Redskins at Cardinals: Beware The Desert!

Washington Redskins (6-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
4:05 p.m. Sun Devil Stadium
Yesterday, the Washington Redskins practiced in the snow, sleet and freezing rain. Now either Joe Gibbs was trying to mold his team into postal workers, or he forgot who was on the schedule. Tomorrow, the Redskins travel to the Arizona desert to take on the Cardinals. Game time temperature in Tempe: a frigid 70 degrees.

So what Gibbs was trying to prove Friday in practice, I don’t know. It would have made much more sense to me to give the team a day off. Heck, why didn’t they leave for the 48th state yesterday, giving them more than 36 hours before game time to get over jetlag. And while I’m sure that the Redskins are relieved to put the crappy weather behind them, and face an injury-riddled, 4-8 Cardinals team, they may just be walking into a dangerous Arizona snake pit.

Strange and weird things happen in the desert in the second half of seasons. Especially when the Redskins visit. You remember the Cardinals, don’t you? Before the NFL made like the ACC and started adding teams wherever they could find a few thousand fans, the Cardinals used to be in the NFC East with the Skins. Arizona was finally moved to the more geographically friendly West for the 2002 season, but not before delivering a decade long torture test to the Redskins in the Phoenix area.

The Cardinals, as bad as they have been since leaving St. Louis in 1988, always give teams fits when they host games late in the season. A variety of factors play into this. First, most visiting teams have been conditioning in cool weather since October. So a December game in the desert is usually a rude awakening. Second, the Cardinals are always out of any conceivable playoff race by the second half of the season (1998 being the lone exception). Teams that should go to Tempe and dominate tend to overlook the Cards. Now combine the heat and visitor overconfidence with the horrible fan support. Sun Devil Stadium usually is only 30% full. While the Cardinals are used to playing in front of the small crowds, their opponents are not. Most players haven’t played in front of those few fans since high school. It takes awhile to get used to and takes awhile for a player to get his head in the game. This is why the Cardinals so often play spoiler during the last few weeks of the year (ask the 2003 Vikings about that).

Despite being the NFC East doormat for a long time, the Cards always played Washington and Philadelphia close. The Eagles had problems when they hosted Arizona (That’s a whole other story). The Redskins had problems in Tempe. Joe Gibbs dominated the Cardinals during his first stint, going 20-4 against the vagabond franchise. After he left, the Skins suffered one humiliating defeat after another in the desert. And the schedule always seemed to work against the Redskins. Usually when the schedule comes out, the home and home games against division teams are flipped from the dates they were in the previous season. For example, last season, the Redskins faced the Cowboys at home in September, and played at Dallas late in the season. This year, the Skins faced the Cowboys at Texas Stadium in September, and get a home game with them in December. Next year, it stands to reason, the Skins will get an early home game and a late road game when facing the Boys. But, when it came to facing Arizona, it always seemed the Skins had to travel to Tempe late in the season.

