Please Close The Window, You're Letting In A Draft

I don’t really want to write about the draft. But I feel I have to. You can go back two posts ago, or several posts during the regular season, to see that I can’t stand the NFL Draft and the hype surrounding it.

Now my friends have said that the reason I don’t like the draft is that the Redskins have traded away their first round picks until 2011. Touché. There might be some truth to that. But odds are that only five to seven of the first round selections this year will amount to anything resembling a pro-bowler. Really, when you consider that Priest Holmes was an undrafted free agent in the same draft that Darrell Russell was the number two pick overall, why should I care what happens this weekend. Here is a list of some players that wouldn’t even be drafted today:

Johnny Unitas: 1955, Round 9, Pick 102
Ken Houston: 1967, Round 9, Pick 214
Jackie Smith: 1963, Round 10, Pick 123
Roger Staubach: 1964, Round 10, Pick 123
Deacon Jones: 1961, Round 14, Pick 186
Bart Starr: 1956, Round 17, Pick 200
Raymond Berry: 1954, Round 20, Pick 232
“Night Train” Lane: 1952, undrafted
Warren Moon: 1984, undrafted

What do all those guys have in common? They all have busts in Canton. You can find a good player in any round, and in some cases, after the draft is over. The first round means basically nothing. Zip. Nada. Consider that the NFL Draft, in one form or another, has been held since 1936. Only 11 of the 70 of the #1 overall selections currently reside in the Hall (and that of all the #1 selections still playing, only Peyton Manning appears to be headed for Canton). So counting Manning, that’s a 17% clip.

The #2 pick fares no better, with only 10 players in, or in my opinion, heading to the Hall after their career is over (Not counting Joe Namath, who shouldn’t be in the Hall. One game does not make a career. The stats don’t lie: 50.1% completion rate and 173 TD’s compared with 220 INT’s. Why Namath is in and Art Monk, who held most of the important NFL receiving records until some dude named Jerry Rice came along, is out is beyond my comprehension. But I digress from my stated purpose of making fun of the draft. Seriously, stop reading the parentheses and move on to the next paragraph.).

So what do all these scouts, draft gurus, insiders and mock draft geeks know? Absolutely nothing. Sure Mel Kiper has nice hair and pretties up the television, but I certainly don’t want him deciding the future of my favorite team. Which is why I prefer my favorite team to exchange draft picks for restricted free agents. At least that way, you know what you’re getting instead of rolling the proverbial dice in the NFL crapshoot.

Anyway, other than Reggie Bush, this appears to be one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory (another reason I’m glad the Redskins got something better for their picks). So I’ll take a stab at the first 15 pick projection. I will predict where I think the players will actually go, then I’ll tell you if that pick is actually any good. Which is what no one is talking about. Sure the Raiders could draft Vince Young. But should they? My contempt for the draft will only allow me to make the first 15 selections before you and I both become bored with the subject.

1. Houston Texans: Reggie Bush, Southern Cal
If the Texans don’t select Bush, they’re crazy. They might as well fold up so the NFL can finally give another franchise to Los Angeles. Bush is head-and-shoulders above any other player in this draft. Sure the Texans need some offensive linemen, and as we’ve seen in Buffalo and Detroit, great position players do not mask bad offensive line play. But there is a glut of second and third round worthy linemen in this draft. Plus, there will be plenty of linemen on the free agent market in 2007. The Texans should draft Bush here, draft for offensive line depth in the next two rounds, then sign a big name offensive lineman on the free agent market next season. In two years, assuming David Carr survives his yearly beatings, the Texans will be respectable. But not if Dominick Davis is their running back.
If the Texans make this pick, the Predictor grade is: A+


Hopefully Houston won't overthink their selection, and take the draft's best player in over five seasons.

2. New Orleans Saints: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia
The Saints desperately need offensive linemen. More so than Houston. They have Drew Brees. They have Joe Horn. They’ll have Deuce McAllister coming back. Now give those weapons a chance to succeed. The defense is adequate, so there is no need to take overrated Mario Williams. Plus, you can always pick up defensive studs in the later rounds. I think cooler heads will prevail in the Bayou, and Ferguson dons the black and gold.
If the Saints make this pick, the Predictor grade is: A

3. Tennessee Titans: Matt Leinart, Southern Cal
Two words: Norm Chow
Three more words: Aging Steve McNair
Nine final words: Draft Vince Young, and prepare to suffer the consequences
If the Titans make this pick, the Predictor grade is: B+ (you’ll see why in a minute)

