NFL Week 15: "STIFF ARM! FOUR YARD GAIN!"

An 11-4 week plus a win last night as the Texans beat the Broncos continues the overall record on its steep ascent. However, the record against the spread did not fare so well last week, and it was epitomized in the Bengals 9-point win over the Rams with the line sitting at 9.5. Eesh:
Overall: 130-66 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 113-75-7

SATURDAY

Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)(-8.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
8:15 p.m. Monster Park
As mentioned previously, the Bengals failed to win by the necessary 10 points and the 49ers didn’t cover a very large spread against the Vikings (which I thought they would). Clearly, neither one of these teams deserve to win this week as retribution. And if the Bengals only win by eight, so help me…
Pick: Bengals

SUNDAY

Arizona Cardinals (6-7) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-7)(-4)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Last week, when I said that the Cardinals would make their game against Seattle close, I forgot to factor in the crappy Seattle weather. If I had known it would be 50 and rainy (which, since it was Seattle, I probably should have), I would never have picked a team led by Kurt Warner to cover the spread. Warner is one of the worst outdoor quarterbacks of all-time. No problems for Kurt in the dome this week.
Pick: Cardinals

Atlanta Falcons (3-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
To show you how bad the Falcons are, just look at the line for this game. How in the world can anyone make Tampa Bay a 13-point favorite?
Pick: Buccaneers, Falcons cover

Baltimore Ravens (4-9)(-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-13)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Last chance to dance for the Dolphins, because they won’t win either of their final two games. This is a very beatable Ravens team and one that very closely resembles Miami. Both defenses are getting old, neither team possesses any offensive weapons and both coaches should, and won’t, be fired.
Pick: Ravens

Buffalo Bills (7-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (8-5)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Both teams have two easy wins at the end of their schedules, so the winner here should be the AFC’s final playoff team. This game has Gus Johnson Special written all over it (close game, good amount of offense, field goal to decide it). If you are a Gus Johnson fan like me, you may want to check out this hilarious parody (LINK HERE, if it has moved, look for the December 11th section).
Pick: Browns, Bills cover

Green Bay Packers (11-2)(-9) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-10)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
What can you possibly say about this game? Too bad Gus Johnson can’t do this game to liven it up a little.
Pick: Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-4)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
These two teams will probably meet again the first weekend in January. Neither really has much to play for. Pittsburgh has basically wrapped their division up since they own the tie-breaker over Cleveland. Jacksonville can’t catch up to Indianapolis, and it’s unlikely that they’ll be passed by since they too own a tie-breaker over Cleveland. While this game looks good on paper, neither team will show much because they know they’ll have to play again in the postseason. Ben Roethlisberger looks like he’ll be starting, so I’ll just go with the home team.
Pick: Steelers

New York Jets (3-10) vs. New England Patriots (13-0)(-22)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
How many times are we expected to care what happens when Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini shake hands after a game? I think it’s embarrassing for the NFL that the biggest news around this game is actually the postgame handshake between two vial coaches.
Pick: Patriots

Seattle Seahawks (9-4)(-8) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-8)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
This game has that upset smell to it. The Seahawks will be traveling across country a week after winning a big division game to clinch their division. They’re not catching Green Bay for the second bye week, so they are going to start resting some starters and slacking off a little.
Pick: Seahawks, Panthers cover

Tennessee Titans (7-6)(-3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-9)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
The Titans had my upset special all sown up and were ready to get out of town with a win over San Diego. That was until Norv Turner, after 12-and-a-half games, finally decided to start running the ball.
Pick: Titans

Indianapolis Colts (11-2)(-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-9)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
The Raiders took a huge step backwards in Green Bay this past weekend. There were starting to resemble a real NFL team until getting blown out in every possible way. I still like the Raiders to be right around .500 next season, but they probably won’t win again in 2007.
Pick: Colts

Detroit Lions (6-7) vs. San Diego Chargers (8-5)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Jon Kitna’s prediction of 10 wins this season was a good idea in theory. But before he made it, he should have stopped and realized what team he was playing for.
Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) vs. Dallas Cowboys (12-1)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
As usual, my policy for NFC East games dictates that I don’t care who wins as long as there are a sufficient number of injuries.
Pick: Cowboys

MONDAY

Chicago Bears (5-8) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)(-10)
8:30 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Before we anoint Adrian Peterson as the next Walter Payton, let’s look as his line last week. He had 14 carries for 3 yards. Even worse, he was playing the 49ers defense. Yikes.
Pick: Vikings, Bears cover