2006 NCAA Tournament: Atlanta/Oakland Regional Finals

Any more of my picks going to choke away games? I would really like to know ahead of time if possible. Let me say, if Gonzaga and BC had won, like they should have, I would be the run away leader in my pool right now. As it stands, I’m going to need UConn to win out and Memphis to beat UCLA today to keep me near the top and within striking distance of that cash.

Enough about my pool. That’s not why you came (and if it is, why would care that much). I went 1-3 last night thanks to Boston College’s swoon and Wichita State deciding not to show up at all. Seriously, I haven’t seen that many missed three pointers since JJ Redick’s last game. HA! Hey Backne, enjoying the view from your couch? Anyone else wonder if Morrison and Backne had one of those late night Halo 2 sessions to ease their pain and cry themselves to sleep? Oh, that stuff is priceless. Anyway, my record is now 36-20 for the tournament, and Derek Raivio (See Derek. See Derek turn the ball over. Turnover, Derek, turnover.) and Al Skinner are solely to blame for this average record.

Just two games today, and it will be pretty short because I just talked about these four teams a couple of days ago.



#4 Louisiana State Tigers (26-8) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (30-6)
Atlanta Regional Final
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA

LSU beat #13 Iona, #12 Texas A&M, #1 Duke
Texas beat #15 Penn, #10 NC State, #6 WVU

So LSU has earned a spot right at the top of The Predictor’s list of favorite teams. I’m sure a lot of people will be rooting for the Bengals after their win over the disgusting program that continues to infect college basketball. Texas, on the other hand, ended the season of the massively overrated Fightin’ Hicks, allowing the ‘Queers to go home to their trailors early, burn their couches, get more tattoos and get married at a high school gymnasium to their high school sweetheart/aunt/cousin.

Duke, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, George Washington and Tennessee. Remember during the season when I said these five teams were being overrated by everyone, and none of them would reach the Final Four. Guess who’s looking pretty good now! (pay no attention to the Oklahoma is a sleeper pick.) In conclusion, big thanks to Texas and LSU for making me seem a little bit smarter than I actually am.

Unlike Duke, who everyone knew couldn’t hang with athletic big men, Texas can actually play against Big Baby and Tyrus Thomas. However, if guys like Darrel Mitchell, Tasmin Mitchell and Garrett Temple can play like they did against the Dookies, then they’ll have a real shot against the Horns. Texas’ backcourt, if you ignore Kenton Paulino’s last second shot, has been struggling in the tournament. The combination of Paulino, Gibson and Abrams combined for only 20 points on 7 for 27 shooting against the Hillbillies. They didn’t do much better against Herby and the Pack in round two. The Horns need more production for the backcourt, and if they don’t get it, it may open the door for a less talented Tigers team to sneak up and win this one.


While this picture of Tasmin Mitchell may not add anything, it does give everyone another opportunity to see Backne sulking in the background. That's good, isn't it?

The strength of the offense for both teams is the interior game. But LSU’s inside guys aren’t quite all that analysts make them out to be. LSU’s three main big men (Davis, Thomas and T.Mitchell) managed to score a solid 35 points against Duke. However, the three of them combined to shoot 11 for 27, which is not much better than the Texas guards, but the shots are coming much closer to the hoop. The only reason LSU was able to appear to own the inside game was because they were able to grab second and third chance opportunities against Sheldon Williams, his enormous forehead and the smaller and rebounding challenged Dookies. Against Texas, if the three forwards shoot that poorly, they are going to get blown out. The Tigers shouldn’t get too many second opportunities against the taller and more physical Longhorns. LaMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker, on the other hand, scored 41 points on 16 for 26 shooting for Texas against the similarly rebounding challenged Mountaineers. I like that shooting percentage a lot better.


LaMarcus Aldridge improving his NBA draft status.

Neither team is exceptionally deep, which is important when you are playing your second game in less than 48 hours. The guard play, and outside shooting, should suffer because of fatigue and lack of bench players. So the team with the best inside game should win. I think Texas nudges out this one. Which means they’ll probably give the game away in the last minute.
Pick: Texas 74, LSU 67




#2 UCLA Bruins (27-6) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (30-3)
Oakland Regional Final
Oakland Arena – Oakland, CA

UCLA beat #15 Belmont, #10 Alabama, #3 Gonzaga
Memphis beat #16 Oral Roberts, #9 Bucknell, #13 Bradley
Memphis beat UCLA 88-80 in NYC on 11/23

John Calipari and Phi Slamma Jamma ver 2.0 scored their third straight 16-point victory in the tournament against overmatched Bradley. No team has looked better than the Tigers so far, and no team remaining has played an easier slate of opponents to reach the Elite 8. I’ll say this about Memphis; at least they’re not fooling around with lesser opponents like UConn or Boston College. The wins themselves aren’t impressive, but the fact they are crushing these teams is important. And it makes this game a whole lot more interesting.

The Bruins have been playing with house money since slipping by Alabama in the second round, a game they probably should have lost if Ronnie Steele didn’t go cold in the final two minutes. Then the Bruins, left for dead by The Predictor with 10 minutes to go in their game against Gonzaga, stormed back after Derek Raivio forgot to pass the basketball to members of his own team. So UCLA has moved on in the tournament in a complete contrast from Memphis. If you look at the scores and the stats, the Bruins have not been impressive in winning, but what has been impressive is that they’re winning at all against two very good teams.


UCLA has been living the charmed life...but how much longer can this last?

The two teams played at Madison Square Garden in late November, with Memphis prevailing. I’m not going to go in depth about this game, since it was basically a full season ago. Memphis was much younger then and UCLA was much healthier. The Bruins were never in the game until a late surge made the game look respectable. Both teams, including the Bruins despite their injuries, have improved since that game.

For the third straight game, the Tigers are going to face a defense-oriented team with fewer natural athletes and much slower players. But the defense for UCLA is better than most Memphis has faced all season in Conference USA and the tournament so far. Even though UCLA’s defense did looked average at times against the Zags.

UCLA’s defense did have the benefit in playing in a weak Pac-10 Conference. Most teams in the Pac-10 have two, maybe three offensive threats at best. There are no complete teams out West other than recently eliminated Washington. Their opponents in the last two rounds, while very good teams, were not complete offensive teams. Alabama’s offense revolved around Steele, and Gonzaga’s obviously revolved around Morrison. With Memphis, UCLA is going to face the most explosive offense they’ve seen all year, and the Tigers are clicking right now. Aaron Afflalo should have a field day for the Bruins, as there is no natural defensive matchup for Memphis to throw at him. But the Tigers should be able to keep pace with his scoring. Like Bradley on Thursday, I don’t think UCLA has the height or the speed to stop Rodney Carney, Shawne Williams and Robert Dozier.


Who guards Carney tonight? One of UCLA's slow big men? I'd hope not.

X-factor in this one should be Memphis’ Chris Douglas-Roberts. Cedric Bozeman will be in charge of sticking him, and he didn’t do a great job with the three different Gonzaga players that he tried following around the court on Thursday. Memphis punches a ticket for Atlanta, unless they revert back to the team that does nothing but jack up threes.
Pick: Memphis 81, UCLA 71