Off The Mark: NFL Week 8 in Review

Well, that Redskins game was real interesting. Until kickoff.

Maybe the new theme to the website is bad luck. I’ve never seen the Redskins play worse than they did. And I remember the back-to-back 3-13 and 4-12 seasons of 1993 and 94. Even the first five games under Marty in 2001 weren’t that bad.

Give some credit to the Giants. I overlooked Tiki Barber because the Redskins defense had been so great against the run. After writing the game column Friday, I learned that Cornelius Griffin would play very few snaps, and that Joe Salave’a was still seriously banged up. Not that it would have made much of a difference. The Redskins may have only lost by 28 if they were healthy.

The trend for opposing teams now is to run to the left, the Redskins right, side of the line. Teams are attacking the combination of Warrick Holdman/Chris Clemons and cornerback Walt Harris. The Giants abused this side on Sunday. Run left, counter left, sweep left, toss left, etc…Phillip Daniels, the right defensive end, did his job by forcing Barber either towards the sidelines or back to the middle of the field. He got great penetration up field on most running plays. The end, on sweep or counter plays, is supposed to force the running back to make a decision about where to run. He isn’t necessarily supposed to make the tackle. The linebackers, corners and safeties are supposed to come up in run support and finish the play off.

Unfortunately, no one behind Phillip could make a tackle. I counted 15 missed tackles by the Skins. Harris missed six, Holdman missed 4 before being benched, and Clemons missed another there. Maybe it is time to consider playing…oh, I don’t know…your Pro Bowl outside linebacker Lavar Arrington on the right side.

Combine the missed tackles with at least eight dropped passes (three by Robert Royal, including a potential touchdown pass), three fumbles, an interception and several dumb penalties. The Redskins handed this game to the Giants. Other than the interception, every other Redskin mistake was unforced.

Even with the horrible showing, this was not a game the Skins needed to win. As I said Friday, it was must win for the Giants because it was a home division game. The Skins already have a division win on the road and they get another shot at the Giants in December at FedEx Field. The game this week against the Eagles, because of the loss, is pretty much a must have for the Skins to keep pace with the G-men until then. And what’s with the schedule? This will be the first division home game for the Skins. It shouldn’t take eight weeks to have one. Ridiculous.

Elsewhere around the league:

Am I the only one enjoying the fact that Brett Farve is suffering with the horrendous Packers in what could be his final season (hopefully). Karma has come around and is finally getting Farve on the field. What he did to Javon Walker this off-season was disgusting. He called out Walker because Javon was holding out. Walker was getting paid less than one million dollars a year, and he was one of the best receivers in the league. If anyone in the NFL deserved more cash, it was Walker. But Farve calls him out and pits the entire organization and city against Walker. So Walker decides to play for very little money (in terms of the NFL) for the benefit of the team. What happens in week one? Walker tears his ACL and is out for the year. He may never be the same again. Thanks a lot Brett. I didn’t see Farve apologizing to Walker, or offering some of his enormous and un-earned salary to offset the losses that Walker will have this off-season in a contract year. This rest of this season is a just punishment for Farve in my opinion…

Shhhhh...the Carolina Panthers are quietly 5-2. But look past the record. They are dominating games with a punishing running attack and a relentless defense. Right now, they are the best team in the NFC. This is a team playing with purpose right now. The media jumped on the bandwagon before the season started, but jumped right off after the opening day loss to the Saints. After Carolina beats Tampa Bay this weekend, the media will want back on. For the record, I never left the Carolina bandwagon, so everyone outside the immediate Charlotte area will have to take a number and get behind me...

