NFL Week 13

Overall: 108-57 (65%)
Vs. Spread: 99-59-7

THURSDAY
Cowboys, Packers cover (+7.5)

SUNDAY
Rams (-3.5) over Falcons
Vikings (-3.5) over Lions
Titans (-3.5) over Texans
Jaguars (+7) over Colts
Dolphins (-1) over the Jets (Yes, this is the week)
Chargers (-5.5) over Chiefs
Seahawks (+3) over Eagles
Panthers (-2) over 49ers
Saints (-3) over Buccaneers
Cardinals (-1) over Browns
Broncos (-3) over Raiders
Bears (+2) over Giants
Steelers (-7) over Bengals

MONDAY
Patriots (-20) over Ravens (the Ravens can't cover any spread)

I'll have more on #21, where the Redskins go from here and if it makes sense, a game preview for the Skins-Bills in a day or two.

Maryland Basketball: No Challenge

Illinois Fighting Illini (4-1) at
Maryland Terrapins (4-2)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD
ACC/Big Ten Challenge

As I work on more important subjects for this website, we’ll keep the Maryland roundup short and sweet. As of now, I’ve seen no proof that Maryland can beat any team from a major conference. They turn the ball over way too much and their outside shooting is atrocious. Those two elements together are usually a losing combination in this day and age of college basketball.

Illinois is very similar to Maryland. The Illini saw major recruits (Eric Gordon, Derrick Rose) leave at the last moment and are now stuck with a decent, but not special team. Bruce Weber, once hailed as a mastermind after leading a bunch of players that weren’t his to the National Championship game, has shown his ability to almost single-handedly ruin a program with his inability to lock up major local talent. With Chicago an hour away, that’s completely unacceptable (much like Maryland allowing both Baltimore and Washington talent to go elsewhere).

So now in the ACC beats down Big Ten Challenge, Maryland will have a chance to land another blow for the best college basketball conference in the country. In fact, I believe a Maryland win would clinch the Challenge for the ACC, leaving the conference record spotless since this foolish event started. I like the idea of having conference play conference, but could we please do it with the Big East, SEC, Big XII or Pac-10. Not a big fan of playing a football conference.

On that note, I don’t see Maryland winning, even at home, because of what I said before. Until the Terps show me that they can win against a decent team, there’s no reason to think or predict that they can.

Illinois 72
Maryland 67

The Third Annual Tryptophan Edition

Washington Redskins (5-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
As I’ve done the past couple of years, I take a brief vacation for the Thanksgiving holiday. So everything for this week will be in one short and sweet little summary.

The Redskins played remarkably well considering how many players they were missing. A loss is a loss, but with six games remaining, and the final playoff spot only one game away with the collapsing Detroit Lions being the one’s holding it down, I feel pretty confident that the Skins can get it.

Obviously not covering Terrell Owens was a mistake. This is where Sean Taylor was missed. If Taylor is playing, he pops Owens in the mouth early in the game and we don’t hear from T.O. the rest of the way. Pierson Prioleau, Reed Doughty and Leigh Torrance don’t have the same drawing power as Taylor. With Taylor in, the Redskins win that game. Oh well, we’ll see in December if he’s the difference maker.

Now it’s the Redskins fourth trip to Tampa in three years. They’ve lost both regular season games but won the wild-card playoff game. Two years ago it was the questionable Mike Alstott two-point conversion. Last year it was Jason Campbell’s first NFL start. The Redskins have been close to wins twice, but weren’t able to get it done for one reason or another (I’m glad they got that problem fixed for this season…eesh).

Jeff Garcia is a good quarterback, despite being 48. He’s still plowing along and making plays without a running game and with Joey Galloway being his number one receiver. It may be wise to cover Galloway this weekend. The T.O. defense didn’t work so well.

Even with Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks still playing effectively, this isn’t your older brothers Tampa defense. It is vulnerable, especially deep, and if the Redskins mix some running in with the passing they did last week, they should be fine. It is a must win game however. The first real must win game of the season. I don’t see the Redskins reeling off five straight victories like they did in 2005. So the Skins can’t afford to drop below .500. If they do, it’s going to be a slightly depressing December.

As for the rest of the NFL, I went 11-4 last week. That brings the record up a little more:
Overall: 98-52 (65%)
Vs. Spread: 88-55-7

As for the picks:
THURSDAY
Lions (+3.5)
Cowboys (-14)
Colts (-11.5)
I’ve learned never to pick against either Detroit or Dallas on Thanksgiving. No team likes to play a short week on the road.
SUNDAY
Bears (-2)
Titans (PK)
Jaguars, Bills Cover (+8)
Chiefs (-5.5)
Browns (-4)
Seahawks (-3)
Giants, Vikings cover (+8)
Saints (-2)
Cardinals, 49ers cover (+10.5)
Chargers (-9)
Patriots, Eagles cover (+23)
MONDAY
Steelers, Dolphins cover (+16)
By far the largest line I’ve ever seen with the Eagles plus 23. I think that will go down a little bit during the week, but there’s nothing I can do about.





Maryland Terrapins (3-1) vs.
Missouri Tigers (3-1)
Spirit Center - Kansas City, MO
CBE Basketball Classic

Now for Maryland basketball. Real quick here. I wasn’t surprised about the multitude of turnovers or the horrific shooting night from three. I wasn’t surprised that Maryland lost to a very, very good team. I was surprised that despite all their mistakes, and with both of their forwards fouling out, that the Terps were only a couple of possessions out of the game with a couple of minutes to remaining. UCLA had a rough shooting night themselves, but the Terps hung tough and turned what should have been a blow out loss into a competitive game. By the way, I’m now a huge Josh Shipp fan, but I can’t stand Kevin Lowe. He got every call on both ends of the floor. Guys, he’s a freshman, not a senior. He shouldn’t be getting the calls yet. He shouldn’t be allowed to grab and push off for every rebound.

I would really hope the Terps win this consolation game against Missouri. If nothing else, it will help the RPI like the game against UCLA did. Mike Anderson has done a great job of cleaning up former Dookie Quinn Snyder’s mess at Mizzou. He’s turned the Tigers around very quickly and they’re probably a team that will make the NCAA’s this season. DeMarre Carroll, a transfer from Vanderbilt, is their stud big man. He’s averaging over 20 a game. Stefhon Hannah and Keon Lawrence form a solid backcourt that do two things well. One, how to shoot the three. Two, get the ball inside to Carroll.

The Tigers played a fast-paced game last night against Michigan State and lost by three. It’s going to be tough for them to turn it around in less than 24 hours and play a Maryland team that didn’t run all that much against UCLA. I think we’ll see a lot of turnovers from Mizzou (and probably Maryland as well) and the Terps will win this one only because the Tigers are going to be tired.

Maryland 77
Missouri 74

That’s it for me, have a great Thanksgiving. Talk next week.

Maryland Basketball: An Early Season Final Exam

Maryland Terrapins (3-0) vs.
#2/2 UCLA Bruins (3-0)
Spirit Center - Kansas City, MO
CBE Classic Semifinals

Well, you can say one thing about the Maryland Terrapins so far. They’re 3-0. Other than that, they’ve been a complete disappointment three games into the season. I really thought this team could finish 2nd in the ACC. It appears that I may have way off in that prediction.

