NCAA Basketball Preview

College basketball has been underway for more than two weeks now. It is about time to tell you kids who is going to a major playa on the national scene. Could Texas have two championship teams in the making? Can Boston College make their first year in the ACC a good one? What is wrong with the SEC this season? Can Gonzaga really compete with the big boys? And what about the caffeinated nerds in Durham? You ask the questions, I’ll give you the answers.

Unfortunately, there is no possible way I can preview all 300 plus teams in division one hoops. Sorry to those of you looking for that riveting UNC-Ashville or Prairie View summary. But I will give you the true contenders for the national championship. And, according to federal law, if talk about the contenders then I must talk about the pretenders as well. I’ll throw in some teams that straddle the line between champion and chump. You can also find some teams you may not know about in the always anticipated “darkhorse” section. Enjoy.

Contenders:

Connecticut: Despite senior guard Marcus Williams putting the con in UConn over the summer, the Huskies are one of the nation’s best teams. The Huskies may be the most balanced team in the country. I love the experience at UConn. Four seniors and a junior see significant minutes. Rudy Gay, a sophomore who played a lot last season, plays even more this year. Jim Calhoun also uses a deep bench of nine to ten guys. Denham Brown is one of the most versatile players in the nation. Rashad Anderson is a dangerous scorer. Josh Boone, who may be the ugliest player not named Shelden Williams, is a monster inside. Just in case Boone gets in foul trouble, Calhoun has the seven-footer Hilton Armstrong and Georgia Tech transfer Ed Nelson to back him up. Throw in super freshman Craig Austrie, who is already seeing 30 minutes of playing time, and the Huskies should be expected to make another deep run in March.
Key Games: LSU (1/7), @ Syracuse (1/16), @ Indiana (2/04), @ Villanova (2/13)

Boston College: I’m going to say this now for the record. This is the best team in the ACC. Period. The combination of Jared Dudley and Craig Smith in the frontcourt is going to be impossible for any team to stop. Both of these players are 6-7 and love to attack the hoop. Just give them the ball and let them create. The senior Smith is a pre-season All-American and the key to the Eagles success. The junior Dudley may actually be better than Smith. He averaged 16.5 p/g and 7.5 reb/g last season. His numbers are even better so far in 2005. Freshman guard Tyrese Rice may be the biggest surprise in the conference. He shoots 43% from beyond the arch. If he keeps that up, it is going to be much harder to guard Smith and Dudley. The Eagles also have a consistent presence at point guard, senior Louis Hinnant. This gives them an advantage over every other team in the ACC. The only problem for BC may be lack of height. They only have one player taller than Dudley/Smith, the 6-10 John Oates. So it will be interesting to see what Al Skinner does to match-up against Shelden and Eric Williams.
Key Games: @ Michigan State (12/6), @ Maryland (12/11), Duke (2/1), Wake Forest (2/28)

Oklahoma: First off, I really like Kelvin Sampson. He has always been one of my favorite coaches. His Sooners boast a pretty good starting five this season. Any team that can put seniors Taj Gray, Kevin Bookout, Terrell Everett and junior Michael Neal on the court is going to be special come the postseason. And in typical Sampson fashion, the Sooners are a deep team again. The Big 12 is also down this season. Kansas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State lost a lot of talent, and Texas isn’t going to be as good as most think this year. That leaves the conference right for the pickin’. The Sooners should be the team to step up.
Key Games: @ Villanova (12/3), Alabama (12/31), @ Kansas (2/5), @ Texas (3/5)

