The Predictor Top 25: 1/30/06

Lots of moving and shaking this week from the bottom half of the Top 25. The teams that move up didn't necessarily do anything special to earn their ascent up the rankings. They just managed not to screw up while all the teams in front of them did.

Speaking of rising up, did anyone check out my Virginia-Duke pick in the last post. I not only got the game correct, I got the exact score correct. I had Duke winning 82-63, and thanks to some meaningless free throws at the end of the game, I was right on the money. Do you have any idea how hard it is to accurately predict the score of a basketball game? But I'm so freakin' smart, I almost got the exact score right twice last week. I also had Miami beating FSU 86-80. Miami won 84-78. A lay-up by both teams would have given me an amazing two-fer. You can worship me whenever you deem necessary. Just don't pay attention to the Maryland prediction...please. So without further ado, the second rankings.

1. Connecticut (18-1), Last Week-1: No reason to move them from the catbird seat. Two easy wins over St. John's and Providence. Games against Pittsburgh and Indiana should serve as more of a challenge.
2. Duke (19-1), LW-2: Like UConn, no reason to move down. Also no reason to move them up. Tough game at Boston College this week.
3. Illinois (19-2), LW-3: A couple of easy wins last week will be followed by two easy wins this week.
4. Memphis (19-2), LW-5: Big win over UAB vaults them over Texas (a team that they've lost to) for now. Soft Conference USA schedule will knock them down shortly.
5. Texas (17-3), LW-4: A loss at a very good and ranked Oklahoma team is no reason to move the Horns down more than one spot.
6. Villanova (15-2), LW-6: Notre Dame handed them a gift win. Otherwise, 'Nova would have moved out of the Top 10. They stay put for now, but they aren't good enough to move ahead of Texas.
7. Gonzaga (17-3), LW-9: The Zags managed to avoid close calls in the WCC this week. Couple that with losses by teams above them, and the Bulldogs move up two spots.
8. Pittsburgh (17-1), LW-16: I don't think the Panthers are good at all. But too many teams had bad losses this week. And Pitt still has only one loss.
9. George Washington (16-1), LW-15: GW is helped by the "Pitt Effect". They're not that impressive, but they keep winning while others lose.
10. Florida (18-2), LW-8: They're lucky that the rest of the Top 25 was horrible this week. Normally a loss to South Carolina would drop them much further.
11. West Virginia (15-4), LW-12: They lose to Marshall...and move up a spot? That just shows how weak the landscape of NCAA basketball is this season.
12. UCLA (17-4), LW-17: One of the few teams that managaed to -*gasp*- win two games last week.
13. Oklahoma (13-4), LW-24: I love this squad. Their win over Texas is just the excuse I need to elevate the Sooners 11 spots.
14. Ohio State (14-3), LW-14: The Buckeyes only had one game in the last seven days, and it was in Iowa City. Not fair to drop them after a close but hard fought loss.
15. Boston College (16-4), LW-21: Starting to get on a roll. Let's see if they can pull an upset over the Dookies this week.
16. Washington (16-4), LW-7: Repeat after me...If you are up three points with only two seconds left in the game, DO NOT FOUL THE OTHER TEAM WHILE ATTEMPTING AN OFF-BALANCE LAST SECOND SHOT FROM 30 FEET AWAY!
17. Georgetown (14-4), LW-18: Notre Dame handed the Hoyas a win last week as well. Pounding of Cincinnati was impressive though.
18. Michigan (15-3), LW-25: In a week of bad losses, UM managed to pull off two wins over ranked teams. Time to move them up the rankings (By the way, I had the only poll that ranked Michigan last week. Seems like everyone else is jumping on the bandwagon a little late.).
19. Tennessee (14-3), LW-22: Like Pitt and GW, I'm not sold on the Vols. Prove it to me with a win this week over Vandy.
20. Michigan State (16-5), LW-10: Loss at Michigan not that bad. But just imagine what would have happened if they lost at home to Penn State...which they almost did.
21. Northern Iowa (19-3), LW-20: Like with Michigan, I was the only one to rank the Panthers last week. Too many "Johnny-come-latelies" voting on these basketball polls.
22. Colorado (15-3), LW-23: They may not be beating the best the Big 12 has to offer, but they keep winning. They join Michigan and NIU as The Predictor's surprise three.
23. NC State (16-4), LW-13: Blowout loss, at home no less, to terrible Seton Hall is unacceptable. They fall 10 spots as a result.
24. Iowa (15-5), LW-NR: Solid home wins over Indiana and Ohio State is enough to jump the Hawkeyes into the Top 25.
25. LSU (14-5), LW-NR: Only unbeaten team left in the SEC. They keep losing players to injuries, so it's going to be tough to stay in the rankings.

Next Five In: Maryland, Indiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, UAB

Maryland Basketball: Mike Jones And The Temple Of Goons

#18/19 Maryland Terrapins (14-4, 4-2 ACC) at
Temple Owls (10-7, 4-3 A-10)
Liacouras Center – Philadelphia, PA

Big, big win for Maryland on Wednesday. There is no other way to put it. Even Gary Williams admitted during his weekly talk show that he had no idea how the team would respond and what would have happened if the team lost. Some may have looked at the records and the stats going in and come to a conclusion that Maryland should have won easily. But nothing comes easy on the road, especially in the wild and crazy ACC this season.

The Terps played one of the most complete games they have all season in their win over Georgia Tech. Even when Paul Hewitt and company decided to turn the game into a rugby match, Maryland was able to persevere by hitting 41 of 45 free throws. And Nik Caner-Medley finally decided to show up in a real game. 33 points and 9 boards is more like it. I guess I’ll have to give him a pass the next couple of weeks. Will Bowers, surprising everyone, actually looks like a basketball player. His defense against Eric Williams of Wake and Jeremis Smith of Tech was incredible. He is starting to learn how to throw his 7-foot frame around without committing fouls. Plus, his five to seven foot jump shot is starting to fall with some regularity. Mike Jones played well in limited action due to fouls. He posted 12 points, 5 boards and 3 assists in 26 minutes over the Jackets. I’m sure that Gary will take that kind of line from Jones the rest of the season.

I still have two concerns from the past few weeks. The first is Ekene Ibekwe. Earlier this season, Ibekwe looked liked a guy who was going to put up 16 and 10 a night. And that was against some real competition. He played well against Gonzaga, Arkansas and Minnesota. But recently, Ibekwe has had a string of average games. Not poor games mind you. Just strictly average. The other concern is Sterling Ledbetter. He continues to regress. With Einstein McCray now done, Ledbetter will see an increase in playing time. Before McCray’s absence, Ledbetter was averaging just over 10 minutes a game. This was fine. He’d see five minutes or so in the first half, and another five in the second half. He didn’t have much of an opportunity to screw things up. Now, Ledbetter’s minutes are going to double. He played 18 minutes against Tech, and was dreadful. His 1-point, 5 assist, 4 turnover and 3 fouls line is going to hurt Maryland if it continues. He needs to come the bench and do a better job of protecting the ball. We don’t need to see increased offensive production. Sterling simply must protect the basketball. He also has to do a much better job of quarterbacking the Maryland offense. Maryland won by 12 despite committing 25 turnovers. During Sterling’s 18 minutes, the Terps committed 15 of those turnovers. They committed only 10 during the 22 minutes he was on the bench. Sterling has been here for a year and a half now; it is time he starts running the offense efficiently.

Anyway, congratulations to Coach Williams. If you didn’t know, he tied the Lefty Driesell for most wins while coaching at Maryland. He’ll go for the record breaker on Saturday.

The Terps continue their mini-road trip with a swing to Philadelphia. They play new ACC rival Temple in one of the country’s most disgusting cities. Wait, who let Temple join the ACC? This expansion business is getting a little out of control. Oh, Temple’s still in the Atlantic 10? Are you sure? They didn’t even move to the 55-team Big East? So why are the Terps playing these guys? Did we not get enough gangsta-ball in Atlanta?

Ok, so Maryland will take on the Owls and their first year head coach…WHAT?!? John Chaney is still there? Are you serious? After he sent one of his players into a game to deliberately injure an opponent…and succeeded? He wasn’t fired? Well, at least that player must have been kicked off the team. No? Nehemiah Ingram is still there too? And he’s seeing six minutes of action a game? What, are four of those minutes spent in the penalty box for unsportsmanlike conduct? Is this bizarro land in Philly? You’re telling me, a player can be suspended for the last three months of the season because he had one bad semester academically, and these goons Chaney and Ingram were given only a slap on the wrist at the end of last season for acting like the Broad Street Mafia? Ladies and Gentlemen, your NCAA regulations at work!

I’m not going to sit here and debate John Chaney’s coaching ability. He’s a terrific coach, that much is obvious. His contributions to the Philadelphia area (and really, Philly needs as much help as it can get) and its African-American community are almost unmatched. But asking one of his players to hurt another one because he is upset with the illegal screens being set is so far over the line. I don’t care if he had won multiple national championships, I would have fired him immediately. I know it would have caused a stir, but if this isn't a firable offense, what is? Couldn't Temple fire him while Donovan McInjury and the Eagles' season tanked? Fewer people would have payed attention then. And I would have kicked Ingram off the team as well. True, Ingram should never have been put in a position to intentionally hurt another player. But he's 21. He should be able to distinguish right from wrong. He listened to his coach without a second thought. They are both equally to blame. They should both have received their walking papers from Temple.

Hopefully Maryland won’t have to endure any of this foolishness on Saturday. This isn’t going to be a simple win for the Terps. Temple has played a tough schedule, so don’t let the record fool you. They’ve scored wins over Miami, South Carolina, Alabama and Penn. Just this week they beat a very good Xavier squad. Their losses aren’t bad either. They lost at UCLA, at Rutgers, at Auburn, at St. Joe’s, at home to Villanova, at home to GW and at UMass. The loss to UMass was their only bad loss. Temple found itself on the wrong side of a 60-34 beating. With 10 minutes to go in regulation, Temple had scored 18 points. That’s right. 18 points in 30 minutes. Which is bad news for the Terps. The Owls have already played their real bad game recently, so don’t expect for them to have another one like it on Saturday.

Marty Collins is the player to watch out for. Collins is a physical 6-6 guard who averages 15.5 points and 4 boards a game. Antywane Robinson is the other dangerous senior. He helps Collins with 12.4 points and 5 boards on average. Like Georgia Tech, Temple does not shoot real well from outside or at the line. Only Mark Tyndale is going to beat you with threes (shooting 42%). And only Robinson shoots better than 70 percent from the charity stripe. Temple’s team average is in the low 60’s. Like Tech, Temple is going to slow down the game and play physical (hopefully not too physical Mr. Cheney). Against a team like the Owls, Maryland cannot afford to commit 25 turnovers. Because of Temple’s slow down play, there are going to be fewer possessions. The Terps can’t give any away. Maryland should be well prepared for a game like this. Temple plays the game at the exact pace that N.C. State does. They are going to make you work for 35 seconds when you have the ball. They are going to make you work for 35 seconds when they have the ball. Temple is going to try and score early points inside and then let Collins take over in the second half.

