2006 NCAA Tournament: Final Four

The streak is over. Six years in a row down the drain. I put my faith in a team that didn’t give a damn about winning or losing, as long as their draft status wasn’t affected. Plus, Connecticut couldn’t hit a crucial free throw. They’re lucky the refs bailed them out against Washington, or they wouldn’t have even been given the chance to lose to GMU.

I don’t feel that bad because at this point, almost everyone has lost their championship team. I guess there were a few people out there who jumped on the UCLA bandwagon. But unless you attend college in Gainesville, Fairfax or Baton Rouge, your bracket is pretty much done. In fact, despite having zero teams left, I lead my pool at work and I’ll win it as long as the Bruins don’t win the championship. Go Tigers!

Is it just me, or is this Final Four completely uninteresting? I guess it’s just me. A lot of friends tell me that they’re really excited about the George Mason story line. I just don’t find them all that interesting. For the third time in the past week, I was sent to GMU to cover practices and interview the team. And while the players seem like nice dudes, they play a dull style of basketball and are completely uninteresting in interviews. You would think players from a small time program would really love their 15 minutes in the spotlight. They seem completely indifferent.

I’m not one of those fans who won’t watch something unless big time teams or players are involved. In fact, I usually prefer to watch mid-major college basketball over power conference teams. But at least give me a mid-major program that’s worth watching. Not a team that has Tony Skinn on scholarship.

In other news, it appears the Duke men’s lacrosse team has taken a page from the Shelden Williams school of etiquette. In recent days, many around the team and university have come out in droves trying to convince people that nothing happened and that this woman was making a lot of her story up. That’s bull. The university president doesn’t suspend an entire team unless something actually happened. I’ll give Duke’s higher-ups props for not doing the typical “waiting until all the information comes out” routine. But the fact that they didn’t do the usual song and dance leads me to believe that this incident not only happened as it’s being reported, but is actually worse than is being reported. We shall see. Eventually, the NCAA is going to step in and look into the situation. And when the NCAA starts examining one program at a school, they usually take the opportunity to examine all the athletic programs at that school. It will be very interesting to see if the NCAA finally looks into the dirty men’s basketball program. I bet if they do even a modest search, they could find a handful of violations. The real question is if they find something, will they report it or will they let Ratface keep getting away with it? I know the NCAA wouldn’t want to lose that cash cow. Again, we shall see.

In sad news, it appears that Anna Benson has filed for free agency. I guess the chances of Anna participating in Topless Tuesday's at Camden Yards are just about zero. Just another reason not to go to the slum that is Baltimore.

By the way, in an announcement that shocked no one, including yours truly who predicted it, Scarlett Johansson was finally named sexiest woman of the year. I can call more than sports. Seriously though, who was going to challenge her?


I've managed to work Scarlett into two straight posts...I'm must be getting good at this.

By the way, dream hot tub: me, Johansson, Natalie Portman (with hair please) and Bill Raftery to call all the action (A little kiss by THEBIGFELLA!). Now before you get all grossed out and leave, what was I talking about…

Oh right, so the college basketball season winds down, and now we head into the dog days of summer with nothing to look forward to until the beginning of NFL training camp. Baseball? Meh, I don’t much care. I’m doing a couple of those fantasy baseball league things, so we’ll see how that turns out. As for the actual baseball, you don’t need to be a sports fan to predict how the MLB season will turn out. The Yankees will spend a lot of money, they will run away with the AL East, everyone will fawn over them, they will choke in the playoffs to a team with a much lower payroll, and four teams that no one cares about will be left to play in the league championship series. Hey, sounds like college basketball. Here are the picks.




#11 George Mason Patriots (27-7) vs.
#3 Florida Gators (31-6)
National Semifinal Game
RCA Dome – Indianapolis, IN

This is just a repulsive matchup. I don’t want to watch this game. I didn’t have Mason making past the first round and I didn’t have Donovan and the Greaseballs making it past the second. I can understand how people can root for GMU. But honestly, how could you cheer for Florida. This team is completely unlikable. Does anyone else want to see Tony Skinn take a swing at Joakim Noah? I wouldn’t mind. I guess we’ll have Noah flaming out in the NBA to look forward to.

The only thing that Florida has accomplished to my liking this season was eliminating Villanova. As I’d been saying since November, Villanova would be no match for a team with a decent inside game. Unfortunately for me, I thought that team would be Boston College. And the Eagles should have beaten Nova. Damn, I would have like to seen Craig Smith abuse Noah in the Elite 8. Not to be I guess.

I find the other game much more intriguing, so I’m going to spend more time on that. But I guess I have to make a pick here. I haven’t picked GMU once this tournament, and I haven’t picked Florida since their games against South Alabama. I don’t want to pick either of them to win this game. I like the refs chances more than these two teams. I guess I’d rather see the Patriots go to the championship than the Gators. So let’s go with them.
Pick: George Mason 71, Florida 68




#4 Louisiana State Tigers (27-8) vs.
#2 UCLA Bruins (28-6)
National Semifinal Game
RCA Dome – Indianapolis, IN

In the only entertaining matchup on Saturday, the Bayou Bengals will face off against Ben Howland’s Pittsburgh of the West. Was anyone else watching the Memphis-UCLA game reminded of the way Pittsburgh plays? You know, that horrible, tedious, mind-numbing brand of basketball where the first to 50-55 points wins. If I wanted to watch a defensive slugfest filled with offensive lapses that last for 10 minutes or more at a time, I would watch the Big East (which would be hard to do now seeing as they have no teams left).

Regardless of UCLA’s lackluster style of basketball, they’ve proven that they can exert their will over any team. By beating Gonzaga and Memphis, two of the highest scoring and most offensive efficient teams, the Bruins have demonstrated that their young defense can stop the best players in the country. So while I can’t stand watching Howland’s defensive system, I’m certainly not going to sit here and tell you that he can’t coach. The man knows how to get it done.

Now the Bruins have to play a team that is a little more like them. The Tigers don’t have an explosive offense. And unlike Memphis and Gonzaga, LSU plays something resembling defense.

The Tigers offense is very similar in structure to Gonzaga’s. At least underneath the hoop. UCLA did have a hard time stopping J.P. Batista in the Sweet 16 game. Batista scored 18 and had 9 boards. Now the Bruins must face Glen Davis, who has an even wider body and better rebounding technique than Batista. And while LSU may not have a player like Adam Morrison, they do have several top-notch role players that will not allow UCLA to give all their attention to Davis and Tyrus Thomas inside. Plus, the one position where UCLA is lacking is at center. Ryan Hollins had a great game against Memphis, but Memphis had no true center to stop the 7’0” Hollins. Against LSU, Hollins should be exposed as the weakness on UCLA’s defense.


You should root for LSU just to see Big Baby pull out the yellow-feathered boa again.

One would assume that Howland will cover up Hollins’ ineffectiveness with a 2-3 zone. This is what I would do. Make Darrel Mitchell and Garrett Temple prove they can beat you on the perimeter. Mitchell has certainly had nights, even in this tournament, where he hits everything and can take over the game. But he has had plenty of games this season where he couldn’t throw the ball into Lake Pontchartrain if he was standing on a broken levy. Look, if Howland is as stupid as Ratface and Rick Barnes, and lets Davis and Thomas dominate the game, then maybe he isn’t the coach that I think he is. That’s why I’m sure we will see plenty of zones from the Bruins.

I just don’t know how UCLA is going to score. LSU is sound defensive team, the likes of which the Bruins haven’t seen this year in the Pac-10 (other than games against even more offensively inept Washington State). Arron Afflalo and Jordan Farmar will face two tough perimeter defenders in Mitchell and Temple (for more information see Redick, Backne). Cedric Bozeman should be shut down by Tasmin Mitchell. And Thomas and Davis should control the inside against Hollins and Pops Mensah-Bonsu’s second cousin Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute. We all saw what happens to UCLA’s offense if Farmar and Afflalo struggle. Against Memphis, the entire Bruins offense revolved around second chance points provided by M-a-M and Hollins. If Afflalo and Farmar struggle again, the second chances won’t be there with physical freak Thomas boarding the misses.

I think LSU presents matchup problems at just about every position. If the Bruins were a deeper team, than maybe I could see their bench playing a role. But with all the inexperience and injuries, I don’t see UCLA having a decisive anywhere on the court.
Pick: Louisiana State 65, UCLA 58

2006 NCAA Tournament: DC/Minneapolis Regional Finals

Why do you still come to this website? It’s not to get insight into who will win games, because all of a sudden I can’t get anything right. 1-5 the last two nights combined? What’s the hell is going on? After watching Texas play uninspired basketball against LSU, I was forced to watch my other Final Four pick from that half of the bracket, Memphis, shoot worse then some of the rec league teams I’ve played for. If you told me that UCLA was only going to score 50 points against Memphis, I would have predicted no less than a 25 point win for the Tigers. If Calipari couldn’t get this team, in this weak region, facing an average UCLA squad, into the Final Four, I don’t know if he will every be able to repeat his success at UMass.

So in the course of 48 hours, my seemingly sexy picks of Gonzaga, Boston College, Texas and Memphis have stunk up the tournament like rotting carcasses on the Savannah. I’ll try to pick two more winners today, but if I were you, I’d put money on the two teams I’m not advancing to the Final Four.




#11 George Mason Patriots (26-7) vs.
#1 Connecticut Huskies (30-3)
Washington DC Regional Final
Verizon Center – Washington, DC

GMU beat #6 Michigan St., #3 UNC, #7 Wichita St.
UConn beat #16 Albany, #8 Kentucky, #5 Washington

The only reason I still have a Final Four team left, and my championship team left, is because UConn somehow found the “Duke refs” and paid them more than Ratface could. For the first time in this tournament, which has been real well officiated, the refs cost a team the game. Washington should have won despite having their entire starting lineup in foul trouble by the early part of the second half. Still, the East Coast Huskies hit all the big shots, as Rashad Anderson and Marcus Williams took the game over down the stretch.

Meanwhile, GMU has become a thorn in my side all tournament. I haven’t picked them to win a game yet, but here they are. And all props to the Patriots. They’ve been outmatched in every game they’ve played so far, but they find ways to win. Lamar Butler is a real talent. Jai Lewis and Will Thomas have been impressive inside. Tony Skinn hasn’t sucker-punched anybody yet. However, their fans (I didn’t even know they had fans until two weeks ago) are becoming obnoxious in the DC area. Yes, we know your team has done well this season. Just don’t talk trash like this type of season is going to be typical. This area still belongs to Maryland and Georgetown, so let’s just have everybody calm down. GMU is a great story, but they will end up being just another footnote in the national picture when this tournament is over. For all those who think that the Pats are going to become another Gonzaga are just wrong. Gonzaga is the exception rather than the norm. Otherwise, we’d have powerhouses at Butler, Kent State, Valparaiso and College of Charleston by now.

For the fourth straight game, Connecticut will have better matchups all over the court, and the Patriots are facing mismatches at almost every position. So why will this game not play out like the last three for UConn (getting challenges from lesser teams) and GMU (somehow beating better units)? I just figure that the Huskies are going to wake up and realize that they have five NBA players on their team and that it’s embarrassing to almost lose to schools that can’t even win their crummy conference tournaments.