For those of you who missed it, or for those of you not aware that college basketball season had begun, the Terps opened their season with a comfortable 29-point win against North Florida. Some of you haven’t heard of North Florida. That’s ok. They aren’t the Gators or Bulls or even the Golden Knights. They are the Fightin’ Ospreys.

That’s kind of what everyone expected, even without two starters because of some bogus NCAA rule that basically says you can’t play pickup games in the offseason. But the Terps followed up their opening win with a six-point win against Hampton (which Hampton led by one with two minutes to go) and a two-point miraculous escape – IN OVERTIME – against Northeastern. I could understand the struggles against Hampton. The Terps are a young team, they were bound to have games like that. They dominated the first 30 minutes, had a real bad six to seven minute span, then woke up in time to win the game. Plus, Hampton is going win their conference. The difference between the small conference champions and teams that get at large bids from larger conferences is getting smaller and smaller every single season.

The near loss to Northeastern was a rude wake up call. The Huskies (I think that’s what they’re called) are a middle of the pack CAA team that has no history of upsets whatsoever. They had one proven scorer, an unproven coach and a height disadvantage at every position. And considering that the game was only three days after the Terps were nearly upset by Hampton, it was shocking that the Terps didn’t come out and blow Northeastern back to Boston. The Huskies dominated the second half, and if it wasn’t for the huge foul discrepancy that you usually see in these early season “automatic win” games, the Terps would have lost by a couple of baskets.

So what was the problem? James Gist and Boom Osby looked good. Eric Hayes looked good. The multitude of freshmen looked good considering it was their first action of their careers. I can only point the finger of blame at Greivis Vasquez.

Oh no, not again…didn’t you do that all last season? I thought you were done blaming General Greivis.

Yeah, I thought I was too. And please stop with this General Greivis crap. That's such a stupid nickname. Up until early February, I was complete miffed as to why Gary Williams continued to give serious minutes to Vasquez as the half-starting/half-backup point guard. Every time he got in the game, he’d throw the ball away. It was so bad in an early ACC game against Georgia Tech, I wrote this the next week:

“Hopefully, over the past seven days, Gary has taken a look at the film and realized that Greivis Vasquez should not be starting over or getting more minutes than Eric Hayes. After attending the Georgia Tech game in person, I am even more convinced of that than ever. Here’s the more impressive thing. The student body shared the same general consensus. I would have bet before the game that the student body, as stupid as they’ve become over past couple of years since my graduation, would have loved the flashier Vasquez over the calm and collected Hayes. But they don’t. When Vasquez was announced in the starting lineups, several fans started a “We want Hayes” chant. At the beginning of the second half, Vasquez made two terrible plays that resulted in turnovers. Again, all the fans around me wanted to see him benched and started asking for Hayes again. When Vasquez turned it over for a third time, Gary immediately (even before Georgia Tech completed their fast break layup) yanked Hayes off the bench and Vasquez out of the game. The crowd roared.”

After that game, Gary used Vasquez as the sixth man off the bench for awhile, before using him as the backup to Mike Jones and D.J. Strawberry at both the two and three position. It was there that Vasquez tore up teams in February and March. No longer was he taking the ball down court, he was getting himself open for his own shots. And he carried the team in a couple of games. On top of all that, Eric Hayes was playing brilliantly at point, and it appeared that every thing was falling into place for the upcoming season. The Vasquez experiment at point guard, for all intents and purposes, was over. Or so we thought.

For whatever reason, Gary has decided to let Greivis Vasquez run point while Hayes is the starting two guard. I have no idea why. Against Hampton, the six minute stretch when Hampton staged a comeback was fueled by three Vasquez turnovers. All three were on horrible passes. Three days later, when Northeastern started the second half on a solid run, it was because of a couple of more bad passes from Vasquez. I don’t get it. Hayes is a natural point guard and Vasquez is someone who should fit well at shooting guard. It shouldn’t even be up for debate. It is so obvious that Vasquez and Hayes need to be switched. That’s how I, and I’m sure every Terps fan, thought it would be coming into the season. Again, I have no idea why that has changed.

In any rate, Maryland better shake the cobwebs out tonight. The Terps face UCLA in the semifinals of whatever corporate pre-season tournament they are in. UCLA comes into the game ranked 2nd in the nation, but in my opinion, the Bruins are the best team in the country and are my favorites to win it all. The Terps get a break tonight since Bruins All-American guard Darren Collison is out. He’s still bothered by a preseason ankle injury, and will probably come back in a couple of weeks.

The Bruins don’t seem to have missed him much. Josh Shipp, the other stellar UCLA guard, has stepped up his game. Shipp and Collison will form the best backcourt in the country when Collison returns. Luc-Richard Mbah-a-Moute is only a junior, even though it seems like he’s been at UCLA for the past 5 years. He’s a solid inside player who doesn’t get pushed around. And, as if the Bruins needed more help, they added Kevin Love at power forward. He is one of the top five freshmen in the country. Love is averaging a double-double so far this season (although UCLA really hasn’t played anyone yet).

The Bruins are deep, talented and best of all, they love playing defense. Ben Howland has taken the defensive principles from his days at Pittsburgh and successfully implemented them in a conference that generally isn’t interested in playing 40 minutes of suffocating D. This is a very, very good Bruins team, with or without Collison.

The Terps cannot afford to have their fourth straight 20-plus turnover game. That has to stop, and it has to stop right now. Maryland will only win this game if they keep their turnovers down (somewhere in the 10-14 range) and keep Love and Mbah-a-Moute from getting second chance points. James Gist will have to step up with another 27-point effort. And Vasquez will have to hit more than free throws. Hopefully we’ll see more of Hayes at point, but I doubt it. Gary is too stubborn. It will be a good early season test for Maryland. A loss won’t hurt them at all, it will actually help their RPI. I don’t see the Terps as being ready to play a team of UCLA’s caliber quite yet.

UCLA 79
Maryland 67

Redskins at Cowboys: The Morning Star

Washington Redskins (5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
Following an impressive touchdown drive that put the Redskins up 22-13 in the early stages of the fourth quarter, there was a feeling in the press box that even the Redskins couldn’t blow this kind of lead. Sure, the Redskins had already choked away two games, but they had lost most or all of their leads in the third quarters of those games. A solid scoring drive to make it a two score game in the fourth against the hapless Eagles should have been enough. When the press box, containing some of the most cynical people on this planet, feel encouraged by a nine-point lead, then it’s usually safe to assume the Redskins would win.

Twelve minutes and twenty points later, the Redskins were on the wrong end of another come-from-ahead loss. For the second time this season, it was against a division opponent at home. That puts three of four losses this season in the choke column. In addition to those three losses, the Skins surrendered a huge lead to Arizona in a two-point win and allowed the pathetic Jets to drive down the field for the game-tying field goal in an eventual overtime victory. So it’s not like any of this is new.

