NFL Week 11: Seeing Triplets

Another week, another good performance. I finished week 10 with a 9-4 record picking the games straight up, and a 9-4 record with/against the spread (thank you Texans). So on the season, I’m now:
Straight up: 93-48 (66%)
Spread: 79-60-2
Now with all the bye weeks taken care of, it’s back to picking 15 games a week (not counting the Redskins, obviously). Despite my continuing success, please do not use these picks for your own gambling purposes.

Carolina Panthers (7-2)(-3) vs. Chicago Bears (6-3)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
This is just one of many interesting games on the NFL schedule for week 11. The Panthers are still far and away the best team in the NFC. The Bears are still the best team in a horrible division. And I realize that all the teams from the NFC North won last week. So what?
I’m going to go with odds-makers on this one. Rarely do you see a 6-3 team an underdog at home. Especially at a home stadium that can generate nasty weather and can put the visiting team at a disadvantage. Las Vegas thinks that the Panthers are still “that good”. I’m inclined to agree with them.
Pick: Panthers

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)(-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)
1:00 p.m. Adelphia Coliseum
The Jags continue their march to a wild card spot. But Jacksonville must be careful. Tennessee still has a decent team despite the 2-7 record. I have a feeling that the Titans are going to be much better in the second half of the season then they were in the first. If Jacksonville truly is a playoff caliber team, they should have no problem. But the Jags have struggled in games against the Texans, Rams and Jets. They never seem to do anything easy.
Pick: Jaguars

New Orleans Saints (2-7) at New England Patriots (5-4)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
As good as I think the Titans are going to be in the second half, I think the Saints are going to be much worse. With the exception of Joe Horn and a few other role players, the Saints have quit on Jim Haslett. Just watch a Saints game and it’s easy to tell (although, I wouldn’t actually encourage anyone to watch a Saints game). This has nothing to do with the hurricanes and the nomadic season. It has everything to do with a bad coach finally losing his ability to lead a team.
Pick: Patriots

Arizona Cardinals (2-7) at St. Louis Rams (4-5)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I had the Cards as my upset pick of the week against Detroit. They let me down. I can’t go with them again. The Rams are finally getting healthy (just in time for their game against the Skins in a couple of weeks…fantastic). Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are both back and they looked pretty good last week against Seattle. Plus, it was a good week in St. Louis. Their coaching staff got through an entire week without having anymore heart related problems.
Pick: Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Ok. Chris Simms had one decent game. Unfortunately it was against the Redskins. Still, odds are he can’t have two solid performances in a row. Can he?
Pick: Falcons

Detroit Lions (4-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-3)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
Before these two teams host their annual Thanksgiving game, they face-off against each other. While the jury is still out on Chris Simms, the verdict has already been reached on Joey Harrington. Just because he went off on the Arizona Cardinals, it does not make him a good NFL quarterback. It will be a long fall back to Earth for Joey and the Lions this week.
Pick: Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at New York Giants (6-3)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Giants get ready to play their 16th home game of the season against the dangerous Philadelphia Eagles. What’s that? Donovan McNabb won’t play? Terrell Owens is suspended (when did that happen, I certainly didn’t hear about it from ESPN…you’d think that ESPN would cover something as important as Owens getting suspended)? The Eagles are in last place?
I have never seen a team fall apart as quickly as the Eagles. And I’d like to give props to myself for calling it. Go back to my Week 8 picks (posted October 27th). Here is an excerpt from it:
“I just have a feeling the Eagles are going to implode sooner or later, with the emphasis on sooner... This McNabb-Owens thing still hasn’t boiled over yet (and it will, trust me). It has been way too quiet in Philly so far, look for problems in this feud in the next few weeks.”
Not more than six days after I wrote this, did it come true. Man, I love being right.
So Owens and McNabb won’t play and it will be up to the deadly Mike McMahon-Reggie Brown combo. Scary. At least we won’t have to hear about Donovan’s weekly injuries. Was anyone else tired of hearing about that? There are tons of players each week, including other quarterbacks, that play seriously injured. McNabb is just one of them. But the media made excuses for McNabb because he’s a freaking poster boy. They even made excuses for him after his head-slapping throw against Dallas on Monday. Enough. That was McNabb’s fault, plain and simple. It wasn’t Owens’ fault. It wasn’t his other receiver’s fault. He didn’t make a bad throw because he was hurt. He committed an inexcusable mistake and cost the Eagles their season because he is an average quarterback. Even more so without his buddy T.O.
The Giants are another story. Despite the NFL giving them extra home games and a rather easy schedule (ie: Saints, Vikings, Cardinals, 49ers, etc…), they are only 6-3. They could and should be better. Now they actually have to play some decent teams in the last seven weeks. They are also scheduled for some road games, but look for the NFL to change that if possible.
Pick: Giants, Eagles cover

