2006 NCAA Tournament: Everyone Into The Pool!

Don’t know who to pick? I got you covered over the next few days.

There are two ways to predict the tournament games. The most common, and the one used in office pools and online challenges, is the locked bracket. You make all your picks at once and you have up until the first game to change it. After that, if your championship team loses in the first round, you are pretty much screwed. You keep track of those using a point system (1 point for a first round win, 2 points for a second round win, etc…). I will put in my locked bracket in a minute.

However, I also want to predict and talk about each game. So before each round of action, I analyze the games for that upcoming day. Even if I didn’t have either team in my locked bracket, I will make new predictions for each round. For example, I have LSU and Texas A&M advancing to the second round. If LSU and A&M lose in the first round, it will hurt my locked bracket for the rest of the tournament (Not only would I lose two points for getting the games wrong, but I would not be able to pick up two points for the next round). In the “refreshing bracket”, I would be charged for the two losses by LSU and A&M. However, I would be able to make a new prediction on the second round game between Syracuse and Iona that I wouldn’t be able to make if the bracket was locked. I’ll keep track of those picks using a win/loss record. By the way, my final win/loss record for ACC games this year was 63-29.

The locked bracket is much harder to predict than the refresh bracket. You can refer back to this link to see my locked bracket. I’ll even post the link again throughout the tournament so you can see my progress. Then you’ll see my predictions for the first round games for Thursday, which will be identical to the first round picks in the locked bracket (but with analysis). The difference between the locked and refresh brackets will become more obvious on Saturday. Friday’s games will be predicted tomorrow. Enjoy.

THIS IS THE LOCKED BRACKET LINK

I really wanted to pick more first round upsets, but I just didn’t see that many. The bigger surprises may come in the second round. Here are Thursday’s picks.

Washington DC Region

San Diego, CA
Cox Arena
#13 Air Force (24-6) vs. #4 Illinois (25-6)
I’m puzzled as to why the Illini were given a four seed. They played in the somewhat competitive Big 10, earned their fair share of great conference wins, and only suffered one bad loss (Penn State at home). This is more like a three seed to me. The Falcons have been a consistent team the entire season, only once losing two games in a row. They have the #1 scoring defense in the nation, surrendering only 53.8 points a game. Still, I can’t ignore the Academy’s poor outside shooting and lack of height. Illinois uses five players over 6’8”, while Air Force uses only two. In an ugly defensive battle, height, not guard play, will be the determining factor.
Pick: Illinois 67, Air Force 56


After the tournament, Bruce Weber and Bruce Pearl will battle it out to see who is more Bruce-ier and who looks worse in an orange blazer. Personally, I think we're all losers here.

#12 Utah State (23-8) vs. Washington (24-6)
I find it hilarious how all these ESPN analysts blast the committee for selecting Utah State, then minutes later, make the Aggies one of the teams they expect to pull an upset in the first round. Sounds hypocritical to me. The Aggies can score with any team. It may surprise you to know that four of their players average around 10 points or more a game. Their problem is lack of depth. They only play seven guys. Now I’m not saying USU can’t pull rank here, but don’t look for them to win more than one game. I know I’m not.
Pick: Washington 78, Utah State 70

Greensboro, NC
Greensboro Coliseum
#15 Winthrop (23-7) vs. #2 Tennessee (21-7)
If there is a chance for a 15 seed to shock brackets, it’s here. I actually know quite a few friends, who know college basketball, that are taking the chance and actually putting Winthrop into the second round. Now I know that the Vols don’t deserve the 2 seed they’ve been given, but let’s not go crazy here.
Pick: Tennessee 77, Winthrop 63

