2007 AFC Preview: Year Of The Offense

I’m back for a third year. I know, I can’t believe it either. My predictions for the NFC and famous weekly picks will come tomorrow or Thursday (I’ll remind you then how scary accurate I’ve been the past two seasons). As for today, you’ll have to settle for my AFC prognostications. Last year the Colts made a run to the title. Some experts were surprised a team with a statistically poor defense could do such a thing. After all, defense wins championships, right? Well…sort of. Firstly, Indianapolis’ defense wasn’t as bad as the stats would lead you to believe. Second, and most importantly, I think last season was a beginning of new trend in the NFL.

I think the time of defenses leading teams to championships is coming to a close. We are entering the age of the offense, as evidenced by the majority of the strong teams in the AFC. Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Cincinnati are the four favorites. All four have some of the best offenses ever put together. The second tier teams, like Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Jacksonville are talented. But they are defensive heavy. There’s a reason that I, and other experts, consider these teams to be behind the Colts and Chargers. Just not enough offense. In the NFL, as of this moment, the best offenses have evolved past the capabilities of the best defenses. In other words, if the Colts were facing the Ravens, and the Colts’ offense and Ravens’ defense played to their highest potentials, the Colts would win. In the last few years, the top defenses have been losing ground, and I think 2007 is the year that offenses will evolve past defenses. This doesn’t mean that in five years there won’t be a defensive surge. Football is an ever-changing game and there are always new ideas that change the balance of power. The forward pass changed the game, but defensive coaches eventually caught up. Shotgun formations, counter treys and the West Coast offense all change the game. But the defenses countered. In 2007, offenses are going to reign supreme. Four AFC teams have assembled monster offenses. From the Colts’ no-huddle hybrid, to the Bengals downfield attack to the entire offense on-to-himself named LaDainian Tomlinson, these teams will have advantages against any defense, no matter how good they are. The team with the best offense, that manages to stay healthy all season, is the team that will win Super Bowl XLII.

Without further ado, your 2007 AFC standings.

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: A-
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: B +
Offensive line: B +
Offensive Grade: A-

Tough Month: October- at Cincinnati, Cleveland, at Dallas, at Miami, Washington

The Patriots add a bunch of free agents, and now everyone expects this team to win the Super Bowl, and do it easily. Some have even predicted that this team will finish 16-0. This is joke, right? This team is far from perfect. With their schedule, in this conference, 13 wins would be a remarkable accomplishment. The running game is now completely reliant on Laurence Maroney, who can’t go a week without succumbing to some sort of injury. Behind him are Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk. If Maroney goes down, and he will, a balanced offense all of a sudden becomes dependent entirely on passing. Defensively, the Pats were unanimously applauded for landing Adalius Thomas. Thomas was a good player on a great defense in Baltimore. In New England, especially with their 3-4 scheme, he won’t have defensive linemen occupying blockers for him. He’ll have to shed blocks on his own. Expect Thomas to have down year. Another problem for the Patriots is the recent suspension of Rodney Harrison. Due to steroid and/or HGH use, he’ll miss the first quarter of the season (On a side note, the NFL should suspend steroid users eight games or more. If a four game suspension is all a player is facing, I guarantee you that we’ll begin to see more and more players take HGH, knowing that even if they’re caught, the worst that will happen is a 12-game season and whatever playoff games their teams make. And that’s the worst case scenario. 12 great games with HGH will become more attractive than 16 games without it.). Add to the fact that New England continues to add “me” guys to a squad that used to be the ultimate “we” team, and the Patriots’ chemistry is about to take a nose dive. Randy Moss, Thomas (a guy who constantly complained about money, lack of playing time and lack of recognition in Baltimore) and rookie Brandon Merriweather (last seen kick-stomping a FIU player in the head) are all horrible character additions. In fact, this recent shopping spree by New England reminds me a lot of what the Redskins have done in past years. That didn’t work out very well for Dan Snyder. But, because these are the Patriots, one of ESPN’s Holy Quintet (Pats, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants and Jets), no one dares question the logic behind all these off-season acquisitions. Don’t dare question the genius of Bill Belichick and anyone associated with him. How else do you think Charlie Weis became the greatest college coach of all-time? Just nod your head, close your eyes and agree with all the “yes men” at the Boston/New York-wide Leader of Sports Network that this is the clear cut Super Bowl favorite.

