in charge. Heck, it’s been more than a decade since they won one. A win over a Saints team that certainly did not play very well, doesn’t change that. I said at the beginning of the month that Dallas was likely to go 2-3 in their final five games, and I still stand by that. If I’m any one of the other five teams in the playoffs, Dallas is the team I want to play (unless I’m Minnesota…then I’d rather see Green Bay). The overwhelming pressure to win a playoff game, along with the incompetence of the head coach and quarterback, are pretty much going to lock the Cowboys into a one-and-done situation. If they even make the playoffs. It’s likely they will, but they are far from clinching a spot.

So that’s how both of these teams come in to the 100th meeting of this rivalry. This game will not be decided by anything Dallas does. I don’t care that they had two extra days to prepare for it (thanks NFL). It all depends on which Redskins team shows up. If it’s the one we saw from November to Mid-December, the Redskins win this game. I’m going on record right here. If this game is close, the Redskins will win it. However, if the team really has quit, and the Giants game was more of a sign of things to come instead of a blip on the radar screen, then this game is going to get as ugly as it did on Monday. It would be really nice to see the team put forth any sort of effort and make the Cowboys fans’ lives a little more painful.

NFL Week 16: Fun At .500

A poor record in the late games last week made me 9-6 overall. I was even worse against the spread. 5-9-1 is completely unacceptable, and by far my worst record of the season. Here are the yearly numbers to date:

Overall: 144-66 (68%)
Vs. Spread: 112-93-5

FRIDAY

San Diego Chargers (11-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-7)(-3)
8:30 p.m. LP Field
Two of the 12 teams either in the playoffs or still mathematically alive in the AFC. I think someone figured out a scenario earlier this week that the six teams tied at 7-7 and the two teams tied at 8-6 could all finish in a tie at the end of the year. I’d love to see the NFL figure out the tiebreakers on that one.
Pick: Chargers

SUNDAY

Seattle Seahawks (5-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (9-5)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
If you honestly think the Packers have a chance at going to the Super Bowl, let me enter last week’s game as Exhibit A against that idea. Ben Roethlisberger was able to put up 503 yards on the Packers secondary. Just think what Drew Brees, Kurt Warner or Donovan McNabb would be able to do.
Pick: Packers

Oakland Raiders (5-9) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-11)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Before we consider this the weekly “Oh my goodness, why are they playing this” game, consider these two things. First, the Raiders now have wins over the Eagles, Steelers, Bengals and Broncos. Not too shabby of a resume. I wouldn’t compare Jamarcus Russell to Johnny Unitas (which Gus Johnson actually did last week), but he looked like an actual quarterback on that last minute drive against Denver. Second, everytime the Browns have played in a game like this (against the Lions and Chiefs), the games have been very entertaining. It may actually be worth tuning in.
Pick: Browns

Kansas City Chiefs (3-11) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I know the Bengals own every tie-breaker imaginable, but if they aren’t careful, they can still lose this division. If they fail to win here, I doubt they’ll be able to win at New York next week.
Pick: Bengals

Buffalo Bills (5-9) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-7)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
I believe I was the only one that had the Falcons falling back towards .500 this season. And I couldn’t be more right. They’ve allowed 312 points while scoring 312 points. They are 5-2 at home and 2-5 on the road. That’s pretty much the standard definition of a .500 team.
Pick: Falcons

Houston Texans (7-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-7)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
Neither one of these teams can get out of their own way in important games. So in what is an elimination game for both squads, I predict both teams will keep trying to figure out ways to lose. Unfortunately, one of these teams will even fail trying to do that and somehow win this game…before losing next week.
Pick: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers (6-8) vs. New York Giants (8-6)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
After seeing Carolina pound Minnesota for 60 minutes, it makes you wonder what the Panthers could have achieved if they had focused on their run game from Week 1, instead of putting their season into the hands of Jake Delhomme.
Pick: Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-1)(-14)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
The wrath of Drew Brees and Sean Peyton will come down on the Bucs. Not the best week to be playing these guys.
Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7) vs. New England Patriots (9-5)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Of the six teams that would make the AFC playoffs as of today, only the Broncos look worse than New England. I’d seriously consider taking Cincinnati or Baltimore over these clowns. They haven’t looked right since they got spanked by New Orleans.
Pick: Patriots

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
The only way the Ravens managed to beat Pittsburgh the first time was in overtime. And Pittsburgh had their third string quarterback starting. And the game was in Baltimore. Did I mention the Ravens needed overtime to win? Ben Roethlisberger is back and fresh off a 503 yard performance (I feel that didn’t get enough attention in the national media. That could easily be a top five passing performance in the past 20-25 years…and no one seems to be talking about it). Since the Steelers still own the Ravens, I’m predicting a little 2008 déjà vu.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis Rams (1-13) vs. Arizona Cardinals (9-5)(-14)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
I don’t think Vegas could make the line high enough for this game. 14 is probably way to low. I would have started at 17.5 and gone up as the week progressed.
Pick: Cardinals

Detroit Lions (2-12) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)(-12.5)
4:05 p.m. Candlestick Park
Here’s the “Oh my goodness, why are they playing this” game of the week. The 49ers weren’t close to selling out the meaningful Monday Night game against Arizona. I doubt they’ll get 50% attendance for this one.
Pick: 49ers

Denver Broncos (8-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)(-7)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
As great a potential story as Brian Dawkins returning to Philly, injuring half the Eagles offense, and leading Denver to a much needed win would be, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Not with the Broncos offense.
Pick: Eagles

New York Jets (7-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (14-0)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
Kiss the Jets playoff hopes goodbye. New Jersey had every advantage going for them last week. They had a beat up Falcons team playing in frigid temperatures. The Falcons had learned the night before that they were officially eliminated from the playoffs. What did the Jets do? They decided to take the second half of that game off. It was a risky strategy. It didn’t pay off. Now the Jets go on the road, against a much better team, and a team that’s had three extra days to prepare for this game. Just show me the pick.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

Minnesota Vikings (11-3)(-7) vs. Chicago Bears (5-9)
8:30 p.m. Soldier Field
No, I don’t care at all about what’s going on in Minnesota with Brett Favre and Brad Childress. Knowing the way Favre operates, it’s not surprising in the least. It doesn’t matter in the long run. The only team Minnesota can beat in the NFC Playoffs would be Green Bay. New Orleans, Philly, Arizona and Dallas would all beat the Vikings at this point.
Pick: Vikings

Giants at Redskins: Vinny, Vidi, Vici...He Came, He Saw, He Made Bad Free Agent Signings

New York Giants (7-6) vs. Washington Redskins (4-9)
8:30 p.m. FedEx Field
The Redskins sure know how to make a 4-9 season interesting. Christmas came early for Skins fans, as Vinny Cerrato stepped down as team executive whatever he was. Will he come back as a “consultant” or team adviser? Will he take a year off, only for Dan Snyder to summon him back a year later ala 2002? It’s all entirely possible. But all that doesn’t matter as of right now. He’s gone. He’s not at Ashburn. He’s not walking around the field before the games. Most importantly, he won’t be making trips to Austin to scout Colt McCoy. He’s gone, and the Redskins instantly got better with the addition by subtraction of one Vincent Cerrato.