Expect Caner-Medley to guard Collins in this game. Maryland should have the advantage inside against a tall, but mediocre rebounding Temple team. Because 6-8 Robinson will probably be stuck on Caner-Medley when the Terps have the ball, Maryland should be able to go inside to Gist and Ibekwe. If Temple plays that confusing zone of theirs, it’s going to be up to Jones and D.J. Strawberry to shoot over it. If you want to see a smooth, exciting, fast paced game, don’t watch this one. This game is going to be 10 kinds of ugly. Just ugly enough for Maryland to win.

Maryland 66
Temple 58

Elsewhere in the ACC...

Considering Virginia surprised everyone, a 3-2 record in ACC predictions during the week wasn't that bad. I'm now 15-10 overall. Here are the rest of the weekend's games.

Saturday
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest
The Hokies will be without three of their best players. Two are gone for personal reasons. Deron Washington was suspended because he kicked White Stiff the other night. With all the dirty shots delivered by Duke in that game, I don't blame the kid for letting his frustrations get the best of him. It wasn't a planned Chaney-like action. Naturally, he is punished while the Rapist got away with three or four nasty elbows to Hokies' faces. Anyway, too many Hokies are missing. How could Wake lose this game at home.
Pick: Wake Forest 77, Virginia Tech 64

Virginia at Duke
I don't believe UVA is 4-2 good. But Duke is playing its second game in 48 hours, and the Cavs are buying into Dave Leito's system. This one will be close until Duke goes on a run at the beginning of the second half.
Pick: Duke 82, Virginia 63

Sunday
N.C. State at Clemson
The Wolfpack lost to Seton Hall, huh? I guess it's time to invite the Pirates into the ACC.
Pick: N.C. State 69, Clemson 62

Miami at Florida State
I was burned by the Hurricanes on the road earlier this week. But I can't bring myself to pick the Noles. Leonard Hamilton hasn't been a decent coach since he left The U.
Pick: Miami 86, Florida State 80

Georgia Tech at Boston College
The Jackets are in all kinds of trouble. At the same time, it looks like BC is finally starting to live up to my hype.
Pick: Boston College 75, Georgia Tech 64

Maryland Basketball: Failing To Make The Grade

#18/19 Maryland Terrapins (13-4, 3-2 ACC) at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-7, 2-3 ACC)
Alexander Memorial Coliseum – Atlanta, GA

So Chris McCray can’t pass a couple of classes, huh? That’s a shame. See ya Chris. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Take your buddy Garrison with you if you could.

Before I let loose on McCray, I have to criticize the NCAA. Everyone knows that the NCAA is one of the worst bureaucracies in sports. This rule about student athletes having at least a 2.0 every semester is ridiculous. Most full-time regular students have trouble posting a 2.0 every few months. And they don’t have the responsibilities that student athletes do. Does the NCAA realize how many classes that the average student athlete misses? I’m surprised that half of them can keep their overall GPA above 2.0. I understand that the NCAA wants to promote academics, but let’s face it. These kids are in school on athletic scholarships. Their first responsibility is to represent their university in competition, not in the classroom. As long as they aren’t posting sub-2.0’s in multiple semesters, let it slide.

However, it isn’t like McCray was attending MIT. Seriously, how hard is it to get a 2.0 at Maryland? This is a large public institution. You show up to class, you hand in half-assed assignments and you get at least a 65 on the exams, you should have a 2.0 easy. I easily had a 3.0 in seven of the eight semesters I went to College Park. And those who know me know I did very little actual work or studying. And I had plenty of extra-curriculars to distract me from my schoolwork. Heck, the one semester I didn’t get a 3.0 I was: pledging my fraternity, broadcasting both men’s and women’s basketball, overseeing the men’s lacrosse broadcasting crew, filling out boatloads of forms for a transfer to the University of Miami…twice, skipping classes for weeks at a time and getting drunk nearly every night. And the work I did manage to do was way below average standards. My final Journalism 360 project took me three hours to finish, while it took the rest of the class weeks to do. I didn’t hand in half the assignments in my Computer Science class. And I handed an eight page, double-spaced final paper for my Journalism Ethics class despite the assignment calling for a 20 page, single spaced report. I still managed to get a 2.7.

So as you can see, even with the commitments of playing basketball, it shouldn’t be hard to get a 2.0. So it’s kinda embarrassing to have a kid this stupid and uncommitted on the basketball team. I hope that McCray doesn’t appeal, and if he does, I hope it doesn’t go through. Maybe if he had spent less time at Cornerstone resisting arrest and watching Travis assault women (allegedly), he would have had more time for studying. McCray will go down with Danny Miller as two of the more disappointing players to don a Maryland uniform in the past decade. He had so much potential, and never really maximized it. There would be a stretch of games where McCray would come out of his shell and dominate. Then he would disappear for a month. He would pass on open shots. He would refuse to move in the flex offense without the ball. His perimeter defense would suffer. He was too inconsistent and never became the team leader on the court that he should have been.

That doesn’t mean that Maryland won’t miss him. Even playing under his potential, McCray still managed 15 points and 3.6 assists a game. Without McCray’s point production in the offense, Maryland only averages 70 points a game. The Terps also lose McCray’s defensive abilities, which were much better than they were the last three years. And the burden now falls more on Nik Caner-Medley, D.J. Strawberry and Mike Jones to step up their production.

The big question mark now surrounding Maryland is this. Can Mike Jones be a starter in the ACC? Can Jones play 30 minutes a game without hindering the Terrapins defense? Will Jones be able to shoot in the second half despite being tired from playing more minutes than he’s used to? Only twice this season has Jones played more than 25 minutes. He played 33 minutes against Western Carolina and looked horrible. He had one of the worst shooting nights of his career. He managed only six points and committed three turnovers. His 26-minute performance against Wake Forest was the complete opposite. Jones scored 22, and was 8-11 from the field. He also dropped a couple of assists, and most importantly, played solid defense. But, Jones did most of his damage in the first half. 16 of the 22 points came in the first 20 minutes. Jones was clearly exhausted by the midway point of the second half, and looked to pass instead of shoot. Jones only made one outside jumper the entire second half. The other two shots were easy baskets in Maryland’s fast break. The only big second half Jones has ever had came in Maryland’s overtime win at home against Duke last season. And that was after sitting on the bench for nearly the entire first half, so he was well rested.


No more of the guy on the top left means more of the guy on the top right which will surely lead to more screaming from the guy on the bottom left. And for no reason, a picture of Clinton Portis as Dollah Bill.

Almost everyone at Maryland wants to see Mike Jones. He is, by far, the fan favorite. If there is one thing that the student body at UMD doesn’t agree with Gary Williams on, it is the lack of minutes for Mike Jones. Every time Maryland loses, there is a call for more Mike Jones. And to be honest, I’m one of those people. I’ve never understood why Gary seems hell-bent on leaving that jump shot on the bench. I know his defense hasn’t been good at times, but it has been improving this season. Well, Jones now has his chance. We’ll learn real quickly if he can play in the ACC. McCray being suspended could be a blessing in disguise. It could just as easily be the event that sinks Maryland’s once promising season. Remember, despite all the hype surrounding Jones’ outside shot, he is only a career 39% three-point shooter. That’s good, but not great.

Jones won’t have to do it alone. Strawberry must look to score more often. If Jones can’t carry the load, Strawberry will be the only capable guard Maryland has left. And Caner-Medley (and I know I say this every week) has to play well in big games. He is going to be the primary guy now. If he continues to disappear for games at a time, Maryland is going to lose. McCray won’t be there to bail him out.

So Maryland, now with a lot more questions than answers, travels to the dirty-dirty for a game with The Institute. And this isn’t the Georgia Tech team from a couple of years ago. Paul Hewitt has had some problems maintaining his success in Atlanta. Instead of playing guys like B.J Elder, Will Bynum, Marvin Lewis (no, not that Marvin Lewis, the other one), Luke Schenscher and Jarrett Jacob Jeff John Jack, Hewitt has been forced to insert guys like Jeremis Smith, Lewis Clinch and Zam Fredrick III. Zam? That can’t be his name can it? C’mon, this has got to be made up.

Tech’s record of 9-7 is one of the ACC’s worse. Tech has beaten Boston College and Vanderbilt, which are good wins. They’ve lost to Air Force, Georgia and Illinois-Chicago (just for reference, that’s not the Fighting Illini), which are bad losses. Just this weekend they lost at home to Clemson (Hey, something Maryland and Georgia Tech now have in common!).

The new look Jackets have been having problems finding a consistent rotation on the court. The starting five is basically set, but that doesn’t mean that the starting five are Hewitt’s best players. Nine different guys play 10 minutes or more. Usually this is where I praise the depth of the opponent. Not in this case. The reason Hewitt is playing so many guys is because none of those nine players are anything special.

The Bees are horrible shooters from behind the arch and at the charity stripe. Other than Anthony Morrow, Mario West and Fredrick, the rest of the team shoots under 67% from the free throw line. That includes Clinch and Paco Diaw (C’mon, that can’t be a real name either) shooting 60 percent and Jeremis Smith shooting at a 55 percent clip. From the outside, Morrow is the only threat on the entire team. He shoots 43% from three land, as he has made 47-109 threes. Everyone else on the team that has attempted more than eight three-point shots is shooting under 30 percent. Big Zam loves the three pointers. Just loves ‘em. But he can’t hit them. He is 13-46 from long distance (28%). Clinch also takes a healthy amount but his percentage looks like Chris McCray’s English grade (27.6%). This means with only one dangerous outside shooter, Maryland should be able to shut down the perimeter. And if I’m Gary, I put Strawberry or Nik on Morrow. DO NOT put Jones on him.

Inside, the Jackets are a bit more proficient. Ra’Sean Dickey (Seriously, is Hewitt just pulling these names from a hat) is a man amongst boys at times. The forward-center is averaging 10.6 points and seven boards a game. He also has nearly 2 blocks per contest. Along with Smith’s 13.6 points and nine rebounds, the Ramblin’ Wrecks frontcourt could give Ekene and company fits tomorrow.

Traditionally, Maryland does not play well in the Thriller Dome (but where do they play well on the road outside of the Raleigh-Durham area). Even the year the Terps won the national championship, which coincided with Tech being a really bad team, Maryland needed a last second steal by His Juan-ness to win in Atlanta. Even with all their struggles offensively, Tech is still a pretty good defensive team. Maryland has a large hole in their offense right now and this might not be the best team to go against at this time. Still, Maryland’s defense should still be good enough to clamp down, or at least limit, Morrow’s ability. If Maryland plays even with Smith and Dickey in the frontcourt, and doesn’t allow Morrow to go nuts, this should be a win. Maryland could sure use a road win to cure all their problems. Look for this game to be a Big 10 style defensive slugfest. It's going to be physical. Tech will try to make up for a lack of talent by pushing the Terps around. It will be close, and it won’t be pretty, but I see Maryland winning.

Maryland 68
Georgia Tech 63

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Alright, I was 4-1 last week. That’s more like it. My ACC record now bumps up to 12-8. I fell a Redskins-esque winning streak coming on. And in a rare move, I’m going with four, yes count them, four road teams.