Miami Dolphins (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
As I said at the beginning, there are a lot of interesting games this weekend. This is not one of them.
Pick: Dolphins

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)(-4) at Baltimore Ravens (2-7)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Speaking of bad games. An exciting Tommy Maddox-Kyle Boller match-up that is sure to thrill only Steelers fans and what remains of the bandwagon Ravens nation. As bad as Maddox is, I can’t pick Kyle Boller.
Pick: Steelers

Indianapolis Colts (9-0)(-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)
4:05 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
This game better be on in the Washington area. We better not get the crappy Ravens game. No one wants to see that. Everyone wants to see the Colts and Bengals.
As much as I want to pick Carson Palmer, I just can’t do it. I’m going to have a hard time picking against the Colts until someone beats them. Despite both teams having talented triplets on the offensive side of the ball, the difference in this game are going to be the defenses. Cincinnati’s defense has a great turnover ratio, but has accrued that margin against sub par offenses. Those turnovers usually lead to easy Cincinnati points. Peyton Manning and the Colts are much better at protecting the ball, and they don’t need turnovers and a short field to score. The Colts defense should minimize Rudi Johnson, and force Palmer to trade touchdowns with Manning. Palmer isn't that good...yet. Look for big game from Palmer anyway, but a better game from the Manning-James-Harrison combination. I expect this game to be close and entertaining, but I got to go with Indy.
Pick: Colts

Seattle Seahawks (7-2)(-12) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
How many touchdowns will Shaun Alexander score in this one? I’ve got the over/under set on 3.5. I’m taking the over and Seattle.
Pick: Seahawks.

Buffalo Bills (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (5-4)(-10.5)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
J.P Losman = Kyle Boller. Unless Willis McGahee out runs LaDainian Tomlinson, it is going to be a long day for Buffalo.
Pick: Chargers

New York Jets (2-7) at Denver Broncos (7-2)(-13)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium
The Broncos really have a chance to go 8-2? How did this happen? They get a team in the Jets with real injury problems (unlike the Eagles, who have one injured player). The only weapon left standing for the Jets is a rapidly aging Curtis Martin. Still, Denver hasn’t played many bad games this year, and most teams play one or two stinkers. Look for Denver to struggle a bit.
Pick: Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)(-7) at Houston Texans (1-8)
8:30 p.m. Reliant Stadium
If there was ever a week for Trent Green to get going, this is it. The Chiefs desperately need a win this week. Their schedule gets much tougher after their game at Houston. Meanwhile, the Texans continue to play inspired, but futile football against much better teams. The last four games for Houston have all been close (for the Texans’ standards), and this one should be no different.
Pick: Chiefs

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (2-7)(-5)
9:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Let me understand this. The Packers have one decent week against an overrated Falcons team. Now they are favored by five. Why? Did Brett Farve suddenly get seven years younger and get back Sterling Sharpe, Dorsey Levens and Antonio Freeman in their primes? Enough with the Farve idolizing.
On a side note…do the Vikings have to list Mike Tice on their injury report this week?
Pick: Vikings

Come back Saturday for the eagerly anticipated Redskins-Raiders preview as The Norv makes his return trip back to D.C. Tomorrow I preview Maryland basketball.