2007-08 NCAA Basketball Preview

College basketball time! Here is a conference-by-conference prediction breakdown, with some extra analysis for the ACC. All of this is followed by my Top 25. This will be the last time you see my Top 25 until January, as anything before conference play starts is kind of pointless. Analysis of Maryland basketball should come next week as the Terps get ready to play UCLA. The games against small teams will not have any previews. Sorry, too busy for that. Any team I predict making the tournament from the Big Six conferences is denoted with a *.

ACC
North Carolina* - Once again the best team in the ACC, and it’s not even close. When Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson are your one-two punch, you’re in very good shape. This is the only complete team in the conference

Maryland* - Call me a homer if you want, and there’s probably a little bias here. But look at the rest of the ACC. Other than Carolina, it’s an absolute crapshoot. I like the backcourt of Eric Hayes and Greivis Vasquez teamed with the two-headed monster inside of James Gist and Boom Osby. Depth, with a lot of freshman, will be a big issue. But the starting five is second only to UNC.

Duke* - Having the Devils this high isn’t an indication on how good Duke will be this season, it’s an indication of how down the conference is. For the Blow Devils, there are a lot of solid role players on the floor, but no stars. And certainly no leaders. I keep hearing about Kyle Singler, but as of now, he’s done absolutely nothing at the college level. I’ll believe his hype when I see it.

Clemson* - With K.C. Rivers and James Mays being two of the four returning starters, Clemson will have more experience than anyone in the conference. The only problem is the loss of point guard Vernon Hamilton. The Tigers will start a true freshman at point, something that’s never a good idea in the ACC. Plus, Oliver Purnell is one of the worst coaches in the league.

Virginia* - With Sean Singletary returning, there is enough talent behind him to get another NCAA bid. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough for another 11-win season in the ACC.

NC State – Yes, this team is improving. But to pick this squad 2nd or 3rd in the ACC, which I’ve seen a lot of publications doing, is absurd. The Wolfpack went 5-11 in the conference last season. Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley are a solid tandem inside, but the backcourt without Engin Atsur is very unproven. Too much youth on this team. Give them another year.

Georgia Tech – Would have put the Jackets above NC State, but then I heard about their loss to UNC-Greensboro. That’s not the good UNC.

Boston College – The Eagles were able to overcome the loss of Craig Smith last season because of the stellar play of Jared Dudley. So how will the Eagles overcome the loss of Dudley this season?

Miami – The Canes won’t be as bad as most people think. They won’t be much better either. So if most experts have them penciled in at 11th or 12th, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and put them at 9th.

Virginia Tech – This will be down year for Seth Greenberg after losing his entire backcourt. Consistent scoring will be a serious problem for the Hokies. A very talented class comes in next season, but it won’t do Tech much good in 2008.

Wake Forest – It was already going to be a rough year for the Deacons before Skip Prosser passed away. Now, besides Ishmael Smith, there isn’t much reason for hope. The conference’s youngest team being led by a first-year coach isn’t the formula for ACC success.

Florida State – Al Thornton was on this team for four years and they couldn’t make the NCAA tournament. There is no way Leonard Hamilton leads this team to the Big Dance without Thornton.

Big East
Louisville*
Marquette*
Georgetown*
Villanova*
Syracuse*
Connecticut*
Notre Dame*
Pittsburgh
Providence
Seton Hall
West Virginia
Cincinnati
DePaul
Rutgers
St. John’s
South Florida
No one should assume this conference will automatically be Georgetown’s. Roy Hibbert is not a player that can carry an entire team for weeks at a time. Louisville is the most complete and experienced team in the conference, and they have the best coach as well. Marquette is a team that intrigues me with the guard play. Syracuse and UConn should be much improved. Pittsburgh is due for a step back with the loss of Aaron Gray. Providence and Seton Hall return the majority of their teams and could sneak in the NCAA’s. WVU needs another year with Bob Huggins before their ready to compete.