I knew I shouldn’t have picked Chris Simms. I said on Thursday that I would never be foolish enough to pick a team that was led by Simms. He couldn’t win in college, and he certainly can’t win in the pros. But he was playing the 49ers. How could I pick the 49ers? If there was ever a time for Simms to win a game, this was this one. Serves me right, I guess. It won’t happen again. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me…

With that said, I also knew I should have picked the Rams to beat Jacksonville. I just had a feeling. But I tried to be rational and pick the Jags. Even with those two losses, I’m a solid 8-4 on the week going into the Monday-nighter…

As I said a month ago, the Broncos are for real. The Mike Anderson-Tatum Bell combination is almost unstoppable. As long as Jake Plummer isn’t put in situations where he has the potential to make mistakes, the Broncos could be the only team to challenge Indianapolis in the AFC this year…

Brad Johnson is still in the league?…

The hype surrounding Teddy Bruschi was even worse than I could have imagined. ESPN has outdone itself. Every spare second the network had during the game, they cut away to Bruschi or his wife (who was not very attractive, I thought a player like Bruschi should be able to do much better for himself). It was like watching a Wake Forest basketball game and having ESPN cut away to Eric Williams’ ugly mother 50 times during the broadcast. ESPN even missed a crucial fumble late in the 4th quarter of a close game by cutting away to a sideline interview with Patriots owner Robert Craft. The topic? Bruschi, of course.
Play-by-play broadcaster Mike Patrick even said early in the game: “I think that even the Bills are rooting for Bruschi to do well tonight.” Mike…are you serious? Maybe they are rooting for him in the game of life, or in other games, but not when they are playing against him. That’s not how the NFL works. And I hate call out Patrick, who is one of the best play-by-play guys in the NFL. He is a real nice guy and I have had the chance to meet him a couple of times at some of the games I broadcasted back in college. But that statement was uncalled for. By the way, with Bruschi back, the Patriots defense looked terrible as Willis McGahee ran all over them. Maybe that will slow down the ESPN hype machine…but I doubt it.

Redskins at Giants: Eli's Waiting

Washington Redskins (4-2) vs. New York Giants (4-2)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium

Finally, another NFC East game. The Skins already have one division win on the road. They are only team in the division without a loss in conference play. If they manage to steal this one, I don’t care what Sean Salisbury or any of the ESPN hotshots have to say. The Redskins will be in the East’s driver’s seat. Not the Eagles, not the Cowboys, just the Redskins.

But…they have to win. The Giants will be waiting for them in the swamplands and pig farms of upper New Jersey. This is a must win game for the Giants. They’ve already lost to Dallas on the road, they have the Eagles coming up in a couple of weeks, and they can’t afford to lose at home. Especially in the division. Especially since they can’t win on the road.

Aside from the must-win mentality, the Giants should possess the emotional edge. As most people know (and if you didn’t, FOX will remind you 143 times during the game), the Giants longtime owner, Wellington Mara, died on Tuesday. Obviously the Giants will be dedicating this game, and their season to him. They also have an angry Antonio Pierce ("Pierce mad at Redskins, Pierce angry, Pierce smash!"), who the Redskins lowed-balled in the off-season, and let him sign with the G-men (more on that in a minute). With first place on the line, add in the home crowd and the Giants will certainly have an emotional advantage.

However, I believe the Redskins have the on-field and talent advantage. Let’s take a look at the units for these two teams head-to-head. For the sake of argument, I’m not even going to count the Redskins destruction of the 49ers last week. As far as the team statistics go, I’m going to throw that game out.

The Giants offense is one of the most balanced offenses the league. They average 108.5 yards a game on the ground, and 224 yards in the air. As a defensive coordinator, you have to worry about stopping Tiki Barber (as both a running back and receiver out of the backfield), Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer (don’t sleep on Tim Carter either…this guy has some world-class speed). They have deep threats, possession receivers, a physical back-up running back for Barber named Brandon Jacobs and a good o-line. And of course, the Giants have a rapidly maturing Eli Manning (who is still not close to his brother’s skill level yet, I don’t want to hear anymore comparisons between the two this season).

