NFL Week 10: Midseason Report

Considering some of the upsets that occurred last week, my 8-5 record was pretty good for week 9 (Chicago losing to Miami? Detroit beating Atlanta? Minnesota losing to San Francisco? WTF??). However, the Colts won which got rid of any suspicion that the Patriots may actually be the best team in the AFC. Most importantly, the Redskins won, which got rid of the silly notion that Dallas was going to be a playoff team. We’ve reached the middle of the season, so my brief midseason review will be followed by my second half predictions and my picks for week 10. Records, please:
Overall: 79-41 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 70-46-4

MIDSEASON POWER RANKINGS
1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
3. Chicago
4. San Diego
5. New England
6. New Orleans
7. New York Giants
8. Kansas City
9. Baltimore
10. Jacksonville
11. Seattle
12. Atlanta
13. Carolina
14. Cincinnati
15. New York Jets
16. Philadelphia
17. Dallas
18. Minnesota
19. Washington
20. St. Louis
21. Green Bay
22. Pittsburgh
23. Buffalo
24. Cleveland
25. San Francisco
26. Miami
27. Tampa Bay
28. Tennessee
29. Detroit
30. Houston
31. Oakland
32. Arizona

Projected Standings

AFC EAST
New England 12-4
New York Jets 8-8
Buffalo 6-10
Miami 5-11
Notes: New England, once again, has run away with the division. The only way for the Jets to remain competitive is for them to win this week in Foxboro. Not likely.

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati 10-6
Baltimore 10-6
Pittsburgh 6-10
Cleveland 4-12
Notes: Despite a favorable second half schedule (in fact, most of their schedule has been very favorable), I can’t shake the nagging feeling that the Ravens aren’t for real. Even if they do win this division, they are a flawed team at many levels and won’t go anywhere in the postseason. I still like Cincinnati to turn it around, beat Baltimore at home, and eek out the division title.

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 15-1
Jacksonville 10-6
Tennessee 5-11
Houston 4-12
Notes: Indianapolis will lose one, and only one, game the remainder of the year. I’ll figure out which game they’ll lose at a later date. Jacksonville can get plenty healthy off their second half schedule, which features Houston, Tennessee, Buffalo and Miami.

AFC WEST
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Oakland 3-13
Notes: I was the only one who picked Kansas City to win this division at the beginning of the season, and I’m staying with my pick. They have crucial Thanksgiving game with Denver that could shift the balance in their favor, along with two winnable games against Oakland and games against Cleveland and Miami. San Diego’s second half schedule will knock them down to third.

NFC EAST
New York Giants 10-6
Dallas 8-8
Washington 8-8
Philadelphia 7-9
Notes: The Giants have proven the last few weeks that (a) they are the best team in the division and (b) not one of the top three teams in the conference. Dallas’ schedule and Washington’s inconsistency will keep both at .500. As for Philly, here is their second half schedule (WAS, TENN, @INDY, CAR, @WAS, @NYG, @DAL, ATL…good luck with all that).

NFC NORTH
Chicago 12-4
Minnesota 8-8
Green Bay 6-10
Detroit 6-10
Notes: The Bears loss last week means little in terms of the division, but shows how badly they’ll be beat come playoff time. Of all teams, Detroit could actually make a run with their incredibly soft second half schedule. Because they’re Detroit, they won’t do so, but they have a chance.

NFC SOUTH
New Orleans 10-6
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 9-7
Tampa Bay 5-11
Notes: This division is wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open. None of these teams have easy second halves, and all three teams at the top (even the Saints) have failed to show up certain weeks. I like the Saints because they already have a game on everyone else and will continue to have the emotional advantage throughout the season

NFC WEST
Seattle 10-6
St. Louis 8-8
San Francisco 6-10
Arizona 3-13
Notes: The Rams had their chance to control this division, but predictably failed. Even if they win in Seattle this weekend, there is no way the Rams can get above .500 with their apathetic play from week to week. Seattle’s easy schedule alone is good enough for four to five non-challenging wins the remainder of the way.

First-half MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson has taken a team with virtually no quarterback, no wide receiver threats, a terrible secondary and maybe the worst big game coach of all-time, and elevated them to 6-2. Next question.

First-half coach: Sean Payton. No one had the Saints at 6-2 right now. Not even me. Payton could have used the trauma from Katrina and the failures of the Jim Haslett era as excuses. Instead, he used them as motivation and his team has responded in tough circumstances.

Surprisingly good team: New Orleans. See above.

Surprisingly bad team: Miami. With apologies to Arizona, Pittsburgh and Washington, Miami was expected by many to compete for the Super Bowl. I didn’t go that crazy, but I had them in the playoffs. Not looking too likely now.

Three teams that will improve: Seattle, Cincinnati, Kansas City

Three teams that will decline: Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego

Super Bowl Pick: I took Indianapolis in August; I’m sticking with Indianapolis in November.