Kentucky: Speaking of deep teams, no one is going to play more guys than Tubby Smith. Even without Randolph Morris, for whom it looks less likely everyday that he will be able to play this season, Kentucky is strong as always. Four seniors and three juniors and three sophomores will see playing time. Smith is not going to have to rely on any freshmen like he did last year. Despite all the upperclassman, the most talented player on the team is sophomore Rajon Rondo, who is already averaging 14 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists per game. 11 rebounds for a 6-1 guard. Wow. Like BC, Kentucky may be a bit height deficient, as little used junior Shagari Alleyne is the only player who is taller than 6-8. But Kentucky loves to run, and Smith’s three guard lineup loves to shoot threes. You add a deep bench to that, and it is going to be hard to stop them. And like Oklahoma, Kentucky can take advantage of a weak power conference to get better seeding come tournament time.
Key Games: Indiana (12/10), Louisville (12/17), @ Florida (2/4), @ Vanderbilt (2/11)

Duke: Couldn’t leave the Dookies out of this category. But instead of telling you all the reasons they could win, let me tell the reasons they aren’t going to come close. Too many freshmen is the main reason. Despite the four seniors in the lineup, Ratface is going to rely too much on freshmen to spell his upperclass. All I keep hearing about is how good these freshmen are. Doesn’t matter. All these other teams in the contender section have talented freshmen too. But they don’t need them to win games. Duke will need the freshmen to step up. And because of the abundance of rookies, Dook’s bench is still weak. If Red-dick has an off night or Williams gets in foul trouble, how is this team going to win? The rotation may be bigger for K this season, but it will be very inexperienced. All those people who say that depth is overrated should look to the Dookies the past five seasons. In 2001, they were nine deep. They won the championship. The last four seasons, they have had talented starting fives, but were limited to a seven or eight man rotation (and really, can you count Nick Horvath as a legitimate basketball player?). Duke wilted in the tournament all those years. Plus, Duke hasn’t looked great at all this season against supposedly inferior competition (Struggling against Boston U and Davidson and beating Drexel by 10 is not going inspire much confidence). Unless the freshmen grow up quickly, the Dookies won’t make it past the Sweet 16.
Key Games: Texas (12/10), Maryland (1/11), @ BC (2/1), @ Maryland (2/11)

Pretenders:

Texas: Rick Barnes is the basketball equivalent to Mack Brown. How convenient is it that they both coach at the same school? They didn’t look very good against Iowa or West Virginia (more on them in a minute). It will be interesting to see how they perform against Duke, Memphis and Villanova before diving into the weakened Big 12. Texas does have P.J. Tucker, Daniel Gibson and Kenton Paulino patrolling the perimeter. All those guards are very good. Texas is a deep team, but lacks talent in the frontcourt. They are going to be reliant on overrated LaMarcus Aldridge and awkward Brad Buckman underneath the rim. Like most of the teams I have filed under the pretenders category, Texas should be good, but not great in March. Definitely not deserving of the #2 ranking in the nation.

West Virginia, Villanova, Louisville, Syracuse, The Big East: Other than Connecticut, every other team in the new, 41 team-Big East is severely flawed. West Virginia is going to come back down to Earth after a fluke season and the loss of D’or Fisher. Villanova is too dependent on the outside shot, which will hurt them in conference play and early in March. Louisville has Taquan Dean, but not much else. And Syracuse just lost to Bucknell (I know, I know, Bucknell is really good this season. But still, they’re Bucknell and Syracuse shouldn’t lose at the Carrier Dome to the Bison). So who else is left in the Big East? Cincinnati doesn’t have a coaching staff. Marquette isn’t going to get the second coming of Dwayne Wade anytime soon. Mike Brey is on the hot seat at Notre Dame. And Georgetown is still a season away. Some of these teams will step up and post good records against weak competition, but don’t look for anyone other than UConn to make a deep run in the tournament.

Florida: How many times will the Gators have to collapse in the last two months before all the experts stop overrating them in November?

Illinois: Even with Dee Brown back, the Illini lost too much talent to the NBA. Plus, Bruce Weber’s ugly orange suit can’t help things in Champaign.

