NFL Playoffs: My Picks Are Leaking, Call A Plummer

Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Indianapolis Colts early exit, is the loss that New England suffered in Denver. I would like to thank Mike Shanahan and his staff for putting an end to this media darling’s season. It couldn’t have come at a better time. If the Pats had won, they would get another home game and almost an automatic ticket into the Super Bowl. So this post is dedicated to you, Mike.

Without New England, I can now enjoy the rest of the playoffs without being forced to root against a team. And what’s even better is I don’t have to hear about this Sports Guy and his incompetent babble on all things Boston. Here is a guy with no real discernable talent, who subjects the nation to his moaning and bitching about Boston sports teams for a living. Occasionally, he’ll write something clever. Normally, it’s just the usual Boston superiority/inferiority junk. But it’s getting worse now. People are actually starting to quote this bum. For example, I’m watching the Steelers-Colts game this weekend (more on that shortly). After a bad series by Peyton Manning, he walks of the field and removes his helmet. My friend says something to the effect of “there’s the Peyton Manning Face.” I look at him like he’s retarded. “Would you care to elaborate,” I ask him. “Don’t you read Sports Guy,” he shoots back. “No, no I don’t,” I say with a disgusted look on my face. I guess you could call it the Mark the Predictor face. So I have to go back onto ESPN.com to figure out what my friend is talking about. Just as I figured, it was something that wasn’t worth my time. Here’s the bottom line. This Sports Guy is one of the luckiest people on the planet. If the Boston teams were mediocre, would anybody care about what he is writing? If he tried to write these columns in the early 90’s, when the Patriots were horrible and the Red Sox were a .500 team, no one would read them and he’d be out on the street. By a stroke of luck, he happens to be from a city whose teams have done somewhat well recently. And he has ridden the success of the city’s teams to a payday (I would assume a rather large one at that). This is just another case that proves having luck is better than having talent.

Which brings me to another point. Are the Patriots of the past four years a dynasty? I don’t think so. The Patriots from 2001-04 are very comparable to the Dolphins from 1971-74. The Dolphins made the playoffs all four seasons, made the Super Bowl three times, won two championships and even had a perfect season. The Patriots, while winning one more Super Bowl than those Dolphins teams, never had a perfect season, missed the playoffs in 2002, and had an overall worse record than the Dolphins did during those four seasons. I don’t think anyone considers the 71-74 Dolphins a dynasty. So why consider New England one? A dynasty, by definition, is a powerful group that maintains its position for a considerable period of time. Is four years a considerable period of time? Not at all (especially considering that the Patriots were only good for three of those four seasons). The Celtics and UCLA Bruins were dynasties. The 1990 Chicago Bulls were a dynasty. In football, the 1960’s Packers, 1970’s Steelers and the 1980’s 49ers were dynasties. Those teams were dominant for nearly 10 years or longer. Heck, the Bears teams of the 30’s and 40’s and the Redskins between 1983-1992 had much longer periods of sustained success with just as many, if not more, championships. So if you aren’t ready to rank those Redskins and Dolphins teams ahead of the 01-04 Patriots, than don’t let me hear about this dynasty foolishness anymore.

So no Indianapolis, no New England and no New York Giants. What is the NFL going to do? This must be the worst nightmare for the league. They have four under-publicized teams that aren’t very sexy to watch. Only the Panthers play a brand of football that is remotely entertaining. And they have no fan base. With the exception of Denver, the other three teams play in relatively small markets. The league must be panicking at the moment as they try and figure out what to do with these four castoffs.

I recognize the accomplishments of these teams, and I’m looking forward to what is shaping up to be the most competitive conference championship weekend in a long time. The teams that are playing the best football are the two teams that will be on the road for the third straight week. Pittsburgh and Carolina, after what could be considered disappointing regular seasons, have fought tooth and nail to get to this point. But how many times can a team pull out road victories in the playoffs? Recent trends show that at least one, if not both of these road warriors, has an outstanding chance to win on Sunday. Since 1997, home teams are 7-9 in conference championship. Since the playoffs expanded to three rounds of conference play before the Super Bowl, the home teams have the worst record in the conference championship round. So both historic and recent play tells me that one of the road teams is going to win this weekend. My predictions may surprise you however. Last week I was 2-1 again, making me 169-82 on the season. I’m about to give two teams their Super Bowl passes and two teams their walking papers. Why don’t you read on.


Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)(-3)
3:00 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Don’t think I haven’t noticed that my two incorrect playoff predictions have been because of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I have been dead on the other six games, even saying to a couple of friends that Redskins would beat Tampa 17-10 before the kickoff. But the Steelers have single-handedly ruined my perfect postseason. But how was I to know that Carson Palmer would get hurt two snaps into the game and that evil Peyton Manning would show up last weekend?

So you can imagine my surprise when I wandered down to Cornerstone with some friends to watch the Steelers-Colts game last Sunday. There we were, in the middle of all the bandwagon Steeler fans that waited three months into the season to come out and support their team. The motley bunch even included one dude that rolled to the bar in a Steelers bathrobe, complete with a huge Steelers belt buckle and custom Steelers tennis shoes. Since I really didn’t care who won, I decided I’d root for the Colts, just to be obnoxious. The Steelers came out like gangbusters. It appeared that the Colts refused to cover Heath Miller. It also looked like the Colts defense had forgotten how to rush the quarterback.

