NFL Week 3: Unwanted Surprises

It’s mid-September, and that can only mean one thing: parody craziness all over the NFL. The Texans at 2-0? The Saints at 0-2? The Vikings defense with more touchdowns than their offense? What’s going on around here? All these foolish results have me checking in after a lousy 9-6 weekend. And if you thought that was bad, the 5-9-1 mark against the spread is even worse.
Overall: 19-11 (63%)
Vs. Spread: 16-13-1

Until I figure out what the hell is happening, you shouldn’t use these picks as a basis for wagering of any kind.

SUNDAY

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Let the madness begin here. What am I supposed to do with this game? The Chiefs have looked like the worst team in the AFC for the first two games. Larry Johnson isn’t going anywhere. Damon Huard looks like Damon Huard. The defense allowed the Bears to score, which is embarrassing. Herm Edwards has completely lost control of this team. On the other hand, Minnesota is still starting Tarvaris Jackson (who had four interceptions last week). As I mentioned above, the defense has more touchdowns (three) than the offense (two). One of those touchdowns came on a pretty fortunate run by the real Adrian Peterson in the opener. I guess I’ll take Minnesota based on the quality of the run defense.
Pick: Vikings

Indianapolis Colts (2-0)(-5.5) vs. Houston Texans (2-0)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
One of these teams shouldn’t have 2-0 next to their names…can you guess which one doesn’t belong?
Pick: Colts

San Diego Chargers (1-1)(-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-0)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Look Norv, you have possibly the greatest running back since Barry Sanders. Just run the ball. Don’t allow Phillip Rivers, who couldn’t beat Maryland in college, to have the game in his sidearm-throwing right hand. RUN THE BALL YOU IDIOT. Green Bay is one of four fluky 2-0 teams that are going to be exposed this weekend.
Pick: Chargers

Detroit Lions (2-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
How bad was that Monday Night broadcast? ESPN was up to their old tricks. All they wanted to do was focus on Donovan “black quarterbacks have it so tough, it’s certainly not my fault I’m throwing five yards behind my receiver” McNabb all night. Nevermind the fact that a Redskins team, that no one gave any chance to win, dominated the Eagles for most of the game. Nevermind the fact that it was clear to anyone with any knowledge of the game that Brian Westbrook is the Eagles best player. No let’s talk about McNabb and the genius coach with a large weight problem. That makes sense.

I believe it was early in the 2nd quarter when Sean Taylor absolutely blew up one of the Eagles receivers (who was hung out by a terrible throw from McNabb). Not only did we not see any replays of the hit from Taylor, but the broadcasters didn’t even mention it had happened. No, the focus was on Andy Reid and his drug-dealing sons. Which Mike Tirico and Ron Jaworski continued to talk about for roughly 10 minutes. As per ESPN policy when dealing with the Eagles, they made excuses for Reid. “Just because his sons messed up doesn’t make him a bad father.” “It could happen to any family, it could happen to any father.” Blah blah blah blah blah. It may not be entirely Reid’s fault, but I’m sure he had a lot to do with it. Maybe if he spent less time trying to ice kickers before a 28-yard first half field goal attempt, and spent more time at home taking care of business, his sons wouldn’t be heinous criminals.

Then came the popular excuses for Donovan McNabb. “It’s not his fault the offense isn’t moving, his receivers are so lousy.” No, it’s never the quarterback’s fault the offense is lousy. Why would it be? It’s not like quarterback is an important position.

Maybe, just maybe, McNabb isn’t that great of a quarterback. I’ve only been saying this for years, but no one will listen. Don’t tell me his receivers stink. Don’t tell me it’s the offense. And don’t tell me it’s the black quarterback thing (Really, was this the best time for McNabb to play the race card? Reeks of someone who knows his job is in jeopardy and he’s grasping at straws.). As of right now, McNabb is the worst starting quarterback in the NFC East. Just go back and watch all the horrible throws he made in this game. He was overthrowing, underthrowing, and throwing behind his receivers all night long. Of the 26 incompletions, the overwhelming majority were McNabb’s fault and his fault alone. Not his offensive line. Not his receivers. Not the fact he’s a black athlete. He didn’t have a good game because, right now, he isn’t a very good quarterback. Plain and simple.