The Redskins defense is certainly one of the best in the league. If you don’t count the whipping they applied to the 49ers (and I don’t, but fortunately, the NFL does), they are giving up only 280 yards a game, which would be good enough for the sixth best defense in the league (they are actually 4th overall counting the game last week). The Redskins front seven can stop any running back in the league. For example: Priest Holmes had 14 carries for 18 yards against the ‘Skins. Tiki may be good, but he is no Priest. He also continues to have fumble issues. The problem for the Redskins comes in stopping the pass. Plaxico doesn’t worry me. In fact, good ol’ Plexiglass is listed as questionable and may not play Sunday. Neither does Toomer or Tiki out of the backfield. The problem is Shockey. Since Lavar is going to get some more PT this week, he will have to help out on Shockey. And pass coverage, especially against a very physical tight end, is one area that Lavar is definitely weak in. If the Skins are forced to drop Lemar Marshall or Marcus Washington into coverage because of Lavar’s inabilities, then their running defense becomes weaker, and that is when Tiki Barber can hurt even a good defense.

The solution is not a great one. The Redskins are going to have to blitz Manning and trust that Springs, Harris, Rogers and Ryan Clark can cover the receivers. Sean Taylor will have to spy his old college teammate Shockey. If Taylor is focused more on Shockey, then it will open up the receivers and backs a bit more than usual. Again, this shouldn't be an issue if Springs and Harris can hang on Burress and Toomer. If the blitz doesn’t get to Manning, it will be a long day. If it does, Shockey is still going to make his plays, but the Redskins will easily be in the game. Whatever the Redskins do, the Giants are going to score some points against them. Which is good news for the Giants because…

…Their defense is really struggling. If you call the Giants offense verses the Redskins defense a toss-up, or even give the slight edge to the G-men, then the match-up between the Skins offense and the Giants defense heavily favors Washington. The only defense in the league that is worse than the Giants belongs to the aforementioned 49ers. And we all know what the Redskins did to the 9ers last week. Even the 0-6 Houston Texans possess a better D. The Giants give up 411 yards a game. Wow, that is dreadful. The Giants are 21st against the run (the Skins offense is 4th best running the ball), 31st against the pass (the Skins are 8th in passing yards) and are 24th in points allowed per game (almost 23 p/game). And here is another defensive woe. The Giants defense is worst in the league in stopping opponents on third down. The Skins have the second-best third down efficiency rating in the NFL. If the Giants defense can’t get off the field, then it won’t matter what Manning, Barber and Shockey do.

If the Giants want to key in on Clinton Portis, then Mark Brunell and the max-protect offensive line schemes are going to torch the depleted Giants secondary all day. If they want to double cover Santana Moss and David Patten, then the Skins will open it up a bit more and kill them with short, precise passes to Chris Cooley, Mike Sellars (who leads all tight ends with 4 touchdowns) and James Thrash, who loves to line up in the slot. If the Giants bring their linebackers a step or two back to compensate, then Portis will light them up on the ground.

So to recap:
Giants offense vs. Redskins defense: Push, or slight advantage Giants
Redskins offense vs. Giants defense: Major advantage Redskins
Coaching match-up: Ha…not Tom Coughlin

The only other x-factor is the Redskins kicking game. John Hall is expected to play now. As the former Jets kicker, he should have plenty of experience kicking in the Meadowlands’ famously tricky winds. Nick Novak, the Maryland rookie, does not. If Hall is still not ready, and Novak has to suit up, then the ‘Skins better pray it doesn’t come down to a last second field goal.

Now to Antonio Pierce. Shut up. You were low-balled by the Redskins because you had one good season. It had nothing to do with being snubbed or with loyalty. You definitely were not worth the 26 million the Giants shelled out. The Giants defensive unit numbers prove that he was a product of the Greg Williams’ system and benefited from taking the field with playmakers like Washington, Taylor, Springs and Fred Smoot. Now that Pierce is the Giants defensive leader, their unit has fallen apart. Pierce is only averaging eight tackles per game, which is strictly average for a middle linebacker. Certainly not worth 26 million. The Giants used to have one of the more feared front seven in all of football. Not anymore. The Skins, meanwhile, are playing just fine with Lemar Marshall at middle linebacker, and Marcus, Lavar and Warrick Holdman on the outside. Ok, that is taken care of.