Lewis and Thomas are going to be in for a rough game today. With Hilton Armstrong and Josh Boone inside, the Patriots inside tandem is facing a team with two good interior players for the first time all tournament. Against Michigan State, GMU only had to deal with Paul Davis (who doesn’t like playing inside anyway). Against UNC, it was only Tyler Hansbrough. And against Wichita State, they only had to handle Paul Miller. Now Mason is facing a height disadvantage at every position on the court.


Jai: You won't be facing teams from Wichita, Kansas anymore.

Thomas does have one thing going for him. He played Rudy Gay numerous times through their high school careers. And Thomas actually played better than Gay in most of those head-to-head matchups. Gay has been struggling in the tournament so far, and I don’t see any hope that he will snap out of his slump in this game. But as everyone knows, even though Gay is the most talented player on the Huskies, he is not their most important player, nor does the team have to have a great game from him to win.

So if Thomas is on Gay, then there is still the question of who will stop both Boone and Armstrong. Lewis can’t stop both of them at the same time. And while Gay and Boone get all the attention, it is Anderson, Williams and Denham Brown that are carrying the Huskies through the tournament so far. These are tall, physical and fast guards that Mason has not seen the likes of all season. It would be an incredible accomplishment, and maybe the best college basketball story since the '83 Cardiac Pack if GMU could somehow make the Final Four. Sorry Patriots, the clock has finally struck midnight.
Pick: Connecticut 83, George Mason 72




#3 Florida Gators (30-6) vs.
#1 Villanova Wildcats (28-4)
Minneapolis Regional Final
H.H.H. Metrodome – Minneapolis, MN

UF beat #14 S.Alabama, #11 UW-M, #7 Georgetown
Nova beat #16 Monmouth, #8 Arizona, #4 BC

As I write this, I have Dick Vitale screaming at me on ESPN News about Billy Donovan. He’s ranting against all those who thought Donovan couldn’t coach and didn’t know what he was doing in the NCAA tournament. Sorry Dickie, isn’t this the guy who has massively talented teams every season and usually can’t get them past the first weekend? Like last year, when he featured a team that had Matt Walsh and David Lee and couldn’t beat Villanova in the second round.

Here’s how I look at this game. Villanova is much better than they were last year, even without Curtis Sumpter (who got hurt in that Florida game) and the Gators, despite having more tournament success, are not as talented as they were last season. So how can Florida change the result of last year’s contest?


Corey Brewer is a nice player, but not talented enough to carry the Gators.

Florida, as they proved in their game against Georgetown, is a one-man team. Without a consistent presence from Joakim Noah, the Gators can’t score and their offense doesn’t run properly. When the Hoyas doubled-down on Noah and shutoff Florida’s interior passing lanes, the Gators offensive set fell apart. When Noah left the game, Florida looked lost on offense. And on defense, with Noah on the bench, the Gators can’t box out well on the boards. But as Roy Hibbert got fatigued, and the rest of the Hoya big men got in foul trouble, Noah took over the game and Georgetown no longer had second and third chance opportunities. Sure, Lee Humphrey is a nice player, and he has his fair share of good games. Same goes for Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green. But without a MVP-type game from Noah, the Gators are in trouble.

The problem for UF in this game won’t be Noah’s inside matchup with Will Sheridan and the other Nova forward reserves. It will be just getting the ball into Noah so he can score. Villanova’s four guard set allows them to be the quickest team left in the tournament. And no where is it more obvious as when they’re playing defense. They’ve got extremely quick hands, and passing lanes that are open one second are rapidly closed the next. And Florida had plenty of problems with their entry passes against the slower, more methodical Hoyas. It could get real ugly against the speedy Cats.


To cancel out the extreme ugliness of Joakim Noah, I had to include a picture of the smokin' Scarlett Johansson. You're welcome.

Noah, because of his height and size advantage over the smaller Wildcats is going to get his points. But the rest of Florida’s team is nothing special, and much more inexperienced than Villanova. Team Gimmick gets it done again with smoke and mirrors, setting up an exciting rubber match between Nova and UConn.
Pick: Villanova 73, Florida 66

2006 NCAA Tournament: Atlanta/Oakland Regional Finals

Any more of my picks going to choke away games? I would really like to know ahead of time if possible. Let me say, if Gonzaga and BC had won, like they should have, I would be the run away leader in my pool right now. As it stands, I’m going to need UConn to win out and Memphis to beat UCLA today to keep me near the top and within striking distance of that cash.

Enough about my pool. That’s not why you came (and if it is, why would care that much). I went 1-3 last night thanks to Boston College’s swoon and Wichita State deciding not to show up at all. Seriously, I haven’t seen that many missed three pointers since JJ Redick’s last game. HA! Hey Backne, enjoying the view from your couch? Anyone else wonder if Morrison and Backne had one of those late night Halo 2 sessions to ease their pain and cry themselves to sleep? Oh, that stuff is priceless. Anyway, my record is now 36-20 for the tournament, and Derek Raivio (See Derek. See Derek turn the ball over. Turnover, Derek, turnover.) and Al Skinner are solely to blame for this average record.

Just two games today, and it will be pretty short because I just talked about these four teams a couple of days ago.



#4 Louisiana State Tigers (26-8) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (30-6)
Atlanta Regional Final
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA

LSU beat #13 Iona, #12 Texas A&M, #1 Duke
Texas beat #15 Penn, #10 NC State, #6 WVU

So LSU has earned a spot right at the top of The Predictor’s list of favorite teams. I’m sure a lot of people will be rooting for the Bengals after their win over the disgusting program that continues to infect college basketball. Texas, on the other hand, ended the season of the massively overrated Fightin’ Hicks, allowing the ‘Queers to go home to their trailors early, burn their couches, get more tattoos and get married at a high school gymnasium to their high school sweetheart/aunt/cousin.

Duke, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, George Washington and Tennessee. Remember during the season when I said these five teams were being overrated by everyone, and none of them would reach the Final Four. Guess who’s looking pretty good now! (pay no attention to the Oklahoma is a sleeper pick.) In conclusion, big thanks to Texas and LSU for making me seem a little bit smarter than I actually am.

Unlike Duke, who everyone knew couldn’t hang with athletic big men, Texas can actually play against Big Baby and Tyrus Thomas. However, if guys like Darrel Mitchell, Tasmin Mitchell and Garrett Temple can play like they did against the Dookies, then they’ll have a real shot against the Horns. Texas’ backcourt, if you ignore Kenton Paulino’s last second shot, has been struggling in the tournament. The combination of Paulino, Gibson and Abrams combined for only 20 points on 7 for 27 shooting against the Hillbillies. They didn’t do much better against Herby and the Pack in round two. The Horns need more production for the backcourt, and if they don’t get it, it may open the door for a less talented Tigers team to sneak up and win this one.


While this picture of Tasmin Mitchell may not add anything, it does give everyone another opportunity to see Backne sulking in the background. That's good, isn't it?

The strength of the offense for both teams is the interior game. But LSU’s inside guys aren’t quite all that analysts make them out to be. LSU’s three main big men (Davis, Thomas and T.Mitchell) managed to score a solid 35 points against Duke. However, the three of them combined to shoot 11 for 27, which is not much better than the Texas guards, but the shots are coming much closer to the hoop. The only reason LSU was able to appear to own the inside game was because they were able to grab second and third chance opportunities against Sheldon Williams, his enormous forehead and the smaller and rebounding challenged Dookies. Against Texas, if the three forwards shoot that poorly, they are going to get blown out. The Tigers shouldn’t get too many second opportunities against the taller and more physical Longhorns. LaMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker, on the other hand, scored 41 points on 16 for 26 shooting for Texas against the similarly rebounding challenged Mountaineers. I like that shooting percentage a lot better.


LaMarcus Aldridge improving his NBA draft status.

Neither team is exceptionally deep, which is important when you are playing your second game in less than 48 hours. The guard play, and outside shooting, should suffer because of fatigue and lack of bench players. So the team with the best inside game should win. I think Texas nudges out this one. Which means they’ll probably give the game away in the last minute.
Pick: Texas 74, LSU 67




#2 UCLA Bruins (27-6) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (30-3)
Oakland Regional Final
Oakland Arena – Oakland, CA

UCLA beat #15 Belmont, #10 Alabama, #3 Gonzaga
Memphis beat #16 Oral Roberts, #9 Bucknell, #13 Bradley
Memphis beat UCLA 88-80 in NYC on 11/23

John Calipari and Phi Slamma Jamma ver 2.0 scored their third straight 16-point victory in the tournament against overmatched Bradley. No team has looked better than the Tigers so far, and no team remaining has played an easier slate of opponents to reach the Elite 8. I’ll say this about Memphis; at least they’re not fooling around with lesser opponents like UConn or Boston College. The wins themselves aren’t impressive, but the fact they are crushing these teams is important. And it makes this game a whole lot more interesting.

The Bruins have been playing with house money since slipping by Alabama in the second round, a game they probably should have lost if Ronnie Steele didn’t go cold in the final two minutes. Then the Bruins, left for dead by The Predictor with 10 minutes to go in their game against Gonzaga, stormed back after Derek Raivio forgot to pass the basketball to members of his own team. So UCLA has moved on in the tournament in a complete contrast from Memphis. If you look at the scores and the stats, the Bruins have not been impressive in winning, but what has been impressive is that they’re winning at all against two very good teams.


UCLA has been living the charmed life...but how much longer can this last?

The two teams played at Madison Square Garden in late November, with Memphis prevailing. I’m not going to go in depth about this game, since it was basically a full season ago. Memphis was much younger then and UCLA was much healthier. The Bruins were never in the game until a late surge made the game look respectable. Both teams, including the Bruins despite their injuries, have improved since that game.

For the third straight game, the Tigers are going to face a defense-oriented team with fewer natural athletes and much slower players. But the defense for UCLA is better than most Memphis has faced all season in Conference USA and the tournament so far. Even though UCLA’s defense did looked average at times against the Zags.

UCLA’s defense did have the benefit in playing in a weak Pac-10 Conference. Most teams in the Pac-10 have two, maybe three offensive threats at best. There are no complete teams out West other than recently eliminated Washington. Their opponents in the last two rounds, while very good teams, were not complete offensive teams. Alabama’s offense revolved around Steele, and Gonzaga’s obviously revolved around Morrison. With Memphis, UCLA is going to face the most explosive offense they’ve seen all year, and the Tigers are clicking right now. Aaron Afflalo should have a field day for the Bruins, as there is no natural defensive matchup for Memphis to throw at him. But the Tigers should be able to keep pace with his scoring. Like Bradley on Thursday, I don’t think UCLA has the height or the speed to stop Rodney Carney, Shawne Williams and Robert Dozier.


Who guards Carney tonight? One of UCLA's slow big men? I'd hope not.

X-factor in this one should be Memphis’ Chris Douglas-Roberts. Cedric Bozeman will be in charge of sticking him, and he didn’t do a great job with the three different Gonzaga players that he tried following around the court on Thursday. Memphis punches a ticket for Atlanta, unless they revert back to the team that does nothing but jack up threes.
Pick: Memphis 81, UCLA 71

2006 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 2

Before I get to the picks, gee, has anyone seen Duke lately? Hello…Dookies? Is thing on? Oh there they are. Back in Durham already? That was a mighty short stay in the ATL. Let’s just say that their performance against LSU was one of the biggest choke jobs in recent memory. For a team with all this “talent”, the Dookies sure knew how to squander it. And I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so.

