NFL Week 13: Handpicked For Your Enjoyment

Despite consuming large amounts of stuffing during the making of my last picks, I still had an 11-4 mark which bring the records to:
Overall: 110-55 (67%)
Vs. Spread: 95-64-6
The following should not be used to for wagering purposes.

THURSDAY
Baltimore Ravens (9-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-5)(-3)
8:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
So these Thursday games are permanent now? The NFL is coming closer and closer to imitating college. Soon we’ll have Wednesday night games and Friday afternoon games and the teams that don’t make the playoffs will play in some consolation game in Boise. I don’t like this one bit. Let’s stick to Sunday and Monday night with the occasional Thursday game on Thanksgiving. It’s worked pretty well the last 30 some odd years.
Pick: Bengals

SUNDAY
Minnesota Vikings (5-6) vs. Chicago Bears (9-2)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
As usual, the question is do you feel comfortable taking the Bears with such a large spread? With the Bears offense I usually don’t. However, the defense should be able to grab at least one touchdown for themselves against Brad “The Manager” Johnson.
Pick: Bears

Arizona Cardinals (2-9) vs. St. Louis Rams (5-6)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I know it was 1998, but it seems like just yesterday that Jake Plummer was leading the Cardinals into the playoffs and into a bright future. Now, both Plummer and the Cardinals won’t be on an NFL field this Sunday. Actually, rumor has it that the Cardinals still compete in the NFL. I’m looking into it.
Pick: Rams

Indianapolis Colts (10-1)(-7.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-7)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
After demoralizing the Giants, the Titans are now my new second favorite team in the NFL. That won’t help them get picked, but Vince Young is finally on my good side.
Pick: Colts, Titans cover

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
The 49ers are back below .500 and order has temporarily returned to the NFL.
Pick: Saints

Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)(-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-8)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
I’m really rooting for Kansas City. I’m the only one who picked them to win the AFC West. Man, I would love to be right. And if it wasn’t for the entire division having a brain lock when facing the Chargers and their one person offense, then KC would be large and in charge. I think they’ll beat San Diego in a couple of weeks, but they have to avoid the upset here. This has all the makings of a last second win.
Pick: Chiefs, Browns cover

San Diego Chargers (9-2)(-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-6)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
Note to the Bills: There’s this running back that plays for the Chargers. His name is LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s pretty good. You need to stop him to win this game. You should probably consider putting nine men in the box. The quarterback? Don’t worry about him. Pretend like he’s not even there. He’s worthless without a running game. Please stop #21 in white. Thanks, and enjoy going .500 the next 10 years. Good luck with that. Signed: Chiefs fans and everyone who picked Kansas City to win the AFC West.
Pick: Chargers

Detroit Lions (2-9) vs. New England Patriots (8-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Ok, who snuck onto to this page and changed my Detroit/Miami pick to the Lions? Fess up! All right, it was me who picked the Lions. I don’t remember drinking a whole lot before making that pick. I willingly and thoughtfully risked my otherwise gaudy record on the Lions. Man, I must have been slipped something. What the hell was I thinking? Never, ever pick Detroit.
Pick: Patriots

New York Jets (6-5)(-2) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-7)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Upset Alert! The Packers have only won one game at home this year. They’re due for win number two.
Pick: Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-6)(-1.5)
4:05 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
I give up. I have no idea which Jaguars team is playing this week. Their games shouldn’t count against my record. This is a fairly decent opponent, so my best guess is the Jags play up to the competition and win on the road.
Pick: Jaguars

Houston Texans (3-8) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-9)(-3)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
Make fun of this game if you want (and I know many of you will), but I thought both teams would be playing for their first win of the season here. Shows what I know.
Pick: Texans

Dallas Cowboys (7-4)(-3) vs. New York Giants (6-5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
My favorite new FOX advisement is for their “handpicked games”. You see FOX, you don’t get to handpick and flex games. Only NBC gets to do that. When you say “handpicked”, what you really mean is, “the game we’re stuck with after NBC took our best game to their network”. I know handpicked sounds a little more appealing, but please, don’t try to trick us. We’re not that stupid. Besides, who would actually want to watch a team that blew a 21-point fourth quarter lead to a 4-7 team?
Pick: Cowboys

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7)(-7)
4:15 p.m. Heinz Field
So this must be FOX’s “other” handpicked game. Where’s the hype for this one?
Pick: Steelers

Denver Broncos (7-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-4)(-3)
8:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Let me see if I can understand this. Shaun Alexander just rushed for over 200 yards last week. Matt Hasselbeck, after a horrendous first half, had three touchdowns and a 2-point conversion in the second half. Both players look pretty healthy. Seattle is at home, where they rarely lose. Denver, on the other hand, is giving the ball to Jay Cutler who will start his first NFL game ever (I’m a big Cutler fan, but he’s not a miracle worker). The Broncos have injuries up and down their defense. And Seattle is only favored by three? What am I missing here?
Pick: Seahawks

MONDAY
Carolina Panthers (6-5)(-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
8:30 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Is it fair to say that the better part of Donovan McNabb’s career is over? First the broken foot a few years ago. Then the phony hernia injury last season. Now a torn ACL. He might be ready for the 2007 opener. Philly may want to think about obtaining a quarterback not named Jeff Garcia for next season. By the way, can the Redskins please play the Eagles at home in either week 1 or week 2 next season. After the schedule the Skins were given this year, I think the NFL owes them a solid.
Pick: Panthers

Later this week: Redskins vs. Falcons (HEY...easy Michael, careful where you're flicking those things) and Terps vs. Notre Dame

Maryland Basketball: House of 'Paign

#23/19 Maryland Terrapins (7-0) at
Illinois Fighting Illini (7-0)
Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL
ACC/Big Ten Challenge

Back from Thanksgiving break and I’m ready to forge ahead with a big game for Maryland tonight. First though, some things that happened to me during my mini-vacation. I finally went to see Borat over the week. This may be the worst movie I’ve ever seen. In all fairness, I’ve never seen an Ali G episode or anything else with Sasha Baron Cohen in it. So that may have something to do with it. But I was told by everyone who saw the movie that I didn’t need to see any of Cohen’s previous work to like this film. That may have been true, but I didn’t like the movie anyway. There were only a couple of scenes that were worth laughing at. I’m sure half of the “unintentional” comedy in the movie was staged, especially the scene with Pamela Anderson. And what was the deal with the two naked men wrestling for a good five minutes? If I had known ahead of time that this movie would contain low-grade gay porn, I wouldn’t have gone. I wish I’d seen the new James Bond film. I still have to see that.

On a positive note, I finally got a new job. Which means that this page may be lacking at times. I won’t have as much time to jerk around at work and write stuff for this page. Don’t worry you five loyal readers…I will continue to update, just not as frequently. By the way, if you are the asshole from California that somehow stole my credit card number and ran up 600 dollars worth of leather purchases at Coach.com, I will find you and I will kill you. You’ll be easy to spot, you’ll probably be the only douchbag wearing $600 worth of leather. You may think I’m joking, but I will kill you.

I could rant about Borat and identity theft for a couple of more pages, but I’ll spare everyone. You probably came here to read about Maryland basketball. At least I hope you came here for that reason. The Terps continue their defensive renaissance, which in turn, has fueled their offensive outbursts. This Terps team bears resemblance to the teams from the mid-90’s. Those were the most aesthetically appealing Gary Williams’ teams to watch. It was controlled chaos. No, they didn’t win the national championship like the 2002 version, but they always played exciting games.

The Eric Hayes/Greivis Vasquez combination at point is looking very good. Vasquez is obviously the more dangerous scorer, but what Hayes lacks in scoring he makes up for in ball-control and defense. Mike Jones seems comfortable playing on the perimeter. I would love to see him drive to hoop aggressively once and awhile, but as long as he keeps hitting the treys, I don’t much care. His defense has improved dramatically. I think Jones’ defense is one of the unsung aspects of this 7-0 start. D.J. Strawberry looks much more natural at the three than he did in the backcourt. He is the perfect “tweener”. He does all the cutting and dribble-driving (hey, how did Bill Raftery sneak on to this page…ONIONS!) that Jones refuses to do. He also continues to be the best defender in the conference. The frontcourt of Ekene Ibekwe and James Gist appears to be solid. Gist is still hesitant to play with his back to the basket at times, and Ibekwe still forces off-balance shots from time to time. And their rebounding slips occasionally as well. This is why I’ve been calling for more Bambale Osby. He may not have the quickness in transition that Gist and Ibekwe have, but he won’t get pushed around inside trying to grab a board. The man put in 16 points against a good Winthrop team after being seldom used against Michigan State. Seriously, let’s see more of him.

Maryland is still, in many ways, an unknown team. It is too early to say whether or not this is a tournament caliber team. It’s one thing for Maryland’s up-tempo game to work out of conference, but let’s see what happens when they get into the ACC and play against teams that are used to facing Williams. And by no means should we be saying that Maryland is a potential Final Four team, as one moron from the Baltimore Sun said this past week (Does anyone still read the Sun? After the Ravens fluked their way to the Super Bowl in 2000, I think the Sun’s sports page decided to mail in the rest of the decade). As good as this team may be, and as promising as Vasquez/Hayes look, Maryland is too reliant on the freshmen point guards. Remember last year when everyone and their mothers were sweating Duke (I know this happens every year, but stay with me). I told you that Duke would be lucky to make it past the Sweet 16 because, even with all their talent, they had a freshman point guard running the show. And when pot-smoking Backne went cold in the tournament, Greg Paulus didn’t know what to do. Paulus, along with some bad shooting, cost Duke in March, just as I predicted here. Freshman point guards are the kiss of death. The NCAA has allowed freshman to play since the early 70’s and exactly two freshman point guards have won national championships. Mike Bibby did it with Arizona in 1997 and Gerry McNamara did it with Syracuse in 2003. And both of those teams were so immensely talented with other ball handlers in the backcourt, they were able to overcome their weakness at point. So for all the accolades being thrown at the Terps so far, no one is mentioning that the weakness in this team still lies at point with the two freshmen. Don’t mean to be a downer because I’m really excited about this team, but I think it needs to be said.