Cerrato’s “resignation” was step one towards fixing whatever is wrong with this organization. As I’ve said before, I don’t think there are too many issues, or issues that can’t be addressed within in the next two offseasons. However, the Redskins weren’t positioned to do that with Cerrato in charge or Cerrato whispering in Snyder’s ear.

Cerrato’s disappearance was only half the story of course. The Redskins immediately hired Bruce Allen just hours after the Cerrato announcement. This obviously means two things. One, it means this transition was lined up weeks, if not months ago. Two, Cerrato was forced out. That’s important, since only Snyder could make that call, and it’s important that he got rid of Cerrato and wasn’t able to go the easy way out with Cerrato actually resigning. So it gives me hope that Cerrato will actually stay away this time.

As for Allen, I’m not huge on his credentials. He worked well with another one of the NFL’s difficult owners in Al Davis. Along with John Gruden, he assembled a talented veteran roster in Oakland and helped the Raiders get to Super Bowl XXXVII. Two years after his coach jumped ship to Tampa, and beat Allen in the Super Bowl, Allen also went to the Bucs. This time success eluded him. The Bucs were up one year and down the next, but they basically broke even over the course of Allen’s five years in Tampa. It seems without Gruden, Allen has basically presided over teams that have gone slightly worse than .500. Regardless, he has a pulse and ties to the Redskins (the name Allen, while a popular last name, is not a coincidence). It’s a step up from Cerrato. Then again, I would be a step up from Cerrato. Allen will only be able to have a success if he is allowed to do his job. If he’s given a chance to get the players and coaches he wants, then I’d say it’s 60-40 he succeeds. If Snyder starts meddling, there’s basically no chance for this marriage to work. A lot of this will be wait and see. At least Allen has worked with both Davis and the Glazer family in the past, and should know full well what he is getting himself into.

Of course Allen’s hiring led the widespread speculation of who would be coaching the team next season. Gruden became the media’s popular choice for the first 24 hours, but after they actually did a little research, they realized that it will be nearly impossible for Gruden to get out of his Monday Night Football contract (and how much fun will it be to see Gruden in the booth Monday Night...how long until Tirico or Jaworski ask about the job...2nd quarter maybe). Then they did a little more research and realized that the Redskins have had a not so secret desire for Mike Shanahan for the past year. Shanahan appears to basically have the job, unless another team swoops in and pays him more (the only team that could do that would be Dallas, and the jury is still out as to whether they will need a new coach or not), or he has a sudden change of heart. Either way, we’ll cross the Shanahan bridge when we get to it. Jim Zorn is still the coach here, and the Redskins still have three games remaining before embarking on what should be a very interesting offseason. A very crucial offseason.

Now to the Giants. This is a team the Redskins simply can’t figure out. Over the past few seasons, the Skins have basically played the Eagles and Cowboys even. However, the Giants have had the Redskins number. They beat Washington at home and on the road. Many times it’s been by two or three scores. Even this season, one of the worst in recent memory for Washington, double digit losses haven’t been common. So the Giants know something, and it goes far beyond having a couple of former Skins on the roster.

After a 5-0 start, the Giants have face-planted to a 7-6 record. The defense, which is normally formidable against the pass and run, hasn’t been able to stop either. Granted, all six losses have come to teams with winning records. The Giants have played a killer schedule the past two months. However, they haven’t held an opponent to under 21 points since their 44-7 win against Oakland on October 11th. That was the Oakland team quarterbacked by Jamarcus Russell, who Redskins fans found out last week is God awful (although Denver might want to argue that). Since then, they gave up 48 to the Saints, 24 to the Cardinals, 21 to the Chargers, 26 to the Broncos and 85 combined points in two games against the Eagles. Even in their two wins, they gave up 31 to Atlanta and 24 to Dallas. They’ve given up 32 points a game in their last eight games. Again, they’ve faced good offenses. But you figure somewhere, if the defense was still as good as it was supposed to be, they’d hold at least one of those teams under 20.

Also failing the Giants has been their long reliable running game. The last time New York had a 100-yard rusher was that win against Oakland. In fact, in the last four games, they haven’t had a back go over 60 yards…let alone 100. Eli Manning has actually become this team’s best player, and he’s playing well while somewhat injured. Coming in to the season, most (including me) figured the Giants running game and defense would be great and all the question marks would surround the passing game. The complete opposite has unfolded, which combined with the tough schedule, has the Giants two games out of the playoff picture instead of the 10-3 record many people expected.

The Redskins seem to be catching the Giants at the right time. Their offense has clicked the last three weeks, and they are facing a defense that has forgotten how to play. Futhermore, the Giants seem to have that impending sense of doom hanging over their heads. They are one or two mistakes away from folding up the tents and packing it in until next season. The Skins are playing like they have nothing left to lose, which of course, they don’t. Nothing would make them happier than playing spoiler and knocking their nemesis out of the playoff mix for good.

Having Albert Haynesworth back in the lineup is huge. He didn’t play in close losses to Dallas and Philly, and he didn’t play most of the loss to New Orleans. Had he been in those games, a couple may have had different endings. If he plays the full game tonight, that’s a huge plus, and could be the difference. He’ll help stop the already struggling run game, and he’ll help Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo have more sack opportunities. For some reason, I’ve felt really good about this game all week. I’m not for tanking late season games, especially games in the division, for better draft picks. So I would really like to see the Redskins come away with this one, even if it doesn’t help Allen and the future coach in April.