Tuesday
Florida State at Wake Forest
The Deacs looked pretty good in their loss to the Wolfpack. Florida State continues their masquerade as an average ACC team. Time for them to go back to the cellar.
Pick: Wake Forest 84, Florida State 72

Miami at Virginia
Don’t be fooled by Virginia’s win over UNC. Miami is a much better team.
Pick: Miami 75, Virginia 64

Wednesday
Boston College at North Carolina
In the ACC’s version of pick ‘em, I’m forced to determine which team will underachieve more. UNC’s loss to Virginia and escape at FSU doesn’t sit well with me. I’m taking a risk and going with the road team.
Pick: Boston College 76, North Carolina 70

Thursday
Duke at Virginia Tech
It was like Duke had never seen the Princeton offense. It’s not like Herb Sendek has been running it for the past seven years. But do you really think Ratface is going to let the Dookies lose two in a row?
Pick: Duke 77, Virginia Tech 69

The Predictor Top 25: 1/23/06

As I’ve been saying, with the end of football season, it’s time to shift priorities to college basketball. So I guess that means I’ll have to come up with my own Top 25 from time to time. One of my pet peeves is ranking a team ahead of a second team despite the second team have a victory over the team ranked ahead of it. Especially if both teams have nearly identical records. You’ll see that I’ve put Texas over both Memphis and Villanova. While I still think the Longhorns will fade in March, and that both Memphis and Nova are better, Texas does have head-to-head wins over both of them. So reason dictates that they should be placed ahead of those two programs for now. And while this rule isn’t absolute, I try to follow it 90% of the time. Here is the inaugural poll for 2006.

1. Connecticut (16-1). Even when Duke was undefeated but escaping with close wins, UConn was my number one team. Now the records justify putting them in this position.
2. Duke (17-1). Tempted to put Illinois or Memphis ahead of the Dukies. With the exception of their blowout win over Texas, Duke has struggled against top competition. And let’s face it; the ACC is a weak conference this season.
3. Illinois (17-2). The Illini have lost only at Indiana and at Iowa. They’ve beaten Michigan State, UNC, Oregon, G’town, Missouri, Rutgers and Xavier. This is a really good team that everyone, including myself, overlooked.
4. Texas (16-2). They’ve seemed to recover from the beating they took at the Meadowlands. Have advantage over Memphis because of their win over the Tigers. Big game at Oklahoma coming up this weekend.
5. Memphis (16-2). Like Duke, Memphis is going to be penalized at times for playing in a weaker conference. Unlike Duke, Memphis won’t have the 24 hour media attention to remind the nation how good they really are.
6. Villanova (13-2). Live by the three, die by the three. ‘Nova is living large right now. But in March, one bad shooting night means their season will be over.
7. Washington (16-2). The home loss to Washington State a few weeks ago should raise some eyebrows. However, Huskies have wins over Gonzaga, UCLA and New Mexico
8. Florida (17-1). Anyone else have the feeling that their season is about to go South in a hurry? Me too. Just waiting for the record to fall apart so I can drop them out of the Top 10.
9. Gonzaga (15-3). Sure the wins over Maryland and Michigan State look nice. And the only losses have been to UConn, Memphis and Washington. But the Zags have struggled in three conference games, including a last second, one-point win over San Diego last week. And the West Coast Conference is worse than usual this season.
10. Michigan State (15-4). For the past two weeks, they’ve looked like the best team in America. Can’t ignore the four losses though.
11. Indiana (12-3). They’re probably better than MSU, but they lost by 14 in East Lansing already. I would vote Marco Killingsworth to the All-American team right now.
12. West Virginia (14-3). Right now, this is the only Big East team other than UConn that should be taken seriously. While Mike Gansey and Kevin Pittsnogle get all the attention, Joe Herber is the glue for WVU.
13. N.C. State (15-3). Cedric Simmons looked terrific against Duke. All the Pack have to do now is avoid collapsing in the second half of the ACC season.
14. Ohio State (14-2). I really, really like the Buckeyes this season. They have an Elite Eight look to them right now. Thad Matta is one of the best young coaches in the country.
15. George Washington (14-1). Does anyone know what to make of this team yet? I could have put them anywhere from 10 to 20.
16. Pittsburgh (15-1). No one actually takes this team seriously, do they? Pittsburgh is famous for their fast starts with easy schedules, only to fall apart in February and March.
17. UCLA (15-4). Fought back against WVU, but shouldn’t have been down so much on their own court against an opponent that had to travel 3,000 miles. Still, they are going to bulk up against a struggling Pac-10.
18. Georgetown (12-4). What’s not to like? They don’t have a bad loss yet. And they finally added the quality win they’ve been looking for. I smell a darkhorse.
19. Maryland (13-4). The Terps don’t have any bad losses, but they don’t have any great wins either. And what are they going to do without Chris McCray?
20. Northern Iowa (17-3). Only one bad loss to speak of (at Bradley), but it’s balanced by two solid wins over Iowa and LSU. This is the best Mid-major not named Gonzaga in the country.
21. Boston College (14-4). Their win at Miami saved the Eagles from being dropped out of the rankings. They must pick up their play in conference. Craig Smith continues to impress me.
22. Tennessee (12-3). I’m not that impressed with their home win against Florida. They’re supposed to win conference home games. But their overall record and exciting brand of transition basketball puts them in the Top 25.
23. Colorado (13-3). The only losses for the Buffaloes have come against Kansas, at Texas and at rival Colorado State. They’ve also won at Missouri and at Oklahoma State. Good enough for me to put them in.
24. Oklahoma (11-4). I have a feeling that this team is about to start reeling off some wins, beginning this week with an upset over Texas.
25. Michigan (13-3). They are in for this week. But they must play Michigan State and Wisconsin in the next five days. We’ll see how that works out.


Next Five In: Xavier, LSU, Vanderbilt, UAB and Louisville

Where is…?
Wisconsin: Sorry, you lose to North Dakota State at home, you automatically get removed from the Top 25. For at least two weeks. Go sit in the corner.
North Carolina: Dude, they lost to Virginia and beat FSU by one. Not looking good.
Syracuse: Didn’t even look competitive against Villanova the other night. Gerry McNamara can’t carry the team by himself.

Maryland Basketball: Doing The Hokie Pokey

Virginia Tech Hokies (10-7, 0-4 ACC) at
#22/22 Maryland Terrapins (12-4, 2-2 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

After watching Maryland get pummeled by Duke last week, I wasn’t as upset as I thought I’d be. In fact, I wasn’t upset at all. I couldn’t figure out why. I was talking to my friend Tuck about it, and he knew the reason immediately. I believe his exact words were “Dude, Redskins play on Saturday.”

Translation: I was too caught up with Redskins fever (symptoms may include coughing, headache, sneezing, erections that last more than four hours, zoning out every other thing that takes place during the week, randomly breaking into Hail To The Redskins, and screaming like Joe Bugel) to worry about what some petty college team was doing. As any real football fan knows, during football season, no other sport is as important. That includes football and basketball played by the old alma mater. Even if the alma mater is getting drilled by their archrival. Who cares? As long as the Redskins were playing, it wouldn’t have mattered to me if Maryland basketball was put back on probation. But it had been so long since Redskins football interfered with Maryland’s ACC schedule that I had forgotten about that rule.

Now that the Redskins are done for the season, I need to follow something to get me to next September. Which means Gary and company won’t get free passes anymore. The area’s media needs something to write about. So until baseball season, all eyes in the D.C. area turn to the Terps. I don’t think Gary realizes how lucky he is that the Duke beating took place during a Redskins playoff run. Normally, that story would have been the number one focus of the Washington-Baltimore media for weeks. Instead, in the Washington Post the next day, the game story ran below the fold on the front of the sports page. A game that normally requires the Post to publish a long game recap and two columns (probably by Wilbon and Mike Wise), took a major backseat to the Redskins-Seahawks hype. So if anyone questions what drives the D.C.-Baltimore press, let the last few weeks show no doubt. This area has always, and will always be, Redskins country.

So the spotlight shines back on the Maryland Terrapins until April. And while no one was paying attention (unless you count the Maryland fans who root for the Ravens…but nobody really counts them), the Terps lost in ugly fashion to both Miami and Duke. They then rebounded with a rather difficult win against Wake Forest. And I was at the Wake game. Thanks to a non-functioning student ID and a bunch of inept ticket-takers, The Predictor and friends managed to sneak into the Comcast Center free of charge. I’d like to thank the University and the athletic department for being so gracious to foot the bill for the evening. They were even nice enough to accommodate us with a few seats in the student section behind the Demon Deacons bench. We were well within earshot of Eric Williams and his repulsive mother and her stupid hat. Needless to say, some things were shouted in their general direction that upset many a Deacons fan. It was about time some real fans got into the Maryland student section, which as I mentioned before, has been getting awfully quiet ever since my class graduated. Do these kids know they can make noise? It was pathetic.

Anyway, for 35 minutes it looked like an actual ACC-caliber basketball team was wearing the home whites. Then Maryland decided to leave Justin Gray uncovered. Gray hit three after three and cut a 17 point Maryland lead to two. Maryland did just enough to hang on and win 90-86. Gray scored 38 points in a losing effort. And this is a Wake team with only two dangerous scores that lost a lot of talent in the draft and due to graduation this past season. Half the players from Wake I’d never heard of. They had these three freshmen, Dukes, Hale and Drum (sounds like a great name for a band) who all looked horrible. Kyle Visser is still doing his best Shavlik Randolph impression. And while Trent Strickland is a capable defender, he is usually too busy missing dunks and taking ill-advised threes to make a difference offensively.

By being at the game, I learned a lot more about Maryland then I was able to pick up while watching them on television. Finally it seems that Maryland has a definite starting five in the collection of role players that are currently under scholarship. The starting five should be D.J. Strawberry, Chris McCray, Mike Jones, James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe. I love the three-guard lineup, I love Gist at the 4, and Ekene, despite a tough night against Wake, is a more natural center than he is a power forward. Here is why the lineup works. Mike Jones, as the third guard, is going to be defended by the other team’s three position. The small forwards are usually taller, but slower, than Jones. If Maryland’s flex offense faces a man-to-man defense, the only thing needed to free Jones at the perimeter is a simple screen at the top of the key. Jones only needs a split second to get set and get the shot off. And if Jones has a hot start, like he did against the Deacs, then he is going to draw double teams. Which will free up D.J. and McCray from the outside as well. Is it any surprise that Maryland had one of their best shooting nights the same night that Jones logged a ton of minutes? I don’t think so. Also, with three guards, Maryland’s transition game is much quicker and even more deadly than normal. The fast break looked more fluid against Wake than it has all season. And Maryland still has power inside with Gist and Ibekwe. So after seeing his team’s offensive performance against Wake, Gary will naturally screw it up by putting Nik Caner-Medley in the starting lineup.

In my starting five, there are two names that are conspicuously absent. Caner-Medley is one of them. I continue to stand by my statement that Nik would be much better off the bench as the sixth man. He certainly hasn’t played up to his potential has a starter. Again, if you look at the stats carefully, you will see that Nik still hasn’t had an impressive performance this year, or even last year, against real competition. Anyone can put up 20 and 8 against Local University or Small Private College, but I’m still waiting to see Nik do that in a big time ACC game.