Wisconsin: Like Florida, overrated every season with little to show for it in March. Barely pulled out a victory over Old Dominion last week. The most telling sign in that game is that the Badgers gave up 84 points. That vaunted defense can't afford to give up more than 65 a game because the offense, as usual, is terrible. That is not a positive sign for Bo Ryan’s team.

George Washington: Ranked 22nd? Didn’t we learn from last year’s first round exit that no team from the A-10 should be taken seriously.

N.C. State: Julius Hodge is finally gone. Unfortunately for Wolfpack fans, Herb Sendek is still in Raleigh. Look for the Pack to collapse in the ACC and fail to make the NCAA tournament.

Washington: I really like Lorenzo Romar (a guy that Maryland should start looking towards to possibly be the replacement for Gary…just throwing that out there). But the loss of a player like Nate Robinson is going to be too much to overcome. The Huskies should get a nice record in the Pac-10, but don’t look for them to do much in the postseason.

The “Tweeners”:

Gonzaga: They looked very impressive in Maui. They rolled over the Terps and then played two amazing games against Michigan State and UConn. Forget Shelden and Bacne, the best guard-center combo is Adam Morrison and J.P. Batista. Still, with all the promise of the last few seasons, the Zags need to get past the first weekend in the tournament. They shouldn’t lose more than three or four games the rest of the year, and should be given a nice cushy two seed. We won’t know about this team until they actually start playing in the NCAA’s.

Michigan State: Chalk that loss to Hawaii as a fluke (much like UNC losing to Santa Clara last season). The point guard situation has been well documented, and Paul Davis continues to be one of the most disappointing players in the country. But Tom Izzo knows how to coach. Never count him out, especially when he has some talent to play with.

Memphis: Sure, I’ll drink the cool-aid like everyone else. Memphis didn’t look great against the all-mighty Dookies, and still only lost by three in the last minute. Everyone who knows what happened to Darius Washington in the CUSA tournament last year is sure to root for a genuinely nice kid. The Tigers also have the benefit of playing in the depleted CUSA without Louisville, Cincy and Marquette to get in their way. John Calipari had made up for that lack of competition by scheduling Alabama, UCLA, Duke, Gonzaga and Texas before the conference play. But the easy conference schedule, the lack of a challenge in the final two months and the shortage of depth are all going to catch up with Memphis eventually.

Indiana: Mike Davis certainly has the talent in Bloomington. But can he "coach 'em up"? Indiana benefits from the improved play of 6-8 Auburn transfer Marcus Killingsworth. The senior is already averaging 20 and 10 through four games (admittingly against weaker compeition). Marshall Strickland, the 6-2 senior guard, will also be a big part of the offense. He must up his production from last year (7.5 pts/g, 3.4 a/g). The Hoosiers will go nine deep, but will have a lot of inexperience on both the floor and the bench. And like most young lineups, Indiana is capable of putting up some points, but can they play enough defense to win? IU will get plenty of chances to prove themselves, with games against Duke, UConn, Kentucky and the usual Big 10 slate.

Arizona: They could be in this category every year. They are going to be a top team in the Pac-10. They are going to be a top four seed in the NCAA’s. But then what? Can they make a 1997-esque run?

Darkhorses:

Vanderbilt: Kevin Stallings is the best coach in America that you have never heard of. The Commodores may be the best team in America that no one is paying attention to. They’ve got height, they’ve got depth, they’ve got guys who can shoot and an outstanding coach. What’s not to like? Mario Moore is the most underrated player in the country who is not named J.P. Batista. The 5-11 guard is the catalyst for the Vandy offense and is very dangerous from 3-point land. Julian Terrell, Derrick Byars, DeMarre Carroll and Shan Foster are all medium-sized small or power forwards who love to play aggressive. The fact that there are four of these guys make it hard for opponents to focus on any one of them. Stallings is going to have eight guys who play at least 15 minutes a game, and will probably use a solid 10-man rotation. Vandy also has the benefit of playing in the wide-open SEC. Other than Kentucky and maybe Alabama, there aren’t any other great teams in the Southeast. The Commodores should be able to rack up a decent record and grab a six or seven seed in the tournament. Their home game against Oregon tomorrow should tell us a lot about Vandy. Look out for them in March.

