2007 NFC Preview And Week 1 Picks: Insanity Defined

There is no doubt about the AFC being the better conference. The last four Super Bowl winners have come from the AFC. The strongest teams in 2007 appear to be from the AFC. The only reason to do a NFC preview is to predict which team will suffer a beat down in early February at the hands of San Diego. Except this year, that’s just not the case.

While the AFC is certainly stronger, the best offense in the NFL can be found in New Orleans. In a year which offenses will take over the game, the Saints should be able to ride their high-octane, versatile and dangerously quick offense to a title. Here’s the rest of the NFC for the sake of it. After the previews and Super Bowl pick, are my week one picks. Enjoy.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B+

Tough Month: December- Seattle, NY Giants, at Dallas, at New Orleans, Buffalo

It pains me to do this. It really does. But in a division that contains four good, but nowhere near complete teams, the Eagles have the fewest question marks. Therefore, they get the nod. Barely. While Donovan McNabb continues to steal headlines, the 2007 Eagles are much less about McHernia then they are about Brian Westbrook. As long as the Eagles have a good offensive line and they have Westbrook’s ability to stretch the field, they should be able to move the ball fairly well. Westbrook and the o-line will make it much easier for the middling McNabb and his well-below average receiving corps to have success. And no, I don’t think McNabb will make it through the season healthy. He hasn’t done so in over three seasons. The defense will still have problems stopping the run, but the Eagles still have one of the games’ better defensive backfields. Philly is slightly better than the rest of the division, but they are certainly not among the top six or seven teams in the NFL, and they shouldn’t come anywhere close to the Super Bowl.

2. Washington Redskins
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B

Tough Month: November- at NY Jets, Philadelphia, at Dallas, at Tampa Bay

More on the Redskins in the next couple of days. As usual, I’ll have my weekly game preview for the Burgundy and Gold as a separate post. Let’s just say the Redskins aren’t in the dire straights that every television analyst puts them in. I’m picking them here to be safe, because like a lot of other teams, there are several question marks that need answering. This team, if you go position-by-position, has as much talent as anybody. The quarterback situation is an issue. The defensive line is one of the weakest in the league. Other than that, I’d put the Redskins roster up against any other teams. The schedule makers did the Skins no favors (surprise, surprise). Last year, playing a second place schedule, the Redskins faced eight playoff teams, which was among the highest in the league. This year, playing a last place schedule, they play NINE games against playoff teams, which is the most in the NFL. How does that work? Can we please stop shortchanging this team? All I’m asking is for fair treatment from the NFL and the national media. Fair treatment! That’s it. We don’t need to have a McNabb or T.O. watch for Clinton Portis, but some fair coverage of the team would be awfully nice. I think Joe Gibbs has earned it.

3. Dallas Cowboys
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: B+
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: November- at Philadelphia, at NY Giants, Washington, NY Jets, Green Bay

Ok, let me get this straight. The Cowboys replace Bill Parcells, one of the ten greatest coaches in NFL history, with Wade Phillips, who has failed everywhere he’s gone, and everyone says that Dallas is going to be better? What? This isn’t like going from Marty Schottenheimer to Norv Turner. Before we pencil in another one of ESPN’s Holy Quintet for the Super Bowl, let’s take a good look at this team. First, there’s Tony Romo. Here’s a guy who put together three or four good games last season, and now he’s Tom Brady’s long lost brother. Romo hasn’t won a Super Bowl yet. He hasn’t won a playoff game yet (Didn’t he cost the Cowboys a playoff game last season? Something about a fumbled snap…I don’t remember exactly). He hasn’t even been a starting quarterback for more than half a season. Romo is still in the second-class section of NFL quarterbacks. Maybe one day he’ll move up. Furthermore, the line which he is playing behind is still nothing more than middle-of-the-pack. Leonard Davis, a complete bust in Arizona, will continue to be a complete bust in Dallas. Just because he’s 6-8 doesn’t mean he’s a good offensive lineman. His height won’t make a difference when a faster lineman or linebacker gets past him. And before we forget, there’s this whole Terrell Owens situation that Phillips will have to deal with. There are only two ways the Phillips-Owens situation will end. Either they’ll get along and everyone will be happy, or Owens will continue to systematically destroy every team he’s ever been on and Phillips, who lacks a pair, will let him do it. Which one do you think is more likely? So is this a Super Bowl team? No. This may not even be a playoff team.