Here is how I think the game will play out. The Giants, with the obvious emotional advantage, will come out like gangbusters and may even take the lead in the first quarter. The Redskins must hang with the Giants. They don’t need to outplay them, but they can’t afford to allow the G-men to get up by more than a touchdown early. Stem the tide. The ‘Skins should dominate the second and third quarters after the emotional edge disappears and the players from both sides settle down. A couple of typical and untimely Redskins turnovers will keep the Giants in it. Manning will play well in the stretch, but won’t have enough in him to lead another fourth quarter comeback. Brunell, Moss and Cooley will have monster days, Michael “does anyone know a good dentist” Strahan will complain that he was held on every play as he typically does following each loss, and the Skins will finally be taken seriously. I’m guessing Redskins by 7.

NFL Week 8: There Is Something About Bruschi

As I’ve been doing all year on Thursdays, I will pick all the winners (or losers) this week in the NFL. I will pick straight up, and then pick with or against the spread. Since I deleted most of the previous posts, you’ll have to trust me when I say that my straight up pick record is 63-39 (61%). I do a bit worse against the spread, as I have gone 55-46-1.
The one change I am making is that I am no longer going to officially pick the Redskins games. I can’t in good conscious pick against the Redskins. I have decided that I will address the Redskins game every week in a separate column on Fridays. So come back tomorrow for that one.
The spread is based on Thursday, it obviously may change before the games on Sunday. Despite my success, please do not wager money solely based on these picks.

Green Bay Packers (1-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
So what did we learn about the Bengals following last week’s loss against Pittsburgh? This team is still not a serious contender until they beat a worthy opponent. In their two biggest games this season, the Bengals have come out flat and lost. In their Sunday night effort against Jacksonville, they let the Jags grab an early lead and control the game from start to finish. Their game against Pittsburgh was déjà vu. After an apparent Chad Johnson touchdown was ruled incomplete, and the subsequent field goal was no good, Cincinnati never recovered. Pittsburgh dominated the rest of the way.
So far Cincy’s wins have come against Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago, Houston and Tennessee. A real murderers row. Fortunately, the Bengals play Green Bay this week.
PICK: Bengals, but Green Bay covers

Chicago Bears (3-3) vs. Detroit Lions (3-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
It is a game for the top spot in the NFC North, featuring two teams that would struggle to win the Big Ten. So, how to pick between two mediocre teams? I have more confidence in the Bears horrible offense against the atrocious Lions defense, then I do in Jeff Garcia against a solid Bears secondary.
By the way, the Lions have one of the softest schedules in the league. If they can’t finish 8-8, heads should roll.
PICK: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (2-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-2)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
I have never seen ESPN make such a big deal about a 2-4 team. They’ve been showing Paul Edinger’s last second kick to beat Green Bay as if it were a playoff winner. ESPN has showed the replay on every SportsCenter this week at least once. Why is this?
The Panthers are coming off their bye week well rested. Jake Delhomme is back after his injury against Detroit before the bye. I don’t think Captain Smoot will be able to stop the Steve Smith show. Carolina rolls, Minnesota falls to 2-5, ESPN makes a big deal about the Vikings anyway.
PICK: Panthers win, Viks cover

Oakland Raiders (2-4)(-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-5)
1:00 p.m. Adelphia Coliseum
Lamont Jordan is starting to roll, Randy Moss is playing well despite not being healthy, the defense is actually playing better against the run, and the Titans lost to Arizona last week.
PICK: Raiders

Arizona Cardinals (2-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-3)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
The Cowboys should be 6-1. They should be in command of the NFC East. They should be licking their chops at a chance to get a struggling Cardinals team. But they’re not. For the second time this season, Bill Parcells watched his team collapse late in the fourth quarter. How in the world do you lose to Seattle when Shaun Alexander rushes for only 61 yards, and Matt Hasslebeck throws three picks? Embarrassing.
Now to this game. If it was in the desert, I may seriously consider the Cards. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald have terrific speed and should create trouble against the Dallas secondary (see Moss, Santana, 9/19/2005). The problem: Josh McCown will have a tough time finding his receivers when he has his back on the turf.
PICK: Cowboys