Oregon: Speaking of the Ducks, don’t sleep on them either. Ernie Kent is another one of those coaches that flies under the radar (another Gary replacement possibly). MacArthur Court is a tough place for opponents to play and the Ducks always post a solid home record. Oregon must find a way to win on the road. The Ducks aren’t especially deep, but neither is the rest of the Pac-10. The Quack Attack boasts one of the tallest lineups in the nation (four players 6-8 or taller that see significant playing time). They also have a 6-6 guard named Malik Hairston that is worth watching. Oregon won’t keep up with Arizona, but they should be able to compete with Washington, UCLA and Stanford.

Arkansas: This may not be an extremely talented team, but they have one of the best players in the country. Ronnie Brewer is a 6-7 junior that came out of nowhere last season and has picked up this year where he left off. He is already averaging 21.4 points per game (and most of that came in the Maui Invitational against very good competition). Stan Heath has the program back on track after a few years at the bottom of the SEC. Like Vanderbilt, they benefit from a weak conference and should be able to get in the tournament. You may not see “40 minutes of Hell” anymore, but the Razorbacks will return to the national spotlight.

Ohio State: You gotta love Thad Matta. He helped Xavier on the national stage for many years and now he enters his second year in Columbus. Last year the Buckeyes won 20 games and were the only team other than UNC to beat Illinois. The reason no one talked about them is because they were on postseason probation. Now they are eligible for the NCAA tournament and they are going to make some noise once they get there. And next season, they may have the greatest recruiting class of all-time coming in.

Houston: They may not have Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon, but the Cougars could be one of the teams that steps up and fills the void in the empty Conference USA. Tom Penders has taken a few extra years to get this program back in shape. Senior foward Ramon Dyer may be the emotional leader for UH, but juniors Jahmar Thorpe and Oliver Lafayette are the best players on the team and make a dangerous inside-outside combination. The one problem for Houston is the schedule. It is way too soft. They play LSU tonight, host Arizona on Saturday and then don't play another ranked team until March 4th against Memphis. The Cougars have already lost to Virginia Commonwealth by a point. They can't afford to have more than seven losses to make the tournament. I think they'll get there.

New Mexico: Danny Granger may not be in Albuquerque anymore, but there is still plenty of talent left from last year’s NCAA tournament squad. The Lobos are led by two seniors. Guard Mark Walters who is the best shooter in the Mountain West, and forward David Chiotti who has upped his game in the absence of Granger. Like Oregon, the Lobos benefit from a terrific home court advantage at The Pit, and rarely lose on campus. New Mexico has already whipped up on Ole Miss 95-42 and they beat a pretty good UTEP squad the other night. Their big test comes at Washington on December 10th, and then down the stretch in the always competitive MWC.

Northern Iowa: The Panthers shouldn’t have been in the NCAA tournament last year. But they will belong this season. They basically return their entire team from a year ago. For a mid-major, they have astonishing depth. NIU may be one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They aren’t going to excite you with their low-scoring style of play, but they will be noticed in March. Their game tonight at Iowa State will be interesting for both teams.

Where does Maryland fit in:

The Terps aren’t really a contender or a pretender. They haven’t gotten enough attention to be considered a tweener. But they are too well known to be a darkhorse. Their schedule should allow them to win about 21-22 games. That should be good enough for fourth in the conference. The Terps should be given a fifth or sixth seed in the tournament. But if you are looking for Maryland to get past the first weekend, you are probably going to be disappointed. The Elite 8 would be a huge stretch, the Sweet 16 would be slightly more reasonable, but a second round exit is most likely.

Tomorrow the Terps tangle with Minnesota in the ACC/Big 10 challenge. I’ll talk about that tomorrow.