The other name missing is Travis Garrison. Most by now realize why he was in street clothes on Sunday instead of in his jersey. He allegedly assaulted and sexually attacked a woman back in late October (why we are just learning of this incident, I don’t know). This is very serious incident that must be looked at closely by the program. If there is even a hint of truth to it, Garrison should not be allowed to play at all. He shouldn’t even be allowed on the bench. I believe in the whole innocent until proven guilty line, but hitting a woman is totally unacceptable. I applaud Gary for suspending him for the Wake game. And I also feel very uneasy about letting him suit up for games while this case is still pending. But again, if he isn’t proven guilty, there isn’t much that Maryland can do about it. If I was still on campus, I would have known almost immediately if this case had any validity to it. I still have my connections on campus, and the word through the grapevine is that this case may be a bit overblown (which may be one of the reasons why it took so long to charge Travis with a crime). My people tell me that this may be a case of a woman and the excellent College Park police department (said with much sarcasm) going after a basketball player simply because he’s a basketball player. Keep in mind that this entire case is still only alleged. But if this turns out to be true, Garrison should be kicked off the team and out of the school immediately. No questions asked.

With all that said, I assume that Caner-Medley will be in the starting lineup, Jones will be back on the bench as Gary’s personal whipping boy and Garrison will be dressed to play this Saturday against Virginia Tech. The Hokies were last seen taking the Dookies down to the wire in Cameron in early December. VPI was 1.6 seconds away from beating Duke and solidifying their promising start. But when Sean Dockery’s last second absolute fluke heave went in, it sent the Hokies into a tailspin. Tech as yet to win an ACC game this season, and resides in the cellar of the conference by themselves. But that doesn't mean this isn't a capable Hokies team. They did beat Maryland last season with basically the same cast. Coleman Collins and Zabian Dowdell are the two players Maryland will have to watch out for this weekend. Obviously, if Tech can give Duke trouble, they can do the same to Maryland. I don’t see their interior defense being good enough to stop Ibekwe, Gist and Nik. I have a feeling this is going to be one of these 15 point, 10 board performances from Nik; after which, he will disappear for a few weeks. And Tech certainly won’t be able to rebound like they did when they upset Maryland last year in Blacksburg.

This is a must win game for Maryland. The Terps have a tough stretch coming up and can’t afford a home loss to the ACC’s worst team. With the ACC looking very weak this season, it is going to take a 9-7 conference record, at the very least, for Maryland to make the tournament. I can’t see the Terps winning more than three road games in conference. And if they were to go 3-5 on the road, the Terps would have to go 6-2 at home. And they still have home games against Duke, UNC and Georgia Tech. So they must protect home court, especially against weak opponents. This one will be closer than many think, but it should go Maryland’s way.

Maryland 76
Virginia Tech 65

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Again, I’d like to apologize. Due to my work and play schedule, I’ve neglected my ACC picks entirely this past week. Which may be a good thing. I’m only 8-7 predicting conference games so far. Here are my picks for this weekend’s games.

Saturday
Clemson at Georgia Tech
Biggest surprise to me so far this season has been Clemson’s victory over Wake Forest. It could mean two things. One, Clemson is better than everyone thought. Two, the Deacons are much worse than everyone thought. I’d tend to believe the latter. Still, Clemson is winning games they normally wouldn’t have in past years, and the Jackets are heading for the NIT. This one could go either way
Pick: Georgia Tech 64, Clemson 61

Wake Forest at N.C. State
Joining the Jackets in the NIT bracket this season will be Wake Forest. Look for the Pack to recover after their near win in Cameron (Duke sure is struggling at home this season…the Maryland game not withstanding).
Pick: N.C. State 73, Wake Forest 63

Boston College at Miami
This is the most important game on the ACC ledger this weekend. Boston College is still looking for a real ACC win (I can’t count their win over FSU at home). The Eagles continue to struggle defensively and continue to make me look bad by starting the conference schedule 1-3. The Canes are 3-1, and a win here would look awfully good next to wins over Maryland and at UNC. If they manage to win this one, they have two winnable games against UVA and FSU coming up. Miami could be looking at a 6-1 conference start. What happened to the ACC?
Pick: Boston College 80, Miami 75

Sunday
North Carolina at Florida State
This game looked a whole lot easier until UNC lost to the Cavs last night. Still, FSU and Virginia Tech should be fighting it out for the cellar all season long. I don’t think there’s anyway that FSU goes to 3-2 in conference play. It couldn’t happen…could it?
Pick: North Carolina 68, Florida State 57

NFL Playoffs: My Picks Are Leaking, Call A Plummer

Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Indianapolis Colts early exit, is the loss that New England suffered in Denver. I would like to thank Mike Shanahan and his staff for putting an end to this media darling’s season. It couldn’t have come at a better time. If the Pats had won, they would get another home game and almost an automatic ticket into the Super Bowl. So this post is dedicated to you, Mike.

Without New England, I can now enjoy the rest of the playoffs without being forced to root against a team. And what’s even better is I don’t have to hear about this Sports Guy and his incompetent babble on all things Boston. Here is a guy with no real discernable talent, who subjects the nation to his moaning and bitching about Boston sports teams for a living. Occasionally, he’ll write something clever. Normally, it’s just the usual Boston superiority/inferiority junk. But it’s getting worse now. People are actually starting to quote this bum. For example, I’m watching the Steelers-Colts game this weekend (more on that shortly). After a bad series by Peyton Manning, he walks of the field and removes his helmet. My friend says something to the effect of “there’s the Peyton Manning Face.” I look at him like he’s retarded. “Would you care to elaborate,” I ask him. “Don’t you read Sports Guy,” he shoots back. “No, no I don’t,” I say with a disgusted look on my face. I guess you could call it the Mark the Predictor face. So I have to go back onto ESPN.com to figure out what my friend is talking about. Just as I figured, it was something that wasn’t worth my time. Here’s the bottom line. This Sports Guy is one of the luckiest people on the planet. If the Boston teams were mediocre, would anybody care about what he is writing? If he tried to write these columns in the early 90’s, when the Patriots were horrible and the Red Sox were a .500 team, no one would read them and he’d be out on the street. By a stroke of luck, he happens to be from a city whose teams have done somewhat well recently. And he has ridden the success of the city’s teams to a payday (I would assume a rather large one at that). This is just another case that proves having luck is better than having talent.

Which brings me to another point. Are the Patriots of the past four years a dynasty? I don’t think so. The Patriots from 2001-04 are very comparable to the Dolphins from 1971-74. The Dolphins made the playoffs all four seasons, made the Super Bowl three times, won two championships and even had a perfect season. The Patriots, while winning one more Super Bowl than those Dolphins teams, never had a perfect season, missed the playoffs in 2002, and had an overall worse record than the Dolphins did during those four seasons. I don’t think anyone considers the 71-74 Dolphins a dynasty. So why consider New England one? A dynasty, by definition, is a powerful group that maintains its position for a considerable period of time. Is four years a considerable period of time? Not at all (especially considering that the Patriots were only good for three of those four seasons). The Celtics and UCLA Bruins were dynasties. The 1990 Chicago Bulls were a dynasty. In football, the 1960’s Packers, 1970’s Steelers and the 1980’s 49ers were dynasties. Those teams were dominant for nearly 10 years or longer. Heck, the Bears teams of the 30’s and 40’s and the Redskins between 1983-1992 had much longer periods of sustained success with just as many, if not more, championships. So if you aren’t ready to rank those Redskins and Dolphins teams ahead of the 01-04 Patriots, than don’t let me hear about this dynasty foolishness anymore.

So no Indianapolis, no New England and no New York Giants. What is the NFL going to do? This must be the worst nightmare for the league. They have four under-publicized teams that aren’t very sexy to watch. Only the Panthers play a brand of football that is remotely entertaining. And they have no fan base. With the exception of Denver, the other three teams play in relatively small markets. The league must be panicking at the moment as they try and figure out what to do with these four castoffs.

I recognize the accomplishments of these teams, and I’m looking forward to what is shaping up to be the most competitive conference championship weekend in a long time. The teams that are playing the best football are the two teams that will be on the road for the third straight week. Pittsburgh and Carolina, after what could be considered disappointing regular seasons, have fought tooth and nail to get to this point. But how many times can a team pull out road victories in the playoffs? Recent trends show that at least one, if not both of these road warriors, has an outstanding chance to win on Sunday. Since 1997, home teams are 7-9 in conference championship. Since the playoffs expanded to three rounds of conference play before the Super Bowl, the home teams have the worst record in the conference championship round. So both historic and recent play tells me that one of the road teams is going to win this weekend. My predictions may surprise you however. Last week I was 2-1 again, making me 169-82 on the season. I’m about to give two teams their Super Bowl passes and two teams their walking papers. Why don’t you read on.


Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)(-3)
3:00 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Don’t think I haven’t noticed that my two incorrect playoff predictions have been because of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I have been dead on the other six games, even saying to a couple of friends that Redskins would beat Tampa 17-10 before the kickoff. But the Steelers have single-handedly ruined my perfect postseason. But how was I to know that Carson Palmer would get hurt two snaps into the game and that evil Peyton Manning would show up last weekend?

So you can imagine my surprise when I wandered down to Cornerstone with some friends to watch the Steelers-Colts game last Sunday. There we were, in the middle of all the bandwagon Steeler fans that waited three months into the season to come out and support their team. The motley bunch even included one dude that rolled to the bar in a Steelers bathrobe, complete with a huge Steelers belt buckle and custom Steelers tennis shoes. Since I really didn’t care who won, I decided I’d root for the Colts, just to be obnoxious. The Steelers came out like gangbusters. It appeared that the Colts refused to cover Heath Miller. It also looked like the Colts defense had forgotten how to rush the quarterback.

But even down 21-3 at one point, everyone knew, even the Steelers fans, that Manning would start to get going. And right on cue, the lead was cut to 11. Then came the Troy Polamalu interception that wasn’t. While the four people I was with were sure that the interception would be upheld, I knew better. Although it did appear to be a clean pick, I knew that the referees, under word from the NFL I’m sure, would do everything they could to keep the Colts in the game. The league had already lost New England the night before. It couldn’t afford to lose the Colts on the same weekend. I said it was going to be overturned. Sure enough, after what seemed like an eternity to review the play, the ball was given back to the Colts. Manning then took drove the remaining 50 yards in four plays. Game on, 21-18. (By the way, I know that what Joey Porter said is similar to what I just wrote. But he needs to shutup. He really does. I want him laid out this week. Denver is famous for their illegal crackback blocks. I want this done to Porter. And I'm not one of those fans that roots for injuries. But I want Porter's mouth and his legs taken out. Finish him.)

So Pittsburgh predictably punted the ball right back to the Colts to give them a chance for the win. But then, evil Manning showed up. Despite working with very little time, Manning continued to be his typical OCD-self at the line of scrimmage. And all his screaming and scrambling at the line of scrimmage resulted in four horrible plays and a turnover on downs at his own two-yard line. Even Pittsburgh’s lethargic offense couldn’t screw this up, right?