Big 10
Indiana*
Michigan State*
Ohio State*
Illinois*
Purdue*
Wisconsin
Michigan
Penn State
Minnesota
Iowa
Northwestern
With a good mixture of veterans and youth, size and speed, Indiana should take this conference. Michigan State is a good team, but they have no physical big man that really stands out. Ohio State will slip without the Oden/Conley/Cook combination…but not as far as most think. Illinois will be better than last year. Welcome Purdue to national contention, as they should make it back-to-back NCAA trips. Wisconsin and Iowa are on the way down. I’m not so sure Wisconsin makes the tournament this year. Penn State and Minnesota are on the up and up. The Big 10, by the way, is the worst of the six power conferences this season.

Big 12
North
Kansas (1)*
Kansas State (2)*
Missouri (5)*
Iowa State (10)
Colorado (11)
Nebraska (12)

South
Texas A&M (3)*
Texas (4)*
Texas Tech (6)
Oklahoma State (7)
Oklahoma (8)
Baylor (9)
Kansas will again be the cream of the crop. KSU would have been much better if Huggins had stayed, but they are still a Top 20 team. Despite the losses of Acie Law and Kevin Durant, A&M and Texas are still strong in the Southern Division. The Aggies should benefit from the addition of DeAndre Jordon, who jones Joseph Jones in one of the best frontcourts in the country. After years of toiling away with Quinn Snyder, Missouri is back under Mike Anderson. Baylor could be a legitimate sleeper this season, with all of their players returning.

Pac-10
UCLA*
Washington State*
Oregon*
Arizona*
Southern California*
Stanford*
Washington
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
For 2007-08, the best football and basketball conference are one in the same. The Pac-10 contains at least three legitimate national contenders. UCLA should be the favorite to win the title this season. Washington State is the best defensive team in the country. Oregon, despite the loss of Aaron Brooks, may be the deepest team in the Pac-10. Arizona will be a Top 25 team this year, even without Lute Olsen for a lengthened period of time. O.J. Mayo and USC will be disappointments, but still make the tournament easily. Stanford and Washington are middle of the pack teams in the Pac-10, but would be top three in any other conference. At least one, if not both should get tournament bids.

SEC
East
Tennessee* (1)
Vanderbilt* (3)
Kentucky* (4)
Florida* (6)
South Carolina (10)
Georgia (11)

West
Arkansas* (2)
Mississippi State* (5)
Auburn (7)
Alabama (8)
LSU (9)
Ole Miss (12)
Tennessee returns too much talent to not win this weakened conference. Arkansas should be able to cruise in the West with a bunch of other mediocre teams. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt is expected to fall. But they return everyone else and bring in Andrew Ogilvy, who is supposed to be the next Andrew Bogut. Even with Billy Gillispie at the helm, Kentucky just doesn’t have the talent to catch up to Volunteers. No one in the country lost more than Florida. They will struggle big time. But, as long as they go 8-8 in conference, there's no way that the NCAA will allow them to miss the tournament. Mississippi State should be good enough to get 9 or 10 wins in conference and earn a NCAA bid. The rest of the conference is average at best. There are some really lousy teams (S.C., Georgia, Ole Miss) that would struggle in mid-major conferences.

Mid-Majors
Atlantic 10: Xavier, St. Joseph’s
Colonial: George Mason, VCU
C-USA: Memphis, Alabama-Birmingham
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Mountain West: BYU, New Mexico
WAC: New Mexico State
West Coast: Gonzaga
Xavier is a very good team and should make some noise at a national level. The Muskies elevate the A-10 enough that St. Joe’s should see the NCAA’s as well. Mason and VCU should be one-two in the CAA and both should get invites. Memphis, as usual, is a Top 10 team that doesn’t have to play much of a schedule. BYU is the best team in the Mountain West, but New Mexico is going to make an NCAA appearance as well with Steve Alford at the helm. The Lobos have a lot of good talent coming in after this season and could dominate the MWC for years to come. In state rival NMSU should still win the WAC even with coach Reggie Theus departing for the NBA. And here’s a shocker, Gonzaga will win the WCC again. I know, I’m just as surprised as you are.

TOP 25
1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kansas
4. Tennessee
5. Memphis
6. Louisville
7. Marquette
8. Washington State
9. Indiana
10. Oregon
11. Georgetown
12. Kansas State
13. Texas A&M
14. Michigan State
15. Villanova
16. Arkansas
17. Gonzaga
18. Texas
19. Vanderbilt
20. Xavier
21. Arizona
22. Maryland
23. Duke
24. Southern Illinois
25. Clemson