NFL Week 15: No Comparison

Another 10-5 week overall, but another lousy week against the spread (7-8...yuck). So the season records look like this:

Overall: 135-60 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 107-84-4

THURSDAY

Indianapolis Colts (13-0)(-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)
8:20 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
The fact that the Jacksonville barely was able to sold this game out speaks louder than the other games that haven’t been full. This is a 7-6 team, fighting for a playoff spot, playing a primetime game, going against a division rival that’s undefeated. Every other city sells that game out easily. Time to end the Jacksonville experiment.
Pick: Colts

SATURDAY

Dallas Cowboys (8-5) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-0)(-7)
8:20 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Wait, the Cowboys lost another December game? WHAT??? I don’t believe it. All I know about football is just crumbling away.
Pick: Saints

SUNDAY

Green Bay Packers (9-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7)(-1)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
There is no good reason to pick the Steelers right now. So I’m going to pick against the Packers instead. Green Bay has still beaten only one (1) good football team this season. Not saying Pittsburgh is great, but they’re better than most of the teams the Packers have managed to beat this year.
Pick: Steelers

Miami Dolphins (7-6) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-7)(-3)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
Have to admit that I’m impressed by Miami hanging in the playoff mix this long. I thought this team would have fallen apart on their way to a 6-10 or 7-9 record about a month ago. Since the Dolphins have proven that they can stop the run, I like their chances on the road against Chris Johnson.
Pick: Dolphins

New England Patriots (8-5)(-7) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-8)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I usually don’t watch SportsCenter or ESPN when I’m home, so I certainly wasn’t watching it while in San Francisco. However, my friend (and loyal reader) texted me to say that SportsCenter was leading their Monday morning show with the Patriots win over Carolina (because of the Randy Moss “news”). So instead of leading with the two undefeated teams, the Cowboys choking another game away, the Giants-Eagles thriller (which would have made perfect sense seeing how ESPN loves both of those teams) or previewing the Cardinals-49ers game that was going to be on their air later in the evening, ESPN chose to open their show with the mundane Patriots 10-point win over a bad Carolina team. All because a couple of the Panthers said that Randy Moss quit on his team. Well, stop the presses! Opposing players have only been saying that for Moss’ ENTIRE CAREER. This isn’t news. Ugh. Please ESPN, stick to what you know. Just lead with Tiger Woods from now on.
Pick: Patriots

Arizona Cardinals (8-5)(-11.5) vs. Detroit Lions (2-11)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
I went to the Monday night game with the expectations of checking out one of the greatest offenses in the league. I obviously left disappointed. Something tells me that the Cardinals won’t turn the ball over seven times in this one.
Pick: Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (6-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Something tells me the 49ers won’t force seven turnovers in this one.
Pick: Eagles

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) vs. New York Jets (7-6)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Jets fans are becoming annoying again. Time for their team to let them down. I’ve actually liked what I’ve seen from Chris Redman the last couple of weeks.
Pick: Falcons

Chicago Bears (5-8) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-6)(-11)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
This is a game the Ravens can’t afford to lose, but a line that looks way too large. The Ravens players/coaches/media/fans have been way too high following a win over Detroit. Even though this could easily be another five interception game from Jay Cutler, I don’t like the looks of that line.
Pick: Ravens, Bears cover

Cleveland Browns (2-11) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-10)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Nothing to see here, let’s keep it moving. However, I will watch if Gus Johnson is calling the game.
Pick: Chiefs

Houston Texans (6-7)(-10) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-12)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Houston is easily the team I’m most disappointed in this year. I thought they could easily get to 8-8 with a chance at nine or ten wins. This will probably be their last win of the season. But even if they somehow manage to get back into the race, this team has still not grown up enough to stop their penchant for blowing late leads in big ball games.
Pick: Texans

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) vs. San Diego Chargers (10-3)(-6.5)
4:05 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
There have already been several people comparing the death of Chris Henry to the death of Sean Taylor. While comparing deaths is pointless and rather tasteless, this is one comparison that should not be made. The only thing two things that Taylor and Henry had in common was that they were football players who died during the middle of the season. Taylor was one of the best players on his team and in the league. Henry was barely the second best receiver in Cincinnati. While Taylor had a little bit of a checkered past, he had turned the corner for several years until his untimely death. Henry was a troublemaker in high school, at West Virginia and especially in Cincinnati. His arrest list ranged from drugs to violence to domestic violence to DUI’s. And despite the flowery reports, there was no real indication that Henry was turning his life around (where were these flowery reports after Taylor died…non-existent). That was further proven at the time of death. Taylor passed away trying to protect his wife and daughter from a robbery gone wrong. Henry passed away while trying to chase down his fiancée (girlfriend…whatever) in her truck following a domestic dispute. While Henry’s death is tragic, and I don’t want to speak ill of the dead, let’s hope these comparisons get nipped in the bud early so we don’t have to deal with an entire week of this bull.
Pick: Chargers

Oakland Raiders (4-9) vs. Denver Broncos (8-5)(-14)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
As bad as the Redskins have had it at home this season, no one has it worse than Jamarcus Russell in Oakland. While every boo he gets is deserved (he’s out of shape, he doesn’t prepare well for games, he takes no responsibilities after losses and he’s vastly overpaid), I can’t think of any player or team that gets a worse reception at home than he does. He was even booed after his first drive of the game against the Redskins…a drive in which he completed a couple of passes and led his team to a field goal. Being in that stadium, it was stunning to see how every Raider fan gave up on the game the minute they saw Russell stepping on to the field. Charlie Frye definitely gives his team a better chance to win this game, but that still doesn’t mean they will.
Pick: Broncos

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-8)(-6.5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
The Bucs would have the second pick in the draft right now, so they really have to root for the Rams to slip up somewhere and win before the season is out.
Pick: Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings (11-2)(-9) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-8)
8:20 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
There at least three other games (Bengals-Chargers, Dolphins-Titans, Falcons-Jets) that should be flexed into this slot. But none of those teams have Brett Favre, so NBC is going to subject us to another torturous three-and-a-half hours.
Pick: Vikings, Panthers cover

Redskins at Raiders: Whistle Blowers

Washington Redskins (3-9) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-8)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Woo-wee. The Redskins invent yet another way to lose. See, some teams can just go out there and stink every weekend. They’ll get down early, keep it somewhat close in the middle, then let the other team put them away by 10 to 17 points. Not the Redskins. They like to top themselves every season in the painful loss department.

Now, as poorly as the Redskins played down the stretch, the Saints got a boost from the NFL. I’m not necessarily blaming the refs (although every reviewed play, and there were a whole bunch in that game, went against the Skins…conspiracy theorists unite), but a league rule. Mike Sellers’ “fumble” in overtime was really the last nail in the coffin for the Skins, but it shouldn’t have been.

Before last season, the NFL’s rule on reviewing fumbles was simple. If the referee blew the whistle, even if the runner fumbled, the play could not be reviewed. There were certainly many instances where the runner fumbled the ball and the refs made a mistake. But it didn’t matter if he fumbled. It didn’t matter if the defense would have recovered the ball. The play was over, the ball remained with the team in position. The rule was black and white.