In 1993, 94, 96, 97, 98, 2000 and 2001, the Skins played Arizona on the road in the second half of the season. The Redskins were 2-5 in those games against mostly inferior Cardinals teams. And most of the losses were close and bizarre…
December 11, 1994: Redskins kick five field goals, lead by 8 (remember, no two point conversion yet) and lose in the final minutes on two late Cardinal scores, 17-15
December 15, 1996: A trademark strange fourth quarter. The Cardinals enter the period down six points. They only manage 28 yards of total offense in the 4th. But somehow, Arizona scores 10 points to the Redskins three and wins 27-26. When the Skins were up 26-24, they had the ball with two minutes left at their own 25-yard line. A Terry Allen fumble sets up the Cards and Kevin Butler for the game-winning field goal as time expires. The Redskins finish the season 9-7, and miss the playoffs by one game.
November 8, 1998: Another strange fourth quarter again sees the Redskins blow a late lead. Up 17-14, the Redskins surrender a quick touchdown. On the ensuing drive, the Skins go three and out, but their punt snap sails out of the end zone. The Cardinals score a field goal off the resulting free kick to take a 26-17 lead with only three minutes left. A Trent Green pass to Leslie Shepherd got the Skins to two with 1:41 left. A recovered onside kick, followed by a quick drive, allows Cary Blanchard to kick what appears to be the game-winning field goal with only 35 seconds remaining. But the Skins allow a great kickoff return, and in only three plays, the Cardinals get the ball to the Washington 30 with 2 seconds left. Joe Nedney kicks a 47-yarder to win it, as time expires (sounds familiar).
November 5, 2000: The Redskins enter the game 6-3, and appear headed for the Super Bowl. Arizona checks in at 3-6. On their first drive of the game, the Redskins pound Stephen Davis all the way down to the Cardinals one-yard line. Davis then fumbles as he dives across the goal line, and Aeneas Williams picks the ball up and returns it 103 yards for the score. Later, after a Davis touchdown gets the Skins within one point, the extra point unit botches the attempt. The Redskins would eventually take a 12-10 lead, only to relinquish it minutes later as the Cards went up 16-12. Midway through the fourth quarter, the Skins have fourth and one at the Arizona eight. Norv Turner elects to kick a field goal to cut the lead to one. The Skins wouldn’t get close again. Kris Heppner misses a 51-yard field goal as the clock runs out (his third miss of the game), and Washington ends up losing 16-15. The Skins’ season spirals out of control after the loss. They finish 8-8 and Turner loses his job a few weeks later.

Hopefully with Joe back, and most of the older players gone, that crazy desert voodoo is no longer going to plague the Redskins. But the similarities from those past games and this one are scary. The Cardinals were never in the postseason hunt and are playing for pride. The Redskins are the superior team that is still fighting for a playoff birth. But like the previous Redskin teams, they have a penchant for losing late leads. And they are ripe for an upset, since you got to believe most of the players are looking ahead to the Dallas, New York and Philly stretch that follows this game.

The Redskins come in with a bunch of injuries, but nothing that compares to the Cardinals mash unit. Lavar Arrington will likely sit this one out. Santana Moss may play, but will be nowhere near 100 percent. But just the threat of Moss being out there should scare the horrendous Cardinal secondary and will open up the running game. For the second straight week, the Skins face a defense that can’t stop the run.

Defensively, Washington faces one of the league’s truly bizarre clubs (again, the Cardinals and bizarre…this is starting to really worry me). The Cardinals are dead last in rushing yards per game (69 y/p). However, Arizona is the number one passing offense in the NFL. WHAT? How is that possible? When was the last time this happened this late in the season (I would look it up, but I don’t have that kind of time)? I’d like to be able to give you some kind of made up answer as to why a team with no running attack could be the best passing team in the NFL. But I can’t. It’s not like they are down a whole bunch of points and have to throw the ball. Most of their games have been close. And with a injured left side of the offensive line (Kurt Warner’s blindside), you figure that they would want to limit throwing and try to run behind the right side of the line.

What’s more, Arizona has obtained most of those passing yards the last four weeks. Warner is really starting to get hot. Against Detroit in week 10, he threw for 359 yards and a touchdown. 285 yards and three touchdowns against St. Louis. 315 yards and 2 touchdowns against Jacksonville. Last week, Warner had 354 more yards and a touchdown pass. That is 1,313 yards and seven touchdowns the past four games.

These Cardinals have more talent at the skill positions then the Cardinals of past seasons. Even when they were upsetting the Redskins, Arizona did it with mostly spare parts at running back and receiver. The 2005 Cardinals have one of the best receiver tandems in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald is already well over 1,000 yards, and Anquan Boldin will get there with his next catch (68 catches so far for 992 yards). Even Bryant Johnson can be hard to stop if a defense concerns itself with Fitzgerald and Boldin too much. Sean Taylor will be counted on this week to stay at home and not over commit. Carlos Rogers will have his hands full with whichever receiver he is lined up against. Don’t be surprised if Greg Williams employs a nickel defensive alignment on second, or even first downs. He clearly won’t, and shouldn’t be worried about the Cards running game. The Cardinal receivers and Redskins secondary should be a fun match-up watch.