4. New York Giants
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: C+
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: C-
Offensive Grade: C+

Tough Month: December- at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, at Buffalo, New England

Now that the Giants have gotten rid of Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, Tiki Barber and the rest of the offense should finally be able to grow and make a playoff push. Wait a minute…what was that? Coughlin’s still here? That’s just not possible. How many good teams does he have to ruin before he gets fired. And you say Tiki Barber retired? Man, this is going to be one ugly season for the Giants. I guess when the biggest story out of training camp is whether a washed up defensive end will report to practice, then you can pretty much book that team for a maximum of six wins. Another scheduling note: it’s great to see the NFL is still helping the Giants. When it was announced that the NFL would have the Giants and Dolphins play in London, the natural assumption was that the NFL would make the Giants the designated “home team.” By doing so, it would make up for the extra home game the Giants got to play two seasons ago against the Saints in the Meadowlands. Instead, the NFL made the Dolphins the home team, thereby allowing the Giants to play only seven true road games for the second time in three seasons. Furthermore, the Giants are scheduled to play the Jets “on the road” this season (By on the road I mean instead of being in Northern New Jersey’s home locker room, they’ll be inconvenienced by moving 50 feet down a tunnel to the visiting locker room.) So the Giants, in reality, are playing six true road games this year. In the last three seasons, each NFL team has played 24 regular season road games. Except the Giants, who will play only 21. Pathetic that they still won’t be .500 this year.

NFC NORTH

1. Chicago Bears
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: C
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: December- NY Giants, at Washington, at Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans

The Bears don’t have to do anything about their quarterback situation. They don’t have to do anything about their pathetic group of their receivers. They don’t have to have two competent running backs. They don’t have to put Devin Hester on offense. They don’t have to improve in any way. As long as they don’t switch divisions, they can just kick up their heels, watch the rest of the North do nothing in the off-season and pencil themselves in for a minimum of 10-11 wins a season. Must be nice.

2. Green Bay Packers
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: D
Receivers/TE: C
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: September- Philadelphia, at NY Giants, San Diego, at Minnesota

Brett “Roger Clemens” Favre continues to play, and continues to handcuff this organization. Meanwhile, he’s playing with several rookies along the offensive line, a rookie running back, and the same hodgepodge of receivers he had last season. Green Bay’s defense may be slightly better in 2007, but it’s not good enough to make a difference. This team got to .500 last year because they had four games against the Lions and Vikings. In any other division, they’d be lucky to grab five wins.

3. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: F
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: D
Offensive line: A-
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: October- at Chicago, at Dallas, Philadelphia

Here’s a bad omen for the Vikings. As of a couple of days ago, Yahoo! had Michael Vick ranked ahead of Tarvaris Jackson for fantasy purposes. Which means that, according to Yahoo! rankings, you’d score more points with an incarcerated Mick Vick then you would with an actual NFL starting quarterback. Yahoo! may not be that far off.

4. Detroit Lions
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: D-
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: December- at Minnesota, Dallas, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Green Bay

Definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. In this case, the people who are insane are “experts” and other analysts who continue to expect Detroit to finish on the other side of the .500 mark and become their annual sleeper team. How many years in a row has Detroit been the trendy darkhorse? Three? Four? How many winning seasons have they had during that time? I rest my case. The Lions still have one of the worst offensive lines in football and no defense of which to speak of. It’s going to be hard for Jon Kitna to put up the necessary 30 points a game from his back.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: A-
Running Backs: A+
Receivers/TE: A-
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: A

Tough Month: October- Carolina, at Seattle, Atlanta, at San Francisco

Ladies and gentlemen, your Super Bowl XLII champions. Drew Brees is behind only Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer in terms of pure talent. The Saints have the NFC’s best running back tandem. They have three solid receivers. They have a veteran offensive line. What’s not to love? This team, if healthy, can only be better than last season. This will be Bress’ second year in the Saints offense. Reggie Bush will no longer be a rookie. The coaching staff had another entire off-season to figure out how to share the ball between Bush and Deuce McAllister. Again, barring injuries, I just don’t see how any team can possibly stop the Saints offense. When it comes to their potential meeting in the Super Bowl with San Diego, you have to figure that the offenses will cancel each other out, and that the Chargers defense will be the difference. I’d like to think the difference will be coaching. If the Chargers meet the Saints, it will be in the Super Bowl where the Norv Turner factor finally costs the Chargers. I’d take my chances with Sean Payton any day of the week. On a side note, I realize how similar my predictions are to Sports Illustrated, which has the same Super Bowl matchup that I do. Rest assured, I came up with these predictions a few weeks ago, well before I saw the Sports Illustrated preview edition. I don’t need that airhead Peter King (the sole reason Art Monk isn’t in the Hall of Fame but Crackhead Irvin is) to tell me what’s going to happen. He actually picked New England to win the Super Bowl. I guess his own magazine found him so completely retarded that it picked against him.

