NFL Week 4: A True Bye Week For Me

The poor performances stop this week. I’m guaranteeing it. Last week’s 8-7 overall mark and the 7-6-2 performance against the spread were not acceptable for the second week in a row. Here’s how it stands up after three:
Overall: 27-18 (60%)
Vs. Spread: 23-19-3

Luckily for me, the Redskins have a bye week, so this is all you are getting from me until next Thursday.

SUNDAY

Oakland Raiders (1-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-3)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
The Dolphins stink. Ronnie Brown manages to run for three touchdowns and they still lose to an equally terrible Jets team. Meanwhile, the Raiders (as I’ve been saying) are not as bad as most people think they are. They’ve played three close games, including taking the Broncos to overtime on the road. This team may not win eight games, but they shouldn’t lose more than ten.
Pick: Raiders

Houston Texans (2-1)(-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Matt Schaub should be starting for the Falcons right now. You think Atlanta made a mistake letting him go? This is a great litmus test game for the Texans. Anytime a team reaches the quarter poll at 3-1, they deserve recognition. If the Texans are to be taken seriously, they must beat the worst team in the NFL and do it handily. While I don’t think Houston is capable of a sound beatdown, I think Schaub should be able to lead his new team to win against whatever leftovers and scrubs the Falcons are lining up Sunday.
Pick: Texans

Baltimore Ravens (2-1)(-4.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-2)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
How does a team, with a supposedly magnificent defense, surrender a 17-point late third quarter lead at home, to the Arizona Cardinals? Brian Billick is the head coach.
Pick: Ravens

Chicago Bears (1-2)(-3) vs. Detroit Lions (2-1)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
I have no confidence in Brian Griese being any better than Rex Grossman. However, I still have no confidence picking the Lions whatsoever. So I’ll wuss out here, and take the Bears straight up, but the Lions against the spread. I’ll at least be right once.
Pick: Bears, Lions cover

Green Bay Packers (3-0)(-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
The Packers at 4-0? Something doesn’t seem right about that. Give me the home team in a building where Brett Favre has always played badly.
Pick: Vikings

St. Louis Rams (0-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-0)(-14)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
Nothing like a two touchdown spread to make this pick an easy one. And before we get carried away with the Cowboys offense, let’s remember that they’ve played three defenses that are statistically in the bottom half of the NFL. That includes Chicago’s D, which is really banged up and nowhere near as good as it has been the last few seasons.
Pick: Cowboys, Rams cover

New York Jets (1-2)(-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The Jets should never be favored on the road this season. I don’t care if they’re playing the University of Buffalo.
Pick: Bills

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-1)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Since I don’t know who is starting at quarterback for Carolina, I have to assume it’s the backup David Carr. And that’s what I’m basing this pick on.
Pick: Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks (2-1)(-1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
The 49ers faced their first tough test of the season, and in a complete shock, they were embarrassed by the Steelers. Who could have seen that coming? I don’t think “Real Test #2” is going to go that much better for them.
Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)(-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Was that really Kurt Warner torching the Ravens the defense last week? I hardly recognized him since he wasn’t on his posterior in the backfield with the ball bouncing away from him. This could be a trap game for the Steelers, considering that Ken Whisenhunt surely has some tricks planned against his old team. I have faith in my new favorite coach Mike Tomlin getting the job done.
Pick: Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-2)(-11.5)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
LaDainian Tomlinson didn’t come close to rushing for 100 yards and the Chargers end up losing to Green Bay. What exactly did Norv Turner expect last weekend when his genius offensive gameplan was being put in to motion?
Pick: Chargers, Chiefs cover

Denver Broncos (2-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-0)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. RCA Dome
Like I told you at the beginning of the season, Jay Cutler is talented, has all the tools necessary to succeed and will one day be a great quarterback. Just not this year. Two very close wins and a blowout loss at home doesn’t bode well for the Broncos. Especially when visiting Indianapolis, where they’ve been blown out several times in the past few years
Pick: Colts

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)(-2) vs. New York Giants (1-2)
8:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Remember opening week when the Giants played Dallas. I was happy because one of them would fall to 0-1. This week will be even better, because one of these teams will fall to 1-3 and basically have their season end only one month into the season.
Pick: Eagles

MONDAY

New England Patriots (3-0)(-8) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
8:30 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
What I said for the Dallas offense goes the same for New England. They’ve played three defenses ranked 22nd, 28th and 32nd. Sorry if I’m not impressed. Here comes the 29th ranked defense to help New England some more.
Pick: Patriots, Bengals cover

Bye Week: Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington

Giants at Redskins: Kick 'Em While They're Down

New York Giants (0-2) at Washington Redskins (2-0)
4:15 p.m. FedEx Field
It’s like déjà vu all over again. Doesn’t this season just reek of 2005? Start out with an ugly and close win at home against an overmatched opponent with offensive issues (In 2005 it was Chicago. This year it was Miami). Next, grab a win against a division opponent on the road on Monday Night Football (Dallas in 2005 in the famous Santana Moss game. Obviously the Eagles from last Monday for 2007). All the signs are there. An offense that couldn’t do squat the year before, all of a sudden converting key third downs and getting points in the second half. A defense, led by a coach whose large ego is famous throughout the league and believed to be the reason said defense is failing, suddenly becoming airtight. An early bye week on the schedule (In 2005 it was week three, and it will be week four this year). Injuries to the offensive line. It’s even to the point where the media is already labeling the Redskins the worst undefeated team of all-time. Which is exactly what the media said in 2005 when the Skins started 3-0. Say what you will about the Redskins, and I will shortly, but the Skins are one of only ten teams that still have no losses. And four those teams are the Texans, Packers, 49ers and Lions. I think we can all agree that the Skins are much better than all four of those frauds.

The coincidences are very freaky. But freaky in a good way. The Redskins ended up making the playoffs and winning a game in 2005. That wouldn’t be a terrible outcome for this 2007 season.

I ended my last Redskins post talking about the insignificance of last Monday night’s game if the Redskins ended up losing. I figured they would. I’m a diehard fan, and when it comes to the Skins, I’m an optimist. I just didn’t see them going into Philly and winning. What I didn’t talk about last week was the possible significance of a win over the suddenly hapless Eagles. This win is HUGE. As big as the win over Dallas was two seasons ago. All of a sudden, the Redskins are 1-0 in the division, two games ahead of Philadelphia and still have their three division home games upcoming. I look at football just like I do college basketball. You hold serve at home and steal a road game here and there, and you end up with a pretty good season. The Redskins stole one of those road wins on Monday.

Now the goal is not to give it back. Again, the Redskins have issues entering their game this week. The loss of Randy Thomas was the second lineman in as many weeks. At this point, Joe Bugel will be playing on the offensive line instead of coaching them by week nine. Ray Brown still looks like he’s in good shape. Can we sign him? Mark May has lost some weight but still looks game ready. Can someone put out a call to Joe Jacoby while we’re at it?

As of right now, the best move of the entire off-season was stealing Pete Kendall away from the Jets. Not only did the Skins grab a much needed veteran, they weakened a team that is on their schedule. And now, with the injuries to Thomas and Jon Jansen, adding Kendall for a second day draft pick looks absolutely brilliant. In the future, when criticizing Daniel Snyder and his penchant for trading draft picks, please don’t forget to bring this trade up for discussion.

For the second straight week the running game looked terrific despite the loss of an offensive lineman midway through the game. The defense bent, but didn’t break in the end. All receivers not named Brandon Lloyd found ways to get open. Shaun Suisham delivered two more clutch field goals. Heck, this looks like an actual football team here.

I’m still a little bit distraught over the play of Jason Campbell. I’m still not sure what everyone else sees in this guy. That touchdown pass to Chris Cooley was perfect. And Campbell finally got outside the pocket and looked good doing it. But he was still missing open receivers on short passes, mid-range passes and the bomb towards the end of the game to Moss, who more wide open than any receiver on the Redskins since Gary Clark in 1991. Campbell has made some good plays, but he’s also made some bad ones. In my mind, he continues to be maddeningly inconsistent. 431 yards passing with one touchdown and three picks through two weeks are exactly great stats. His 66.3 quarterback rating is 28th in the league, ahead of only Steve McNair, Matt Leinart, Rex Grossman and Tarvaris Jackson. Anytime you are in the same sentence with Rex Grossman is not a good thing.

I will say this though. Campbell looks very confident on third down. The Redskins are 15 for 29 on third down this season. That is an excellent number. Anything around 40-45 percent is going to win you a lot of games. So being over 50% through two weeks is a big reason why the Redskins are 2-0.

Enter the Giants. New Jersey is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum from the Redskins. A 0-2 start, complete with injuries to key players, dumb penalties, dumb coaching and the New York media have turned the Giants’ season into a potential nightmare. And it’s only mid-September.

We’ve been down this road before with the Giants. It seems every time they get ready to play the Redskins, they’re mired in some sort of controversy. Usually because their coach has the people skills and football savvy of a banana slug. Add in to the mix a veteran gap-toothed defensive end, who thinks he knows what’s best for the team and can’t shut his mouth, a sociopath steroid-pumping tight end, who can’t shut his mouth and a running back, who retired less than a year ago and still can’t shut his mouth, and you have plenty of entertainment.

Here’s what we know about the Giants. Like the Redskins, they have too much talent around the field to be a continuously .500 team. Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey, Amani Toomer, Antonio Pierce, Mathias Kiwanuka (although he has been less effective as a linebacker) and Brandon Jacobs (who will not play due to injury) are all very good players. I probably think Manning is much better than most people do. If you compare him to his brother, then he’s not very good at all. If you compare anyone to his brother they turn out not looking very good. It’s all a matter of perspective.