But then Jerome Bettis nearly became the new Earnest Byner (who by the way, played a huge roll with the 1991-92 Redskins Super Bowl winning team) and coughed the ball up. Cornerback Stabby McStabberson picked the ball up and returned it to the Colts 40. So Bettis was made to wait on the sideline, helpless as he would watch his defense give up the game-winning touchdown.

Needless to say, the Steelers fans were beside themselves. I was really enjoying it. One of the worst coaches in the postseason was about to have his team choke again. But then a funny thing happened. Manning seemed to forget that all Indianapolis needed was a field goal. On second and two and third and two, Manning decided to go deep towards the endzone instead of picking up easy first downs. Suddenly, the Colts had to try a 46-yard field goal just to send the game to overtime. Everyone knows what happened next. The Irish kicker missed badly, Bettis started to cry, Bill Cowher was shocked that his team actually won a close playoff game, and the entire bar went into a frenzy. Well, almost the entire bar. My table shrugged and waited for the management to turn the televisions to the Panthers-Bears game.

Anyway, I’ve had my reasons to pick against the Steelers the last couple of weeks. And I have my reasons again. Pittsburgh has faced two of the worst playoff defensive backfields in the league in the first two rounds. But with Champ, John Lynch and company, Denver has become a turnover-forcing machine down the stretch in the regular season. Their linebacking core is pretty good too. If they can fool Tom Brady into making the mistakes he did last week, then they should be able to frustrate Big Ben even more. And I don’t see the Steelers running over Denver like they did against Indy. Which means, for the first time this postseason, Roethlisberger will be put into a position where he has to make big plays late in a ballgame. This game will be close in the fourth and I have a feeling that Ben, not the running game, will have to excel if Pittsburgh is going to win.

While Jake Plummer isn’t Joe Montana, the one thing he has always been good at is playing well in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh won’t be able to “blitz to a spot” like they did last week against Manning. Plummer is mobile, and has the talent to buy himself more time if necessary. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled in the past against mobile quarterbacks. Their defense tends to be too aggressive and when the quarterback is able to get outside the pocket, the secondary (which, with exception of Polamalu, is the Steelers weakness) can’t seem to hang with receivers. Look for veteran Rod Smith to exploit this matchup with Plummer. Plummer also has Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell at his disposal for screen passes. Expect a few big plays off dump passes to the running backs when Pittsburgh blitzes. Plus, Denver has a pretty good running game as well. Their offense has been clicking on all cylinders lately. The Broncos have scored 22 points or more in 11 of the last 12 weeks. They have been held to under 20 points only once this year (in a 12-10 win over Baltimore in week 14).

I think you are going to see a tired Pittsburgh team this weekend. Winning on the road takes a lot out of you. Also, Denver has the most unique home field advantage in the NFL because of the altitude (I didn't believe in the mile-high hype until I went to Denver. Not only is it hard to breath, it is easy to become dehydrated. I was broadcasting the Maryland NCAA tournament game and I became dehydrated. And all I was doing was sitting down. And I'm in good shape). Add in the fact that Denver has played one less game and has had one extra day to rest from their divisional round contest, I don’t see the Steelers winning on the road for a third straight time. Then again, I haven’t been right so far.
Pick: Broncos 23, Steelers 20



Carolina Panthers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)(-4)
6:30 p.m. Qwest Field
Eventually, a team is going to have to do something about Steve Smith. The Panthers are out of weapons other than number 89. You would have to assume that Mike Holmgren is going to go up to his defense and tell them that anyone else can beat us, except that Smith guy. Double team him. Triple team him if you have to. Whatever Seattle does, hopefully it won’t be a page out of the Bears defensive game plan. The Bears decided to single cover Smith with the average Charles Tillman. And this Bears defense was supposed to be all mighty? Then explain to me why the Bears left Tillman on Smith after he burned the Bears on long passes…twice. Not to mention all the underneath routes that Tillman couldn’t cover. I’m going to assume that Seattle is going to put as many players as possible on Smith. It would make sense.

That’s why I’m going to go with Seattle and with both home teams this week. If you go back to my midseason prediction post, I had this game right on the money. Carolina at Seattle for the conference championship. However, I had Carolina winning. I’m going to change my mind on this game. Seattle’s offense is so good, they didn’t even need the league MVP to beat a talented Redskins defense. They get Shaun Alexander back this week, and the Panthers lost their featured running back. Everything is pointing towards Seattle.

If Holmgren and company watched any tape of the game last week, then their only priority in practice must be stopping Steve Smith. If you stop Smith, you stop the Panthers offense (and if they choose to play like the Bears defense, I can't be held responsible for this pick). And if the sorry, no account Bears offense can put up 21 points on Carolina’s defense, then Seattle should be able to do even better. Add in some key defensive injuries for the Panthers, and I think their run ends here.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 16

Seahawks End Redskins Run

KNOCKOUT PUNCH

Matt Hasselbeck scores six for Seattle on a crucial third-down play

Sorry it took so long to get this post up. It’s not like I was avoiding the website or anything. I just wasn’t near my computer for the past 24 hours. After the Redskins game, I went to College Park for the night and stayed there for a while. Then I snuck into the Maryland-Wake Forest game with some friends (take that, Maryland Athletic Department!). That is the reason that I didn’t write a postgame wrap-up or a preview for the Terps-Wake game. So for someone to suggest that I was shying away from making a post because the Redskins lost is completely wrong.

Ok, now to the Redskins game. I’m disappointed they lost obviously. I really didn’t expect them to win. But when Shaun Alexander went out in the first quarter, and the Redskins defense was knocking Seahawks out left and right, it looked promising and I got my hopes up. The Redskins certainly had their chances to win (when Matt Hasselbeck leads the team in rushing for three quarters, that usually doesn’t bode well for Seattle). But the Redskins offense couldn’t make the plays when it counted and the Seahawks offense did just enough. Seattle was simply the better team. The Redskins, with all their injuries were completely spent. They were running on fumes. And the Seahawks are too good of team to play in that situation. So congrats to the Seahawks and their fans. They’ve waited long enough for a playoff win. I hope Seattle goes on and wins the Super Bowl this season. I don’t feel awful losing to a classy organization like Seattle. Better than losing to scum like Philly or Dallas or the Giants. And it wasn’t a heartbreaking loss either. It wasn't one of those games that comes down to one play or one mistake or one bad call. Like the Jeffery Maier game. Or the game when Gus Frerotte decided to bang his head against a wall. Those stick with you as a fan for years to come. This game didn't fall under that category.

For the overall season, I’m extremely proud of what the Redskins accomplished (I will have a more complete wrap-up of the Redskins season after the Super Bowl). If you told the average Redskins fan at the beginning of the season that the team would make the second round of the playoffs, they would have been happy with it. No one outside the Washington area expected this team to win more than six games (By the way, ESPN said they would win five and Sports Illustrated said they would win four). So I’m thrilled with the results of this year. The second round of the playoffs is quite an accomplishment for a team with one NFL caliber receiver, a 35-year old quarterback and a defensive line made up of castoffs. So for the few fans that are upset with the way the season turned out, please don’t be. Just imagine what it would be like to be a Colts fan this year. Or an Eagles fan. That’s real disappointment. This season will be used as a stepping-stone.

The entire nucleus of the team will be back next season. The coaching staff will all be back as well. The only major player that is a free agent is Ryan Clark. And despite ESPN saying that Redskins are 20 million over the salary cap, that number has been proven wrong by all capable media outlets (FOX, CBS and even the NFL itself). The Redskins will probably be a couple of million dollars over, which shouldn’t be too hard to maneuver around. Especially when they don’t have to sign a first round pick in a weak draft (unless you can pick Reggie Bush). This team will have another year of experience and another year of continuity under its belt. This is one of the tightest knit Redskins teams I can remember. The players all love each other and work so well together. And they are dedicated to Joe Gibbs. After the game, the Washington Post reported that almost every player was already making plans to start their offseason conditioning programs with one another. I love the sound of that. This team is happy with what they accomplished, but they are hungry for more. The Redskins will be better next season. Write it down. I’m guaranteeing it. I wish we could start the next season in March, but alas, we must wait until September.

Clearly, there are some issues the Redskins need to address. The quarterback situation is one. Personally, I think Mark Brunell has one more good season left in him if he’s healthy. So stick it out one more year with him. The Skins obviously need to add another receiver. Hopefully a big possession receiver that can go after jump balls once the team gets inside the redzone. Don’t blame Brunell for all the struggles the last few weeks. The reason he couldn’t throw well is because no one was getting open. And would you really want him to throw to scrub Taylor Jacobs (who will be cut as soon as possible). The reason Brunell was running backwards half the time in the Seattle game was because no one was open. He was trying to buy time. Moss was double or tripled covered, and the rest of the receivers are horrible. So that will need to be addressed. Finally, the Redskins are going to have to figure out what to do with Lavar Arrington. I’ll be cool with it if they keep him or cut him. Whatever is better for the team.

So mark my words. The Redskins will be an improved team next season. Dallas is going to be worse. The Giants won’t get much better. And who knows what’s going on in Philadelphia. The Skins have easy games (at least they look easy at the moment) against Houston, New Orleans, Tennessee and St. Louis. They get tougher games against Jacksonville, Minnesota, Atlanta and Carolina at home. They’ll have two tough road tests against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay, so don’t expect the Redskins to run the table. Optimism is one thing, but let’s not get crazy here. But their schedule appears favorable. It is setting up to be an exciting 2006-2007 season here in the D.C. area. I just wish we could get started now.

Redskins at Seahawks, Divisional Playoffs: The Battle In Rainy Seattle

Washington Redskins (11-6) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
4:30 p.m. Qwest Field
NFC Divisional Playoff Game
The Washington Redskins road trip through the postseason continues as they journey to the land of clouds, coffee and Kurt Cobain. The Skins get set in the great Pacific Northwest for their game this weekend against the very well rested Seattle Seahawks. This is a team that finished 13-3. A team that had the best rushing attack in the NFL. A team that went 8-0 at home. Uh-oh.

Before I start to evaluate the seemingly invincible Seahawks, it is time once again, to rip the media. I know I’m starting to sound like right-wing goon Rush Limbaugh, but my criticisms are valid at least. To anyone that says I’m one of these East Coast biased sports fans, let this argument show that I am an equal opportunity basher when it comes to hating on large media outlets. The Seattle Times decided this week to limit the use of the word “Redskins” in its paper. Reporters can only use the term once per article or column, and can only use Redskins if it is preceded by the word Washington. How juvenile is this? I guess this is supposed to be some kind of political statement. The Times seems to think that the city of Washington is proudly demeaning the Native American people. Funny, this coming from a city whose descendents come from a long line of people who settled the Seattle and surrounding areas by methodically killing innocent Native Americans for no reason other than greed (If you haven’t read Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee, you should. It is a fantastically informative book that describes the atrocities that took place in the American West in the late 1800’s). Suddenly, naming a sports franchise Redskins doesn't seem so bad. On top of the irony factor, it is just plain brainless for a major newspaper to be pulling stunts like this. First of all, the Times had no problem using Redskins in their articles during the entire season. In all their game recaps, including the game recap from the Week 4 matchup between the Skins and Hawks, the paper used Redskins often. So why the sudden change of heart? Secondly, using only the word Washington to refer to the Redskins sounds ridiculous. It makes for bad writing. Especially in a state that shares the same name. My favorite article in the Times from the past week was on Mark Brunell. Brunell played for the University of Washington. So it was hilarious to read the article that tried to examine Brunell’s career using the word Washington to describe two different places. The article was so confusing and poorly written. It really made the Times look like a second or third-rate amateur newspaper. Well done fellas.

