NFL Week 13: A Case Of (Record) Inflation

Disclaimer: I posted my picks last week on Wednesday. I was under the assumption that Ben Roethlisberger would start. There is no way in the world I would have picked the Steelers and Dennis Dixon in Baltimore had I known. I'm changing that pick retroactively. So last week's record was 10-5 (again) and I was 8-6-1 against the spread. Maestro, record for the season if you please:

Overall: 114-51 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 92-70-3

THURSDAY

New York Jets (5-6)(-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-7)
8:20 p.m. Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ont.)
One of the reasons the Bills have been terrible instead of completely horrendous in the last few seasons is the homefield advantage they get in the last two months of the season. No team likes to go to Buffalo in late fall or early winter. By playing in a dome in another country, the Bills give that advantage away.
Pick: Jets

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (7-4)(-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-8)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Denver didn’t save their season against the Giants, but they may have put New York out of their misery. I so want to pick the Chiefs here.
Pick: Broncos

Oakland Raiders (3-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
All is not well in Pittsburgh. There is a three game losing streak. There is finger-pointing in the locker room. There are the diminishing playoff hopes. If Ben Roethlisberger isn’t healthy and can’t help the Steelers get a win here, there might be a mini revolt.
Pick: Steelers

Houston Texans (5-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)(-1)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
How many different ways can the Texans choke against teams in their division? They are amassing a resume that looks very similar to the Redskins.
Pick: Jaguars

New England Patriots (7-4)(-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
1:00 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
It was really fun to watch a team run up the score on the Patriots. Actually, fun doesn’t begin to describe it. Unabashed joy is a more appropriate term.
Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (5-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (11-0)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
That was a brilliant drive by Tennessee and Vince Young to beat Arizona. I was glad I got to watch it on the Redzone channel. I haven’t been a big fan of Redzone, since you have to have the attention span of a 5-year-old to avoid frustration when they constantly switch off games. Plus, Scott Hansen (who I know personally) comes off as a complete phony as the channel’s host. Still, I was happy I was able to watch the end of that game instead of the FOX “Game of the Week” between the Bears and Vikings (ugh). Now everyone is starting to overrate Young and the Titans based on a hot month. This is still the same team that went 0-6. I don’t see them winning in Indy unless the Colts already begin resting their starters.
Pick: Colts

Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)(-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
This might be another one of those games I switch later in the week depending on the health of the Falcons star players. As of now, I’ll take the relatively healthy Eagles. If Matt Ryan plays, I’m taking the Falcons and the points.
Pick: Eagles

Detroit Lions (2-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
The media’s stat of the week has centered around the Bengals. Five of the last six teams that have swept their division have gone to the Super Bowl. Excuse me if I’m not buying this hype over a franchise that has been to one playoff game in the past 20 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if either Pittsburgh or Baltimore rallied to make the race for the division title interesting.
Pick: Bengals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-7)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
As bad as Carolina’s looked with Jake Delhomme, they’ll look even worse without him.
Pick: Buccaneers

St. Louis Rams (1-10) vs. Chicago Bears (4-7)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
As bad as the Bears looked with Kyle Orton last year, they’ve looked even worse without him this season.
Pick: Bears

San Diego Chargers (8-3)(-13) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-10)
4:05 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Time for Norv to put the Chargers on cruise control until January. Look for San Diego to go 11-5, win a playoff game against a team they shouldn’t beat, then choke their second playoff game away. It’s like clockwork.
Pick: Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (8-3)(-2.5) vs. New York Giants (6-5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
This would normally be where Eli Manning throws three or four picks and the Giants season goes awry. Fortunately for Manning and the Giants, the calendar now reads December, and they are playing a Cowboys team led by Tony Romo. Good enough for me.
Pick: Giants

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-7)(-1)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Since I have tickets to the Cardinals-49ers game next week (more on that when the time arrives), I would appreciate it if the 49ers could win here and make next week’s game somewhat meaningful.
Pick: 49ers

Minnesota Vikings (10-1)(-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (7-4)
8:20 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
The teams that Minnesota has played so far have a combined 45-76 record. So enough with all this Brett Favre crap. Other than two wins against Green Bay (and I refuse to believe that Green Bay is really as good as their record), the other two games the Vikings have been tested in didn’t go that well. They were beaten soundly in Pittsburgh and they beat Baltimore only when the Ravens’ former kicker missed a last second field goal. The other seven wins have come against Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, Seattle and Chicago. Not impressed. Now they get a Cardinals team that may be without its quarterback. Then they’ll get a Cincinnati team that is already trying to choke away their division lead. That’s followed by games against Carolina, Chicago and the Giants (who may be eliminated from the race at that point). Even if Minnesota ends up 15-1, I’m not going to be impressed.
Pick: Cardinals

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (6-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-4)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Lambeau Field
Weather forcast for Monday night in Green Bay: 20 degrees, windy and a high probability of snow.
Pick: Packers