The real problem for the Giants is the coaching. Last year, Tom Coughlin was by far the worst coach in the division. This year, with the addition of Wade Phillips, Coughlin isn’t head and shoulders behind all the other men-in-charge. But he’s still behind. His team is so undisciplined. If anyone saw the Giants ugly loss to Green Bay you would know what I’m talking about. Several personal foul penalties. Twice they were called for spiking the ball/delay of game penalties. One negated a first down and goal. The players are listless out there. The writing is on the wall. The Giants are underachieving solely because of leadership. Or the lack thereof.

So the trick for the Redskins is to put this game away early. Don’t let this team hang around. Don’t let them get any confidence. Step on this team’s throat. Go to 3-0, push the Giants to 0-3. How much of a killer would that be? Three weeks into the season you’re already three games out of first. It can’t get any worse than that.

The Redskins should be able to utilize Cooley. In the first two games, the Giants have surrendered 15 completions to tight ends. And Cooley will be the best they’ve faced yet. It’s also important for Campbell’s progress to get Cooley involved in the offense. A quarterback’s favorite target should be his tight end. The more he looks to Cooley, the better this offense is going to be.

If the Redskins mix Cooley in with their running game and then look for a couple of deep passes, the offense should put up more than 20 points. Since there’s no chance that Tiki Barber comes back and rushes for 200 yards, the Giants offense should be hard pressed to match the Skins output. Especially with the way the defense has been playing recently. Put the Giants away early, and the Redskins may just put the Giants season away for good.

NFL Week 3: Unwanted Surprises

It’s mid-September, and that can only mean one thing: parody craziness all over the NFL. The Texans at 2-0? The Saints at 0-2? The Vikings defense with more touchdowns than their offense? What’s going on around here? All these foolish results have me checking in after a lousy 9-6 weekend. And if you thought that was bad, the 5-9-1 mark against the spread is even worse.
Overall: 19-11 (63%)
Vs. Spread: 16-13-1

Until I figure out what the hell is happening, you shouldn’t use these picks as a basis for wagering of any kind.

SUNDAY

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Let the madness begin here. What am I supposed to do with this game? The Chiefs have looked like the worst team in the AFC for the first two games. Larry Johnson isn’t going anywhere. Damon Huard looks like Damon Huard. The defense allowed the Bears to score, which is embarrassing. Herm Edwards has completely lost control of this team. On the other hand, Minnesota is still starting Tarvaris Jackson (who had four interceptions last week). As I mentioned above, the defense has more touchdowns (three) than the offense (two). One of those touchdowns came on a pretty fortunate run by the real Adrian Peterson in the opener. I guess I’ll take Minnesota based on the quality of the run defense.
Pick: Vikings

Indianapolis Colts (2-0)(-5.5) vs. Houston Texans (2-0)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
One of these teams shouldn’t have 2-0 next to their names…can you guess which one doesn’t belong?
Pick: Colts

San Diego Chargers (1-1)(-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-0)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Look Norv, you have possibly the greatest running back since Barry Sanders. Just run the ball. Don’t allow Phillip Rivers, who couldn’t beat Maryland in college, to have the game in his sidearm-throwing right hand. RUN THE BALL YOU IDIOT. Green Bay is one of four fluky 2-0 teams that are going to be exposed this weekend.
Pick: Chargers

Detroit Lions (2-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
How bad was that Monday Night broadcast? ESPN was up to their old tricks. All they wanted to do was focus on Donovan “black quarterbacks have it so tough, it’s certainly not my fault I’m throwing five yards behind my receiver” McNabb all night. Nevermind the fact that a Redskins team, that no one gave any chance to win, dominated the Eagles for most of the game. Nevermind the fact that it was clear to anyone with any knowledge of the game that Brian Westbrook is the Eagles best player. No let’s talk about McNabb and the genius coach with a large weight problem. That makes sense.

I believe it was early in the 2nd quarter when Sean Taylor absolutely blew up one of the Eagles receivers (who was hung out by a terrible throw from McNabb). Not only did we not see any replays of the hit from Taylor, but the broadcasters didn’t even mention it had happened. No, the focus was on Andy Reid and his drug-dealing sons. Which Mike Tirico and Ron Jaworski continued to talk about for roughly 10 minutes. As per ESPN policy when dealing with the Eagles, they made excuses for Reid. “Just because his sons messed up doesn’t make him a bad father.” “It could happen to any family, it could happen to any father.” Blah blah blah blah blah. It may not be entirely Reid’s fault, but I’m sure he had a lot to do with it. Maybe if he spent less time trying to ice kickers before a 28-yard first half field goal attempt, and spent more time at home taking care of business, his sons wouldn’t be heinous criminals.

Then came the popular excuses for Donovan McNabb. “It’s not his fault the offense isn’t moving, his receivers are so lousy.” No, it’s never the quarterback’s fault the offense is lousy. Why would it be? It’s not like quarterback is an important position.

Maybe, just maybe, McNabb isn’t that great of a quarterback. I’ve only been saying this for years, but no one will listen. Don’t tell me his receivers stink. Don’t tell me it’s the offense. And don’t tell me it’s the black quarterback thing (Really, was this the best time for McNabb to play the race card? Reeks of someone who knows his job is in jeopardy and he’s grasping at straws.). As of right now, McNabb is the worst starting quarterback in the NFC East. Just go back and watch all the horrible throws he made in this game. He was overthrowing, underthrowing, and throwing behind his receivers all night long. Of the 26 incompletions, the overwhelming majority were McNabb’s fault and his fault alone. Not his offensive line. Not his receivers. Not the fact he’s a black athlete. He didn’t have a good game because, right now, he isn’t a very good quarterback. Plain and simple.

As for Detroit…how dumb can your trainers be to allow a player, who suffered an obvious concussion, back in a game? That is completely reckless and irresponsible. Jon Kitna should not be playing this week either. I don’t think it will matter, because the Lions are about to join Green Bay and Houston in the “L” column.
Pick: Eagles

Buffalo Bills (0-2) vs. New England Patriots (2-0)(-16)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Wow, a 16-point spread. I don’t care who is playing who. That’s way too big of a spread for any NFL game. And again, let me reiterate: the Patriots will not finish undefeated. C’mon people. It’s two weeks into the season. Teams will adjust, the Patriots will be tripped up somewhere. Probably multiple somewheres. I said 13 wins would be remarkable. I expected them win 11 games, and I’m sticking with it.
Pick: Patriots, Bills cover

Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. New York Jets (0-2)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Well, at least one team in the AFC East won’t be a full three games behind the Patriots following this week. The Dolphins have actually played two pretty good games. They took the Skins to the wire and led the Cowboys late in the third.
Pick: Dolphins

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Either the 49ers are better than people think or Vegas is on to something. I’m with Vegas on this line. The 49ers are not that good. Just a team that has escaped with two wins in two weeks (However, they were two division wins, and one was on the road. Not a bad two games to escape with). I’m sorry, two wins by four points against two bad teams isn’t impressive. The Steelers haven’t played better competition than the 49ers, but they have destroyed both teams. And they’re probably going to destroy San Francisco.
Pick: Steelers

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-1)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
It’s great to see that the Big Ego is back in Baltimore. Brian Billick was completely responsible for the Ravens loss to Cincinnati. The pass on 3rd and 1, inside Baltimore territory, with the Ravens leading by one late in the fourth quarter, was a terrible play call. The pass was intercepted and the Bengals quickly scored a touchdown. The five pass plays inside the redzone late in the game were even worse. Last week, the Ravens watched a 20-3 lead shrink to 20-13 with the Jets in possession of the ball inside the Baltimore 20. Thanks to more bad play-calling, the Ravens were a couple of dropped passes from having to go into overtime. Again, the Ravens schedule will help them get four or five wins before their bye week. Then the other shoe drops. For now, the Ravens will play a bunch of close games they’ll probably win. Their offense and coaching staff -can’t be expected to cover large spreads like this one.
Pick: Ravens, Cardinals cover

St. Louis Rams (0-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
I’m just going to keep picking the Rams until they win. With the way they’ve played so far, it’s more likely that I’m going to pick up an additional 14 losses in my overall record.
Pick: Rams

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) vs. Denver Broncos (2-0)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Like San Diego, it’s become clear that Jacksonville isn’t going to play to their strength. With Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew on the roster, why does Jack Del Rio continue to insist in putting the game in the hands of David Garrard (and Byron Leftwich before him)? After barely escaping past Atlanta at home, I don’t have much hope for the Jags in Denver. Then again, they’ve won a bunch of these tough road games in past seasons. Maybe a road trip will get them back to basics.
Pick: Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-1)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
One of these teams gets back on track and goes 2-1. The other falls into a 1-2 hole and will have a lot of ground to cover in the coming weeks.
Pick: Seahawks

Cleveland Browns (1-1) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-2)(-3)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
Could the Browns actually go 2-1? No, I just don’t see it happening. The Raiders appear to be half decent. I have a feeling that the Browns aren’t going to be able to put up half-a-hundred on this defense.
Pick: Raiders

Carolina Panthers (1-1)(-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
4:15 p.m. Georgia Dome
The Falcons are terrible. I don’t care who they’re playing, or what the spread is. You shouldn’t pick them the entire season. I know I won’t be.
Pick: Panthers

Dallas Cowboys (2-0) vs. Chicago Bears (1-1)(-4)
8:15 p.m. Soldier Field
Just when you think Rex Grossman is about ready to take a permanent seat on the bench, he has a great game in front of a national audience and forces Lovie Smith to keep him in the lineup. I would feel bad for Bears fans except for the fact that their team plays in the NFC North and gets a gift-wrapped playoff birth every season.
Pick: Bears, Cowboys cover

MONDAY

Tennessee Titans (1-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-2)(-4.5)
8:30 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Last chance to dance for the Saints. 0-3 records almost always mean no playoffs. So I’ll give them one more opportunity to prove that they are Super Bowl worthy.
Pick: Saints

Redskins at Eagles: No Cover In Cover Three

Washington Redskins (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
8:30 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
The Redskins are 1-0, so everyone in the D.C. area is happy. That doesn’t change the fact that the Redskins won a very ugly game that should never have been that ugly. Miami isn’t going to win more than six games this season, and the Skins should have been two or more scores better than them in the opener. There is no way this game should ever have reached overtime.