The other Seattle newspaper, the Post-Intelligencer, also makes my list. It was nothing that the paper did that caught my attention. It was another quote from Fat Ass Chris Berman that earned the P-I a spot in this post. As I talked about in my post on Sunday, Berman was clearly ticked that the Redskins won and that Sean Taylor wasn’t going to be suspended. So I imagine that Tubby was even more annoyed when it became official that the NFL decided to let Taylor play this weekend. Here is his quote from the P-I Thursday edition:

"Seventeen thousand bucks seemed a little lower than the going rate for that," said ESPN's Chris Berman, who attended Seahawks practice at the behest of owner Paul Allen on Wednesday. "He's fortunate it's not a larger fine. It's B.S. It's a rough, brutal sport, but there's no need. You should be above that in the NFL."

Berman, get your fat ass off your high horse. Firstly, 17 K is not lower than the going rate. Bill Romanowski was fined $7,500 for a much worse and much more vivid spitting incident a few years ago. I thought Berman went to an Ivy League school where they could do math. Last I checked, 17,000 was more than 7,500. I didn't hear you complaining when Ed Reed was only fined $15,000 dollars for making contact with an offcial (which should have resulted in an automatic suspension). Secondly, what the hell is Berman doing at a Seahawk practice at “the behest of owner Paul Allen”? Berman you dope, you’re supposed to be unbiased (which we all know is not the case). What are you doing getting chummy with one team and not the other? This is unbelievable. What happened to journalistic integrity? Obviously, I’m rooting for the Redskins because I’m a diehard fan. But now I want to see the Redskins keep winning for another reason. So Chubby has to keep talking about them. Nothing would make me happier than seeing Berman anchor Super Bowl coverage while being forced to talk about the Redskins for two weeks straight. I would tape it. It would be so great.

Wait a minute? Did Mark just say the two magic words? Super Bowl? Hold on there chief. Ok, must have been a Freudian slip, I apologize. The Redskins (and I have no qualms about calling them the Redskins) are hardly in Detroit yet. In fact, most think that they have no chance to beat Seattle this weekend. And based on what I’ve seen from the Seahawks this season, I would tend to agree.

However, the Redskins are one of three teams to beat the Seahawks this season. All the dopes at ESPN are trying to convince you that it was a fluke victory. I’ll concede that the Redskins got a bit lucky down the stretch in that game, but they dominated the contest for about 50 minutes. It wasn’t like Seattle played well and had a couple of bad bounces go against them. The Redskins went into the fourth quarter with a 14-3 lead. It took a couple of defensive injuries, and some mind-boggling runs from Shaun Alexander to make the game interesting. And if it wasn’t for a fluke play (there’s that word fluke again), the Redskins would have won before overtime. But a pass by Brunell sailed right through the open hands of Clinton Portis and into the hands of a Seahawks defensive back with two minutes to go. Only a Josh Brown missed field goal and the overtime coin toss saved the Skins. So a fluke win? In some ways. But what I saw in that game is encouraging when it comes to this weekend. For most of the game, the Redskins controlled the tempo and the pace. The Skins moved the ball effectively on third down, while the Seahawks did not. So why can’t they do it again?

The Seahawks, more than any other team in the league, need to play the game in their tempo. The Hawks offense must establish a rhythm to be effective. Watching Seattle drive down the field is watching football poetry in motion. They get in the huddle, get to the line of scrimmage, get a chunk of yards, and get right back to work. There is no wandering aimlessly around before the snap. They don’t fool around in the huddle. The offense moves as a collective unit. Very efficient, very effective, very dangerous. When they set the pace, they become impossible to stop.

The Redskins were able to jump out to a 14-3 lead because they kept Seattle out of their rhythm. The Skins offense kept Seattle’s off the field for a good amount of time in the first half. The Skins nearly doubled up on time of possession and allowed the Hawks to run only 21 plays (the average per half is around 32-35). The Redskins did this by converting on five third downs of eight yards and longer. Santana Moss was a huge factor on third down, as the Seahawks defeneders refused to cover him. Moss can't disappear like he did against Tampa last week.


2 catches for 18 yards isn't going to cut it this week.

The Skins also knocked Seattle off their game by stopping the Hawks on first down. Like any great running team, and like any team running the West Coast Offense, the Seahawks must get four or five yards on first down to be successful. Seattle gained the most yards in the NFL on first down this season. However, get the Seahawks into third and more than five, their offense tends to stutter. They are strictly average when it comes to converting on third downs. And the Redskins defense is one of the best in the league on third downs. Take the win over Tampa as an example. The Taylor touchdown return was on a third down. Two of the three sacks on Chris Simms were on third downs. On the Bucs last four third downs of the game, the Redskins defense forced three incompletions and a one-yard run (on a third and two).

However, in order to get the Seahawks to third and medium or third and long, the Redskins are going to have to figure out how to stop Alexander on first and second. How can Washington accomplish this? To be honest, I don’t know. Maybe Gregg Williams can experiment with a 12-man defense this week. Heck, Lavar hardly plays as it is. Would anybody really notice if he ran on the field at the last minute? It’s worth looking into.


How can the Redskins stop this man? Well, let's see...um, you could...uh, why not put...no, that won't work...hmmm...can you get back to me on this?

Seriously though, there is a reason that Alexander is NFL MVP. There’s a reason that he scored an NFL record 28 touchdowns this year. There’s a reason he ran for 1,880 yards this season. He’s pretty darn good. And the left side of the offensive line is even better. Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson are starting in the Pro Bowl this season, and they happen to be starting for the Seahawks this weekend. The Seahawks offense is unconventional in one main way. They run left. And they run to the left a lot. Most teams in the NFL run to the right side, or typical strong side, of their offensive line with regularity. Seattle usually runs to the left. Even though the Seahawks keep the right side as their strong side, they love running left to the weak side. And they do it better than any team in the NFL. And that is because of Jones and Hutchinson. You can leave both of those guys on an island, and they are going to win the battle. They don’t need strong side help to seal off their blocks. Teams are afraid to run to the weak side because all it takes is one mistake by one player, and the play is going to go backward (Whereas, on the strong side, you can have a player miss a block and still have an effective run). But the reward of running to the weak side is that there are usually less defenders. So if Jones and Hutchinson stick their men, then Alexander has a huge hole to hit with only the safety to beat. And even if he doesn’t beat the safety, he still manages to get to the second and third level of the defense and pick up a chunk of yards.

The Redskins played well against Alexander the first time. Again, Alexander only got going after a couple of injuries to the Redskins front seven. But anytime you can limit Alexander to 98 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, you got to feel good about your chances. However, unlike the last few teams the Skins have faced during this six game winning streak, Seattle’s offense isn’t one-dimensional.

Against Dallas, New York and Tampa, the Skins wanted to force the ball into the hands of the quarterback. They didn’t want the running game to beat them. If you force Matt Hasselbeck to make plays, you might be playing into the hands of Seattle. Hasselbeck, like the rest of the Seahawks offense, had an outstanding year. And Hasselbeck did it despite having limited talent to throw the ball to. Hasselbeck’s best receiver, Darrell Jackson, got hurt in the game against Washington, and didn’t play most of the season. Matt’s remaining targets are Bobby Engram, Joe Jurevicius and tight end Jerramy Stevens. Not all that scary. But when teams were forced to put eight, or even nine in the box to stop Alexander, those receivers ran wild through defensive backfields. Seattle, like any great offense, keeps you guessing. They pass out of run formations. They run out of passing formations. They’ll run left, not right. They’ll lull you to sleep with Alexander and then go deep to Engram. It is an unpredictable offense, and unstoppable once they get going.

Defensively, the Seahawks are average. Their defense is much improved from last year, but that’s not saying much. They have a lot of young guys, including rookie middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu, in the lineup. A brain surgeon like Joe Gibbs should be able to figure out a way to confuse the young kids. Plus, they are a very small defense. Their linebacking core is about 3 inches and 25 pounds lighter than the NFL average. The backfield is also smaller and lighter than normal. They give up a lot of yards (19th in terms of yards allowed). But they are in the Top 10 in red zone defense. This leads to the Seahawks defense being known as a bend-but-don't-break unit. And their speed allows them to get after the quarterback real well. They led the NFL with 50 sacks. But, it is a defense that the larger, more physical Redskins should be able to move the ball on. They just have to figure out how to score. So without more delay, here are the keys to the game for both teams.

For the Redskins:
1. Pound the middle. Attack the middle of the Seattle defense. This will accomplish three things. First, it will get yards. Portis and Ladell Betts should have a field day up the middle against this undersized defense. Second, it will set up the long pass. The Seahawks defense does have a tendency to get burned on the long ball. Finally, it will control the clock and keep Seattle’s offense off the field.
2. Control the clock. I know I just said it. But it is worth mentioning again. If the Redskins control the clock, they can wear down the smaller Seattle defense, and they keep the Hawks offense off the field. Simple enough.
3. Stop Alexander on first down. The Redskins defense is going to have to pick their poison. I would advocate moving Taylor up in the box to stop the run. I know Williams doesn’t like playing eight at the line. Too bad. The Seahawks are too good up front. I know that leaves the Skins vulnerable downfield on first down, but if they let Alexander get five yards a carry on first down, they’ll have no chance to win.
4. Keep the Hawks guessing. I said earlier that the Hawks offense is balanced and unpredictable. They run and throw very well. The Redskins defense has to be equally unpredictable. Instead of allowing Seattle to force the defense into a guessing game, force the Seattle offense to guess what the defense is going to do. The Skins did this effectively in the first meeting, and they need to do it again.

For the Seahawks:
1. Set the tempo. I already went over this. The Seahawks offense is based on rhythm. If they get into the flow of their offense, no one is going to stop them
2. Watch the overload blitzes. Lately, Gregg Williams has been throwing a lot of overload blitzes at offenses. The best way to beat an overload blitz, or most blitzes for that matter, is a screen pass. But Alexander is not a great receiver and Seattle does not run screen passes all that well. So the Hawks are simply going to have to anticipate and pick up an overload blitz whenever Williams sends one. They have a good enough offensive line to do this, its just a matter of reading the defense correctly.
3. Stop the Skins on third down. When the Seahawks have the ball, first down is the most important down. But third down is more important when the Skins have the ball. The main reason Seattle lost the first meeting, other than Josh Brown’s doinked field goal attempt, was the inability of the defense to stop the Skins on third down. The Redskins were 13-18 on third, and most of those came in third and long situations. Seattle needs to force three and outs and get their offense on the field as quickly as possible.
4. Don’t call a tight game. This is for Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren. Ever since leaving Green Bay, Holmgren seems to have lost his touch down the crucial stretches of games. If you thought Gibbs got conservative with fourth quarter leads, Holmgren is even worse. Holmgren has been fortunate that Alexander and the offensive line are so good that they can melt away the clock. But if they have a late lead, the Redskins defense is too good to allow Alexander and company to shorten the game. Holmgren is going to need to stay aggressive.

