Redskins at Bucs, Wildcard Weekend: So Nice, We're Playing It Twice

Washington Redskins (10-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
4:30 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Wildcard Weekend Playoff Game
On January 7th, 2004, Joe Gibbs returned to the Redskins. Two years to the day, Joe Gibbs will return the Redskins to their proper place in the playoffs. It only took two years. All those who said the game passed him by can shove it.

After a five game winning streak to force their way into the NFL spotlight, the Redskins must pack up their cruise ship (preferably one not captained by Fred Smoot) and set sail to Tampa. Hopefully the only pirates they encounter will be at the stadium and not on the high seas (seriously, that story doesn’t get old).

For the three of you that don’t remember, this will be the second meeting between the two teams this year at the Pirate Ship. This playoff game will be the remix version. The first meeting produced the best football game of the regular season. Unfortunately for the Redskins, it also produced a 36-35 loss. And what a controversial loss it was. Did Mike Alstott get in on the two point conversion, or didn’t he? The answer you get depends on who you ask. And if you think that the questionable two-point conversion isn’t a big deal, let me prove to you otherwise.

In order for me to make my point, we are going to have to take a journey into the land of “what ifs”. Usually, I don’t like doing this. I typically find it fruitless to argue about something that didn’t happen. But hang with me. Let’s assume that the refs call Alstott short on the conversion, and the Redskins win 35-34. The Redskins record, if everything else during the season stayed the same, would have been 11-5. The Bucs would have been 10-6 (Which brings up another interesting argument. Would the Bucs have been 10-6 if they lost that game? They probably would have fallen apart after that loss. Conversely, the Redskins probably wouldn’t have gone on and lost to Oakland the following week either. But I digress.). The 11-5 Redskins would no longer be the sixth seed. In fact, they would have been the two seed. The Skins would have been tied with Carolina (who, because Tampa fell to 10-6, would have won the NFC South), New York and Chicago. The Redskins would have owned the tiebreaker with New York and Carolina based on conference record (which would have been 11-1), and they beat Chicago in the first week of the season to get that tiebreaker as well. So the Bears would have hosted the Bucs (as the three vs. six game) and the Panthers would have hosted the Giants instead of traveling to the Meadowlands (the Panthers become the fourth seed because, again, they would have won their division and New York wouldn’t have). The Redskins would be sitting on their butts this weekend with the bye week. So if you think one play from November doesn’t mean a whole lot, you are sorely mistaken.

That play literally cost the Redskins a bye week, a home playoff game and a realistic shot at a Super Bowl appearance. But Skins fans can’t complain too much. That play almost cost Washington their season. The loss, which happened because the Redskins couldn’t stop the Bucs offense in the second half, started the three game losing streak. The Redskins recovered just in time to save their season and, at the very least, make a rare playoff appearance.

If you want my personal take on the Alstott play, here it is. I thought it was inconclusive. From half the camera angles, it looked like Alstott got in. From the other half, it looked like he didn’t. But the call was he got in, and there was no way the refs could overturn it. It is what it is. The fact of the matter is the Redskins shouldn’t have let the game come down to one play. They shouldn’t have let Tampa’s receivers run wild all game. They shouldn’t have been offside on the extra point attempt that led to Jon Gruden going for two. And they still had a chance, with 58 seconds and two timeouts, to get into field goal range to take the lead back. But they didn’t.

So the Redskins, and rightly so, will be visiting the lovely Tampa-St. Petersburg area instead of having a week off. Waiting for them is basically the same Tampa team that they saw in November. With one exception. This Buccaneer squad now has confidence.

Before the first meeting, Tampa was in a dire situation. Brian Griese had just gone down for the year, and Chris Simms was thrust into the starting role. And it didn’t look good for Simms. Not only had Chris bombed at the University of Texas, but he looked horrible as the Bucs lost to the 49ers. Tampa was on the verge of collapse. Funny what one great quarter of football will do for a team.

Simms went nuts in the fourth quarter. You could see Gibbs and Joe Bugel standing on the sidelines having Vietnam-like flashbacks to the days when Chris’ father, Phil Simms, torched the Redskins game after game. That look on their faces read “Oh no, not another Simms. We’ve already been through this before.”

But there were two main reasons why Chris Simms went from a near benching after the 49ers loss, to looking like his father’s second coming the next week. The first reason was the injury to Cornelius Griffin. The second reason was the injury to Sean Taylor. Without Griffin, the Redskins established no pass rush on Simms. He had all day to throw. Normally, that wouldn’t be a problem. But Simms was throwing to secondary that didn’t have its best playmaker. The combination of the two injuries doomed the Redskins. The defense couldn’t rush Simms, and they couldn’t stop his throws.