#10 Seton Hall (18-11) vs. #7 Wichita State (24-8)
If you’ve been reading my posts from the last few weeks (all five of you), then you know that I have absolutely no respect for Seton Hall. Or for the state of New Jersey for that matter. They shouldn’t be here. They won’t be here for long. The Shockers aren’t your typical mid-major. They have two players who have tournament experience with other teams before transferring to WSU. Kyle Wilson (Illinois), the starting forward averaging 11 points a game, and Karon Bradley (Marquette during the Dwayne Wade run), a key reserve who plays 22 minutes off the bench, both have legit tournament knowledge and playing time. However, the player to remember is 6’10” senior Paul Miller. Miller (13 ppg, 6.5 rbp, 52% FG) is the key for WSU. In my bracket, I have WSU meeting up with Tyler Hansbrough and UNC. That should be a great matchup. As for the Hall…
Pick: Wichita State 71, Seton Hall 63

Minneapolis Regional

Salt Lake City, UT
Jon M. Huntsman Center
#13 Pacific (24-7) vs. #4 Boston College (26-7)
As you see above, I have BC in my Final Four. And I consider this a reach pick, even though BC is a four seed. Usually, the NCAA tournament is built for great guard oriented teams. But BC, as most know by now, has a dominant frontline coupled with a consistent, but not special, backcourt. The game that worries me is this one right here. I like BC in matchups against small and poor shooting Nevada, the gimmick offense of Villanova, and the defensive-minded Ohio State. Pacific is a good team from an ignored conference. They aren’t deep, but they are balanced. Their backcourt tandem of Johnny Gray and Mike Webb combine for 25 points a game. They also have four players who are 6’7” or taller to throw at Craig Smith, Jared Dudley, Sean Marshall and Sean Williams. Christian Maraker, a 6’9” senior from Sweden, is the real deal. The Big West player of the year averaged 17.2 ppg and 9 rbp. Boston College cannot afford to get into a three-point shooting contest against Gray and Webb (both shoot over 40%), but they also have to focus on stopping Maraker. Pacific reminds me a lot of Vermont from last year, except the Tigers score more. If BC survives, and I believe they will, they should make it to Indianapolis. But I’m very nervous.
Pick: Boston College 81, Pacific 74

#12 Montana (23-6) vs. #5 Nevada (27-5)
I’ve actually watched both of these teams play three times this season. I think Montana, against any of the other five seeds, would win. They just don’t have an answer for Nick Fazekas (22 ppg, 10.3 rbp). The Grizzlies do score 80 points a game and shoot 49.9% from the field (fifth best nationally), which makes them a very dangerous team. The Wolf Pack, a team that made the Sweet 16 two years ago (and I called it), are a great defensive team. They are in the top 15 in scoring defense and opponents shooting percentage. They are more balanced and deeper than Montana. Fazekas is the difference here.
Pick: Nevada 74, Montana 71

Jacksonville, FL
Veterans Memorial Arena
#14 South Alabama (24-6) vs. #3 Florida (27-6)
The Gators were extremely lucky to earn a 3-seed. I would have taken any of the 13’s over UF had they been a 4. But even the Choking Billy won’t screw this one up. Don’t worry, the UF collapse is only a couple of days away. Look for a close game.
Pick: Florida 72, South Alabama 67


Do you really want your bracket in the hands of a used car salesman?

#11 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (21-8) vs. #6 Oklahoma (20-8)
A few weeks ago, before BC and Ohio State got hot, I said the three darkhorse Final Four teams were BC, OSU and Oklahoma. Naturally, the NCAA puts all three in the same bracket. So even if I was right, only one of them will be going to Indy. Kelvin Sampson’s team, which has largely been a disappointment this season, is still a solid nine-deep squad with big bodies all over the court. If they manage to escape here, they have the depth to give other teams, especially Florida, some real problems. To be honest, I haven’t seen one minute of a UWM game this year. I know the Panthers come from the usually tough Horizon League, which was down this season. They appear to be balanced among the starting five. All five starters are seniors who are at least 22 years old. So that’s good. Four of them started on last year’s Sweet 16 team. That’s good too. The Panthers do have one of the weakest benches in the tournament and the nation, with only one player scoring more than two points a game. That’s bad.
Pick: Oklahoma 68, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 62