2. New York Jets
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: B-
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: October- NY Giants, at Philadelphia, at Cincinnati, Buffalo

As I said on this page at the beginning of the 2007 playoffs, the Jets were statistically the worst playoff team of all time. That title really means nothing, because it is better to be the “worst playoff team off all time” than the “best team to not reach the playoffs of all time.” What it does mean is that Jets fans have a rude awakening waiting for them in 2007-08. New York played a flat out terrible schedule last year, a situation that will be remedied with this year’s division rotation. The Jets get games against the NFC East and AFC North this season (a big step up from last year’s NFC North and AFC South). That alone would be cause for concern. All other things being equal, from the shift in schedules, I would expect the Jets to win two fewer games this season. There are still concerns on offense, namely the offensive line and quarterback position. Chad Pennington made it through last year relatively healthy, but I wouldn’t count on that happening again. Not that it really matters. Despite getting to the postseason, Pennington had a pretty average season (17 TD, 16 INT). I can’t see him doing much better in 2007. Look for the Jets to lose at least three more games this year than they did last season.

3. Buffalo Bills
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: C-
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive Line: C
Offensive Grade: C

Tough Month: September- Denver, at Pittsburgh, at New England, NY Jets

At this time last year, I ripped this team a new one. The Bills seemed oblivious to the cardinal rule in building offenses. Start with the offensive line and then work from there. The Bills finally listened, and have started remaking their o-line. Granted, they may have overpaid a little for Derrick Dockery (And by a little, I mean way too much…this guy couldn’t pull on a counter trey to save his life while in D.C. I was thrilled to see him go), but their heads were in the right place. Now J.P. Losman can actually begin to achieve his full potential of being a mediocre quarterback instead of a lousy one. I do like the Willis McGahee trade (more on that in a minute) and subsequent Marshawn Lynch pick. I believe Lynch will be AFC rookie of the year this season. Other than that, look for second-rate performances from the Bills, who are at least a year away from competing.

4. Miami Dolphins
Projected Record: 5-11

Quarterback: D+
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: C-
Offensive Grade: D+

Tough Month: December- NY Jets, at Buffalo, Baltimore, at New England, Cincinnati

Well, this team really fell apart, didn’t they? Last season, I thought they were on the verge of challenging New England and making a small run in the AFC. Suffice to say, that was one of the few things (and I mean very few things) I predicted incorrectly last year. Nick Saban is gone, Daunte Culpepper is gone and any chance the Dolphins are going to get better in the next three or four seasons is gone as well. Trent Green is one concussion away from becoming a vegetable. Ronnie Brown will be lucky to have a 3.5 YPC average behind a pedestrian offensive line. And it’s only a matter of time before AARP members Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas aren’t able to lead the defense as they continue to age. And now Cam “Cammy” Cameron Camrington is expected to make this pathetic shell of a team better? Good luck.

AFC NORTH

1. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: A
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: A
Offensive line: B
Offensive Grade: A-

Tough Month: October- New England, at Kansas City, NY Jets, Pittsburgh

The off-field problems of the 2006 Cincinnati Bengals are well documented. But the on-field struggles are not. Fans know that Cincy didn’t make the playoffs, and tend to believe that the Bengals are regressing. Not the case. This team lost a bunch of close games, and was a botched extra point attempt away from making the playoffs last year. The 2007 off-season was quiet in Cincinnati, which is good news. The problems that plagued the Bengals off the field seem to be on the decline. It looks as if everyone is healthy, including Carson Palmer for the first time in two seasons. This team has weapons all over the field on offense, and that should be enough to carry this team to a division title. Defensively, this team is still weak. This is the reason the Bengals won’t get very far in the postseason. But, the same thing was said last year about the Colts. If any team can duplicate what the Colts did last season, it’s Cincinnati.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: B+
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B+

Tough Month: December- Cincinnati, at New England, Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore

Like Cincinnati, the Steelers are another team a lot of people are sleeping on. I really like Mike Tomlin. I’m not sure why exactly. I just know I like him. I think he’ll be the shot in the arm this team needs after their 2006 Super Bowl hangover. Ben Roethlisberger has looked great this preseason. He looks confident in the pocket, something that was lacking after his bizarre ’06 off-season. The defense continues to be the strength of the Steelers. Personally, I dislike the 3-4 defense. I think it creates too many running holes up front and forces linebackers to shed too many blocks. But if there is one team with the personnel to run it, it’s this one. They got even better after getting rid of Joey Porter (who has been on the decline for the past two seasons, but ran his mouth so much, ESPN had no choice but to hype him up). If you go position by position, this team is stronger than any other in the division. Hands down. The depth situation is a problem. The Steelers have weaknesses on both sides of the line, and very little behind Willie Parker. Unlike the Bengals, special teams could be a problem for Pittsburgh. And, as much as I like Tomlin, he is still a rookie coach going against battle-tested Marvin Lewis. Those question marks put Pittsburgh a game or two behind the Bengals, but on the right track to make another run at the Super Bowl next year.