Anyway, the Terps managed not to slip up against Winthrop and blew past High Point in their tune-up for tonight. Maryland gets ready to participate in the ACC’s annual beating of the Big Eleven with a true road game against the Illinois Fightin’ Illini featuring Bruce Weber’s Fightin’ Bright Orange Suit. It’s good to see that Maryland is playing on the Champaign campus and at Assembly Hall and not at a “neutral site” like Chicago. A few years ago Maryland had to play Indiana at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis instead of the other Assembly Hall in Bloomington. I hated that. If the Big Ten insists on continuing this series, and if Maryland is going to travel 1,000 miles and play in front of a hostile crowd, why play the game down the road in an NBA arena? We’re not Duke. We shouldn’t be afraid of an out-of-conference road game. Why not play the game on campus? It’s great experience for some of the younger players who will have to make their way to the Dean Dome, Conte Forum and Cameron Arena later this season. So good for Gary to push for the true road game.

That said, it won’t be easy to survive the infamous Orange Krush and one of basketball’s toughest road environments. For those of you not familiar with Assembly Hall, picture Virginia’s University Hall, except the students are a lot closer to the court, the arena is a bit darker and the alumni are into the game much more. Illinois has not lost an out-of-conference game on their home court since 1998 (to George Washington of all teams) and has only lost four conference home games since 1999.

The good news for Maryland is that this Illini team is not the same as the one that has advanced deep into March the last few years. This Illinois team, only two years removed from their national championship game loss to UNC, has had most of their more well known players graduate or move on to the NBA. Deron Williams, Luther Head, James Augustine and Dee Brown are all gone. The only real holdovers are Jamar Smith and Brian Randle, and if I’m correct, neither player should be eligible because they both already graduated from Maryland a couple of years ago. Haha…in all seriousness, Illinois will have trouble matching Maryland’s talent on the floor. Smith and Randle are both coming off injuries. They’ve both only played two games all year. Smith, who is not the 6-9 center that Maryland used to win the ACC championship, is a 6-4 sophomore guard who is Illinois best scorer. In the two games he has played, he’s only played an average of 20 minutes, but has scored 16.5 points. Illinois throws a lot guys on the court. Once Randle gets healthy, the Illini will have 10 players averaging at least 11 minutes a ball game. They only use two seniors and one junior. The rest are sophomores with only freshman seeing any real playing time.

The Illini have a nice four-guard rotation. Along with Smith, Maryland will see Trent Meacham, Chester Frazier and Calvin Brock. Frazier, who is one of the sophomores, will be a beast of a point guard in a couple of years. He’s already averaging 11.6 points and seven assists a game. He still needs to control the ball better, as he turns the ball over almost four times a game, but that comes with age. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Maryland never recruited Frazier, considering he is from Baltimore. In fact, he’s from the same part of Baltimore that His Holy Juan-ness was from.

The Illini frontcourt is where all the experience is. Warren Carter is their big post presence at 6-9 215. The senior grabs six boards a game and gets the majority of his 11 points a game on put backs and second chances. The Terps will also have to deal with the junior Randle, Shaun Pruitt and freshman Richard Semrau (Weber has used Semrau a lot so far, but it remains to be seen if he’ll get playing time against a real opponent).

Illinois as a team is a lot like Michigan State, except they shoot a lot better. Weber’s teams are always tough on the boards, which is surprising because Weber usually favors a three-guard lineup with two average sized post players. Smith (57%), Meacham (50%) and Brock (47%) all shoot well from the outside. And they shoot much better at Assembly Hall than away from it. During Weber’s brief tenure at Illinois, his teams shoot nearly 10% better from behind the arch when they’re at home as compared to on the road or at a neutral site. So be careful Mike Jones. That good defense will have to continue.

Illinois has not played a tough schedule and has struggled a couple of times. This past week, Illinois escaped at home against Miami Ohio, which is an average MAC team, with a last minute bucket, 51-49. They also narrowly beat Bradley 75-71. For whatever reason, Weber decided to play that game on the road. Bradley is probably the best team they’ve played all season, but we’ll know more about the Illini this week when they play the Terps then go to the desert to play Arizona.

Maryland is going to face a good team from a major conference on the road. Those games are never easy. The Illini should finish somewhere between 3rd and 5th in the Big Ten this year and make the NCAA’s. A win here for Maryland would go a long, long way to getting a similar bid. On a neutral site, Maryland probably wins this game by six or seven. They are very similar to Illinois. They rotate in four guards. Their frontcourt is athletic but undersized. Both teams like to press. Maryland has a bit more experience and a bit more speed than the Illini do, so that should give Maryland the victory. Ibekwe is hurt, and listed as questionable, but he should play. He played against Duke with cracked ribs a couple of years ago, but his sprained ankle could limit his ability in the transition game. Without Ibekwe at full strength, we might see more of Osby, so this minor injury really shouldn’t be a problem. But Assembly Hall is at least an eight-point swing for Illinois and Bruce Weber’s orange blazer, right out of the Paul Schaffer collection, is good enough for five points. So far I’m 3-0 picking Maryland games, so let’s hope that I end up 3-1 after tonight.

Illinois 71
Maryland 67

The Second Annual Tryptophan Edition

Welcome to the second annual hodgepodge Thanksgiving addition. As I make the yearly trip with the family for my favorite holiday, I will be leaving this page for the next week. So real quick, let’s go over the Redskins game and the rest of the NFL. I will return next Tuesday for the Maryland/Illinois preview. Until then, this brief write-up is all you’ll have.



Carolina Panthers (6-4) vs. Washington Redskins (3-7)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Jason Campbell looked ordinarily average. Is that redundant? Well, it’s the best way to describe his performance. He went 19-34 for 196 yards. He couldn’t hit a pass over 10 yards. He was reluctant to get rid of the ball before being hit. In other words, he was a younger version of Mark Brunell. Seriously, 19-34 for 196 is exactly what we were getting from Brunell for most of the season.

Obviously there are differences. Campbell at least attempted to go downfield. He overthrew the receiver by 20 yards, but at least he tried. A quarterback that unsuccessfully goes deep is slightly, slighty better than one who never goes downfield at all. Campbell only made two throws that impressed me all day. The first was a third and long completion to James Thrash. The second was the rollout throw and touchdown pass to Todd Yoder. Ok, be honest…who had the vaunted Campbell-Yoder connection by week 11 in the season?

It makes sense to keep starting the kid, as the Redskins season is done. It would take six wins in a row, and help, for the Skins to even sniff the playoffs. In other words, it ain’t happening. This week the Redskins kick off a three-game homestand by playing the frustratingly inconsistent Carolina Panthers. The Panthers defense went from slowly turning the corner to dominant in one bye week flat. When was the last time the Rams were shut out? No seriously, I don’t feel like looking it up.

The offense is reliant on Steve Smith. The Deshawn Foster-DeAngelo Williams connection has yet to get going on any regular basis. Keyshawn Johnson is good when he wants to be, but he no longer has the speed to be a deep threat. No one can stop Smith, but as long as you limit the rest of Carolina’s offense, he can’t beat you by himself. Last week Smith had a good game but Carolina only managed 13 points against a terrible Rams defense (two additional points were from a safety). It was a good thing that Carolina’s defense stepped up or the Panthers could have been looking at a .500 record and a playoff dogfight.

If the Redskins couldn’t stop Cadillac Williams and Mike Alstott for Tampa, both of who have the mobility of a hippo, they’re not going to stop DeAngelo Williams and Foster. I have no idea how they can’t stop Alstott. If he gets the ball, he’s going straight. That’s the only way he can go. He can’t cut. He can’t run a sweep. He’s going up the middle. Ugh.

And if the Redskins couldn’t stop a one-dimensional offense, they won’t be able to stop Carolina. While the Panthers have struggled, the Skins defense has been worse. Campbell is likely to get blitzed a lot by the Panthers defense, and will turn the ball over at least twice. It would be a minor miracle if the Redskins don’t look as bad as St. Louis did last week against Carolina. The Redskins fans will not be happy.

On to the quick picks. My week 11 mark was 11-4. That’s more like it. Pimp-slap those records up here:
Overall: 99-51 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 87-58-5
Ignore for a second my 11-3-1 record against the spread last week and please don’t use the following picks as the basis for any real wagering. Plus, since it’s Tuesday, the lines I use won’t be the lines by game time on Sunday.

THURSDAY
Miami Dolphins (4-6)(-2.5) vs. Detroit Lions (2-8)
12:30 p.m Ford Field
I have a hard time betting against either home team on Thankgiving. However, last year I picked against both Detroit and Dallas and won. Hmm…I can’t see that happening again. This will be the only time in the next decade that I’ll pick the Lions as dogs.
Pick: Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)(-11)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
Dallas will win; it’s just a question of by how much. If the spread was 10, I’d probably stick with Dallas. But the 11-point spread will force me to do this.
Pick: Cowboys, Bucs cover

Denver Broncos (7-3)(-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
8:30 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
What took so long for the NFL to give Kansas City a home Thanksgiving game? I’ve been calling for a Thanksgiving tripleheader including KC for years. Yep, I even predicted that. That’s how good I am. Old school AFL rivalry. Arrowhead Stadium. Late night, primetime game. Yeah, it just feels right. This is old school football.
Pick: Chiefs

SUNDAY
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)(-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-6)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The Marylandville Jaguapins continue to confuse all except for me. The Giants come to town and they play up. The Texans come to town and they play down. A road game against Buffalo…well, it seems like a win for Jacksonville, but it will be ugly and close.
Pick: Jaguars, Bills cover

Houston Texans (3-7) vs. New York Jets (5-5)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
What, the Bears weren’t available for another game in New Jersey?
Pick: Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
When can we start calling the Ravens the worst 8-2 team ever (we were so quick to do those kind of ridiculous labels for the Redskins last season)? How many bounces will this team get. I’ve never seen a team get away with so many near turnovers week after week. All of the Skins 2005 mojo decided to move 40 miles north this season.
Pick: Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)(-3) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-7)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
How long are we going to call Chad Johnson “Ocho Cinco?” This guy could tell us to call him Natalie Portman and the media would buy into it. Only the Giants jump-shooting celebration is a more annoying trend.
Pick: Bengals

Arizona Cardinals (2-8) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-6)(-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
At least Brad Johnson is “managing” these losses. He is managing the hell out of them.
Pick: Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (5-5) vs. St. Louis Rams (4-6)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I’ve been so busy destroying the Rams season, that I’ve completely ignored the fact that the 49ers have reached .500. Only in the NFC West. The madness must stop.
Pick: Rams