Let’s look at the positives first. Obviously, the Skins being 1-0 is the best thing that came out of the game. A win is a win. Shaun Suisham looks like he can be the stud kicker the Redskins have been without since the Chip Lohmiller days. Clinton Portis looks like he’s healthy (that groan you heard was from the rest of the NFC East defensive coordinators). Antwaan Randle El finally stepped up as a worthy number two receiver. The rushing defense was stout all game against a team that normally loves to run. Even the loss of Jon Jansen, which in itself is not a positive, showed that the Redskins have more depth than originally thought on the offensive line. Stephon Heyer, who I thought was a waste of a roster space a couple of weeks ago, replaced Jansen and played perfectly against one of the NFL’s best defensive front sevens. The talk around town is the start at right tackle will go to Todd Wade (who wasn’t active last week) because the coaching staff doesn’t think Heyer can duplicate his performance. I’d at least give him a chance to do so before putting Wade in at tackle.

Now for the negative. I’ll start with Jason Campbell. From the local media to the fans at the stadium to some of my friends that I work with, everyone was gushing over his game. Did I watch the same game everyone else did? He looked bad. I want a Redskin fan to write in and tell me what was so great about Campbell’s performance. He forced two passes that resulted in picks. Most of the deep passes he threw to Randle El went for big plays only because El made terrific plays on the ball. All his quick, short routes were thrown behind his receivers. He missed a wide-open Santana Moss at least twice for big gains on third down. He only looked to Chris Cooley twice the entire game. His feet were never set. He didn’t look comfortable in the pocket. He didn’t look comfortable rolling out of the pocket. He just didn’t look good. Period.

The passing defense was similar to last season’s. In fact, it looked like a carbon copy of last year’s opening game. The Skins were facing a former Redskins quarterback, who was way too old to move well, completed 10-12 yard passes all day long and was only sidetracked by numerous dropped balls. This cover three defense is not working. I know that the typical fan is quick to blame Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot. But they’re playing exactly how they are coached to. The cover three allows the Redskins to put eight in the box by making LaRon Landry a de facto linebacker. They basically present a 4-4 defensive front to the opposition. As a result of bringing Landry up for the run, Rogers and Smoot are forced to give 10-yard cushions to their receivers because only Sean Taylor is behind them to provide some help. Teams are aware of this and are attacking with short hitch or slant passes which are picking up 10 yards a pop. Even Miami, a team that ran the ball a ton last season, a team with a 37-year-old quarterback, threw 38 passes. Most of those were short passes over the middle or out patterns to the sideline. This is where the cover three is weak, and the opposition knows it.

Against the Eagles’ West Coast Offense, the cover three really stands no chance. The very points where the cover three is weak, are the positions that the WCO was created to exploit. In other words, Gregg Williams better have a Plan B. And a good Plan B at that. Donovan McNabb and his backup dancers, when not under any pressure from a good pass rush, will pick you apart. It’s not that McNabb is anything really special. He isn’t. But somehow, year after year, this offense as a whole is better than the sum of their parts. I just don’t get it. How can an offense, with a terribly inaccurate quarterback, no receivers and a makeshift offensive line, keep putting up solid numbers (last week’s loss to Green Bay not withstanding)?

Well, as I explained here last week, the WCO covers up a lot of McNabb’s inefficiencies. The playbook calls for nickel-and-dime passes to the receivers, screens to Brian Westbrook and stretch running plays. Then after about a quarter or two of that, the offensive coordinator always seems to know when to take one or two shots downfield. And the receivers always end up wide open. This offense may not be great, but the play-calling is.

Another factor into the offensive success is all this crappy hype that follows McHernia around (despite the fact that he’s either quit on his team, or been hurt, in each of the last three seasons). All week we hear about McNabb this and McNabb that. “How great is Donovan McNabb” proclaims ESPN. If you don’t know, they’ll tell you. The defensive coordinators hear the same garbage everyone else does. It gets in their heads. They game plan for McNabb as if he’s the real threat in this offense. And he isn’t. The real key to this offense is Westbrook. I’ve said it so many times. You stop him, you stop this offense. If you put the load on McNabb, he will fail. No time was that more apparent than the Sunday Night Football game two years ago at FedEx Field. Westbrook did next to nothing. McNabb tossed two late interceptions, including one that cost the Eagles a chance to tie the game in the final minute. Not coincidently, it was one of the few times the Redskins have beaten the Eagles in the past five years.

Now, stopping Westbrook is not easy. The Eagles use him in so many ways. They love to get him around the edges on the ground and into the flats for the passing game. Again, this cover three is built so Westbrook can succeed. The cover three can stop the run and stop the deep ball (if played correctly). It can’t stop mid-range passes, short passes to the flat and pitches to the outside of the tackles. Which is all the Eagles do. They rarely run and only go deep at the opportune moment. So I beg and plead of Gregg Williams to try something else. Instead of bringing Landry up into the box, have him spy Westbrook into the flats. In past years that could create trouble, because McNabb could beat you with his legs up the middle, but he’s still nowhere near 100% following his knee surgery last year. His running ability is limited

Look, we all know that Gregg Williams isn’t going to change his scheme. He didn’t do it last year even when it became apparent to everyone but clueless Vinny Cerrato that it wasn’t working. The Redskins will have to limit big plays, and in these games with the Eagles, it always seems like they hit on at least one or two.

It will be up to the offense to put points on the board and keep up with Westbrook and company. If Campbell has another game like last week, this one won’t be close. But, if the Redskins run the ball exactly like they did against the Dolphins (41 carries compared to only 21 pass attempts…that’s what I like to see) and hit a couple of clutch passes, then this game will be interesting.

The good news is, for the third straight season, the Redskins get to play one of their toughest games early in the season and get it over and done with. The last two years they played at Dallas (on Monday Night) in week 2. Beating Miami means that this game is less crucial. Sure it’s a division game. Sure I would love nothing more than to go into Philly, in front of that disgusting fan base, and help the Eagles to a winless start. But a loss isn’t the end of the world. Last season, the Redskins were trying to avoid an 0-2 hole, in the division, on the road. This season, even if they lose, they’ll be .500, only a game out of 1st, with a home game against the Eagles later in the season and a beat up Giants team waiting for them back in Landover next week. Could certainly be a lot worse. It could be 2006.

NFL Week 2: Cheaters Always Win, Even When They're Caught

After one week, the records continue on my typical pace. Even some first week madness can’t affect these records on the whole.
Overall: 10-5 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 11-4 (thank you Arizona)

As always, the following picks should not be used for gambling purposes, because you never know who is watching me with a video recorder.

SUNDAY

Indianapolis Colts (1-0)(-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (1-0)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
To all those who thought the Colts would be on their way to an early demise were sorely mistaken last Thursday. Holding an outstanding offense, especially one that had been clicking all preseason, to 10 points is very impressive. Now they get the Titans, a team they routinely dominate. They should win fairly easily, which is why they probably won't.
Pick: Colts, Titans cover

Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)(-6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-1)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
I saw what Cincinnati could do against a pretty good defense. They didn’t play all that well and still managed to put up 27 points. Plus, they are playing the aforementioned Browns in what should be a cakewalk.
Pick: Bengals

Buffalo Bills (0-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Before everyone, including myself, gets all excited about the Steelers, let’s remember who they trounced in their opening game. If week one is any sign, the Browns have the potential to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. So all those who picked Pittsburgh as their sleeper (this guy right here), need to wait a couple of more weeks until we see them play against a real team.
Pick: Steelers

Houston Texans (1-0) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-0)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Just wondering what fans in Philadelphia and New York think of the Houston Texans having a better record than their respective teams. It’s kind of funny from my perspective. The Panthers will take care of that this weekend.
Pick: Panthers

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-1)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Carolina all came through for me last week. The Rams did not (Carolina did have something to do with it). I would hope the Rams will be able to find more that 49 yards rushing for Stephen Jackson this week.
Pick: Rams

Green Bay Packers (1-0) vs. New York Giants (0-1)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Giants are lousy, awful and headed straight to a ten-loss season. And that’s what I said before all the injuries that occurred last Sunday night. Man, is it going to be fun watching this team fall apart all year.
Pick: Packers

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
It won’t be fun watching the Falcons fall apart all season. It truly sucks that an entire team of relatively decent players were taken out at the knees because of one idiot’s actions. Meanwhile, Jacksonville was up to their old tricks again last week. Let’s see, we have Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor in the backfield, so we’re going to throw the ball 70% of the time. Yeah, that makes sense.
Pick: Jaguars

New Orleans Saints (0-1)(-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Am I nervous about my Super Bowl pick? No, not yet. I just hope they don’t run into the Colts in February.
Pick: Saints

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) vs. Detroit Lions (1-0)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Ford Field
Boy, did these two teams luck out in the scheduling. Minnesota got the soulless Falcons and the Lions got the talent-less Raiders for their openers. Then the two of them get each other. Someone has to go 2-0. I’ll take the team with the better defense.
Pick: Vikings

Dallas Cowboys (1-0)(-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1)
4:05 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Regardless of the sorry state of the Giants defense, 45 points in an opener is noteworthy. Not noteworthy enough to get all that concerned about the Cowboys (considering their defense gave 35 points back), but enough to take notice. Let’s see how they do against a better defense before we put them on the fast track for a playoff berth.
Pick: Cowboys