3. Baltimore Ravens
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: C
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: C+
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: December- New England, Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, Pittsburgh

Steve McNair had a very comparable 2006 to Mark Brunell’s 2005. Both started strong, played like smart veterans, and won games. But down the stretch, both faltered. And both played horribly in their respective post-seasons. The aging process finally caught up to Brunell by December 2005, just like it got McNair in December 2006. So why is Baltimore predicted to make a Super Bowl run in 2007? Brunell finished last season on the bench and his team finished with a 5-11 record. McNair may have more in the tank than Brunell did, but he doesn’t have that much more. Why am I to believe that Baltimore’s 2007 campaign will be any different than Washington’s 2006? Yes, I know, the defense. I get it, they’re good. We all get it by now. We know that the Ravens are a defense first team, just like we know Terrell Suggs never shuts up, Ray Lewis stabs people and Ed Reed is a very, very ugly man. But, as I stated at the beginning of this post, the age of defense winning championships is coming to an end. To succeed in the NFL, at least during the regular season, you must have a high-powered offense. The 2006 Ravens were the exception that proved the rule that offenses are taking over the game. But they won’t have enough this year. McNair will break down again. You can bet the mortgage on it. Without a passing game, it doesn’t matter who is running the ball. That’s why I think the trade for Willis McGahee was a waste. Why bother when the other team is stacking the box with eight? Be warned though, the Ravens, after their opener in Cincinnati, have an extremely easy first half. They will go into their bye week no worse than 5-2. After that they have two games against Pittsburgh, another against the Bengals, and games against New England, San Diego, Indianapolis and Seattle. Even a road trip to Miami could be tricky. They may start 5-2, but they’ll probably end the season in the neighborhood of 3-6.

4. Cleveland Browns
Projected Record: 4-12

Quarterback: D
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: B-
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: D+

Tough Month: November- Seattle, at Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, Houston

Enough about Brady Quinn. PLEASE! What has this guy ever done to warrant such hype? He won zero important games in college. Just because he’s a white quarterback from Notre Dame doesn’t mean he’s going to be the next Joe Montana. He isn’t going to be Joe Montana. Or Joe Theismann. Or even Billy Joe Tolliver. I don’t care how good he’s looked against third-stringers in preseason. As I’ve said, and I will continue to say, that if I had the first 32 picks in last year’s NFL draft, I wouldn’t have taken Quinn with ANY of them. Not one. When his contract is up in five years, he will be out of the league. He will end up just like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Tim Couch. The Browns made a huge mistake trading next year’s first round pick to Dallas to move up and get this guy. Since Quinn won’t be able to help this team at all, that pick will probably be very high.

AFC SOUTH

1. Indianapolis Colts
Projected Record: 12-4

Quarterback: A+
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: A+
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: A

Tough Month: November- New England, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Atlanta

The champs come into 2007 with their best offense in years. Which is very scary. The Colts made the right move letting Dominic Rhodes walk. By giving Joseph Addai the majority of the carries, and making him the feature back, the Colts now have a running back that can equal, if not better, the numbers that Edgerrin James produced when with the Colts. Anthony Gonzalez is a solid three or four receiver, and with everyone else getting double-teamed, he could put up some surprising stats. Dallas Clark is fully healthy (don’t forget, he wasn’t even at 75% for the playoffs and the Super Bowl last season). Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are each going to gain their usual 1000+ yards. The loss of Tarik Glenn could hurt early in the year, but Tony Ugoh was a terrific draft pick by Indy, and by mid-season, he should be fine on Manning’s blind side. However, the Colts lost a lot of defensive talent. Some will say that doesn’t matter since they were ranked 32nd against the rush anyway. However, most of those running yards came in the second half of the season, including that ridiculous loss to Jacksonville, with a bunch of players injured and out of the lineup. In the playoffs, with almost everyone healthy, their defense was a completely different unit. They shut down Kansas City and Baltimore (although the Ravens helped considerably), did enough to stop New England in the second half, then embarrassed Bad Rex Grossman and the inept Bears in the Super Bowl. The loss of Cato June and a portion of their secondary will hurt the Colts. And in the ultra-competitive AFC, that will be the difference in January.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: C-
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: D
Offensive line: A
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: November- at New Orleans, at Tennessee, San Diego, Buffalo

I honestly have no idea what to do with Jacksonville. Looking at this team position by position makes you realize how disappointing their last two seasons have been. Two years ago, the Jags rode an easy schedule to the playoffs, but had to go to Foxboro and were promptly crushed. Last season, Jacksonville would destroy Indianapolis one week, only to lose to Houston the next. With Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor as a lethal 1a-1b combination out of the backfield, a great and young offensive line (this will be a great line for years to come) and a hoard of young talent on the defensive side, it’s a wonder this team hasn’t reeled off 12 or 13 wins and made a run in the playoffs. Then you remember that the quarterback play (which will wisely go into the hands of David Garrard instead of the inconsistent Byron Leftwich) has been less than stellar and Jacksonville possesses no receivers that can hang on to the ball and Jack Del Rio is nothing special as a coach, and you also remember all the losses to Houston, and you come to the conclusion that Jacksonville is nothing more than a 9-7/10-6 team that will go one-and-done. A talented team. But a second-tier team nonetheless.

