Maryland Basketball: Revenge Of The Nerds

#23/21 Maryland Terrapins (11-3, 1-1 ACC) at
#1/1 Duke Blue Devils (14-0, 2-0 ACC)
Cameron Arena – Durham, NC

Let’s see here. $30,000 a year in tuition? Check. A shabby tent to camp out in? Check. Blue fingerpaint? Big blue check mark. Caffeine pills? Check. Cheer sheet? I’ve got mine. This checklist could only mean one thing. It’s time for Maryland’s yearly visit to the foul depths of Durham to take on the overrated Dookies.

Shhhhhhhh…very quietly, the Maryland Terrapins have racked up a three game winning streak against the Blow Devils. That includes a win at Comcast Center, a win on a neutral court in the ACC championship and another win at Cameron Arena (I refuse to call it Cameron Indoor Stadium. First off, it’s not a stadium. Secondly, the game obviously takes place indoors. You don’t need to include that in the arena name. I’m sure most opponents wouldn’t show up to the outdoor rec-center blacktops if the word “indoor” wasn’t inserted. It's just so stupid.).

On top of the three game winning streak, Maryland has won five of the last eight against Duke, and they have split the last fourteen meetings. Still think Duke owns Maryland? Still think the Terps got lucky a couple of times? If anything, it has been Duke getting fortunate wins over Maryland the past 6 years. The refs helped them to two wins in 2001 (The 54 second game and Final Four game, which included two of my favorite pro-Duke calls of all-time. The first being Evil Knevil Williams tripping Steve Blake at half court, only to have a charging foul called on Blake. The second was Lonny Baxter’s clean block on Scrotum-head Shane, only to be whistled for his fifth foul). The Dookies also survived a last second miss by Saint Juan in the ACC Championship game that year. And in 2004, Maryland lost at home to Duke when Chris McCray used the unconventional strategy to leave J(ust) J(umpers) Redick wide open for the entire second half. Duke barely scratched out a win anyway. Maryland’s wins the past six years have been well earned. No flukes. When they beat the Dookies, they really beat them. Almost as well as Shelden Williams beats underage girls before he rapes them. No still means no, buddy.

I’m sure the caffeinated nerds that pack Cameron are well aware of Maryland’s recent dominance in the series. So the most unattractive fans this side of New York City will cram the student section, armed with a full supply of cheer sheets. Actually, since most of the students come from the New York-New Jersey armpit, it is the same bandwagon fan base that roots for the Yankees. But they jump up and down in unison. And they have cheer sheets and know how to use 'em. Look out! Hopefully this year, they make sure they have the right ones and aren’t duped by Maryland students into chanting anti-Dook jingles.

And just what does Gary’s bunch think of the Cameron “home court advantage”. YAWWWWWWWNNNN. They don’t care. It doesn’t affect them. Everybody on the team, except for David “Tweeder” Neal, has won in this building. It’s just another gym to play basketball in to the Terps. In fact, Gary’s teams play better on the road in hostile buildings than they do on the road in morgue-like atmospheres (see 1/07/06, at Miami).

But Mark, everyone says that Duke is really really good this season. They may be the best team to ever step on the parquet floors. Haha, not so fast. This version of the Dookies is basically the same team that collapsed in the NCAA tournament last season (which is still further than Maryland got). In fact, I’d say last year’s team was better. The 2005 Dookies at least had Daniel Ewing to play point when they needed him. The 2006 Dookies are still a two-man team. They still have no depth. They still have no inside presence when the Rapist is on the bench. They still get out rebounded by wide margins. And Ratface plays a bunch of freshmen. And this is supposed to be the best team in America? Hardly.

Let’s take a closer look at the 2006 Floor-Slappers. Obviously, everyone knows about Bacne and the Rapist. We’ll get to them in a moment. But let’s take a peak at the other returning and some of the new geeks that Ratface puts on the floor this season. We have Lee “requisite Duke white-stiff” Melchionni. His numbers are exactly the same as they were last season. Exactly the same, except he’s shooting slightly worse from the field. He’s had three decent games all season. He played well at Wake (more on that a bit later) and he played well against Valparaiso and Davidson. That’s it. That’s the list. He had a solid 0-point/16-minute effort against Memphis, a 3-point/19 minute game against Texas, and a superb 5-point/24-minute performance against Virginia Tech. So unless the Terps triple-team Redick, White Stiff won’t be doing much tonight.

Next up is Sean Dockery. Dockery, one of the few Devils I can stand, is a capable scorer if he’s needed, and can handle the ball adequately. But like Nik Caner-Medley and White Stiff, he’s nowhere to be found in big games. So those stats of his are a bit inflated. He had 8 points against both Memphis and Wake, 7 points against Texas and, my favorite performance, 2 points, 3 assists and 2 turnovers against Indiana.