New Orleans Saints (6-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-5)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Well, I finally got an Atlanta Falcons pick right. Now we go for an unprecedented two in a row. From the recent looks of it, neither of these teams is going to make the playoffs. Someone stops the slide and gets a one week reprieve.
Pick: Saints

Chicago Bears (9-1) vs. New England Patriots (7-3)(-3)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
No Chicago, you’re not in the Meadowlands anymore. A Tom Brady led offense is just the thing to put the Bears back in the loss column. What are the odds that Bill Billichick puts a hoodie on under one of those fancy Reebok suits for this game?
Pick Patriots

New York Giants (6-4)(-5) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-7)
4:15 p.m. LP Field
For Big Blue, it looks like it’s time to push all the chips in the middle of the table. If you want in, get in. If you want out, get out. Man, I miss Jim Fassel.
Pick: Giants

Oakland Raiders (2-8) vs. San Diego Chargers (8-2)(-13.5)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Hey, this LaDainian Tomlinson guy is pretty good. He’s already scored two touchdowns in this game.
Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (9-1)(-9.5)
8:15 p.m. RCA Dome
See, last week I had it all figured out. This was going to be the game Indy lost. Yep, even for all my shots at Philadelphia, I had them winning in the Dome in a primetime game. Then the Colts lost, McNabb blew out his knee, and my picks were screwed up. I’m not happy about two of those three. I’m really not one of those guys who roots for injuries, but I think most people can make an exception here.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY
Green Bay Packers (4-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-4)(-9)
8:30 p.m. Qwest Field
Again, it’s worth repeating. The 49ers are at .500. They are one game off the division lead. This is what’s become of the NFC West. How bad is this division? How bad is the NFL this season? However, both Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander are back, and maybe some order will be restored.
Pick: Seahawks

Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Maryland Basketball: Not So Fast My Friends

Winthrop Eagles (3-1) at
#25/24 Maryland Terrapins (5-0)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Maryland makes their debut in the polls and makes their third early season preview on my page.

Wait a sec...Mark, you said you'd only do game previews for Maryland when they were in conference or playing a big out of conference opponent. They're playing Winthrop tonight, you moron. You call this a big game?

Not so fast. I realize that most of you couldn't find Winthop on a map if I told you that they were located in Rock Hill, South Carolina. I know most of you couldn't guess what conference they play in if I told you they were in the Big South. But, this will not be an easy game. Anything but. This is a trap game.

Maryland just came off their tournament win in NYC and are due for a letdown. In eight days, they have to travel to Urbana-Champaign to play Illinois in a true road game in the ACC's Annual Beatdown of the Big 10 Challenge. Plus they have the holiday coming up as well. So the Terps are looking ahead.

Nuzzled in between all this is Winthrop. Innocent enough at first glance. The Terps should get an easy win, take off for Thanksgiving, come back Friday and drub High Point even with with half the team in a tryptophan induced coma, then get ready for Illinois. But then you look at the facts.

Winthrop is 3-1 this year. Last week they went to Starksville and beat Mississippi State. A MSU team that many, including myself, think is good enough to be a tournament team this season. They also drubbed a pretty good MAAC team in Iona.

Let's flash back for a second to mid-March. Winthrop was a #15 seed after winning the Big South. They drew #2 seed Tennessee in the first round. The Eagles controlled the majority of the game until a couple of stupid fouls in the final minute. The Vols still needed a 15-foot off balance jump shot from Chris Lofton to win 63-61.

Now let's flash back to early last week. The Eagles have lost a game this season. It was to #2 North Carolina. That performance was more impressive than anything Winthrop has done the past year. They led at halftime. Like the game against Tennessee, the Eagles controlled the game for most of the way. UNC pulled away in the last five minutes to win 73-66. UNC was able to win because Winthrop had exactly one free throw the entire game. It was the front end of a one-and-one, which they missed. Winthrop lost a game to the second-ranked team in the country, on the road, by only seven, in a game that they had one free throw and were awarded ZERO shooting fouls. With unbiased refereeing, the Eagles probably would have won.

Winthrop, like most of these small schools that occasionally rise up and cause trouble, is a veteran team. Their top six scorers consist of three seniors and three juniors. Only two underclassman see more than 10 minutes of playing time.

The Eagles are incredibly balanced. Their three top players are two guards and a senior power forward. Michael Jenkins and Torrell Martin. Jenkins has averaged 19 points a game and Martin has 15.5. They both jack up at least 7-8 three's a game. Jenkins is shooting 55% from beyond the arc. Winthrop as a team averages 30 three-point attempts a game. Their team average is 37%. So the perimeter defense will have to be ready.

Winthrop is not a one-trick pony. Phillip Williams, the 6-8 forward, averages 10 points a game inside. When the threes weren't falling against MSU, Williams scored 22 points against a pretty good frontcourt. Winthrop also has depth, they'll play at least eight to nine guys a game. Craig Bradshaw, Chris Gaynor and Taj McCullough all get serious minutes and get their points.

Maryland's weakness on defense, even over the course of the first five wins, has been playing the perimeter. So far their opponents haven't been able to knock down open shots. St. John's is awful from three land. Michigan State is better, but had an off night. If Maryland continues to give open looks, they will lose one of these non-conference games eventually. Old Dominion knocked off Georgetown because they got hot from downtown. Same for Oral Roberts against Kansas. Maryland has to be very careful. The Terps will win, but much closer than most think.

Maryland 80
Winthrop 71

Redskins at Bucs: A New Captain For A Sinking Ship

Washington Redskins (3-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-7)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
So it’s already come to this. Jason Campbell will be the starting quarterback this Sunday in Tampa. Obviously this move was going to come eventually. But why this week? This may be the worst time to do it.

If Joe Gibbs really wanted to start Campbell earlier, then he should have put him in following the bye week. That way he’d have two weeks to prepare for a home game. Or after the disastrous performance that Mark Brunell had against Tennessee. That would have made sense too. Heck, why not start him at the beginning of the season.

If Gibbs never really wanted to start Campbell until the Redskins season was “officially over”, then why not start him next week. The Redskins have three consecutive home games coming up and I’d rather give the kid a chance to play at home a couple of times before throwing him in on the road.

Starting him this week makes little sense. While Tampa no longer has the feared defense it did a few years ago, they’re still pretty good. That Cover 2 will make a rookie’s head spin (and let’s call Campbell a rookie for the sake of argument, I know technically he’s in his second year). Plus he has to deal with being on the road with the stupid cannons going off everywhere and what not. Plus he has a short week. It took Gibbs 24 hours to announce his starter for the Bucs game, so it’s as if he played Monday night because he’ll only have five days to get ready for Sunday. Plus, Campbell will now have to play without his running back after Clinton Portis was put on the IR. Ladell Betts is a solid backup, but he’s not Portis. On top of all this, the Redskins are 3-6 but still have very, very faint playoff aspirations. Usually the season is over when you get loss number seven. But the Skins, through some oddity, are technically only two games out of a wildcard spot. They overcame more than that in less time last season. This reeks of a give-up move by Gibbs, unless he thinks Campbell can channel Joe Montana.

Now, I said this move made little sense because I can’t say the move makes no sense. Clearly Brunell is struggling. Even the Brunell supporters can’t deny this anymore. The losses early in the season were not his fault. He had poor protection, several injuries to deal with and his defense couldn’t stop anybody. In the last few weeks it has become clear that now Brunell is the week link in the offense. Last week’s game against Philly was just depressing. He couldn’t throw the ball downfield. He was afraid to throw it downfield, save one pass to Brandon Lloyd. The players around just seemed to have lost all confidence in him. And, if the offense with Brunell is bad enough that it can only score three points against Philly’s defense, it can’t do much worse with Campbell at the helm. I mean what, is Campbell so bad the Redskins can’t score three points against Tampa? Maybe, but I doubt it.

I’ve been on the fence on Brunell for his entire time here. I wasn’t thrilled when the Redskins decided to sign him in the first place. Nor was I happy about Patrick Ramsey getting unceremoniously benched. But Brunell, to his credit, played well enough last year to lead the Redskins to a playoff victory. In my opinion, his stats were worthy of a Pro-Bowl invitation (Mike Vick’s were not, but I digress). So I came in to this season with the hope that the Redskins, who had and still have the overall talent to make a run at a championship, could squeeze one more year out of Brunell. He was the clear choice to start at the beginning of the season because you don’t want to throw a rookie quarterback into a mix of young veterans that expect to win the Super Bowl. Brunell certainly wasn’t the best quarterback out there, but he was the best option that Washington had.

I don’t think much of Campbell. I wasn’t happy when the Redskins traded up to draft him. I wasn’t happy that the Redskins drafted him, period. I wasn’t impressed with Campbell while he was at Auburn. He played with two very talented running backs (who both currently start in the NFL) and behind a very talented offensive line (again, several of whom are playing in the NFL). Despite his “strong arm” he was never really allowed to chuck the ball downfield. This is a man who had four different offensive coordinators and none of them let him throw deep. That was a red flag with me. And other than his undefeated senior year, he had three unremarkable seasons for the Tigers.

Now, the players seem to love him. They love to talk about some of the plays he makes in practice. During training camp, some veterans wondered out loud if he should be made the starter for opening day. In the preseason games, the kid looks ok. Nothing special. I guess we’ll just have to see. We won’t know how good he is until he plays, and plays a lot. One game won’t be great indicator. The next seven games could be a little more telling. I guess this move had to happen eventually.

The Redskins have to face a Buccaneers team that is basically a mirror image. Tampa was a team that made the playoff (losing to Washington of course) and expected to compete for their division title again. But injuries and poor play have derailed that plan. Instead of Clinton Portis and Santana Moss, it is Chris Simms for the Bucs. Their injuries have slowed down their offense and left their remaining players looking less talented. Cadillac Williams looks ordinary after an impressive rookie campaign. Some of this can be attributed to defense preparing for him. Mostly it’s because there is no real passing game threat for Tampa with Simms.

Bruce Gradkowski fills in for Simms at QB. Gradkowski is one of those big MAC quarterbacks that everyone drools over because of Ben Roethlisberger. Except he wasn’t expected to start this year…or ever. He was marked as a career backup. He’ll make a few plays a game but is basically incapable of running an offense for 60 minutes.