Seattle Seahawks (1-0)(-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals (0-1)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
As I said last week, until further notice, the NFC West still belongs to the Seattle Seahawks. Until one of the other three teams show they can play well on both sides of the ball, or just play well in general, Seattle is going to continue to run away with this division.
Pick: Seahawks

New York Jets (0-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (0-1)(-9)
4:15 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Now the Ravens enter the part of their schedule that looks like this: Jets, Arizona, at Cleveland, at San Francisco, St. Louis and at Buffalo. They shouldn’t lose more than one of those games. The reason this team will go 8-8 comes after their October 28th bye week. Not to mention the fact that Steve McNair already looks tired and beat up and it’s only week 2. That means more Kyle Boller.
Pick: Ravens

Oakland Raiders (0-1) vs. Denver Broncos (1-0)(-9)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
The one thing that sucks about going to Redskins games is that you can’t see the rest of the league as well as a true football fan would like. All I’ve seen from the Broncos-Bills game is the unfortunate Kevin Everett injury and Jason Elam’s game-winning field goal. What I haven’t seen is how bad Denver’s offense was. Only 15 points against the Bills without Nate Clements and London Fletcher? Really?
Pick: Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) vs. Chicago Bears (1-0)(-13)
4:15 p.m. Soldier Field
As bad as Kansas City is, the one thing you have to ask yourself when taking the Bears and the 13 points, is can the Bears even score 13 points to cover the spread? I have my doubts.
Pick: Bears, Chiefs cover

San Diego Chargers (1-0) vs. New England Patriots (1-0)(-4)
8:15 p.m. Gillette Field
Huge props to the NFL for sticking it to the Patriots. I was sure they were going to let them off the hook since they are one of the Holy Quintet. But a first round draft pick or a second and third round draft pick? That’s excellent. I would have preferred a couple of games suspension and mandatory shower for their grungy coach, but nothing’s perfect.

The actual mechanics to how the Patriots cheated isn’t what interests me. I mean, of course they cheated. And of course they got a significant advantage by doing so. Why would anyone even attempt to do this if there wasn’t a huge benefit for cheating and getting away with it? No coach in his right mind would allow this to happen if the rewards didn’t outweigh the risks. That’s why there are rules against videotaping signals. It’s one thing for a linebacker to steal signs at the line of scrimmage. That’s just gamesmanship. But to use someone outside of the playing field to gain any type of advantage just isn’t part of the sport. I don’t like the difference in NFL games coming down to which team can find the better spy. And for an organization that’s built it’s “dynasty” around one rule (Tuck rule anyone? It was a stupid rule, but a rule nonetheless. Anyone from the greater New England area will defend that point to the death.), it’s hypocritical to think you can break a different rule and get away with it.

But that’s not what really interests me. Like Angela Bassett in Contact, what interests me is how much static was on the videotape. What interests me is how many times the Patriots have cheated. And I’m not just talking about videotaping other teams. Although they have been warned about that before. You factor this videotaping scandal into the Rodney Harrison steroid suspension, and this nonsense with Belichick threatening Brad Childress and the Vikings not to claim several of his players, and this one incident at the Meadowlands becomes a significant trend. What else don’t we know? What else has no one figured out? Because of this list of transgressions, we have no choice but to assume that for everything the Patriots have been caught doing, they have probably gotten away with at least a handful of other illegal activities. Who else is using steroids and HGH? Does Belichick send spies out to videotape other teams’ practices? Does he pay mafia agents to do it for him? Have the Patriots lied about their salary cap figures? Have they paid players under the table to make up for their pay cuts (ala Randy Moss)? You may laugh and say that this sounds like a conspiracy. However, the Patriots bending or breaking the rules is not an isolated incident. If they were in the NCAA, they’d have investigators looking at all of these possibilities. Since they’re in the NFL, they’ll be fined, stripped of a couple of draft picks, and it will be over. You seriously have to take all these incidents, and all the perceived incidents that have been covered up by the NFL (like the last two times the Pats were accused of cheating) and you have to mention them every time you start talking about this so-called “dynasty”. You have to. It’s all tainted.

Hopefully the loss of draft picks will serve as a wake up call to this organization. But if I know Belichick, this will just serve as a warning that he has to be more careful when he cheats.
Pick: Chargers.

This weekend we talk the main event: Redskins-Eagles

Dolphins at Redskins: Joe Gibbs Revival

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
In 2005, the Redskins are picked to finish dead last in the NFC East. Many around football believe they’re going to be one of the three or four worst teams in the league. The Redskins end up making the playoffs, and winning a postseason game on the road.

In 2006, the Redskins are picked to finish in either first or second place in the East. Many say they are one of the top teams in the NFC. The Redskins have Clinton Portis get hurt in the first preseason game and drop to 5-11.

What does this tell us about early season predictions? It shows they are useless. Just because I expect the Redskins to go 10-6 or 11-5 every season doesn’t mean they will. Just because all of ESPN’s analysts, who hope the Redskins won’t win more than six games so they can spend more time talking about Dallas or Philly, doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

The Washington Redskins, on paper, are still one of the best teams in the league. Let me run down some of the names for you: Portis, Ladell Betts, Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, Chris Cooley, Chris Samuels, Jon Jansen, Randy Thomas, Cornelius Griffin, Marcus Washington, London Fletcher, Shawn Springs, Sean Taylor, LaRon Landry. Teams that routinely go 5-11 do not have talent like this on their roster. One bad season, sure. Detroit Lions bad? Not happening. Every possible thing that could have gone wrong last year, from all the injuries to all the close losses to a ridiculous schedule that had the Skins playing FOUR teams coming off their bye weeks (an NFL record), did go wrong for the Redskins. This team is too talented to go 5-11 again.

On the flip side, the Redskins are starting a young quarterback who has been behind center for exactly seven games. Now, I know that this hasn’t kept ESPN from pre-ordering a bust of Tony Romo in Canton, but Jason Campbell didn’t even have one or two eye-popping games like his friend in Dallas did (although he didn’t fumble field goal snaps). I’m still very skeptical of Campbell. I’ve seen so many potentially great quarterbacks come through this city in the past decade. And other than Brad Johnson’s 1999 season, all those quarterbacks either failed, or failed miserably. So excuse me if I tend to believe that Campbell is going to be more like Heath Shuler than Sonny Jurgensen. If he’s great, then great! I’ll be the first to say I was wrong. But his stats from seven games last year weren’t all that impressive.

Also, despite the talent that does exist on the defensive side of the ball, the question mark continues to be the defensive line. Along with Griffin, Phillip Daniels and Andre Carter are back. If they are all healthy, which was a big problem last year, then there is no reason the Redskins defensive line can’t be as good as half of the other d-lines in the league. If they get hurt, then potentially only Denver is worse at that position.

Regardless, the Redskins are going to field enough talent to win 10 to 11 games. Again, look at this roster and compare it to the rest of the teams in the NFC. Who would scare you more? Portis and Betts, or Julius Jones and Marion Barber? Moss and Randle El, or Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis? Taylor and Landry, or whatever retreads the Giants are trying out in their secondary? The big question for the Skins isn’t going to be about lack of talent. It’s going to be about how the coaches handle the talent that’s already on the roster.

This is not a shot at Joe Gibbs. Gibbs is not the problem (although I continue to wish he would spend more time refining the playbook than worrying about which make of automobile his NASCAR drivers are going to use next season). Joe Gibbs, despite last season, is still one of the most successful, most innovative and brilliant minds to ever walk a NFL sideline. Only Vince Lombardi is ahead of him in terms of NFL genius. That’s right, Gibbs is ahead of the late, great Bill Walsh. While Walsh’s coaching tree is unmatched in football, his success on the field is not light years ahead of a handful of other greats. The West Coast Offense, which worked very well for Walsh’s 49ers, is nothing more than a gimmick offense. Since the 49ers won their last championship (Super Bowl XXIX) a grand total of one team has won a Super Bowl using the West Coast Offense. One! And that was the Packers in Super Bowl XXXI. So it’s been more than a decade since a WCO won a title.

The WCO may be an efficient way to cover up defects at certain positions, like offensive line or even at quarterback (the Eagles have been using the WCO to cover up McNabb’s terrible accuracy for the last five or six years). It may win you a bunch of regular season games. But the WCO is, in reality, nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Most teams that use it are exposed late in the season or early in the playoffs. This is why you see fewer and fewer teams running primary WCO. Believe me, I’m not trying to put down Bill Walsh. He’s certainly one of the top five coaches in history. But to hear people say he was the best is an insult to Lombardi, who continues to be head and shoulders above everyone else.

Gibbs, on the other hand, perfected an offense that is used by the majority of teams today. Gibbs took power rushing and mixed it with play-action passing to create the famous “Air Coryell” offense at San Diego (while it was named after Chargers head coach Don Coryell, it was really a Gibbs invention). Almost every modern offense in the NFL uses some part of what Gibbs and Coryell created. The counter trey is now a staple of every single team in the NFL. That was a Gibbs invention. The play-action rollout is basically a Gibbs invention. This is offense that Gibbs helped spearhead was so successful, you see teams from every level run it. The Steelers, who won the Super Bowl only two seasons ago, used a hybrid of Gibbs’ Coryell attack.

The 49ers didn’t win all those championships just because of the WCO. They won them because they had Joe Montana, Steve Young, Roger Craig, Jerry Rice and John Taylor. Walsh was a much better GM then he ever was a coach. But what happened after Young retired and Rice went to Oakland? The 49ers stopped winning. On the other side, what happened to the Redskins after Joe Theismann broke his leg and John Riggins retired? They won two more Super Bowls, and would have won another one if Gibbs hadn’t retired in the first place. Gibbs won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks, three different running backs, a host of different receivers and completely different defenses. He won them because his offensive system truly worked. And his offensive system has staying power.