2. Carolina Panthers
Projected Record: 10-6

Quarterback: B-
Running Backs: B-
Receivers/TE: B
Offensive line: B+
Offensive Grade: B

Tough Month: October- at New Orleans, at Arizona, Indianapolis

The Panthers killed me last season. I kept waiting for them to wake up and realize that they were better than a .500 team, and they never did. Jake Delhomme had a terrible season. The defense, once vaunted, also had a terrible season. The Panthers couldn’t move the ball or stop the opposition from moving the ball with any consistency. That usually adds up to a mediocre record (unless you’re the Jets). I’m going to give Delhomme and the Panthers offense the benefit of the doubt. I think they really underachieved last season. I look for them to make the playoffs this year. I think Delhomme is ready for a career year. DeAngelo Williams and DeShawn Foster will finally be healthy and develop into the two-back system that the Panthers need. Steve Smith will rebound from his down 2006 season. The defense will return to pre-2006 form. Yep, I’m betting on the Panthers again. I just won’t be as hesitant as I was last year to jump off the bandwagon if they start sputtering around November.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 7-9

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: C+
Offensive Grade: C

Tough Month: September- at Seattle, New Orleans, St. Louis, at Carolina

Does anyone know who the quarterback is on this team? Apparently Jeff Garcia is going to get the starting nod in week one. After that, it’s anybody’s guess. Chris Simms is still there. Bruce Gradkowski and Luke McCown (not to be confused with Josh McCown or Cade McNown) are there as well. It’s still up in the air whether Jake Plummer will report or not. It looks like he’s going to retire, but who knows. Cadillac Williams won’t have Mike Alstott blocking for him. The o-line features one rookie and a couple of young unknowns. The number two receiver is David Boston, who we last heard from around 2000. The secondary, after Ronde Barber, has a bunch of below-average players who have bounced around from team to team. If it wasn’t for the linebacking corps and part of the defensive line, it would be a very long season for the Bucs. A relatively easy schedule and the Atlanta Falcons will keep Tampa Bay out of the cellar.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 4-12

Quarterback: F
Running Backs: C
Receivers/TE: C+
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: D+

Tough Month: December- at St. Louis, New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, Seattle

Man, where to begin here. I guess the quarterback position is the obvious place. Joey Harrington steps in as a starter on his third team. No one may have lucked out more than Harrington, who was only expected to be a third-stringer six months ago when he arrived in Atlanta. Running back Warrick Dunn is coming back from off-season back surgery, which might as well be a death sentence for an aging scat back. Two rookies will start on the offensive line. The defense stars DeAngelo Hall, Keith Brooking, rookie Jamaal Anderson and eight other guys (maybe if John Abraham played more than half the season, he’d be included on the first part of this list). On top of all that, the Falcons have a rookie coach from the college ranks (Bobby Petrino). The track record of those coaches is nothing short of abysmal. Let’s face it, this team’s season ended several months ago, when the dog fighting charges first started blowing up in Michael Vick’s face. As for Vick himself, I don’t think he needs to go to jail. He should be placed in a room with three hungry pit bulls for 72 hours. If he survives, great…good for him. Jail is too good for this guy. He’ll always have a place on the Ravens when he gets out. Unless Harrington has a miraculous resurgence, the Falcons could be historically bad.

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
Projected Record: 11-5

Quarterback: B+
Running Backs: A-
Receivers/TE: C
Offensive line: A
Offensive Grade: A-

Tough Month: December- at Philadelphia, Arizona, at Carolina, Baltimore, at Atlanta

I realize the Rams and Cardinals have made up some ground on the Seahawks in the West. But you have to remember, Seattle managed to win this division without Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander for the majority of the season. Even when they played, they were nowhere near 100%. Entering the season, it appears that both are healthy, and the Seahawks are ready to make a run at reclaiming the NFC title. Deion Branch should be better than last year, since he’ll finally have a training camp and off-season with Seattle under his belt. The offensive line remains intact with All-World left tackle Walter Jones leading the charge. A couple of smart additions on the defensive end, like safety Brian Russell, will help add depth to a unit that suffered a lot of injuries on their own. Plus, the Seahawks have a pretty easy schedule. Their toughest road game outside of the NFC West is at Pittsburgh. Their schedule is soft enough to get them 10 wins even if the ball doesn’t bounce their way. I like this team to surprise the league, win this division (which most publications don’t have them doing) and make a playoff run.