Atlanta Region

Greensboro, NC
Greensboro Coliseum
#16 Southern (19-12) vs. #1 Duke (30-3)
I’m not going to waste much time on the 1 vs. 16 games. I’ll tell you why Duke won’t make it to Indianapolis on Saturday (unless everyone prays really hard and Southern pulls off the biggest miracle this side of Moses vs. the Red Sea).
Pick: Duke 88, Southern 61

#9 UNC-Wilmington (25-7) vs. #8 George Washington (26-2)
By far the toughest Thursday game to pick. Wilmington makes their first trip back to the NCAA’s since 2003. That year, if you recall, Maryland put away the Seahawks rather handedly in the first round. And by “put away” I mean let UNCW hang around for 40 minutes, and by “rather handedly” I mean beat them with a desperation heave from Drew Nicholas while Gary Williams was in death-com four on the sideline. Anyway, I think even without Pops Mensah-Bonsu, the Colonials are going to come out for one game and play the disrespect card. Without Pops, GW does lack a formidable inside game. But the Seahawks don’t have one either. If GW is able to play their run-and-gun style, they get to stay in Greensboro for another two days.
Pick: George Washington 80, UNC-Wilmington 73

Jacksonville, FL
Veterans Memorial Arena
#13 Iona (23-7) vs. #4 Louisiana State (23-8)
Despite having four players that are taller than 6’8”, the Gaels rely on their two outside scorers for the bulk of their points. Steve Burtt and Ricky Soliver put in more than 40 ppg combined. The Iona big men play more like Travis Garrison than Tyler Hansbrough. Which could present a problem for the Gaels as they face a LSU team with two of the more talented young forwards in the country. Glen “Big Baby” Davis (His actual nickname, I’m not making fun of him, the dude is huge and would kill me) and freshman Tyrus Thomas led the Bayou Bengals to a SEC regular season title. Davis, a 6’9” 310 pound version of Baby Shaq, has been dealing with a variety of injuries. How far LSU goes will depend on his health. Even without Davis at 100%, Tyrus and senior point guard Darrel Mitchell (17.6 ppg, 4.6 apg) should be enough to get LSU comfortably by Iona.
Pick: LSU 77, Iona 60

#12 Texas A&M (21-8) vs. #5 Syracuse (23-11)
As you’ve previously read, I have been extolling the virtues of the Aggies for some time now. I can’t believe that there are some that question the validity of this team in the NCAA tournament. Is it possible that Aggies go out and lay an egg? Absolutely. They’ve done so a few times this season. But so has Syracuse. It is my belief that A&M will prove their worthiness to the doubters in this one. Syracuse reminds me a lot of the 2004 Maryland team. Like ’04 Maryland, up to the conference tournament, Syracuse wouldn’t have qualified for the NCAA’s. Like Maryland, the ‘Cuse got hot and played close, thrilling games against the better teams in their conference tourney. Like Maryland, the Orange came out of nowhere to win the whole thing and get an automatic bid. Like Maryland, it took a well-known guard to spark the team to victory (John Gilchrist = Gerry McNamara). And like Maryland, Syracuse was then overseeded by the tournament committee based on a weeks worth of games. You think the similarities stop there? The ’04 Terps were then sent to Denver to take on the 13th seeded UTEP Miners. The Miners were a hard-nosed, defensively sound, offensively impaired (at times) team that made a late season run of their own just to get in the tournament. The Billy Gillespie-coached Miners gave the Terps all they could handle; as a last second three to tie the game was blocked by Jamar Smith and Maryland hung on to win 86-83. The Terps, in a bit of eerie coincidence, were then knocked off by Syracuse in the second round. The ’06 Orange, after being overseeded based on a few games against mostly disinterested Big East clubs, take on the 12th seeded Aggies. The Aggies are a hard-nosed, defensively sound and offensively impaired team that made a late season run just to get an at-large bid for the tournament. The head coach of A&M you ask? The same Billy Gillespie that gave Gary’s team fits two years ago. If it wasn’t for a couple of missed baskets down the stretch by UTEP two tournaments ago, the Miners would have won. Gillespie has a better team this time around, he went against better conference competition this season than UTEP did in ’04 and he’s facing an exhausted team that revolves around one player (unlike Maryland which featured both Gilchrist and Smith). Gillespie gets his revenge.
Pick: Texas A&M 86, Syracuse 83


Don't know who Joseph Jones is? Maybe you should learn.

