NFL Week 9: Predicting More Than Just Games

Another solid week, this one with a 10-2 record (both overall and against the spread), continues the trend upward over the course of the last few weeks. It also gives me a season-high for winning percentage. If you will Maestro, records please:
Overall: 72-37 (67%)
Vs. Spread: 62-41-6

With this kind of hot streak, you might as well use this page for gambling purposes…but please don’t.

SUNDAY

Green Bay Packers (6-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I don’t know how the Packers keep winning games and I have a feeling they’re doing it on borrowed time. On the other side, Kansas City has been called an unimpressive 4-3. However, two of those wins are against teams coming off their bye weeks. In my book, that counts as impressive. KC finally had a bye week of their own, and should be able to beat the Packers, playing on a short week after their Monday night game.
Pick: Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
I really think the Bucs should be given considerable credit for reaching 4-4 with a 37-year-old quarterback (who took over after a wild offseason that included the Bucs having six quarterbacks with significant NFL experience on their roster at the same time), no running back after the injury to Cadillac Williams and no major receiving threat younger than Joey Galloway. Yes, Galloway is still in the NFL. I can’t see them keeping this up much longer. Too many injuries on both side of the ball.
Pick: Cardinals

Carolina Panthers (4-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (5-2)(-4)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
The Titans started this season out going 2-1, with three solid outings. The one loss was to Indianapolis, but it was close all the way through and it may have been Tennessee’s most complete outing of the season. The Titans have since gone 3-1 since their bye week, but haven’t had a great performance in any of the four games. Close wins against Atlanta and Oakland, along with their near catastrophic collapse against Houston, have left me wondering if the Titans, despite their gaudy 5-2 record, are real contenders for a playoff spot. Their schedule should be soft enough for 10 wins. Even in the AFC, that should be enough.
Pick: Titans

San Francisco 49ers (2-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-6)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
“I've been raving about him all season. He is such a spectacular athlete. I doubt you will find, maybe ever, a tight end with more physical gifts than Vernon Davis -- and I mean from 25 years ago to 25 years from now. How many tight ends are 6-3 and 250 pounds, run the 40-yard dash in the 4.4 range, and have a vertical leap of 40 inches while bench-pressing 400-plus pounds? We'll see if he tests out that fast during workouts, but those are rare qualities from a physical and athletic standpoint. His blocking needs to improve, and he'll work on that. Davis is a spectacular pass-catching tight end because he has wide-receiver skills. Keep in mind, the quarterback play at Maryland the last few years hasn't been scintillating. After workouts, Davis should project as a top-10 pick.”

-Mel Kiper, April 2006

“Vernon Davis is the most over-hyped, overrated player in the draft this season. First, you never take a tight end in the Top 10. Never. A good tight end can be found in any round. A good tight end in the draft won’t vault your team to the playoffs like a good lineman or quarterback can....No player is better in workouts and practice and training sessions than Davis. But he disappears in games. I’ve seen the real Davis. The one who will make three or four amazing catches one week, then not even show up the next three. Forget taking plays off. He takes entire games off. And the only major advantage he had in college was his size. That won’t be the case in the NFL, where he will be strictly above average in terms of bulk. Unfortunately, the 49ers will be able to draft Davis here [sixth overall pick]. This is an organization that thought Alex Smith was a #1 overall pick. Davis must seem like a Hall of Famer to the 49ers. From here on out, Davis is going to be my poster child for why the draft is all hype and not important.”

-Mark the Predictor, April 2006

Score one for me.
Pick: Falcons

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-4)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
I still have the New Orleans Saints winning the NFC South this year. Not only that, they should win this division comfortably. Even if the Saints trip up here, they won’t lose again until mid-December.
Pick: Saints

Denver Broncos (3-4) vs. Detroit Lions (5-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
I could very easily see the Lions going into December at 8-3, only to lose all five games. Whatever their record is going into December, I still see them losing all five games to close out the year.
Pick: Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-4)(PK)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The return of J.P. Losman means that I’m returning to my policy of not picking the Buffalo Bills.
Pick: Bengals

San Diego Chargers (4-3)(-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
An indoor surface and LaDainian Tomlinson should be enough to will the Chargers to a win. Unless Norv Turner decides to get stupid again. And knowing Norv, he probably will.
Pick: Chargers

Seattle Seahawks (4-3) vs. Cleveland Browns (4-3)(-1)
4:05 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
I would say this is the last chance for Seattle to get their act together and start making a playoff push. But in their division, they could end up 8-8 and still win the whole thing by a couple of games.
Pick: Seahawks

New England Patriots (8-0)(-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)
4:15 p.m. RCA Dome
Before you throw more of your money at the Patriots, just remember where this game is being played. Remember last year, when the knock on Peyton Manning and Indy was they couldn’t beat the Patriots when it mattered. It was a very unfair statement, considering the previous playoff losses came at New England. The Colts never had a chance to play the Patriots on a field that didn’t have six-inch, unkempt grass, that was left to the elements all week. But all of a sudden, the Colts have won three in a row against the Pats, including a playoff win, at home. Another game at home should be another win for the Colts, who just don’t lose at home (two-and-half seasons and counting). I guarantee that you’ll never see an undefeated team playing at home in November as a touchdown underdog ever again.
Pick: Colts

Houston Texans (3-4) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-5)(-3)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
For whatever reason, CBS decided to hype the Patriots-Colts game a lot more than this contest. I wonder why…
Pick: Texans

Dallas Cowboys (6-1)(-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
8:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
If you’ve read this page before, you know my favorite saying when it comes to two NFC East teams playing each other: “Thank goodness one of them has to lose.”
Pick: Cowboys

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)(-8)
8:30 p.m. Heinz Field
I’ve heard that this was a big game. Not really. It is the beginning of the end for the 2007 Ravens. I said two weeks ago that if the Ravens looked past Buffalo and lost, they would be in a world of trouble coming off their bye week. It is November, and the Ravens out-of-conference schedule, full of Southeastern State’s, Eastern Michigan’s and St. Louis Rams, is over. After only going 4-3 against opponents with a combined 15-36 record (yes, that’s correct, the average team the Ravens have played so far has around a 2-5 record), the Ravens now have nine games left against teams with a combined 39-26 record. Plus, the Ravens have yet to win a division game (one of only six teams to do that so far, and two of those teams have no wins at all). With two games against Pittsburgh, along with games against New England, Indianapolis and San Diego, there is absolutely no way the Ravens make it past the eight win mark. Which is exactly what I said in August.
Pick: Steelers

Bye Week: Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, St. Louis

Redskins-Jets preview comes sometime before Sunday.