The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 3/06/06

This could be the final bracket projections. I’ll see if I can get one done on Sunday before the selection show, but I can’t make any promises. Before we get to that, another set of rankings.

1. Connecticut (27-2), LW-1: UConn continues to coast to a third national championship.
2. Villanova (24-3), LW-5: These guys again? As long as they don’t have to play UConn, they should be all right.
3. Duke (27-3), LW-2: Even though I still don’t think Villanova is anything special, if you lose two games in a week, you must move down.
4. Memphis (27-3), LW-3: Didn’t look so great against tough competition. Could be an early warning sign not to pick Memphis going too far in your brackets next week.
5. Gonzaga (26-3), LW-6: ‘Staches continue to escape WCC teams…they won’t be able to play mediocre and get away with it in a couple of weekends.
6. Ohio State (23-4), LW-7: It’s not like I’ve been telling you about this team for the past two months…oh wait, yes I have.
7. Texas (25-5), LW-4: Everyone’s shocked that the Horns lost to A&M. Why? A&M is a good team. The three-point loss on the road, at the buzzer, is not as bad as everyone is making it out to be.
8. Illinois (25-5), LW-9: GW does not occupy The “GW Spot” for the first time in weeks.
9. North Carolina (21-6), LW-11: I saw someone actually gave them a first place vote in the coaches’ poll (Gary, voting for a team in the polls does not help your RPI). Even though I’ve been right about Carolina all season, a first place vote is a bit ridiculous.
10. George Washington (26-1), LW-8: Here they are! Drop two spots because of gift win given to them by Charlotte.
11. Washington (26-5), LW-12: Huskies starting to peak at the right time. Great win in the desert against Arizona.
12. Boston College (24-6), LW-14: Again, Eagles pick up two close wins against lesser competition. I don’t know if the real BC team is ever going to show up.
13. UCLA (24-6), LW-16: Two big road wins, one over a good Cal team and the other to clinch the conference over Stanford, vault the Bruins up the charts.
14. Tennessee (21-6), LW-10: Loss to Kentucky actually helps the rest of the SEC get more bids.
15. Kansas (22-7), LW-17: Convincing win over Colorado shows me the Jawhawks are going to be a tough out in the Big 12 tournament.
16. Florida (24-6), LW-18: No doubt about it…win at Kentucky finally gives UF a decent road win. I’ll reward them this week.
17. LSU (22-7), LW-19: Again, that loss to Florida forces me to put the better of the two teams under the other in the rankings.
18. Iowa (22-8), LW-20: After disappearing against good Big 10 teams as of late, the Hawkeyes showed up defensively in win over Wisconsin.
19. Pittsburgh (21-6), LW-13: I think it’s safe to say that the Steelers are going to be the only Pittsburgh team to win anything of note this year.
20. Oklahoma (20-7), LW-15: Another one-point victory was followed by a beat down at Texas. Guess which one I looked at more.
21. Nevada (24-5), LW-24: Unlike a lot of Top 25 teams, the Wolf Pack didn’t fool around against their conferences’ weaker teams and earned two blowout victories.
22. UAB (22-5), LW-NR: Huge win against Memphis earns them a spot in the rankings, but most importantly, cements a NCAA bid.
23. West Virginia (20-9), LW-21: Continuing their slide, the ‘Queers put up little fight in their loss to Cincinnati.
24. Texas A&M (20-7), LW-NR: How can anyone question this team being NCAA ready? Give them a bid. The RPI can’t tell you everything about every team. The Aggies are the hottest squad west of the Mississippi. Plus, they made me look real good when I picked them to beat Texas.
25. Marquette (20-9), LW-23: Despite loss at Louisville, Marquette only moves down two spots because they got a bye in the Big East tournament and there are no other teams that deserve to go ahead of them right now.

Dropped out: Georgetown (USF?!?), NC State (Wake Forest?!?)
Next Five In: Arkansas, Michigan State, San Diego State, Georgetown, Bucknell

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. And this is my opinion. It may not be correct, but these are the 65 teams that should get bids. Going out on a limb and giving bids to Texas A&M and Florida State may not be right, but it should be. Anyway, I separated the conferences into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. Like last week, I actually picked who I thought would win those conferences. The ones that already won their conference tournament are in bold. The rest of the conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (5): Boston College, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State
Big East (7): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia
Big 10 (7): Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (4): Arizona, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (6): Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee,

Notes: Florida State’s two wins get them back in the brackets. In my opinion, A&M not only is in, but solidifies their position. Alabama gets in because there are very few other teams to put here. Their overall record is strictly average. Same with Indiana. Syracuse drops out. Maryland is still a victory shy. Seton Hall remains out. I don’t think they’re good at all, and if they lose in the first round of their conference tournament and still get in, it’s a disgrace. Arizona and Michigan have to be real careful right now. A first round loss for either of them could be trouble.

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (1): George Washington
Conference USA (2): Memphis, UAB
Mountain West (2): Air Force, San Diego State

Notes: UTEP and BYU join Syracuse in the ranks of teams that dropped out this week. UAB gets their big win to cement their position.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial Athletic (2): George Mason, UNC-Wilmington
Horizon (1): Milwaukee-Wisconsin
MAAC (1): Iona
Mid-American (1): Kent State
Missouri Valley (4) Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Wichita State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
Western Athletic (1): Nevada

Notes: The MVC should not get more than four votes. Southern Illinois, by virture of winning their conference tournament, gets in. Creighton drops out. Bradley should not, I repeat, should not get a bid. I don’t care if they got hot recently. No MVC team with 10 losses or more should get in. They haven’t beaten anyone outside the MVC worth noting. Two weeks ago no one would have included them, and I see no reason to start now. Manhattan lost in their conference semifinals, which means they are done. They’ll be replaced by Iona.

SMALL
America East: Albany
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Pacific
Ivy: Pennsylvania
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast Conference: Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Southern U.

Notes: As I expected, Davidson came from third to win the Southern. I still think Montana and Sam Houston State are going to win their conference tournaments despite not being the number one seed. The rest of the bids go to the regular season conference winners.