What the Redskins did do for the first time this season is lose a game they couldn’t afford to lose. Going into their game in Green Bay, the Redskins had to beat Detroit to go 3-1 and avoid heading into a road game with a chance to fall under .500. Same thing with the win against Arizona before their game with New England. And you had the feeling going into this weekend’s game that the Redskins would have to beat both the Jets and Eagles. Since they didn’t, the Redskins almost face their first real must win of the season. I say almost because both the Giants and Lions lost last Sunday, and since they play each other this week, one of them will lose again. Even if the Redskins lose this weekend, they’ll still be no worse than one game out of the playoffs. So it’s not quite dire straights on Sunday. But the Redskins should be 6-3 heading into this game.

There isn’t much to say regarding the loss to Philly. The same problems the Redskins have had all season closing games came back and bit them in the butt again. Failure to score touchdowns instead of field goals. Failure to make field goals instead of coming away with no points. Failure to get first downs instead of going three and out. Failure to stick to the defensive game plan that had worked so well in the first half of the game. Failure to hold on to the football. Failure to capitalize on the mistakes (and the Eagles made plenty of them) of the opponents. Failures in clock management. They were all there. And on top of the problems on the field, the injury toll continues to mount.

The Redskins don’t have a lot of injuries. It just seems all their injuries are at the same position. So the Redskins are going to have third and fourth stringers at some positions for the foreseeable future. The offensive line was decimated early in the year. In the last couple of weeks it’s been the secondary and the receiving corps. Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd (who didn’t do much when healthy) and James Thrash will all be sidelined this weekend. Antwaan Randle El is still suffering from a variety of injuries. The receivers this weekend will be a banged up Randle El, followed by Keenan McCardell, Reche Caldwell and Jimmy Farris. Farris signed with the team earlier this week. Not exactly the most fearsome group in the world. And with all the injuries on the offensive line, Dallas-killer Chris Cooley has been forced to be more of a blocker this season, which takes away another threat. All this is happening when the Redskins were finally starting to open up the playbook the last couple of weeks.

The worst injury is to safety Sean Taylor. Taylor has been, by far, the best safety in the NFL this season. He is finally living up to the potential that he came into the league with. He has been so versatile for the Redskins, lining up near the line of scrimmage on one play then lining up 20 yards downfield on the next. Along with London Fletcher, Taylor has been the driving force of the Redskins resurgence. Now it appears Taylor will miss at least two games, probably more.

On top of the escalating problems for the Redskins this week is their opponent. The Redskins must travel to Irving to face a team that is red hot, playing with a purpose, and generally looks unstoppable. As the greatest rivalry in sports renews, the Redskins are going to be against a wall in Dallas and are going to be facing a very good team. And you know how much it pains me to write that about that team with the stupid little star on its helmet.

As is my policy, I don’t like writing about what ESPN and other networks hype up beyond belief. So I’m going to glance over the Cowboys offense. Tony Romo is not a top tier quarterback. He makes just as many mistakes as quarterbacks not named Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. They’re just conveniently overlooked. Marion Barber and Jason Witten are good players. The offensive line is good, but not great. Terrell Owens is aging but is helped out tremendously by the amount of weapons the Cowboys have.

It’s the Cowboys defense that really is impressive. Roy Williams is vastly overrated (in fact, he may be one of the worst starters on the team), but the rest of the unit is underrated. If underrating Dallas players is possible anymore for the amount of coverage the team receives. Guys like Bradie James and DeMarcus Ware are having monster years and are hard to get by or around. Dallas blitzes like crazy, and with very few options available to Jason Campbell, it could be tough to take advantage of their aggressive nature.

The loss of Taylor is huge in this game. The Cowboys love to run one of their receivers deep and have either Witten or Owens come over the middle on slant patterns. With Taylor in the game, that option would pretty much be taken away. Taylor has knocked the crap out of Owens in previous match-ups and it is a known secret around the league that Owens is very, very afraid of going over the middle when facing Taylor. He has had some of the worst games of his career against Taylor and the Skins. With Pierson Prioleau taking over the free safety position, I’m not sure Dallas will get away from their bread and butter. It’s not really Owens that worries me, it’s actually Witten that’s more of a problem. He’s a slightly faster, slightly weaker version of Cooley. He would create issues even with Taylor in the game. Without Taylor, who covers him? Certainly not a linebacker, which is what I’m sure Gregg Williams will try to do.

For the Redskins offensively, it’s going to be a struggle. The running game has finally gotten on track the last couple of weeks. Clinton Portis is going to have to have another 100-yard game for the Redskins to put enough points on the board. Running and play-action are going to be the only way the Skins move the ball. I would love to see some more of the no-huddle the Redskins debuted last week to some degree of success. It appears the Skins will allow Campbell to run it a few times this week.

I just don’t see the Redskins putting up enough points, and move the ball with enough consistency to keep Dallas behind on the scoreboard and off the field. Even if the Redskins grab a lead, there is no guarantee that they’ll be able to hold it. In fact, it’s almost a guarantee that they won’t. A win would be huge. It would be the biggest of Joe Gibbs’ return. It would put the Redskins right back in the middle of everything. The division, the wild-card, everything is put back on the table for the Redskins. A loss drops the Redskins at .500, and will put them in their first must-win game of the season next weekend.

NFL Week 11: Going South

Another solid 9-4 this past week means I’ve gone 36-15 over the past four weeks (despite being 6-7 during one of them). Let the good times roll again:
Overall: 87-48 (64%)
Vs. Spread: 77-51-7

Even though I’m on pace for my worst season in three years, the numbers still look good. Please don’t use this page for gambling purposes anyway.

SUNDAY

San Diego Chargers (5-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
As predictable as the Jaguars road win against a good Titans team was, a home loss to the average Chargers is just as obvious.
Pick: Chargers

Cleveland Browns (5-4)(-2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Also as predictable was the Ravens’ 2007 collapse. Although everyone else, from Baltimore to Bristol and beyond seems surprised by the Criminals lack of offense and alarming lack of wins (given how easy their schedule has been so far and how difficult it will be the rest of the season). That’s why I got so many nasty responses from Ravens fans when I wrote this in early September:

“Steve McNair had a very comparable 2006 to Mark Brunell’s 2005. Both started strong, played like smart veterans, and won games. But down the stretch, both faltered. And both played horribly in their respective post-seasons. The aging process finally caught up to Brunell by December 2005, just like it got McNair in December 2006. So why is Baltimore predicted to make a Super Bowl run in 2007? Brunell finished last season on the bench and his team finished with a 5-11 record. McNair may have more in the tank than Brunell did, but he doesn’t have that much more. Why am I to believe that Baltimore’s 2007 campaign will be any different than Washington’s 2006?”