I said in November that this Duke team was no better than the Duke team from last year that got bounced in the third round. And I don’t know how, but Ratface and company proved me right. There are so many enjoyable factoids from last night’s loss. First, they lost to a LSU team, which I happen to like watching, that only has three players worth anything. Two of their best players, Tyrus Thomas and Glen Davis, played (or didn’t play) most of the game with foul trouble, so they were limited in what they could do. The Mighty Dookies were basically beaten by an average freshman guard (Garrett Temple), an average freshman forward (Tasmin Mitchell) and a reserve forward who is usually the second man off the bench for John Brady (Darnell Lazare). And this was supposed to be a great Duke team? Duke lost exactly how I said they were going to lose. That overrated sack of crap wearing number four would be exhausted and have a bad shooting night, and that freshman point guard of theirs would make crucial mistakes late in the game. Both happened. How is Ratface still considered a great coach? A great coach would make sure that on his best team in five years, he wouldn’t have a freshman point guard starting. Can he recruit? Absolutely. Can he coach? Not really. He can’t make mid-game adjustments, he’s not a great practice coach and he doesn’t know how to use his bench. I’m sorry, with all the players that have passes through this hideous program, Ratface should have six or seven championships by now. He has beaten himself in the postseason more times than not.

As I write this, errant shots by Just Jumpers Backne Red-dick keep whizzing by my head. Nice shooting last night pretty boy. 3-18? 3-18 shooting in the biggest game of your college career? HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! Way to screw up the entire season. Backne was guarded by Temple for most of the night. So it wasn’t like Steve Blake or John Gilchrist was manning up against him. Temple played aggressive defense, and Redick, as usual, folded. All you have to do is breathe on this guy and he’s going to have a bad night. Backne’s reaction to the LSU defense is just a glimpse as to what will be coming when he goes to the NBA. He looked completely helpless last night. He couldn't get open. He ignored his coach (not like I blame him for that). He ignored his teammates. He was getting bumped and checked by LSU. He whined to the officials, he complained to the officals and he pleaded with the officals like a little punk. Then he quit. Once he realized that the refs weren't going to give him all the calls that the ACC officals usually do, he quit. He flat out quit. He went through the motions the rest of the night and took the team down with him. Instead of leading his team to victory, he led his team to defeat.

Redick’s lasting legacy will be one of underachievement. For all the “talent” he possesses, here is the bottom line. Four year at Duke, surrounded by All-American players, one Final Four appearance, three early exits, a bunch of meaningless and selfish individual accomplishments that will just show you how overrated Redick actually was. Good players put up numbers. Great players lead their teams to championships. As for now, get out, and stop polluting the game of college basketball, you whiny, choking, overrated little bitch. And take your friend the Rapist with you. Stop crying, be a man you pussy (that goes for the ‘Stache as well). These pictures will be priceless for a long time.


It's not as good as Jason Williams bawling as he left the court, or the famous pic of a kid in a Duke jersey crying at the ACC Championship game after Maryland won, but it's still pretty enjoyable.

Now to the picks. I was 2-2 after last night’s thrillers, and I’m 35-17 overall. Big sarcastic thanks to Gonzaga, who screwed my brackets up by handing their win to UCLA. Take my win…please!

Washington DC Region
Verizon Center – Washington, DC

#5 Washington (26-6) vs. #1 Connecticut (29-3)
The teams have not played this season
UW beat #12 Utah St. 75-61, #4 Illinois 67-64
UConn beat #16 Albany 72-59, #8 Kentucky 87-83
The Eastern Huskies seem hell-bent on ending my six-year streak of correctly picking the tournament winners. They’ve escaped two completely inferior teams to earn a game against a very good Washington squad.

As part of my job at WMAL, I was sent to cover the team practices at the MCI/Verizon/AT&T/Sprint Center yesterday. I knew that Brandon Roy was a good player. But after the show he put on yesterday, I realize that this dude is a serious playa. You remember that LeBron James commercial where the film is digitally spliced to make it look like James made five straight 75 foot shots? Well, Roy was doing something similar, except he was actually doing it. Roy stood a couple of feet in front of half-court, with a defender on him, and made eight straight jumpers. Unbelievable.

Anyway, I keep thinking that the real UConn will show up any day now. And that’s precisely the type of thinking that is going to cost me the $20 bucks I threw into my bracket pool. With the exception of whoever matchups on Roy, UConn should have advantages all over the court against the Western Huskies. Sure, U-Dub has a couple of nice forwards in Bobby Jones and Jamal Williams. Two solid seniors that average 11 and 13 points a game respectively. But without a good game from Roy, the Huskies will be traveling back to Seattle tonight. During a three game losing streak in late January, Roy was shut down by lesser Pac-10 teams. Williams, Jones and one of the better freshman centers in the country, Jon Brockman, couldn’t carry the team.

Washington certainly has the talent and the size to win this game. They also have a nine-man rotation that can keep sending waves of players off the bench to match UConn. And UW plays some resemblance of defense, unlike Kentucky did in the second round. For UConn to win, their guards are going to have to lead the team tonight. Marcus Williams, Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson are going to have to hit threes. 5’11” Justin Dentmon, the weak link in the Washington starting five, will have to guard one of those guards. Look for whomever he is guarding to get at least 22 points and lead the Huskies over the Huskies.
Pick: Connecticut 80, Washington 78

*THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE NIGHT*
#11 George Mason (25-7) vs. #7 Wichita State (26-8)
GMU defeated WSU 70-67 in Wichita on 2/18
GMU beat #6 Michigan St. 75-65, #3 UNC 65-60
WSU beat #10 Seton Hall 86-66, #2 Tennessee 80-73
The Billy Packer Special will be the game I’m most looking forward to. I had the Shockers going to the Sweet 16. As for Mason…well I had the Shockers going to the Sweet 16. What more do you people want from me?

As I said, I attended the open practice yesterday and got a chance to talk to some of the players and fans. I wasn’t going to pick Mason to win this game. But after interview Lamar Butler and Tony Skinn, I’m definitely not going to pick Mason to win this game. Not because they were rude or anything (although I did try to shield my nether-regions from Skinn), but because they were shorter and skinnier than they looked on TV. They were basically my size. Butler is listed as 6’3”, but I’m 5’8” and my eyes were level with his nose. He couldn’t be more than 6’ even. Skinn, listed as 6’1”, and I were basically standing eye-to-eye. I didn’t realize these guys were so tiny. How did this team manage to win two games against powerhouses? I don’t know, maybe you can tell me.

I also met this really nice (and really attractive) young woman from Wichita. And she knew her basketball. She was braking down WSU games and Mason games and making great points that I couldn’t even respond to. I was blown away. Most of my knowledge about these two teams comes from the game on February 18th that I watched. And Wichita State had a horrid shooting night. So I don’t know how much Mason’s three-point victory means. Anyway, I’ll let her summary be my analysis. She did it better than I could.

Basically, the frontcourt matchups, that will be the focus of CBS tonight, will be even and end up being a wash. Jai Lewis and Will Thomas for Mason should have he upper hand inside, but they’ll have trouble guarding Paul Miller and Kyle Wilson outside. Both the 6’10” Miller and the 6’8” Wilson play a European style of basketball and shoot really well from beyond the arc.

The key matchup will be Butler vs. P.J. Couisnard and the bench play between the two schools. She feels that as of late, Butler has been creating shots for himself and his teammates better than any guard not playing for Villanova. And it’s hard to argue there. Butler has been playing lights out. Especially when he gets Lewis involved inside. Couisnard is a lesser version of Redick. He can hit the open three, he can curl off of screens, but he can’t create on his own, he’s not a good passer and he’s not a good ball-handler (enter own Tony Skinn joke here). He is, however, a very good defender. So maybe he’s better than Backne because he can at least play some D. And before you think I’m crazy comparing this nobody to Duke’s nobody, let me ask you this. Which one of the two is still playing? That’s what I thought. If WSU is going to win, Cousinard is going to have to contain Butler, especially when he tries to drive. And P.J. must get open outside. He’ll at least have the height advantage.

The bench play favors WSU. Mason is not a deep team. They’ll bring serviceable Gabe Norwood and Sammy Fernandez off the pine, but neither of them do very much. The Shockers (and in my opinion, they should back to being called the Wheat Shockers…that’s a cool nickname) can bring Karon Bradley and Ryan Martin into the game and get 7 to 10 points of production from each guy. The bench points will be the difference. WSU’s scores about 12 points more a game than GMU’s.

So factor in the advantage on the bench for WSU with Mason’s slight advantage inside, and this terrific WSU fan came up with a pretty reasonable prediction. Heck, I’ll use that too.
Pick: Wichita State 68, George Mason 62

Minneapolis Region
H.H.H Metrodome – Minneapolis, MN

#4 Boston College (28-7) vs. #1 Villanova (26-3)
The teams have not played this season
BC beat #13 Pacific 88-76 (2OT), #12 Montana 69-56
Nova beat #16 Monmouth 58-45, #8 Arizona 82-78
The last team left standing from the ACC is…Boston College! And who predicted that would be the case all the way back in November? THIS GUY, that’s who! (what, no applause?) Though they never crushed the competition in the way they should have back in the regular season, BC was the conference’s most consistent team. Only that weird blowout loss to Virginia in mid-February is hard to explain.

The Eagles get to face their former conference mates in the greatest clash of styles in the tournament so far. Obviously, the matchup will feature Nova’s guards against BC’s inside game. Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to guessing which one will be more effective tonight.

Usually the tournament is built around great guard play. The team with the best guards, or at least the hottest shooting guards, advances more often than not. But every championship caliber team needs a big man. Where would Mateen Cleeves been if it wasn’t for MoPete? Where would Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants been if it wasn’t for Shaun May? And where would Saint Juan and Steve Blake been if it wasn’t for Lonny Baxter and Chris Wilcox? You can have a team oriented around guards, but you need a big guy inside in case of an off-shooting night. Maryland never would have survived the East Regional against Kentucky and UConn if it hadn’t been for Baxter. Dixon was not going to carry the Terps over the Huskies by himself.

Villanova is a little bit different. Instead of two great guards, they have four. So chances are that at least one of them will hot on any given night. But as we saw against Monmouth, and even against Arizona, it is possible for three of the four to have horrible games. So with Will Sheridan, a bench player on most teams, as the only guy resembling an inside presence for the Wildcats, one guard having a great night is not going to cut it in the NCAA’s.

That’s why I like Boston College. Looking at Nova’s guards, Mike Nardi hasn’t had a good game in over a month. He’s spent a lot of the tournament on the bench. So forget about him. Kyle Lowry has also been a non-factor recently. So that leaves us with Allan Ray and Randy Foye. The two of them scored 49 of Villanova’s 82 points against Zona. Sheridan had 16 points. But Sheridan won’t be able to do that against Craig Smith, Sean Williams and company underneath. So either three of the four guards will have to have great nights for Nova, or BC is going to have to endure a lot of foul trouble for Villanova to get their third scorer in the form of an inside player. I don’t think either will happen. Plus, there is always the height factor outside for BC. Sean Marshall and Jared Dudley will matchup against Foye and Ray. Both Marshall and Dudley are taller, and almost as quick, as the two Nova guards. So don’t expect Foye and Ray to combine for almost 50. BC is ten times better defensively than Arizona. It’s should be rude wake-up call for the ‘Cats.

