2006 NCAA Tournament: Porn Mustaches, Cousin Lovers and KFC

For the first two rounds, I finished a respectable 33-15 (and to see the ol’ locked bracket, click here). All my Final Four picks are still alive. Six of my Elite 8 teams are here (minus Carolina and Ohio State). And I got 11 out of 16 correctly for the regional semifinals, including a perfect Atlanta bracket. One of my better years so far. Now it gets tough. The difference between Texas and West Virginia isn’t as great as the difference between Texas and Penn. There will be three very interesting games on Thursday. Naturally, I’ll be starting with the game that isn’t.

Oakland Regional
Oakland Arena – Oakland, CA

#13 Bradley (22-10) vs. #1 Memphis (32-3)
The teams did not play this season
Bradley beat #4 Kansas 77-73, #5 Pitt 72-66
Memphis beat #16 Oral Roberts 94-78, #9 Bucknell 72-56
Amazingly, Memphis could become the first team in NCAA history to make the Final Four without playing a team from a power conference (they would have to meet Gonzaga in the next round to accomplish this). So the Conference USA champion, used to playing weaker competition, has the perfect road through Oakland to Indy. In the regional semis, they get Bradley, a team that has used just about all their luck in the first two rounds and should be overmatched at just about every position against Memphis. After which, the Tigers can sit back and watch UCLA and Gonzaga slug it out to see who they play next. Of all the schools left in the tournament, Memphis is best situated to make the Final Four.

To do so, they must find a way to stop the two-headed monster for the Braves. Marcellus Sommerville, Bradley’s 6’7” senior forward, shouldn’t be a problem for the many 6’7”-6’8” athletic forwards that Memphis uses. The real problem for the Tigers is the seven-footer Patrick O’Bryant. This was John Calipari’s fear all season, that the Tigers would run into a true dominant center. Memphis has no true dominant center. With Joey Dorsey, Shawne Williams and Robert Dozier (off the bench), Memphis has three power forwards, but no one with the size or height of O’Bryant. Memphis has not seen a lot of powerful centers, and when they have, they’ve lost (against Duke and Texas). The only decent big man they played all year, and beat, was Gonzaga’s J.P. Batista, who at 6’9”, was hardly a problem for the platoon at power forward.

There is no secret of how Bradley must play to win. Defensively, they must sag and collapse on the Tigers post players. Along with Dorsey and Williams, Memphis has small forward Rodney Carney who can score and board inside with the best of them. The Braves would be wise to play a zone, most likely a 2-3 zone, forcing the streaky-shooting guards to beat you. I’d rather put the game in the hands of Darius Washington at 20 feet away from the hoop than in the hands of Carney, Dorsey and Williams and the second coming of Phi Slamma Jamma. Plus, with Memphis’ transition game, the Tigers are prone to rushing up bad shots from the outside, so a zone for Bradley would only encourage more bad outside shots.

On offense, the Braves guard combo of Daniel Ruffin and Tony Bennett, who despite playing in Oakland, I’m sure left his heart in San Francisco, must look inside to either Sommerville or O’Bryant on every possession. There is no way Bradley will win a three-point shooting, run-and-gun game with Memphis. There is no way the Braves would be within 20. If they slow down the game, feed the ball to the low post, and cut down on Memphis fast breaks by not jacking up bad three-point shots, the Braves have a chance.

Unfortunately for Bradley, I don’t see any of this happening. I see Memphis working the ball inside early and getting either Sommerville or O’Bryant in foul trouble. As the inside opens up, Bradley’s chances of imploring a zone that actually works will decrease. With one, or both of their big men on the bench, and with no way of scoring inside, the three-point shots will not fall for Bradley. The bad three-pointers will lead to Memphis’ transition game, which will lead to a big win for the Tigers.
Pick: Memphis 82, Bradley 67

*THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE NIGHT*
#3 Gonzaga (29-3) vs. #2 UCLA (29-6)
The teams did not play this season
Gonzaga beat #14 Xavier 79-75, #6 Indiana 90-80
UCLA beat #15 Belmont 78-44, #10 Alabama 62-59
This matchup can be summed up in one question: Can UCLA’s solid defense shutdown Gonzaga’s dangerous offense? The Bruins don’t have the ability to score with the Bulldogs, but Gonzaga can’t afford to play a low scoring game with a team that’s defense is twenty times better than theirs.