That’s why the game hasn’t passed Gibbs by. He is the game. His offense is the offense that the majority of NFL team run. Saying that the game has passed Gibbs by is like saying computer software passed by Bill Gates, if Gates were to disappear to Antarctica for a decade and then decide to come back and run Windows again. Joe Gibbs isn’t the problem. Just because he looks older and may have some trouble relating to players doesn’t mean he’s washed up.

The problem is his associates. Gregg Williams, who handles the defense completely independent from Gibbs, was a disaster last season after two great years before it. Williams’ assistants, especially those coaching the defensive backs, botched last season. Al Saunders never earned the respect of the Redskins offensive players. His system was a disappointment. The game hasn’t passed Joe Gibbs by, but Joe Gibbs may believe that it has. That’s why he went out and hired so many assistants. 2006 was clearly a case of too many cooks being in a one-bedroom apartment’s kitchen.

The solution to fix the offense is easy. The first step has already been made. Making Campbell the starter changes the whole dynamic of the offense already. The second step is for Gibbs to take more of a roll in play calling. Like he did in 2005. Like he did at the end of last season. Fixing the defense will be a bit harder. Gibbs has never been a defensive guru. He’s always delegated responsibility to a defensive coordinator, whether it was Richie Petitbone or Williams. Hopefully the additions of Fletcher and Landry, along with adding depth all around the secondary, will convince Williams to go back to his blitzing style of ’05 instead of the passive defense of ’06.

I think the Redskins can be very good this year. Just take another look at the roster. It’s very appealing. I honestly believe that if the Skins play up to their ability, stop fooling around with lesser opponents and avoid major injuires, this is a team that can win 10 games or more. Super Bowl is probably out of the question this season. But 10 wins for the second time in three years would be nice.

One of those lesser opponents are the Dolphins. I’m not going to waste much time talking about them. Trent Green shouldn’t scare the Redskins, but I said the same thing last year about Brad Johnson in the opener. The Fins have Ronnie Brown, who’s very good, Chris Chambers, who can be good depending upon who is throwing him the ball, and not much else. The only way Miami is winning games this year will be with their defense. Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas are still there and still showing no signs of aging.

The Redskins will win this game if they are able to create turnovers and execute in the short field. Miami should be prone to giving up the ball. The Predictor will be there for his fourth opener in the past five years. The only one I didn’t attend was last year’s disappointment against Minnesota. Otherwise, I’m 3-0 in openers. Let’s make it 4-0.

2007 NFC Preview And Week 1 Picks: Insanity Defined

There is no doubt about the AFC being the better conference. The last four Super Bowl winners have come from the AFC. The strongest teams in 2007 appear to be from the AFC. The only reason to do a NFC preview is to predict which team will suffer a beat down in early February at the hands of San Diego. Except this year, that’s just not the case.

While the AFC is certainly stronger, the best offense in the NFL can be found in New Orleans. In a year which offenses will take over the game, the Saints should be able to ride their high-octane, versatile and dangerously quick offense to a title. Here’s the rest of the NFC for the sake of it. After the previews and Super Bowl pick, are my week one picks. Enjoy.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B+

Tough Month: December- Seattle, NY Giants, at Dallas, at New Orleans, Buffalo

It pains me to do this. It really does. But in a division that contains four good, but nowhere near complete teams, the Eagles have the fewest question marks. Therefore, they get the nod. Barely. While Donovan McNabb continues to steal headlines, the 2007 Eagles are much less about McHernia then they are about Brian Westbrook. As long as the Eagles have a good offensive line and they have Westbrook’s ability to stretch the field, they should be able to move the ball fairly well. Westbrook and the o-line will make it much easier for the middling McNabb and his well-below average receiving corps to have success. And no, I don’t think McNabb will make it through the season healthy. He hasn’t done so in over three seasons. The defense will still have problems stopping the run, but the Eagles still have one of the games’ better defensive backfields. Philly is slightly better than the rest of the division, but they are certainly not among the top six or seven teams in the NFL, and they shouldn’t come anywhere close to the Super Bowl.

2. Washington Redskins
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B

Tough Month: November- at NY Jets, Philadelphia, at Dallas, at Tampa Bay

More on the Redskins in the next couple of days. As usual, I’ll have my weekly game preview for the Burgundy and Gold as a separate post. Let’s just say the Redskins aren’t in the dire straights that every television analyst puts them in. I’m picking them here to be safe, because like a lot of other teams, there are several question marks that need answering. This team, if you go position-by-position, has as much talent as anybody. The quarterback situation is an issue. The defensive line is one of the weakest in the league. Other than that, I’d put the Redskins roster up against any other teams. The schedule makers did the Skins no favors (surprise, surprise). Last year, playing a second place schedule, the Redskins faced eight playoff teams, which was among the highest in the league. This year, playing a last place schedule, they play NINE games against playoff teams, which is the most in the NFL. How does that work? Can we please stop shortchanging this team? All I’m asking is for fair treatment from the NFL and the national media. Fair treatment! That’s it. We don’t need to have a McNabb or T.O. watch for Clinton Portis, but some fair coverage of the team would be awfully nice. I think Joe Gibbs has earned it.

3. Dallas Cowboys
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: B+
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: November- at Philadelphia, at NY Giants, Washington, NY Jets, Green Bay

Ok, let me get this straight. The Cowboys replace Bill Parcells, one of the ten greatest coaches in NFL history, with Wade Phillips, who has failed everywhere he’s gone, and everyone says that Dallas is going to be better? What? This isn’t like going from Marty Schottenheimer to Norv Turner. Before we pencil in another one of ESPN’s Holy Quintet for the Super Bowl, let’s take a good look at this team. First, there’s Tony Romo. Here’s a guy who put together three or four good games last season, and now he’s Tom Brady’s long lost brother. Romo hasn’t won a Super Bowl yet. He hasn’t won a playoff game yet (Didn’t he cost the Cowboys a playoff game last season? Something about a fumbled snap…I don’t remember exactly). He hasn’t even been a starting quarterback for more than half a season. Romo is still in the second-class section of NFL quarterbacks. Maybe one day he’ll move up. Furthermore, the line which he is playing behind is still nothing more than middle-of-the-pack. Leonard Davis, a complete bust in Arizona, will continue to be a complete bust in Dallas. Just because he’s 6-8 doesn’t mean he’s a good offensive lineman. His height won’t make a difference when a faster lineman or linebacker gets past him. And before we forget, there’s this whole Terrell Owens situation that Phillips will have to deal with. There are only two ways the Phillips-Owens situation will end. Either they’ll get along and everyone will be happy, or Owens will continue to systematically destroy every team he’s ever been on and Phillips, who lacks a pair, will let him do it. Which one do you think is more likely? So is this a Super Bowl team? No. This may not even be a playoff team.

4. New York Giants
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: C+
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: C-
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: December- at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, at Buffalo, New England

Now that the Giants have gotten rid of Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, Tiki Barber and the rest of the offense should finally be able to grow and make a playoff push. Wait a minute…what was that? Coughlin’s still here? That’s just not possible. How many good teams does he have to ruin before he gets fired. And you say Tiki Barber retired? Man, this is going to be one ugly season for the Giants. I guess when the biggest story out of training camp is whether a washed up defensive end will report to practice, then you can pretty much book that team for a maximum of six wins. Another scheduling note: it’s great to see the NFL is still helping the Giants. When it was announced that the NFL would have the Giants and Dolphins play in London, the natural assumption was that the NFL would make the Giants the designated “home team.” By doing so, it would make up for the extra home game the Giants got to play two seasons ago against the Saints in the Meadowlands. Instead, the NFL made the Dolphins the home team, thereby allowing the Giants to play only seven true road games for the second time in three seasons. Furthermore, the Giants are scheduled to play the Jets “on the road” this season (By on the road I mean instead of being in Northern New Jersey’s home locker room, they’ll be inconvenienced by moving 50 feet down a tunnel to the visiting locker room.) So the Giants, in reality, are playing six true road games this year. In the last three seasons, each NFL team has played 24 regular season road games. Except the Giants, who will play only 21. Pathetic that they still won’t be .500 this year.

NFC NORTH

1. Chicago Bears
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: C
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: December- NY Giants, at Washington, at Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans

The Bears don’t have to do anything about their quarterback situation. They don’t have to do anything about their pathetic group of their receivers. They don’t have to have two competent running backs. They don’t have to put Devin Hester on offense. They don’t have to improve in any way. As long as they don’t switch divisions, they can just kick up their heels, watch the rest of the North do nothing in the off-season and pencil themselves in for a minimum of 10-11 wins a season. Must be nice.

2. Green Bay Packers
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: D
Receivers/TE: C
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: September- Philadelphia, at NY Giants, San Diego, at Minnesota

Brett “Roger Clemens” Favre continues to play, and continues to handcuff this organization. Meanwhile, he’s playing with several rookies along the offensive line, a rookie running back, and the same hodgepodge of receivers he had last season. Green Bay’s defense may be slightly better in 2007, but it’s not good enough to make a difference. This team got to .500 last year because they had four games against the Lions and Vikings. In any other division, they’d be lucky to grab five wins.

3. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: F
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: D
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: October- at Chicago, at Dallas, Philadelphia

Here’s a bad omen for the Vikings. As of a couple of days ago, Yahoo! had Michael Vick ranked ahead of Tarvaris Jackson for fantasy purposes. Which means that, according to Yahoo! rankings, you’d score more points with an incarcerated Mick Vick then you would with an actual NFL starting quarterback. Yahoo! may not be that far off.

