The Predictor Top 25: 1/23/06

As I’ve been saying, with the end of football season, it’s time to shift priorities to college basketball. So I guess that means I’ll have to come up with my own Top 25 from time to time. One of my pet peeves is ranking a team ahead of a second team despite the second team have a victory over the team ranked ahead of it. Especially if both teams have nearly identical records. You’ll see that I’ve put Texas over both Memphis and Villanova. While I still think the Longhorns will fade in March, and that both Memphis and Nova are better, Texas does have head-to-head wins over both of them. So reason dictates that they should be placed ahead of those two programs for now. And while this rule isn’t absolute, I try to follow it 90% of the time. Here is the inaugural poll for 2006.

1. Connecticut (16-1). Even when Duke was undefeated but escaping with close wins, UConn was my number one team. Now the records justify putting them in this position.
2. Duke (17-1). Tempted to put Illinois or Memphis ahead of the Dukies. With the exception of their blowout win over Texas, Duke has struggled against top competition. And let’s face it; the ACC is a weak conference this season.
3. Illinois (17-2). The Illini have lost only at Indiana and at Iowa. They’ve beaten Michigan State, UNC, Oregon, G’town, Missouri, Rutgers and Xavier. This is a really good team that everyone, including myself, overlooked.
4. Texas (16-2). They’ve seemed to recover from the beating they took at the Meadowlands. Have advantage over Memphis because of their win over the Tigers. Big game at Oklahoma coming up this weekend.
5. Memphis (16-2). Like Duke, Memphis is going to be penalized at times for playing in a weaker conference. Unlike Duke, Memphis won’t have the 24 hour media attention to remind the nation how good they really are.
6. Villanova (13-2). Live by the three, die by the three. ‘Nova is living large right now. But in March, one bad shooting night means their season will be over.
7. Washington (16-2). The home loss to Washington State a few weeks ago should raise some eyebrows. However, Huskies have wins over Gonzaga, UCLA and New Mexico
8. Florida (17-1). Anyone else have the feeling that their season is about to go South in a hurry? Me too. Just waiting for the record to fall apart so I can drop them out of the Top 10.
9. Gonzaga (15-3). Sure the wins over Maryland and Michigan State look nice. And the only losses have been to UConn, Memphis and Washington. But the Zags have struggled in three conference games, including a last second, one-point win over San Diego last week. And the West Coast Conference is worse than usual this season.
10. Michigan State (15-4). For the past two weeks, they’ve looked like the best team in America. Can’t ignore the four losses though.
11. Indiana (12-3). They’re probably better than MSU, but they lost by 14 in East Lansing already. I would vote Marco Killingsworth to the All-American team right now.
12. West Virginia (14-3). Right now, this is the only Big East team other than UConn that should be taken seriously. While Mike Gansey and Kevin Pittsnogle get all the attention, Joe Herber is the glue for WVU.
13. N.C. State (15-3). Cedric Simmons looked terrific against Duke. All the Pack have to do now is avoid collapsing in the second half of the ACC season.
14. Ohio State (14-2). I really, really like the Buckeyes this season. They have an Elite Eight look to them right now. Thad Matta is one of the best young coaches in the country.
15. George Washington (14-1). Does anyone know what to make of this team yet? I could have put them anywhere from 10 to 20.
16. Pittsburgh (15-1). No one actually takes this team seriously, do they? Pittsburgh is famous for their fast starts with easy schedules, only to fall apart in February and March.
17. UCLA (15-4). Fought back against WVU, but shouldn’t have been down so much on their own court against an opponent that had to travel 3,000 miles. Still, they are going to bulk up against a struggling Pac-10.
18. Georgetown (12-4). What’s not to like? They don’t have a bad loss yet. And they finally added the quality win they’ve been looking for. I smell a darkhorse.
19. Maryland (13-4). The Terps don’t have any bad losses, but they don’t have any great wins either. And what are they going to do without Chris McCray?
20. Northern Iowa (17-3). Only one bad loss to speak of (at Bradley), but it’s balanced by two solid wins over Iowa and LSU. This is the best Mid-major not named Gonzaga in the country.
21. Boston College (14-4). Their win at Miami saved the Eagles from being dropped out of the rankings. They must pick up their play in conference. Craig Smith continues to impress me.
22. Tennessee (12-3). I’m not that impressed with their home win against Florida. They’re supposed to win conference home games. But their overall record and exciting brand of transition basketball puts them in the Top 25.
23. Colorado (13-3). The only losses for the Buffaloes have come against Kansas, at Texas and at rival Colorado State. They’ve also won at Missouri and at Oklahoma State. Good enough for me to put them in.
24. Oklahoma (11-4). I have a feeling that this team is about to start reeling off some wins, beginning this week with an upset over Texas.
25. Michigan (13-3). They are in for this week. But they must play Michigan State and Wisconsin in the next five days. We’ll see how that works out.


Next Five In: Xavier, LSU, Vanderbilt, UAB and Louisville

Where is…?
Wisconsin: Sorry, you lose to North Dakota State at home, you automatically get removed from the Top 25. For at least two weeks. Go sit in the corner.
North Carolina: Dude, they lost to Virginia and beat FSU by one. Not looking good.
Syracuse: Didn’t even look competitive against Villanova the other night. Gerry McNamara can’t carry the team by himself.