NFL Week 13: Would You Like Hines Ward Ketchup On Your Roethlisberger?

All right, enough about college basketball. Let’s get back to some pigskin. It’s Thursday, so it’s time for some picks. Last week’s turkey and stuffing induced picks actually led to an 11-4 mark. Against the spread, because I used the early week lines from Las Vegas, I ended up with two splits (Panthers and Packers). I was still 10-3-2 on the wagers. On the season, my records stand at:
Overall: 114-57 (67%)
Spread: 95-71-5
Unless you are hitting the leftovers hard this week, please don’t use these picks as the sole basis to make any wagers.

Buffalo Bills (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Man, what can I do with this game? Neither team has played well this season, as the dueling 4-7 records would indicate. But neither team is really that bad. Every time I pick against Miami, they beat some team that they shouldn’t. Every time I seem to pick Miami, they have a horrible game. Fortunately for Nick Saban, he doesn’t count the score or worry about the Dolphins’ record. I’m going to go with the team that actually cares.
Pick: Bills

Tennessee Titans (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (11-0)(-15)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
This game is very similar to the one the Colts played three weeks ago against the Texans. The question is not if they will win, but by how much. The real question is if they cover the spread. They failed against the enormous 18-point line against Houston. Could be a huge trap game with Jacksonville coming up next week, but the Colts should cover.
Pick: Colts

Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
A few weeks ago, I was sure, that despite the injury to Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers would win this game and take control of the AFC North. I’m not so sure anymore. Pittsburgh didn’t put up much of a second half fight against the Colts on Monday. The offense, even with the return of Big Ben, sputtered around the RCA Dome. All of a sudden, the Steelers seem vulnerable.
The Bengals on the other hand, have played some of their best football in the last few weeks. They looked great offensively against the same Colts team two weeks ago (despite losing) and they slapped the hapless Ravens around the field last week.
The first game between these two teams in October can be summarized in one stat: time of possession. The Steelers held onto the ball for 35:29. They had 10 more offensive plays then the Bengals did. Pittsburgh did this with a bruising run attack that put the ball on the ground 47 times. 47 times! The Redskins can’t run 47 times in three weeks worth of games.
By controlling the tempo of the game, and holding Rudy Johnson to 65 yards on only 12 carries, the Steelers dominated the game from start to finish. They made the Bengals a one-dimensional team on offense. And despite a decent completion rate, Carson Palmer showed his inexperience by forcing one too many passes. He was picked twice on the afternoon.
I don’t think there is any way that the Steelers running game will be as effective this time around. Cincinnati will not let them carry 47 times for 221 yards. Plus, the Steelers were much healthier back in October. Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis will not be able to handle the 31 carries they had in game one. If the Steelers can’t control the clock, they allow Cincy’s offense to get on the field more. The Bengals offense is nearly as good as the Colts who put up 26 on Pittsburgh last week. Look for a close game and a more balanced attack from Cincinnati.
Pick: Bengals

Houston Texans (1-10) at Baltimore Ravens (3-8)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
I really want to pick the Texans. Dominick Davis is finally starting to get some running room. David Carr is getting better protection. They face a Ravens team that has been dealing with a lot of injuries, but even more failed expectations. The fans in B-more better enjoy this one…it may be the last Ravens win for a long time.
Pick: Ravens, Texans cover

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)(-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-7)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
David Garrard gets his first start of the season for an injured Byron Leftwich. As I said earlier this week, Garrard is a better fit in the Jacksonville offense than Leftwich is. And Garrard is a pretty good quarterback. He has been with the Jags for a few years and knows the offense. He is going to more than just a placeholder for Leftwich until he comes back. I bet that there will be little change in the offensive play-calling with Garrard in the lineup. Most teams would love to have him as their number 2 QB. Some would even love to have him as their starter. Jacksonville’s defense should be good enough to keep the Browns and Reuben Droughns under wraps and the Jags offense should put up enough points. It will be close, but so are all of Jacksonville’s games.
Pick: Jaguars