Unless either Lowry or Nardi step up, Nova is stepping down. Too much gimmick, not enough inside presence in this offense.
Pick: Boston College 77, Villanova 71

#7 Georgetown (23-8) vs. #3 Florida (29-6)
The teams have not played this season
GTown beat #10 NIU 54-49, #2 OSU 70-52
UF beat #14 S. Alabama 76-50, #11 UWM 82-60

I'm not going to waste my time with this game. I don't like Florida. I don't like Georgetown. One of them has to win, but one of them has to lose. At this point, with Duke out, as long as one of these two schools don't win the whole thing, then I'll be happy.

I still don't trust the Greaseball that swamps the sidelines for Florida, but it's hard to pick the Princeton offense to win anything important.
Pick: Florida 75, Georgetown 66

2006 NCAA Tournament: Porn Mustaches, Cousin Lovers and KFC

For the first two rounds, I finished a respectable 33-15 (and to see the ol’ locked bracket, click here). All my Final Four picks are still alive. Six of my Elite 8 teams are here (minus Carolina and Ohio State). And I got 11 out of 16 correctly for the regional semifinals, including a perfect Atlanta bracket. One of my better years so far. Now it gets tough. The difference between Texas and West Virginia isn’t as great as the difference between Texas and Penn. There will be three very interesting games on Thursday. Naturally, I’ll be starting with the game that isn’t.

Oakland Regional
Oakland Arena – Oakland, CA

#13 Bradley (22-10) vs. #1 Memphis (32-3)
The teams did not play this season
Bradley beat #4 Kansas 77-73, #5 Pitt 72-66
Memphis beat #16 Oral Roberts 94-78, #9 Bucknell 72-56
Amazingly, Memphis could become the first team in NCAA history to make the Final Four without playing a team from a power conference (they would have to meet Gonzaga in the next round to accomplish this). So the Conference USA champion, used to playing weaker competition, has the perfect road through Oakland to Indy. In the regional semis, they get Bradley, a team that has used just about all their luck in the first two rounds and should be overmatched at just about every position against Memphis. After which, the Tigers can sit back and watch UCLA and Gonzaga slug it out to see who they play next. Of all the schools left in the tournament, Memphis is best situated to make the Final Four.

To do so, they must find a way to stop the two-headed monster for the Braves. Marcellus Sommerville, Bradley’s 6’7” senior forward, shouldn’t be a problem for the many 6’7”-6’8” athletic forwards that Memphis uses. The real problem for the Tigers is the seven-footer Patrick O’Bryant. This was John Calipari’s fear all season, that the Tigers would run into a true dominant center. Memphis has no true dominant center. With Joey Dorsey, Shawne Williams and Robert Dozier (off the bench), Memphis has three power forwards, but no one with the size or height of O’Bryant. Memphis has not seen a lot of powerful centers, and when they have, they’ve lost (against Duke and Texas). The only decent big man they played all year, and beat, was Gonzaga’s J.P. Batista, who at 6’9”, was hardly a problem for the platoon at power forward.

There is no secret of how Bradley must play to win. Defensively, they must sag and collapse on the Tigers post players. Along with Dorsey and Williams, Memphis has small forward Rodney Carney who can score and board inside with the best of them. The Braves would be wise to play a zone, most likely a 2-3 zone, forcing the streaky-shooting guards to beat you. I’d rather put the game in the hands of Darius Washington at 20 feet away from the hoop than in the hands of Carney, Dorsey and Williams and the second coming of Phi Slamma Jamma. Plus, with Memphis’ transition game, the Tigers are prone to rushing up bad shots from the outside, so a zone for Bradley would only encourage more bad outside shots.

On offense, the Braves guard combo of Daniel Ruffin and Tony Bennett, who despite playing in Oakland, I’m sure left his heart in San Francisco, must look inside to either Sommerville or O’Bryant on every possession. There is no way Bradley will win a three-point shooting, run-and-gun game with Memphis. There is no way the Braves would be within 20. If they slow down the game, feed the ball to the low post, and cut down on Memphis fast breaks by not jacking up bad three-point shots, the Braves have a chance.

Unfortunately for Bradley, I don’t see any of this happening. I see Memphis working the ball inside early and getting either Sommerville or O’Bryant in foul trouble. As the inside opens up, Bradley’s chances of imploring a zone that actually works will decrease. With one, or both of their big men on the bench, and with no way of scoring inside, the three-point shots will not fall for Bradley. The bad three-pointers will lead to Memphis’ transition game, which will lead to a big win for the Tigers.
Pick: Memphis 82, Bradley 67

*THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE NIGHT*
#3 Gonzaga (29-3) vs. #2 UCLA (29-6)
The teams did not play this season
Gonzaga beat #14 Xavier 79-75, #6 Indiana 90-80
UCLA beat #15 Belmont 78-44, #10 Alabama 62-59
This matchup can be summed up in one question: Can UCLA’s solid defense shutdown Gonzaga’s dangerous offense? The Bruins don’t have the ability to score with the Bulldogs, but Gonzaga can’t afford to play a low scoring game with a team that’s defense is twenty times better than theirs.

I think the most telling indication for this game was Gonzaga’s second round win over Indiana. Adam Morrison looked horrible, but for the first time all season, the Zags’ role players stepped up in a game against tough competition. Batista had 20 and 9. Which was no real surprise, since he’s played well all year. But how about Sean Mallon scoring 15? Or struggling Derek Raivio scoring 13, eight of which from the free throw line (which he usually never sees). And who knew that Gonzaga even had bench players? Erroll Knight had 11 and Jeremy Pargo added 10 off the pine. If you told me before the game that Morrison was only going to score 14 points on 5 for 17 shooting, I would have asked you how soon will Digger Phelps’ annual choking-dog Gonzaga rant would start.

The bad sign for UCLA is that with Morrison having an off night, Gonzaga still scored 90 points. And the likelihood of Morrison having two bad games in a row is slim to none. So if the rest of the role players execute in lockstep with the ‘Stache and Batista, this game should be no problem for the Bulldogs.

The Bruins do have the favorable matchup outside. Arron Afflalo and Jordan Farmer should get their points against Raivio, Pargo and Pierre Altidor-Cespedes (why A-C even plays is beyond me, he brings absolutely nothing to the table for Gonzaga). But the frontcourt matchup is overwhelmingly in favor of Gonzaga. I’m assuming that Ben Howland will send Cedric Bozeman to guard Morrison. Despite what I’ve been hearing, Bozeman is one of the Bruins worst defensive players. But there doesn’t appear to be much Howland can do otherwise. Afflalo and Farmer give up way too much size to Morrison and Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute (are you serious with that name?) at 6’7” is too slow and is only a freshman. Morrison averaged 28.4 during the regular season, and I expect him to drop at least that many against the Bruins. Also, look for Mallon to score at least 15 of his own. It should be close, but the Zags are moving on.
Pick: Gonzaga 84, UCLA 76

Atlanta Regional
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA

#4 Louisiana State (25-8) vs. #1 Duke (32-3)
The teams did not play this season
LSU beat #13 Iona 80-64, #12 Texas A&M 58-57
Duke beat #16 Southern 70-54, #8 GW 74-61
Two games into the tournament, and no high seed other than UConn looks as disinterested and average as the Dookies. They allowed Southern to hang around for 25 minutes or so. Then against a GW squad that everyone knew was overrated, even as an eight seed, the Dookies turned in a sloppy performance against the Colonials. By the way, GW played one of its worst games of the season, and still hung around until the middle of the second half. And now the Blow Devils actually have to leave the state of North Carolina for the first time in three weeks. What, the committee couldn’t put the regionals in Raleigh or Charlotte? Luckily for Duke, they get a LSU team that barely escaped Texas A&M and the Fighting Gillespies with a looooooong three pointer from Darrel Mitchell.

I have not seen a lot of LSU this season. I watched their game against A&M. I saw a couple of SEC games as well. I really don’t know what to make of them. They seem to have two great shooters (Darrel and Tasmin Mitchell). They certainly have two of the best post players in the country with Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas. They just don’t impress me. They average nearly 80 points a game, yet seem to be stuck in low scoring and close games every time I see them. They are balanced, with four players scoring over 11 points a game and six players scoring 7 points a game. Yet, despite the seemingly balanced scoring, their offense revolves around Davis (and at 310 pounds, a lot of things revolve around Davis’ gravitational pull). And despite out rebounding opponents by a margin of almost 10 per game, the Tigers didn’t seem to grab any clutch rebounds against the Aggies, allowing Texas A&M to hang in that game much longer than they should have. Add in the fact that LSU really didn’t beat anyone of importance except WVU in the out of conference schedule, and the SEC is almost as overrated as the Big 10, and you’re left wondering how much any of these stats really mean.

So with that in mind, on paper at least, this game actually favors LSU. And I know a lot of people are picking them to pull the upset. The Rapist and New White Stiff Joshlik McRandolph should have all kinds of problems stopping the bigger Davis and the quicker Thomas. I would love to see McRoberts actually try that hook move that he’s perfected, but is never called, against Davis. Big Baby would eat him. Seriously, he would actually eat him. This is a man who once ate an entire family-sized KFC chicken bucket…for a midnight snack! The Rapist has never learned how to guard guys who are both taller and wider than he is, so look for him to pick up some fouls and spend a lot of the first half on the bench, feeding New White Stiff to the wolves and Davis.

Why do I just have the feeling that this is going to be a Backne game? LSU really has no one to guard him. So either LSU will make the mistake that most first-timers against Duke do, which is pay too much attention to Redick while the rest of the supporting cast of nerds get open shots. Or, they will try to stick one of their average defending guards on him, and he’ll go off for 30 or more.

LSU is going to have to hit some threes in this game. They can’t trade layups from Thomas and Davis with Duke’s three-pointers. I just don’t see anyone from the Tigers backcourt stepping up. LSU is going to try to play slowdown offense to work the ball inside, which will conversely help the fatigue factor for Ratface’s bunch (and for those who don’t think that Duke is showing signs of tiring, the first two games, especially the way that Southern hung in the game, are clear signs of fatigue). What we can hope for is close, tough and physical game that wears the Dookies out for the regional final against either West Virginia or Texas. I just don’t see LSU pulling this one out. Unless Davis gets really hungry.
Pick: Duke 74, LSU 69

#6 West Virginia (22-10) vs. #2 Texas (29-6)
Texas defeated WVU 76-75 in Kansas City on 11/21
WVU beat #11 S. Illinois 64-46, #14 N’Western St. 67-54
Texas beat #15 Penn 60-52, #10 NC State 75-54
Because the first game between these two was so long ago, and was so close, the final outcome of the contest really doesn’t mean much now. However, the trends and the way the players performed still have some meaning. Here is what I gathered from that game and the rest of the season. West Virginia, for the life of them, can’t stop a good inside player. And Texas has a great inside player in LeMarcus Aldridge. Not only that, since Aldridge can actually step out and play solid perimeter defense, Kevin Pittsnogle, the embodiment of every stereotype possible about West Virginia (And for those slow-witted WVU fans reading, that means that people like Pittsnogle are just one of the many reasons the rest of the country makes fun at your expense. Trust me, we aren’t laughing with you.), struggled in the game against Texas on both ends of the court and will do so in this game as well.

