NFL Week 16: Fun At .500

A poor record in the late games last week made me 9-6 overall. I was even worse against the spread. 5-9-1 is completely unacceptable, and by far my worst record of the season. Here are the yearly numbers to date:

Overall: 144-66 (68%)
Vs. Spread: 112-93-5

FRIDAY

San Diego Chargers (11-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-7)(-3)
8:30 p.m. LP Field
Two of the 12 teams either in the playoffs or still mathematically alive in the AFC. I think someone figured out a scenario earlier this week that the six teams tied at 7-7 and the two teams tied at 8-6 could all finish in a tie at the end of the year. I’d love to see the NFL figure out the tiebreakers on that one.
Pick: Chargers

SUNDAY

Seattle Seahawks (5-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (9-5)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
If you honestly think the Packers have a chance at going to the Super Bowl, let me enter last week’s game as Exhibit A against that idea. Ben Roethlisberger was able to put up 503 yards on the Packers secondary. Just think what Drew Brees, Kurt Warner or Donovan McNabb would be able to do.
Pick: Packers

Oakland Raiders (5-9) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-11)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Before we consider this the weekly “Oh my goodness, why are they playing this” game, consider these two things. First, the Raiders now have wins over the Eagles, Steelers, Bengals and Broncos. Not too shabby of a resume. I wouldn’t compare Jamarcus Russell to Johnny Unitas (which Gus Johnson actually did last week), but he looked like an actual quarterback on that last minute drive against Denver. Second, everytime the Browns have played in a game like this (against the Lions and Chiefs), the games have been very entertaining. It may actually be worth tuning in.
Pick: Browns

Kansas City Chiefs (3-11) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I know the Bengals own every tie-breaker imaginable, but if they aren’t careful, they can still lose this division. If they fail to win here, I doubt they’ll be able to win at New York next week.
Pick: Bengals

Buffalo Bills (5-9) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-7)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
I believe I was the only one that had the Falcons falling back towards .500 this season. And I couldn’t be more right. They’ve allowed 312 points while scoring 312 points. They are 5-2 at home and 2-5 on the road. That’s pretty much the standard definition of a .500 team.
Pick: Falcons

Houston Texans (7-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-7)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
Neither one of these teams can get out of their own way in important games. So in what is an elimination game for both squads, I predict both teams will keep trying to figure out ways to lose. Unfortunately, one of these teams will even fail trying to do that and somehow win this game…before losing next week.
Pick: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers (6-8) vs. New York Giants (8-6)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
After seeing Carolina pound Minnesota for 60 minutes, it makes you wonder what the Panthers could have achieved if they had focused on their run game from Week 1, instead of putting their season into the hands of Jake Delhomme.
Pick: Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-1)(-14)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
The wrath of Drew Brees and Sean Peyton will come down on the Bucs. Not the best week to be playing these guys.
Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7) vs. New England Patriots (9-5)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Of the six teams that would make the AFC playoffs as of today, only the Broncos look worse than New England. I’d seriously consider taking Cincinnati or Baltimore over these clowns. They haven’t looked right since they got spanked by New Orleans.
Pick: Patriots

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
The only way the Ravens managed to beat Pittsburgh the first time was in overtime. And Pittsburgh had their third string quarterback starting. And the game was in Baltimore. Did I mention the Ravens needed overtime to win? Ben Roethlisberger is back and fresh off a 503 yard performance (I feel that didn’t get enough attention in the national media. That could easily be a top five passing performance in the past 20-25 years…and no one seems to be talking about it). Since the Steelers still own the Ravens, I’m predicting a little 2008 déjà vu.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis Rams (1-13) vs. Arizona Cardinals (9-5)(-14)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
I don’t think Vegas could make the line high enough for this game. 14 is probably way to low. I would have started at 17.5 and gone up as the week progressed.
Pick: Cardinals

Detroit Lions (2-12) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)(-12.5)
4:05 p.m. Candlestick Park
Here’s the “Oh my goodness, why are they playing this” game of the week. The 49ers weren’t close to selling out the meaningful Monday Night game against Arizona. I doubt they’ll get 50% attendance for this one.
Pick: 49ers

Denver Broncos (8-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)(-7)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
As great a potential story as Brian Dawkins returning to Philly, injuring half the Eagles offense, and leading Denver to a much needed win would be, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Not with the Broncos offense.
Pick: Eagles

New York Jets (7-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (14-0)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
Kiss the Jets playoff hopes goodbye. New Jersey had every advantage going for them last week. They had a beat up Falcons team playing in frigid temperatures. The Falcons had learned the night before that they were officially eliminated from the playoffs. What did the Jets do? They decided to take the second half of that game off. It was a risky strategy. It didn’t pay off. Now the Jets go on the road, against a much better team, and a team that’s had three extra days to prepare for this game. Just show me the pick.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

Minnesota Vikings (11-3)(-7) vs. Chicago Bears (5-9)
8:30 p.m. Soldier Field
No, I don’t care at all about what’s going on in Minnesota with Brett Favre and Brad Childress. Knowing the way Favre operates, it’s not surprising in the least. It doesn’t matter in the long run. The only team Minnesota can beat in the NFC Playoffs would be Green Bay. New Orleans, Philly, Arizona and Dallas would all beat the Vikings at this point.
Pick: Vikings