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at New York Giants (7-4)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
I really don’t want to talk about this game. Let me say, that the G-men are frauds. Everyone knows that. Get them away from Giants Stadium, and they are going to lose. And at home, they haven’t beaten too many quality opponents. With the exception of the win over Denver, which took a last minute comeback, who have they beaten? Arizona. St. Louis. Philadelphia. New Orleans (whoops, that was supposed to be a road win, wasn’t it). Not a very impressive list.
As much as I despise Dallas, they are actually a pretty good team. They take control of the NFC East after this one.
Since I have no more to add about this contest, and I hate saying good things about Dallas, that means I get to talk about Michael Irvin. Are we really supposed to believe that the drug paraphernalia that he had in his car when he was busted last weekend wasn’t his? Why are we giving this guy the benefit of the doubt? Isn’t this the same Michael Irvin who was busted years ago for possessing large amounts of crack cocaine and having sex with prostitutes? On two different occasions I might add. He claims it was a “friends” marijuana pipe. But he won’t name his friend. That’s convenient. Unless his “friend” is Nate Newton (who had his own problem with drugs…like being busted hauling more than 500 pounds of the stuff in the trunk of his car), I’m going to have a hard time believing this one. But why, Michael, was your friend’s pipe in your car? Because:
“My friend has been dealing with substance abuse for quite a while. I found the pipe while greeting him with a hug on Thanksgiving Day and put it in my car because I thought it was a better option than in the trash or inside the house.”
Firstly, how is the car a better option than the trash can? Secondly, why is a supposed “ex”-junkie hanging out with people who are still doing drugs? One of the first steps to getting over an abuse of drugs is to get away from the culture and the people who use them. I’m beginning to think that this “friend” may have been a former Dallas Cowboy player. I’m just guessing that he played wide receiver with the team during the early 90’s and wore #88. Currently, I think this “friend” may just happen to work at ESPN as a highly overpaid analyst. I wonder if that description is anybody Michael Irvin knows.
Pick: Cowboys

Green Bay Packers (2-9) at Chicago Bears (8-3)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
The Bears have won seven in a row? When did this happen? I have to start paying more attention.
Pick: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (6-5)(-3) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
You know the Vikings are smiling going into this one. Not only are they on a four game winning streak, but also get to face a team that is more dysfunctional off the field then they are.
Pick: Vikings

Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at Carolina Panthers (8-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
I still think the Panthers are the best team in the NFC. That theory has been put to the test the last few weeks. A head-scratching loss against Chicago (c’mon, we know the Bears aren’t that good) and an ugly win against Buffalo hasn’t inspired much confidence in the Panthers recently. A win against a Falcons team trying to catch up to them in the division would help restore their Super Bowl contender image.
Pick: Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)(-3.5) at New Orleans Saints (3-8)
1:00 p.m. Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA
So the Saints actually won a game. Don’t look for them to make that mistake again.
Pick: Buccaneers

Arizona Cardinals (3-8)(-3) at San Francisco 49ers (2-9)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
I can’t believe the NFL is keeping this game on the schedule. I can’t believe that the United States allowed either of these teams back in the country after their October game in Mexico.
Pick: Cardinals

New York Jets (2-9) at New England Patriots (6-5)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
It is so sad that the Patriots are going to clinch their division before teams like the Bengals, Broncos and Panthers clinch theirs. Gotta love parody.
Pick: Patriots

Denver Broncos (9-2)(-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
4:15 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
This is the most intriguing game on the NFL schedule this week. We are going to learn a lot about both teams. Can the Broncos and Jake Plummer handle a hostile crowd in Kansas City (much like the one they may have to face in January in Indianapolis)? Can the Chiefs keep their hot streak going without Priest Holmes? Does Trent Green have anymore inspired performances left in him? Don’t let me down Trent.
Pick: Chiefs

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at San Diego Chargers (7-4)(-11)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
These teams have two things in common. One, they have former Redskin coaches at the helm. Two, both of those coaches have recent win against previous said team. How both of them managed to do so, I’ll never figure it out.
Pick: Chargers, Raiders cover

Monday
Seattle Seahawks (9-2)(-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
9:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
The Seahawks have the third best rushing attack in the league. They average 156.5 yards a game on the ground. The Eagles are 17th best (or 15th worst) in stopping the run, surrendering more than 113 yards a game. And that is before they face Shaun Alexander.
Pick: Seahawks

Redskins-Rams preview tomorrow.