Redskins at Giants: Eli's Waiting

Washington Redskins (4-2) vs. New York Giants (4-2)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium

Finally, another NFC East game. The Skins already have one division win on the road. They are only team in the division without a loss in conference play. If they manage to steal this one, I don’t care what Sean Salisbury or any of the ESPN hotshots have to say. The Redskins will be in the East’s driver’s seat. Not the Eagles, not the Cowboys, just the Redskins.

But…they have to win. The Giants will be waiting for them in the swamplands and pig farms of upper New Jersey. This is a must win game for the Giants. They’ve already lost to Dallas on the road, they have the Eagles coming up in a couple of weeks, and they can’t afford to lose at home. Especially in the division. Especially since they can’t win on the road.

Aside from the must-win mentality, the Giants should possess the emotional edge. As most people know (and if you didn’t, FOX will remind you 143 times during the game), the Giants longtime owner, Wellington Mara, died on Tuesday. Obviously the Giants will be dedicating this game, and their season to him. They also have an angry Antonio Pierce ("Pierce mad at Redskins, Pierce angry, Pierce smash!"), who the Redskins lowed-balled in the off-season, and let him sign with the G-men (more on that in a minute). With first place on the line, add in the home crowd and the Giants will certainly have an emotional advantage.

However, I believe the Redskins have the on-field and talent advantage. Let’s take a look at the units for these two teams head-to-head. For the sake of argument, I’m not even going to count the Redskins destruction of the 49ers last week. As far as the team statistics go, I’m going to throw that game out.

The Giants offense is one of the most balanced offenses the league. They average 108.5 yards a game on the ground, and 224 yards in the air. As a defensive coordinator, you have to worry about stopping Tiki Barber (as both a running back and receiver out of the backfield), Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer (don’t sleep on Tim Carter either…this guy has some world-class speed). They have deep threats, possession receivers, a physical back-up running back for Barber named Brandon Jacobs and a good o-line. And of course, the Giants have a rapidly maturing Eli Manning (who is still not close to his brother’s skill level yet, I don’t want to hear anymore comparisons between the two this season).

The Redskins defense is certainly one of the best in the league. If you don’t count the whipping they applied to the 49ers (and I don’t, but fortunately, the NFL does), they are giving up only 280 yards a game, which would be good enough for the sixth best defense in the league (they are actually 4th overall counting the game last week). The Redskins front seven can stop any running back in the league. For example: Priest Holmes had 14 carries for 18 yards against the ‘Skins. Tiki may be good, but he is no Priest. He also continues to have fumble issues. The problem for the Redskins comes in stopping the pass. Plaxico doesn’t worry me. In fact, good ol’ Plexiglass is listed as questionable and may not play Sunday. Neither does Toomer or Tiki out of the backfield. The problem is Shockey. Since Lavar is going to get some more PT this week, he will have to help out on Shockey. And pass coverage, especially against a very physical tight end, is one area that Lavar is definitely weak in. If the Skins are forced to drop Lemar Marshall or Marcus Washington into coverage because of Lavar’s inabilities, then their running defense becomes weaker, and that is when Tiki Barber can hurt even a good defense.

The solution is not a great one. The Redskins are going to have to blitz Manning and trust that Springs, Harris, Rogers and Ryan Clark can cover the receivers. Sean Taylor will have to spy his old college teammate Shockey. If Taylor is focused more on Shockey, then it will open up the receivers and backs a bit more than usual. Again, this shouldn't be an issue if Springs and Harris can hang on Burress and Toomer. If the blitz doesn’t get to Manning, it will be a long day. If it does, Shockey is still going to make his plays, but the Redskins will easily be in the game. Whatever the Redskins do, the Giants are going to score some points against them. Which is good news for the Giants because…

…Their defense is really struggling. If you call the Giants offense verses the Redskins defense a toss-up, or even give the slight edge to the G-men, then the match-up between the Skins offense and the Giants defense heavily favors Washington. The only defense in the league that is worse than the Giants belongs to the aforementioned 49ers. And we all know what the Redskins did to the 9ers last week. Even the 0-6 Houston Texans possess a better D. The Giants give up 411 yards a game. Wow, that is dreadful. The Giants are 21st against the run (the Skins offense is 4th best running the ball), 31st against the pass (the Skins are 8th in passing yards) and are 24th in points allowed per game (almost 23 p/game). And here is another defensive woe. The Giants defense is worst in the league in stopping opponents on third down. The Skins have the second-best third down efficiency rating in the NFL. If the Giants defense can’t get off the field, then it won’t matter what Manning, Barber and Shockey do.

If the Giants want to key in on Clinton Portis, then Mark Brunell and the max-protect offensive line schemes are going to torch the depleted Giants secondary all day. If they want to double cover Santana Moss and David Patten, then the Skins will open it up a bit more and kill them with short, precise passes to Chris Cooley, Mike Sellars (who leads all tight ends with 4 touchdowns) and James Thrash, who loves to line up in the slot. If the Giants bring their linebackers a step or two back to compensate, then Portis will light them up on the ground.

So to recap:
Giants offense vs. Redskins defense: Push, or slight advantage Giants
Redskins offense vs. Giants defense: Major advantage Redskins
Coaching match-up: Ha…not Tom Coughlin

The only other x-factor is the Redskins kicking game. John Hall is expected to play now. As the former Jets kicker, he should have plenty of experience kicking in the Meadowlands’ famously tricky winds. Nick Novak, the Maryland rookie, does not. If Hall is still not ready, and Novak has to suit up, then the ‘Skins better pray it doesn’t come down to a last second field goal.

Now to Antonio Pierce. Shut up. You were low-balled by the Redskins because you had one good season. It had nothing to do with being snubbed or with loyalty. You definitely were not worth the 26 million the Giants shelled out. The Giants defensive unit numbers prove that he was a product of the Greg Williams’ system and benefited from taking the field with playmakers like Washington, Taylor, Springs and Fred Smoot. Now that Pierce is the Giants defensive leader, their unit has fallen apart. Pierce is only averaging eight tackles per game, which is strictly average for a middle linebacker. Certainly not worth 26 million. The Giants used to have one of the more feared front seven in all of football. Not anymore. The Skins, meanwhile, are playing just fine with Lemar Marshall at middle linebacker, and Marcus, Lavar and Warrick Holdman on the outside. Ok, that is taken care of.

Here is how I think the game will play out. The Giants, with the obvious emotional advantage, will come out like gangbusters and may even take the lead in the first quarter. The Redskins must hang with the Giants. They don’t need to outplay them, but they can’t afford to allow the G-men to get up by more than a touchdown early. Stem the tide. The ‘Skins should dominate the second and third quarters after the emotional edge disappears and the players from both sides settle down. A couple of typical and untimely Redskins turnovers will keep the Giants in it. Manning will play well in the stretch, but won’t have enough in him to lead another fourth quarter comeback. Brunell, Moss and Cooley will have monster days, Michael “does anyone know a good dentist” Strahan will complain that he was held on every play as he typically does following each loss, and the Skins will finally be taken seriously. I’m guessing Redskins by 7.