NFL Week 11: Going South

Another solid 9-4 this past week means I’ve gone 36-15 over the past four weeks (despite being 6-7 during one of them). Let the good times roll again:
Overall: 87-48 (64%)
Vs. Spread: 77-51-7

Even though I’m on pace for my worst season in three years, the numbers still look good. Please don’t use this page for gambling purposes anyway.

SUNDAY

San Diego Chargers (5-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
As predictable as the Jaguars road win against a good Titans team was, a home loss to the average Chargers is just as obvious.
Pick: Chargers

Cleveland Browns (5-4)(-2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Also as predictable was the Ravens’ 2007 collapse. Although everyone else, from Baltimore to Bristol and beyond seems surprised by the Criminals lack of offense and alarming lack of wins (given how easy their schedule has been so far and how difficult it will be the rest of the season). That’s why I got so many nasty responses from Ravens fans when I wrote this in early September:

“Steve McNair had a very comparable 2006 to Mark Brunell’s 2005. Both started strong, played like smart veterans, and won games. But down the stretch, both faltered. And both played horribly in their respective post-seasons. The aging process finally caught up to Brunell by December 2005, just like it got McNair in December 2006. So why is Baltimore predicted to make a Super Bowl run in 2007? Brunell finished last season on the bench and his team finished with a 5-11 record. McNair may have more in the tank than Brunell did, but he doesn’t have that much more. Why am I to believe that Baltimore’s 2007 campaign will be any different than Washington’s 2006?”

Even if the Ravens win here (and the fact that if the Ravens do win it would be an upset shows you how far they’ve fallen), they’re still screwed. There’s no way they beat New England, Indianapolis and San Diego. That’s eight losses right there. Guess I was right. Then again, I also said St. Louis would make the playoffs this season.
Pick: Browns

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-2)(-14.5)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
As much as I like Indianapolis, I don’t think they have enough healthy NFL-caliber players to beat any team by 14 points right now. Ok, maybe they’d beat San Francisco by that many, but that’s about it.
Pick: Colts, Chiefs cover

Oakland Raiders (2-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-6)(-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Again, I’m going to give Oakland credit for fighting each and every week. They just don’t have the horses to win games. The Raiders are one of the few teams that haven’t laid down and rolled over once this season. That’s more than you can say for a bunch of teams that have winning records.
Pick: Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4)(-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
In a division full of mediocrity, the Buccaneers lead the Saints and Panthers by a game and the Falcons by two. Let’s really take a look at how bad the NFC South is. The Saints started 0-4, got blown out by the winless Rams AT HOME, and are still only one game back. The Panthers are starting the Crypt Keeper at quarterback and have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The Falcons, with their starting quarterback looking at a year of jail-time, have resorted to the deadly combination of Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich. Their best win came against Carolina last week. And if they won this game, they’d somehow be within one game of first. Which brings me to Tampa. The Bucs may be the worst of the group. Despite being relatively healthy (with the exception of the running back position), they haven’t pulled away from the rest of these pathetic teams. Someone has to win this division, and I don’t think it will be either of these two.
Pick: Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers (4-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-1)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Nope, the eventual winner of the NFC South isn’t here either. Keep looking.
Pick: Packers

New Orleans Saints (4-5) vs. Houston Texans (4-5)(PK)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Here they are. I still think the Saints come out on top of this division. I’m not sure what their loss to the Rams was all about. Chalk it up to the Rams coming off a bye week. By the way, Texans’ fans have already had to see Vince Young twice. Now they have to see Reggie Bush drop by. Is there any chance of Charley Casserly showing up to this game? That Mario Williams pick looks worse and worse every day.
Pick: Saints

New York Giants (6-3) vs. Detroit Lions (6-3)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
As much as I would love to see Detroit win this game, the Lions just aren’t ready to beat good teams. You don’t reverse 10 years of losing in one season. If the Lions can finish at 8-8, or even 9-7, that’s got to be considered a remarkable accomplishment.
Pick: Giants

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Even though the Cardinals 1-4 road record indicates they won’t win this game, I think it’s about time to stop picking the Bengals to win every week.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (0-9) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
John Beck now steps under center for the Dolphins. I give him until the end of the season before the next retread quarterback replaces him. The Eagles somehow get back to .500 after this one. Basically, if you are a struggling NFC team, just visit Washington. They’ll get you back on track with a come-from-ahead loss.
Pick: Eagles, Dolphins cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)(-10) vs. New York Jets (1-8)
4:05 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Jets are the anti-Raiders. They have quit on their horrible coach in almost every game this season. They flat out stink.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis Rams (1-8)(-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-7)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
As wrong as I was about the Rams – and I was way, way off on them – I’m so glad I was right on how bad the 49ers were going to be. I said their quarterback situation was bad. Their offensive line hadn’t improved. Their defense, with the exception of the secondary, wasn’t any better than it had been. I knew it was only a matter of time before Frank Gore started becoming injury prone. Now the 49ers appear to be headed for another massive overhaul. That will be tough because they wasted so much money in a tight end who is always hurt and a cornerback who isn’t making any difference. This team will be terrible for at least the next three or four years. To see how far they’ve fallen, they’re underdogs, at home, to a team that just won its first game of the season last week.
Pick: Rams

Chicago Bears (4-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-4)(-5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Intriguing game here, if only because it features two teams that can’t get their acts together. I liked the Bears in the upset until I heard Rex Grossman was back under center. That changed everything. Don’t worry Bears fans, Donovan McNabb will be in Chicago next season.
Pick: Seahawks

New England Patriots (9-0)(-16) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-4)
8:15 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
It was so nice this past week not having to listen to all this Patriots hype mumbo jumbo. Couldn’t they just have bye weeks until the playoffs?
Pick: Patriots

MONDAY

Tennessee Titans (6-3) vs. Denver Broncos (4-5)(-2)
8:30 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Jay Cutler is starting to show some of the promise that I said he would back when the Broncos selected him. Now he gets a chance to take out his fellow 2006 quarterback draft pick Vince Young. Or not.
Pick: Titans

The rivalry renews later this week. Until then, same bat time, same bat channel. And breathe if you hate Dallas.