2. St. Louis Rams
Projected Record: 9-7

Quarterback: A-
Running Backs: A
Receivers/TE: B+
Offensive line: C
Offensive Grade: B+

Tough Month: November- at New Orleans, at San Francisco, Seattle

After Seattle, this division is really a toss up. I could have made cases for the Rams and Cardinals to both win this division. To me, the 2007 Rams have a lot in common with the 2006 Chiefs. Coming into last season, everyone praised Larry Johnson as one of the top three backs in the league, running behind one of the best lines in the AFC. But no one picked Kansas City to make the playoffs (except me). Kansas City needed help last year, but they made the playoffs on the last week of the season. In 2007, Stephen Jackson is getting a lot of play as one of the top three backs in the league. Again, you don’t see many people picking the Rams to be anything better than 6-10 or 7-9. If a strong running game is so important in the NFL, and the Rams have a great running attack, why wouldn’t you pick the Rams to have a decent record? Especially with Marc Bulger and Torry Holt keeping defenses honest. I guess it’s because the defense is still pretty lousy. But in this division, the Rams should be able to get four wins, and find around five more elsewhere. That should be good enough to be over .500 and sneak into the postseason.

3. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Record: 8-8

Quarterback: B
Running Backs: B
Receivers/TE: A
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: B-

Tough Month: September- at San Francisco, Seattle, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh

The Cardinals need to do one thing to improve enough to make the playoffs. They need to run the football. Edgerrin James can’t have games when he only gets 2.5 yards per carry. As good as the Matt Leinart-Larry Fitzgerald-Anquan Boldin combination could become, they’ll only reach their full potential if there is running game to balance them out. With a lot of new offensive linemen, it doesn’t look good for the Cards ground game in 2007. I do think James will bounce back from the terrible year he had last season. I think he’ll average around 4.0 yards a carry and start to look like the old Edge again. The big problem for the offense will be keeping Matt Leinart upright. I think Leinart is going to be facing David Carr-like pressure this season with his shoddy offensive front. Sacks, and interceptions forced by hurries, will cost the Cardinals several games this year. That, and a very weak defense, will keep Arizona stuck in mediocrity for another season.

4. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Record: 6-10

Quarterback: C+
Running Backs: B+
Receivers/TE: C-
Offensive line: D+
Offensive Grade: C-

Tough Month: September- Arizona, at St. Louis, at Pittsburgh, Seattle

Are the 49ers on the right track? Yes. Are they at the point where they can compete for a division title? No. Alex Smith, while showing improvement last season, still had a quarterback rating of only 74.8. His receivers are Darrell Jackson and Arnaz Battle, two guys would be lucky to be number three receivers on the majority of teams. The offensive line is still suspect. I don’t see Frank Gore rushing for 1,700 yards again (he’s had a number of preseason injury issues). I think there are going to be too many games where the offense just isn’t up to par. And this is certainly not a team that can have its defense carry it. The addition of Patrick Willis was a great draft move. Nate Clements is another great addition, even though they overpaid him considerably and his contract will hurt Frisco in the future. Michael Lewis, a safety that has declined over the past couple of years, was also overpaid for. The 9ers are still starting guys named Marques Douglas, Aubrayo Franklin and Mark Roman. The 49ers were so bad for the last few seasons, it’s going to take more than one good off-season for them to make noise in the West. Think of San Fran as a carbon copy of the Lions. The whole isn’t greater than the sum of the parts. Not yet. This is one darkhorse team to stay away from.

WILD CARD

(6) St. Louis at (3) Seattle
(5) Carolina at (4) Philadelphia

DIVISIONAL

(5) Carolina at (1) New Orleans
(3) Seattle at (2) Chicago

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

New Orleans 30, Seattle 19

SUPER BOWL XLII

New Orleans 33, San Diego 24


Now, time for the picks. In 2006, I was 171-83. Last year, I was 167-84 (that includes a solid 9-2 playoff mark). I actually did better against the experts last season then I did in 2006. Either way, I’m 338-167 (67%). I’m getting two out of every three games right. That may not seem great, but considering some of the clowns at ESPN and CBS are lucky to break .500, I’d say this is the best place for picks. Plus, I was 137-94-9 against the spread. What more do I have to say?

Usually this is the place for my snarky commentary, but since I just reviewed all 32 teams, I’ll save the weekly banter for next Sunday. Just the picks for now. As usual, I do not predict the Redskins games, but come back in a couple of days for a full preview. If you are new to this site, please do not use these picks for gambling purposes, despite the terrific records. The first week is always crazy, so it would be stupid to do so.

THURSDAY

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-6)
Pick: Colts

SUNDAY

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-3)
Pick: Chiefs

Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Steelers

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
Pick: Jaguars, Titans cover

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (PK)
Pick: Rams

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Eagles (though I’ll be rooting for Green Bay)

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Pick: Vikings

New England Patriots (-7.5) at New York Jets
Pick: Patriots

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Pick: Seahawks

Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (-5.5)
Pick: Chargers

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Pick: Lions (picking the Lions on the road…what am I doing???)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)
Pick: Cowboys (either way, someone loses!)

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Pick: Bengals

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Pick: Cardinals