Even if the Ravens win here (and the fact that if the Ravens do win it would be an upset shows you how far they’ve fallen), they’re still screwed. There’s no way they beat New England, Indianapolis and San Diego. That’s eight losses right there. Guess I was right. Then again, I also said St. Louis would make the playoffs this season.
Pick: Browns

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-2)(-14.5)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
As much as I like Indianapolis, I don’t think they have enough healthy NFL-caliber players to beat any team by 14 points right now. Ok, maybe they’d beat San Francisco by that many, but that’s about it.
Pick: Colts, Chiefs cover

Oakland Raiders (2-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-6)(-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Again, I’m going to give Oakland credit for fighting each and every week. They just don’t have the horses to win games. The Raiders are one of the few teams that haven’t laid down and rolled over once this season. That’s more than you can say for a bunch of teams that have winning records.
Pick: Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4)(-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
In a division full of mediocrity, the Buccaneers lead the Saints and Panthers by a game and the Falcons by two. Let’s really take a look at how bad the NFC South is. The Saints started 0-4, got blown out by the winless Rams AT HOME, and are still only one game back. The Panthers are starting the Crypt Keeper at quarterback and have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The Falcons, with their starting quarterback looking at a year of jail-time, have resorted to the deadly combination of Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich. Their best win came against Carolina last week. And if they won this game, they’d somehow be within one game of first. Which brings me to Tampa. The Bucs may be the worst of the group. Despite being relatively healthy (with the exception of the running back position), they haven’t pulled away from the rest of these pathetic teams. Someone has to win this division, and I don’t think it will be either of these two.
Pick: Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers (4-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-1)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Nope, the eventual winner of the NFC South isn’t here either. Keep looking.
Pick: Packers

New Orleans Saints (4-5) vs. Houston Texans (4-5)(PK)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Here they are. I still think the Saints come out on top of this division. I’m not sure what their loss to the Rams was all about. Chalk it up to the Rams coming off a bye week. By the way, Texans’ fans have already had to see Vince Young twice. Now they have to see Reggie Bush drop by. Is there any chance of Charley Casserly showing up to this game? That Mario Williams pick looks worse and worse every day.
Pick: Saints

New York Giants (6-3) vs. Detroit Lions (6-3)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
As much as I would love to see Detroit win this game, the Lions just aren’t ready to beat good teams. You don’t reverse 10 years of losing in one season. If the Lions can finish at 8-8, or even 9-7, that’s got to be considered a remarkable accomplishment.
Pick: Giants

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Even though the Cardinals 1-4 road record indicates they won’t win this game, I think it’s about time to stop picking the Bengals to win every week.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (0-9) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
John Beck now steps under center for the Dolphins. I give him until the end of the season before the next retread quarterback replaces him. The Eagles somehow get back to .500 after this one. Basically, if you are a struggling NFC team, just visit Washington. They’ll get you back on track with a come-from-ahead loss.
Pick: Eagles, Dolphins cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)(-10) vs. New York Jets (1-8)
4:05 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Jets are the anti-Raiders. They have quit on their horrible coach in almost every game this season. They flat out stink.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis Rams (1-8)(-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-7)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
As wrong as I was about the Rams – and I was way, way off on them – I’m so glad I was right on how bad the 49ers were going to be. I said their quarterback situation was bad. Their offensive line hadn’t improved. Their defense, with the exception of the secondary, wasn’t any better than it had been. I knew it was only a matter of time before Frank Gore started becoming injury prone. Now the 49ers appear to be headed for another massive overhaul. That will be tough because they wasted so much money in a tight end who is always hurt and a cornerback who isn’t making any difference. This team will be terrible for at least the next three or four years. To see how far they’ve fallen, they’re underdogs, at home, to a team that just won its first game of the season last week.
Pick: Rams

Chicago Bears (4-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-4)(-5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Intriguing game here, if only because it features two teams that can’t get their acts together. I liked the Bears in the upset until I heard Rex Grossman was back under center. That changed everything. Don’t worry Bears fans, Donovan McNabb will be in Chicago next season.
Pick: Seahawks

New England Patriots (9-0)(-16) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-4)
8:15 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
It was so nice this past week not having to listen to all this Patriots hype mumbo jumbo. Couldn’t they just have bye weeks until the playoffs?
Pick: Patriots

MONDAY

Tennessee Titans (6-3) vs. Denver Broncos (4-5)(-2)
8:30 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Jay Cutler is starting to show some of the promise that I said he would back when the Broncos selected him. Now he gets a chance to take out his fellow 2006 quarterback draft pick Vince Young. Or not.
Pick: Titans

The rivalry renews later this week. Until then, same bat time, same bat channel. And breathe if you hate Dallas.

2007-08 NCAA Basketball Preview

College basketball time! Here is a conference-by-conference prediction breakdown, with some extra analysis for the ACC. All of this is followed by my Top 25. This will be the last time you see my Top 25 until January, as anything before conference play starts is kind of pointless. Analysis of Maryland basketball should come next week as the Terps get ready to play UCLA. The games against small teams will not have any previews. Sorry, too busy for that. Any team I predict making the tournament from the Big Six conferences is denoted with a *.

ACC
North Carolina* - Once again the best team in the ACC, and it’s not even close. When Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson are your one-two punch, you’re in very good shape. This is the only complete team in the conference

Maryland* - Call me a homer if you want, and there’s probably a little bias here. But look at the rest of the ACC. Other than Carolina, it’s an absolute crapshoot. I like the backcourt of Eric Hayes and Greivis Vasquez teamed with the two-headed monster inside of James Gist and Boom Osby. Depth, with a lot of freshman, will be a big issue. But the starting five is second only to UNC.

Duke* - Having the Devils this high isn’t an indication on how good Duke will be this season, it’s an indication of how down the conference is. For the Blow Devils, there are a lot of solid role players on the floor, but no stars. And certainly no leaders. I keep hearing about Kyle Singler, but as of now, he’s done absolutely nothing at the college level. I’ll believe his hype when I see it.

Clemson* - With K.C. Rivers and James Mays being two of the four returning starters, Clemson will have more experience than anyone in the conference. The only problem is the loss of point guard Vernon Hamilton. The Tigers will start a true freshman at point, something that’s never a good idea in the ACC. Plus, Oliver Purnell is one of the worst coaches in the league.

Virginia* - With Sean Singletary returning, there is enough talent behind him to get another NCAA bid. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough for another 11-win season in the ACC.

NC State – Yes, this team is improving. But to pick this squad 2nd or 3rd in the ACC, which I’ve seen a lot of publications doing, is absurd. The Wolfpack went 5-11 in the conference last season. Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley are a solid tandem inside, but the backcourt without Engin Atsur is very unproven. Too much youth on this team. Give them another year.

Georgia Tech – Would have put the Jackets above NC State, but then I heard about their loss to UNC-Greensboro. That’s not the good UNC.

Boston College – The Eagles were able to overcome the loss of Craig Smith last season because of the stellar play of Jared Dudley. So how will the Eagles overcome the loss of Dudley this season?

Miami – The Canes won’t be as bad as most people think. They won’t be much better either. So if most experts have them penciled in at 11th or 12th, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and put them at 9th.

Virginia Tech – This will be down year for Seth Greenberg after losing his entire backcourt. Consistent scoring will be a serious problem for the Hokies. A very talented class comes in next season, but it won’t do Tech much good in 2008.