4. Detroit Lions
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: D-
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: December- at Minnesota, Dallas, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Green Bay

Definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. In this case, the people who are insane are “experts” and other analysts who continue to expect Detroit to finish on the other side of the .500 mark and become their annual sleeper team. How many years in a row has Detroit been the trendy darkhorse? Three? Four? How many winning seasons have they had during that time? I rest my case. The Lions still have one of the worst offensive lines in football and no defense of which to speak of. It’s going to be hard for Jon Kitna to put up the necessary 30 points a game from his back.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: A-
Running Backs: A+
Receivers/TE: A-
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: A

Tough Month: October- Carolina, at Seattle, Atlanta, at San Francisco

Ladies and gentlemen, your Super Bowl XLII champions. Drew Brees is behind only Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer in terms of pure talent. The Saints have the NFC’s best running back tandem. They have three solid receivers. They have a veteran offensive line. What’s not to love? This team, if healthy, can only be better than last season. This will be Bress’ second year in the Saints offense. Reggie Bush will no longer be a rookie. The coaching staff had another entire off-season to figure out how to share the ball between Bush and Deuce McAllister. Again, barring injuries, I just don’t see how any team can possibly stop the Saints offense. When it comes to their potential meeting in the Super Bowl with San Diego, you have to figure that the offenses will cancel each other out, and that the Chargers defense will be the difference. I’d like to think the difference will be coaching. If the Chargers meet the Saints, it will be in the Super Bowl where the Norv Turner factor finally costs the Chargers. I’d take my chances with Sean Payton any day of the week. On a side note, I realize how similar my predictions are to Sports Illustrated, which has the same Super Bowl matchup that I do. Rest assured, I came up with these predictions a few weeks ago, well before I saw the Sports Illustrated preview edition. I don’t need that airhead Peter King (the sole reason Art Monk isn’t in the Hall of Fame but Crackhead Irvin is) to tell me what’s going to happen. He actually picked New England to win the Super Bowl. I guess his own magazine found him so completely retarded that it picked against him.

2. Carolina Panthers
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B

Tough Month: October- at New Orleans, at Arizona, Indianapolis

The Panthers killed me last season. I kept waiting for them to wake up and realize that they were better than a .500 team, and they never did. Jake Delhomme had a terrible season. The defense, once vaunted, also had a terrible season. The Panthers couldn’t move the ball or stop the opposition from moving the ball with any consistency. That usually adds up to a mediocre record (unless you’re the Jets). I’m going to give Delhomme and the Panthers offense the benefit of the doubt. I think they really underachieved last season. I look for them to make the playoffs this year. I think Delhomme is ready for a career year. DeAngelo Williams and DeShawn Foster will finally be healthy and develop into the two-back system that the Panthers need. Steve Smith will rebound from his down 2006 season. The defense will return to pre-2006 form. Yep, I’m betting on the Panthers again. I just won’t be as hesitant as I was last year to jump off the bandwagon if they start sputtering around November.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: C+
Offensive Grade: C

Tough Month: September- at Seattle, New Orleans, St. Louis, at Carolina

Does anyone know who the quarterback is on this team? Apparently Jeff Garcia is going to get the starting nod in week one. After that, it’s anybody’s guess. Chris Simms is still there. Bruce Gradkowski and Luke McCown (not to be confused with Josh McCown or Cade McNown) are there as well. It’s still up in the air whether Jake Plummer will report or not. It looks like he’s going to retire, but who knows. Cadillac Williams won’t have Mike Alstott blocking for him. The o-line features one rookie and a couple of young unknowns. The number two receiver is David Boston, who we last heard from around 2000. The secondary, after Ronde Barber, has a bunch of below-average players who have bounced around from team to team. If it wasn’t for the linebacking corps and part of the defensive line, it would be a very long season for the Bucs. A relatively easy schedule and the Atlanta Falcons will keep Tampa Bay out of the cellar.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 4-12

Quarterback: F
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: D+

Tough Month: December- at St. Louis, New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, Seattle

Man, where to begin here. I guess the quarterback position is the obvious place. Joey Harrington steps in as a starter on his third team. No one may have lucked out more than Harrington, who was only expected to be a third-stringer six months ago when he arrived in Atlanta. Running back Warrick Dunn is coming back from off-season back surgery, which might as well be a death sentence for an aging scat back. Two rookies will start on the offensive line. The defense stars DeAngelo Hall, Keith Brooking, rookie Jamaal Anderson and eight other guys (maybe if John Abraham played more than half the season, he’d be included on the first part of this list). On top of all that, the Falcons have a rookie coach from the college ranks (Bobby Petrino). The track record of those coaches is nothing short of abysmal. Let’s face it, this team’s season ended several months ago, when the dog fighting charges first started blowing up in Michael Vick’s face. As for Vick himself, I don’t think he needs to go to jail. He should be placed in a room with three hungry pit bulls for 72 hours. If he survives, great…good for him. Jail is too good for this guy. He’ll always have a place on the Ravens when he gets out. Unless Harrington has a miraculous resurgence, the Falcons could be historically bad.

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: B+
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: C
Offensive line: A
Offensive Grade: A-

Tough Month: December- at Philadelphia, Arizona, at Carolina, Baltimore, at Atlanta

I realize the Rams and Cardinals have made up some ground on the Seahawks in the West. But you have to remember, Seattle managed to win this division without Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander for the majority of the season. Even when they played, they were nowhere near 100%. Entering the season, it appears that both are healthy, and the Seahawks are ready to make a run at reclaiming the NFC title. Deion Branch should be better than last year, since he’ll finally have a training camp and off-season with Seattle under his belt. The offensive line remains intact with All-World left tackle Walter Jones leading the charge. A couple of smart additions on the defensive end, like safety Brian Russell, will help add depth to a unit that suffered a lot of injuries on their own. Plus, the Seahawks have a pretty easy schedule. Their toughest road game outside of the NFC West is at Pittsburgh. Their schedule is soft enough to get them 10 wins even if the ball doesn’t bounce their way. I like this team to surprise the league, win this division (which most publications don’t have them doing) and make a playoff run.

2. St. Louis Rams
Projected Record: 9-7

Quarterback: A-
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: B+

Tough Month: November- at New Orleans, at San Francisco, Seattle

After Seattle, this division is really a toss up. I could have made cases for the Rams and Cardinals to both win this division. To me, the 2007 Rams have a lot in common with the 2006 Chiefs. Coming into last season, everyone praised Larry Johnson as one of the top three backs in the league, running behind one of the best lines in the AFC. But no one picked Kansas City to make the playoffs (except me). Kansas City needed help last year, but they made the playoffs on the last week of the season. In 2007, Stephen Jackson is getting a lot of play as one of the top three backs in the league. Again, you don’t see many people picking the Rams to be anything better than 6-10 or 7-9. If a strong running game is so important in the NFL, and the Rams have a great running attack, why wouldn’t you pick the Rams to have a decent record? Especially with Marc Bulger and Torry Holt keeping defenses honest. I guess it’s because the defense is still pretty lousy. But in this division, the Rams should be able to get four wins, and find around five more elsewhere. That should be good enough to be over .500 and sneak into the postseason.

3. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: A
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: September- at San Francisco, Seattle, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh

The Cardinals need to do one thing to improve enough to make the playoffs. They need to run the football. Edgerrin James can’t have games when he only gets 2.5 yards per carry. As good as the Matt Leinart-Larry Fitzgerald-Anquan Boldin combination could become, they’ll only reach their full potential if there is running game to balance them out. With a lot of new offensive linemen, it doesn’t look good for the Cards ground game in 2007. I do think James will bounce back from the terrible year he had last season. I think he’ll average around 4.0 yards a carry and start to look like the old Edge again. The big problem for the offense will be keeping Matt Leinart upright. I think Leinart is going to be facing David Carr-like pressure this season with his shoddy offensive front. Sacks, and interceptions forced by hurries, will cost the Cardinals several games this year. That, and a very weak defense, will keep Arizona stuck in mediocrity for another season.

4. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: B+
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: September- Arizona, at St. Louis, at Pittsburgh, Seattle

Are the 49ers on the right track? Yes. Are they at the point where they can compete for a division title? No. Alex Smith, while showing improvement last season, still had a quarterback rating of only 74.8. His receivers are Darrell Jackson and Arnaz Battle, two guys would be lucky to be number three receivers on the majority of teams. The offensive line is still suspect. I don’t see Frank Gore rushing for 1,700 yards again (he’s had a number of preseason injury issues). I think there are going to be too many games where the offense just isn’t up to par. And this is certainly not a team that can have its defense carry it. The addition of Patrick Willis was a great draft move. Nate Clements is another great addition, even though they overpaid him considerably and his contract will hurt Frisco in the future. Michael Lewis, a safety that has declined over the past couple of years, was also overpaid for. The 9ers are still starting guys named Marques Douglas, Aubrayo Franklin and Mark Roman. The 49ers were so bad for the last few seasons, it’s going to take more than one good off-season for them to make noise in the West. Think of San Fran as a carbon copy of the Lions. The whole isn’t greater than the sum of the parts. Not yet. This is one darkhorse team to stay away from.

WILD CARD

(6) St. Louis at (3) Seattle
(5) Carolina at (4) Philadelphia

DIVISIONAL

(5) Carolina at (1) New Orleans
(3) Seattle at (2) Chicago

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

New Orleans 30, Seattle 19

SUPER BOWL XLII

New Orleans 33, San Diego 24


Now, time for the picks. In 2006, I was 171-83. Last year, I was 167-84 (that includes a solid 9-2 playoff mark). I actually did better against the experts last season then I did in 2006. Either way, I’m 338-167 (67%). I’m getting two out of every three games right. That may not seem great, but considering some of the clowns at ESPN and CBS are lucky to break .500, I’d say this is the best place for picks. Plus, I was 137-94-9 against the spread. What more do I have to say?

Usually this is the place for my snarky commentary, but since I just reviewed all 32 teams, I’ll save the weekly banter for next Sunday. Just the picks for now. As usual, I do not predict the Redskins games, but come back in a couple of days for a full preview. If you are new to this site, please do not use these picks for gambling purposes, despite the terrific records. The first week is always crazy, so it would be stupid to do so.