Defensively, the Bucs are not as good as they’ve been in the past. There’s still plenty of talent there, and the Zone 2 still works, but it’s a far cry from the Hardy Nickerson-Warren Sapp-John Lynch days. It would be a decent challenge for a veteran offense, but it will be very tough for a rookie quarterback.

I’m not sure how much to expect from Campbell. All I know is that the move symbolizes that the Redskins are giving up on their season. Whether justified or not, that’s just extremely disappointing. For anyone to think that Jason Campbell can come in actually lead the team somewhere, anywhere, this season is unreasonable. It won’t happen. It’s hard to get excited, even to watch a player that many think could be the future of the franchise, when the team he’s playing for has already mailed it in.

Maryland Basketball: Flexing Some Muscle

Maryland Terrapins (4-0) vs.
Michigan State Spartans (4-0)
Madison Square Garden - New York, NY
2K Sports College Hoops Classic Final

I’m not sure what team was wearing red last night, but it couldn’t have been the Maryland Terrapins. Ekene Ibekwe scoring 22 in the first half? D.J Strawberry not turning the ball over? The Bizarro Terps offense moving without the ball? What team is this? Where were the turnovers? Where were the rushed shots? Where were the defensive breakdowns?

The Terps looked great. Most of it was their own doing with pressure defense and transition offense. St. John’s didn’t help themselves. But anytime you’re able to blow out a Big East team, some of it is going to be good play and some of it will be the other team helping you with bad play. The Red Storm, despite having a veteran roster, made a bunch of terrible passes and had a bunch of wasted possessions. And they’re not much of an offensive threat when they play well. So I don’t think we learned much about the Terps defense.

However, the Terrapins offense looked very good against a top defensive team. The Terps moved without the ball and executed the baseline flex offense better than they have the past three years. Add in the beautiful transition points, and all of a sudden they look like a team that could easily put up 80 against any team in the country. Even more importantly, the Terps actually hit down open shots from the outside, making Ibekwe and James Gist a little more dangerous in the interior.

Back to the flex offense for a second. I don’t have the time now to explain the particulars of Gary’s flex offense. There are basically three main tenants to the system. The first goal is to get the ball inside to a cutter, not entirely different from the Princeton offense. But instead of running successions of backdoor cuts, the entry passes and cutters can come from anywhere (and any position, since theoretically, in a true flex offense all positions can be used interchangeably). If the cutters are covered, which usually happens when an opponent plays zone, the cutting motion to the interior should free up at least one player on the outside for open shots. So the second goal is to look for the open three. If the cut isn’t there, or the easy outside shot isn’t there, the third option is to wait for a defensive breakdown with fundamental passes and good ball handling. You don’t have to be the tallest team, or the quickest team, but you have to be able to execute.

In the past three seasons the intricacy of Maryland’s flex has been lost. The problem isn’t the first goal. The Terps have had plenty of good cutters from John Gilchrist to Nik Caner-Medley to Strawberry to Mike Jones. Opponents realized this and if the Terps were having success going inside, then they would switch to a zone. This is where the problem came in.

Against a zone defense, the flex offense is perfectly situated to get open looks from the outside. You take a cutter from the corner, have him head towards the basket, ball fake towards the cutter (a necessity in flex offense, even if is effective only for a split second), have the zone collapse on him, and bring a shooter to where the cutter was on the outside. He should be open. The system is designed to take advantage of good shooters, especially big men who can step outside and drain it. Maryland’s problem was the terrible outside shooting. Teams knew they couldn’t hit, so they’d sit in zone, wait for the miss, and rebound. If Jones happened to be hot from the outside, they’d put a man on him and zone the rest of the team. If he wasn’t hot on a particular evening, they’d play straight zone.

The Maryland players, not being complete idiots (except for Chris McCray), realized they couldn’t shoot from the outside, and realized they couldn’t get decent cutters against the zone. So they had to resort to the third goal, which is good ball movement and ball handling to create a defensive breakdown. But after Steve Blake graduated, the Terps were left with no one who could sufficiently move the ball and no one on the team was willing to move around much without it. So the flex offense went nowhere. The offense basically revolved around one or two players trying to make something happen while the rest of the team stood around and watched. The Terps did average a ton of points the last few years, but only did so by using transition defense and quick possessions. The more possessions they got, the more opportunities they got. The team was wild, but not efficient.

Last night however, the flex offense was back. It was beautiful. The unsung hero of the night was Gist. His initial cut to the hoop drew defenders and usually left the second cutter, or the post player (there must always be one player near the low-post in Gary’s flex) wide open. In most cases, this player was Ibekwe, which explains most of his 22 points. And when Jones started getting hot from the perimeter, it was all over. St. John’s couldn’t stop the cuts and inside play with man-to-man defense (despite having the height advantage) and they could leave Jones, Strawberry and Eric Hayes alone outside, so they couldn’t play zone. Add in the fact that the Terps finally have a couple of pass-first point guards for the first time since Blake, this offense has all the makings of being dangerous in conference play. The flex offense I saw last night was the flex offense I last saw in 2003.

Now, it’s easy to get carried away. Remember two years ago at this time Maryland was blowing out highly-ranked Memphis. It didn’t translate at the end of the season to a tournament bid. And it’s not as if St. John’s is the greatest team out there. It was a good test, and Maryland passed with flying colors. Now they have to do it again. The flex is much more effective against teams that have never seen it. Against coaches that Williams has faced a lot (Prosser, Hewitt, Ratface), the flex has to run almost flawlessly. Also, the Terps aren’t going to shoot 50% from the floor every night. They’ve got to prove they can win with defense too. They haven’t done that in a long time.

Next up in the final of whatever tournament this is are the Michigan State Spartans. Most analysts are expecting this to be a down year for MSU. I’m not sure why. They’re young, but not any younger than several teams in the Top 25 (Duke, Memphis, Georgia Tech and Texas, a team they just defeated, to name a few). No, they don’t have Kevin Durant or Greg Oden, but freshman Raymar Morgan is one of the better young players in the country. In his heads-up against Durant, Morgan put in 18 against the Longhorns and picked up five boards. Not bad at all.

Michigan State is led by junior guard Drew Neitzel. Netizel hit the game-winning shot against Texas with 2.4 seconds to go. He’s a smart player, who plays within the offense and doesn’t turn the ball over. He plays with a bunch of sophomores in the front court that are almost indistinguishable from one another. Like any typical Tom Izzo team, MSU has a bunch of undersized forwards that fly towards the ball and the rim. They may be a bit smaller than most, but they make up for it with athleticism. Think Mo Peterson. Izzo combines his undersized forwards with a big awkward center. Paul Davis played that role the last few seasons. It’s now being filled by gawky Goran Suton (with a name like Goran, you know he’s going to be big and lumbering). Suton’s role is to clean up the mess created by forwards Morgan, Marquise Gray and Drew Naymick.

Michigan State’s offense is never pretty, and they don’t have many great shooters. But as usual, they’re aggressive on the boards and play airtight defense. Izzo teaches rebounding better than any coach in the country (his players often practice in football gear). Those second and third chances the Terps got inside last night won’t be there in this game. The outside shots will be contested a little bit more. And the transition offense will be much tougher to get started.

The problem for the Spartans is the same problem that plagued St John’s last evening. Even against a below-average defense like Maryland’s, the Spartans cannot win a shootout. So if the Terps get an early run like they did against the Johnnies, then MSU will have a world of a time trying to catch up. Like St. John’s, they’ll press, and their usual patient offense will become sloppy. Then the Terps will be able to run. If MSU gives Maryland a tough first half, then Maryland will press and make mistakes. Instead of turnovers, we’ll see forced shots. Those forced shots will allow MSU to avoid Maryland’s pressure defense and settle into their offense a little more easily. I think we’ll see a much closer game for Maryland against the Spartans than we did last night.

Maryland 71
Michigan State 65

NFL Week 11: Holy Buckeye!

It looks like I’ve settled in to a groove midway through the season. During the bye weeks, I constantly went 8-5 or 9-4. Now, after the bye weeks are over, my string of decent, but certainly not great, records continues at 9-6. Show me my records, maestro:
Overall: 88-47 (65%)
Vs. Spread: 76-55-4
As always, please don’t use these picks to wager with. I know some lost soul who did last week, and my 6-9 mark against the spread was not to kind to him/her.

SUNDAY
Indianapolis Colts (9-0)(-1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-4)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
I gotta tell ya; I’m impressed with what I’ve seen from Tony Romo. I hate to say it, but the man looks to be a legitimate quarterback. He doesn’t make stupid decisions, he’s willing to throw the ball away and he’s not afraid to take shots down the field. I’m not very excited about the prospect that the Redskins will have to face this guy for the better part of decade.

I’ve become so impressed that I quickly jumped on him a couple of weeks ago in my fantasy league. My normal rule when doing these fantasy things is never draft or sign any player from the NFC East that doesn’t play for Washington. That way my rooting interests are not conflicted. But I picked up Romo with the intention of sitting him on my bench until one of friends decided to trade for him. The majority of my league is populated with intelligent football fans (there are a couple of teams I’m not too sure about). No one wants this guy. I’m offering him for next to nothing and no one wants him. I think they’re calling my bluff. As Matt Hasselbeck continues to recover from injury, and the quarterback by committee lineup is losing its appeal, I may actually have to start Romo very soon. I think everyone in my league wants to see this.