In 2007, the NFL changed the rule. Fumbles on plays that were blown dead were now allowed to be reviewed. The defense could be awarded the ball even if the whistle had blown before the recovery. The only caveat to the rule is that it must be obvious that had play continued, the defense would have recovered the fumble anyway. Now all of a sudden, a rule that was pretty much black and white, was changed into several shades of gray.

Fast forward to last Sunday. Mike Sellers has the ball, is hit by Chris McAlister and appears to fumble the ball on the way back to the ground. Now looking at the replay, I thought it was pretty obvious that Sellers’ elbow had hit the ground, causing the ball to come out. As we all know, the ground cannot cause a fumble. But for the sake of argument, let’s say that Sellers did indeed fumble the ball in mid-air. Both he and McAlister land on the ground next to each other, as does Saints linebacker Troy Evans. Evans and Sellers lunge after the ball. They both get to the ball at about the same time, pushing the ball a few yards further backwards. Then the side judge blows his whistle, charges towards both players, and points to the ground, marking the play dead. Both Sellers and Evans stop. At that point, both players were closer to the ball than anyone else on the field. During all this, McAlister gets up and was about to walk off the field. But he sees both players fighting for the ball, he sees the ball squirt free, and he runs over to pick it up well after the whistle had blown and the other two players had stopped playing.

The referees now had a decision to make. After they determined that Sellers did indeed fumble, they then had to determine who should get possession. Again, looking at the replay, it appears that both Sellers and Evans initially lunged after the ball, only to stop when they heard the whistle. Who is to say that Sellers wouldn’t have recovered the ball had the whistle not been blown? For that matter, what is the point of having whistles? If the play technically isn’t over when the whistle is blown, what’s the point of having whistles at all?

Players are trained their entire career to play until they hear the whistle. But once they hear the whistle they are supposed to stop playing. Otherwise they can be flagged with unsportsmanlike conducts and other personal fouls. They’ve been trained to do that since they were in pee-wee football. All of a sudden, the NFL changes that rule, and the referees are supposed to determine what would have happened if the whistle theoretically hadn’t been blown. How are they supposed to do that? Sports should not be based on what would have happened had something else not happened first. The whistle was blown. The play should end. Period. Once the whistle blows, the majority of players on the field will stop playing.

I understand the rule was implemented years ago to save the butts of the refs when they missed an obvious call. A lot of times when the ball is fumbled, it disappears in a pile, and the players chase after it anyway (despite the whistle). But the rule change also allows, and almost forces, the refs to change the call that was made Sunday. The ball was not fumbled in a pile in between the hashmarks. The ball was fumbled in the open field, with only three players around. Even McAlister, who recovered the ball cleanly, made no effort to run towards the endzone. He picked the ball up as an afterthought. Had he thought the play was really still ongoing, he would have at least attempted to score. In fact, after the play was “over”, McAlister threw the ball at the referee who was in the field of play. Since the play was technically still going, the ball should have still been live and another player could have picked it up. The play should still be ongoing theoretically. This is a dumb rule, and I said as much last year when it cost the Chiefs a win.

This is not a case of sour grapes. Kareem Moore shouldn’t have fumbled the ball after the made the interception. Shaun Suisham (may his career rest in peace) should have made what was essentially a chip shot field goal to put the game out of reach. Laron Landry shouldn’t have been burned twice on obvious double moves. Sellers shouldn’t have lost the ball to begin with. For that matter, Sellers shouldn’t be on the team. Of all the mistakes the Redskins have made this season, giving Sellers a raise and an extension was the worst. They gave him an extension after Week 2 against the Rams because he’d been bitching about his salary for years. The next week against the Lions, he missed two key blocks that were the difference in the game. He has completely quit on this team since his raise. I knew that’s exactly what would happen. He’s an average player and a scumbag of a human (remember, this was a guy who was forced out of the league at the beginning of the decade because he was caught trying to deal drugs…a charge he still won’t admit to even after overwhelming evidence and a conviction). And even if the Redskins somehow went on and won the game, it wouldn’t have mattered all that much in the grand scheme of things. They’d be 4-8 instead of 3-9. The Saints would be 11-1 instead of 12-0. They’d still be in first place in the conference and in control of their own destiny. I’m just very frustrated with that rule and the fact it played a role in giving the Redskins a loss they probably didn’t deserve.

Now, I’m already sort of out the door on my vacation. The girlfriend is a 49ers fan, so we decided awhile ago to go out to the Bay Area this weekend since the Skins are in Oakland and the 49ers play at home Monday Night. Unfortunately, three of the four teams we’ll be seeing are pretty bad right now. It also means I’m going to condense the picks and the Redskins preview into one post. It’s unfortunate because I had a lot of good stuff on Dallas losing another December game and Joe Flacco looking like a FCS quarterback (I know several Ravens fans who had Flacco ranked ahead of Brady and Brees in the quarterback pantheon earlier this season. I kid you not). I guess all that will have to be saved for next week.

Despite being the whipping boy for the national sports media, the Oakland Raiders have put together some decent wins this season. They are 4-8 already, and could potentially win two of their final four games of the year. Futhermore, three of their wins came against the Eagles, Bengals and Steelers. That’s a better resume than many teams over .500. I know they’ve had some absolutely dreadful games (like their loss to the Giants, after which several New York players said they had played against better teams in college). But they are showing signs of life. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Bruce Gradkowski looks like an actual quarterback. He’s clearly much better than JaMarcus Russell, and the Raiders have been much better since Gradkowski started taking snaps. They have several talented running backs even though Darren McFadden hasn’t lived up to the hype yet. Darrius Heyward-Bey has been a bust (shocker), but Louis Murphy has been a pleasant surprise. Even when they were playing terribly earlier in the season, and the offense kept turning the ball over in their own territory, the defense has played well. Oakland gets after the quarterback. They force a lot of turnovers themselves. For my money, Nnamdi Asomugha is the best cornerback in the NFL right now. There appears to be signs that the Raiders are pulling themselves out of a six-year tailspin.