Also something worth watching will be the Redskins running game. As I said before, the Cardinals can’t stop the run. Their defense is very similar to the Rams defense from last week. It is important that the Redskins not only run, but run to the outside. Use counter and sweep plays to get Portis around the tackles. The Cardinals defense is undersized and slower then most in the league. And don’t forget to use Cooley against those small linebackers.

If the Redskins can score 24 points against the Rams, then they should be able to score at least 30 against Arizona. However, the Cardinals offense is much more dangerous than the Rams (who would have said that two years ago). Look for this to be shootout. And like most shootouts, look for a fair share of strange plays. Because when the Redskins and Cardinals get together, weird things happen in the desert.

Now to my NFL picks. Let me apologize for not getting these picks up earlier in the week. Usually, I’m able to write them up at work, but I was actually busy this week at the job. So I’ll make these quick. The picks from a week ago were another set of amazing predictions. I was 13-2 straight up, and 14-1 (that’s right baby) against the spread. On the season, I’m:
Overall: 127-59 (68%)
Spread: 109-72-5
Even though I usually warn you about using these picks as a basis for any wagering, you might as well try to make some money off my incredible knack for prophecy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4) at Carolina Panthers (9-3)(-5.5)
To be honest, I’m completely surprised the Bucs have lasted this long without collapsing. A seven point win over the Saints last week doesn’t bode well for Tampa today.
Pick: Panthers

New England Patriots (7-5)(-3.5) at Buffalo Bills (4-8)
In what may have been one of the all-time choke jobs, the Bills blew a 21-0 lead last week to a team being quarterbacked by Sage Rosenfels.
Pick: Patriots

St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-5)(-7)
I think we all saw the real Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. He’ll show brief glimpses of promise, followed by a sustained period of playing poorly.
Pick: Vikings

Chicago Bears (9-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)(-6)
Enough already about the Bears being contenders. This team is a first round loss waiting to happen.
Pick: Steelers

Oakland Raiders (4-8)(-3) at New York Jets (2-10)
Things are going to get worse for the Jets. They won’t be able to draft Matt Leinart with the third pick in the draft.
Pick: Raiders

Indianapolis Colts (12-0)(-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-3)
The Colts keep the streak alive, but it will not be easy and it will be close.
Pick: Colts, Jags cover

Houston Texans (1-11) at Tennessee Titans (3-9)(-7)
Wouldn’t it just be easier if the Texans forfeited their remaining games? It would be much easier on me.
Pick: Titans

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-3)(-12)
Charlie Frye will throw at least three interceptions. In the first half.
Pick: Bengals

New York Giants (8-4)(-9.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
The Giants take a break from their 20 home games this year to make the grueling two-hour trip to Philadelphia. Just a reminder, Eli Manning has exactly one road win in his career…against San Francisco. What the hell, call it my upset special.
Pick: Eagles

San Francisco 49ers (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (10-2)(-16.5)
C’mon Shaun Alexander, Mark needs a big fantasy week from you.
Pick: Seahawks

Miami Dolphins (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (8-4)(-13)
I heard Phil Simms say last week that LaDainian Tomlinson was the fourth best back in the league. Is he crazy? Does he watch football? Has he seen a Chargers game the past three seasons?
Pick: Chargers, Dolphins cover

Baltimore Ravens (4-8) at Denver Broncos (9-3)(-14.5)
If the Ravens showed as much fight during the games as their coach does in the postgame interview, they only would embarrass themselves a little, instead of beating the Texans at home by a point. Wait…they still have a double murderer on the team? Never mind, that’s embarrassing enough.
Pick: Broncos (the spread could be 24 and I would still pick Denver)

Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5)(-3.5)
The thud you heard the past two weeks? That was the Cowboys and the mainstream media coming back down to Earth.
Pick: Chiefs

Detroit Lions (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (2-10)(-6)
Green Bay is going to turn the ball over at least five times in this one. They will still win. Yep, the Lions are that bad.
Pick: Packers

New Orleans Saints (3-9) at Atlanta Falcons (7-5)(-10)
Believe it or not, this is probably the most entertaining game left on the Monday Night Football schedule.
Pick: Falcons