So the Cousin Lovers will have to rely on their great guard shooting in this game. One problem with that: as of late, their guard shooting has been strictly average. The ‘Queers looked terrible in the Big East tournament and nothing short of ordinary in the first two rounds of the NCAA’s. Which, by the way, were against very weak teams. It will be a quick step up in talent against the Horns.

Mike Gansey torched Texas in the first game, netting 28 points. But he is mired in a slump. Don’t look for that kind of performance again. So with Pittsnogle tied up by Aldridge, and Gansey unable to hit the broad side of a West Virginia barn or his rotund sister/wife/cousin as of late, Joe Herber is going to have to carry the team. And as much as I like Herber, it isn’t going happen.

Meanwhile, in the first game between these two, Texas relied on a balanced attack of Aldridge (15 pts), P.J. Tucker (19 pts), Daniel Gibson (20 pts) and Brad Buckman (12 pts). All but Buckman have a good chance of repeating their performance against the Hicks. The problem for the Longhorns in the first game was the bench scoring. When A.J. Abrams scored a short jumper in the middle of the second half, that represented the entire bench scoring for Texas. But the bench has gotten much better as the season has gone on. Rick Barnes is using Abrams and Mike Williams much more effectively (and for the WVU fans, that effectively means better) as the season wears along. While a despicable WVU-Duke regional final is not out of the realm of possibility, Texas should save the nation from having to watch that repulsive matchup.
Pick: Texas 79, West Virginia 72

2006 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 2

Through three days, I’m in still in great shape bracket wise. My Elite 8 (UConn, UNC, BC, Ohio State, Duke, Texas, Memphis and Gonzaga) are all still alive. I’ve only lost Oklahoma, Marquette and Illinois from my Sweet 16. The Wichita State pick is looking pretty good now. My boy Gillespie and his band of upstarts almost pulled the upset over LSU. Even though I was rooting for him, LSU needed to win that game. Not only to help my brackets, but to eliminate Duke in Atlanta. As much as I loved Texas A&M, there was no way they were going to stop the Ultimate Nerds.

Today’s games offer us two killer 1 vs. 8 contests. Connecticut-Kentucky and Villanova-Arizona is a pretty good Final Four most seasons. I’ll preview those two matchups. And if you’re interested, and I highly doubt it, I’ll even admit fault in one of my picks. It doesn’t happen often. So after a 6-2 Saturday, I pull into Sunday with a 28-12 tournament mark.

Washington DC Region

#8 Kentucky (22-12) vs. #1 Connecticut (28-3)
So Calhoun, buddy…what the hell was that performance on Friday all about? Does he not know that I’ve correctly picked the tournament winner six years in a row? It would have been pretty embarrassing for that streak to end on the second night of the tournament, to a 16th seed no less. Because I live in the DC area, CBS showed the George Mason-Michigan State game, even when UConn went down by 10 in the second half. I’m sorry, unless George Mason himself came back to play point guard for the Patriots, CBS should have switched over to that game. By the time the Mason game ended, UConn had gone up by a few possessions with five minutes or so left in the game. That was almost history in the making, and we almost missed it to watch Tom Izzo and uber-white stiff Paul Davis make an early exit. Again, bad programming. Also, I think CBS should look into have Bill Raftery call every game. Let’s figure out how to do that. Anyway, a great matchup here. Suffice to say, if UConn plays like they did on Friday, they’ll be done for the season. This game is kinda like a mini 2002 Syracuse regional reunion. The Predictor went to his first live tournament action when Maryland ran through one of the toughest fields in NCAA history. In Syracuse, the Terps ran into Tayshaun Prince’s Kentucky team in the Sweet 16, followed by a Caron Butler and a young Emeka Okafor’s UConn team in the regional final. Of course, one team is conspicuously absent from this reunion (But since they have some free time after embarrassing themselves in the NIT, maybe they could drive up to Philly and watch this one). Kentucky’s smaller backcourt should have problems with the taller Huskies guards. The problems are contingent on UConn shooting better than the 30% or so it shot on Friday. Still, this is the best game of the tournament so far. I’m going to assume that Connecticut’s poor performance was due to Albany playing their best game possible while at the same time, UConn overlooked the Danes because of the tough outs they face the next few rounds. UConn potentially has to go through UK, Washington, UNC and then two more top teams in Indianapolis. That would be the toughest run since Maryland’s 2002 trip. Hopefully UConn can sustain their success a little bit longer than the Terps did. And hopefully they shoot well today.
Pick: Connecticut 84, Kentucky 72


Sigh, remember when Maryland had this guy and made the NCAA tournament. You can probably see The Predictor in the background.

#11 George Mason (24-7) vs. #3 North Carolina (23-7)
Memo to Roy Williams: make sure your players are wearing their cups tonight. Tony Skinn is back in action after his suspension, and hopefully he has not improved on his recent ball-handling skills. Skinn’s recent attempt to grab some skin wasn’t quite a Chris Paul situation. If anyone remembers back to last season, Paul punched Julius Hodge right in the groin during the last week of ACC contests. If it were anyone other than Hodge, I would have felt for the guy. As I was watching the Mason-MSU game at my friends’ apartment, CBS replayed the inappropriate incident. And as my friend Beasley noticed, Skinn’s low blow wasn’t as much a punch as it was a grab. Which is even more disturbing than I first thought. So here’s hoping that UNC protects the rock much better than they did against Murray State, and protects their rocks from Tony Skinn and ousts this punk post haste.
Pick: North Carolina 76, George Mason 63

Minneapolis Region

#8 Arizona (20-12) vs. #1 Villanova (25-3)
Team Gimmick meets Team Dysfunction (at least the Western version…the eastern version just lost Manhattan) in a game that should mean relatively little by the end of the tournament. The winner gets a Boston College team that mailed it in for 20 minutes and still managed to beat a good Montana team by 13 points. If there is one team that is quick enough on the perimeter to hang with ‘Nova’s four guard lineup, it is Lute Olsen’s crew. Look for Zona center Kirk Walters to see less playing time and guard Chris Rodgers to see more off the bench. When the 6-4 Rodgers is on the court, he joins Mustafa Shakur, Hassan Adams and the other Marcus Williams as one of the tallest, and fastest guard lineups in the country. If Arizona comes out strong, and that is a big if with this inconsistent and moody team, they have the ability to shut down Villanova’s premier backcourt. Williams is an outstanding player, and surprisingly, a kid you can root for on this otherwise disgusting team of criminals and misfits (unlike the similarly named player on Connecticut, who is the reason you can’t spell UConn with C-O-N). I think Nova nips Arizona here, but it’s going to be close all the way through if the real Arizona shows up. I guarantee the Wildcats will win (think about it).
Pick: Villanova 83, Arizona 81


The name's the same, the game's the same, but the criminal files are different.

#7 Georgetown (22-8) vs. #2 Ohio State (26-5)
One of the two “dud” games tomorrow. Expect a lot of missed shots. Expect a lot of turnovers. Expect a lot of ugly basketball. In many ways than one, this game will resemble a football game more than anything else. And I think Ohio State had the better football team most seasons. Unfortunately, since Georgetown is the “local” team, guess which game I’ll be stuck watching tomorrow afternoon. The sooner the Hoyas are knocked off, the better.
Pick: Ohio State 65, Georgetown 59

Atlanta Region

#10 NC State (22-9) vs. #2 Texas (28-6)
How does a team get blown out by Wake Forest, then beat California in the NCAA tournament? Two reasons. First, the Pac-10 really is as bad as everyone says it is. Two, this team is coached by Herb Sendek. It seems every season, Ol’ Herb has his balls on the hot seat (but at least away from Tony Skinn). He somehow manages to win just enough tournament games so the small minority of Pack fans can make a case for him to return next season. And then he promptly goes out and recruits a sub par class and underachieves, leaving the majority of Pack fans wondering how he has coached in Raleigh for over a decade. The question is, will one NCAA win over Cal be enough to keep Herby in the Triangle for another season?
Pick: Texas 74, NC State 61

#14 Northwestern State (26-7) vs. #6 West Virginia (21-10)
Not much to say here. WVU should blowout Northwestern State. Iowa was a prototypical upset team. The Hawkeyes relied completely on their defense to win because they couldn’t shoot worth a Canadian penny on most nights. Those are the teams that get knocked off in the first round because they can never get a 15-20 point lead on inferior competition. They just don’t have the offense to do it. And the old saying that the longer you let a lesser team hang around, the better chance they have of knocking you off at the end is so true in the case (By the way, I'm left wondering if all those fickle Hoosiers fans still want Steve Alford. What, exactly, has he ever won?). Unfortunately for the NSU Demons, the Fightin’ Hicks can score in bunches. To stay within striking distance like they did against Iowa, NSU is going to have to put up somewhere in the vicinity of 75 points. As much as I would love to see it, I don’t think the Demons can play in that type of game and have a chance to win.
Pick: West Virginia 80, Northwestern State 64


This is what happens when you use a Big 10 offense.

Oakland Region

#9 Bucknell (27-4) vs. #1 Memphis (31-3)
Like NSU, Bucknell has the fate of going up against the wrong team. Bucknell is a defense first team. Against the terrible Arkansas defense, the Bison only managed to put up 59. Now Memphis’ defense is worse, but their offense is much, much better than anything Bucknell saw in the first round. The advantage that the Bison have over a team in the situation of NSU is the experience factor. Memphis plays mostly underclassmen. The Bison play three seniors and a pair of juniors. That will make this game interesting. But in terms of “athleticism”, Memphis runs circles over anything that Pat Flannery can throw out on the court. If the Bison can slow this game down, and I mean way down, and get another off shooting night from the Tigers, they actually have a shot here. My guess is that either Shawne Williams or Joey Dorsey will go off against the slower Bison and end up being the difference maker.
Pick: Memphis 79, Bucknell 67

#13 Bradley (21-11) vs. #5 Pittsburgh (25-7)
Ok, so I was completely wrong about the Braves. I’m not perfect. And it’s not like I’m Billy Packer. Packer insulted teams that he had never seen play. I at least saw two Bradley games this season, and they looked awful both times. And despite looking just as bad as I remembered, Kansas looked much worse and handed Bradley a win. Personally, I have nothing against Bradley. Why would I? So now I’m faced picking a game between a team I don’t respect and a team I don’t like or respect. Pitt will probably go into one of their trademarked 15-minute offensive comas and still come out ahead here. Some of these games, like the UConn-Kentucky or Tennessee-Wichita State matches, are the reasons that this tournament is so entertaining and so popular. Then there are games like this that make me wonder why I watch the college game at all. I’m guessing first one to 55 wins. Exciting!
Pick: Pittsburgh 58, Bradley 53

2006 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 1

Ok, time to catch your breath. If anyone was expecting a Manhattan-Maryland preview today, you’ve come to the wrong place. I don’t follow the NIT. I couldn’t tell you most of the teams in it. Apparently Maryland and Manhattan are. I guess Notre Dame, Florida State and Colorado are in it as well. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. I don’t even know how many team are invited. I just never cared. I'll offer my solution on how to clean up this program shortly. Or it will wait til next year. We'll see.

Anyway, I’d like to apologize for the site being down the last couple of days. It wasn’t my fault at all. The clowns here at Blogger.com continue to have problems maintaining their servers. It seems every time I go to post something, there is some technical error. This time, I could post, edit and publish normally. But for some reason, the site was un-viewable. And since I know very little on computers or the internet, I’m just going to assume that this is par for the course. But I’ll probably move the webpage to another host (is that the right term?) shortly. You know, a host that doesn’t let it’s website crash for days at a time.