SUNDAY
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)(-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-6)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
The Chiefs continue to roll with Damon Huard. Larry Johnson is healthy. The defense, believe it or not, is actually getting its act together. They looked very good against a decent Rams offense last week. This is a consistent team that has been winning while injured and has a solid running game. That is the definition of a dangerous playoff team. As for Miami, a lot of things broke their way last week, including Rex Grossman forgetting that his team was not wearing white uniforms, for them to get a win over Chicago.
Pick: Chiefs

Houston Texans (2-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
As much as I like Jacksonville, I get nervous taking them whenever they’re favored by more than a touchdown. “The Gary Williams” effect can be tacked on to the Jaguars, which means they’ll play up to good teams and down to inferior competition. One needs to look no further than the beatdown they received at the hands of Houston only a few weeks ago. The words beatdown and Houston should never be that close together in a sentence. Look for Jacksonville to take it out on them.
Pick: Jaguars

San Diego Chargers (6-2)(-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-4)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Philip Rivers is going to cost San Diego eventually, right? Marty is going to choke eventually, right? The Bengals are going to have to turn this thing around eventually, right?
Pick: Chargers

Cleveland Browns (2-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
My record picking the Falcons: 1-7. My record picking the rest of the NFL: 78-34. I hate Michael Vick.
Pick: Falcons

Baltimore Ravens (6-2)(-7) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-6)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
I’m tired of talking about Baltimore. This isn’t 2000, Trent Dilfer no longer plays here, and Double Homicide is no longer in his prime. The biggest Super Bowl fluke in history will not repeat itself. But they’ll beat the crap out of Vince Young.
Pick: Ravens

Buffalo Bills (3-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-0)(-12)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
Horray for the Colts! Delivering a beatdown of their own, on the road, on National TV and against “the AFC’s best team”. I know, I know, it’s only November. But, by virtue of beating Denver and New England, Indianapolis will once again not have to leave their dome in January.
Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers (3-5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-4)(-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Did someone forget to tell Minnesota that they weren’t playing the 1980’s 49ers last week? Did Brad Johnson suddenly forget how to play football? He looked horrible against one of the worst defenses in the league. How did the Redskins lose to this team? So frustrated…
Pick: Packers

New York Jets (4-4) vs. New England Patriots (6-2)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Now that the Patriots have played their one challenging game of the season, they get to step back into their easy division. Doesn’t this seem like New England’s seventh division game already? They do play teams other than the Jets and Bills, right?
Pick: Patriots

Santa Clara 49ers (3-5) vs. Detroit Lions (2-6)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
This is the NFC’s version of the Toilet Bowl. Loser gets to play Arizona next week.
Pick: Lions, 49ers cover

Denver Broncos (6-2)(-9) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-6)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
The Broncos really have no business being 6-2. Their defense isn’t that good. Indy shredded it. Pittsburgh shredded it. Oakland…well, Oakland couldn’t shred their practice team defense. Their best offensive play right now is Lamont Jordan going up the middle for a loss of two yards. At least it’s not a sack or a turnover.
Pick: Broncos

New Orleans Saints (6-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)(-4.5)
4:15 p.m. Heinz Field
As long as Cowher insists on starting the injured Ben Roethlisberger, I’m going to have to continue to pick against Pittsburgh. I know that I’m going to keep picking against the Steelers, and one of these games, they’re going to wake up and realize that they shouldn’t be 2-6, and screw up my pick. Could easily happen here.
Pick: Saints

St. Louis Rams (4-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-3)(-3)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
This game isn’t as important as all the analysts are making it out to be. Seattle has already won in St. Louis, so even if they lose here, they are still the hands-down favorite to win the West. The Rams will not be better than 8-8. Seattle can cruise to a 10-6 record.
Pick: Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (4-4)(-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-7)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
“During the return, personal foul, facemask, number 86. 15 yards from the end of the run. There will be one un-timed down.” Hehehehe…
Pick: Cowboys

Chicago Bears (7-1) vs. New York Giants (6-2)(-1)
8:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
This is the game that NBC decided to flex to Sunday night? Snooze. First team to 17 wins. I’d rather watch the Amazing Race and catch the rerun of the Nip/Tuck episode I missed.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-4)(-9)
8:30 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Let’s just say, if the Panthers lose here, then my Indy-Carolina Super Bowl prediction will only be half right. Seriously though, what happened to this team in the fourth quarter against Dallas two weeks ago? They dominate the first three quarters, Dallas continues to run the same plays, and all of a sudden, it looks like Emmett Smith is back out there. That may be one of the strangest fourth quarter collapses I’ve ever seen. It looked like Carolina just mailed in the fourth quarter of a game they should have won easily.
Pick: Panthers

The Redskins play their final road game in the division this Sunday. Can they pull the upset and get back into the thick of things in the NFC? Probably not, but we’ll discuss it tomorrow.