Cleveland Browns (2-4) vs. Houston Texans (0-6)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
The Texans are FAVORED???? HAHAHAHAHA…
PICK: Browns

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)(-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-4)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
This game, in my opinion, is the toughest one of the week to predict. On one hand, you have Jacksonville. Good quarterback, running back, receiving core and defense. They are also coming off the bye week. But, Fred Taylor is still banged up (Really, when is he not. It should be news when Fred Taylor is actually healthy.). Byron Leftwich hasn’t done anything special and still hasn’t had one of those games where everyone says, “Wow, this kid really is the quarterback of the future.” And that defense has been susceptible to long scoring drives from time to time.
Then, there are the Rams. A team that has lost its head coach (which, depending on who you ask, may be a positive) and their starting quarterback. But, St. Louis gets this one at home, where they are outstanding. Jamie Martin actually looks pretty good (35-50, 332 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT). And the new guy, Joe Vitt, actually wants to run the ball with Stephen Jackson and Marshall Faulk.
However, I think Jacksonville will stop the run, force Martin to beat them, and take advantage of a few turnovers.
PICK: Jaguars

Miami Dolphins (2-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-5)(-2)
4:00 p.m. Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA
The Man Upstairs (either God or the NFL replay official, your choice) clearly does not want the Saints to win. Their stadium was partially destroyed, forcing the Saints to become nomads. The NFL gave the Giants a gift ninth home game at the expense of New Orleans. They were on the wrong end of a 52-3 beating by Green Bay. And the last two weeks the Saints have lost on horrible calls by the refs. It stops becoming a coincidence at some point.
PICK: Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-4)(-6)
4:00 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Ok, it is possible to stop LaDainian Tomlinson. Too bad the Chiefs won’t be able to do it. Too bad for the Chargers that Marty Schottenheimer is their coach and there is no way they will be able to stop Priest Holmes. The Chiefs are really six point underdogs? I’m feeling an upset.
PICK: Chiefs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)(-11.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-5)
4:00 p.m. Monster/3-Com/Candlestick Park
Thanks to an injury to Brian Griese, Chris Simms is now the starting quarterback for Tampa. Currently, the thing Simms is best known for is being the son of former Giants quarterback and horrendous football commentator Phil Simms. When we last saw Chris, he was being benched and booed at the University of Texas. I saw how horrible Simms looked at UT. I will never pick a team led by Chris Simms. Not in a million years. Never….Wait, they’re playing the 49ers? Dammit.
PICK: Buccaneers (and yes, they’ll probably cover the double-digit spread…they’re playing the 49ers)

Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) vs. Denver Broncos (5-2)(-3.5)
4:00 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
For the second time this year, the Eagles snatched a victory from the jaws of defeat as they won last week on a blocked field goal return for a touchdown against San Diego (who, for the fourth time this year, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory). I just have a feeling the Eagles are going to implode sooner or later, with the emphasis on sooner. Donovan McNabb is suffering from a variety of injuries. I think this week it is the sports hernia, bruised abdomen, sore shoulder, twisted ankle, a scrape on his knee, a boo-boo on his pinky and he misses his mommy. Don’t worry, if I missed any, ESPN will fill you in as they keep a 24-7 eye on the health of Dinged-up Donovon. This McNabb-Owens thing still hasn’t boiled over yet (and it will, trust me). It has been way too quiet in Philly so far, look for problems in this feud in the next few weeks. Andy Reid refuses to run the ball. And this defense, which was marvelous last year, has looked average in most contests. They are especially weak against the run (although I’ll admit, they did an incredible job against LT last week).
Enter the tag-team duo of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson. They have carved up every D they have seen this year. Bell even broke some long runs against the Redskins 4th ranked defense. If they minimize the amount of chances Jake Plummer gets to make mistakes, and they tee-off on McNabb early and often, Denver should win.
PICK: Broncos, but Philly covers. I see a last second Jason Elam field goal to win it.