Back to the tournament. As I said on Thursday, this is where you are going to see my predictions differ from my locked bracket. For example, I had Marquette beating UCLA in the second round. Obviously that isn’t going to happen. So while my locked bracket is punished for that, my picks will not be. Overall, I’m in pretty good shape. All of my Elite 8 teams are still alive and I’ve only lost two of Sweet 16 teams (In the words of Bill Raftery: "ONIONS!"). My bracket is in better shape than most years (although UConn gave me, and everyone, quite a scare). I went 10-6 yesterday and I’m now 22-10 overall in the tournament. If you want to see my locked bracket, go look at the posts for the last two days and you can find the link. Here we go.

Washington DC Region

#7 Wichita State (25-8) vs. #2 Tennessee (22-7)
How they got here:
WSU beat #10 Seton Hall in first round, 86-66
UT beat #15 Winthrop in first round, 63-61
Oh Tennessee, c’mon on. Despite what Bruce Pearl says, Winthrop is not that good of a team. The Vols certainly played the part of an overseeded team from an overrated conference. Still, they had no business needing a desperation shot from Chris Lofton to win a game against the 15th seeded Eagles. Now they face a talented Shockers team that just came off an absolute beat down of overmatched Seton Hall. And what have I been telling you for the past three weeks? I said if SHU snuck into the tournament, they were going to be blasted in the first round. The Shockers played very well, but most of it was the atrociousness of Seton Hall. They’ve shouldn’t have been in this tournament over Cincinnati, Florida State, Missouri State or anyone else. I’m glad that WSU dispatched them ever so quickly. Take that garbage back to the garbage state! Anyway, this is the matchup I had in my locked brackets and I took WSU to pull the upset. I see no reason to change that pick here.
Pick: Wichita State 77, Tennessee 68

#5 Washington (25-6) vs. #4 Illinois (26-6)
How they got here:
UW beat #12 Utah State in first round, 75-61
Illinois beat #13 Air Force in first round, 78-69
In what should be the day’s most intriguing matchup, the Huskies are coming off an impressive win over Utah State that those on the East Coast saw absolutely none of. I’d like to talk about, because it seemed that U-dub completely owned a good mid-major team in USU, but the morons at CBS didn’t show one second of the game in this area. Instead, CBS decided to show Southern-Duke for a while (boy did Ratface’s gang look strictly average), before having the good sense to take that crap off the air and show Texas A&M-Syracuse. And ESPN didn’t show any highlights of the UW game on SportsCenter. So other than the box score and the game recounts, I’m in the dark on that one. I did see some of the Illinois game. They shot real well, but Air Force’s Princeton offense took them apart defensively for a good 30 minutes before the Falcons faded. I think the Illini will squeak by with a win here, but if they let the Huskies shoot as well as the Falcons did, Bruce Weber will be donning the orange blazer for the last time this season. And note to CBS: I want to see this game. I would love to be able to watch the country’s most complete player (Brandon Roy) compete against a good Illinois team.
Pick: Illinois 82, Washington 77

Minneapolis Region

#11 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (22-8) vs. #3 Florida (28-6)
How they got here:
UWM beat #6 Oklahoma in first round, 84-72
UF beat #14 South Alabama in first round, 76-50
Well, I had the Sooners pegged entirely wrong. Talk about underachieving. Maybe I’ll have to rethink my opinion on Kelvin Sampson. His team looked entirely uninterested in the NCAA tournament. Never a sign of good coaching. Anyway, I had Oklahoma going to the Sweet 16 mainly because I didn’t think Florida would go more than one weekend without tanking. I still believe that. The Panthers will be this year’s double-digit Sweet 16 team.
Pick: Wisconsin-Milwaukee 80, Florida 75

#12 Montana (24-6) vs. #4 Boston College (27-7)
How they got here:
UM beat #5 Nevada in first round, 87-79
BC beat #13 Pacific in first round, 88-76 (2OT)
While I didn’t lose any of my Elite 8 teams yet, two of them gave me near heart attacks in the first round. Connecticut should have blown out Albany. But Boston College had a predicable tough game against underrated Pacific. Even though I have BC in the Final Four, I said here on Thursday that BC would struggle through their first game. They matchup well against Montana, Villanova and Ohio State. Look for easier victories from here on out. Montana is a great story, but I don’t see them beating BC.
Pick: Boston College 78, Montana 64

Atlanta Region

#8 George Washington (27-2) vs. #1 Duke (31-3)
How they got here:
GW beat #9 UNC-Wilmington in first round, 88-85 (OT)
Duke beat #16 Southern in first round, 70-54
Well, Duke looked average against Southern the other night. This team isn’t going to win anything. They also aren’t going to get bounced here. GW got by the Seahawks on a wing and prayer. Man, you think UNC-Wilmington wants to face a DC area team anytime soon? First it was Drew Nicholas for Maryland, then the wrong end of a 19-0 run against the Colonials. If UNCW makes it again and sees Georgetown in the first round, they may want to pass on showing up.
Pick: Duke 77, George Washington 69

#12 Texas A&M (22-8) vs. #4 Louisiana State (24-8)
How they got here:
A&M beat #5 Syracuse in first round, 66-58
LSU beat #13 Iona in first round, 80-64
There are plenty of times I go out on a limb and I end up being completely wrong (come back tomorrow when I try to explain how Bradley beat Kansas). But there are other times where I look great. Big thank you to Billy Gillespie and Texas A&M. I’m sure that some had them beating Syracuse. Picking that upset wasn’t spectacular. But, if you go back and read some of posts of the past month, I said that A&M would get hot, go on a winning streak, beat Texas at home, make the NCAA tournament and win at least one game. How many had that happening? That my friends, is an amazing prognostication. Hopefully Gillespie can get his players to College Station and build this program. This is where their run ends in 2006.
Pick: LSU 68, Texas A&M 61

Oakland Region

#10 Alabama (18-12) vs. #2 UCLA (28-6)
How they got here:
Alabama beat #7 Marquette in first round, 90-85
UCLA beat #15 Belmont in first round, 78-44
Alabama validated their selection to the tournament. I thought that Marquette had a real shot at shocking the Oakland region and making the Final Four. I didn’t pick it, but I considered it a real possibility. They won’t even get a chance to play UCLA in the second round. Of all the 1 and 2 seeds, UCLA looked the best in the first round. I’m beginning to regret not picking them to make it out of Oakland. The Bruins could be the team that ruins my bracket if they keep moving on. They will here.
Pick: UCLA 82, Alabama 66

#6 Indiana (19-11) vs. #3 Gonzaga (28-3)
How they got here:
IU beat #11 San Diego St. in first round, 87-83
‘Zaga beat #14 Xavier in first round, 79-75
So Gonzaga tried to do their best - well, their best Gonzaga impression – and almost choked away a three seed in the first round. This is why Gonzaga doesn’t get 1 and 2 seed placements. The committee doesn’t want a 1 or 2 exiting in the first round, and with Gonzaga, you never know what’s going to happen. Despite becoming a powerhouse in the Northwest, Gonzaga is still a mid-major. A really, really good mid-major, but a mid-major nonetheless.
Pick: Gonzaga 80, Indiana 71

2006 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2

Your bracket busted yet? Well, mine isn’t. Mostly because all the teams I have going far start play today. So I got one day to enjoy everyone else in my various pools (1 office, 1 friends pools…10 bucks each if you were curious) having their brackets crumble before mine suffers a similar fate. Or maybe not. Like I’ve said before, I’ve correctly predicted the champion the last seven years in a row. Usually that is good enough to win a pool. But we’ll see, a lot of basketball to be played. My record for yesterday’s games was 12-4 and you can see my progress in my locked bracket HERE. On ESPN's scoring system, I received 120 points out of 160. Now to Friday’s games.

Washington DC Region

Philadelphia, PA
Wachovia Center
#16 Albany (21-10) vs. #1 Connecticut (27-3)
As you saw yesterday, I have UConn winning it all. That really shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone. And as you also saw yesterday, I’m not going to waste time on 1 vs. 16 games. There isn’t much of a point.
Pick: Connecticut 89, Albany 60

#9 Alabama-Birmingham (24-6) vs. #8 Kentucky (21-12)
This game was one of the more memorable contests from two years ago. UAB, a nine seed, shocked the top-seeded Wildcats. If I remember correctly, I had Kentucky leaving in the third round that year, but almost went with them going out to UAB. Mike Anderson (the Blazer coach, not the newest addition to the junior college outfit in Baltimore) plays the kind of aggressive and up-tempo style I love to watch. Kentucky’s guards, Rajon Rondo, Joe Crawford and Patrick Sparks, have all kind of problems hanging on to the basketball. That should spell doom against the Runnin’ Blazers. The only thing that could hurt UAB is if they force too many shots. Every once and awhile in transition is OK, but Birmingham has a tendency to force too many at times. Look, any team with a guy named Squeaky is a must pick for me.
Pick: UAB 81, Kentucky 78

Dayton, OH
University of Dayton Arena
#14 Murray State (24-6) vs. #3 North Carolina (22-7)
The key for the Racers, and all upcoming UNC opponents, is to stop Tyler Hansbrough. Can Wes Miller, Reyshawn Terry and David Noel hit 3’s? Of course. But I’d rather put the ball in their hands instead of letting Hansbrough run lay-up drills all afternoon. The Racers only have one player taller than 6’7” and it’s average center Pearson Griffin. However, Murray State uses a 2-3 and an unusual 1-3-1 zone defensively, and it paid off. The Racers are one of the better defensive teams, in terms of both scoring and shooting percentage, in the country. The one problem for State is the lack of scoring – only one player averages 10 points a game (Shawn Witherspoon at 10.8 ppg). The Racers do have one player familiar with the ACC; UVA’s former thug Keith Jenifer. You remember, the kid who started fights with Juan Dixon, Steve Blake, Gary Williams, a team trainer and the towel boy. The Racers may win a steel cage match, but not a basketball game.
Pick: North Carolina 80, Murray State 58

#11 George Mason (23-7) vs. #6 Michigan State (22-11)
Speaking of thugs, one player that won’t be on the floor is Mason’s suspended guard Tony Skinn. Skinn, taking a page from the Chris Paul school of fighting, sucker-punched a Hofstra player in the groin in the Patriots CAA quarterfinal loss. He is suspended for one game. And as much as I would love to see a Keith Jenifer-Tony Skinn grudge match in the second round, it isn’t going to happen. I hope.
Pick: Michigan State 74, George Mason 62

Minneapolis Region

Philadelphia, PA
Wachovia Center
#16 Monmouth (19-14) vs. #1 Villanova (24-3)
Villanova gets two gifts this weekend. First, they were ridiculously allowed to play in the Wachovia Center, a building they played three home games in during the regular season (Any more home games there and the NCAA wouldn’t have allowed them to play there. Still, this is a practice that the NCAA shouldn’t allow. If you play a home game at an arena, you shouldn’t be playing there in the NCAA’s). Second, they and their fanbase get to cheer against their rival, and my champion pick, UConn in Philadelphia. Monmouth, for their part, looked pretty good in the 10 minutes I watched them on Tuesday against Hampton. Villanova isn’t Hampton.
Pick: Villanova 85, Monmouth 54