THURSDAY

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-6)
Pick: Colts

SUNDAY

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-3)
Pick: Chiefs

Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Steelers

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
Pick: Jaguars, Titans cover

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (PK)
Pick: Rams

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Eagles (though I’ll be rooting for Green Bay)

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Pick: Vikings

New England Patriots (-7.5) at New York Jets
Pick: Patriots

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Pick: Seahawks

Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (-5.5)
Pick: Chargers

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Pick: Lions (picking the Lions on the road…what am I doing???)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)
Pick: Cowboys (either way, someone loses!)

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Pick: Bengals

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Pick: Cardinals

2007 AFC Preview: Year Of The Offense

I’m back for a third year. I know, I can’t believe it either. My predictions for the NFC and famous weekly picks will come tomorrow or Thursday (I’ll remind you then how scary accurate I’ve been the past two seasons). As for today, you’ll have to settle for my AFC prognostications. Last year the Colts made a run to the title. Some experts were surprised a team with a statistically poor defense could do such a thing. After all, defense wins championships, right? Well…sort of. Firstly, Indianapolis’ defense wasn’t as bad as the stats would lead you to believe. Second, and most importantly, I think last season was a beginning of new trend in the NFL.

I think the time of defenses leading teams to championships is coming to a close. We are entering the age of the offense, as evidenced by the majority of the strong teams in the AFC. Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Cincinnati are the four favorites. All four have some of the best offenses ever put together. The second tier teams, like Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Jacksonville are talented. But they are defensive heavy. There’s a reason that I, and other experts, consider these teams to be behind the Colts and Chargers. Just not enough offense. In the NFL, as of this moment, the best offenses have evolved past the capabilities of the best defenses. In other words, if the Colts were facing the Ravens, and the Colts’ offense and Ravens’ defense played to their highest potentials, the Colts would win. In the last few years, the top defenses have been losing ground, and I think 2007 is the year that offenses will evolve past defenses. This doesn’t mean that in five years there won’t be a defensive surge. Football is an ever-changing game and there are always new ideas that change the balance of power. The forward pass changed the game, but defensive coaches eventually caught up. Shotgun formations, counter treys and the West Coast offense all change the game. But the defenses countered. In 2007, offenses are going to reign supreme. Four AFC teams have assembled monster offenses. From the Colts’ no-huddle hybrid, to the Bengals downfield attack to the entire offense on-to-himself named LaDainian Tomlinson, these teams will have advantages against any defense, no matter how good they are. The team with the best offense, that manages to stay healthy all season, is the team that will win Super Bowl XLII.

Without further ado, your 2007 AFC standings.

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: A-
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: B +
Offensive line: B +
Offensive Grade: A-

Tough Month: October- at Cincinnati, Cleveland, at Dallas, at Miami, Washington

The Patriots add a bunch of free agents, and now everyone expects this team to win the Super Bowl, and do it easily. Some have even predicted that this team will finish 16-0. This is joke, right? This team is far from perfect. With their schedule, in this conference, 13 wins would be a remarkable accomplishment. The running game is now completely reliant on Laurence Maroney, who can’t go a week without succumbing to some sort of injury. Behind him are Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk. If Maroney goes down, and he will, a balanced offense all of a sudden becomes dependent entirely on passing. Defensively, the Pats were unanimously applauded for landing Adalius Thomas. Thomas was a good player on a great defense in Baltimore. In New England, especially with their 3-4 scheme, he won’t have defensive linemen occupying blockers for him. He’ll have to shed blocks on his own. Expect Thomas to have down year. Another problem for the Patriots is the recent suspension of Rodney Harrison. Due to steroid and/or HGH use, he’ll miss the first quarter of the season (On a side note, the NFL should suspend steroid users eight games or more. If a four game suspension is all a player is facing, I guarantee you that we’ll begin to see more and more players take HGH, knowing that even if they’re caught, the worst that will happen is a 12-game season and whatever playoff games their teams make. And that’s the worst case scenario. 12 great games with HGH will become more attractive than 16 games without it.). Add to the fact that New England continues to add “me” guys to a squad that used to be the ultimate “we” team, and the Patriots’ chemistry is about to take a nose dive. Randy Moss, Thomas (a guy who constantly complained about money, lack of playing time and lack of recognition in Baltimore) and rookie Brandon Merriweather (last seen kick-stomping a FIU player in the head) are all horrible character additions. In fact, this recent shopping spree by New England reminds me a lot of what the Redskins have done in past years. That didn’t work out very well for Dan Snyder. But, because these are the Patriots, one of ESPN’s Holy Quintet (Pats, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants and Jets), no one dares question the logic behind all these off-season acquisitions. Don’t dare question the genius of Bill Belichick and anyone associated with him. How else do you think Charlie Weis became the greatest college coach of all-time? Just nod your head, close your eyes and agree with all the “yes men” at the Boston/New York-wide Leader of Sports Network that this is the clear cut Super Bowl favorite.

2. New York Jets
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: B-
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: October- NY Giants, at Philadelphia, at Cincinnati, Buffalo

As I said on this page at the beginning of the 2007 playoffs, the Jets were statistically the worst playoff team of all time. That title really means nothing, because it is better to be the “worst playoff team off all time” than the “best team to not reach the playoffs of all time.” What it does mean is that Jets fans have a rude awakening waiting for them in 2007-08. New York played a flat out terrible schedule last year, a situation that will be remedied with this year’s division rotation. The Jets get games against the NFC East and AFC North this season (a big step up from last year’s NFC North and AFC South). That alone would be cause for concern. All other things being equal, from the shift in schedules, I would expect the Jets to win two fewer games this season. There are still concerns on offense, namely the offensive line and quarterback position. Chad Pennington made it through last year relatively healthy, but I wouldn’t count on that happening again. Not that it really matters. Despite getting to the postseason, Pennington had a pretty average season (17 TD, 16 INT). I can’t see him doing much better in 2007. Look for the Jets to lose at least three more games this year than they did last season.

3. Buffalo Bills
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: C-
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive Line: C
Offensive Grade: C

Tough Month: September- Denver, at Pittsburgh, at New England, NY Jets

At this time last year, I ripped this team a new one. The Bills seemed oblivious to the cardinal rule in building offenses. Start with the offensive line and then work from there. The Bills finally listened, and have started remaking their o-line. Granted, they may have overpaid a little for Derrick Dockery (And by a little, I mean way too much…this guy couldn’t pull on a counter trey to save his life while in D.C. I was thrilled to see him go), but their heads were in the right place. Now J.P. Losman can actually begin to achieve his full potential of being a mediocre quarterback instead of a lousy one. I do like the Willis McGahee trade (more on that in a minute) and subsequent Marshawn Lynch pick. I believe Lynch will be AFC rookie of the year this season. Other than that, look for second-rate performances from the Bills, who are at least a year away from competing.

4. Miami Dolphins
Projected Record: 5-11

Quarterback: D+
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: C-
Offensive Grade: D+

Tough Month: December- NY Jets, at Buffalo, Baltimore, at New England, Cincinnati

Well, this team really fell apart, didn’t they? Last season, I thought they were on the verge of challenging New England and making a small run in the AFC. Suffice to say, that was one of the few things (and I mean very few things) I predicted incorrectly last year. Nick Saban is gone, Daunte Culpepper is gone and any chance the Dolphins are going to get better in the next three or four seasons is gone as well. Trent Green is one concussion away from becoming a vegetable. Ronnie Brown will be lucky to have a 3.5 YPC average behind a pedestrian offensive line. And it’s only a matter of time before AARP members Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas aren’t able to lead the defense as they continue to age. And now Cam “Cammy” Cameron Camrington is expected to make this pathetic shell of a team better? Good luck.

AFC NORTH

1. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: A
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: A
Offensive line: B
Offensive Grade: A-

Tough Month: October- New England, at Kansas City, NY Jets, Pittsburgh

The off-field problems of the 2006 Cincinnati Bengals are well documented. But the on-field struggles are not. Fans know that Cincy didn’t make the playoffs, and tend to believe that the Bengals are regressing. Not the case. This team lost a bunch of close games, and was a botched extra point attempt away from making the playoffs last year. The 2007 off-season was quiet in Cincinnati, which is good news. The problems that plagued the Bengals off the field seem to be on the decline. It looks as if everyone is healthy, including Carson Palmer for the first time in two seasons. This team has weapons all over the field on offense, and that should be enough to carry this team to a division title. Defensively, this team is still weak. This is the reason the Bengals won’t get very far in the postseason. But, the same thing was said last year about the Colts. If any team can duplicate what the Colts did last season, it’s Cincinnati.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: B+
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B+

Tough Month: December- Cincinnati, at New England, Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore

Like Cincinnati, the Steelers are another team a lot of people are sleeping on. I really like Mike Tomlin. I’m not sure why exactly. I just know I like him. I think he’ll be the shot in the arm this team needs after their 2006 Super Bowl hangover. Ben Roethlisberger has looked great this preseason. He looks confident in the pocket, something that was lacking after his bizarre ’06 off-season. The defense continues to be the strength of the Steelers. Personally, I dislike the 3-4 defense. I think it creates too many running holes up front and forces linebackers to shed too many blocks. But if there is one team with the personnel to run it, it’s this one. They got even better after getting rid of Joey Porter (who has been on the decline for the past two seasons, but ran his mouth so much, ESPN had no choice but to hype him up). If you go position by position, this team is stronger than any other in the division. Hands down. The depth situation is a problem. The Steelers have weaknesses on both sides of the line, and very little behind Willie Parker. Unlike the Bengals, special teams could be a problem for Pittsburgh. And, as much as I like Tomlin, he is still a rookie coach going against battle-tested Marvin Lewis. Those question marks put Pittsburgh a game or two behind the Bengals, but on the right track to make another run at the Super Bowl next year.