Griffin’s injury almost cost the Redskins a trip to the postseason. He returned to action in the game against St. Louis. His return just happened to coincide with the Redskins five game win streak. It also coincided with the defensive turnaround. Before the Rams game, the Redskins were –11 in turnovers. During their win streak, and Griffin’s return, they were +12. For the past month, the Redskins have forced, on average, four turnovers a game. They have also recorded multiple sacks, including seven against Dallas alone, in every game during the run. So the Bucs offense will be facing a much better Redskins defense this time around.


Clinton Portis and Carnell Williams must play big roles on Saturday.

Now, without further ado, it is time to analyze this game that sits in front of us instead of the game that was played two months ago. Here are some keys for each team.

For the Redskins:
1. Establish the run. In the last two meetings against Tampa Bay, Clinton Portis has had over 140 yards. His 64-yard run two years ago, and his 31-yard run in the meeting this season, are the two longest runs from scrimmage allowed by Tampa the past two seasons. Whatever, it is the Redskins are doing against Tampa on the ground, it’s working. Both of those runs were the result of cut back runs by Portis. The 64-yarder was an accident. The 31-yarder was a designed cut back. Tampa has one of the most aggressive defenses in the league. They do have a tendency to over pursue. During the last half of the season, Gibbs and Bugel have used more sweeps, counters and pull plays to the outside that lend themselves to cut back runs. Tampa’s defense is simply too fast for their own good. Keep the same game plan for the running game, and see if the Bucs can play under control
2. Get Cooley involved. Last week, Chris Cooley was missing in action. He did injure himself in the second quarter, but not seriously enough to have as poor of a game as he did. Tampa still plays their famous “Cover Two” defense. The weakness of the cover two are the soft spots not covered by the zone. Usually, these soft spots are found about 10 or so yards down the middle of the field. This is where Cooley operates. He may not be the best blocker. He may not run the best routes. He may not have the best hands. But few players in the NFL have the knack for finding soft spots in the defense like Cooley does. He could have a big game if the Redskins look for him.
3. Locate Ronde Barber. Even though Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks get all the accolades, the most dangerous player on the Bucs defense is Barber. He is a terrific corner. He can go man-to-man with any receiver in the league. He also is great in run defense as well. But, unlike most corners, he blitzes often. And he is very good at it. He is one of the few players in NFL history to have more than 20 sacks and 20 interceptions. If he gets himself in position to make a play, he doesn’t screw it up. The Redskins must account for him on every play.
4. No deep passes. Do not let Simms and company beat you deep. There were just way too many long throws completed against a Redskins defense which should be better than that. I know that Joey Galloway is having a career season, but still. A short, 34-year old receiver shouldn’t beat this defense. The fact that Taylor will be playing in this contest will certainly help the Redskins stop the deep ball.

For the Bucs:
1. Keep Simms upright. The Buccaneers have accomplished something really remarkable this season. They have an 11-5 record with a strictly average offensive line. This line will face a tougher test this time around with Griffin in the ball game. Also, Phillip Daniels, who was banged up but played anyway, is completely healthy and playing much better the last five weeks. The Bucs are already going to have a problem running the ball against the Redskins line, they can’t afford to fail in the air as well.
2. Don’t put the game in Simms’ left hand. Simms had the best game of his career the last time these two got together. But Simms has struggled otherwise this season, and the Bucs appear to be winning in spite of him. Plus, this will be his first playoff start. Compare that to a quarterback like Mark Brunell, and this is decisive advantage for the Redskins. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 31-28 since the merger. But it is safe to say, that most of those quarterbacks had very good offensive lines. Simms does not have that luxury. The odds of Simms burning the Redskins for a second time are slim. Gruden must run a balanced, if not run heavy, offense to win this game.
3. Get the crowd involved early. The Bucs may sell out their games, but they don’t have the best fans in the league. They don’t get very loud and you can imagine that most Bucs fans are pretty fair-weathered. There is also going to be a large contingent of Skins fans at the game. So if the Skins can hang with the Bucs early, they take away the home field advantage that Tampa earned throughout the regular season. If the Bucs start quickly, then the Skins might be hard pressed to come back.

As for what will actually happen. I won’t predict scores or winners of Redskins games. This game really scares me. I think that Tampa is the one team in the NFC the Redskins don’t match up particularly well against. If they can escape from this game, then I really like their chances to make it to Detroit. Winning on the road, in the playoffs, is a tough order. But if there is a playoff round where the road team has a good chance to win, it is the first round. Wildcard weekend tends to be unpredictable. Road teams win all the time. The further you go in the playoffs the less chance you have to win a road game. Plus, Joe Gibbs has a 16-5 playoff record. This means two things. One, he isn’t perfect. Two, he is extremely hard to beat in January. If the Redskins come out and establish Portis early, and rattle Simms, it is going to be difficult for the Bucs to get on track. Let me just say, that this season has been an incredible ride. If this is the last Redskins game of the season, so be it. Gibbs has already established that the Redskins are back. Regardless of what happens here, Gibbs has laid the groundwork for the next few seasons. This team is only going to get better. Anything else this year would just be a bonus.