Meanwhile, Indy continues to roll, despite only showing up for two quarters against Buffalo. I know where Indy will lose and it won’t be here. I’ll tell you when the game arrives. But it’s not this one.
Pick: Colts

Oakland Raiders (2-7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Ok, I’m not the only one that thinks Damon Huard may be the better option in this game, am I? Huard, for the past two months, has been possessed by the ghosts of Steve DeBerg and actually resembled a NFL quarterback. I’d take my chances with him over someone who is still recovering from a concussion.
Pick: Chiefs, Raiders cover

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Football for the defensive impaired. One team allowed the Steelers non-existent offense look good last week (As I’m writing this, I think Willie Parker just broke off another 70-yard run). The other team made Philip Rivers look like a Hall-of-Famer. In typical unpredictable NFL fashion, how much do you want to bet that this game will be a defensive struggle?
Pick: Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)(-4) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-6)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
The Steelers are 3-6. When they win this game they’ll be 4-6. No, this does not mean the Steelers are going make the playoffs, or even get close to a playoff spot. It just means that they beat a bad Cleveland team. That’s all.
Pick: Steelers

Tennessee Titans (2-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
I continue to stick by my prediction that the Eagles won’t win more than eight games. This will be win number six…but where are the Eagles going to get three more?
Pick: Eagles, Titans cover

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)(-4)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
My record picking the Falcons: 1-8. My record picking the rest of the NFL: 87-39. At this point, I hope the Falcons keep defying my pick so I don’t have to think of anything else to write here for the game analysis.
Pick: Ravens

St. Louis Rams (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-4)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Let me take you back a couple of weeks ago. The Panthers collapsed against Dallas and the Rams were heading into Seattle to “take control of their division”. Everyone was talking about how the Rams could be a sleeper and Carolina was done. I kept telling you that the Rams were frauds and that Carolina would recover. Guess who was right. This guy, right here. The Panthers are back on track for a playoff spot. The Rams just lost to a Seattle team quarterbacked by Seneca Wallace and with Maurice Morris as the starting running back. Anyone still think the Rams are a darkhorse?
Pick: Panthers

Buffalo Bills (3-6) vs. Houston Texans (3-6)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Will anyone outside of the Houston and Buffalo areas see this game? Heck, will the CBS affiliate in either town even bother to broadcast this one? When the best story line is Eric Moulds vs. his old team, you have a problem and you probably don’t have an audience.
Pick: Bills

New England Patriots (6-3)(-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-5)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Can’t you just hear the sports media having an orgasm during this one. Tom Brady vs. Brett Favre! In Lambeau Field! OH MY GOD! Is there any way we could get Pat Summerall and John Madden to do this game?
Pick: Patriots

Chicago Bears (8-1)(-7) vs. New York Jets (5-4)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Bears continue their Jimmy Hoffa tour in Jersey against the surprising Jets. I believe the last team that had to play two consecutive games in the Meadowlands were the Redskins in 1999 (both victories by the way). Meanwhile, the Jets shocked everyone last week by beating the mighty Patriots in Foxboro. I’ve had several Patriots fans tell me this week that the Pats didn’t show up and the game was actually closer than the score indicated. Um, wrong. Everytime I turned the game on the Pats were getting dominated on both sides of the ball. The Jets offensive and defensive line controlled the game from start to finish. If anything, the score doesn’t reflect how badly the Jets pounded New England.
Pick: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-6)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Daunte Culpepper was an All-Pro for the Minnesota Vikings. Then tragedy struck (show stock footage of knee injury and boat party in Lake Minnetonka). Culpepper was determined to start over, so the Vikings traded him to Miami. Now his old team comes to town and Culpepper must prove he’s a winner. There’s just one problem…Daunte Culpepper isn’t playing! See Daunte Culpepper star in “Revenge from the Bench”, starting this Sunday at a stadium near you.
Pick: Dolphins

Detroit Lions (2-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-8)(-2)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
I have no interest in discussing this game. So, since I have the opportunity, let me talk about Michigan’s other semi-pro team.

This week, as most sports fans already know, the #2 Michigan Wolverines face the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes. This game is being billed as the “Game of the Century”. That’s great and all, but I have one small problem with that. We had a “Game of the Century” last year. In fact, we had two. First it was USC-Notre Dame and then it was USC-Texas. This century isn’t six years old yet and already we’ve had at least three games that supposedly only come around once in 100 years.

So are you buying this hype? I’m not. Over the last few years, I’ve come to respect college football more than I used to. But if there’s one thing I have no respect for, it’s Big Ten football. Someone go tell these coaches that we’re not in the 1960’s anymore. It’s all right to throw the ball more than 15 times a game. Is there a more uninspiring brand of football then run, run, run and defense, defense, defense? Boring, boring, boring. I am so tired of having ESPN broadcast every single Big Ten football game they can find when there are plenty of great games each week that we’re not able to see. Two weeks ago, for example, Texas A&M and Oklahoma played a thriller. However, everyone east of the Mississippi didn’t see it. Instead, we were stuck watching Ohio State and Illinois. At this point, I would rather watch a game featuring a bunch of nobodies than anyone in the Big Ten. At least the nobodies have a chance to put some points on the board.

The worst part is that the Big Ten is almost never competitive. Aside from the occasional challenge by Penn State, the Big Ten always comes down to Michigan and Ohio State. That’s why any other conference is more appealing. Even the SEC, a conference in which most teams use the Big Ten run and defense game plan, is interesting to watch. Every season there are four or five teams that could easily win the conference. Auburn beats Florida one week, then loses to LSU the next, who in turn, loses to Arkansas, who in turn loses to Florida. The games are unpredictable. The game plans are unpredictable. The conference as a whole is unpredictable. That’s what makes sports so exciting. Even though you think you have something figured out, all it takes is three hours and everything can change.

Big Ten football takes the fun out of sports. It’s Ohio State and Michigan every year. You could miss the game this Saturday and just catch it next year. It will have the same impact. It will mean just as much. These two schools are never really tested. All they do is beat up on Northwestern and Indiana every season, get hyped beyond belief in the media and the polls, and then face each other with the winner having a great shot at going to the championship game. That’s not sports. That’s marketing. That’s the NCAA building unnecessary hype for what is otherwise a pretty good rivalry. I plan on watching none of this game Saturday. I hope you’ll join me.
Pick: Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks (6-3)(-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
Can’t we just move the 49ers to Los Angeles already? Their new park will never be approved. Let’s just save everyone the time and effort and ship them further south to the Coliseum. Or to Mexico…I don’t think anyone would notice.
Pick: Seahawks

San Diego Chargers (7-2) vs. Denver Broncos (7-2)(-2.5)
8:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Note to AFC coaches: the Chargers are currently led by a quarterback who throws sidearm and doesn’t even throw to his best receiver. Can anyone please try stopping LaDainian Tomlinson? It would make sense. Why doesn’t anyone try putting eight in the box against him? Marty must just laugh hysterically when he gets behind closed doors. I’m sure he’s shocked that teams are more afraid of Big Bad Philip than of the best running back in the league.
Pick: Broncos

MONDAY
New York Giants (6-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Alltell Stadium
The Jaguars are world beaters…unless they have to play Houston. Seriously, is there a team out there that more resembles the Maryland Terrapins basketball team than Jacksonville? They’ll beat Duke twice a season (wins against Philly, Dallas, Pittsburgh) and then lose to Clemson (Houston twice). How could you possibly overlook the Texans after you already lost to them once? Does this team make any sense to anybody?
Pick: Jaguars

Maryland Basketball: A Fresh Start

Maryland Terrapins (3-0) vs.
St. John's Red Storm (2-0)
Madison Square Garden - New York, NY
2K Sports College Hoops Classic Semifinals

So it’s a new season for Maryland basketball. Hopefully it will be one that erases the crushing disappointment of how far this program has fallen the past two years. With a new season come new players. And I think I speak for most Maryland fans when they look at the roster and have no idea who half of these guys are. I really don’t follow recruiting that closely (and if you do then shame on you…find something better to do), but I’m sure most of these freshmen were not highly ranked. Which makes them exactly the kind of players that Gary Williams should be recruiting.

Look at the successful players that Williams has brought into College Park. Very few have ever been prized recruits. Williams found Joe Smith by accident while scouting another player. Same with Juan Dixon, Keith Booth and Exree Hipp. Lonny Baxter and Terrance Morris were nobodies and Williams was the only one who wanted them. Chris Wilcox was scouted but passed over by NC State and other Southern schools. The only player during Williams’ tenure that has come to Maryland as a prized recruit and succeeded was Steve Blake.

Now take a look at the list of sought after players that fizzled here at Maryland: Danny Miller, Drew Nicholas, John Gilchrist (with the exception of the 2004 ACC Tournament), Travis Garrison, etc… Gary doesn’t know what to do with highly touted freshmen. He yells at them, and gets no response. These kids have been coddled their entire high school career. Gary can’t make them better. His coaching style is better suited to a player that has nowhere else to go. When Gary yells at them they respond. They improve. They realize that it’s either deal with Williams’ dark side or hand back the scholarship and drop out of school.

So let’s look at some of the newcomers. For the first time in several years it looks like a very promising class (the same was said about the 2002 class, and you all know how that turned out). Greivis Vasquez is the most-hyped player. A 6-5 guard from Venezuela, he was expected to jump in and be the starter at point guard. However, in typical Williams fashion, the best recruit did not live up to expectations in camp. So lesser-pursued Eric Hayes has been getting the starts in the first three games. So far, Vasquez has been more of a scoring threat, but much less of a decent point guard. Hayes is averaging six assists a game and has done a great job of setting up Mike Jones and D.J. Strawberry. So look for Gary to continue using Hayes at point and Vasquez off the bench.

The new players in the frontcourt include freshmen Landon Milbourne and Jerome Burney. Milbourne has looked nothing but average in the first few games against inferior competition. Here’s another forward who doesn’t want to attack the basket. Didn’t Taj Holden and Garrison fill that role long enough? Milbourne averaged 11.5 minutes in the first three games and came up with a total of four rebounds. Can we please get a freshman that will rebound and go up strong for easy baskets? Just once. By the way…this guy Milbourne is 6-7 and 205 pounds. Players who are 6-3 should be 205 pounds. Let’s get this guy to Friedgen’s buffet line immediately. Burney looks promising, but he hasn’t played due to a foot injury. But he appears to be a player who will play above the rim and will get after loose balls.

The best new addition, at least in my mind, is junior transfer student Bambale Osby. He played two years ago at New Mexico. As a freshman, he saw considerable time on a team that won the Mountain West Conference. He also played with Lobo star and current pro Danny Granger. Osby is 6-8, 250 pounds, which is perfect for an inside banger in the ACC. I hate to say this so early in the season, but he reminds a little (emphasis on a little) of Lonny Baxter. Just a little. I’m not going to get carried away, but his style of play has several similarities. For someone 6-8/250, Osby moves very well and has great footwork inside. Just terrific footwork. He doesn’t seem to take missteps, he doesn’t put the ball on the floor, he just gets after the rim. That’s exactly what the Terps need.