Wake Forest – It was already going to be a rough year for the Deacons before Skip Prosser passed away. Now, besides Ishmael Smith, there isn’t much reason for hope. The conference’s youngest team being led by a first-year coach isn’t the formula for ACC success.

Florida State – Al Thornton was on this team for four years and they couldn’t make the NCAA tournament. There is no way Leonard Hamilton leads this team to the Big Dance without Thornton.

Big East
Louisville*
Marquette*
Georgetown*
Villanova*
Syracuse*
Connecticut*
Notre Dame*
Pittsburgh
Providence
Seton Hall
West Virginia
Cincinnati
DePaul
Rutgers
St. John’s
South Florida
No one should assume this conference will automatically be Georgetown’s. Roy Hibbert is not a player that can carry an entire team for weeks at a time. Louisville is the most complete and experienced team in the conference, and they have the best coach as well. Marquette is a team that intrigues me with the guard play. Syracuse and UConn should be much improved. Pittsburgh is due for a step back with the loss of Aaron Gray. Providence and Seton Hall return the majority of their teams and could sneak in the NCAA’s. WVU needs another year with Bob Huggins before their ready to compete.

Big 10
Indiana*
Michigan State*
Ohio State*
Illinois*
Purdue*
Wisconsin
Michigan
Penn State
Minnesota
Iowa
Northwestern
With a good mixture of veterans and youth, size and speed, Indiana should take this conference. Michigan State is a good team, but they have no physical big man that really stands out. Ohio State will slip without the Oden/Conley/Cook combination…but not as far as most think. Illinois will be better than last year. Welcome Purdue to national contention, as they should make it back-to-back NCAA trips. Wisconsin and Iowa are on the way down. I’m not so sure Wisconsin makes the tournament this year. Penn State and Minnesota are on the up and up. The Big 10, by the way, is the worst of the six power conferences this season.

Big 12
North
Kansas (1)*
Kansas State (2)*
Missouri (5)*
Iowa State (10)
Colorado (11)
Nebraska (12)

South
Texas A&M (3)*
Texas (4)*
Texas Tech (6)
Oklahoma State (7)
Oklahoma (8)
Baylor (9)
Kansas will again be the cream of the crop. KSU would have been much better if Huggins had stayed, but they are still a Top 20 team. Despite the losses of Acie Law and Kevin Durant, A&M and Texas are still strong in the Southern Division. The Aggies should benefit from the addition of DeAndre Jordon, who jones Joseph Jones in one of the best frontcourts in the country. After years of toiling away with Quinn Snyder, Missouri is back under Mike Anderson. Baylor could be a legitimate sleeper this season, with all of their players returning.

Pac-10
UCLA*
Washington State*
Oregon*
Arizona*
Southern California*
Stanford*
Washington
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
For 2007-08, the best football and basketball conference are one in the same. The Pac-10 contains at least three legitimate national contenders. UCLA should be the favorite to win the title this season. Washington State is the best defensive team in the country. Oregon, despite the loss of Aaron Brooks, may be the deepest team in the Pac-10. Arizona will be a Top 25 team this year, even without Lute Olsen for a lengthened period of time. O.J. Mayo and USC will be disappointments, but still make the tournament easily. Stanford and Washington are middle of the pack teams in the Pac-10, but would be top three in any other conference. At least one, if not both should get tournament bids.

SEC
East
Tennessee* (1)
Vanderbilt* (3)
Kentucky* (4)
Florida* (6)
South Carolina (10)
Georgia (11)

West
Arkansas* (2)
Mississippi State* (5)
Auburn (7)
Alabama (8)
LSU (9)
Ole Miss (12)
Tennessee returns too much talent to not win this weakened conference. Arkansas should be able to cruise in the West with a bunch of other mediocre teams. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt is expected to fall. But they return everyone else and bring in Andrew Ogilvy, who is supposed to be the next Andrew Bogut. Even with Billy Gillispie at the helm, Kentucky just doesn’t have the talent to catch up to Volunteers. No one in the country lost more than Florida. They will struggle big time. But, as long as they go 8-8 in conference, there's no way that the NCAA will allow them to miss the tournament. Mississippi State should be good enough to get 9 or 10 wins in conference and earn a NCAA bid. The rest of the conference is average at best. There are some really lousy teams (S.C., Georgia, Ole Miss) that would struggle in mid-major conferences.

Mid-Majors
Atlantic 10: Xavier, St. Joseph’s
Colonial: George Mason, VCU
C-USA: Memphis, Alabama-Birmingham
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Mountain West: BYU, New Mexico
WAC: New Mexico State
West Coast: Gonzaga
Xavier is a very good team and should make some noise at a national level. The Muskies elevate the A-10 enough that St. Joe’s should see the NCAA’s as well. Mason and VCU should be one-two in the CAA and both should get invites. Memphis, as usual, is a Top 10 team that doesn’t have to play much of a schedule. BYU is the best team in the Mountain West, but New Mexico is going to make an NCAA appearance as well with Steve Alford at the helm. The Lobos have a lot of good talent coming in after this season and could dominate the MWC for years to come. In state rival NMSU should still win the WAC even with coach Reggie Theus departing for the NBA. And here’s a shocker, Gonzaga will win the WCC again. I know, I’m just as surprised as you are.

TOP 25
1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kansas
4. Tennessee
5. Memphis
6. Louisville
7. Marquette
8. Washington State
9. Indiana
10. Oregon
11. Georgetown
12. Kansas State
13. Texas A&M
14. Michigan State
15. Villanova
16. Arkansas
17. Gonzaga
18. Texas
19. Vanderbilt
20. Xavier
21. Arizona
22. Maryland
23. Duke
24. Southern Illinois
25. Clemson

Eagles at Redskins: Mid-year Review

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
You know that I’m a big subscriber to the belief that a win is a win. Whether it’s 30 or three, get the “W” and get out of town. That’s what makes pro football better than college. It doesn’t matter how you do it, it just matters that you get the job done. And the Redskins did just that last week.

The Skins are at the midpoint with a 5-3 record. Not bad. Could be better. Could be worse. They are a game out of a playoff spot, with plenty of chances to play their way in or play their way out. With the exception of the game against the Giants, all eight games have gone exactly as they should have. The Redskins are better than every team they’ve beaten so far, and aren’t quite as good as the three teams they’ve lost to (which, by the way, have a combined 22-3 record).

What that means is we really haven’t learned all that much about Washington this season. While they’ve won ugly and lost close games, each part of their team has shown flashes of brilliance along with periods of bad play. Eight games remain for the Skins, and we should learn a lot about how good this team is in the next few weeks.

The Redskins have three “tough” games left and five games against above average or mediocre teams. The Skins have home games against the Eagles, Bills and Bears and road trips to Minnesota and Tampa. Those five teams check in with a combined 18-23 record. Personally, I think those five teams are better than their combined record indicates. In fact, the one team with a winning record – the Buccaneers – are probably the worst of the five teams in terms of talent. Theoretically, if the Redskins are a good team, they should probably win four of those five remaining games. The Redskins still have to play the Giants in the swamplands and have their traditional home-and-home remaining with the Cowboys. If the Redskins are not a great team, and they haven’t proven they are yet, then they’re probably not good enough to win more than one of those three. Which would give them another 5-3 season half, which would give the Redskins a 10-6 overall record, and in all probability, a wild-card spot.