Oakland Region

Salt Lake City, UT
Jon M. Huntsman Center
#14 Xavier (21-10) vs. #3 Gonzaga (27-3)
For the last three days, I’ve gone back and forth on Gonzaga. I can’t get a hold on this team. Every tournament in years past, I’ve watched as numerous fools made the mistake of moving the Zags too far. It happens all the time with the dopes on ESPN (Paging Doug Gottlieb, who’s at it again with Pittsburgh in the Final Four…as if Gonzaga didn’t choke enough). But there just isn’t a dominant team in this region. This could be the Bulldogs’ year. They’ve got two outstanding players. They have seniors and juniors all over the place. They’re deeper than most teams from power conferences. Why not? Well, because I’m not crazy, that’s why. Gonzaga does this every year. I can see them winning three games at the most, but no more. As the three seed, they are going to be in too many close contests. Putting them in the Elite 8 is a stretch. But I’ll take the risk. The committee certainly did them no favors with the first round draw against underseeded Xavier, but the Zags are in a wide-open bracket. Any one of six or seven teams could come out of Oakland, and Gonzaga has just as good a chance as Memphis, Pitt, UCLA, Kansas and Marquette. If I, or if you, correctly pick the Final Four team out of this region, then expect to win the tournament pool
Pick: Gonzaga 81, Xavier 67


Adam Morrison playing basketball, then moonlighting as the lead singer of the White Stripes.

#11 San Diego State (24-8) at #6 Indiana (18-11)
One of my bracket rules is this: if there are two teams or more from the Mountain West Conference, I must pick one of them to advance. People underestimate the MWC every season, even years like this when the conference is down. Other than the Big Six conferences, the MWC is the most talented and competitive conference on average. Since I don’t think Air Force has enough to stay with Illinois, then by the enforcement of my rule, I must pick the Aztecs to get past the lame duck Indiana Non-Fightin’ Davises.
Pick: San Diego State 66, Indiana 61

San Diego, CA
Cox Arena
#15 Belmont (20-10) vs. #2 UCLA (27-6)
UCLA is a team that relies on one funny looking sophomore, lacks experience, has little depth and has big men that are super-stiffs. So this is the trendy Final Four pick from Oakland? I mean, it could happen. Have you seen the rest of this region? As I said before, this quarter of the bracket is unpredictable. Ben Howland has done a good job turning around Steve Lavin’s mess. The Bruins should be a very good team, and a much more dangerous team, next year. I just don’t see a very young UCLA squad that has only averaged 63 points in their last five games hanging with some of the teams here. However, I don’t think there is much of a chance for Westwood’s Bruins to fall to the Bruins of Belmont.
Pick: UCLA 87, Belmont 68

#10 Alabama (17-12) vs. #7 Marquette (20-10)
The Crimson Tide are a two-dimensional team. They need both guard Ronnie Steele (13.8 ppg, 4.1 apg) and center Jermareo Davidson (14.1 ppg, 9 rbp) to be at the top of their game or they don’t have a chance. Many times, both played well, as Alabama beat Florida, Tennessee and LSU this season. However, many times neither played well as the Tide rolled out against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Marquette is a more balanced team, with a player in Steve Novak that can carry a team on his back for a few games. The 6’10” senior shoots well outside (45.3% 3 pt. FG), is a good defensive rebounder and shoot lights out from the free throw line (97.3%!!!). Even if Novak is contained, the Golden Eagles still have three terrific freshmen in Dominic James, Jerel McNeal and sixth-man Wesley Matthews that can score from the outside at will. The interior scoring big man is absent from Marquette, but they do rebound well. The Tide won’t be able to score with the Eagles.
Pick: Marquette 77, Alabama 64