Buffalo Bills (3-4) vs. New England Patriots (3-3)(-9)
8:30 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Let me guess what the story line will be for this one. “Teddy Bruschi this, Teddy Bruschi that.” “Teddy Bruschi is so courageous.” “Teddy Bruschi means so much to the Patriots.” “Teddy Bruschi, Teddy Bruschi, Teddy Bruschi.” “Oh, did we mention Teddy Bruschi?”
I would just love to see Willis McGahee and the Bills run all over Teddy Bruschi. Chances are Bruschi won’t even play and that the Bills are going to lose anyway.
PICK: Patriots

MONDAY
Baltimore Ravens (2-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)(-10)
9:00 p.m. Heinz Field
The Steelers are going to win going away. It shouldn’t be close. Now, let me talk about the Ravens-Redskins fan “feud”.
I’ve gone months without discussing this, and I’ll probably dedicate a column to it later. Redskins fans DO NOT CARE about Baltimore. We concern ourselves with Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants. Why do the Ravens fans feel it necessary, now that their team and season is in the tank, to cling to hope that the Redskins will lose so they can feel better about themselves. Why not root against Pittsburgh or Cincinnati? As an Oriole fan, I root actively against the Yankees. But the Yankees and the Orioles are in direct competition with one another. The Redskins and Ravens play once every four years. It doesn’t make any sense. Now that that is somewhat over, I don’t want to hear anymore about Double Homicide Lewis, Drug Dealer Lewis, or Ugly Ed Reed anymore this season. Enough about this defense, the team is about to go 5-11.
PICK: Steelers

Reminder, come back tomorrow as I break down how the Redskins will beat the Giants.

New Theme

Ok, obviously I didn't do a very good job keeping this page updated during the summer. But as I said in my somewhat new, somewhat copied and pasted introduction, we are going to try some new stuff here. It is going to be more column-style based posts instead of me ranting on anything and everything. Sorry that all the posts from the past couple of months have been deleted.

Introduction

Hey everyone. I know everyone and their mothers have a page like this. So my insight will probably be as valuable as a Canadian penny. But, I'm going to try and keep this thing interesting and up to date.

My name is Mark and I love sports. That will be the primary content found on this thing. I am going to use this site to predict the NFL games each week. I've been doing this for years and usually do better than all of the "experts" and former players. I will try to predict ACC college basketball when it starts in November. I haven't figured out what I'm going to do in the period from April to August when there are no football or college hoops to talk about. We'll have to wait and see I guess.

I want to start off by saying that I am a huge Redskins fan (haven't missed watching a game since 1989) but I will try to be un-biased when talking about the NFL in general. The same cannot be said for my future discussions on college hoops. I was born and raised in Maryland and attended the outstanding University in College Park. So while I plan to discuss the entire ACC, the material will obviously include a Maryland bias.

So most of you will probably wonder what ability I have to break down the NFL and college hoops. While I haven't played organized sports since high school, I did serve as a play-by-play broadcaster at UMD for the best student radio station in the country, WMUC. I spent four years broadcasting football and basketball for Maryland, and it was my job to analyze the two sports. Just because I'm not an ex-college athlete, doesn't mean I don't know the games. Former players aren't the only ones who knew that Chad Pennington wouldn't last a month before getting seriously hurt again (I predicted that in August), the Vikings were going to be horrible without Randy Moss (Again, I said that in August) or that the Bengals could actually challenge for a playoff spot this season (I think I said that one after the draft in April). I'm most proud of my prediction back in August of 2002, that Carson Palmer - then a senior at USC and a former blue-chip prospect that just about everyone in the media labeled as a bust - would win the Heisman Trophy. I was the only one outside of Los Angeles that got that one right. Or my prediction later that fall that Syracuse would win the NCAA basketball championship. Most didn't have that one either, especially so early in the season. Of course, no one is perfect (for example, my guess that the Philadelphia Eagles would go 8-8 last season and not make the playoffs didn't work out so well). But this site has as much credibility as the next.

I will try to have NFL predictions up every Thursday, and we'll have to play it by ear on ACC hoops. I'll also try to write a column from time to time. Feel free to leave me any comments you want and enjoy my take on the crazy world of sports.