The Silver and Black and the Redskins have similar problems. Both are being held hostage by an owner who doesn’t quite know what he’s doing. While Dan Snyder’s mistakes come from not surrounding himself with the best people, Al Davis’ mistakes come from his instance that he still runs the team despite going through senility. The good news for Raiders fans is that they probably won’t have to wait too much longer before Al kicks the bucket. There are still obvious deficiencies on this team. Head coach Tom Cable is too busy abusing women and assistants to focus on teaching his young players. The offensive line is still a mess. The Raiders continue to be one of the most penalized teams in the NFL (although as we saw last Monday night, they aren’t #1 or even #2 anymore). But there are pieces in Oakland. The right moves in the draft and free agency could make this team a competitor. It probably won’t happen with Al Davis alive, but Oakland is no longer a guaranteed win and the franchise is no longer a loss cause.

Despite the records of the two teams, this actually figures to be a good game. They have both played relatively well the last couple of weeks. A good portion of the players on the field for both teams will be fighting for future jobs. So the effort should be there as well. Even with all the injuries, the Redskins are better than the Raiders on paper. Then again, they’ve been better than several teams that they’ve already lost to.


NFL picks time. I was 11-4 last week overall and 8-6-1 against the spread. Picks are below without many comments. Home teams are in bold. Season records look like this:

Overall: 125-55 (69%)
Vs Spread: 100-76-4

Thursday
Steelers (6-6)(-10) over Browns (1-11)

Sunday
Colts (12-0)(-7) over Broncos (8-4)
Vikings (10-2)(-7) over Bengals (9-3), Bengals cover
Jets (6-6)(-3) over Buccaneers (1-11)
Bills (4-8)(-1) over Chiefs (3-9)
Bears (5-7) over Packers (8-4)(-3.5)
Saints (12-0)(-10) over Falcons (6-6)
Ravens (6-6)(-13) over Lions (2-10)
Jaguars (7-5)(-2.5) over Dolphins (6-6)
Patriots (7-5)(-13) over Panthers (5-7)
Texans (5-7)(-6) over Seahawks (5-7)
Titans (5-7)(-12) over Rams (1-11)
Chargers (9-3) over Cowboys (8-4)(-3)
Giants (7-5)(-1) over Eagles (8-4)

Monday
Cardinals (8-4)(-3.5) over 49ers (5-7)

Maryland Basketball: On Guard

#3/3 Villanova Wildcats (7-0) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (5-2)
Verizon Center - Washington, DC
BB&T Classic

So if you weren’t impressed by Maryland’s win in Hoosierville, you weren’t the only one. Not that I couldn’t see that coming. I said on this very page that I expected Maryland to struggle with Indiana before pulling away late. The 12-point final spread is very deceptive. If you watched the game, you know it was a two-possession game most of the way. Indiana simply doesn’t have the talent (right now…check back in two years) to run with power conference teams. Maryland wore them down and that allowed the Terps to run their offense effectively in the last 6-8 minutes. Other than that, there weren’t a lot of positives to take away from this game.

Despite being a true road win (which does hold some swag come tournament time), this won’t exactly be a RPI-boosting win. If the Hoosiers are in the top 100 RPI at the end of the season, it would surprise me. The guards still couldn’t hit shots, open or contested. Jordan Williams continues to struggle scoring around the basket. I know it’s going to take him time to develop a post game, but going up for layups instead of slamming home a wide open dunk shouldn’t have to be something you teach a 6’10” 18-year-old. And if someone knows what happened to Cliff Tucker, please let the College Park or Bloomington authorities know. He suited up for the game. He was on the bench. He never made it on the court. Seems like Gary has found his new Mike Jones whipping boy. There is no way in the world that Jin Soo Choi deserves minutes over Tucker. No way. You can complain about Tucker’s lack of defensive effort from time to time, but at least he contributes more than just five fouls a game.

The only other positive I can see, and you had to really squint to see it, is that Greivis Vasquez is slowly starting to get into a rhythm. And I mean slooooooooowly. Still, Vasquez seemed a little more like his old reckless self. He attacked the basket, drew fouls and poured in 23 points. He also made some key passes on flex cuts down the stretch to key the Terps 16-4 run that put the game away.

Futhermore, I was encouraged by what I saw from the rest of the conference. As I’m sure you know by now, the ACC finally dropped the challenge to the Big Ten (as correctly predicted on this page). What did we learn? Well, we now know why Clemson usually plays nobodies before their conference schedule. Oliver Purnell, the Jim Boeheim of the South, typically makes sure his team travels no further than Columbia, and gets no one tougher than the Citadel at home, before venturing into the ACC. However, Purnell has forced the Tigers to engage in some tougher competition this year. They were dismantled by Texas A&M, squeaked out a win against overrated Butler, and then choked one away (at home) to an above average Illinois team. What happened to that 23-point 2nd half lead, Ollie? We also learned that Wake is going to have problems scoring. Florida State should not be a serious threat, even with Michael Snaer. Virginia Tech is really going to struggle without A.D. Vassallo. N.C. State and Virginia are going to be as bad as advertised. Only Miami looked somewhat impressive. The conference may be worse than previously thought. Things certainly don’t look as bleak as they did earlier in the week. I was never concerned about the loss to Cincinnati. That was a team Maryland simply didn’t match up with. And suddenly, that loss to Wisconsin doesn’t seem so bad either. Right Dook?

Just in case this two week death march that Maryland has been on wasn’t tough enough, now the Terps have to hop on the Green Line and head down the Phone Booth and play Georgetown. HA! Seeing if you were awake. Obviously Georgetown would never schedule Maryland. Instead, Maryland has to go play in an arena they never play well in (save for the 2002 NCAA Tournament), while playing the #3 team in the country.

Villanova has been as good as advertised so far this season. They’ve played a couple of quality opponents, along with their usual schedule of Philadelphia Big 5 mid-majors. Villanova has quality wins over Dayton and Ole Miss. They have respectable wins over Drexel and La Salle. The only questionable result was their near loss to George Mason in Puerto Rico. Mason is not going to be very good this season (I’m basing this completely on their game last Wednesday at GW. I was able to score free tickets to the Smith Center and figured it was worth the short trip. Mason played absolutely lethargic for the entire game. They were sloppy. They had no interest in boxing out. Heck, Jim Larranaga appeared to give up early in the 2nd half. Futhermore, I know GW was picked to finish 13th in the A-14, but there is NO way 12 teams in that conference are better than the Colonials this year). Villanova struggled shooting in that game (35.8%), which probably explains why they needed a late three to win the game. So giving them a mulligan for that game, Villanova is tested and has played well in just about all their games so far.

As much as I’ve talked about Maryland being guard oriented, Villanova shifts that scale even further. This is the guard oriented team in college basketball. They only have two players taller than 6’8”. One has Hepatitis B and won’t be playing for the forseeable future, and the other (Maurice Sutton) is basically a defensive stopper. He doesn’t contribute much on the offensive end.