The main point guard in K’s offense is Greg Paulus (WARNING: freshman guard starting in the ACC). Like any typical high-recruited freshman, Paulus has his bad games and his good ones. The bad games tend to come a bit more frequently for Little Redick. Sure the five assists a game look nice. But like Dockery, his stats are inflated by a couple of great games. Like the 15 assist performance against lousy Valpo. Or the seven assist games against St. Johns and Bucknell. The overall stats tend to outshine the crummy performances against good teams. Like his five-point, four turnover game against Memphis. Or his five-turnover game against Indiana. Or his “White Stiff-esque” 0-point, 25-minute performance against Drexel. Or his 2-point, 2 assist, 5 turnover and 5 fouls effort against Penn. Or his 3 assist, 6 turnover game against Wake. I could continue, but I think my point is made. Live with a freshman point guard, die with a freshman point guard.

Along with Rapist in the frontcourt there is Josh McRoberts. What’s this? A bonus white-stiff! Oh Ratface, you make it too easy for me. From the five or six Dook games I’ve watched this season, Big White Stiff is just a foul waiting to happen. He is slow getting up and down the court. He has poor footwork under the basket. He gets in horrible position defensively and equally bad position trying to box out for boards. This guy is a slightly taller version of Shavlik Randolph. The only thing that McRandolph does well is commit fouls so the Rapist doesn’t have to. Let’s not waste any more time on him.

One of K’s bench players is Martynas Pocius. That’s right. Ratface was so tired of getting beat by Wake Forest’s and NC State’s European players, he went out and got one of his own. How cute. Euro Trash plays 10 minutes a game and is basically a non-factor for the Devils. Like any Eastern European player, he can shoot if left open. But if you thought Redick had problems creating his own shot, just wait until you see this guy. He will literally stand in the same spot at the top of the perimeter, with his hands out in front of his body begging for the ball, for an entire possession. Does K teach how to move without the ball?

The only other player worth mentioning is DeMarcus Nelson. Nelson can be dangerous if healthy. The only problem is that Nelson is never 100%. I’m sure that Nelson’s healthy-again, injured-again status is fun to follow down in Durham. I’m sure the Duke coeds have made plenty of bets regarding his playing status (“If he plays, I win and I get your slide ruler!”). Supposedly, he’ll play tonight. He looked bad and gimpy against Wake, so don’t look for many minutes out of him.

Ok, now to the terrible twosome. I don’t think that I need to hype Jumpers and the Rapist anymore than they have been. To consider either one of these players as the best in the country is an absolute joke. Adam Morrison and Craig Smith seem to be much better. Neither Redick nor Williams are complete players. Redick is still scared to go inside and Gaylord commits too many fouls. And to think that this team is unstoppable because they have two decent players is ridiculous. Maryland’s faced better Duke teams before and won. They beat, although not often, the Scrotum Head-Motorcycle Stunt Driver-Boozer combination a few years ago. This Redick-Williams team isn’t even in the same class.

But on the other hand, what exactly has Maryland done this year to warrant me picking them to win this game? The answer is nothing. They haven’t played a solid 40 minutes against a half-decent team the entire season. On top of this, Gary had a 30-minute closed door meeting with his team following the ugly loss to Miami. Usually when Gary does something like that it means there will be lineup changes. But Gary hasn’t let on to the media and no one has any clue what those would be (I’m guessing less Travis Garrison and more three guard sets). And while Duke may not be the best team in the country, they can certainly run circles around you if you come out flat or uninspired or unorganized for any length of time. But that's why I’m picking Maryland tonight. Because there is no logical reason to pick the Terps, it is all the more reason to pick the Terps.

Before the Duke-Maryland game last year at Comcast, I got the chance to interview Dick Vitale and the chance to talk with Michael Wilbon. Both said, off the record at the time, that Gary knows how to beat Ratface (although neither of them actually called him Ratface, but I digress). Both told me he’s figured it out. And Wilbon seemed to think that Bacne and company are actually a bit intimidated by Maryland. Wilbon believes that Bacne has a tendency to get tight (aka: choke) in big games. I wouldn’t necessarily agree completely with Wilbon (just watch Redick’s game against Texas), but Just Jumpers does have a bad track record in the NCAA’s and against both UNC and Maryland. And in the last three games that Maryland won against Duke, no one gave them a chance. So why not go with them again.