3. Baltimore Ravens
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: C
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: C+
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: December- New England, Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, Pittsburgh

Steve McNair had a very comparable 2006 to Mark Brunell’s 2005. Both started strong, played like smart veterans, and won games. But down the stretch, both faltered. And both played horribly in their respective post-seasons. The aging process finally caught up to Brunell by December 2005, just like it got McNair in December 2006. So why is Baltimore predicted to make a Super Bowl run in 2007? Brunell finished last season on the bench and his team finished with a 5-11 record. McNair may have more in the tank than Brunell did, but he doesn’t have that much more. Why am I to believe that Baltimore’s 2007 campaign will be any different than Washington’s 2006? Yes, I know, the defense. I get it, they’re good. We all get it by now. We know that the Ravens are a defense first team, just like we know Terrell Suggs never shuts up, Ray Lewis stabs people and Ed Reed is a very, very ugly man. But, as I stated at the beginning of this post, the age of defense winning championships is coming to an end. To succeed in the NFL, at least during the regular season, you must have a high-powered offense. The 2006 Ravens were the exception that proved the rule that offenses are taking over the game. But they won’t have enough this year. McNair will break down again. You can bet the mortgage on it. Without a passing game, it doesn’t matter who is running the ball. That’s why I think the trade for Willis McGahee was a waste. Why bother when the other team is stacking the box with eight? Be warned though, the Ravens, after their opener in Cincinnati, have an extremely easy first half. They will go into their bye week no worse than 5-2. After that they have two games against Pittsburgh, another against the Bengals, and games against New England, San Diego, Indianapolis and Seattle. Even a road trip to Miami could be tricky. They may start 5-2, but they’ll probably end the season in the neighborhood of 3-6.

4. Cleveland Browns
Projected Record: 4-12

Quarterback: D
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: B-
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: D+

Tough Month: November- Seattle, at Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, Houston

Enough about Brady Quinn. PLEASE! What has this guy ever done to warrant such hype? He won zero important games in college. Just because he’s a white quarterback from Notre Dame doesn’t mean he’s going to be the next Joe Montana. He isn’t going to be Joe Montana. Or Joe Theismann. Or even Billy Joe Tolliver. I don’t care how good he’s looked against third-stringers in preseason. As I’ve said, and I will continue to say, that if I had the first 32 picks in last year’s NFL draft, I wouldn’t have taken Quinn with ANY of them. Not one. When his contract is up in five years, he will be out of the league. He will end up just like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Tim Couch. The Browns made a huge mistake trading next year’s first round pick to Dallas to move up and get this guy. Since Quinn won’t be able to help this team at all, that pick will probably be very high.

AFC SOUTH

1. Indianapolis Colts
Projected Record: 12-4

Quarterback: A+
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: A+
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: A

Tough Month: November- New England, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Atlanta

The champs come into 2007 with their best offense in years. Which is very scary. The Colts made the right move letting Dominic Rhodes walk. By giving Joseph Addai the majority of the carries, and making him the feature back, the Colts now have a running back that can equal, if not better, the numbers that Edgerrin James produced when with the Colts. Anthony Gonzalez is a solid three or four receiver, and with everyone else getting double-teamed, he could put up some surprising stats. Dallas Clark is fully healthy (don’t forget, he wasn’t even at 75% for the playoffs and the Super Bowl last season). Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are each going to gain their usual 1000+ yards. The loss of Tarik Glenn could hurt early in the year, but Tony Ugoh was a terrific draft pick by Indy, and by mid-season, he should be fine on Manning’s blind side. However, the Colts lost a lot of defensive talent. Some will say that doesn’t matter since they were ranked 32nd against the rush anyway. However, most of those running yards came in the second half of the season, including that ridiculous loss to Jacksonville, with a bunch of players injured and out of the lineup. In the playoffs, with almost everyone healthy, their defense was a completely different unit. They shut down Kansas City and Baltimore (although the Ravens helped considerably), did enough to stop New England in the second half, then embarrassed Bad Rex Grossman and the inept Bears in the Super Bowl. The loss of Cato June and a portion of their secondary will hurt the Colts. And in the ultra-competitive AFC, that will be the difference in January.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: C-
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: D
Offensive line: A
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: November- at New Orleans, at Tennessee, San Diego, Buffalo

I honestly have no idea what to do with Jacksonville. Looking at this team position by position makes you realize how disappointing their last two seasons have been. Two years ago, the Jags rode an easy schedule to the playoffs, but had to go to Foxboro and were promptly crushed. Last season, Jacksonville would destroy Indianapolis one week, only to lose to Houston the next. With Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor as a lethal 1a-1b combination out of the backfield, a great and young offensive line (this will be a great line for years to come) and a hoard of young talent on the defensive side, it’s a wonder this team hasn’t reeled off 12 or 13 wins and made a run in the playoffs. Then you remember that the quarterback play (which will wisely go into the hands of David Garrard instead of the inconsistent Byron Leftwich) has been less than stellar and Jacksonville possesses no receivers that can hang on to the ball and Jack Del Rio is nothing special as a coach, and you also remember all the losses to Houston, and you come to the conclusion that Jacksonville is nothing more than a 9-7/10-6 team that will go one-and-done. A talented team. But a second-tier team nonetheless.

3. Tennessee Titans
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: B+
Running Backs: C-
Receivers/TE: D
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: September- at Jacksonville, Indianapolis, at New Orleans

As talented as Vince Young was last year (proving my prediction that he would be an abject failure a bit incorrect), it’s easy to forget that this team has no proven running back, receivers (outside of Eric Moulds), offensive linemen, defensive linemen and linebackers. And their best defensive player will spend the NFL season in exile in some third-rated wrestling league. Now that NFL defenses have had a year to review tape of Young, it will be very interesting to see if Young can do any better than last year’s 8-8 record. He’s going to have to do it by himself.

4. Houston Texans
Projected Record: 5-11

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: F
Offensive Grade: D

Tough Month: October- Miami, at Jacksonville, Tennessee, at San Diego

Just in case you forgot, the Texans passed on Reggie Bush and Vince Young to select Mario Williams (is he still in the league). I’m sure you didn’t forget, and all 17 Texans fans haven’t forgotten either.

AFC WEST

1. San Diego Chargers
Projected Record: 13-3

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: A+
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: A

Tough Month: November- at Minnesota, Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, Baltimore

I think Phillip Rivers is terrible. I think Norv Turner is worse. A Rivers-Turner combination should fail miserably. And yet, I have this team making the Super Bowl. Yes, I have a Norv Turner coached team making the Super Bowl. Never thought I’d see the day. The reason I have them making the playoffs is pretty obvious. The reason’s name is LaDainian Tomlinson. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll carry this team. I don’t think Rivers’ sidearm throws or Turner’s ineptitude can keep this team from the playoffs and Glendale at the end of the season. As long as Turner can stay out of his own way and makes sure that LT gets the carries he needs, there isn’t a defense out there that can stop San Diego. On the other side of the ball, San Diego is fast, aggressive and talented. From the front lines to the safeties, this is one of the top three or four units in the league. This team should be dominant for the next four to five seasons. Hiring Turner will probably cut that dominant period in half, but six months isn’t enough time for Norv to undermine the overwhelming ability that San Diego possesses.

2. Denver Broncos
Projected Record: 9-7

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: September- at Buffalo, Oakland, Jacksonville, at Indianapolis

After years of two and three back systems, Travis Henry is going to be the man that finally convinces Mike Shanahan to go to his first one-back scheme since Terrell Davis was healthy at the turn of the century. Travis Henry? Really? The truth is that it probably doesn’t matter who is in the Denver backfield, they’ll put up good numbers. The question mark for Denver is Jay Cutler, who looked like a rookie in his limited action last season. I think Cutler is going to be a terrific player, just not this year. Other than Javon Walker, he doesn’t have enough help. Defensively, the Broncos keep shuttling in retreads along their defensive line, but other than Champ Bailey, this defense really shouldn’t scare anyone (And no, Redskins fans do not regret trading Bailey. He wasn’t going to resign here anyway, and the Skins were lucky to get anything, not to mention a Pro-Bowl caliber running back, for Bailey. This is a fact that all of ESPN’s “analysts” like to overlook because it gets in the way of their Redskins bashing.). This team is a year, a receiver and a dominant defensive lineman away from challenging San Diego in the West.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: D
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: C+
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: December- San Diego, at Denver, Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets

Yes, the starting quarterback for Kansas City is Damon Huard. Yikes! This could ugly in a hurry for the Chiefs. Can anyone seriously consider Huard a quarterback who could lead any team to the playoffs? I can’t. Larry Johnson is great, but he’ll need 500 carries to get this team anywhere close to respectability. Tony Gonzalez is one year away from officially being “over the hill.” The offensive line keeps losing players with retirements and free agent defections. The Chiefs have made no real effort to upgrade their defense. What has this team done to better itself from last year’s team that barely made the playoffs? Nothing. Look for them to fall back to middle of the standings.

4. Oakland Raiders
Projected Record: 3-13

Quarterback: D
Running Backs: C+
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: D
Offensive Grade: D

Tough Month: December- Denver, at Green Bay, Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, San Diego

They may be better than last year’s misguided version, but not by much. Their defense is surprisingly strong, but still young. Their offense is going to challenge the 2006 Raiders for complete ineptitude. Especially with no sign of getting Jamarcus Russell anywhere near Oakland this season. And in the Year of the Offense, that won’t help the Raiders get anywhere close to leaving the cellar.

WILD CARD
(6) Jacksonville at (3) New England
(5) Pittsburgh at (4) Cincinnati

DIVISIONAL
(4) Cincinnati at (1) San Diego
(3) New England at (2) Indianapolis

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

San Diego 34, Indianapolis 31