I think the most telling indication for this game was Gonzaga’s second round win over Indiana. Adam Morrison looked horrible, but for the first time all season, the Zags’ role players stepped up in a game against tough competition. Batista had 20 and 9. Which was no real surprise, since he’s played well all year. But how about Sean Mallon scoring 15? Or struggling Derek Raivio scoring 13, eight of which from the free throw line (which he usually never sees). And who knew that Gonzaga even had bench players? Erroll Knight had 11 and Jeremy Pargo added 10 off the pine. If you told me before the game that Morrison was only going to score 14 points on 5 for 17 shooting, I would have asked you how soon will Digger Phelps’ annual choking-dog Gonzaga rant would start.

The bad sign for UCLA is that with Morrison having an off night, Gonzaga still scored 90 points. And the likelihood of Morrison having two bad games in a row is slim to none. So if the rest of the role players execute in lockstep with the ‘Stache and Batista, this game should be no problem for the Bulldogs.

The Bruins do have the favorable matchup outside. Arron Afflalo and Jordan Farmer should get their points against Raivio, Pargo and Pierre Altidor-Cespedes (why A-C even plays is beyond me, he brings absolutely nothing to the table for Gonzaga). But the frontcourt matchup is overwhelmingly in favor of Gonzaga. I’m assuming that Ben Howland will send Cedric Bozeman to guard Morrison. Despite what I’ve been hearing, Bozeman is one of the Bruins worst defensive players. But there doesn’t appear to be much Howland can do otherwise. Afflalo and Farmer give up way too much size to Morrison and Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute (are you serious with that name?) at 6’7” is too slow and is only a freshman. Morrison averaged 28.4 during the regular season, and I expect him to drop at least that many against the Bruins. Also, look for Mallon to score at least 15 of his own. It should be close, but the Zags are moving on.
Pick: Gonzaga 84, UCLA 76

Atlanta Regional
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA

#4 Louisiana State (25-8) vs. #1 Duke (32-3)
The teams did not play this season
LSU beat #13 Iona 80-64, #12 Texas A&M 58-57
Duke beat #16 Southern 70-54, #8 GW 74-61
Two games into the tournament, and no high seed other than UConn looks as disinterested and average as the Dookies. They allowed Southern to hang around for 25 minutes or so. Then against a GW squad that everyone knew was overrated, even as an eight seed, the Dookies turned in a sloppy performance against the Colonials. By the way, GW played one of its worst games of the season, and still hung around until the middle of the second half. And now the Blow Devils actually have to leave the state of North Carolina for the first time in three weeks. What, the committee couldn’t put the regionals in Raleigh or Charlotte? Luckily for Duke, they get a LSU team that barely escaped Texas A&M and the Fighting Gillespies with a looooooong three pointer from Darrel Mitchell.

I have not seen a lot of LSU this season. I watched their game against A&M. I saw a couple of SEC games as well. I really don’t know what to make of them. They seem to have two great shooters (Darrel and Tasmin Mitchell). They certainly have two of the best post players in the country with Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas. They just don’t impress me. They average nearly 80 points a game, yet seem to be stuck in low scoring and close games every time I see them. They are balanced, with four players scoring over 11 points a game and six players scoring 7 points a game. Yet, despite the seemingly balanced scoring, their offense revolves around Davis (and at 310 pounds, a lot of things revolve around Davis’ gravitational pull). And despite out rebounding opponents by a margin of almost 10 per game, the Tigers didn’t seem to grab any clutch rebounds against the Aggies, allowing Texas A&M to hang in that game much longer than they should have. Add in the fact that LSU really didn’t beat anyone of importance except WVU in the out of conference schedule, and the SEC is almost as overrated as the Big 10, and you’re left wondering how much any of these stats really mean.

