NFL Week 10: My Picks Need A "Randy Ratio"

The Colts dominating the Patriots is one thing. Me dominating the NFL picks is another. If it wasn’t for the Browns beating the Titans, I would have been perfect. I went 12-1 last week. I even went 9-3-1 against the spread (the Bears beat the Saints by three, which is where the line was set on Thursday). So overall I am:
Straight up: 84-44 (65%)
Spread: 70-56-2
Even though I was red hot last week, please don’t use my genius alone as the basis to wager money on the following games.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-5)(-2.5)
1:00 Ralph Wilson Stadium
Priest Holmes is officially out for the year for Kansas City. Does this mean that the Chiefs are done? Not exactly. For most teams, losing a player like Holmes would be the beginning of the end. The Chiefs, knowing that Holmes is injury prone, have been grooming Larry Johnson as his back-up. Recently, when both were healthy, Johnson was seeing plenty of carries. This tells me that Dick Vermeil has almost as much confidence in Johnson as he does in Holmes. For if no other reason other than last week’s go-for-the-win playcalling, I’m showing Vermeil the same confidence.
Pick: Chiefs

New England Patriots (4-4)(-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-5)
1:00 Dolphins Stadium
Is this really the best the AFC East has to offer? What happened to this powerful division? The Dolphins play in their most meaningful game in the last three seasons. A win for Miami puts them in a first place tie with the beat up Pats. And the stars seem to be aligned for a Miami upset. The Patriots are not only dealing with numerous injuries, they are coming off an embarrassing loss that left Tom Brady questioning the character of the team. The Patriots also have the short week after playing on Monday night. The Fins get this one at home, and are starting to get a look at the old Ricky Williams. Even with all these factors, I can’t see Miami winning.
Pick: Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (2-6) at Chicago Bears (5-3)(-13)
1:00 Soldier Field
The only question about this game is whether the Bears will be able to score 14 points and cover the spread. I think they will.
Pick: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at New York Giants (6-2)(-10)
1:00 Giants Stadium
After a grueling road trip to San Francisco, the NFL returns the Giants to the Meadowlands for their 14th home game of the season. Minnesota comes in with some new confidence and seemed to play well last week with Brad Johnson as QB. The Giants had fits with the woeful 49ers for three quarters before finally putting them away. Something tells me New York is going to struggle in this one.
Pick: Giants, Vikings cover

Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Detroit Lions (2-6)(-4)
1:00 Ford Field
Jeff Garcia is questionable…meaning there is a 50-50 chance that Joey Harrington is going to play. I don’t like those odds.
Pick: Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens (2-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)(-6.5)
1:00 Alltell Stadium
Don’t worry Ravens fans, your savior at quarterback returns this week. Kyle Boller is expected to start, meaning that the Ravens are now on the fast track for the Super Bowl like they were back in week one.
Pick: Jaguars

Houston Texans (1-7) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0)(-18)
1:00 RCA Dome
I have never seen a team favored by 18 points. I don’t know what to do with this kind of spread. Can any NFL team really be 18 points better on paper than any other team? What happened to parity? The Colts are obviously going to win this game. But they’re coming off a short week and an emotional road victory over New England. This game could be a classic let down game for Indianapolis. Plus, the Texans hung with the Colts for a few quarters last month in Houston. Oh, what the heck…
Pick: Colts, Texans cover

New York Jets (2-6) at Carolina Panthers (6-2)(-9)
4:05 Bank of America Stadium
I understand why some analysts say that Steve Smith is currently the favorite for MVP. But if you have two running backs like LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander, shouldn’t they be rated ahead of Smith? As a receiver, Smith needs the line to block, the quarterback to throw him the ball and for the defense to be set up in a certain way in order to have a chance to make the catch. A receiver relies on too many other players to make plays. Unlike a running back, Smith can’t create on his own. So unless he puts up over 2,000 yards, let’s end the Steve Smith for MVP debate right here.
Pick: Panthers

Denver Broncos (6-2)(-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-5)
4:05 McAfee Coliseum
This smells like an upset. I think the Raiders are prime for a big second half. I think sooner or later, the real Jake Plummer is going to show himself. I think the Broncos are destined for another second half disappointment. I also think that Randy Moss is going to have a big game. Last week he only had one catch against the Chiefs. How is this possible? It's not like the Chiefs have a great defense. What happened to the Randy Ratio? I thought that was a good idea. Get Moss the ball 'X' number of times a game, and you'll win. That argument I just made about Smith or any other receiver not deserving a MVP award has one exception...Moss. He is that good. Why are the Raiders forcing passes to Joey Porter? I thought Norv was supposed to be an offensive genius. It is time for you to wake up Norv. Stop underutilizing the biggest offensive weapon in the game not named LaDainian. Anyway, as much as I want to pick the Raiders and against the Broncos, I can't do it...yet.
Pick: Broncos

St. Louis Rams (4-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)(-6.5)
4:15 Qwest Field
If the Seahawks win this game, they will have basically clinched the NFC West. They will be three games up on the Rams and will own the season sweep against St. Louis. So the Rams would have to make up four games to pass the Seahawks and win the division. Why will the Seahawks win? Because they can stop Stephen Jackson and the Rams can’t stop Alexander.
Pick: Seahawks

Green Bay Packers (1-7) at Atlanta Falcons (6-2)(-9)
4:15 Georgia Dome
How many more times are we going to hear all these wistful ESPN broadcasters remind us that the Packers are still alive in the pitiful NFC North? Chris Berman and others are actively rooting for Brett Farve on-air. It’s disgusting. What happened to being neutral? No amount of miracles is going to catapult them into the playoffs. I don’t care if they were playing in the Big Ten, 1-7 is simply a horrible record. Green Bay is done. And not just this year. By sticking with Brett Farve and picking Aaron Rodgers (a major bust most likely), the Packers have screwed themselves for at least two more seasons.
Pick: Falcons

Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)(-8)
8:30 Heinz Field
Boy, did Charlie Batch and the Steelers look sluggish against Green Bay last week. Luckily for Pittsburgh, they play Cleveland this week. So despite missing Ben Roethlisberger for the second straight week, and with both Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker injured and questionable, the Steelers defense should come through and help them cover.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY
Dallas Cowboys (5-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)(-3)
9:00 Lincoln Financial Field
The Cowboys will begin their murderer’s row schedule in Philadelphia on Monday. After the Eagles, they get a gimme game against the Lions, then six straight games against teams with winning records. Yikes! This is where we learn if the Boys are for real. This also where we learn if the Eagles can actually win without a certain wide receiver. The winner of this game comes away feeling really good about themselves. The city of the losing team starts panicking on Tuesday. As a Redskins fan, I can only root for the stadium to collapse and the game to end in a tie.
Pick: Cowboys

Tomorrow, I try to break down the Bucs-Redskins. Even if you don't care about the game, at least come back tomorrow for the Chris Simms bashing.