Now, in lieu of a bunch of college basketball material, a long preview next week when the Redskins visit the Hole-in-the-Roof and a bunch of work at my actual job, we’re cutting this preview a bit short. We’ve already seen the Eagles once this season, and not much has changed since mid-September.

The Eagles are still heavily dependant on Donovan McNabb despite the fact their best offensive player is Brian Westbrook. McNabb has been hindering this team for the past three seasons and only now are people starting to realize it. McNabb is still nowhere near healthy from his offseason knee surgery. A loss by Philadelphia in this game should open the door for unimpressive backup Kevin Kolb (who accomplished next to nothing at the University of Houston). That would lead to complete anarchy in Philadelphia as anxious Eagles fans wouldn’t know who to boo more. We’ll see if Father of the Decade candidate Andy Reid decides to go this route.

The Eagles defense is still good, but certainly not as scary as it was a couple of seasons ago. Brian Dawkins has gotten very old, very quickly. The corners are never healthy. Using undersized linebackers, a strategy that worked for Philly in the past, has failed them this season as they are getting bullied by decent sized teams. This is a defense which can shut you down for a couple of quarters, but will also give up big plays and a few good drives every game. Heck, the Redskins were able to sustain four scoring drives in the first contest this year.

The Redskins beat the Eagles in Philadelphia by not making mistakes, capitalizing on the mistakes made by the Eagles and controlling the clock. Recently, the Redskins have been able to do the last two, but the Skins have been making a lot more mistakes than earlier on. That must change and change quickly.

The Redskins won’t have the ability to run for nearly 300 yards against Philly like they did last week against the Jets. The Eagles run defense is solid, allowing only 93 yards a game on the ground. As I mentioned, they are vulnerable against the pass, especially the deep balls, but Jason Campbell and the offense have shown no signs of being able to connect on big passes consistently. They had several shots against the Eagles in game number one, but missed on most of them.

Defensively, I think Gregg Williams’ strategy of dropping seven men (which he abandoned against the Jets) should work against McNabb. He’s no longer a running threat with his knee injury, and he’s never been the best pocket passer. Let him stand in the pocket and make mistakes. There should be no need to blitz him. By dropping seven that also should keep Westbrook in check when the Eagles use him on screens and dump passes.

There is no reason the Redskins can’t put up another eight-point win on the Eagles. A 6-3 record is a must with another two game road trip on the horizon. Even if the Redskins win it ugly, as long as they get the “W”, it doesn’t matter. Just get it done.

NFL Week 10: What Can The Browns Do For You?

After three straight good weeks, I was due for a bad one. And a bad one I had. 6-7 overall is not just a bad week, it’s under .500 and unacceptable. The records are soiled and tainted:
Overall: 78-44 (64%)
Vs. Spread: 69-47-6

A bad week usually results in a tremendous effort the following week, but please don’t use these picks as the sole basis for any gambling anyway.

SUNDAY

Buffalo Bills (4-4)(-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-8)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Very quietly, the Bills have snuck back to .500. I thought that would be impossible for Buffalo following their debacle against Dallas on Monday Night a few weeks ago. Though the wins have come against the Ravens, Jets and Bengals, you won’t see the Bills complaining. The competition doesn’t get any tougher this week against winless Miami. I could very easily see the Dolphins winning this game, coming off their bye week against an over-confident Buffalo team. But I have to pick against them until they have more wins than Notre Dame.
Pick: Bills

Cleveland Browns (5-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
The Browns only have three home games left. Let’s assume that they beat Houston, Buffalo and San Francisco at home. That’s eight wins. With road games against the Steelers, Ravens, Cardinals, Jets and Bengals, the Browns would only have to win two of those to get to 10 wins and a likely playoff spot. That’s very doable. They’ll probably get pounded here, but their playoff push starts next week in Baltimore.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis Rams (0-8) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-4)(-12)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
As I said the last two weeks, the Saints are going to win the NFC South and end up with at least 10 wins. If not more. They’ve finally figured out how to use Reggie Bush properly. Drew Brees has finally settled down. Plus, they play some really bad teams. Case in point: the Rams.
Pick: Saints, Rams cover

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-4)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Field
Man I wish the Redskins were in the South. Playing in this division, the Skins would probably be 6-2 with a comfortable lead. Instead they’re fighting for the final wild card position and in third place in the East. Meanwhile, if the Saints falter, the Panthers could go .500 the rest of the way and still have a good shot at winning the division.
Pick: Panthers

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
There’s this obnoxious Green Bay fan at my office. While it has been impossible to get him off his high horse with the Packers sitting at 7-1 (and thereby making him more obnoxious), it was fun watching him during the Vikings game last week. While Adrian Peterson kept racking up yards, he got real quiet, muttered something about “the next Randy Moss come to screw Green Bay” and sulked in his office the rest of the day. That was enjoyable.
Pick: Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-2)(-4)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
The Jaguars – officially known as the Redskins of the AFC – have no business going into Tennessee and winning this game while dealing with a bunch of injuries. So naturally, they’ll win by a touchdown.
Pick: Jaguars

Denver Broncos (3-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Neither of these teams could beat Green Bay at home, and neither of these teams are going to challenge San Diego during the 2nd half of the season.
Pick: Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-4)(-6)
4:05 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Last chance to dance for the Criminals (the ones in black and purple, not black and orange). With a brutal second half schedule, the Ravens must beat both Cincinnati and Cleveland at home to have any hope of even sniffing a playoff spot. I believe you all know by now what I think the chances are of seeing the Ravens in the playoffs this season.
Pick: Bengals

Chicago Bears (3-5)(-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-6)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
The Raiders invest millions of dollars in Jamarcus Russell. They started the season at 2-2, but have lost four in a row. Their starting quarterbacks, Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper, are throwing interception after interception. McCown just put up one of the worst performances of the season last week against Houston. And Russell is still on the bench. I think it’s time to see what the rookie can do.
Pick: Bears

Dallas Cowboys (7-1)(-1) vs. New York Giants (6-2)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Have you seen the promos that FOX has been running this week? At first, FOX was labeling this one the “Game of the Year.” Until they realized that New England, Indianapolis and CBS had just laid claim to that one. Now they’re billing it as the “Game of the Year in the NFC.” Somehow, I don’t think that has the same ring to it. Poor FOX.
Pick: Cowboys

Detroit Lions (6-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-5)(-1)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Hard for me to get excited about Detroit’s 44-7 win over Denver. Especially when you consider the quarterback for the Broncos was Patrick Ramsey. He alone is worth 21 points for the other team.
Pick: Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts (7-1)(-3.5) vs. San Diego Chargers (4-4)
8:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Let’s see…an angry Peyton Manning or a stupefied Norv Turner? Jeez, that’s a tough call. Expect a beat down so severe and complete, that the game will end with Manning holding Norv’s head in the dirt until Turner agrees to by a new Sprint camera phone.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

San Francisco 49ers (2-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)(-10)
8:30 p.m. Qwest Field
Ok, who was the wise guy who decided to put the 49ers in the Monday night game?
Pick: Seahawks

Bye Week: Houston, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay

The Redskins go for their second sweep in three seasons of the lifeless Eagles. More on that later in the week.