As for Detroit…how dumb can your trainers be to allow a player, who suffered an obvious concussion, back in a game? That is completely reckless and irresponsible. Jon Kitna should not be playing this week either. I don’t think it will matter, because the Lions are about to join Green Bay and Houston in the “L” column.
Pick: Eagles

Buffalo Bills (0-2) vs. New England Patriots (2-0)(-16)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Wow, a 16-point spread. I don’t care who is playing who. That’s way too big of a spread for any NFL game. And again, let me reiterate: the Patriots will not finish undefeated. C’mon people. It’s two weeks into the season. Teams will adjust, the Patriots will be tripped up somewhere. Probably multiple somewheres. I said 13 wins would be remarkable. I expected them win 11 games, and I’m sticking with it.
Pick: Patriots, Bills cover

Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. New York Jets (0-2)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Well, at least one team in the AFC East won’t be a full three games behind the Patriots following this week. The Dolphins have actually played two pretty good games. They took the Skins to the wire and led the Cowboys late in the third.
Pick: Dolphins

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Either the 49ers are better than people think or Vegas is on to something. I’m with Vegas on this line. The 49ers are not that good. Just a team that has escaped with two wins in two weeks (However, they were two division wins, and one was on the road. Not a bad two games to escape with). I’m sorry, two wins by four points against two bad teams isn’t impressive. The Steelers haven’t played better competition than the 49ers, but they have destroyed both teams. And they’re probably going to destroy San Francisco.
Pick: Steelers

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-1)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
It’s great to see that the Big Ego is back in Baltimore. Brian Billick was completely responsible for the Ravens loss to Cincinnati. The pass on 3rd and 1, inside Baltimore territory, with the Ravens leading by one late in the fourth quarter, was a terrible play call. The pass was intercepted and the Bengals quickly scored a touchdown. The five pass plays inside the redzone late in the game were even worse. Last week, the Ravens watched a 20-3 lead shrink to 20-13 with the Jets in possession of the ball inside the Baltimore 20. Thanks to more bad play-calling, the Ravens were a couple of dropped passes from having to go into overtime. Again, the Ravens schedule will help them get four or five wins before their bye week. Then the other shoe drops. For now, the Ravens will play a bunch of close games they’ll probably win. Their offense and coaching staff -can’t be expected to cover large spreads like this one.
Pick: Ravens, Cardinals cover

St. Louis Rams (0-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
I’m just going to keep picking the Rams until they win. With the way they’ve played so far, it’s more likely that I’m going to pick up an additional 14 losses in my overall record.
Pick: Rams

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) vs. Denver Broncos (2-0)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Like San Diego, it’s become clear that Jacksonville isn’t going to play to their strength. With Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew on the roster, why does Jack Del Rio continue to insist in putting the game in the hands of David Garrard (and Byron Leftwich before him)? After barely escaping past Atlanta at home, I don’t have much hope for the Jags in Denver. Then again, they’ve won a bunch of these tough road games in past seasons. Maybe a road trip will get them back to basics.
Pick: Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-1)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
One of these teams gets back on track and goes 2-1. The other falls into a 1-2 hole and will have a lot of ground to cover in the coming weeks.
Pick: Seahawks

Cleveland Browns (1-1) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-2)(-3)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
Could the Browns actually go 2-1? No, I just don’t see it happening. The Raiders appear to be half decent. I have a feeling that the Browns aren’t going to be able to put up half-a-hundred on this defense.
Pick: Raiders

Carolina Panthers (1-1)(-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
4:15 p.m. Georgia Dome
The Falcons are terrible. I don’t care who they’re playing, or what the spread is. You shouldn’t pick them the entire season. I know I won’t be.
Pick: Panthers

Dallas Cowboys (2-0) vs. Chicago Bears (1-1)(-4)
8:15 p.m. Soldier Field
Just when you think Rex Grossman is about ready to take a permanent seat on the bench, he has a great game in front of a national audience and forces Lovie Smith to keep him in the lineup. I would feel bad for Bears fans except for the fact that their team plays in the NFC North and gets a gift-wrapped playoff birth every season.
Pick: Bears, Cowboys cover

MONDAY

Tennessee Titans (1-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-2)(-4.5)
8:30 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Last chance to dance for the Saints. 0-3 records almost always mean no playoffs. So I’ll give them one more opportunity to prove that they are Super Bowl worthy.
Pick: Saints