3. Tennessee Titans
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: B+
Running Backs: C-
Receivers/TE: D
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: September- at Jacksonville, Indianapolis, at New Orleans

As talented as Vince Young was last year (proving my prediction that he would be an abject failure a bit incorrect), it’s easy to forget that this team has no proven running back, receivers (outside of Eric Moulds), offensive linemen, defensive linemen and linebackers. And their best defensive player will spend the NFL season in exile in some third-rated wrestling league. Now that NFL defenses have had a year to review tape of Young, it will be very interesting to see if Young can do any better than last year’s 8-8 record. He’s going to have to do it by himself.

4. Houston Texans
Projected Record: 5-11

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: F
Offensive Grade: D

Tough Month: October- Miami, at Jacksonville, Tennessee, at San Diego

Just in case you forgot, the Texans passed on Reggie Bush and Vince Young to select Mario Williams (is he still in the league). I’m sure you didn’t forget, and all 17 Texans fans haven’t forgotten either.

AFC WEST

1. San Diego Chargers
Projected Record: 13-3

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: A+
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: A

Tough Month: November- at Minnesota, Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, Baltimore

I think Phillip Rivers is terrible. I think Norv Turner is worse. A Rivers-Turner combination should fail miserably. And yet, I have this team making the Super Bowl. Yes, I have a Norv Turner coached team making the Super Bowl. Never thought I’d see the day. The reason I have them making the playoffs is pretty obvious. The reason’s name is LaDainian Tomlinson. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll carry this team. I don’t think Rivers’ sidearm throws or Turner’s ineptitude can keep this team from the playoffs and Glendale at the end of the season. As long as Turner can stay out of his own way and makes sure that LT gets the carries he needs, there isn’t a defense out there that can stop San Diego. On the other side of the ball, San Diego is fast, aggressive and talented. From the front lines to the safeties, this is one of the top three or four units in the league. This team should be dominant for the next four to five seasons. Hiring Turner will probably cut that dominant period in half, but six months isn’t enough time for Norv to undermine the overwhelming ability that San Diego possesses.

2. Denver Broncos
Projected Record: 9-7

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: September- at Buffalo, Oakland, Jacksonville, at Indianapolis

After years of two and three back systems, Travis Henry is going to be the man that finally convinces Mike Shanahan to go to his first one-back scheme since Terrell Davis was healthy at the turn of the century. Travis Henry? Really? The truth is that it probably doesn’t matter who is in the Denver backfield, they’ll put up good numbers. The question mark for Denver is Jay Cutler, who looked like a rookie in his limited action last season. I think Cutler is going to be a terrific player, just not this year. Other than Javon Walker, he doesn’t have enough help. Defensively, the Broncos keep shuttling in retreads along their defensive line, but other than Champ Bailey, this defense really shouldn’t scare anyone (And no, Redskins fans do not regret trading Bailey. He wasn’t going to resign here anyway, and the Skins were lucky to get anything, not to mention a Pro-Bowl caliber running back, for Bailey. This is a fact that all of ESPN’s “analysts” like to overlook because it gets in the way of their Redskins bashing.). This team is a year, a receiver and a dominant defensive lineman away from challenging San Diego in the West.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: D
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: C+
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: December- San Diego, at Denver, Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets

Yes, the starting quarterback for Kansas City is Damon Huard. Yikes! This could ugly in a hurry for the Chiefs. Can anyone seriously consider Huard a quarterback who could lead any team to the playoffs? I can’t. Larry Johnson is great, but he’ll need 500 carries to get this team anywhere close to respectability. Tony Gonzalez is one year away from officially being “over the hill.” The offensive line keeps losing players with retirements and free agent defections. The Chiefs have made no real effort to upgrade their defense. What has this team done to better itself from last year’s team that barely made the playoffs? Nothing. Look for them to fall back to middle of the standings.

4. Oakland Raiders
Projected Record: 3-13

Quarterback: D
Running Backs: C+
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: D
Offensive Grade: D

Tough Month: December- Denver, at Green Bay, Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, San Diego

They may be better than last year’s misguided version, but not by much. Their defense is surprisingly strong, but still young. Their offense is going to challenge the 2006 Raiders for complete ineptitude. Especially with no sign of getting Jamarcus Russell anywhere near Oakland this season. And in the Year of the Offense, that won’t help the Raiders get anywhere close to leaving the cellar.

WILD CARD
(6) Jacksonville at (3) New England
(5) Pittsburgh at (4) Cincinnati

DIVISIONAL
(4) Cincinnati at (1) San Diego
(3) New England at (2) Indianapolis

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

San Diego 34, Indianapolis 31