#9 Wisconsin (19-11) vs. #8 Arizona (19-12)
Fact: Arizona has never won a tournament game when they’ve been given anything worse than a five seed. Fact: I don’t care, Wisconsin lost to North Dakota State a month ago. Wisconsin’s 19-11 record, complete with a loss to a fringe D-1 team, shouldn’t be in the NCAA’s.
Pick: Arizona 70, Wisconsin 58

Dayton, OH
University of Dayton Arena
#15 Davidson (20-10) vs. Ohio State (25-5)
Like I said yesterday, in February, I named my four sleeper Final Four picks coming into this tournament. Three of them (OSU, Oklahoma and Boston College) were placed in the same region. So I’ve had to pick which one I like the best (as you can see from the locked bracket, it wasn’t OSU). With only Terence Dials inside, the Buckeyes are too reliant on the outside shot. It’s good to be guard heavy in March, but not to the degree that ‘Nova and OSU are. One bad shooting night, even to a team like Davidson, means that the Buckeyes go home earlier than anticipated. Davidson’s got some decent inside play this year from Ian Johnson and Tommy Sander. They’ll cancel out Dials. Which means the Buckeyes will have to shoot well outside. And they’ve struggled to do so at times this season. If a 15 seed is going to win this year, Davidson will be the team. I won’t pick it, but it wouldn’t surprise me. I think OSU will be able to get to Minneapolis, but anything after that is up in the air, just like their three-point shots.
Pick: Ohio State 67, Davidson 52

#10 Northern Iowa (23-9) vs. #7 Georgetown (21-8)
Yuck, another MVC team. If your name isn’t Wichita State, I don’t want to hear from you. Both of these teams peaked about a month ago, and both have been in somewhat of a freefall. The Hoyas can blame part of that on their tough conference. What can the Panthers blame it on other than poor shooting and poor playing?
Pick: Georgetown 63, Northern Iowa 54

Atlanta Region

Auburn Hills, MI
Palace at Auburn Hills
#14 Northwestern State (25-7) vs. #3 Iowa (25-8)
At first glance, most would assume this wouldn’t be much of a game. And it may not be. But NSU is from the Southland Conference. Southland winners are usually saddled with 16 seeds and trips to the play-in-game. But NSU did enough to earn a 14 seed. Why? They’ve beaten Oklahoma State in Stillwater. They lost to Iowa State in double-overtime. They have a 10-man rotation. Rarely does a small school employ that much depth without losing much on the court. They’ve also won 15 of 16. I think the Demons make it interesting. I don’t have a lot of stock in Big 10 teams other than Illinois and OSU. The Hawkeyes slide by, but it will be tight.
Pick: Iowa 69, Northwestern State 64

#11 Southern Illinois (22-10) vs. #6 West Virginia (20-10)
Two questions here. First, you thought it was embarrassing for Wisconsin to lose to North Dakota State? Well, SIU lost to D-2 school Anchorage-Alaska this season. Second, you thought I had no respect for Northern Iowa? Well, I have less for Southern Illinois. The hicks advance.
Pick: West Virginia 76, Southern Illinois 59

Dallas, TX
American Airlines Center
#15 Pennsylvania (20-8) vs. #2 Texas (27-6)
The Quakers have one player taller than 6’6”. It’s going to be interesting to see how Penn plans to stop LaMarcus Aldridge. I think it’s safe to say that Aldridge will better his 16 points and 9 rebounds per game.
Pick: Texas 78, Pennsylvania 55

#10 North Carolina State (21-9) vs. #7 California (20-10)
An interesting matchup featuring two coaches that should have been fired a long time ago. There are only 11 coaches from BCS conference schools that have been at the same place longer than 10 years. Herb Sendek and Ben Braun are two of them (Jim Boeheim, Jim Calhoun, Ratface, Gary Williams, Tom Izzo, Lute Olsen, Kelvin Sampson, Tubby Smith and Colorado’s Ricardo Patton). Other than Patton, only Sendek and Braun haven’t earned their tenures. And Patton at least produced Chauncey Billups. Sendek should have been canned a long time ago. Losing here, which would be the fifth straight loss for State, would almost certainly do the trick. You have to figure that Cal is going to struggle against the Princeton offense for at least a half, but Herby will find a way to screw it up…he always does.
Pick: California 72, NC State 66

Oakland Region

Dallas, TX
American Airlines Center
#16 Oral Roberts (21-11) vs. #1 Memphis (30-3)
Why do I keep hearing that ORU is going to win this game? I’m not even going to dignify this crap with a response to the idiots that think the Eagles can beat Memphis. They have a couple of nice players in Caleb Green and Larry Owens, but it’s not going to happen.
Pick: Memphis 84, Oral Roberts 66

#9 Bucknell (26-4) vs. #8 Arkansas (22-9)
I think it’s safe to say that basically everyone outside of Arkansas and this site have penciled Bucknell into the second round. But the Hogs are playing real well right now. And I think the Bison are more of a fluke than people are expecting. Sure, their win over Kansas last year was great and equally unexpected. Bucknell doesn’t have a player that can keep up with Ronnie Brewer. The Razorbacks have been playing solid basketball for the past month to make their push for an at-large bid, and I like them to win one game against the vastly overseeded Bison. Bucknell’s 15 minutes are up.
Pick: Arkansas 68, Bucknell 57

Auburn Hills, MI
Palace at Auburn Hills
#13 Bradley (20-10) vs. #4 Kansas (25-7)
Like Seton Hall, Bradley’s inclusion in the field of 65 is a disgrace. After the Braves lose here, they should become the new poster boys for any future selection committee considering taking a mid-major team that placed sixth in their conference. I’ve seen them play twice. Not only did they not look good at all, but also played a completely bland and boring brand of basketball while stinking up the joint. The Braves best player is 7’0” center Patrick O’Bryant. He was suspended for eight games early in the year for taking money from a booster. Here’s the sad part. The committee considered his suspension as the reason that Bradley struggled in the early going (against poor competition by the way). His suspension actually helped Bradley make the tourney. If O’Bryant had been playing in losses to Drake and Loyola-Chicago, BU wouldn’t have even been considered. The committee saw that the Braves got hot in February, figured O’Bryant had to be the reason, and allowed BU into the NCAA’s based on one month’s performance. A criminal act should not allow a team into the field of 65. It should keep them out. I don’t root for Kansas often, but I will be here.
Pick: Kansas 67, Bradley 49

#12 Kent State (25-8) vs. #5 Pittsburgh (24-7)
I still think the Panthers are frauds. But this Oakland region was so tough to pick with no clear-cut prevailing team, that in the first version of my brackets, I had Pitt in the Final Four. Needless to say, that error was corrected quickly. Pitt is going to run into trouble in this game. Kent State has had seven different players lead them in scoring. So like Pitt, they’re deep. Like Pitt, the team has a lot of experience. The Flashes even shoot the ball better than Pitt. If it wasn’t for the overwhelming advantage the Panthers possess inside with Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall, I would have gone with KSU. Maybe the Golden Flashes have a 2002 run in them.
Pick: Pittsburgh 65, Kent State 63

2006 NCAA Tournament: Everyone Into The Pool!

Don’t know who to pick? I got you covered over the next few days.

There are two ways to predict the tournament games. The most common, and the one used in office pools and online challenges, is the locked bracket. You make all your picks at once and you have up until the first game to change it. After that, if your championship team loses in the first round, you are pretty much screwed. You keep track of those using a point system (1 point for a first round win, 2 points for a second round win, etc…). I will put in my locked bracket in a minute.

However, I also want to predict and talk about each game. So before each round of action, I analyze the games for that upcoming day. Even if I didn’t have either team in my locked bracket, I will make new predictions for each round. For example, I have LSU and Texas A&M advancing to the second round. If LSU and A&M lose in the first round, it will hurt my locked bracket for the rest of the tournament (Not only would I lose two points for getting the games wrong, but I would not be able to pick up two points for the next round). In the “refreshing bracket”, I would be charged for the two losses by LSU and A&M. However, I would be able to make a new prediction on the second round game between Syracuse and Iona that I wouldn’t be able to make if the bracket was locked. I’ll keep track of those picks using a win/loss record. By the way, my final win/loss record for ACC games this year was 63-29.

The locked bracket is much harder to predict than the refresh bracket. You can refer back to this link to see my locked bracket. I’ll even post the link again throughout the tournament so you can see my progress. Then you’ll see my predictions for the first round games for Thursday, which will be identical to the first round picks in the locked bracket (but with analysis). The difference between the locked and refresh brackets will become more obvious on Saturday. Friday’s games will be predicted tomorrow. Enjoy.

THIS IS THE LOCKED BRACKET LINK

I really wanted to pick more first round upsets, but I just didn’t see that many. The bigger surprises may come in the second round. Here are Thursday’s picks.

Washington DC Region

San Diego, CA
Cox Arena
#13 Air Force (24-6) vs. #4 Illinois (25-6)
I’m puzzled as to why the Illini were given a four seed. They played in the somewhat competitive Big 10, earned their fair share of great conference wins, and only suffered one bad loss (Penn State at home). This is more like a three seed to me. The Falcons have been a consistent team the entire season, only once losing two games in a row. They have the #1 scoring defense in the nation, surrendering only 53.8 points a game. Still, I can’t ignore the Academy’s poor outside shooting and lack of height. Illinois uses five players over 6’8”, while Air Force uses only two. In an ugly defensive battle, height, not guard play, will be the determining factor.
Pick: Illinois 67, Air Force 56


After the tournament, Bruce Weber and Bruce Pearl will battle it out to see who is more Bruce-ier and who looks worse in an orange blazer. Personally, I think we're all losers here.

#12 Utah State (23-8) vs. Washington (24-6)
I find it hilarious how all these ESPN analysts blast the committee for selecting Utah State, then minutes later, make the Aggies one of the teams they expect to pull an upset in the first round. Sounds hypocritical to me. The Aggies can score with any team. It may surprise you to know that four of their players average around 10 points or more a game. Their problem is lack of depth. They only play seven guys. Now I’m not saying USU can’t pull rank here, but don’t look for them to win more than one game. I know I’m not.
Pick: Washington 78, Utah State 70

Greensboro, NC
Greensboro Coliseum
#15 Winthrop (23-7) vs. #2 Tennessee (21-7)
If there is a chance for a 15 seed to shock brackets, it’s here. I actually know quite a few friends, who know college basketball, that are taking the chance and actually putting Winthrop into the second round. Now I know that the Vols don’t deserve the 2 seed they’ve been given, but let’s not go crazy here.
Pick: Tennessee 77, Winthrop 63

#10 Seton Hall (18-11) vs. #7 Wichita State (24-8)
If you’ve been reading my posts from the last few weeks (all five of you), then you know that I have absolutely no respect for Seton Hall. Or for the state of New Jersey for that matter. They shouldn’t be here. They won’t be here for long. The Shockers aren’t your typical mid-major. They have two players who have tournament experience with other teams before transferring to WSU. Kyle Wilson (Illinois), the starting forward averaging 11 points a game, and Karon Bradley (Marquette during the Dwayne Wade run), a key reserve who plays 22 minutes off the bench, both have legit tournament knowledge and playing time. However, the player to remember is 6’10” senior Paul Miller. Miller (13 ppg, 6.5 rbp, 52% FG) is the key for WSU. In my bracket, I have WSU meeting up with Tyler Hansbrough and UNC. That should be a great matchup. As for the Hall…
Pick: Wichita State 71, Seton Hall 63