What Nova lacks in forwards they make up for with guards. They have a lot of them. They can all shoot. They can all score. Led by Jay Wright, who my girlfriend continuously reminds me is “very dreamy”, the Wildcats have been running this type of offense for years. Don’t forget the famous four-guard attack they used in the middle of the decade led by Randy Foye, Allen Ray, Kyle Lowly and Mike Nardi. That team was smaller than small. Even the few forwards were small. The guards were stringy. They lacked the tenacity to go inside at all. Once their shots stopped falling in March, they lost.

Despite similar styles, this Villanova team is much different. The guards are thicker. They can rebound. The two forwards they do play contribute much more than the ones that played a few years ago. Instead of four capable guards that didn’t make big shots when it mattered, the Wildcats throw out likely player of the year candidate Scottie Reynolds. If you’ve watched college basketball the last few years, not much has to be said about Reynolds. The last two seasons, he’s average over 16 points per game. He averages about four assists per game. He shoots well, makes threes, makes free throws and plays outstanding defense. He might be the most complete guard in college basketball today. He should be a lottery pick next summer.

However, it’s the supporting cast that worries more than Reynolds. You know Reynolds is going to get his points. You know he’s going to hit big shots. There’s nothing that most teams can do to stop him. You are better off not worrying too much about him. Maryland needs to focus on stopping the rest of this team. Corey Fisher is averaging 12 points and four assists per. Corey Stokes contributes ten points and five boards. The two forwards, Antonio Pena and Taylor King, combine for 25 points and 17 boards a game. Eight Wildcats (not counting the ill Mouphtaou Yarou) average close to 20 minutes a game. The loss of Yarou may actually be a blessing in disguise for Wright. Now he has more of an excuse to play exciting freshman Isaiah Armwood, who has been struggling to find minutes.

Villanova, like Maryland, has that one fatal flaw. If their guards are struggling to shoot from outside, the Wildcats struggle to score consistently. They will rush shots. They will have bad possessions. They can go into extended scoring funks. However, their guards shoot much better than Maryland’s, and a team-wide struggle is very rare. They already had one against Mason, and I doubt we see another one until conference play. All it takes is for one of their guards to go off, have the defense overcompensate, and open up the rest of perimeter, for Villanova to have success. In half of their Big East games last year, Villanova eclipsed 85 points. For a league that usually values thug ball and physicality, that’s a very impressive statistic. Villanova tends to impose their pace and their style on their opponent. And this year’s team is better than last year’s.

So how does Maryland win? They have to hope that the Wildcats have another off game and the Terps must get Villanova’s two forwards in foul trouble. That way they can run the flex cut (which has worked reasonably well this year) for easy points and Villanova won’t be able to shoot them out of the building. This was a game I didn’t expect Maryland to win at the beginning of the season. I’ve seen nothing this year to convince me that they can. Gary Williams’s teams usually come to play in games like this. The Terps may have a little desperation that Villanova doesn’t have. It may be closer than I expect. I don’t see Maryland on top at the end of this one.

Villanova 78
Maryland 67

Saints at Redskins: How Far Can They Geaux?

New Orleans Saints (11-0) vs. Washington Redskins (3-8)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
It was more of the same from the Redskins last week. But instead of having to force myself to talk about another divisional game, I now have an opponent that’s worth writing about. So apologizes if this issue is a little Redskins light.

If you can remember two seasons ago - and considering the massive, massive, MASSIVE amounts of publicity, I’m sure you could – the New England Patriots ran the table for the NFL’s first ever 16-0 regular season. Now, forget for a second how that season ended for New England. That’s tough to do since we all got to see Bill Belichick, his cameras, his ego, his quarterback and his personal television station (ESPN) get their comeuppance in front of billions of people worldwide. It’s still very enjoyable to look back and reflect on. Regardless, that’s not what this post is about. But try to remember all the coverage, all season long, that centered entirely around the Patriots. That’s all football fans, or sports fans in general, heard about for five months. As soon as the Patriots went to 3-0 (and did so by beating bad teams), ESPN and friends started hyping them up as the greatest team of all-time. They started the undefeated talk in either Week 4 or Week 5 of that season. You would think that with two teams currently standing at 11-0 this year, that ESPN would have done the exact same thing for both the Colts and Saints.

Of course, you’d be wrong. After three weeks this season, the story wasn’t Drew Brees and New Orleans. It wasn’t Indianapolis going 3-0 despite a coaching change. The big stories centered around the Jets being 3-0, the Giants being 3-0, Donovan McNabb’s injury/Michael Vick’s return, the return of Tom Brady from injury, anything Cowboys related and ANYTHING related in any way to Brett Favre. In fact, it wasn’t until about two to three weeks ago that the talk on the sports airwaves started focusing on the potential of either the Colts or Saints running the table. Or both.

ESPN completely missed this story. We could easily be looking at two undefeated teams playing in the Super Bowl. Up until Veteran’s Day, ESPN couldn’t have cared less. Because the story didn’t revolve around the Holy Quintet (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Patriots and whatever team has Brett Favre), ESPN simply ignored it until it couldn’t be ignored anymore. In reality, this is ESPN’s worst nightmare. Two teams, in cities that aren’t that big, and whose citizens don’t rush home every night to see SportsCenter (because they know ESPN rarely covers their teams), could matchup in the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. And ESPN completely missed the boat. How great is that?

I could understand ESPN ignoring the Colts. They’ve been 11-0 rather recently (they actually went to 13-0 before losing…then lost in their first playoff game). The Colts, despite the coaching change, are still the same old Colts. Peyton Manning is still great. They are still fun to watch. It’s been the same since the beginning of the decade. It’s not like they’d be breaking any news by saying how great the Colts are. Furthermore, the Colts early wins were not that impressive. They were certainly not a collection of games you could look at and say with any conviction that the Colts were going to run the table.

The fact ESPN missed jumping on board the Saints bandwagon is unforgivable. The Saints were blowing people out the same way that New England was blowing people out in 2007. Brees was on pace to beat all of Brady’s records from that season. The Saints first five wins were much better collectively than the Patriots first five wins of 2007. New Orleans beat Philly, the Jets (when they were 3-0) and the Giants when they were 5-0. On the other hand, the Pats beat a decent Chargers team, but also won games against Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo and the Jets. All four of those teams were horrible. And the Saints were winning their games as impressively as the Patriots were winning their games. The only difference is that New Orleans is a couple of thousand miles away from Bristol, Connecticut and has a fewer residents than the greater Boston area. Most of the population still hasn’t returned since Hurricane Katrina. The fact that New Orleans is winning games in style, and is on pace to run the table, in a city that still hasn’t fully recovered from the greatest national disaster of our time, makes the 2009 Saints 100 times the story that the 2007 Patriots were. Yet, ESPN is very late arriving to the party. If you still think that ESPN is more interested in reporting the news instead of making up what they think the news is, then you are clueless. Stop reading this page immediately; I don’t want your support. Go turn on ESPN and watch another hour about Tiger Woods or who the next failure at Notre Dame will be.