These new cast of characters get to join Strawberry, Jones, Ekene Ibekwe, James Gist and Will Bowers in an effort to reclaim some pride. The starting five of Hayes-Strawberry-Jones-Gist-Ibekwe is pretty much what I would put on the floor right now. Gary is trying to establish a 10-man rotation (something that will be much easier to do when Burney is healthy) by giving Bowers, Vasquez and Osby significant playing time. Milbourne and Parrish Brown can come off the bench when needed. The Terps are legitimately 11-men deep. That may not be a good thing with all the inexperience on the roster, but it fits Williams’ relentless attacking style perfectly.

After cruising to three easy wins, the Terps go to New York City to face St. John’s in the Coach’s For Cancer/2K Sports Challenge/Black Coaches Association/Preseason NIT sponsored by Chick-Fil-A (does anybody really keep track of any of the preseason tournaments anymore). I believe - and someone correct me if I’m wrong - the last time these two met was in the 1999 Sweet 16. The Terps, led by Morris, didn’t score for something like the last ten minutes of the first half, and still almost won the game. St John’s, who at the time was coached by Mike Jarvis, went on to lose to the Ohio State Fightin’ Scoonie Penns in the next round. But technically, because former Buckeye coach Jim O’Brien is a scumbag, that game never happened. Ohio State was never in the 1999 tournament. Ignore what you may read elsewhere.

The Johnnies have since fallen on hard times. Jarvis left amid several losing seasons and rumors of illegal recruiting. Plus he couldn’t graduate anybody. Norm Roberts took over a couple of seasons ago and inherited a program that was one of the worst in the new 71-team Big East. Like Maryland, St. John’s appears to be a fringe NCAA Tournament team this year that has a brighter future in the next couple of seasons. Daryll Hill, Aaron Spears and Lamont Hamilton are all impact seniors that should be able to carry the team to a decent record. The offense runs through the point guard Hill. He has had several knee injuries the past few years. When he’s in the lineup, the offense produces. When he isn’t, they struggle.

The breakout player on the roster, and maybe even in the Big East, is junior swingman Avery Patterson. Patterson is averaging nearly 20 points a game so far this year (albeit against lesser competition). More impressive is his near 50% shooting mark through the first few games. The fifth starter is Anthony Mason Jr. (yes, son of crazy former NBA player Anthony Mason) who is only a sophomore. He would not be starting on most Big East teams, but the rest of St. John’s roster is young and unproven, so Roberts starts him. He has the potential in a couple of years to be someone similar to Byron Mouton, a scrappy player who is always in the right position to make a play. Every team needs one of those guys. Right now, Mason is still learning.

The Red Storm’s offense isn’t going to blow anyone off the court. Their strength is the multiple defensive looks that Roberts likes to throw out. Whatever defenses the Terps end up facing, you can bet the goal will be to encourage Maryland to shoot from the outside. The Terps still do not have a reliable 3-point shooter other than Jones, who is struggling to get going so far. In fact, Maryland as a whole is only 17 for 53 from beyond the arc, which translates into an awful 32%. The problem is, with Hamilton and Spears both being 6-10, the Terps won’t have it easy inside either. So Maryland will have to shoot well from the outside to win. Maryland will have the height advantage outside, as most of the Johnnies’ guards are 6-3 or smaller.

I think Jones gets going in this game. He always shows up for the big games and playing at Madison Square Garden should get him going. I would love to see more Osby inside. Maybe even a lineup with Strawberry running the point and Gist, Ibekwe and Osby all on the court at the same time. It’s worth a look. Regardless of the outcome, this is a great test for Maryland early on. They’re playing a de facto road game against a young, but somewhat talented Big East team. Unless they get blown out, this game won’t hurt them in the RPI. The more tests against quality opponents early in the season, the better (There are so many teams near this area Maryland should be scheduling home-and-homes with; West Virginia, Pitt, Penn State, Villanova, Rutgers, George Mason. I’ve given up hope that they’ll ever play Georgetown on a consistent basis. Why doesn’t Maryland schedule more games against average to above average “BCS” schools instead of allowing themselves to be sacrificial lambs in places like Illinois later this season?). I think this game will give us a great sense of which direction the Terps will be headed in this year. Let’s hope it’s on the way up.

Maryland 75
St. John’s 70

2006-2007 College Basketball Preview

Ah, college basketball time! And you thought I forgot. Here is a conference-by-conference prediction breakdown, with some extra analysis for the ACC. All of this is followed by my Top 25. This will be the last time you see my Top 25 until January, as anything before conference play starts is kind of pointless. Maryland analysis will continue this season, but only for conference games and reasonably important out of conference match-ups (the first one should be this Thursday’s game with St. John’s). Sorry if you were looking forward to an UMD-Florida A&M game preview. Any team I predict making the tournament from the Big Six conferences is denoted with a *.

ACC
North Carolina* - UNC should be the beast of this, and any other conference. They are my early favorite to win it all and Tyler Hansbrough is my early favorite for player of the year. Freshman point guard Tywon Lawson is legit, much better than Steve Blake or Greg Paulus were coming out of high school.
Boston College* - Replacing Craig Smith will be tough, but the Eagles still have Jared Dudley, Tyrese Rice, Sean Marshall and Sean Williams. This team is easily good enough to finish second and get to the second weekend in the big dance.
Georgia Tech* - Tons of young talent finally gets healthy. Ra’Sean Dickey leads the charge with Anthony Morrow in the supporting role. Freshman Thaddeus Young may be the national freshman of the year. Paul Hewitt will lead the Institute to a revival after a couple of down years.
Duke* - Without Backne and the Rapist, the majority of the offense is gone. Josh McRoberts will be a one-man show with the new freshman filling in where needed. Paulus’ injury will be costly in the first half of the season because there will be no chemistry between him and another great recruiting class.
Virginia* - I had them penciled in here before they beat Arizona. This is the darkhorse team in the conference, and maybe, in the nation. Sean Singletary is the second best player in the conference and J.R. Reynolds helps him create a very scary backcourt. Maybe I should have put them up higher.
Maryland – It looks like a good recruiting class, but the Terps will be relying on raw freshman talent at the point. Never good in the ACC. Even with a good point guard, there is still only one proven scorer on the team in Mike Jones. That wouldn’t be a problem save for the fact that Maryland probably has the conference’s worst defense.
Florida State – Like last season, it looks like FSU will be on the outside looking in come tournament time. Only if Isaiah Swann can reach his potential could FSU sneak into the tournament.
Virginia Tech – With all the tragedy they suffered last season behind them, the Hokies return the majority of their roster. They’ll probably be the most veteran team in the conference.
Clemson – A lot of average players on the roster. That’s better than most seasons for the Tigers, but not good enough any season in the ACC to be competitive. They must consistently beat someone other than Maryland before moving into the top half of the conference.
Wake Forest – Two years ago this team should have won the national championship. Now without Justin Gray and Eric Williams, there is very little for Skip Prosser to work with here. Not much more than unheralded underclassman and upperclass role players.
Miami – Guillermo Diaz and Robert Hite are gone and take most of Miami’s offense with them. The cupboard is empty at The U.
NC State – New coach, new system, no players = last place. NC State barely hung on to beat Winthrop the other night. Worse news: I no longer have Herb Sendek to make fun of during the long ACC season.

BIG EAST
Georgetown*
Pittsburgh*
Connecticut*
Marquette*
Syracuse*
DePaul*
Louisville*
Villanova
St. John's
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Providence
Cincinnati
Seton Hall
Rutgers
South Florida
Notes: Georgetown almost returns their entire team from last season, when they were the only team to seriously challenge Florida in March. Pittsburgh will be good, but they never have enough offense to do anything in the tournament. Connecticut lost a lot of talent, but like Duke, they never rebuild, just reload. Joining Virginia in the darkhorse category will be Marquette and DePaul. Really look out for the Golden Eagles in March…they could be a Final Four team (remember the name Dominic James). Villanova is on the decline, West Virginia will be in a freefall and St. John’s is starting to improve.

BIG TEN
Ohio State*
Illinois*
Wisconsin*
Michigan State*
Indiana*
Michigan
Iowa
Purdue
Penn State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Notes: Even without Greg Oden for a couple of months, Ohio State will be fine. Oden will return in time for the bulk of the conference season, which should give the Buckeyes the conference. Illinois will be better than most people think. Wisconsin, despite returning the majority of their roster, will be worse. Like Pitt, they never have enough offense to seriously contend. Kelvin Sampson will take Mike Davis’ talent to the tournament. Tommy Amaker will be fired after another near miss in Ann Arbor. And while they’re both too young this season, Purdue and Penn State will be very good teams next year.

BIG TWELVE
(North)
Kansas* - 1
Kansas State* - 5
Colorado - 8
Iowa State - 9
Missouri - 11
Nebraska - 12
(South)
Texas A&M* - 2
Texas* - 3
Texas Tech* - 4
Oklahoma State* - 6
Baylor - 7
Oklahoma – 10
Notes: Kansas is the class of the conference, but they’re not too far ahead of Texas A&M. I told all of you about the Aggies last season and NO ONE listened. Now everybody is on the bandwagon. Billy Gillespie is still driving the wagon, but I’m sitting in the co-pilot chair as the Aggies will most likely roll into Atlanta in early April. Texas will rely too much on freshmen. Texas Tech will surprise most as Bob Knight will easily pass Dean Smith on the all-time wins list. Bob Huggins will make a huge difference at K-State. And don’t look now but Baylor, after all the sanctions that occurred following the Patrick Dennehy murder and following cover-up, could actually make a run at a tournament bid. If not this year then next season. Without Sampson, Oklahoma falls off and Missouri continues to plummet into obscurity following the Quinn Snyder debacle.

PAC-10
Arizona*
UCLA*
Washington*
Oregon*
Washington State*
Southern Cal
California
Stanford
Oregon State
Arizona State
Notes: Without Jordan Farmar, UCLA will barely lose the conference crown to Arizona. Washington is back again behind Lorenzo Romar (Gillespie and Romar are my two favorite coaches in the country right now). They have all the makings of being a 4/5 seed in March again. In Eugene, it’s do or die for Ernie Kent and the Ducks, as they will only have access to Malik Harrison’s talent for one more season. Don't sleep on Wazzau. Their defense is terrific. They may just be my Texas A&M team this season. Southern Cal is a program on the rise as Stanford continues their downward spiral. Sendek ends up at ASU, and not surprisingly, they end up in the bottom of my projections.