The last factor to talk about will be the weather. The media is making this a bigger deal than it actually is. Apparently, it has been raining for 25 straight days in Seattle. Gee, no kidding. What’s next? A warm day in Phoenix? Snow in Fairbanks? Sand in the Sahara? It shouldn’t be too much of a disadvantage for the Redskins, who practiced in rain twice this week. Plus, Seattle has been forced to practice inside this week because their outdoor fields were waterlogged. But did anyone see Boomer Esiason on ESPN the other day? He said if it rains, then Mark Brunell is going to struggle. Boomer, you Maryland moron, Brunell grew up and played college ball in Washington (state). Then he went to Green Bay and Jacksonville, two places where weather is often a factor. Few quarterbacks in this league play better in the rain. Plus, the Redskins power game is built for bad weather.

It should be a great game tomorrow. For those who think that the Redskins are going to get blown out of the Puget Sound, I say get ready for a rude reality check. I know that the first seed in the NFC hasn’t lost their opening game since 1988. But the playoff teams this season are so even to one another. This one should be close, and very entertaining. If the Redskins hold the Seahawks to under 20 points, they should win this game. Obviously, that is much easier said than done. As I said last week, if this is the last game of the Redskins season, no Redskins fan should hang their heads in shame or even in disappointment. This has, and continues to be a wonderful run, and hopefully it will continue.

NFL Playoffs: Is Rex Grossman Really The Second Coming?

Is it just me, or does Ben Roethlisberger become more and more unlikable every time he appears on television. During the games, all he does is complain to the refs every time an opposing defender breathes on him. Hey Ben, you’re 6-5, suck it up. And during his postgame interviews, he seems very arrogant. Almost like he’s too good or too busy to talk to media. Well, hopefully after this week, we won’t have to see Big Ben until next season. As for last week’s playoff picks, I was 2-1 (moving my overall record to 167-81). That’s about what I expected. I took a shot with Cincinnati, and Carson Palmer took a shot in the knee. There went my upset pick. Here are the divisional round playoff predictions, and I’m sorry if I’m a little off today, I’m under the weather:

SATURDAY


New England Patriots (11-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)(-3)
8:00 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium
How much does the media slurp up to New England? Well, CBS had its choice of putting either the Indy-Pittsburgh game in the primetime slot, or this game featuring the Patriots and Broncos. Let’s see, if I’m a television executive, I’d rather have the Colts game air in primetime. You have the Colts, a team that captivated the NFL nation for the entire season, with the most entertaining offense left in the playoffs, trying to break their recent streak of futility. Plus, you have the story of Tony Dungy trying to overcome the heartbreaking loss of his oldest son by leading his team to the Super Bowl. And you have the Steelers, who have one of the best nationwide fan bases in the league. Instead, CBS goes with the “Golden Boys” of New England, who’ve managed to turn winning into a rather boring science while sucking the last bit of fun and intrigue out of the NFL. New England faces a slow, methodical, dull Denver team whose only strategy is to run the ball 20 straight plays and hope the clock runs out. But New England needs some more respect; so let’s subject the primetime audience to the lesser of the two games.
Now to the analysis of the actual contest. This game will hinge on Denver’s ability to run the football. If Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell (assuming he’s finally healthy) and the Denver offensive line can control the line of scrimmage, it is going to be tough for New England to stop them. I don’t care if Robert Craft figures out a way to clone Tedy Bruschi and have 11 Bruschis on the field, if Denver’s offensive line blocks to their capability, the New England defense won’t stand a chance. There is no offensive line better than Denver’s. If they don’t play well, look for the old Jake Plummer to return and hand the game over to the Pats.
One more proof of Patriot media-slurping. My Sports Illustrated arrives today, and on the cover is a little box saying “Get Ready for Rematch Weekend.” There are four pictures in the box. One of Shaun Alexander and the favored, home standing Seahawks. One of Brian Urlacher and the favored, home standing Bears. One of Peyton Manning and the favored, home standing Colts. And the fourth was of Tom Brady and the underdog, visiting Patriots. It’s little things like that that tick me off. Wouldn’t it stand to reason that Jake Plummer or Mike Anderson would have their picture on the cover? Every freakin’ media outlet does this kind of thing. Please Denver, put a stop to this.
Pick: Broncos 27, Patriots 21

SUNDAY


Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Indianapolis Colts (14-2)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
As dirty as the Steelers usually play, the hit on Palmer last week was legal and clean. Kimo von Oelhoffen was trying to bull rush his offensive lineman. As he was charging, he was shoved to the ground, but managed to get by the line and have a shot at Palmer. The only chance for von Oelhoffen to get Palmer and not get called for a late hit was low. So it was a clean hit and a bad break for Cincinnati. It would have helped the Bengals immensely if their safeties Kevin Kaesviharn and Ifeanyi Ohalete could cover anybody. I guess they were too busy trying to spell their names.
Anyway, Pittsburgh moves on to face the steamroller that is the Colts. Let’s go position by position and see if anyone, outside the slums of the greater Pittsburgh area, would take the Steelers:
Peyton Manning vs. Roethlisberger. I think Manning gets the overwhelming nod.
Edge vs. Willie Parker and The Bus. Go with Edge, unless the Steelers start every drive for the opponent’s one-yard line.
Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark vs. Hines Ward, Randle-El, Cedrick Wilson and Heath Miller. I would take Harrison alone against the other four combined.
The Colts All-Pro offensive line vs. Pittsburgh front seven. It will be a good matchup, but the Colts line is bettered only by Denver’s.
Pittsburgh average and beat up offensive line against the Colts front seven. Please, Freeney, June, Mathis and company are going to have a field day.
The coaching matchup between Tony Dungy and Bill Cowher. Well, that is basically even. I’ll call it a toss up.
So the Colts are better at almost every position on the field. And they already crushed the Steelers at the RCA Dome not long ago. Don’t see this game turning out much differently.
Pick: Colts 34, Steelers 17



Carolina Panthers (12-5) at Chicago Bears (11-5)(-3)
4:30 p.m. Solider Field
All I hear about this game is how weather will be a factor. Does anyone care enough to actually look at the player matchup for this one? Who cares about the weather? Unless it’s 10 below, I don’t see that being the difference maker for the Bears. They are going to have to earn it on the field.
Like the Colts-Steelers first game, the Bears-Panthers first meeting wasn’t that long ago either. The Bears defense crushed the Panthers and Jake Delhomme with eight sacks and plenty of forced turnovers. And the Bears now have Rex “The Savior” Grossman leading the way. How can they lose?
Well, because Rex Grossman is leading the way. Grossman has thrown exactly 39 passes this season. He has one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His quarterback rating is under 60. In his three-year career, Grossman has played in a grand total of eight football games. He has five victories. In only three of those games did Grossman post a quarterback rating higher than 70. Only twice has Grossman surpassed 90 (naturally, one of those was against the Redskins in 2003). For his career, Grossman has thrown for only 1,303 yards, 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times. His career passer’s rating is 68.8. And this is the guy that Lovie Smith and the Bears are pinning their playoff hopes on? What am I missing here?
You can talk about the Bears defense all you want. They’re terrific, no one disputes that. But to basically ignore the lack of experience that Grossman has, and to go a step further and say that he is the reason the Bears are going to make it to the next level, is insane. Did anyone see what happened to Byron Leftwich last week? How about Chris Simms? Or what about Eli Manning? And all three of those quarterbacks have more experience and more talent than Sexy Rexy. And Grossman will be going against the same Panthers defense that made Eli Manning look like garbage only a few days ago.
Look, this Bears team has been living on borrowed time. They took advantage of a horrendous division and one of the league’s easiest schedules. I’m not saying that this team is a fluke. I’m just saying that the Bears are going to be overwhelmed this Sunday. So unless we have Ice Bowl-like conditions, this one goes to the visitors.
Pick: Panthers 17, Bears 10

If tomorrow is Friday, that means it's almost time for another Redskins preview. This week it's a rematch with the Seahawks.

Maryland Basketball: Revenge Of The Nerds

#23/21 Maryland Terrapins (11-3, 1-1 ACC) at
#1/1 Duke Blue Devils (14-0, 2-0 ACC)
Cameron Arena – Durham, NC

Let’s see here. $30,000 a year in tuition? Check. A shabby tent to camp out in? Check. Blue fingerpaint? Big blue check mark. Caffeine pills? Check. Cheer sheet? I’ve got mine. This checklist could only mean one thing. It’s time for Maryland’s yearly visit to the foul depths of Durham to take on the overrated Dookies.

Shhhhhhhh…very quietly, the Maryland Terrapins have racked up a three game winning streak against the Blow Devils. That includes a win at Comcast Center, a win on a neutral court in the ACC championship and another win at Cameron Arena (I refuse to call it Cameron Indoor Stadium. First off, it’s not a stadium. Secondly, the game obviously takes place indoors. You don’t need to include that in the arena name. I’m sure most opponents wouldn’t show up to the outdoor rec-center blacktops if the word “indoor” wasn’t inserted. It's just so stupid.).

On top of the three game winning streak, Maryland has won five of the last eight against Duke, and they have split the last fourteen meetings. Still think Duke owns Maryland? Still think the Terps got lucky a couple of times? If anything, it has been Duke getting fortunate wins over Maryland the past 6 years. The refs helped them to two wins in 2001 (The 54 second game and Final Four game, which included two of my favorite pro-Duke calls of all-time. The first being Evil Knevil Williams tripping Steve Blake at half court, only to have a charging foul called on Blake. The second was Lonny Baxter’s clean block on Scrotum-head Shane, only to be whistled for his fifth foul). The Dookies also survived a last second miss by Saint Juan in the ACC Championship game that year. And in 2004, Maryland lost at home to Duke when Chris McCray used the unconventional strategy to leave J(ust) J(umpers) Redick wide open for the entire second half. Duke barely scratched out a win anyway. Maryland’s wins the past six years have been well earned. No flukes. When they beat the Dookies, they really beat them. Almost as well as Shelden Williams beats underage girls before he rapes them. No still means no, buddy.

I’m sure the caffeinated nerds that pack Cameron are well aware of Maryland’s recent dominance in the series. So the most unattractive fans this side of New York City will cram the student section, armed with a full supply of cheer sheets. Actually, since most of the students come from the New York-New Jersey armpit, it is the same bandwagon fan base that roots for the Yankees. But they jump up and down in unison. And they have cheer sheets and know how to use 'em. Look out! Hopefully this year, they make sure they have the right ones and aren’t duped by Maryland students into chanting anti-Dook jingles.

And just what does Gary’s bunch think of the Cameron “home court advantage”. YAWWWWWWWNNNN. They don’t care. It doesn’t affect them. Everybody on the team, except for David “Tweeder” Neal, has won in this building. It’s just another gym to play basketball in to the Terps. In fact, Gary’s teams play better on the road in hostile buildings than they do on the road in morgue-like atmospheres (see 1/07/06, at Miami).