I realize I’m getting ahead of myself. Up until a couple of weeks ago, I didn’t think that either New Orleans or Indianapolis would run the table. That didn’t mean I wasn’t paying attention to them like a certain network. I just figured someone would trip each team up somewhere along the way. The Colts toughest game is this week against Tennessee. Other than that, they play the collapsing Broncos, the Jaguars the Jets and the Bills. They may begin resting their starters soon. The Jags and Jets may have enough if the Colts sit Manning and others. If they don’t sit players, they should win the remainder of their games. They should also run through what has become a soft AFC in the playoffs.

The Saints’ remaining schedule looks like this: at Washington, at Atlanta, December Dallas, Tampa and at Carolina. The game in Atlanta appears to be their last chance to stumble. And the Falcons may be without their two best players. No, I’m not counting Dallas until they prove they can win after Thanksgiving. Futhermore, the Saints can’t afford to rest their starters since Minnesota is nipping at their heels for home field advantage. So it’s likely they’ll be playing everyone the rest of the way. The NFC playoff road may be a bit tougher for New Orleans, but they’ve already bashed the Eagles, Giants and Falcons this season. They match-up very well against the Vikings. Only the Cardinals could cause them some trouble.

Anyway, this Saints team is as fun to watch as the Patriots were in 2007. It’s even a better story because the Saints aren't comprised or coached by assholes. Unfortunately, the Redskins are caught on the tracks this week. The Saints defense, while good, tends to give up big plays because their secondary is comprised entirely of ball-hawkers. I’m not all that impressed with what Gregg Williams has done there. A lot of the decent numbers the Saints D has put up are because they are able to be aggressive since their offense is so good. It’s obviously the offense that will be the major concern for the Redskins.

Getting Albert Haynesworth back will certainly help. It will allow the Skins to get some pressure on Brees while dropping six or seven back to cover the receivers. But if you saw the New England-New Orleans game, it doesn’t really matter. Brees is in such a zone right now that he is perfectly placing throws into double coverage. The arsenal of Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meacham, Lance Moore and our old friend Jeremy Shockey are nearly impossible to cover anyway. Add in two decent running backs (Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas) with a very good offensive line, and there are pretty much no weaknesses on this team. They are so good that Reggie Bush is basically limited to 10-15 snaps when he is healthy. This game probably won’t be pretty to watch if you are a Skins fan, but if you want to see how good an offense can be, then you should tune in to watch New Orleans.

NFL Week 13: A Case Of (Record) Inflation

Disclaimer: I posted my picks last week on Wednesday. I was under the assumption that Ben Roethlisberger would start. There is no way in the world I would have picked the Steelers and Dennis Dixon in Baltimore had I known. I'm changing that pick retroactively. So last week's record was 10-5 (again) and I was 8-6-1 against the spread. Maestro, record for the season if you please:

Overall: 114-51 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 92-70-3

THURSDAY

New York Jets (5-6)(-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-7)
8:20 p.m. Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ont.)
One of the reasons the Bills have been terrible instead of completely horrendous in the last few seasons is the homefield advantage they get in the last two months of the season. No team likes to go to Buffalo in late fall or early winter. By playing in a dome in another country, the Bills give that advantage away.
Pick: Jets

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (7-4)(-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-8)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Denver didn’t save their season against the Giants, but they may have put New York out of their misery. I so want to pick the Chiefs here.
Pick: Broncos

Oakland Raiders (3-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
All is not well in Pittsburgh. There is a three game losing streak. There is finger-pointing in the locker room. There are the diminishing playoff hopes. If Ben Roethlisberger isn’t healthy and can’t help the Steelers get a win here, there might be a mini revolt.
Pick: Steelers

Houston Texans (5-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)(-1)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
How many different ways can the Texans choke against teams in their division? They are amassing a resume that looks very similar to the Redskins.
Pick: Jaguars

New England Patriots (7-4)(-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
1:00 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
It was really fun to watch a team run up the score on the Patriots. Actually, fun doesn’t begin to describe it. Unabashed joy is a more appropriate term.
Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (5-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (11-0)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
That was a brilliant drive by Tennessee and Vince Young to beat Arizona. I was glad I got to watch it on the Redzone channel. I haven’t been a big fan of Redzone, since you have to have the attention span of a 5-year-old to avoid frustration when they constantly switch off games. Plus, Scott Hansen (who I know personally) comes off as a complete phony as the channel’s host. Still, I was happy I was able to watch the end of that game instead of the FOX “Game of the Week” between the Bears and Vikings (ugh). Now everyone is starting to overrate Young and the Titans based on a hot month. This is still the same team that went 0-6. I don’t see them winning in Indy unless the Colts already begin resting their starters.
Pick: Colts

Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)(-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
This might be another one of those games I switch later in the week depending on the health of the Falcons star players. As of now, I’ll take the relatively healthy Eagles. If Matt Ryan plays, I’m taking the Falcons and the points.
Pick: Eagles

Detroit Lions (2-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
The media’s stat of the week has centered around the Bengals. Five of the last six teams that have swept their division have gone to the Super Bowl. Excuse me if I’m not buying this hype over a franchise that has been to one playoff game in the past 20 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if either Pittsburgh or Baltimore rallied to make the race for the division title interesting.
Pick: Bengals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-7)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
As bad as Carolina’s looked with Jake Delhomme, they’ll look even worse without him.
Pick: Buccaneers

St. Louis Rams (1-10) vs. Chicago Bears (4-7)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
As bad as the Bears looked with Kyle Orton last year, they’ve looked even worse without him this season.
Pick: Bears

San Diego Chargers (8-3)(-13) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-10)
4:05 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Time for Norv to put the Chargers on cruise control until January. Look for San Diego to go 11-5, win a playoff game against a team they shouldn’t beat, then choke their second playoff game away. It’s like clockwork.
Pick: Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (8-3)(-2.5) vs. New York Giants (6-5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
This would normally be where Eli Manning throws three or four picks and the Giants season goes awry. Fortunately for Manning and the Giants, the calendar now reads December, and they are playing a Cowboys team led by Tony Romo. Good enough for me.
Pick: Giants