Redskins at Jets: From Boy, To Man-genius, To Man-fool

Washington Redskins (4-3) at New York Jets (1-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
I’m not going to spend too much time talking about last weekend. It was ugly. It was a blowout. The Redskins didn’t deserve to be on, or near, the same field as New England. There was nothing positive to take out of the game except for another sterling performance from London Fletcher. Other than that, the game was a complete waste.

I did enjoy the ESPN freakout when debating whether or not the Patriots ran up the score. For whatever reason, the Redskins were shown as whiners and complainers on this issue. The only thing is no one from the Redskins really complained for two days. Finally, ESPN and NBC were able to find Randall Godfrey, who had some issues with the way the game ended. AT LAST! ESPN had their story. Based on one player, who is really insignificant, the entire organization was painted as a bunch of softies who couldn’t take their beating like men. It just took them two days and interviews with nearly every coach and player to find one who had problems with the Homeless Bum running up the score. Typical invented story from Bristol.

It reminded me a lot of when the NBA’s John Amaechi wrote his autobiography and announced he was gay. ESPN must have interviewed every current and former player to see if they could get someone to say “Ewww, a gay dude…I’d never play with him” or something to that effect. It took them almost a week before they found Tim Hardaway and Shavlik Randolph, two players of no real importance, to say something stupid. All of a sudden, it blew up and became the big story ESPN hoped it would be. I could see a big deal being made if LeBron James or Gilbert Arenas said something. Just like I could understand if Joe Gibbs or Jason Campbell said something after the Patriots game. But Randall Godfrey? That’s just getting ridiculous.

As usual, following any Redskins loss, the city goes into panic mode. That’s why I’m here. Not to get too high after wins, but not to keep you too depressed after bad losses. If you are looking for a big picture, I’ll give it to you. As bad as that loss was, it only counts as one loss. In fact, that game was less important than previous losses to Green Bay and the Giants because it was outside of the NFC. It carries no real importance in terms of postseason positioning or tie-breaking scenarios. Better to play New England in the middle of the season instead of playing them towards the end of the year in a must win situation. The Redskins are 4-3, with two winnable games coming up and they are still right in the middle of the NFC playoff race.

I mentioned this after the Giants game, and I feel it merits mentioning again. I’m continued to be blown away by the similarities between this season and 2005. In the 7th game of 2005, the Redskins went to the Meadowlands with a 4-2 record. They promptly got dismantled 36-0 by the Giants, only to go on and beat the Eagles the following week. Fast forward two years, and the Redskins find themselves in nearly the same situation. Following an ugly loss in their 7th game to drop their record to 4-3, the Redskins season is far from over. A win this week, and the Skins reach the halfway mark at 5-3, which is exactly where I thought they’d be when the season began.

That being said, I believe the Redskins MUST win these next two games. First a terrible Jets team followed by a struggling Eagles team the Skins have already beaten once this season. The Redskins need to be 6-3 heading into their two game road trip to Dallas and Tampa. The Skins faced their first “must” game of the year two weeks ago against Arizona. They barely won it.

So as the Redskins make their first of two visits to the swamplands and pig farms of Northern New Jersey (I think now is a good time to tell you how much I hate Jon Bon Jovi. That no talent assclown's music shouldn't be on the radio, it should be burned and destroyed), their mission could not be clearer. The Redskins should win this game against the Jets easily. There should be no problems. This Jets team is absolutely terrible. They flat out stink. They can’t run or pass the ball. They can’t stop the pass or run. They have one of the worst defenses in the league to compliment one of the worst offenses.

The head coach of this project is Eric Mangini. Mangini took over the Jets last year and was hailed as a savior. After all, Mangini had coached under the Homeless Bum in New England. How could he not be great? Never mind the track record of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, two other Belichick disciples. This guy was going to be different. This is the “Man-genius” we’re talking about.

After one season, it looked as if the Jets, their fans and the loyal Belichick subjects at ESPN were correct. A 10-6 record and a trip to the playoffs were in order for the Jets. However, no one looked closely at the numbers. Yes, the Jets were 10-6 and did make the playoffs. But they played one of the easiest schedules in the history of the NFL. The 10 wins came against teams with a .400 winning percentage. That was the lowest in NFL history for any playoff team. The Jets won a considerable number of those games by a touchdown or less. So the Jets got a couple of lucky bounces against some incredibly bad teams. Instead of a 6-10 season, which they could have easily had, the Jets ended up in the playoffs. All those fortunate bounces and their terrible schedule were overlooked. Mangini became a hero.

I hated watching every minute of it. It was disgusting how the national media ate this guy up without even considering how lucky he had been. It sure didn’t help that Mangini is just as big an asshole as his mentor. With his snide remarks at innocent questions, his shoving of camera men, his superiority complex, it was as if we were staring at a younger Belichick. The only good thing about it was I knew the Jets were due for a terrible year this season. I knew that the law of averages would balance out, and some of those close wins last season would become losses this year. I knew the Jets schedule would be much harder. No more NFC North and AFC South (which was much worse last season than this one). Now the Jets had to deal with the NFC East and AFC North. On top of that, they had to play a second place schedule, so they’d get games against Tennessee and Kansas City instead of Houston and Oakland. The best part about the “Mangini legend” being built up is that he would have farther to fall when 2007 rolled around.

Sure enough, the Jets are terrible. Their season is already over. Now, the same media that built him up as the next great head coach, is scratching their heads wondering what happened. Mangini is getting ridiculed left and right by the repulsive New York media for failing to live up to the very lofty and unreasonable expectations that the media themselves created. And I’m loving it. Mangini and New York deserve each other.

As I said, this Jets team is absolutely abysmal. Their defense is 29th in the league. They surrender almost 26 points a game. The best player they have is Jonathan Vilma, and the Jets are doing to him what Joe Gibbs did to Lavar Arrington. They’re putting him at a position he’s not suited for, then benching him when he doesn’t perform well. Now he’s “hurt” and not playing at all.

Offensively, the Jets are 30th in the league. Thomas Jones has proved to be a decent runner and is really one of the only bright spots on the entire team. Other than that, the offense is a mess. Primary receiver and former Redskin Laveranues Coles will miss the game with a concussion. The Jets continue their quarterback shuffle as fragile Chad Pennington returns to the bench. Remember when ESPN built this guy up to be the next Joe Namath? Well, technically he succeeded, since Namath was a bad quarterback who threw 60 more interceptions than touchdowns for his career. His entire Hall of Fame credentials are built around one game. A game he didn’t play all that well in either. And Art Monk isn’t in the HOF yet because…?