4. New York Jets: Mario Williams, NC State
Personally, I don’t see what the deal is with Mario Williams. He’ll be a good NFL player, but not spectacular. Here is where hype and potential in workouts will cost a team with several other talented players on the board. I want a proven player this high in the draft, and Williams wasn’t anything special at State. I watched him for the past three years during the ACC season. In the past 24 games, he has only recorded a sack in 11 of them. Not what I would want in the #4 overall pick. But the Jets already have two mediocre quarterbacks (Pennington and Ramsey) and they don’t need to draft another one. Williams is the only pick that makes sense. Here’s an idea. Curtis Martin isn’t going to last much longer. How ‘bout drafting DeAngelo Williams or Laurence Maroney? I know that it’s a bit high, but it makes more sense than a reach pick like M.Williams. Heck, trade down eight or nine spots and do it. The Swampland brain trust isn’t that bright.
If the Jets make this pick, the Predictor grade is: C

5. Green Bay Packers: A.J. Hawk, Ohio State
Don’t have much to say about Hawk. Seems like a safe pick at #5. The Packers should release Brett “All me, all offseason” Farve and draft Jay Cutler instead of relying on Aaron Rodgers to be their next QB. But they won’t.
If the Packers make this pick, the Predictor grade is: B-

6. San Francisco 49ers: Vernon Davis, Maryland
Here is the first of consecutive big bust picks. Vernon Davis is the most over-hyped, overrated player in the draft this season. First, you never take a tight end in the Top 10. Never. A good tight end can be found in any round. A good tight end in the draft won’t vault your team to the playoffs like a good lineman or quarterback can. Look at the Chargers and Chiefs. They have the best two tight ends in the game, and neither team made the playoffs last season. Heck, the Redskins played the entire 2005 season without an NFL caliber tight end (Chris Cooley is an H-back/Fullback) and made the postseason. Tight ends are not the missing piece of the puzzle, especially for a 4-12 team. Second, Davis is the Lee Flowers Paper Champion of the 2006 Draft. No player is better in workouts and practice and training sessions than Davis. But he disappears in games. As a Maryland graduate, and someone who broadcasted Maryland football for two seasons, I’ve seen the real Davis. The one who will make three or four amazing catches one week, then not even show up the next three. Forget taking plays off. He takes entire games off. And the only major advantage he had in college was his size. That won’t be the case in the NFL, where he will be strictly above average in terms of bulk. Unfortunately, the 49ers will be able to draft Davis here. This is an organization that thought Alex Smith was a #1 overall pick. Davis must seem like a Hall of Famer to the 9ers. From here on out, Davis is going to be my poster child for why the draft is all hype and not important. Here is a player that will get drafted in the top 10 based on potential alone. He hasn’t proven anything during his college
days. Please San Francisco, take Winston Justice. Or consider the Alex Smith experiment over and take Cutler. Heck, take Young. Don't take Davis here. Don’t do this to yourselves. No, don’t put Davis’ name on that card, I’m warning you…
If the 49ers make this pick, the Predictor grade is: D-

7. Oakland Raiders: Vince Young, Texas
Speaking of stupid, right on cue its time for the Raiders to make their annual mistake. Don’t be surprised if Al Davis tries to select Reggie Bush, only to be told by Paul Tagliabue that he can’t select a player that has already been drafted. Al Davis will then sue the NFL. While the paperwork is being filed, he’ll make 2006 Draft mistake #2 by drafting Young. Some think Young will go earlier, but I think that Wonderlic test will come back to haunt Young and knock him down a bit. Young is a slightly better version of Phillip Rivers. His throwing motion is terrible. His arm strength, which for some reason has been praised, needs to really be questioned. His decision-making is average. And his speed, in terms of the NFL, is only somewhat above normal. The decision-making and poor throwing motion worry me the most. He will never be a proto-typical passer, nor does he have the speed and athletic ability (in the NFL at least) to be another Michael Vick. Add in the fact that he’ll be drafted by the Raiders, and Young’s days in the NFL may be limited.
If the Raiders make this pick, the Predictor grade is: D

8. Buffalo Bills: Brodrick Bunkley, Florida State
If the Bills were smart, they’d draft Winston Justice and start rebuilding that awful offensive line. Unfortunately, the Bills are being run by 87 year-old Ralph Wilson, who is too busy complaining about the Redskins, and 80-something Marv Levy, who is too busy trying to find Jim Kelly and Andre Reed. Like the Jets, they’ll make a huge mistake taking an above-average defensive lineman instead of a franchise offensive tackle.
If the Bills make this pick, the Predictor grade is: D+

9. Detroit Lions: Sinorice Moss, Miami
As per NFL Rule 11, Section 2a, the Lions must select a wide receiver. Matt Millen continues his goal of somehow instituting a 6-receiver set. Clearly the Lions have needs to fill at the reciever position. Forget improving at quarterback, running back, tight end, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and defensive secondary...the Lions need more receivers! No, in all seriousness…


All right Detroit, we all get it. You love the receivers. You can stop it now. It's not funny anymore. Stop being an embarassment for the league.