But Mark, everyone says that Duke is really really good this season. They may be the best team to ever step on the parquet floors. Haha, not so fast. This version of the Dookies is basically the same team that collapsed in the NCAA tournament last season (which is still further than Maryland got). In fact, I’d say last year’s team was better. The 2005 Dookies at least had Daniel Ewing to play point when they needed him. The 2006 Dookies are still a two-man team. They still have no depth. They still have no inside presence when the Rapist is on the bench. They still get out rebounded by wide margins. And Ratface plays a bunch of freshmen. And this is supposed to be the best team in America? Hardly.

Let’s take a closer look at the 2006 Floor-Slappers. Obviously, everyone knows about Bacne and the Rapist. We’ll get to them in a moment. But let’s take a peak at the other returning and some of the new geeks that Ratface puts on the floor this season. We have Lee “requisite Duke white-stiff” Melchionni. His numbers are exactly the same as they were last season. Exactly the same, except he’s shooting slightly worse from the field. He’s had three decent games all season. He played well at Wake (more on that a bit later) and he played well against Valparaiso and Davidson. That’s it. That’s the list. He had a solid 0-point/16-minute effort against Memphis, a 3-point/19 minute game against Texas, and a superb 5-point/24-minute performance against Virginia Tech. So unless the Terps triple-team Redick, White Stiff won’t be doing much tonight.

Next up is Sean Dockery. Dockery, one of the few Devils I can stand, is a capable scorer if he’s needed, and can handle the ball adequately. But like Nik Caner-Medley and White Stiff, he’s nowhere to be found in big games. So those stats of his are a bit inflated. He had 8 points against both Memphis and Wake, 7 points against Texas and, my favorite performance, 2 points, 3 assists and 2 turnovers against Indiana.

The main point guard in K’s offense is Greg Paulus (WARNING: freshman guard starting in the ACC). Like any typical high-recruited freshman, Paulus has his bad games and his good ones. The bad games tend to come a bit more frequently for Little Redick. Sure the five assists a game look nice. But like Dockery, his stats are inflated by a couple of great games. Like the 15 assist performance against lousy Valpo. Or the seven assist games against St. Johns and Bucknell. The overall stats tend to outshine the crummy performances against good teams. Like his five-point, four turnover game against Memphis. Or his five-turnover game against Indiana. Or his “White Stiff-esque” 0-point, 25-minute performance against Drexel. Or his 2-point, 2 assist, 5 turnover and 5 fouls effort against Penn. Or his 3 assist, 6 turnover game against Wake. I could continue, but I think my point is made. Live with a freshman point guard, die with a freshman point guard.

Along with Rapist in the frontcourt there is Josh McRoberts. What’s this? A bonus white-stiff! Oh Ratface, you make it too easy for me. From the five or six Dook games I’ve watched this season, Big White Stiff is just a foul waiting to happen. He is slow getting up and down the court. He has poor footwork under the basket. He gets in horrible position defensively and equally bad position trying to box out for boards. This guy is a slightly taller version of Shavlik Randolph. The only thing that McRandolph does well is commit fouls so the Rapist doesn’t have to. Let’s not waste any more time on him.

One of K’s bench players is Martynas Pocius. That’s right. Ratface was so tired of getting beat by Wake Forest’s and NC State’s European players, he went out and got one of his own. How cute. Euro Trash plays 10 minutes a game and is basically a non-factor for the Devils. Like any Eastern European player, he can shoot if left open. But if you thought Redick had problems creating his own shot, just wait until you see this guy. He will literally stand in the same spot at the top of the perimeter, with his hands out in front of his body begging for the ball, for an entire possession. Does K teach how to move without the ball?

The only other player worth mentioning is DeMarcus Nelson. Nelson can be dangerous if healthy. The only problem is that Nelson is never 100%. I’m sure that Nelson’s healthy-again, injured-again status is fun to follow down in Durham. I’m sure the Duke coeds have made plenty of bets regarding his playing status (“If he plays, I win and I get your slide ruler!”). Supposedly, he’ll play tonight. He looked bad and gimpy against Wake, so don’t look for many minutes out of him.

Ok, now to the terrible twosome. I don’t think that I need to hype Jumpers and the Rapist anymore than they have been. To consider either one of these players as the best in the country is an absolute joke. Adam Morrison and Craig Smith seem to be much better. Neither Redick nor Williams are complete players. Redick is still scared to go inside and Gaylord commits too many fouls. And to think that this team is unstoppable because they have two decent players is ridiculous. Maryland’s faced better Duke teams before and won. They beat, although not often, the Scrotum Head-Motorcycle Stunt Driver-Boozer combination a few years ago. This Redick-Williams team isn’t even in the same class.

But on the other hand, what exactly has Maryland done this year to warrant me picking them to win this game? The answer is nothing. They haven’t played a solid 40 minutes against a half-decent team the entire season. On top of this, Gary had a 30-minute closed door meeting with his team following the ugly loss to Miami. Usually when Gary does something like that it means there will be lineup changes. But Gary hasn’t let on to the media and no one has any clue what those would be (I’m guessing less Travis Garrison and more three guard sets). And while Duke may not be the best team in the country, they can certainly run circles around you if you come out flat or uninspired or unorganized for any length of time. But that's why I’m picking Maryland tonight. Because there is no logical reason to pick the Terps, it is all the more reason to pick the Terps.

Before the Duke-Maryland game last year at Comcast, I got the chance to interview Dick Vitale and the chance to talk with Michael Wilbon. Both said, off the record at the time, that Gary knows how to beat Ratface (although neither of them actually called him Ratface, but I digress). Both told me he’s figured it out. And Wilbon seemed to think that Bacne and company are actually a bit intimidated by Maryland. Wilbon believes that Bacne has a tendency to get tight (aka: choke) in big games. I wouldn’t necessarily agree completely with Wilbon (just watch Redick’s game against Texas), but Just Jumpers does have a bad track record in the NCAA’s and against both UNC and Maryland. And in the last three games that Maryland won against Duke, no one gave them a chance. So why not go with them again.

The strategy to beating Duke is both simple and tough to accomplish at the same time. I had the whole thing drawn out a couple of days ago and I was going to seem like a genius. But then Digger Phelps stole my thunder. On ESPN on Monday night, Phelps articulated how to stop Redick from having a good night. And it’s something that I’ve been saying for the past three years. You wear Redick out when he plays defense. The Terps have two big advantages over Duke. They rebound a lot better. And as always, they have superior depth. They must use this depth to beat Redick. He is going to play almost every minute in the first half. Whoever Redick is guarding, most likely McCray, must run all over the place. Maryland has always been a better conditioned team than Duke (mostly because of the depth Gary stockpiles). Redick, like all jump shooters, uses his legs as the power to drive his 3-point shots. If you tire him out in the first half, he is going to be spent in the second half. The shots will not fall. We’ve seen this year after year in the NCAA tournament. Redick plays too much during the regular season, and by the time he gets into March, he is exhausted. This isn’t his fault; it’s bad coaching by Ratface. He shot 15% or so worse from the field during the tournament than he did during the regular season. This is because his legs are over worked. So, when he plays defense, make him work hard. Really hard. Make him run early and often. And when Duke has the ball, make him really earn his shot. Make him run around some more. Make him fight off screens. Knock him down a little bit. Bump him, elbow him, out-muscle him. He is soft and doesn’t respond well in physical games. By the second half, he’ll be begging to come off the court. This isn’t easy to accomplish, but that is how you stop Bacne.

The other option is to let Bacne get his points, and focus on the rest of the Dookies. Wake ignored this strategy and failed. They decided to double, and triple team Redick. This allowed White Stiff to have his best game of the season. He was uncovered most of the game because Wake swarmed around Redick. And Jumpers still beat them. Here is what Maryland ought to do. Do not put McCray on Redick. Stick Strawberry on Redick if Strawberry is healthy (and there are rumors that he is hurt again). Redick will get his points on Straw, but at least D.J. will make him earn it. And have McCray do what I just said when the Terps have the ball. Run all over the court and tire Redick out. At the same time, Maryland needs to attack the inside early and often. Get Williams in foul trouble…like always. Maryland needs to use its four-man rotation in the front court to their advantage. The Terps need to keep feeding the ball inside, and need to keep backing down and posting up on the Rapist (I know how that reads, but it wasn’t meant to sound dirty). This means that Travis Garrison has to do something. He actually has to play like a forward. And it also means that James Gist must steer clear of foul trouble. Duke may go into halftime with the lead, but if Maryland can wear out Redick, and get three fouls on Williams, they’ll have the Dookies right where they want ‘em.

In the second frame, Williams will spend a lot of time on the bench. This will allow Maryland to focus a bit more on Redick, and will force Duke to win with their role players. I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the game come down to Dockery, White Stiff and Duke’s freshmen against Maryland’s seasoned 10-man rotation.

So while Duke is, and should be, the favorite going into tonight’s game, I’m going to go with Maryland anyway. I’ve been saying all season that Maryland has had a tendency over the past 15 years to play down to its opponent’s level. Well, the reverse of that is they also play up to their opponent’s level. According to the experts, Gary knows how to beat Ratface. Maryland is in desperate need for some redemption after that ugly performance against Miami. Like always, no one is giving Maryland a chance. But they seem to find a way to beat the Dookies anyway. Plus, I can’t pick Duke over the Terps. How could I live with myself? If the Terps go down, I’m going down with them.

As for Duke’s famed home-court advantage? Please, the crowd is more interested in getting their cheers right than they are in actually watching the basketball game. So spare me more gushing over this cheer sheet needing, bandwagon jumping, New Jersey infested, nerds-a-plenty fan base. If Maryland loses, it won’t be because of them.

Maryland 84
Duke 82

Elsewhere in the ACC...

As I said yesterday, I was going to combine the short Tuesday post into today's preview. And for all of you that thought I would cheat, I guess this shows you. Despite incorrectly picking Boston College last night (what the hell is wrong with the Eagles?), I left that pick in anyway. After a 4-0 start, I had an ugly 2-4 weekend in conference. So the record falls to 6-4 overall. I'm trying to pick it up a bit this week, but it doesn't look good.

Tuesday
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
The only upset I correctly predicted this past weekend was UNC's win over NC State. UNC is better than most people think. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, looked horrible in their loss at Florida State. Give me Carolina on the road.
Pick: UNC 79, Virginia Tech 67

NC State at Boston College
As underrated as UNC is, NC State is just as overrated. However, Boston College is hardly playing up to the level that I expected them to at the beginning of the season. Their losses at Michigan State, Maryland and Georgia Tech are hardly anything to worry about. But they get a chance to prove themselves in their first ACC home game. Look for the Eagles to get this one.
Pick: Boston College 71, NC State 62

Wednesday
Wake Forest at Clemson
Barring a handful of missed Trent Strickland dunks, Wake should get the easy W at Littlejohn.
Pick: Wake Forest 81, Clemson 64

Florida State at Virginia
One of these teams is going to get their second ACC victory. That should, at least temporarily, put them ahead of Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State in terms of ACC standings. Welcome to the unbalanced ACC
Pick: FSU 65, Virginia 58