NFL Week 14: No Spread Is Safe

Another solid week of 10-5 puts me only two games behind last season’s record pace. Considering some of the ugly weeks I had early in the season, I’m in a pretty good place. Let’s continue that, shall we:
Overall: 118-62 (65%)
Vs. Spread: 108-65-7

As always, try not to use these picks for any gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Carolina Panthers (5-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)(-10.5)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
The Panthers are one of 27 NFC teams still only one game or less out of a playoff spot. That they’ve done this while being quarterbacked by Vinny Testaverde would usually be nothing short of remarkable. But considering that they’re still only 5-7, it shows you how bad the middle to lower part of the NFC actually is. As these two 1995 expansion teams meet, it seems like an easy win for the Jaguars, who are a very good football team that continues to fly under the radar. But, we’ve seen the Jaguars blow non-conference games like this for the past few seasons. A Jacksonville loss wouldn’t shock me.
Pick: Jaguars, Panthers cover

Dallas Cowboys (11-1)(-10.5) vs. Detroit Lions (6-6)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Let’s see…an angry Cowboys team that is clicking on offense, that’s had 10 days to prepare for this game and is facing one of the worst defenses in the league. I don’t think there could be a line high enough in this one to persuade me to take Detroit.
Pick: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins (0-12) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-6)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I still don’t think the Dolphins will go winless, but it’s hard to pick them when they’re getting blown out by 27 against a fellow AFC bottom feeder.
Pick: Bills

New York Giants (8-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
C’mon…what would a NFL season be without a New York Giants late season collapse? It hasn’t happened yet, but with their remaining schedule, losing three out of the next four isn’t out of the question.
Pick: Eagles

Oakland Raiders (4-8) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-2)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
As I’ve been saying, the Raiders aren’t as awful as their record indicates. I don’t care how bad Kansas City is, it is never easy to win in Arrowhead. Oakland followed up that win with a victory over Denver, a team that’s owned them during this decade. They’ve played a fairly tough schedule (and won’t be helped by the closing stretch of Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and San Diego), but if they manage to get a fifth win somewhere, I think that has to count as a positive step for the Raiders.
Pick: Packers, Raiders cover

St. Louis Rams (3-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
All I need to know is Brock Berlin is starting for the Rams under center.
Pick: Bengals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4)(-3) vs. Houston Texans (5-7)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Where are all those people who said that the Texans were for real after they started 2-0? A 3-7 record since that time, including two wins over Oakland and Miami, just have me wondering.
Pick: Buccaneers

San Diego Chargers (7-5)(-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-5)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
With a Detroit-Denver-Oakland finish to the season, it appears that all the Chargers would have to do is get by Tennessee to run the table, get a nice 11-5 record, and get ready to face the Browns or Titans again at home in the first round of the playoffs. That’s why they’ll probably lose here, go 10-6, and be forced to face Jacksonville in round one. Be on upset alert.
Pick: Titans

Minnesota Vikings (6-6)(-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-9)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
Speaking of upset alert, look out Vikings! Minnesota is feeling really good about themselves as of late, certainly good enough to overlook a miserable 49ers team. I don’t think the lousy play of Tarvaris Jackson has reared its ugly head for the last time. This game reeks of an upset. I wish I had the guts to pick the straight 49ers win, because it wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Pick: Vikings, 49ers cover

Arizona Cardinals (6-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)(-7.5)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
Another potential upset. The Seahawks never have an easy time in their own division. Get them outside of the NFC West, and they usually do fairly well. However, they play way too many close games in this terrible division. They’ve been doing so for years. Look for the Cardinals to make this one very interesting.
Pick: Seahawks, Cardinals cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) vs. New England Patriots (12-0)(-11)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Field
I for one don’t think that the Patriots received any favorable treatment against Baltimore. If you take a look at most of the Ravens’ 13 penalties, most of them were false starts, offsides and delay of games. Which are pretty obvious calls. The personal foul on Bart Scott for throwing an official’s flag is also a very obvious call. The only two questionable calls were the late pass interference penalties. One I thought was a good call, the other was borderline. Other than that, the Ravens pretty much shot themselves in the foot this past Monday night and had a typical Ravens meltdown that included trash talking after a loss and complaining about the refs from both coaches and players.

However, lost in all this babbling over the Ravens, is the fact that Patriots have played two lousy games in a row against two lousy teams. They continue to exhibit no running game whatsoever. Their defense is very questionable in the secondary. One week after getting burned by Hall of Famer A.J. Feeley, the Patriots allowed perennial Pro-Bowler Kyle Boller to go 15-23 for 210 yards and two scores. These are things that are going to catch up to New England as the weather gets colder. As good as the Patriots are, they don’t seem to be built to play in cold weather and less than ideal conditions. That’s pretty ironic considering where they play. Pittsburgh will probably lose here, but don’t just automatically hand the AFC over the New England. I think both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are going to seriously challenge the Pats in January.
Pick: Patriots, Steelers cover

Cleveland Browns (7-5)(-3.5) vs. New York Jets (3-9)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
I’m still very much enjoying the Jets collapse this season. The only reason I’m enjoying it so much is that I was apparently the only one to see it coming. It’s called research people.
Pick: Browns

Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) vs. Denver Broncos (5-7)(-7)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Last month, this looked like a great matchup featuring two teams that were right in the thick of a mediocre division. Well, they’ve still got the mediocre division thing going for them.
Pick: Broncos

Indianapolis Colts (10-2)(-9) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-8)
8:15 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Once upon a midnight dreary, there was a team both weak and weary
This past Monday they had a huge meltdown that many deplore
Their coach looked dumb, their team looked old, their fans as obnoxious as ever
False starts, personal fouls and other no-nos they were called for
Can they recover, maybe win and some luster they restore?
Quoth the Ravens “Nevermore”
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

New Orleans Saints (5-7)(-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-9)
8:30 p.m. Georgia Dome
So when do we consider Reggie Bush somewhat of a bust? And how big of a bust is he? The man has only produced three runs from scrimmage that have been 20 yards or more in his career. Adrian Peterson does that in a quarter. Heck, Bills retread Fred Jackson did that twice against the Redskins the other week. Just let me know so I can be on board.
Pick: Saints