9. Detroit Lions: Winston Justice, Southern Cal
If Justice somehow slips by the Jets and the Bills, the Lions would be crazy to pass on him. I think, for the first time in years, that common sense will prevail in this embarrassment of a franchise. Seeing as Millen is still in charge, this is a big assumption on my part. Word is that Detroit is hoping to select safety Michael Huff. He’ll be around, but if Justice is hanging around too, he’ll fill a bigger need for Detroit than Huff does. Still, I’m sure it will be hard for the Lions to pass on Moss or Santorio Holmes. Even if they make the Justice selection, you can still rest assured the Lions will find some way to screw up his development. It’s the Lions, it’s what they do.
If the Lions make this pick, the Predictor grade is: A-

10. Arizona Cardinals: Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Not many have Cutler being sent to the desert. But as of now the three Cardinals quarterbacks are Kurt Warner, John Navarre and Rohan Davey. Trust me, the Cards need a quarterback. And with both franchise offensive tackles off the board, I think there is a good chance that Denny Green selects Cutler. Cutler, in my opinion, is the best quarterback in the draft. I’ve been saying for two years, much longer than that stooge Kiper or any of these other draft mockers, that Cutler would be the steal of this draft. Unlike most, I’ve actually seen him play in college. Forget the workouts and potential, this kid can flat out throw and he has proven it in actual game play. He’s got a better arm than Leinart. If the Titans were smart, they’d draft the hometown kid and let other teams worry about Leinart and Young. But that’s not going to happen. The Cards need to take Cutler, sit him on the bench behind Warner for a year, then unleash him in 2007 with Edge, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald as his offensive weapons. I’m hoping Cutler goes to Arizona and proves me right.
If the Cardinals make this pick, the Predictor grade is: A+

11. St. Louis Rams: Michael Huff, Texas
If common sense rules the three picks before St. Louis, then Michael Huff conveniently slips to the Rams. After losing Adam Archuleta, and after having one of the worst secondaries in the league last season, the Rams will be desperate for help in the defensive backfield. I don’t think much of Huff or most other Texas players (see Williams, Ricky), but he has the potential to be a solid NFL starter.
If the Rams make this pick, the Predictor grade is: B

12. Cleveland Browns: Haloti Ngata, Oregon
To be honest, I have never seen Ngata play nor do his stats look that impressive. But everyone seems to think he is worth of a top 10 pick. I don’t, but if he is as good as advertised, then the Browns need to take him. Their defensive line is in shambles.
If the Browns make this pick, the Predictor grade is: B-

13. Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
Word is the Ravens are looking for a corner. I think offensive line, quarterback, running back and receiver are more pressing issues for this team. As well as finding a new head coach. Instead the Ravens take the best overall corner in the draft, but it won’t help them score points in 2006.
If the Ravens make this pick, the Predictor grade is: C+

14. Philadelphia Eagles: Chad Jackson, Florida
Now I’m assuming that with the 14th pick, Andy Reid and company won’t do something dumb like draft for depth in the first round…which is the modus operandi of the Eagles in recent seasons. They seem to be lacking a decent wide receiver after they released their number one guy. His name escapes me at the moment. Anyway, they won’t find a decent receiver in this draft. Jackson is nothing special, and Florida receivers have a poor track record.
If the Eagles make this pick, the Predictor grade is: C-

15. Denver Broncos: Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
Like I said above, this draft does not have many decent receivers. Holmes, along with Jackson, may not be in the NFL in five seasons. Holmes has neither size nor speed, but Denver is infatuated with him. So Holmes is the pick. By the way, the best receiver in the draft is Sinorice Moss. Maybe he’ll fall to the Redskins.
If the Broncos make this pick, the Predictor grade is: D+

There it is. After the 15th pick, it’s anybody’s guess to what teams are going to do. As for the Redskins, who’ve upgraded their team more than any other organization in the NFL could possibly hope to do in the draft, they have to wait for the 53rd pick. A linebacker would be nice. So would some depth along the offensive and defensive lines. Thomas Howard from UTEP and Rocky McIntosh from Miami should both be available for linebackers. Guards David Joseph of Oklahoma or Max Jean-Gilles of Georgia could both be available as well and would be solid selections. Tight end Leonard Pope of Georgia may be around as well. Pope is the best tight end in the draft. He is much better than Vernon Davis. Of course, if Sinorice Moss slips this far down, I would love to see the Skins draft him and put him next to his brother. My guess is it will be Howard, McIntosh or Jean-Gilles. Howard and McIntosh would both get the opportunity to compete for the starting outside linebacker job. Jean-Gilles would be a steal and would be a security blanket for the Skins if Randy Thomas’ broken leg doesn’t heal properly. Hopefully the Skins won’t be hesitant in future seasons to continue to trade their draft picks for young and proven free agents.