Minneapolis Regional

Salt Lake City, UT
Jon M. Huntsman Center
#13 Pacific (24-7) vs. #4 Boston College (26-7)
As you see above, I have BC in my Final Four. And I consider this a reach pick, even though BC is a four seed. Usually, the NCAA tournament is built for great guard oriented teams. But BC, as most know by now, has a dominant frontline coupled with a consistent, but not special, backcourt. The game that worries me is this one right here. I like BC in matchups against small and poor shooting Nevada, the gimmick offense of Villanova, and the defensive-minded Ohio State. Pacific is a good team from an ignored conference. They aren’t deep, but they are balanced. Their backcourt tandem of Johnny Gray and Mike Webb combine for 25 points a game. They also have four players who are 6’7” or taller to throw at Craig Smith, Jared Dudley, Sean Marshall and Sean Williams. Christian Maraker, a 6’9” senior from Sweden, is the real deal. The Big West player of the year averaged 17.2 ppg and 9 rbp. Boston College cannot afford to get into a three-point shooting contest against Gray and Webb (both shoot over 40%), but they also have to focus on stopping Maraker. Pacific reminds me a lot of Vermont from last year, except the Tigers score more. If BC survives, and I believe they will, they should make it to Indianapolis. But I’m very nervous.
Pick: Boston College 81, Pacific 74

#12 Montana (23-6) vs. #5 Nevada (27-5)
I’ve actually watched both of these teams play three times this season. I think Montana, against any of the other five seeds, would win. They just don’t have an answer for Nick Fazekas (22 ppg, 10.3 rbp). The Grizzlies do score 80 points a game and shoot 49.9% from the field (fifth best nationally), which makes them a very dangerous team. The Wolf Pack, a team that made the Sweet 16 two years ago (and I called it), are a great defensive team. They are in the top 15 in scoring defense and opponents shooting percentage. They are more balanced and deeper than Montana. Fazekas is the difference here.
Pick: Nevada 74, Montana 71

Jacksonville, FL
Veterans Memorial Arena
#14 South Alabama (24-6) vs. #3 Florida (27-6)
The Gators were extremely lucky to earn a 3-seed. I would have taken any of the 13’s over UF had they been a 4. But even the Choking Billy won’t screw this one up. Don’t worry, the UF collapse is only a couple of days away. Look for a close game.
Pick: Florida 72, South Alabama 67


Do you really want your bracket in the hands of a used car salesman?

#11 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (21-8) vs. #6 Oklahoma (20-8)
A few weeks ago, before BC and Ohio State got hot, I said the three darkhorse Final Four teams were BC, OSU and Oklahoma. Naturally, the NCAA puts all three in the same bracket. So even if I was right, only one of them will be going to Indy. Kelvin Sampson’s team, which has largely been a disappointment this season, is still a solid nine-deep squad with big bodies all over the court. If they manage to escape here, they have the depth to give other teams, especially Florida, some real problems. To be honest, I haven’t seen one minute of a UWM game this year. I know the Panthers come from the usually tough Horizon League, which was down this season. They appear to be balanced among the starting five. All five starters are seniors who are at least 22 years old. So that’s good. Four of them started on last year’s Sweet 16 team. That’s good too. The Panthers do have one of the weakest benches in the tournament and the nation, with only one player scoring more than two points a game. That’s bad.
Pick: Oklahoma 68, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 62

Atlanta Region

Greensboro, NC
Greensboro Coliseum
#16 Southern (19-12) vs. #1 Duke (30-3)
I’m not going to waste much time on the 1 vs. 16 games. I’ll tell you why Duke won’t make it to Indianapolis on Saturday (unless everyone prays really hard and Southern pulls off the biggest miracle this side of Moses vs. the Red Sea).
Pick: Duke 88, Southern 61

#9 UNC-Wilmington (25-7) vs. #8 George Washington (26-2)
By far the toughest Thursday game to pick. Wilmington makes their first trip back to the NCAA’s since 2003. That year, if you recall, Maryland put away the Seahawks rather handedly in the first round. And by “put away” I mean let UNCW hang around for 40 minutes, and by “rather handedly” I mean beat them with a desperation heave from Drew Nicholas while Gary Williams was in death-com four on the sideline. Anyway, I think even without Pops Mensah-Bonsu, the Colonials are going to come out for one game and play the disrespect card. Without Pops, GW does lack a formidable inside game. But the Seahawks don’t have one either. If GW is able to play their run-and-gun style, they get to stay in Greensboro for another two days.
Pick: George Washington 80, UNC-Wilmington 73

Jacksonville, FL
Veterans Memorial Arena
#13 Iona (23-7) vs. #4 Louisiana State (23-8)
Despite having four players that are taller than 6’8”, the Gaels rely on their two outside scorers for the bulk of their points. Steve Burtt and Ricky Soliver put in more than 40 ppg combined. The Iona big men play more like Travis Garrison than Tyler Hansbrough. Which could present a problem for the Gaels as they face a LSU team with two of the more talented young forwards in the country. Glen “Big Baby” Davis (His actual nickname, I’m not making fun of him, the dude is huge and would kill me) and freshman Tyrus Thomas led the Bayou Bengals to a SEC regular season title. Davis, a 6’9” 310 pound version of Baby Shaq, has been dealing with a variety of injuries. How far LSU goes will depend on his health. Even without Davis at 100%, Tyrus and senior point guard Darrel Mitchell (17.6 ppg, 4.6 apg) should be enough to get LSU comfortably by Iona.
Pick: LSU 77, Iona 60

#12 Texas A&M (21-8) vs. #5 Syracuse (23-11)
As you’ve previously read, I have been extolling the virtues of the Aggies for some time now. I can’t believe that there are some that question the validity of this team in the NCAA tournament. Is it possible that Aggies go out and lay an egg? Absolutely. They’ve done so a few times this season. But so has Syracuse. It is my belief that A&M will prove their worthiness to the doubters in this one. Syracuse reminds me a lot of the 2004 Maryland team. Like ’04 Maryland, up to the conference tournament, Syracuse wouldn’t have qualified for the NCAA’s. Like Maryland, the ‘Cuse got hot and played close, thrilling games against the better teams in their conference tourney. Like Maryland, the Orange came out of nowhere to win the whole thing and get an automatic bid. Like Maryland, it took a well-known guard to spark the team to victory (John Gilchrist = Gerry McNamara). And like Maryland, Syracuse was then overseeded by the tournament committee based on a weeks worth of games. You think the similarities stop there? The ’04 Terps were then sent to Denver to take on the 13th seeded UTEP Miners. The Miners were a hard-nosed, defensively sound, offensively impaired (at times) team that made a late season run of their own just to get in the tournament. The Billy Gillespie-coached Miners gave the Terps all they could handle; as a last second three to tie the game was blocked by Jamar Smith and Maryland hung on to win 86-83. The Terps, in a bit of eerie coincidence, were then knocked off by Syracuse in the second round. The ’06 Orange, after being overseeded based on a few games against mostly disinterested Big East clubs, take on the 12th seeded Aggies. The Aggies are a hard-nosed, defensively sound and offensively impaired team that made a late season run just to get an at-large bid for the tournament. The head coach of A&M you ask? The same Billy Gillespie that gave Gary’s team fits two years ago. If it wasn’t for a couple of missed baskets down the stretch by UTEP two tournaments ago, the Miners would have won. Gillespie has a better team this time around, he went against better conference competition this season than UTEP did in ’04 and he’s facing an exhausted team that revolves around one player (unlike Maryland which featured both Gilchrist and Smith). Gillespie gets his revenge.
Pick: Texas A&M 86, Syracuse 83


Don't know who Joseph Jones is? Maybe you should learn.

Oakland Region

Salt Lake City, UT
Jon M. Huntsman Center
#14 Xavier (21-10) vs. #3 Gonzaga (27-3)
For the last three days, I’ve gone back and forth on Gonzaga. I can’t get a hold on this team. Every tournament in years past, I’ve watched as numerous fools made the mistake of moving the Zags too far. It happens all the time with the dopes on ESPN (Paging Doug Gottlieb, who’s at it again with Pittsburgh in the Final Four…as if Gonzaga didn’t choke enough). But there just isn’t a dominant team in this region. This could be the Bulldogs’ year. They’ve got two outstanding players. They have seniors and juniors all over the place. They’re deeper than most teams from power conferences. Why not? Well, because I’m not crazy, that’s why. Gonzaga does this every year. I can see them winning three games at the most, but no more. As the three seed, they are going to be in too many close contests. Putting them in the Elite 8 is a stretch. But I’ll take the risk. The committee certainly did them no favors with the first round draw against underseeded Xavier, but the Zags are in a wide-open bracket. Any one of six or seven teams could come out of Oakland, and Gonzaga has just as good a chance as Memphis, Pitt, UCLA, Kansas and Marquette. If I, or if you, correctly pick the Final Four team out of this region, then expect to win the tournament pool
Pick: Gonzaga 81, Xavier 67


Adam Morrison playing basketball, then moonlighting as the lead singer of the White Stripes.

#11 San Diego State (24-8) at #6 Indiana (18-11)
One of my bracket rules is this: if there are two teams or more from the Mountain West Conference, I must pick one of them to advance. People underestimate the MWC every season, even years like this when the conference is down. Other than the Big Six conferences, the MWC is the most talented and competitive conference on average. Since I don’t think Air Force has enough to stay with Illinois, then by the enforcement of my rule, I must pick the Aztecs to get past the lame duck Indiana Non-Fightin’ Davises.
Pick: San Diego State 66, Indiana 61

San Diego, CA
Cox Arena
#15 Belmont (20-10) vs. #2 UCLA (27-6)
UCLA is a team that relies on one funny looking sophomore, lacks experience, has little depth and has big men that are super-stiffs. So this is the trendy Final Four pick from Oakland? I mean, it could happen. Have you seen the rest of this region? As I said before, this quarter of the bracket is unpredictable. Ben Howland has done a good job turning around Steve Lavin’s mess. The Bruins should be a very good team, and a much more dangerous team, next year. I just don’t see a very young UCLA squad that has only averaged 63 points in their last five games hanging with some of the teams here. However, I don’t think there is much of a chance for Westwood’s Bruins to fall to the Bruins of Belmont.
Pick: UCLA 87, Belmont 68

#10 Alabama (17-12) vs. #7 Marquette (20-10)
The Crimson Tide are a two-dimensional team. They need both guard Ronnie Steele (13.8 ppg, 4.1 apg) and center Jermareo Davidson (14.1 ppg, 9 rbp) to be at the top of their game or they don’t have a chance. Many times, both played well, as Alabama beat Florida, Tennessee and LSU this season. However, many times neither played well as the Tide rolled out against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Marquette is a more balanced team, with a player in Steve Novak that can carry a team on his back for a few games. The 6’10” senior shoots well outside (45.3% 3 pt. FG), is a good defensive rebounder and shoot lights out from the free throw line (97.3%!!!). Even if Novak is contained, the Golden Eagles still have three terrific freshmen in Dominic James, Jerel McNeal and sixth-man Wesley Matthews that can score from the outside at will. The interior scoring big man is absent from Marquette, but they do rebound well. The Tide won’t be able to score with the Eagles.
Pick: Marquette 77, Alabama 64