The strategy to beating Duke is both simple and tough to accomplish at the same time. I had the whole thing drawn out a couple of days ago and I was going to seem like a genius. But then Digger Phelps stole my thunder. On ESPN on Monday night, Phelps articulated how to stop Redick from having a good night. And it’s something that I’ve been saying for the past three years. You wear Redick out when he plays defense. The Terps have two big advantages over Duke. They rebound a lot better. And as always, they have superior depth. They must use this depth to beat Redick. He is going to play almost every minute in the first half. Whoever Redick is guarding, most likely McCray, must run all over the place. Maryland has always been a better conditioned team than Duke (mostly because of the depth Gary stockpiles). Redick, like all jump shooters, uses his legs as the power to drive his 3-point shots. If you tire him out in the first half, he is going to be spent in the second half. The shots will not fall. We’ve seen this year after year in the NCAA tournament. Redick plays too much during the regular season, and by the time he gets into March, he is exhausted. This isn’t his fault; it’s bad coaching by Ratface. He shot 15% or so worse from the field during the tournament than he did during the regular season. This is because his legs are over worked. So, when he plays defense, make him work hard. Really hard. Make him run early and often. And when Duke has the ball, make him really earn his shot. Make him run around some more. Make him fight off screens. Knock him down a little bit. Bump him, elbow him, out-muscle him. He is soft and doesn’t respond well in physical games. By the second half, he’ll be begging to come off the court. This isn’t easy to accomplish, but that is how you stop Bacne.

The other option is to let Bacne get his points, and focus on the rest of the Dookies. Wake ignored this strategy and failed. They decided to double, and triple team Redick. This allowed White Stiff to have his best game of the season. He was uncovered most of the game because Wake swarmed around Redick. And Jumpers still beat them. Here is what Maryland ought to do. Do not put McCray on Redick. Stick Strawberry on Redick if Strawberry is healthy (and there are rumors that he is hurt again). Redick will get his points on Straw, but at least D.J. will make him earn it. And have McCray do what I just said when the Terps have the ball. Run all over the court and tire Redick out. At the same time, Maryland needs to attack the inside early and often. Get Williams in foul trouble…like always. Maryland needs to use its four-man rotation in the front court to their advantage. The Terps need to keep feeding the ball inside, and need to keep backing down and posting up on the Rapist (I know how that reads, but it wasn’t meant to sound dirty). This means that Travis Garrison has to do something. He actually has to play like a forward. And it also means that James Gist must steer clear of foul trouble. Duke may go into halftime with the lead, but if Maryland can wear out Redick, and get three fouls on Williams, they’ll have the Dookies right where they want ‘em.

In the second frame, Williams will spend a lot of time on the bench. This will allow Maryland to focus a bit more on Redick, and will force Duke to win with their role players. I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the game come down to Dockery, White Stiff and Duke’s freshmen against Maryland’s seasoned 10-man rotation.

So while Duke is, and should be, the favorite going into tonight’s game, I’m going to go with Maryland anyway. I’ve been saying all season that Maryland has had a tendency over the past 15 years to play down to its opponent’s level. Well, the reverse of that is they also play up to their opponent’s level. According to the experts, Gary knows how to beat Ratface. Maryland is in desperate need for some redemption after that ugly performance against Miami. Like always, no one is giving Maryland a chance. But they seem to find a way to beat the Dookies anyway. Plus, I can’t pick Duke over the Terps. How could I live with myself? If the Terps go down, I’m going down with them.

As for Duke’s famed home-court advantage? Please, the crowd is more interested in getting their cheers right than they are in actually watching the basketball game. So spare me more gushing over this cheer sheet needing, bandwagon jumping, New Jersey infested, nerds-a-plenty fan base. If Maryland loses, it won’t be because of them.

Maryland 84
Duke 82

Elsewhere in the ACC...

As I said yesterday, I was going to combine the short Tuesday post into today's preview. And for all of you that thought I would cheat, I guess this shows you. Despite incorrectly picking Boston College last night (what the hell is wrong with the Eagles?), I left that pick in anyway. After a 4-0 start, I had an ugly 2-4 weekend in conference. So the record falls to 6-4 overall. I'm trying to pick it up a bit this week, but it doesn't look good.

Tuesday
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
The only upset I correctly predicted this past weekend was UNC's win over NC State. UNC is better than most people think. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, looked horrible in their loss at Florida State. Give me Carolina on the road.
Pick: UNC 79, Virginia Tech 67

NC State at Boston College
As underrated as UNC is, NC State is just as overrated. However, Boston College is hardly playing up to the level that I expected them to at the beginning of the season. Their losses at Michigan State, Maryland and Georgia Tech are hardly anything to worry about. But they get a chance to prove themselves in their first ACC home game. Look for the Eagles to get this one.
Pick: Boston College 71, NC State 62

Wednesday
Wake Forest at Clemson
Barring a handful of missed Trent Strickland dunks, Wake should get the easy W at Littlejohn.
Pick: Wake Forest 81, Clemson 64

Florida State at Virginia
One of these teams is going to get their second ACC victory. That should, at least temporarily, put them ahead of Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State in terms of ACC standings. Welcome to the unbalanced ACC
Pick: FSU 65, Virginia 58