But even down 21-3 at one point, everyone knew, even the Steelers fans, that Manning would start to get going. And right on cue, the lead was cut to 11. Then came the Troy Polamalu interception that wasn’t. While the four people I was with were sure that the interception would be upheld, I knew better. Although it did appear to be a clean pick, I knew that the referees, under word from the NFL I’m sure, would do everything they could to keep the Colts in the game. The league had already lost New England the night before. It couldn’t afford to lose the Colts on the same weekend. I said it was going to be overturned. Sure enough, after what seemed like an eternity to review the play, the ball was given back to the Colts. Manning then took drove the remaining 50 yards in four plays. Game on, 21-18. (By the way, I know that what Joey Porter said is similar to what I just wrote. But he needs to shutup. He really does. I want him laid out this week. Denver is famous for their illegal crackback blocks. I want this done to Porter. And I'm not one of those fans that roots for injuries. But I want Porter's mouth and his legs taken out. Finish him.)

So Pittsburgh predictably punted the ball right back to the Colts to give them a chance for the win. But then, evil Manning showed up. Despite working with very little time, Manning continued to be his typical OCD-self at the line of scrimmage. And all his screaming and scrambling at the line of scrimmage resulted in four horrible plays and a turnover on downs at his own two-yard line. Even Pittsburgh’s lethargic offense couldn’t screw this up, right?

But then Jerome Bettis nearly became the new Earnest Byner (who by the way, played a huge roll with the 1991-92 Redskins Super Bowl winning team) and coughed the ball up. Cornerback Stabby McStabberson picked the ball up and returned it to the Colts 40. So Bettis was made to wait on the sideline, helpless as he would watch his defense give up the game-winning touchdown.

Needless to say, the Steelers fans were beside themselves. I was really enjoying it. One of the worst coaches in the postseason was about to have his team choke again. But then a funny thing happened. Manning seemed to forget that all Indianapolis needed was a field goal. On second and two and third and two, Manning decided to go deep towards the endzone instead of picking up easy first downs. Suddenly, the Colts had to try a 46-yard field goal just to send the game to overtime. Everyone knows what happened next. The Irish kicker missed badly, Bettis started to cry, Bill Cowher was shocked that his team actually won a close playoff game, and the entire bar went into a frenzy. Well, almost the entire bar. My table shrugged and waited for the management to turn the televisions to the Panthers-Bears game.

Anyway, I’ve had my reasons to pick against the Steelers the last couple of weeks. And I have my reasons again. Pittsburgh has faced two of the worst playoff defensive backfields in the league in the first two rounds. But with Champ, John Lynch and company, Denver has become a turnover-forcing machine down the stretch in the regular season. Their linebacking core is pretty good too. If they can fool Tom Brady into making the mistakes he did last week, then they should be able to frustrate Big Ben even more. And I don’t see the Steelers running over Denver like they did against Indy. Which means, for the first time this postseason, Roethlisberger will be put into a position where he has to make big plays late in a ballgame. This game will be close in the fourth and I have a feeling that Ben, not the running game, will have to excel if Pittsburgh is going to win.

While Jake Plummer isn’t Joe Montana, the one thing he has always been good at is playing well in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh won’t be able to “blitz to a spot” like they did last week against Manning. Plummer is mobile, and has the talent to buy himself more time if necessary. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled in the past against mobile quarterbacks. Their defense tends to be too aggressive and when the quarterback is able to get outside the pocket, the secondary (which, with exception of Polamalu, is the Steelers weakness) can’t seem to hang with receivers. Look for veteran Rod Smith to exploit this matchup with Plummer. Plummer also has Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell at his disposal for screen passes. Expect a few big plays off dump passes to the running backs when Pittsburgh blitzes. Plus, Denver has a pretty good running game as well. Their offense has been clicking on all cylinders lately. The Broncos have scored 22 points or more in 11 of the last 12 weeks. They have been held to under 20 points only once this year (in a 12-10 win over Baltimore in week 14).

I think you are going to see a tired Pittsburgh team this weekend. Winning on the road takes a lot out of you. Also, Denver has the most unique home field advantage in the NFL because of the altitude (I didn't believe in the mile-high hype until I went to Denver. Not only is it hard to breath, it is easy to become dehydrated. I was broadcasting the Maryland NCAA tournament game and I became dehydrated. And all I was doing was sitting down. And I'm in good shape). Add in the fact that Denver has played one less game and has had one extra day to rest from their divisional round contest, I don’t see the Steelers winning on the road for a third straight time. Then again, I haven’t been right so far.
Pick: Broncos 23, Steelers 20



Carolina Panthers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)(-4)
6:30 p.m. Qwest Field
Eventually, a team is going to have to do something about Steve Smith. The Panthers are out of weapons other than number 89. You would have to assume that Mike Holmgren is going to go up to his defense and tell them that anyone else can beat us, except that Smith guy. Double team him. Triple team him if you have to. Whatever Seattle does, hopefully it won’t be a page out of the Bears defensive game plan. The Bears decided to single cover Smith with the average Charles Tillman. And this Bears defense was supposed to be all mighty? Then explain to me why the Bears left Tillman on Smith after he burned the Bears on long passes…twice. Not to mention all the underneath routes that Tillman couldn’t cover. I’m going to assume that Seattle is going to put as many players as possible on Smith. It would make sense.

That’s why I’m going to go with Seattle and with both home teams this week. If you go back to my midseason prediction post, I had this game right on the money. Carolina at Seattle for the conference championship. However, I had Carolina winning. I’m going to change my mind on this game. Seattle’s offense is so good, they didn’t even need the league MVP to beat a talented Redskins defense. They get Shaun Alexander back this week, and the Panthers lost their featured running back. Everything is pointing towards Seattle.

If Holmgren and company watched any tape of the game last week, then their only priority in practice must be stopping Steve Smith. If you stop Smith, you stop the Panthers offense (and if they choose to play like the Bears defense, I can't be held responsible for this pick). And if the sorry, no account Bears offense can put up 21 points on Carolina’s defense, then Seattle should be able to do even better. Add in some key defensive injuries for the Panthers, and I think their run ends here.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 16