Anyway, I digress. Pennington will sit as Kellen Clemens gets the chance behind center. Quarterback changes like these always make me nervous. You know what you’re getting with Pennington. With Clemens, he could be even worse than Pennington, or he could be the spark the Jets are looking for. I like the Redskins secondary, especially with the loss of Carlos Rogers and the return of Fred Smoot, against Clemens in this game. The Redskins usually do very well against the run and that will force Clemens to beat them. I’m not sure he’s going to be able to do that.

Again, the Redskins should win this game and win it easily. Which of course means the Redskins will make this game a lot closer than it should be. So expect a three point game with field goals being the difference. Even though the Redskins are better than last year, some things never change.

NFL Week 9: Predicting More Than Just Games

Another solid week, this one with a 10-2 record (both overall and against the spread), continues the trend upward over the course of the last few weeks. It also gives me a season-high for winning percentage. If you will Maestro, records please:
Overall: 72-37 (67%)
Vs. Spread: 62-41-6

With this kind of hot streak, you might as well use this page for gambling purposes…but please don’t.

SUNDAY

Green Bay Packers (6-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I don’t know how the Packers keep winning games and I have a feeling they’re doing it on borrowed time. On the other side, Kansas City has been called an unimpressive 4-3. However, two of those wins are against teams coming off their bye weeks. In my book, that counts as impressive. KC finally had a bye week of their own, and should be able to beat the Packers, playing on a short week after their Monday night game.
Pick: Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
I really think the Bucs should be given considerable credit for reaching 4-4 with a 37-year-old quarterback (who took over after a wild offseason that included the Bucs having six quarterbacks with significant NFL experience on their roster at the same time), no running back after the injury to Cadillac Williams and no major receiving threat younger than Joey Galloway. Yes, Galloway is still in the NFL. I can’t see them keeping this up much longer. Too many injuries on both side of the ball.
Pick: Cardinals

Carolina Panthers (4-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (5-2)(-4)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
The Titans started this season out going 2-1, with three solid outings. The one loss was to Indianapolis, but it was close all the way through and it may have been Tennessee’s most complete outing of the season. The Titans have since gone 3-1 since their bye week, but haven’t had a great performance in any of the four games. Close wins against Atlanta and Oakland, along with their near catastrophic collapse against Houston, have left me wondering if the Titans, despite their gaudy 5-2 record, are real contenders for a playoff spot. Their schedule should be soft enough for 10 wins. Even in the AFC, that should be enough.
Pick: Titans

San Francisco 49ers (2-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-6)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
“I've been raving about him all season. He is such a spectacular athlete. I doubt you will find, maybe ever, a tight end with more physical gifts than Vernon Davis -- and I mean from 25 years ago to 25 years from now. How many tight ends are 6-3 and 250 pounds, run the 40-yard dash in the 4.4 range, and have a vertical leap of 40 inches while bench-pressing 400-plus pounds? We'll see if he tests out that fast during workouts, but those are rare qualities from a physical and athletic standpoint. His blocking needs to improve, and he'll work on that. Davis is a spectacular pass-catching tight end because he has wide-receiver skills. Keep in mind, the quarterback play at Maryland the last few years hasn't been scintillating. After workouts, Davis should project as a top-10 pick.”

-Mel Kiper, April 2006

“Vernon Davis is the most over-hyped, overrated player in the draft this season. First, you never take a tight end in the Top 10. Never. A good tight end can be found in any round. A good tight end in the draft won’t vault your team to the playoffs like a good lineman or quarterback can....No player is better in workouts and practice and training sessions than Davis. But he disappears in games. I’ve seen the real Davis. The one who will make three or four amazing catches one week, then not even show up the next three. Forget taking plays off. He takes entire games off. And the only major advantage he had in college was his size. That won’t be the case in the NFL, where he will be strictly above average in terms of bulk. Unfortunately, the 49ers will be able to draft Davis here [sixth overall pick]. This is an organization that thought Alex Smith was a #1 overall pick. Davis must seem like a Hall of Famer to the 49ers. From here on out, Davis is going to be my poster child for why the draft is all hype and not important.”

-Mark the Predictor, April 2006

Score one for me.
Pick: Falcons

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-4)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
I still have the New Orleans Saints winning the NFC South this year. Not only that, they should win this division comfortably. Even if the Saints trip up here, they won’t lose again until mid-December.
Pick: Saints

Denver Broncos (3-4) vs. Detroit Lions (5-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
I could very easily see the Lions going into December at 8-3, only to lose all five games. Whatever their record is going into December, I still see them losing all five games to close out the year.
Pick: Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-4)(PK)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The return of J.P. Losman means that I’m returning to my policy of not picking the Buffalo Bills.
Pick: Bengals

San Diego Chargers (4-3)(-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
An indoor surface and LaDainian Tomlinson should be enough to will the Chargers to a win. Unless Norv Turner decides to get stupid again. And knowing Norv, he probably will.
Pick: Chargers

Seattle Seahawks (4-3) vs. Cleveland Browns (4-3)(-1)
4:05 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
I would say this is the last chance for Seattle to get their act together and start making a playoff push. But in their division, they could end up 8-8 and still win the whole thing by a couple of games.
Pick: Seahawks

New England Patriots (8-0)(-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)
4:15 p.m. RCA Dome
Before you throw more of your money at the Patriots, just remember where this game is being played. Remember last year, when the knock on Peyton Manning and Indy was they couldn’t beat the Patriots when it mattered. It was a very unfair statement, considering the previous playoff losses came at New England. The Colts never had a chance to play the Patriots on a field that didn’t have six-inch, unkempt grass, that was left to the elements all week. But all of a sudden, the Colts have won three in a row against the Pats, including a playoff win, at home. Another game at home should be another win for the Colts, who just don’t lose at home (two-and-half seasons and counting). I guarantee that you’ll never see an undefeated team playing at home in November as a touchdown underdog ever again.
Pick: Colts

Houston Texans (3-4) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-5)(-3)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
For whatever reason, CBS decided to hype the Patriots-Colts game a lot more than this contest. I wonder why…
Pick: Texans

Dallas Cowboys (6-1)(-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
8:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
If you’ve read this page before, you know my favorite saying when it comes to two NFC East teams playing each other: “Thank goodness one of them has to lose.”
Pick: Cowboys

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)(-8)
8:30 p.m. Heinz Field
I’ve heard that this was a big game. Not really. It is the beginning of the end for the 2007 Ravens. I said two weeks ago that if the Ravens looked past Buffalo and lost, they would be in a world of trouble coming off their bye week. It is November, and the Ravens out-of-conference schedule, full of Southeastern State’s, Eastern Michigan’s and St. Louis Rams, is over. After only going 4-3 against opponents with a combined 15-36 record (yes, that’s correct, the average team the Ravens have played so far has around a 2-5 record), the Ravens now have nine games left against teams with a combined 39-26 record. Plus, the Ravens have yet to win a division game (one of only six teams to do that so far, and two of those teams have no wins at all). With two games against Pittsburgh, along with games against New England, Indianapolis and San Diego, there is absolutely no way the Ravens make it past the eight win mark. Which is exactly what I said in August.
Pick: Steelers

Bye Week: Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, St. Louis

Redskins-Jets preview comes sometime before Sunday.