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-7)(-1)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Since I have tickets to the Cardinals-49ers game next week (more on that when the time arrives), I would appreciate it if the 49ers could win here and make next week’s game somewhat meaningful.
Pick: 49ers

Minnesota Vikings (10-1)(-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (7-4)
8:20 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
The teams that Minnesota has played so far have a combined 45-76 record. So enough with all this Brett Favre crap. Other than two wins against Green Bay (and I refuse to believe that Green Bay is really as good as their record), the other two games the Vikings have been tested in didn’t go that well. They were beaten soundly in Pittsburgh and they beat Baltimore only when the Ravens’ former kicker missed a last second field goal. The other seven wins have come against Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, Seattle and Chicago. Not impressed. Now they get a Cardinals team that may be without its quarterback. Then they’ll get a Cincinnati team that is already trying to choke away their division lead. That’s followed by games against Carolina, Chicago and the Giants (who may be eliminated from the race at that point). Even if Minnesota ends up 15-1, I’m not going to be impressed.
Pick: Cardinals

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (6-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-4)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Lambeau Field
Weather forcast for Monday night in Green Bay: 20 degrees, windy and a high probability of snow.
Pick: Packers

Maryland Basketball: Unable To Send Text Message

Maryland Terrapins (4-2) at
Indiana Hoosiers (3-3)
Assembly Hall - Bloomington, IN
ACC/Big Ten Challenge

If you are a guard dominated team, eventually you are going to have to make shots. The most alarming trend for Maryland during their wasted trip to Maui wasn’t the deficiency on the offensive boards. It wasn’t the fact that opponents were able to make threes. It wasn’t the continued failure of Greivis Vasquez to take over a big game like he did last season. It was the complete inability by any of the five guards to hit shots. Not just any shots, but wide open shots. Watching the three games in Maui, it was hard to complain about the majority of the shots Maryland took. Many of the shots were good looks. They just couldn’t hit them. For a team that made crucial shots during crucial stretches of crucial games last season, it was extremely frustrating to watch Vasquez, Eric Hayes, Sean Mosley, Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker all go cold at the same time. It was really remarkable. I can’t remember the last time a good team missed that many open shots during the course three games.

There were other problems as well, and many of them were obvious and glaring. The fact Jin Soo Choi sees any playing time is a real problem. It’s always hard to question Gary Williams, but you really have to wonder what Choi is contributing when he’s on the court. He’s never going to be a strong interior player. He looks hesitant every time he passes the ball. He’s supposedly a shooter, but I think the three or four shots he took during the tournament missed by an average of 15 feet. Other than having five fouls to give, there isn’t anything to like.

The problems in the interior will be solved somewhat when Dino Gregory returns and Steve Goins gets completely healthy. The only problem for Maryland is Gregory will miss the Indiana and Villanova games before returning from suspension. That wasn’t a problem at this point last week. But after missing chances to get a quality win or two, the Terps desperately need the Indiana game tonight and the Villanova game is as close to a non-conference must win as a December game can get. If Maryland picked up a real win in Maui (Chaminade doesn’t count), then all they’d have to do is beat Indiana and win 8 or 9 conference games. Now they have to win both games, or they have to somehow find 10 conference wins on their schedule. Not sure if they’ll be able to do that.

A lot of people already put down the game tonight as a victory. It’s true that the Hoosiers are far removed from the team that Maryland faced in the 2002 National Championship Game. And it’s true that Indiana is far removed from their glorious past. It’s also true that Indiana may easily be the worst team in the Big Ten for the second year running. The Hoosiers have Kelvin Sampson, his cell phone and text messages to thank for all that. This is a team that has already lost to Ole Miss, George Mason and Boston U. Not Boston College…Boston U. And they almost lost to South Carolina-Upstate at home. The only convincing wins they have are over Northwestern State and Howard, a perennial bottom feeder in the MEAC. It’s hard to believe that Indiana could ever put out a product this dreadful. But it’s a program that has been hit by a quadruple-whammy of NCAA sanctions, NBA defections (Eric Gordon), transfers and coaching changes.

However, this is a true road game for Maryland. Assembly Hall is never an easy place to play, regardless of the Indiana team on the floor. Tom Crean is a remarkable coach, building Marquette back up after the program stagnated in the 1980’s and early 90’s. And while this current team may be bad, they are heads and shoulders above the 6-26 team that was forced on a death march last season. Crean had a very nice recruiting class come in this past year. Maurice Creek is a 6’5” slasher that is averaging over 16 points a game. Christian Watford is averaging a respectable 12 and 7 per. Derek Elston doesn’t start, but is the first man off the bench. He chips in 8 and 5 in only about 16 minutes a game. Also contributing is Georgetown transfer Jeremiah Rivers. Little Racist III tried to run him out of town after thinking he was white, only to be reminded that Rivers’ father is Celtics coach Doc. Jeremiah still doesn’t score a lot, but he’s a Sean Mosley clone. He’ll grab rebounds (averaging almost six per game) and he also averages five assists per contest. Because Indiana is young and the expectations are so low, Crean can be liberal with his substitutions. Ten players see at least eight minutes or more of playing time per game. And despite being undersized, Indiana is pretty much even with their opponents in terms of rebounding.

While Maryland tends to play down in games like this (like at Virginia, for example) the name on the opponents’ jersey and the atmosphere of Assembly Hall will help remind the Terps that this is a team that is easily capable of knocking them off. Crean and Indiana are desperately looking for a big time win that will signal to their large fan base and the rest of college basketball that the Hoosiers aren’t far from returning to prominence. A nationally televised game would be the perfect place to do that. Despite all that, this is a game Maryland should win. Indiana is not much better than the Fairfield’s and New Hampshire’s of the world. Closer than the experts think.

Maryland 71
Indiana 58

As for the ACC’s Annual Beatdown of the Big Ten Challenge, this might be the year for the Midwesterners! They are 0-10 in this event. They got a big win last night with Penn State beating Virginia. I think Maryland, Duke (over Wisconsin), Virginia Tech (over Iowa) and Clemson (over Illinois) are locks for the ACC. Purdue (over Wake), Ohio State (over FSU) and Michigan (over BC) are locks for the Big Ten. Michigan State should be favored, even on the road, against UNC. Minnesota should have the slight edge over Miami. Northwestern and NC State is a toss-up. I think the Big Ten finally grabs this even in the slimmest of margins (6-5). If they don’t win this year, then I don’t know when they’ll ever be able to win it.