SEC
(East)
Florida* - 2
Kentucky* - 4
Tennessee* - 5
Vanderbilt - 8
South Carolina - 9
Georgia - 10
(West)
LSU* - 1
Alabama* - 3
Arkansas* - 6
Mississippi State - 7
Ole Miss - 11
Auburn – 12
Notes: LSU will win this conference. The competition is a bit easier in the West, and the Tigers should be a bit more hungry than Florida (while his team may be hungry to win a championship, Glen Davis is just plain hungry…please find the man some KFC). From friends and other accounts, the defending champs seem to be hot-dogging it in practice and showed up for training camp out of shape. Alabama, like Marquette, could really sneak up on people in March. In Ronald Steele, the Tide has the best point guard in the country. That alone is enough to get my attention. Kentucky will be dangerous as always. Tennessee is due for a dropoff. Arkansas is back after a decent year. Stan Heath is close to turning Georgia around, but he needs another season. And finally, another one of my favorite coaches, Kevin Stallings, is on the hot seat at Vandy. Unfortunately, he probably won’t see another season for the Commodores.

MID-MAJORS
Atlantic-10: Xavier, UMass
C-USA: Memphis, Houston
Missouri Valley: Wichita State, Southern Illinois, Creighton
Mountain West: San Diego State, Air Force
WAC: Nevada
West Coast: Gonzaga
Notes: Memphis is the class of the “others”. They won’t be a #1 seed again this year, but they’ll cruise in C-USA. Wichita State is back and they’re as good, if not better, then they were last year (like A&M, another team that no one listened to me on). San Diego State could get as high as a 7 seed come tournament time. Nevada and Gonzaga both take steps backwards, but are still the best teams in their conferences by far. Creighton will return to their roll as bracket buster. I gave Houston a darkhorse label last year and they let me down. I’ll give Tom Penders another try. The surprise of the season could come from Amherst, as the Minutemen will fill the void left by George Washington and St. Joe’s at the top of the A-10. Look for UMass in the Big Dance for the first time since Marcus Camby played at Mullins Arena.

TOP 25
1 North Carolina
2 Kansas
3 LSU
4 Florida
5 Georgetown
6 Arizona
7 Ohio State
8 Texas A&M
9. UCLA
10 Alabama
11 Pittsburgh
12 Memphis
13 Illinois
14 Boston College
15 Wisconsin
16 Washington
17 Connecticut
18 Marquette
19 Georgia Tech
20 Syracuse
21 Duke
22 Kentucky
23 Creighton
24 Texas
25 Wichita State

Next Five: Tennessee, Virginia, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Nevada
Keep Going: DePaul, San Diego State, Southern Illinois, Kansas State, Louisville

Redskins at Eagles: Deja Vu All Over Again

Washington Redskins (3-5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
I’ll be honest. You can’t call the win last Sunday as anything more than a fluke. Terrell Owens shouldn’t have dropped his touchdown pass. The kick shouldn’t have been blocked. The facemask shouldn’t have occurred, and shouldn’t have been worth 15 yards. And Nick Novak’s last second kick shouldn’t have bent three different ways before just clearing the bottom right corner of the goalposts.

However, it was about time the Redskins got a break or two. From Clinton Portis hurting himself in the first preseason game making, of all things, a tackle, from Pierson Prioleau getting hurt on the first play of the first game without being touched, from the refs giving Dallas almost every single call in the first meeting, to Vince Young deciding to play like an All-Pro for the only time all season, it’s about time that something went right. The win against Dallas is just the first in what should be several cosmic breaks the Redskins should receive coming down the stretch.

Interference from the Big Guy not withstanding, the Redskins take to the road (again…it feels like they’ve been on the road all season) to face a team coming off a bye week (again…this will be the fourth time the Skins have to do so, which is two more than any other team in the league). In other words, status quo for the season. By the way, the team they’re playing is 7-0 the last seven years coming off their bye week. Lovely. Thanks NFL!

Anyway, the Redskins get their first look at the T.O. free, and therefore, turmoil free Philadelphia Eagles. They should be turmoil free, right? After all, T.O. was their only problem last season. Now that he’s gone, I’m sure Philly will resume their winning ways and return to the Super Bowl.

Except the Eagles are 4-4 and looking at an impossible stretch of eight games that they would be lucky to split. Not only that, they are 4-4 following one of the easiest first half schedules and they should have won at least six games. That terrific leader Donovan McNabb is still going through in-fighting in his locker room and no longer has T.O. to blame. Their defense is aging and can’t stop the run. Despite having one of the most multi-dimensional running backs in the league, Andy Reid continues to insist that the Eagles throw 61% of the time. And the fans, as usual, are as obnoxious as ever. But it’s a good thing they got rid of T.O., otherwise they’d be in real trouble.

So what’s the excuse this year in Philadelphia? I know last year they blamed everything on T.O. and injuries. Again, Owens is long gone, and the Eagles have been relatively healthy. McNabb hasn’t come up with another phony injury, but the Eagles haven’t completely tanked yet, and we’ll see what happens when Philly starts losing and their playoff hopes fade away.

The excuse this year is the play-calling. As I said earlier, the Eagles feel that they have to pass 61% of the time. They can’t control the clock at all. McNabb, without T.O. or any other premier receiver, has reverted back to the average quarterback he was two or three seasons ago when he could barely complete half of his passes. The Eagles defense is on the field 8-10 minutes more than the opposition because he offense can’t consistently run. Even when the Eagles score, they do it so quickly, and in bunches, that they put the ball right back into the hands of their opponents so they can tie it right back up. And as I mentioned, their run defense is horrible and it’s relatively easy for other teams to move the ball on them and keep McNabb off the field

So how did this team get to 4-4? Well, playing Houston, Green Bay and San Francisco certainly helps. But like the Redskins, they’ve also run into some bad luck. Most of it was their own doing. They collapsed against the Giants. They allowed the Saints to march on a game-winning seven-minute drive. They allowed the Bucs to outplay them for three quarters, only to comeback and then lose on a ridiculous 62-yard field goal. Even I almost felt sorry for them after that one. Almost.

When it comes down to it, the Redskins are still at a disadvantage. I already mentioned that the Redskins will be facing the Eagles off a bye, and any team with two weeks to prepare for a home game should be able to win. The Skins and Eagles are pretty much evenly matched, but with an extra week to prepare and get healthy, plus playing in front of the nasties in the stands, the Eagles should definitely be seven point favorites.

The Eagles are going to score their points. The Eagles can score quickly and often, and the Redskins defense allows offenses to do the same. But if the Redskins can get Portis going, they should be able to control the line of scrimmage and the tempo and keep McNabb on the sidelines. They do that, they win. They need to take the blueprint that Jacksonville used two weeks ago against the Eagles and replicate it as closely as possible.

I don’t know why, but I feel pretty confident about this game. More so than any other this year. I think the win against Dallas will spur the Redskins on and wake them up. A win here, and the Redskins, surprisingly enough, get back into contention in the wide-open NFC. The Eagles seem to be a sinking ship. They don’t look like they have any confidence in McNabb or any confidence in Reid’s play-calling. Hopefully Reid didn’t get wise during the past two weeks.

NFL Week 10: Midseason Report

Considering some of the upsets that occurred last week, my 8-5 record was pretty good for week 9 (Chicago losing to Miami? Detroit beating Atlanta? Minnesota losing to San Francisco? WTF??). However, the Colts won which got rid of any suspicion that the Patriots may actually be the best team in the AFC. Most importantly, the Redskins won, which got rid of the silly notion that Dallas was going to be a playoff team. We’ve reached the middle of the season, so my brief midseason review will be followed by my second half predictions and my picks for week 10. Records, please:
Overall: 79-41 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 70-46-4

MIDSEASON POWER RANKINGS
1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
3. Chicago
4. San Diego
5. New England
6. New Orleans
7. New York Giants
8. Kansas City
9. Baltimore
10. Jacksonville
11. Seattle
12. Atlanta
13. Carolina
14. Cincinnati
15. New York Jets
16. Philadelphia
17. Dallas
18. Minnesota
19. Washington
20. St. Louis
21. Green Bay
22. Pittsburgh
23. Buffalo
24. Cleveland
25. San Francisco
26. Miami
27. Tampa Bay
28. Tennessee
29. Detroit
30. Houston
31. Oakland
32. Arizona

Projected Standings

AFC EAST
New England 12-4
New York Jets 8-8
Buffalo 6-10
Miami 5-11
Notes: New England, once again, has run away with the division. The only way for the Jets to remain competitive is for them to win this week in Foxboro. Not likely.

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati 10-6
Baltimore 10-6
Pittsburgh 6-10
Cleveland 4-12
Notes: Despite a favorable second half schedule (in fact, most of their schedule has been very favorable), I can’t shake the nagging feeling that the Ravens aren’t for real. Even if they do win this division, they are a flawed team at many levels and won’t go anywhere in the postseason. I still like Cincinnati to turn it around, beat Baltimore at home, and eek out the division title.

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 15-1
Jacksonville 10-6
Tennessee 5-11
Houston 4-12
Notes: Indianapolis will lose one, and only one, game the remainder of the year. I’ll figure out which game they’ll lose at a later date. Jacksonville can get plenty healthy off their second half schedule, which features Houston, Tennessee, Buffalo and Miami.

AFC WEST
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Oakland 3-13
Notes: I was the only one who picked Kansas City to win this division at the beginning of the season, and I’m staying with my pick. They have crucial Thanksgiving game with Denver that could shift the balance in their favor, along with two winnable games against Oakland and games against Cleveland and Miami. San Diego’s second half schedule will knock them down to third.

NFC EAST
New York Giants 10-6
Dallas 8-8
Washington 8-8
Philadelphia 7-9
Notes: The Giants have proven the last few weeks that (a) they are the best team in the division and (b) not one of the top three teams in the conference. Dallas’ schedule and Washington’s inconsistency will keep both at .500. As for Philly, here is their second half schedule (WAS, TENN, @INDY, CAR, @WAS, @NYG, @DAL, ATL…good luck with all that).