So with that in mind, on paper at least, this game actually favors LSU. And I know a lot of people are picking them to pull the upset. The Rapist and New White Stiff Joshlik McRandolph should have all kinds of problems stopping the bigger Davis and the quicker Thomas. I would love to see McRoberts actually try that hook move that he’s perfected, but is never called, against Davis. Big Baby would eat him. Seriously, he would actually eat him. This is a man who once ate an entire family-sized KFC chicken bucket…for a midnight snack! The Rapist has never learned how to guard guys who are both taller and wider than he is, so look for him to pick up some fouls and spend a lot of the first half on the bench, feeding New White Stiff to the wolves and Davis.

Why do I just have the feeling that this is going to be a Backne game? LSU really has no one to guard him. So either LSU will make the mistake that most first-timers against Duke do, which is pay too much attention to Redick while the rest of the supporting cast of nerds get open shots. Or, they will try to stick one of their average defending guards on him, and he’ll go off for 30 or more.

LSU is going to have to hit some threes in this game. They can’t trade layups from Thomas and Davis with Duke’s three-pointers. I just don’t see anyone from the Tigers backcourt stepping up. LSU is going to try to play slowdown offense to work the ball inside, which will conversely help the fatigue factor for Ratface’s bunch (and for those who don’t think that Duke is showing signs of tiring, the first two games, especially the way that Southern hung in the game, are clear signs of fatigue). What we can hope for is close, tough and physical game that wears the Dookies out for the regional final against either West Virginia or Texas. I just don’t see LSU pulling this one out. Unless Davis gets really hungry.
Pick: Duke 74, LSU 69

#6 West Virginia (22-10) vs. #2 Texas (29-6)
Texas defeated WVU 76-75 in Kansas City on 11/21
WVU beat #11 S. Illinois 64-46, #14 N’Western St. 67-54
Texas beat #15 Penn 60-52, #10 NC State 75-54
Because the first game between these two was so long ago, and was so close, the final outcome of the contest really doesn’t mean much now. However, the trends and the way the players performed still have some meaning. Here is what I gathered from that game and the rest of the season. West Virginia, for the life of them, can’t stop a good inside player. And Texas has a great inside player in LeMarcus Aldridge. Not only that, since Aldridge can actually step out and play solid perimeter defense, Kevin Pittsnogle, the embodiment of every stereotype possible about West Virginia (And for those slow-witted WVU fans reading, that means that people like Pittsnogle are just one of the many reasons the rest of the country makes fun at your expense. Trust me, we aren’t laughing with you.), struggled in the game against Texas on both ends of the court and will do so in this game as well.

So the Cousin Lovers will have to rely on their great guard shooting in this game. One problem with that: as of late, their guard shooting has been strictly average. The ‘Queers looked terrible in the Big East tournament and nothing short of ordinary in the first two rounds of the NCAA’s. Which, by the way, were against very weak teams. It will be a quick step up in talent against the Horns.

Mike Gansey torched Texas in the first game, netting 28 points. But he is mired in a slump. Don’t look for that kind of performance again. So with Pittsnogle tied up by Aldridge, and Gansey unable to hit the broad side of a West Virginia barn or his rotund sister/wife/cousin as of late, Joe Herber is going to have to carry the team. And as much as I like Herber, it isn’t going happen.

Meanwhile, in the first game between these two, Texas relied on a balanced attack of Aldridge (15 pts), P.J. Tucker (19 pts), Daniel Gibson (20 pts) and Brad Buckman (12 pts). All but Buckman have a good chance of repeating their performance against the Hicks. The problem for the Longhorns in the first game was the bench scoring. When A.J. Abrams scored a short jumper in the middle of the second half, that represented the entire bench scoring for Texas. But the bench has gotten much better as the season has gone on. Rick Barnes is using Abrams and Mike Williams much more effectively (and for the WVU fans, that effectively means better) as the season wears along. While a despicable WVU-Duke regional final is not out of the realm of possibility, Texas should save the nation from having to watch that repulsive matchup.
Pick: Texas 79, West Virginia 72