NFC NORTH
Chicago 12-4
Minnesota 8-8
Green Bay 6-10
Detroit 6-10
Notes: The Bears loss last week means little in terms of the division, but shows how badly they’ll be beat come playoff time. Of all teams, Detroit could actually make a run with their incredibly soft second half schedule. Because they’re Detroit, they won’t do so, but they have a chance.

NFC SOUTH
New Orleans 10-6
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 9-7
Tampa Bay 5-11
Notes: This division is wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open. None of these teams have easy second halves, and all three teams at the top (even the Saints) have failed to show up certain weeks. I like the Saints because they already have a game on everyone else and will continue to have the emotional advantage throughout the season

NFC WEST
Seattle 10-6
St. Louis 8-8
San Francisco 6-10
Arizona 3-13
Notes: The Rams had their chance to control this division, but predictably failed. Even if they win in Seattle this weekend, there is no way the Rams can get above .500 with their apathetic play from week to week. Seattle’s easy schedule alone is good enough for four to five non-challenging wins the remainder of the way.

First-half MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson has taken a team with virtually no quarterback, no wide receiver threats, a terrible secondary and maybe the worst big game coach of all-time, and elevated them to 6-2. Next question.

First-half coach: Sean Payton. No one had the Saints at 6-2 right now. Not even me. Payton could have used the trauma from Katrina and the failures of the Jim Haslett era as excuses. Instead, he used them as motivation and his team has responded in tough circumstances.

Surprisingly good team: New Orleans. See above.

Surprisingly bad team: Miami. With apologies to Arizona, Pittsburgh and Washington, Miami was expected by many to compete for the Super Bowl. I didn’t go that crazy, but I had them in the playoffs. Not looking too likely now.

Three teams that will improve: Seattle, Cincinnati, Kansas City

Three teams that will decline: Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego

Super Bowl Pick: I took Indianapolis in August; I’m sticking with Indianapolis in November.

SUNDAY
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)(-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-6)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
The Chiefs continue to roll with Damon Huard. Larry Johnson is healthy. The defense, believe it or not, is actually getting its act together. They looked very good against a decent Rams offense last week. This is a consistent team that has been winning while injured and has a solid running game. That is the definition of a dangerous playoff team. As for Miami, a lot of things broke their way last week, including Rex Grossman forgetting that his team was not wearing white uniforms, for them to get a win over Chicago.
Pick: Chiefs

Houston Texans (2-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
As much as I like Jacksonville, I get nervous taking them whenever they’re favored by more than a touchdown. “The Gary Williams” effect can be tacked on to the Jaguars, which means they’ll play up to good teams and down to inferior competition. One needs to look no further than the beatdown they received at the hands of Houston only a few weeks ago. The words beatdown and Houston should never be that close together in a sentence. Look for Jacksonville to take it out on them.
Pick: Jaguars

San Diego Chargers (6-2)(-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-4)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Philip Rivers is going to cost San Diego eventually, right? Marty is going to choke eventually, right? The Bengals are going to have to turn this thing around eventually, right?
Pick: Chargers

Cleveland Browns (2-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
My record picking the Falcons: 1-7. My record picking the rest of the NFL: 78-34. I hate Michael Vick.
Pick: Falcons

Baltimore Ravens (6-2)(-7) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-6)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
I’m tired of talking about Baltimore. This isn’t 2000, Trent Dilfer no longer plays here, and Double Homicide is no longer in his prime. The biggest Super Bowl fluke in history will not repeat itself. But they’ll beat the crap out of Vince Young.
Pick: Ravens

Buffalo Bills (3-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-0)(-12)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
Horray for the Colts! Delivering a beatdown of their own, on the road, on National TV and against “the AFC’s best team”. I know, I know, it’s only November. But, by virtue of beating Denver and New England, Indianapolis will once again not have to leave their dome in January.
Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers (3-5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-4)(-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Did someone forget to tell Minnesota that they weren’t playing the 1980’s 49ers last week? Did Brad Johnson suddenly forget how to play football? He looked horrible against one of the worst defenses in the league. How did the Redskins lose to this team? So frustrated…
Pick: Packers

New York Jets (4-4) vs. New England Patriots (6-2)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Now that the Patriots have played their one challenging game of the season, they get to step back into their easy division. Doesn’t this seem like New England’s seventh division game already? They do play teams other than the Jets and Bills, right?
Pick: Patriots

Santa Clara 49ers (3-5) vs. Detroit Lions (2-6)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
This is the NFC’s version of the Toilet Bowl. Loser gets to play Arizona next week.
Pick: Lions, 49ers cover

Denver Broncos (6-2)(-9) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-6)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
The Broncos really have no business being 6-2. Their defense isn’t that good. Indy shredded it. Pittsburgh shredded it. Oakland…well, Oakland couldn’t shred their practice team defense. Their best offensive play right now is Lamont Jordan going up the middle for a loss of two yards. At least it’s not a sack or a turnover.
Pick: Broncos

New Orleans Saints (6-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)(-4.5)
4:15 p.m. Heinz Field
As long as Cowher insists on starting the injured Ben Roethlisberger, I’m going to have to continue to pick against Pittsburgh. I know that I’m going to keep picking against the Steelers, and one of these games, they’re going to wake up and realize that they shouldn’t be 2-6, and screw up my pick. Could easily happen here.
Pick: Saints

St. Louis Rams (4-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-3)(-3)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
This game isn’t as important as all the analysts are making it out to be. Seattle has already won in St. Louis, so even if they lose here, they are still the hands-down favorite to win the West. The Rams will not be better than 8-8. Seattle can cruise to a 10-6 record.
Pick: Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (4-4)(-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-7)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
“During the return, personal foul, facemask, number 86. 15 yards from the end of the run. There will be one un-timed down.” Hehehehe…
Pick: Cowboys

Chicago Bears (7-1) vs. New York Giants (6-2)(-1)
8:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
This is the game that NBC decided to flex to Sunday night? Snooze. First team to 17 wins. I’d rather watch the Amazing Race and catch the rerun of the Nip/Tuck episode I missed.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-4)(-9)
8:30 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Let’s just say, if the Panthers lose here, then my Indy-Carolina Super Bowl prediction will only be half right. Seriously though, what happened to this team in the fourth quarter against Dallas two weeks ago? They dominate the first three quarters, Dallas continues to run the same plays, and all of a sudden, it looks like Emmett Smith is back out there. That may be one of the strangest fourth quarter collapses I’ve ever seen. It looked like Carolina just mailed in the fourth quarter of a game they should have won easily.
Pick: Panthers

The Redskins play their final road game in the division this Sunday. Can they pull the upset and get back into the thick of things in the NFC? Probably not, but we’ll discuss it tomorrow.

Cowboys at Redskins: Romosexual

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) vs. Washington Redskins (2-5)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
It sucks that I don’t have more time to write. As I said, it’s been real hectic at work recently, and yesterday was my birthday. So I haven’t really been able to find the time to talk about the Redskins-Cowboys. Which is a shame…I wish I could give this game the time it deserves

Let’s just through the basics. The obvious story line is the Cowboys quarterback situation. Tony Romo has one decent game (one decent quarter, really) and suddenly he’s Roger Staubach. I watched the first half of the Carolina-Dallas game and he looked terrible. No better than Drew Bledsoe. And from the highlights I saw, it looked like the only thing Romo really did in the fourth quarter was turn around and hand the ball off to Julius Jones and Marion Barber.

Romo could be pretty good. I could be wrong. I don’t know. I’ve seen him play for a total of three NFL quarters discounting what I saw in preseason. One fourth quarter doesn’t make a season, a career or a quarterback. So Romo is still an unknown factor. He could go off for another big week, or he could easily look like he did against the Giants.

At lot of what will happen will come down to what the Redskins defense decides to do. For the first time the entire season, the Redskins will have all starting 11 defensive players in the lineup. Now while most of those players are playing at far less than 100% (Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, Joe Salava’a, Philip Daniels, Cornelius Griffin and Lemar Marshall are all still suffering from injuries but will apparently play). Still, the fact that the entire defense will be playing may lead to Gregg Williams actually calling his normal defensive sets. But probably not. With the weapons that Romo has, he doesn’t need much time to find capable receivers. The non-blitzing strategy completely failed in the first meeting against Bledsoe, and now the Redskins have to play a quarterback who can buy himself extra time.

The real problem will be on the offense. Clinton Portis is still banged up. Jon Jansen, although not listed on the injury report this week, can barely walk in practice. Most importantly, Santana Moss is likely out. Moss was declared out today, despite the inside information I received yesterday from Redskins’ beat writer David Elfin of the Washington Times who said he was almost 100% certain Moss would play. Even though Elfin usually has the good inside dirt, it looked like he let me down this time.

Missing Moss this week may actually benefit the Redskins. It will force Mark Brunell to look to someone other than the speedy Miami receiver. One of the obvious problems the offense has faced this season is the reliance on Moss despite other dangerous receivers. So Brunell will actually have to throw to Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El. Maybe Brunell will learn to trust his other highly paid receivers. Since it appears the hamstring injury will only sideline Moss for this week, that will be nice for the rest of the season if Brunell can get into a rhythm with Lloyd and El.

It would be nice to see the Redskins establish the run early, but it’s clear that Al Saunders refuses to do that. It would be nice to see the Redskins throw the kitchen sink at Romo, but it’s become clear that Williams will refuse to do that. So in other words, the same problems that have plagued the Redskins the last three weeks will most likely continue.

The Redskins have had a tough first half schedule and finally get a home division game. They are far from done in the NFC. They were in a worst situation last season with less time to make up ground, and came back to make the playoffs. The Redskins still have all three of their home division games left to play and they also have a couple of winnable road games. On top of this, Dallas and Philadelphia have just killer second half schedules, and couple of wins are all the Redskins need to get some momentum and get back in the race. But the Redskins must beat Dallas. This is their last stand. It’s one thing to lose to the Cowboys on the road, but you must defend your home turf in the division. The Redskins are finally given a chance to do that after going two months without a division home game (it’s also their first home game against a conference opponent since the opener). There should be no excuses for a loss here. The Skins, despite the injuries, have had two weeks to prepare for their archrival at home. They’ve had two weeks to figure out how to beat this fraud Romo. They’ve had two weeks to straighten out some horrendous play calling. They’ve had two weeks to figure out a way to stop embarrassing themselves and underachieving despite a wealth of talent. They’ve had two weeks to figure out how to save their season. Let’s see if they’ve learned anything.